Novel MAGIC composite scores using both clinical symptoms and biomarkers best predict treatment outcomes of acute GVHD.

Acute graft-vs-host disease (GVHD) grading systems that use only clinical symptoms at treatment initiation such as Minnesota risk identify standard and high risk categories but lack a low risk category suitable to minimize immunosuppressive strategies. We developed a new grading system that includes a low risk stratum based on clinical symptoms alone and determined whether the incorporation of biomarkers would improve the model's prognostic accuracy. We randomly divided 1863 patients in the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) who were treated for GVHD into training and validation cohorts. Patients in the training cohort were divided into 14 groups based on similarity of clinical symptoms and similar NRM; we used a classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm to create three Manhattan risk groups that produced a significantly higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 6-month NRM than the Minnesota risk classification (0.69 vs. 0.64, P=0.009) in the validation cohort. We integrated serum GVHD biomarker scores with Manhattan risk using patients with available serum samples and again used a CART algorithm to establish three MAGIC composite scores that significantly improved prediction of NRM compared to Manhattan risk (AUC, 0.76 vs. 0.70, P=0.010). Each increase in MAGIC composite score also corresponded to a significant decrease in day 28 treatment response (80% vs. 63% vs. 30%, P<0.001). We conclude that the MAGIC composite score more accurately predicts response to therapy and long term outcomes than systems based on clinical symptoms alone and may help guide clinical decisions and trial design.

Effective treatment of low-risk acute GVHD with itacitinib monotherapy.

The standard primary treatment for acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) requires prolonged, high-dose systemic corticosteroids (SCSs) that delay reconstitution of the immune system. We used validated clinical and biomarker staging criteria to identify a group of patients with low-risk (LR) GVHD that is very likely to respond to SCS. We hypothesized that itacitinib, a selective JAK1 inhibitor, would effectively treat LR GVHD without SCS. We treated 70 patients with LR GVHD in a multicenter, phase 2 trial (NCT03846479) with 28 days of itacitinib 200 mg/d (responders could receive a second 28-day cycle), and we compared their outcomes to those of 140 contemporaneous, matched control patients treated with SCSs. More patients responded to itacitinib within 7 days (81% vs 66%, P = .02), and response rates at day 28 were very high for both groups (89% vs 86%, P = .67), with few symptomatic flares (11% vs 12%, P = .88). Fewer itacitinib-treated patients developed a serious infection within 90 days (27% vs 42%, P = .04) due to fewer viral and fungal infections. Grade ≥3 cytopenias were similar between groups except for less severe leukopenia with itacitinib (16% vs 31%, P = .02). No other grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in >10% of itacitinib-treated patients. There were no significant differences between groups at 1 year for nonrelapse mortality (4% vs 11%, P = .21), relapse (18% vs 21%, P = .64), chronic GVHD (28% vs 33%, P = .33), or survival (88% vs 80%, P = .11). Itacitinib monotherapy seems to be a safe and effective alternative to SCS treatment for LR GVHD and deserves further investigation.

A Day 14 Endpoint for Acute GVHD Clinical Trials.

The overall response rate (ORR) 28 days after treatment has been adopted as the primary endpoint for clinical trials of acute graft versus host disease (GVHD). However, physicians often need to modify immunosuppression earlier than day (D) 28, and non-relapse mortality (NRM) does not always correlate with ORR at D28. We studied 1144 patients that received systemic treatment for GVHD in the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) and divided them into a training set (n=764) and a validation set (n=380). We used a recursive partitioning algorithm to create a Mount Sinai model that classifies patients into favorable or unfavorable groups that predicted 12 month NRM according to overall GVHD grade at both onset and D14. In the Mount Sinai model grade II GVHD at D14 was unfavorable for grade III/IV GVHD at onset and predicted NRM as well as the D28 standard response model. The MAGIC algorithm probability (MAP) is a validated score that combines the serum concentrations of suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (ST2) and regenerating islet-derived 3-alpha (REG3α) to predict NRM. Inclusion of the D14 MAP biomarker score with the D14 Mount Sinai model created three distinct groups (good, intermediate, poor) with strikingly different NRM (8%, 35%, 76% respectively). This D14 MAGIC model displayed better AUC, sensitivity, positive and negative predictive value, and net benefit in decision curve analysis compared to the D28 standard response model. We conclude that this D14 MAGIC model could be useful in therapeutic decisions and may offer an improved endpoint for clinical trials of acute GVHD treatment.

