Accurate population-based model for individual prediction of colon cancer recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Prediction models are useful tools in the clinical management of colon cancer patients, particularly when estimating the recurrence rate and, thus, the need for adjuvant treatment. However, the most used models (MSKCC, ACCENT) are based on several decades-old patient series from clinical trials, likely overestimating the current risk of recurrence, especially in low-risk groups, as outcomes have improved over time. The aim was to develop and validate an updated model for the prediction of recurrence within 5 years after surgery using routinely collected clinicopathologic variables. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A population-based cohort from the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry of 16,134 stage I-III colon cancer cases was used. A multivariable model was constructed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Three-quarters of the cases were used for model development and one quarter for internal validation. External validation was performed using 12,769 stage II-III patients from the Norwegian Colorectal Cancer Registry. The model was compared to previous nomograms. RESULTS: The nomogram consisted of eight variables: sex, sidedness, pT-substages, number of positive and found lymph nodes, emergency surgery, lymphovascular and perineural invasion. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.78 in the model, 0.76 in internal validation, and 0.70 in external validation. The model calibrated well, especially in low-risk patients, and performed better than existing nomograms in the Swedish registry data. The new nomogram's AUC was equal to that of the MSKCC but the calibration was better. CONCLUSION: The nomogram based on recently operated patients from a population registry predicts recurrence risk more accurately than previous nomograms. It performs best in the low-risk groups where the risk-benefit ratio of adjuvant treatment is debatable and the need for an accurate prediction model is the largest.

Total circulating cell-free DNA as a prognostic biomarker in metastatic colorectal cancer before first-line oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is a heterogeneous disease where prognosis is dependent both on tumor biology and host factors. Total circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) has shown to harbor prognostic information in mCRC, although less is known about the biological correlates of cfDNA levels in this patient group. The primary objective was to evaluate the prognostic value of pretreatment cfDNA in patients receiving the first-line oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy for mCRC, by using a predefined upper limit of normal (ULN) from a cohort of presumed healthy individuals. The secondary objective was to model cfDNA levels as a function of predefined tumor and host factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective post hoc study based on a prospective multicenter phase III trial, the NORDIC-VII study. DNA was purified from 547 plasma samples and cfDNA quantified by a droplet digital PCR assay (B2M, PPIA) with controls for lymphocyte contamination. Main clinical end point was overall survival (OS). RESULTS: cfDNA was quantified in 493 patients, 54 were excluded mainly due to lymphocyte contamination. Median cfDNA level was 7673 alleles/ml (1050-1 645 000) for B2M and 5959 alleles/ml (555-854 167) for PPIA. High cfDNA levels were associated with impaired outcome; median OS of 16.6 months for levels above ULN and 25.9 months for levels below ULN (hazard ratio = 1.83, 95% confidence interval 1.51-2.21, P < 0.001). The result was confirmed in multivariate OS analysis adjusting for established clinicopathological characteristics. A linear regression model predicted cfDNA levels from sum of longest tumor diameters by RECIST, the presence of liver metastases and systemic inflammatory response as measured by interleukin 6 (F(6, 357) = 62.7, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: cfDNA holds promise as a minimally invasive and clinically relevant prognostic biomarker in mCRC before initiating first-line oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy and may be a complex entity associated with tumor burden, liver metastases and systemic inflammatory response. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00145314.

Postoperative complications in relation to overall treatment time in patients with rectal cancer receiving neoadjuvant radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: The optimal timing of surgery for rectal cancer after radiotherapy (RT) is disputed. The Stockholm III trial concluded that it was oncologically safe to delay surgery for 4-8 weeks after short-course RT (SRT), with fewer postoperative complications compared with SRT with surgery within a week. Other studies have indicated that an even shorter interval between RT and surgery (0-3 days) might be beneficial. The aim of this study was to identify the optimal interval to surgery after RT. METHODS: Patients were analysed as treated, in terms of overall treatment time (OTT), the interval from the start of RT until the day of surgery. Patients receiving SRT (5 × 5 Gy) were categorized according to OTT: 7 days (group A), 8-13 days (group B), 5-7 weeks (group C) and 8-13 weeks (group D). Patients receiving long-course RT (25 × 2 Gy) were grouped into those with an OTT of 9-11 weeks (group E) or 12-14 weeks (group F). Outcomes assessed were postoperative complications and early mortality. RESULTS: A total of 810 patients were analysed (group A, 100; group B, 247; group C, 192; group D, 160; group E, 52; group F, 59). Baseline patient characteristics were similar. There were significantly more overall complications in group B than in groups C and D. Adjusted odds ratios, with B as the reference group, were: 0·72 (95 per cent c.i. 0·40 to 1·32; P = 0·289), 0·50 (0·30 to 0·84; P = 0·009) and 0·39 (0·23 to 0·65; P < 0·001) for groups A, C and D respectively. Early mortality was similar in all groups. There were no significant differences between long-course RT groups. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that surgery should optimally be delayed for 4-12 weeks (OTT 5-13 weeks) after SRT.

