Seasonal Patterns of Mpox Index Cases, Africa, 1970-2021.

Across 133 confirmed mpox zoonotic index cases reported during 1970-2021 in Africa, cases occurred year-round near the equator, where climate is consistent. However, in tropical regions of the northern hemisphere under a dry/wet season cycle, cases occurred seasonally. Our findings further support the seasonality of mpox zoonotic transmission risk.

Geographical coverage of SARS-CoV-2 screening and care centers in Haiti: what do national surveillance data tell us?

BACKGROUND: In Haiti, reported incidence and mortality rates for COVID-19 were lower than expected. We aimed to analyze factors at communal and individual level that might lead to an underestimation of the true burden of the COVID-19 epidemic in Haiti during its first two years. METHODS: We analyzed national COVID-19 surveillance data from March 2020 to December 2021, to describe the epidemic using cluster detection, time series, and cartographic approach. We performed multivariate Quasi-Poisson regression models to determine socioeconomic factors associated with incidence and mortality. We performed a mixed-effect logistic regression model to determine individual factors associated with the infection. RESULTS: Among the 140 communes of Haiti, 57 (40.7%) had a COVID-19 screening center, and the incidence was six times higher in these than in those without. Only 22 (15.7%) communes had a COVID-19 care center, and the mortality was five times higher in these than in those without. All the richest communes had a COVID-19 screening center while only 30.8% of the poorest had one. And 75% of the richest communes had a COVID-19 care center while only 15.4% of the poorest had one. Having more than three healthcare workers per 1000 population in the commune was positively associated with the incidence (SIR: 3.31; IC95%: 2.50, 3.93) and the mortality (SMR: 2.73; IC95%: 2.03, 3.66). At the individual level, male gender (adjusted OR: 1.11; IC95%: 1.01, 1.22), age with a progressive increase of the risk compared to youngers, and having Haitian nationality only (adjusted OR:2.07; IC95%: 1.53, 2.82) were associated with the infection. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the weakness of SARS-CoV-2 screening and care system in Haiti, particularly in the poorest communes, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths were probably greatly underestimated.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among Beninese pregnant women in the third year of the pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women are a vulnerable population to COVID-19 given an increased susceptibility to severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and pregnancy complications. However, few SARS-CoV-2 serological surveys have been performed among this population to assess the extent of the infection in sub-Saharan countries. The objectives of this study were to determine SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among Beninese pregnant women, to identify spatial seropositivity clusters and to analyse factors associated with the infection. METHODS: A cross-sectional study including women in their third trimester of pregnancy attending the antenatal care (ANC) clinics at Allada (south Benin) and Natitingou (north Benin) was conducted. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for detection of IgG/IgM against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein were performed using capillary blood. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and associations between SARS-CoV-2 serostatus and maternal characteristics were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. Spatial analyses were performed using the spatial scan statistics to identify spatial clusters of SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: A total of 861 pregnant women were enrolled between May 4 and June 29, 2022. 58/861 (6.7%) participants reported having received COVID-19 vaccine. None of the participants had been diagnosed with COVID-19 during their pregnancy. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were detected in 607/802 (75.7%; 95% CI 72.56%-78.62%) of unvaccinated participants. Several urban and rural spatial clusters of SARS-CoV-2 cases were identified in Allada and one urban spatial cluster was identified in Natitingou. Unvaccinated participants from Allada with at least one previous morbidity were at a three-times higher risk of presenting SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (OR = 2.89; 95%CI 1.19%-7.00%). CONCLUSION: Three out of four pregnant women had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, suggesting a high virus circulation among pregnant women in Benin, while COVID-19 vaccination coverage was low. Pregnant women with comorbidities may be at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This population should be prioritized for COVID-19 diagnosis and vaccination in order to prevent its deleterious effects. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT06170320 (retrospectively registered on December 21, 2023).