Flares of acute graft-versus-host disease: a Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium analysis.

ABSTRACT: The absence of a standardized definition for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) flares and data on its clinical course are significant concerns. We retrospectively evaluated 968 patients across 23 Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) transplant centers who achieved complete response (CR) or very good partial response (VGPR) within 4 weeks of treatment. The cumulative incidence of flares within 6 months was 22%, and flares were associated with a higher risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.19-7.36; P < .001). Flares were more severe (grades 3/4, 41% vs 16%; P < .001) and had more frequent lower gastrointestinal (LGI) involvement (55% vs 32%; P < .001) than the initial GVHD. At CR/VGPR, elevated MAGIC biomarkers predicted the future occurrence of a flare, along with its severity and LGI involvement. In multivariate analyses, higher Ann Arbor (AA) biomarker scores at CR/VGPR were significant risk factors for flares (AA2 vs AA1: aHR, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.32-2.48; P = .001]; AA3 vs AA1: aHR, 3.14 [95% CI, 1.98-4.98; P < .001]), as were early response to initial treatment (aHR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.21-2.80; P = .004) and HLA-mismatched unrelated donor (aHR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.00-3.02; P = .049). MAGIC biomarkers also stratified the risk of NRM both at CR/VGPR and at the time of flare. We conclude that GVHD flares are common and carry a significant mortality risk. The occurrence of future flares can be predicted by serum biomarkers that may serve to guide adjustment and discontinuation of immunosuppression.

Amphiregulin, ST2, and REG3α biomarker risk algorithms as predictors of nonrelapse mortality in patients with acute GVHD.

ABSTRACT: Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a major cause of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. Algorithms containing either the gastrointestinal (GI) GVHD biomarker amphiregulin (AREG) or a combination of 2 GI GVHD biomarkers (suppressor of tumorigenicity-2 [ST2] + regenerating family member 3 alpha [REG3α]) when measured at GVHD diagnosis are validated predictors of NRM risk but have never been assessed in the same patients using identical statistical methods. We measured the serum concentrations of ST2, REG3α, and AREG by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at the time of GVHD diagnosis in 715 patients divided by the date of transplantation into training (2004-2015) and validation (2015-2017) cohorts. The training cohort (n = 341) was used to develop algorithms for predicting the probability of 12-month NRM that contained all possible combinations of 1 to 3 biomarkers and a threshold corresponding to the concordance probability was used to stratify patients for the risk of NRM. Algorithms were compared with each other based on several metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, proportion of patients correctly classified, sensitivity, and specificity using only the validation cohort (n = 374). All algorithms were strong discriminators of 12-month NRM, whether or not patients were systemically treated (n = 321). An algorithm containing only ST2 + REG3α had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (0.757), correctly classified the most patients (75%), and more accurately risk-stratified those who developed Minnesota standard-risk GVHD and for patients who received posttransplant cyclophosphamide-based prophylaxis. An algorithm containing only AREG more accurately risk-stratified patients with Minnesota high-risk GVHD. Combining ST2, REG3α, and AREG into a single algorithm did not improve performance.

Reg3α concentrations at day of allogeneic stem cell transplantation predict outcome and correlate with early antibiotic use.