Expression of dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) and hENT1 predicts survival in pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) tumour expression may provide added value to human equilibrative nucleoside transporter-1 (hENT1) tumour expression in predicting survival following pyrimidine-based adjuvant chemotherapy. METHODS: DPD and hENT1 immunohistochemistry and scoring was completed on tumour cores from 238 patients with pancreatic cancer in the ESPAC-3(v2) trial, randomised to either postoperative gemcitabine or 5-fluorouracil/folinic acid (5FU/FA). RESULTS: DPD tumour expression was associated with reduced overall survival (hazard ratio, HR = 1.73 [95% confidence interval, CI = 1.21-2.49], p = 0.003). This was significant in the 5FU/FA arm (HR = 2.07 [95% CI = 1.22-3.53], p = 0.007), but not in the gemcitabine arm (HR = 1.47 [0.91-3.37], p = 0.119). High hENT1 tumour expression was associated with increased survival in gemcitabine treated (HR = 0.56 [0.38-0.82], p = 0.003) but not in 5FU/FA treated patients (HR = 1.19 [0.80-1.78], p = 0.390). In patients with low hENT1 tumour expression, high DPD tumour expression was associated with a worse median [95% CI] survival in the 5FU/FA arm (9.7 [5.3-30.4] vs 29.2 [19.5-41.9] months, p = 0.002) but not in the gemcitabine arm (14.0 [9.1-15.7] vs. 18.0 [7.6-15.3] months, p = 1.000). The interaction of treatment arm and DPD expression was not significant (p = 0.303), but the interaction of treatment arm and hENT1 expression was (p = 0.009). CONCLUSION: DPD tumour expression was a negative prognostic biomarker. Together with tumour expression of hENT1, DPD tumour expression defined patient subgroups that might benefit from either postoperative 5FU/FA or gemcitabine.

Intratumoural expression of deoxycytidylate deaminase or ribonuceotide reductase subunit M1 expression are not related to survival in patients with resected pancreatic cancer given adjuvant chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Deoxycytidylate deaminase (DCTD) and ribonucleotide reductase subunit M1 (RRM1) are potential prognostic and predictive biomarkers for pyrimidine-based chemotherapy in pancreatic adenocarcinoma. METHODS: Immunohistochemical staining of DCTD and RRM1 was performed on tissue microarrays representing tumour samples from 303 patients in European Study Group for Pancreatic Cancer (ESPAC)-randomised adjuvant trials following pancreatic resection, 272 of whom had received gemcitabine or 5-fluorouracil with folinic acid in ESPAC-3(v2), and 31 patients from the combined ESPAC-3(v1) and ESPAC-1 post-operative pure observational groups. RESULTS: Neither log-rank testing on dichotomised strata or Cox proportional hazard regression showed any relationship of DCTD or RRM1 expression levels to survival overall or by treatment group. CONCLUSIONS: Expression of either DCTD or RRM1 was not prognostic or predictive in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma who had had post-operative chemotherapy with either gemcitabine or 5-fluorouracil with folinic acid.

Effects and moderators of psychosocial interventions on quality of life, and emotional and social function in patients with cancer: An individual patient data meta-analysis of 22 RCTs.