Household living conditions and individual behaviours associated with malaria risk: a community-based survey in the Limpopo River Valley, 2020, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, implementation of multiple malaria control strategies in most countries has largely contributed to advance the global malaria elimination agenda. Nevertheless, in some regions, seasonal epidemics may adversely affect the health of local populations. In South Africa, Plasmodium falciparum malaria is still present, with the Vhembe District experiencing an incidence rate of 3.79 cases/1000 person-years in 2018, particularly in the Limpopo River Valley, bordering Zimbabwe. To elucidate the complexity of the mechanisms involved in local regular malaria outbreaks, a community-based survey was implemented in 2020 that focused on the relationship between housing conditions and malaria risky behaviours. METHODS: The community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted among the population of three study sites in the Vhembe District, which were selected based on malaria incidence rate, social and health characteristics of inhabitants. The household survey used a random sampling strategy, where data were collected through face-to-face questionnaires and field notes; to described the housing conditions (housing questionnaire), and focus on individual behaviours of household members. Statistical analyses were performed combining hierarchical classifications and logistic regressions. RESULTS: In this study, 398 households were described, covering a population of 1681 inhabitants of all ages, and 439 adults who participated in community-based survey. The analysis of situations at risk of malaria showed that the influence of contextual factors, particularly those defined by the type of habitat, was significant. Housing conditions and poor living environments were factors of malaria exposure and history, regardless of site of investigation, individual preventive behaviours and personal characteristics of inhabitants. Multivariate models showed that, considering all personal characteristics or behaviours of inhabitants, housing conditions such as overcrowding pressures were significantly associated with individual malaria risk. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed the overwhelming weight of social and contextual factors on risk situations. Considering the Fundamental Causes Theory, malaria control policies based on health behaviour prevention, should reinforce access to care or promoting health education actions. Overarching economic development interventions in targeted geographical areas and populations have to be implemented, so that malaria control and elimination strategies can be efficiently and effectively managed.

Delineating and Analyzing Locality-Level Determinants of Cholera, Haiti.

Centre Department, Haiti, was the origin of a major cholera epidemic during 2010-2019. Although no fine-scale spatial delineation is officially available, we aimed to analyze determinants of cholera at the local level and identify priority localities in need of interventions. After estimating the likely boundaries of 1,730 localities by using Voronoi polygons, we mapped 5,322 suspected cholera cases reported during January 2015-September 2016 by locality alongside environmental and socioeconomic variables. A hierarchical clustering on principal components highlighted 2 classes with high cholera risk: localities close to rivers and unimproved water sources (standardized incidence ratio 1.71, 95% CI 1.02-2.87; p = 0.04) and urban localities with markets (standardized incidence ratio 1.69, 95% CI 1.25-2.29; p = 0.0006). Our analyses helped identify and characterize areas where efforts should be focused to reduce vulnerability to cholera and other waterborne diseases; these methods could be used in other contexts.

Key role of pediatricians and disease for influenza vaccination in children with high-risk chronic diseases.

Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for children with chronic diseases. Studies on influenza vaccines, following controversies related to the 2009 H1N1 influenza, are scarce in Europe. Our aim was to evaluate the influenza vaccination coverage in such children in a French tertiary hospital. Secondary objectives were the evaluation of the influenza vaccination coverage trend and the identification of factors influencing the vaccination status. A prospective and descriptive study by questionnaire was performed at the end of 2017 in 402 French hospital outpatients with various underlying chronic diseases eligible to the influenza vaccination. The 2016-2017 vaccination coverage was 46.5%. Figures of 75% or greater were only found in patients with cystic fibrosis and sickle cell disease. CART analysis identified vaccination in the previous year, medical recommendation for vaccination, and maternal influenza vaccination as a child's decisive factors for being vaccinated.Conclusion: Influenza vaccination coverage remains insufficient in children receiving hospital follow-up for chronic diseases. Its implementation clearly depends on pediatricians' recommendation to vaccinate and on the type of chronic disease. What is Known: • Despite health policy recommendations, the rate of annual influenza vaccination in children with chronic diseases is low What is New: • Influenza vaccination coverage depends on the type of chronic disease and on the pediatricians' counseling to vaccine.