Intestinal microbiome diversity plays an important role in the pathophysiology of acute gastrointestinal (GI) graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and influences the outcome of patients after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (ASCT). We analyzed clinical data and blood samples taken preconditioning and on the day of ASCT from 587 patients from 7 German centers of the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium, dividing them into single-center test (n = 371) and multicenter validation (n = 216) cohorts. Regenerating islet-derived 3α (Reg3α) serum concentration of day 0 correlated with clinical data as well as urinary 3-indoxylsulfate (3-IS) and Clostridiales group XIVa, indicators of intestinal microbiome diversity. High Reg3α concentration at day 0 of ASCT was associated with higher 1-year transplant-related mortality (TRM) in both cohorts (P < .001). Cox regression analysis revealed high Reg3α at day 0 as an independent prognostic factor for 1-year TRM. Multivariable analysis showed an independent correlation of high Reg3α concentrations at day 0 with early systemic antibiotic (AB) treatment. Urinary 3-IS (P = .04) and Clostridiales group XIVa (P = .004) were lower in patients with high vs those with low day 0 Reg3α concentrations. In contrast, Reg3α concentrations before conditioning therapy correlated neither with TRM nor disease or treatment-related parameters. Reg3α, a known biomarker of acute GI GVHD correlates with intestinal dysbiosis, induced by early AB treatment in the period of pretransplant conditioning. Serum concentrations of Reg3α measured on the day of graft infusion are predictive of the risk for TRM of ASCT recipients.

Incidence, clinical presentation, risk factors, outcomes, and biomarkers in de novo late acute GVHD.

Late acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is defined as de novo acute GVHD presenting beyond 100 days after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) without manifestations of chronic GVHD. Data are limited regarding its characteristics, clinical course, and risk factors because of underrecognition and changes in classification. We evaluated 3542 consecutive adult recipients of first HCTs at 24 Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) centers between January 2014 and August 2021 to better describe the clinical evolution and outcomes of late acute GVHD. The cumulative incidence of classic acute GVHD that required systemic treatment was 35.2%, and an additional 5.7% of patients required treatment for late acute GVHD. At the onset of symptoms, late acute GVHD was more severe than classic acute GVHD based on both clinical and MAGIC algorithm probability biomarker parameters and showed a lower overall response rate on day 28. Both clinical and biomarker grading at the time of treatment stratified the risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) in patients with classic and late acute GVHD, respectively, but long-term NRM and overall survival did not differ between patients with classic and late acute GVHD. Advanced age, female-to-male sex mismatch, and the use of reduced intensity conditioning were associated with the development of late acute GVHD, whereas the use of posttransplant cyclophosphamide-based GVHD prevention was protective mainly because of shifts in GVHD timing. Because overall outcomes were comparable, our findings, although not definitive, suggest that similar treatment strategies, including eligibility for clinical trials, based solely on clinical presentation at onset are appropriate.

Phase 2 study of natalizumab plus standard corticosteroid treatment for high-risk acute graft-versus-host disease.

Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract is the main cause of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. Ann Arbor (AA) scores derived from serum biomarkers at onset of GVHD quantify GI crypt damage; AA2/3 scores correlate with resistance to treatment and higher NRM. We conducted a multicenter, phase 2 study using natalizumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody that blocks T-cell trafficking to the GI tract through the α4 subunit of α4ß7 integrin, combined with corticosteroids as primary treatment for patients with new onset AA2/3 GVHD. Seventy-five patients who were evaluable were enrolled and treated; 81% received natalizumab within 2 days of starting corticosteroids. Therapy was well tolerated with no treatment emergent adverse events in >10% of patients. Outcomes for patients treated with natalizumab plus corticosteroids were compared with 150 well-matched controls from the MAGIC database whose primary treatment was corticosteroids alone. There were no significant differences in overall or complete response between patients treated with natalizumab plus corticosteroids and those treated with corticosteroids alone (60% vs 58%; P = .67% and 48% vs 48%; P = 1.0, respectively) including relevant subgroups. There were also no significant differences in NRM or overall survival at 12 months in patients treated with natalizumab plus corticosteroids compared with controls treated with corticosteroids alone (38% vs 39%; P = .80% and 46% vs 54%; P = .48, respectively). In this multicenter biomarker-based phase 2 study, natalizumab combined with corticosteroids failed to improve outcome of patients with newly diagnosed high-risk GVHD. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as # NCT02133924.