OBJECTIVE: This individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the effects of psychosocial interventions (PSI) on quality of life (QoL), emotional function (EF), and social function (SF) in patients with cancer, and to study moderator effects of demographic, clinical, personal, and intervention-related characteristics. METHODS: Relevant studies were identified via literature searches in 4 databases. We pooled IPD from 22 (n = 4217) of 61 eligible randomized controlled trials. Linear mixed-effect model analyses were used to study intervention effects on the post-intervention values of QoL, EF, and SF (z-scores), adjusting for baseline values, age, and cancer type. We studied moderator effects by testing interactions with the intervention for demographic, clinical, personal, and intervention-related characteristics, and conducted subsequent stratified analyses for significant moderator variables. RESULTS: PSI significantly improved QoL (ß = 0.14,95%CI = 0.06;0.21), EF (ß = 0.13,95%CI = 0.05;0.20), and SF (ß = 0.10,95%CI = 0.03;0.18). Significant differences in effects of different types of PSI were found, with largest effects of psychotherapy. The effects of coping skills training were moderated by age, treatment type, and targeted interventions. Effects of psychotherapy on EF may be moderated by cancer type, but these analyses were based on 2 randomized controlled trials with small sample sizes of some cancer types. CONCLUSIONS: PSI significantly improved QoL, EF, and SF, with small overall effects. However, the effects differed by several demographic, clinical, personal, and intervention-related characteristics. Our study highlights the beneficial effects of coping skills training in patients treated with chemotherapy, the importance of targeted interventions, and the need of developing interventions tailored to the specific needs of elderly patients.

Session 4: What should we do for poor responders after chemoradiotherapy: bad biology or should the fight go on?

Just over 50% of patients with advanced rectal cancer have a poor response to chemoradiotherapy with resultant poor outcomes. Professor Glimelius reviews the evidence base for defining such patients and the potential role, if any, of further treatment.

Risk of second primary cancer in patients treated with radiotherapy for rectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Many patients with rectal cancer receive radiotherapy (RT) to reduce the risk of local recurrence. Radiation may give rise to adverse effects, including second primary cancers. In view of the divergent results of previous studies, the present study evaluated the risk of second primary cancer following RT in all randomized RT rectal cancer trials conducted in Sweden and in the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry (SCRCR). METHODS: Patients included in five randomized trials and the SCRCR were linked to the Swedish Cancer Registry. Cox regression models estimated the hazard ratio (HR) of second primary cancer among patients who received RT compared with those who did not. RESULTS: A total of 13 457 patients were included in this study; 7024 (52·2 per cent) received RT and 6433 (47·8 per cent) had surgery alone. Overall, no increased risk of second primary cancer was observed with RT (HR 1·03; 95 per cent c.i. 0·92 to 1·15), independently of follow-up time and location within or outside of the irradiated volume. In the randomized trials, with longer follow-up (maximum 31 years), a slight increase was observed outside of (HR 1·33, 1·01 to 1·74) but not within (HR 1·11, 0·73 to 1·67) the irradiated volume. Irradiated men had a lower risk of prostate cancer than those treated with surgery alone (HR 0·68, 0·51 to 0·91). CONCLUSION: Overall, there was no increased risk of second primary cancer following RT for rectal cancer within or outside of the irradiated volume up to 20 years of follow-up. Men with rectal cancer who received RT had a reduced risk of prostate cancer.

PAN-EX: a pooled analysis of two trials of neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by chemoradiotherapy in MRI-defined, locally advanced rectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: EXPERT and EXPERT-C were phase II clinical trials of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) followed by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in high-risk, locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). DESIGN: We pooled individual patient data from these trials. The primary objective was overall survival (OS) in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. Prognostic factors were also analysed. RESULTS: A total of 269 patients were included. Of these, 91.1% completed NACT, 88.1% completed CRT and 240 (89.2%) underwent curative surgery (R0/R1). After a median follow-up of 71.9 months, 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) and OS were 66.4% and 73.3%, respectively. In the group of R0/R1 resection patients, 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS) and OS were 71.6% and 77.2%, respectively, with local recurrence occurring in 5.5% and distant metastases in 20.6% of cases. Significant prognostic factors after multivariate analyses included age, tumour grade and MRI extramural venous invasion (mrEMVI) at baseline, MRI tumour regression grade (mrTRG) after CRT, ypT stage after surgery and adherence to study treatment. mrTRG after NACT was associated with PFS (P = 0.002) and OS (P = 0.018) and appeared to stratify patients based on the incremental benefit from sequential CRT. Among the outcome measures considered, in the subgroup of R0/R1 resection patients, ypT and ypStage had the highest predictive accuracy for RFS (concordance index: 0.6238 and 0.6252, respectively) and OS (concordance index: 0.6094 and 0.6132, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Administering NACT before CRT could be a potential strategy for high-risk LARC. In this setting, mrTRG after CRT is an independent prognostic factor, while mrTRG after NACT should be tested as a parameter for treatment selection in trials of NACT ± CRT. ypT stage may be a valuable surrogate end point for future phase II trials investigating intensified neoadjuvant treatments in similar patient populations.