Spatio-temporal variation of malaria hotspots in Central Senegal, 2008-2012.

BACKGROUND: In malaria endemic areas, identifying spatio-temporal hotspots is becoming an important element of innovative control strategies targeting transmission bottlenecks. The aim of this work was to describe the spatio-temporal variation of malaria hotspots in central Senegal and to identify the meteorological, environmental, and preventive factors that influence this variation. METHODS: This study analysed the weekly incidence of malaria cases recorded from 2008 to 2012 in 575 villages of central Senegal (total population approximately 500,000) as part of a trial of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). Data on weekly rainfall and annual vegetation types were obtained for each village through remote sensing. The time series of weekly malaria incidence for the entire study area was divided into periods of high and low transmission using change-point analysis. Malaria hotspots were detected during each transmission period with the SaTScan method. The effects of rainfall, vegetation type, and SMC intervention on the spatio-temporal variation of malaria hotspots were assessed using a General Additive Mixed Model. RESULTS: The malaria incidence for the entire area varied between 0 and 115.34 cases/100,000 person weeks during the study period. During high transmission periods, the cumulative malaria incidence rate varied between 7.53 and 38.1 cases/100,000 person-weeks, and the number of hotspot villages varied between 62 and 147. During low transmission periods, the cumulative malaria incidence rate varied between 0.83 and 2.73 cases/100,000 person-weeks, and the number of hotspot villages varied between 10 and 43. Villages with SMC were less likely to be hotspots (OR = 0.48, IC95%: 0.33-0.68). The association between rainfall and hotspot status was non-linear and depended on both vegetation type and amount of rainfall. The association between village location in the study area and hotspot status was also shown. CONCLUSION: In our study, malaria hotspots varied over space and time according to a combination of meteorological, environmental, and preventive factors. By taking into consideration the environmental and meteorological characteristics common to all hotspots, monitoring of these factors could lead targeted public health interventions at the local level. Moreover, spatial hotspots and foci of malaria persisting during LTPs need to be further addressed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The data used in this work were obtained from a clinical trial registered on July 10, 2008 at www.clinicaltrials.gov under NCT00712374.

"Spatial heterogeneity of environmental risk in randomized prevention trials: consequences and modeling".

BACKGROUND: In the context of environmentally influenced communicable diseases, proximity to environmental sources results in spatial heterogeneity of risk, which is sometimes difficult to measure in the field. Most prevention trials use randomization to achieve comparability between groups, thus failing to account for heterogeneity. This study aimed to determine under what conditions spatial heterogeneity biases the results of randomized prevention trials, and to compare different approaches to modeling this heterogeneity. METHODS: Using the example of a malaria prevention trial, simulations were performed to quantify the impact of spatial heterogeneity and to compare different models. Simulated scenarios combined variation in baseline risk, a continuous protective factor (age), a non-related factor (sex), and a binary protective factor (preventive treatment). Simulated spatial heterogeneity scenarios combined variation in breeding site density and effect, location, and population density. The performances of the following five statistical models were assessed: a non-spatial Cox Proportional Hazard (Cox-PH) model and four models accounting for spatial heterogeneity-i.e., a Data-Generating Model, a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), and two Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) models, one modeling survival time and the other the number of events. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the SPDE models with an Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation algorithm. For each factor (age, sex, treatment), model performances were assessed by quantifying parameter estimation biases, mean square errors, confidence interval coverage rates (CRs), and significance rates. The four models were applied to data from a malaria transmission blocking vaccine candidate. RESULTS: The level of baseline risk did not affect our estimates. However, with a high breeding site density and a strong breeding site effect, the Cox-PH and GAM models underestimated the age and treatment effects (but not the sex effect) with a low CR. When population density was low, the Cox-SPDE model slightly overestimated the effect of related factors (age, treatment). The two SPDE models corrected the impact of spatial heterogeneity, thus providing the best estimates. CONCLUSION: Our results show that when spatial heterogeneity is important but not measured, randomization alone cannot achieve comparability between groups. In such cases, prevention trials should model spatial heterogeneity with an adapted method. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The dataset used for the application example was extracted from Vaccine Trial #NCT02334462 ( ClinicalTrials.gov registry).