Treatment of colorectal cancer in older patients: International Society of Geriatric Oncology (SIOG) consensus recommendations 2013.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in Europe and worldwide, with the peak incidence in patients >70 years of age. However, as the treatment algorithms for the treatment of patients with CRC become ever more complex, it is clear that a significant percentage of older CRC patients (>70 years) are being less than optimally treated. This document provides a summary of an International Society of Geriatric Oncology (SIOG) task force meeting convened in Paris in 2013 to update the existing expert recommendations for the treatment of older (geriatric) CRC patients published in 2009 and includes overviews of the recent data on epidemiology, geriatric assessment as it relates to surgery and oncology, and the ability of older CRC patients to tolerate surgery, adjuvant chemotherapy, treatment of their metastatic disease including palliative chemotherapy with and without the use of the biologics, and finally the use of adjuvant and palliative radiotherapy in the treatment of older rectal cancer patients. An overview of each area was presented by one of the task force experts and comments invited from other task force members.

Prognostic role of the LCS6 KRAS variant in locally advanced rectal cancer: results of the EXPERT-C trial.

BACKGROUND: Lethal-7 (let-7) is a tumour suppressor miRNA which acts by down-regulating several oncogenes including KRAS. A single-nucleotide polymorphism (rs61764370, T > G base substitution) in the let-7 complementary site 6 (LCS-6) of KRAS mRNA has been shown to predict prognosis in early-stage colorectal cancer (CRC) and benefit from anti-epidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibodies in metastatic CRC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analysed rs61764370 in EXPERT-C, a randomised phase II trial of neoadjuvant CAPOX followed by chemoradiotherapy, surgery and adjuvant CAPOX plus or minus cetuximab in locally advanced rectal cancer. DNA was isolated from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour tissue and genotyped using a PCR-based commercially available assay. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis were used to calculate survival estimates and compare treatment arms. RESULTS: A total of 155/164 (94.5%) patients were successfully analysed, of whom 123 (79.4%) and 32 (20.6%) had the LCS-6 TT and LCS-6 TG genotype, respectively. Carriers of the G allele were found to have a statistically significantly higher rate of complete response (CR) after neoadjuvant therapy (28.1% versus 10.6%; P = 0.020) and a trend for better 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) [77.4% versus 64.5%: hazard ratio (HR) 0.56; P = 0.152] and overall survival (OS) rates (80.3% versus 71.9%: HR 0.59; P = 0.234). Both CR and survival outcomes were independent of the use of cetuximab. The negative prognostic effect associated with KRAS mutation appeared to be stronger in patients with the LCS-6 TT genotype (HR PFS 1.70, P = 0.078; HR OS 1.79, P = 0.082) compared with those with the LCS-6 TG genotype (HR PFS 1.33, P = 0.713; HR OS 1.01, P = 0.995). CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that rs61764370 may be a biomarker of response to neoadjuvant treatment and an indicator of favourable outcome in locally advanced rectal cancer possibly by mitigating the poor prognosis of KRAS mutation. In this setting, however, this polymorphism does not appear to predict cetuximab benefit.

Adjuvant chemotherapy for rectal cancer patients treated with preoperative (chemo)radiotherapy and total mesorectal excision: a Dutch Colorectal Cancer Group (DCCG) randomized phase III trial.

BACKGROUND: The discussion on the role of adjuvant chemotherapy for rectal cancer patients treated according to current guidelines is still ongoing. A multicentre, randomized phase III trial, PROCTOR-SCRIPT, was conducted to compare adjuvant chemotherapy with observation for rectal cancer patients treated with preoperative (chemo)radiotherapy and total mesorectal excision (TME). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The PROCTOR-SCRIPT trial recruited patients from 52 hospitals. Patients with histologically proven stage II or III rectal adenocarcinoma were randomly assigned (1:1) to observation or adjuvant chemotherapy after preoperative (chemo)radiotherapy and TME. Radiotherapy consisted of 5 × 5 Gy. Chemoradiotherapy consisted of 25 × 1.8-2 Gy combined with 5-FU-based chemotherapy. Adjuvant chemotherapy consisted of 5-FU/LV (PROCTOR) or eight courses capecitabine (SCRIPT). Randomization was based on permuted blocks of six, stratified according to centre, residual tumour, time between last irradiation and surgery, and preoperative treatment. The primary end point was overall survival. RESULTS: Of 470 enrolled patients, 437 were eligible. The trial closed prematurely because of slow patient accrual. Patients were randomly assigned to observation (n = 221) or adjuvant chemotherapy (n = 216). After a median follow-up of 5.0 years, 5-year overall survival was 79.2% in the observation group and 80.4% in the chemotherapy group [hazard ratio (HR) 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62-1.39; P = 0.73]. The HR for disease-free survival was 0.80 (95% CI 0.60-1.07; P = 0.13). Five-year cumulative incidence for locoregional recurrences was 7.8% in both groups. Five-year cumulative incidence for distant recurrences was 38.5% and 34.7%, respectively (P = 0.39). CONCLUSION: The PROCTOR-SCRIPT trial could not demonstrate a significant benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy with fluoropyrimidine monotherapy after preoperative (chemo)radiotherapy and TME on overall survival, disease-free survival, and recurrence rate. However, this trial did not complete planned accrual. REGISTRATION NUMBER: Dutch Colorectal Cancer group, CKTO 2003-16, ISRCTN36266738.

Tumour regression in the randomized Stockholm III Trial of radiotherapy regimens for rectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The Stockholm III Trial randomized patients with primary operable rectal cancers to either short-course radiotherapy (RT) with immediate surgery (SRT), short-course RT with surgery delayed 4-8 weeks (SRT-delay) or long-course RT with surgery delayed 4-8 weeks. This preplanned interim analysis examined the pathological outcome of delaying surgery. METHODS: Patients randomized to the SRT and SRT-delay arms in the Stockholm III Trial between October 1998 and November 2010 were included, and data were collected in a prospective register. Additional data regarding tumour regression grade, according to Dworak, and circumferential margin were obtained by reassessment of histopathological slides. RESULTS: A total of 462 of 545 randomized patients had specimens available for reassessment. Patients randomized to SRT-delay had earlier ypT categories, and a higher rate of pathological complete responses (11·8 versus 1·7 per cent; P = 0·001) and Dworak grade 4 tumour regression (10·1 versus 1·7 per cent; P < 0·001) than patients randomized to SRT without delay. Positive circumferential resection margins were uncommon (6·3 per cent) and rates did not differ between the two treatment arms. CONCLUSION: Short-course RT induces tumour downstaging if surgery is performed after an interval of 4-8 weeks.

Time trends, improvements and national auditing of rectal cancer management over an 18-year period.

AIM: The main aims were to explore time trends in the management and outcome of patients with rectal cancer in a national cohort and to evaluate the possible impact of national auditing on overall outcomes. A secondary aim was to provide population-based data for appraisal of external validity in selected patient series. METHOD: Data from the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry with virtually complete national coverage were utilized in this cohort study on 29 925 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between 1995 and 2012. Of eligible patients, nine were excluded. RESULTS: During the study period, overall, relative and disease-free survival increased. Postoperative mortality after 30 and 90 days decreased to 1.7% and 2.9%. The 5-year local recurrence rate dropped to 5.0%. Resection margins improved, as did peri-operative blood loss despite more multivisceral resections being performed. Fewer patients underwent palliative resection and the proportion of non-operated patients increased. The proportions of temporary and permanent stoma formation increased. Preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy became more common as did multidisciplinary team conferences. Variability in rectal cancer management between healthcare regions diminished over time when new aspects of patient care were audited. CONCLUSION: There have been substantial changes over time in the management of patients with rectal cancer, reflected in improved outcome. Much indirect evidence indicates that auditing matters, but without a control group it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the possible impact of a quality control registry on faster shifts in time trends, decreased variability and improvements. Registry data were made available for reference.

The effect of the UGT1A1*28 allele on survival after irinotecan-based chemotherapy: a collaborative meta-analysis.

To date, studies of irinotecan pharmacogenetics have mostly focused on the effect of the UGT1A1*28 allele on irinotecan-related toxicity. However, the clinical utility of routine UGT1A1*28 genotyping to pre-emptively adjust irinotecan dosage is dependent upon whether UGT1A1*28 also affects patient survival following irinotecan therapy. Previous observational studies evaluating the influence of UGT1A1*28 on survival have shown contradictory results. A systematic review and meta-analysis of both published and unpublished data were performed to summarize the available evidence of the relationship between the UGT1A1*28 allele and patient survival related to irinotecan therapy. Overall and progression-free survival meta-analysis data were available for 1524 patients and 1494 patients, respectively. The difference in the survival between patients of different UGT1A1*28 genotypes (homozygous, heterozygous or wild-type) who had received irinotecan was not found to be statistically significant. There was also no evidence of irinotecan dose, regimen or line of therapy having an impact on this association.