Socioeconomic and environmental factors associated with malaria hotspots in the Nanoro demographic surveillance area, Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: With limited resources and spatio-temporal heterogeneity of malaria in developing countries, it is still difficult to assess the real impact of socioeconomic and environmental factors in order to set up targeted campaigns against malaria at an accurate scale. Our goal was to detect malaria hotspots in rural area and assess the extent to which household socioeconomic status and meteorological recordings may explain the occurrence and evolution of these hotspots. METHODS: Data on malaria cases from 2010 to 2014 and on socioeconomic and meteorological factors were acquired from four health facilities within the Nanoro demographic surveillance area. Statistical cross correlation was used to quantify the temporal association between weekly malaria incidence and meteorological factors. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed and restricted to each transmission period using Kulldorff's elliptic spatial scan statistic. Univariate and multivariable analysis were used to assess the principal socioeconomic and meteorological determinants of malaria hotspots using a Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) approach. RESULTS: Rainfall and temperature were positively and significantly associated with malaria incidence, with a lag time of 9 and 14 weeks, respectively. Spatial analysis showed a spatial autocorrelation of malaria incidence and significant hotspots which was relatively stable throughout the study period. Furthermore, low socioeconomic status households were strongly associated with malaria hotspots (aOR = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.40). CONCLUSION: These fine-scale findings highlight a relatively stable spatio-temporal pattern of malaria risk and indicate that social and environmental factors play an important role in malaria incidence. Integrating data on these factors into existing malaria struggle tools would help in the development of sustainable bottleneck strategies adapted to the local context for malaria control.

Ecologic Features of Plague Outbreak Areas, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2004-2014.

During 2004-2014, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared 54% of plague cases worldwide. Using national data, we characterized the epidemiology of human plague in DRC for this period. All 4,630 suspected human plague cases and 349 deaths recorded in DRC came from Orientale Province. Pneumonic plague cases (8.8% of total) occurred during 2 major outbreaks in mining camps in the equatorial forest, and some limited outbreaks occurred in the Ituri highlands. Epidemics originated in 5 health zones clustered in Ituri, where sporadic bubonic cases were recorded throughout every year. Classification and regression tree characterized this cluster by the dominance of ecosystem 40 (mountain tropical climate). In conclusion, a small, stable, endemic focus of plague in the highlands of the Ituri tropical region persisted, acting as a source of outbreaks in DRC.

Spatiotemporal analysis of malaria for new sustainable control strategies.

Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous through time and space, and mapping of this heterogeneity is necessary to better understand local dynamics. New targeted policies are needed as numerous countries have placed malaria elimination on their public health agenda for 2030. In this context, developing national health information systems and collecting information at sufficiently precise scales (at least at the 'week' and 'village' scales), is of strategic importance. In a recent study, Macharia et al. relied on extensive prevalence survey data to develop malaria risk maps for Kenya, including uncertainty assessments specifically designed to support decision-making by the National Malaria Control Program. Targeting local persistent transmission or epidemiologic changes is necessary to maintain efficient control, but also to deploy sustainable elimination strategies against identified transmission bottlenecks such as the reservoir of subpatent infections. Such decision-making tools are paramount to allocate resources based on sound scientific evidence and public health priorities.Please see related article: https://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12936-018-2489-9 .