Patients with rectal cancer receiving adjuvant chemotherapy have an increased survival: a population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate whether or not the use of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage III rectal cancer varies between regions and over time, and if this has had an effect on survival rates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients from the Uppsala/Örebro region below 75 years-of-age, operated 1995-2002 and registered in the Swedish Rectal Cancer Register, were monitored between 1995 and September 2008. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for analysis. Overall survival was described using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Four hundred and thirty-six patients with stage III rectal cancer were included. Adjuvant chemotherapy was given to 42% of the patients (proportions varying from 13% to 77% among counties), and there were substantial increases over time. The 5-year overall survival was 65.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 50-84] for patients having adjuvant chemotherapy compared with 45.6% (95% CI 39-52) for patients not treated with chemotherapy. The multivariate hazard ratio for death was 0.65 (95% CI 0.5-0.8) for patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: The use of adjuvant chemotherapy for rectal cancer has increased, but varies considerably between hospitals/counties. In this cohort, those having adjuvant chemotherapy had a longer overall survival.

Age-dependent improvement in median and long-term survival in unselected population-based Nordic registries of patients with synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: In metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) trials, median survival has increased from 6 months to above 20 months during the previous decades. Uncertainty exists in how this survival improvement has translated to the general mCRC population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Survival data from patients with synchronous mCRC were collected from the Norwegian (1980-2008), Swedish (1996-2008) and Danish (2001-09) cancer registries. RESULTS: A total of 29 628 patients were identified. From 1980-1985 to 2006-2008, median survival increased from 5 to 10 months for Norwegian patients. Three-year survival increased from 7% to 21% and 5-year survival from 4% to 9%. For patients <60 years, median survival was doubled to 16 months, 3-year survival increased fourfold up to 28% and 5-year survival threefold up to 14%. Similar improvements were seen in Sweden and Denmark. In all countries, the improved outcome was seen especially for younger patients and much less for patients >75 years of age. CONCLUSION: An increase in median and long-term survival over time was found in unselected population-based registries of patients with synchronous mCRC. The improved outcome in survival was especially seen in younger patients, raising concerns over our ability to adapt available treatment options for elderly patients.

HER2 in high-risk rectal cancer patients treated in EXPERT-C, a randomized phase II trial of neoadjuvant capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) and chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with or without cetuximab.

BACKGROUND: HER2 is an established therapeutic target in breast and gastric cancers. The role of HER2 in rectal cancer is unclear, as conflicting data on the prevalence of HER2 expression in this disease have been reported. We evaluated the prevalence of HER2 and its impact on the outcome of high-risk rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant CAPOX and CRT±cetuximab in the EXPERT-C trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligible patients with available tumour tissue for HER2 analysis were included. HER2 expression was determined by immunohistochemistry (IHC) in pre-treatment biopsies and/or surgical specimens (score 0-3+). Immunostaining was scored according to the consensus panel recommendations on HER2 scoring for gastric cancer. Tumours with equivocal IHC result (2+) were tested for HER2 amplification by D-ISH. Tumours with IHC 3+ or D-ISH ratio ≥2.0 were classified as HER2+. The impact of HER2 on primary and secondary end points of the study was analysed. RESULTS: Of 164 eligible study patients, 104 (63%) biopsy and 114 (69%) surgical specimens were available for analysis. Only 3 of 104 (2.9%) and 3 of 114 (2.6%) were HER2+, respectively. In 77 patients with paired specimens, concordance for HER2 status was found in 74 (96%). Overall, 141 patients were assessable for HER2 and 6 out of 141 (4.3%) had HER2 overexpression and/or amplification. The median follow-up was 58.6 months. HER2 was not associated with a difference in the outcome for any of the study end points, including in the subset of 90 KRAS/BRAF wild-type patients treated±cetuximab. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the low prevalence of expression as recorded in the EXPERT-C trial, HER2 does not appear to represent a useful therapeutic target in high-risk rectal cancer. However, the role of HER2 as a potential predictive biomarker of resistance to anti-EGFR-based treatments and a therapeutic target in anti-EGFR refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) warrants further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Register: 99828560.