Another challenge in malaria elimination efforts: the increase of malaria among adults after the implementation of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in Dielmo, Senegal.

BACKGROUND: The widespread use of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) has led to an impressive decrease of malaria burden these recent years in Africa. However, some new challenges about the future of malaria control and elimination efforts have appeared. Among these challenges, the loss and-or-the only partial acquisition of anti-Plasmodium immunity among exposed populations lead to an increase of the age at risk of malaria. Indeed, older children and adults may become more vulnerable to malaria. Studies about malaria among adults seemed, therefore, important. This study investigated the evolution of malaria morbidity in adults of Dielmo (Senegal) before and after the implementation of LLINs. METHODS: From August 2007 to July 2015, a longitudinal study involving adults above 15 years old was carried out in Dielmo, where ACT was introduced in June 2006 and LLINs in July 2008. In July 2011 and August 2014, all LLINs were renewed. The presence of each person in the village was monitored daily. Thick smears associated lately with rapid diagnosis test (RDT) and quantitative polymerase chain reaction methods were performed for all cases of fever. To assess malaria prevalence, thick smears and RDT were performed quarterly in all individuals. Malaria risks factors were assessed using negative binomial regression mixed-model based on person-trimester observations. RESULTS: Malaria morbidity among adults has decreased significantly since the implementation of LLINs in Dielmo. However, malaria resurgences have occurred twice during the 7 years of LLINs use. During these malaria resurgences, the overall incidence of malaria among adults was similar to the incidence during the year before the implementation of LLINs (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% CI] aIRR = 1.04 [0.66-1.64], p = 0.88 and aIRR = 1.16 [0.74-1.80], p = 0.52 during the first and the second malaria resurgence period, respectively). Younger adults were most vulnerable during these malaria upsurges as the incidence of malaria increased significantly among them (χ2 = 5.2; p = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Malaria among adults especially younger adults should deserve more attention in the areas where malaria was previously endemic as they became vulnerable probably because of the partial acquisition and-or-the loss of anti-Plasmodium relative immunity and the non regular use of LLINs.

Spatio-temporal dynamic of malaria in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, 2011-2015.

BACKGROUND: Given the scarcity of resources in developing countries, malaria treatment requires new strategies that target specific populations, time periods and geographical areas. While the spatial pattern of malaria transmission is known to vary depending on local conditions, its temporal evolution has yet to be evaluated. The aim of this study was to determine the spatio-temporal dynamic of malaria in the central region of Burkina Faso, taking into account meteorological factors. METHODS: Drawing on national databases, 101 health areas were studied from 2011 to 2015, together with weekly meteorological data (temperature, number of rain events, rainfall, humidity, wind speed). Meteorological factors were investigated using a principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce dimensions and avoid collinearities. The Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was used to test the stationarity of the time series. The impact of meteorological factors on malaria incidence was measured with a general additive model. A change-point analysis was performed to detect malaria transmission periods. For each transmission period, malaria incidence was mapped and hotspots were identified using spatial cluster detection. RESULTS: Malaria incidence never went below 13.7 cases/10,000 person-weeks. The first and second PCA components (constituted by rain/humidity and temperatures, respectively) were correlated with malaria incidence with a lag of 2 weeks. The impact of temperature was significantly non-linear: malaria incidence increased with temperature but declined sharply with high temperature. A significant positive linear trend was found for the entire time period. Three transmission periods were detected: low (16.8-29.9 cases/10,000 person-weeks), high (51.7-84.8 cases/10,000 person-weeks), and intermediate (26.7-32.2 cases/10,000 person-weeks). The location of clusters identified as high risk varied little across transmission periods. CONCLUSION: This study highlighted the spatial variability and relative temporal stability of malaria incidence around the capital Ouagadougou, in the central region of Burkina Faso. Despite increasing efforts in fighting the disease, malaria incidence remained high and increased over the period of study. Hotspots, particularly those detected for low transmission periods, should be investigated further to uncover the local environmental and behavioural factors of transmission, and hence to allow for the development of better targeted control strategies.

Stent-assisted coiling of intracranial aneurysms using LEO stents: long-term follow-up in 153 patients.

PURPOSE: Coiling associated with placement of a self-expandable intracranial stent has improved the treatment of intracranial wide-necked aneurysms. Little is known, however, about the durability of this treatment. The purpose of this report is to present our experience with the LEO stent and to evaluate the complications, effectiveness, and long-term results of this technique. METHODS: We analyzed the records of 155 intracranial unruptured aneurysms that were treated by stent-assisted coiling with a LEO stent between 2008 and 2012. Procedural, early post-procedural, and delayed complications were recorded. Clinical and angiographic follow-up of patients was conducted over a period of at least 36 months. RESULTS: No procedural mortality was observed. One-month morbidity was observed in 14 out of 153 patients (9,15%). One hundred thirty-eight patients (with 140 aneurysms) had clinical and angiographic follow-up for more than 36 months. No aneurysm rupture was observed during follow-up. Four patients presented an intra-stent stenosis at 8 months, and 6 patients who had an early recurrence were retreated. Final results showed 85% complete occlusion, 13% neck remnants, and 2% stable incomplete occlusion. CONCLUSION: Stent-assisted coiling with the LEO stent is a safe and effective treatment for unruptured intracranial aneurysms. The long-term clinical outcomes with the LEO stent are excellent with a high rate of complete occlusion that is stable over time.

Temporal dynamic of malaria in a suburban area along the Niger River.

BACKGROUND: Even if rainfall and temperature are factors classically associated to malaria, little is known about other meteorological factors, their variability and combinations related to malaria, in association with river height variations. Furthermore, in suburban area, urbanization and growing population density should be assessed in relation to these environmental factors. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of combined environmental, meteorological and hydrological factors on malaria incidence through time in the context of urbanization. METHODS: Population observational data were prospectively collected. Clinical malaria was defined as the presence of parasites in addition to clinical symptoms. Meteorological and hydrological factors were measured daily. For each factors variation indices were estimated. Urbanization was yearly estimated assessing satellite imaging and field investigations. Principal component analysis was used for dimension reduction and factors combination. Lags between malaria incidences and the main components were assessed by cross-correlation functions. Generalized additive model was used to assess relative impact of different environmental components, taking into account lags, and modelling non-linear relationships. Change-point analysis was used to determine transmission periods within years. RESULTS: Malaria incidences were dominated by annual periodicity and varied through time without modification of the dynamic, with no impact of the urbanization. The main meteorological factor associated with malaria was a combination of evaporation, humidity and rainfall, with a lag of 3 months. The relationship between combined temperature factors showed a linear impact until reaching high temperatures limiting malaria incidence, with a lag 3.25 months. Height and variation of the river were related to malaria incidence (respectively 6 week lag and no lag). CONCLUSIONS: The study emphasizes no decreasing trend of malaria incidence despite accurate access to care and control strategies in accordance to international recommendations. Furthermore, no decreasing trend was showed despite the urbanization of the area. Malaria transmission remain increase 3 months after the beginning of the dry season. Addition to evaporation versus humidity/rainfall, nonlinear relationship for temperature and river height and variations have to be taken into account when implementing malaria control programmes.

Air pollution and children's asthma-related emergency hospital visits in southeastern France.

Children's asthma is multifactorial. Environmental factors like air pollution exposure, meteorological conditions, allergens, and viral infections are strongly implicated. However, place of residence has rarely been investigated in connection with these factors. The primary aim of our study was to measure the impact of particulate matter (PM), assessed close to the children's homes, on asthma-related pediatric emergency hospital visits within the Bouches-du-Rhône area in 2013. In a nested case-control study on 3- to 18-year-old children, each control was randomly matched on the emergency room visit day, regardless of hospital. Each asthmatic child was compared to 15 controls. PM10 and PM2.5, meteorological conditions, pollens, and viral data were linked to ZIP code and analyzed by purpose of emergency visit. A total of 68,897 visits were recorded in children, 1182 concerning asthma. Short-term exposure to PM10 measured near children's homes was associated with excess risk of asthma emergency visits (adjusted odds ratio 1.02 (95% CI 1.01-1.04; p = 0.02)). Male gender, young age, and temperature were other risk factors. Conversely, wind speed was a protective factor. CONCLUSION: PM10 and certain meteorological conditions near children's homes increased the risk of emergency asthma-related hospital visits in 3- to 18-year-old children in Bouches-du-Rhône. What is Known: • A relationship between short-term exposure to air pollution and increase in emergency room visits or hospital admissions as a result of increased pollution levels has already been demonstrated. What is New: • This study confirms these results but took into account confounding factors (viral data, pollens, and meteorological conditions) and is based on estimated pollution levels assessed close to the children's homes, rather than those recorded at the hospital. • The study area, the Mediterranean, is favorable to creation of secondary pollutants in these sunny and dry seasons.

Mathematical models for predicting human mobility in the context of infectious disease spread: introducing the impedance model.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models of human mobility have demonstrated a great potential for infectious disease epidemiology in contexts of data scarcity. While the commonly used gravity model involves parameter tuning and is thus difficult to implement without reference data, the more recent radiation model based on population densities is parameter-free, but biased. In this study we introduce the new impedance model, by analogy with electricity. Previous research has compared models on the basis of a few specific available spatial patterns. In this study, we use a systematic simulation-based approach to assess the performances. METHODS: Five hundred spatial patterns were generated using various area sizes and location coordinates. Model performances were evaluated based on these patterns. For simulated data, comparison measures were average root mean square error (aRMSE) and bias criteria. Modeling of the 2010 Haiti cholera epidemic with a basic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) framework allowed an empirical evaluation through assessing the goodness-of-fit of the observed epidemic curve. RESULTS: The new, parameter-free impedance model outperformed previous models on simulated data according to average aRMSE and bias criteria. The impedance model achieved better performances with heterogeneous population densities and small destination populations. As a proof of concept, the basic compartmental SIR framework was used to confirm the results obtained with the impedance model in predicting the spread of cholera in Haiti in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed new impedance model provides accurate estimations of human mobility, especially when the population distribution is highly heterogeneous. This model can therefore help to achieve more accurate predictions of disease spread in the context of an epidemic.

Impact of socioeconomic inequalities on geographic disparities in cancer incidence: comparison of methods for spatial disease mapping.

BACKGROUND: The reliability of spatial statistics is often put into question because real spatial variations may not be found, especially in heterogeneous areas. Our objective was to compare empirically different cluster detection methods. We assessed their ability to find spatial clusters of cancer cases and evaluated the impact of the socioeconomic status (e.g., the Townsend index) on cancer incidence. METHODS: Moran's I, the empirical Bayes index (EBI), and Potthoff-Whittinghill test were used to investigate the general clustering. The local cluster detection methods were: i) the spatial oblique decision tree (SpODT); ii) the spatial scan statistic of Kulldorff (SaTScan); and, iii) the hierarchical Bayesian spatial modeling (HBSM) in a univariate and multivariate setting. These methods were used with and without introducing the Townsend index of socioeconomic deprivation known to be related to the distribution of cancer incidence. Incidence data stemmed from the Cancer Registry of Isère and were limited to prostate, lung, colon-rectum, and bladder cancers diagnosed between 1999 and 2007 in men only. RESULTS: The study found a spatial heterogeneity (p < 0.01) and an autocorrelation for prostate (EBI = 0.02; p = 0.001), lung (EBI = 0.01; p = 0.019) and bladder (EBI = 0.007; p = 0.05) cancers. After introduction of the Townsend index, SaTScan failed in finding cancers clusters. This introduction changed the results obtained with the other methods. SpODT identified five spatial classes (p < 0.05): four in the Western and one in the Northern parts of the study area (standardized incidence ratios: 1.68, 1.39, 1.14, 1.12, and 1.16, respectively). In the univariate setting, the Bayesian smoothing method found the same clusters as the two other methods (RR >1.2). The multivariate HBSM found a spatial correlation between lung and bladder cancers (r = 0.6). CONCLUSIONS: In spatial analysis of cancer incidence, SpODT and HBSM may be used not only for cluster detection but also for searching for confounding or etiological factors in small areas. Moreover, the multivariate HBSM offers a flexible and meaningful modeling of spatial variations; it shows plausible previously unknown associations between various cancers.

The Very Long-Term Outcome of Radiosurgery for Classical Trigeminal Neuralgia.

BACKGROUND: Radiosurgery is one of the neurosurgical alternatives for intractable trigeminal neuralgia (TN). OBJECTIVE: Although acceptable short-/mid-term outcomes have been reported, long-term results have not been well documented. METHODS: We report the long-term results in 130 patients who underwent radiosurgery for classical TN and were subsequently monitored through at least 7 years (median = 9.9, range = 7-14.5) of follow-up. RESULTS: The median age was 66.5 years. A total of 122 patients (93.8%) became pain free (median delay = 15 days) after the radiosurgery procedure (Barrow Neurological Institute, BNI class I-IIIa). The probability of remaining pain free without medication at 3, 5, 7 and 10 years was 77.9, 73.8, 68 and 51.5%, respectively. Fifty-six patients (45.9%) who were initially pain free experienced recurrent pain (median delay = 73.1 months). However, at 10 years, of the initial 130 patients, 67.7% were free of any recurrence requiring new surgery (BNI class I-IIIa). The new hypesthesia rate was 20.8% (median delay of onset = 12 months), and only 1 patient (0.8%) reported very bothersome hypesthesia. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term results were comparable to those from our general series (recently published), and the high probability of long-lasting pain relief and rarity of consequential complications of radiosurgery may suggest it as a first- and/or second-line treatment for classical, drug-resistant TN.

Comparison of Air Impaction and Electrostatic Dust Collector Sampling Methods to Assess Airborne Fungal Contamination in Public Buildings.

Many ailments can be linked to exposure to indoor airborne fungus. However, obtaining a precise measurement of airborne fungal levels is complicated partly due to indoor air fluctuations and non-standardized techniques. Electrostatic dust collector (EDC) sampling devices have been used to measure a wide range of airborne analytes, including endotoxins, allergens, ß-glucans, and microbial DNA in various indoor environments. In contrast, viable mold contamination has only been assessed in highly contaminated environments such as farms and archive buildings. This study aimed to assess the use of EDCs, compared with repeated air-impactor measurements, to assess airborne viable fungal flora in moderately contaminated indoor environments. Indoor airborne fungal flora was cultured from EDCs and daily air-impaction samples collected in an office building and a daycare center. The quantitative fungal measurements obtained using a single EDC significantly correlated with the cumulative measurement of nine daily air impactions. Both methods enabled the assessment of fungal exposure, although a few differences were observed between the detected fungal species and the relative quantity of each species. EDCs were also used over a 32-month period to monitor indoor airborne fungal flora in a hospital office building, which enabled us to assess the impact of outdoor events (e.g. ground excavations) on the fungal flora levels on the indoor environment. In conclusion, EDC-based measurements provided a relatively accurate profile of the viable airborne flora present during a sampling period. In particular, EDCs provided a more representative assessment of fungal levels compared with single air-impactor sampling. The EDC technique is also simpler than performing repetitive air-impaction measures over the course of several consecutive days. EDC is a versatile tool for collecting airborne samples and was efficient for measuring mold levels in indoor environments.