Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment-Induced GLOBE Score Changes Are Associated With Liver Transplantation-Free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can improve the GLOBE score. We aimed to assess the association between changes in the GLOBE score (ΔGLOBE) and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC who were treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). METHODS: Among UDCA-treated patients within the Global PBC cohort, the association between ΔGLOBE (ΔGLOBE 0-1 : during the first year of UDCA, ΔGLOBE 1-2 : during the second year) and the risk of LT or death was assessed through Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 3,775 UDCA-treated patients were included; 3,424 (90.7%) were female, the median age was 54.0 (interquartile range [IQR] 45.9-62.4) years, and the median baseline GLOBE score was 0.25 (IQR -0.47 to 0.96). During a median follow-up of 7.2 (IQR 3.7-11.5) years, 730 patients reached the combined end point of LT or death. The median ΔGLOBE 0-1 was -0.27 (IQR -0.56 to 0.02). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for pretreatment GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-12 , showed that ΔGLOBE was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.81-2.87, P < 0.001). The interaction between baseline GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-1 was not statistically significant ( P = 0.296). The ΔGLOBE 1-2 was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval 1.67-2.86, P < 0.001), independently from the baseline GLOBE score and the change in GLOBE score during the first year of UDCA. DISCUSSION: UDCA-induced changes in the GLOBE score were significantly associated with LT-free survival in patients with PBC. While the relative risk reduction of LT or death was stable, the absolute risk reduction was heavily dependent on the baseline prognosis of the patient.

Disease burden in primary sclerosing cholangitis in the Netherlands: A long-term follow-up study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a progressive, cholestatic liver disease which greatly impacts the lives of individuals. Burden of disease due to shortened life expectancy and impaired quality of life is ill-described. The aim of this study was to assess long-term disease burden in a large population-based registry with regard to survival, clinical course, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), medical consumption and work productivity loss. METHODS: All PSC patients living in a geographically defined area covering ~50% of the Netherlands were included, together with patients from the three liver transplant centres. Survival was estimated by competing risk analysis. Proportional shortfall of QALYs during disease course was measured relative to a matched reference cohort using validated questionnaires. Work productivity loss and medical consumption were evaluated over time. RESULTS: A total of 1208 patients were included with a median follow-up of 11.2 year. Median liver transplant-free survival was 21.0 years. Proportional shortfall of QALYs increased to 48% >25 years after diagnosis. Patients had on average 12.4 hospital contact days among which 3.17 admission days per year, annual medical costs were €12 169 and mean work productivity loss was 25%. CONCLUSIONS: Our data quantify for the first time disease burden in terms of QALYs lost, clinical events, medical consumption, costs as well as work productivity loss, and show that all these are substantial and increase over time.

A Comparison of Prognostic Scores (Mayo, UK-PBC, and GLOBE) in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative data on scores that predict outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are scarce. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic value of the Mayo Risk Score (MRS, 1989 and 1994), UK-PBC score, and GLOBE score in a large international cohort of patients with PBC. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from 7 centers participating in the GLOBAL PBC Study Group were included. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Model for End-stage Liver Disease was included for comparison. Prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted survival and actual survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses. RESULTS: A total of 1,100 ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC were included, with a mean (SD) age of 53.6 (12.0) years, of whom 1,003 (91%) were female. During a median follow-up of 7.6 (interquartile range 4.1-11.7) years, 42 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 127 patients died. At 1 year, the concordance statistic for Model for End-stage Liver Disease was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.72), 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) for the UK-PBC score, 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81) for the MRS (1989 and 1994), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) for the GLOBE score. The GLOBE score showed superior discriminatory performance, but differences were not statistically different. For all scores, discriminatory performance increased in those with bilirubin >0.6 × ULN and advanced fibrosis estimated with Fibrosis-4. The predicted (median) minus observed 5-year transplant-free survival was +0.4% and +2.5% for the MRS (1989) and GLOBE score, respectively. DISCUSSION: All prognostic scores developed for PBC (GLOBE, UK-PBC, and MRS) demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for liver transplantation or death as well as good prediction accuracy.

Factors Associated With Recurrence of Primary Biliary Cholangitis After Liver Transplantation and Effects on Graft and Patient Survival.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) frequently recurs after liver transplantation. We evaluated risk factors associated with recurrence of PBC and its effects on patient and graft survival in a multicenter, international cohort (the Global PBC Study Group). METHODS: We collected demographic and clinical data from 785 patients (89% female) with PBC who underwent liver transplantation (mean age, 54 ± 9 years) from February 1983 through June 2016, among 13 centers in North America and Europe. Results from biochemical tests performed within 12 months of liver transplantation were analyzed to determine whether markers of cholestasis could identify patients with recurrence of PBC (based on histologic analysis). Patients were followed for a median 6.9 years (interquartile range, 6.1-7.9 years). RESULTS: PBC recurred in 22% of patients after 5 years and 36% after 10 years. Age at diagnosis <50 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.79; 95% CI, 1.36-2.36; P < .001), age at liver transplantation <60 years (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.90; P = .04), use of tacrolimus (HR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.72-3.10; P < .001), and biochemical markers of severe cholestasis (bilirubin ≥100 µmol or alkaline phosphatase >3-fold the upper limit of normal) at 6 months after liver transplantation (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.16-2.76; P = .008) were associated with higher risk of PBC recurrence, whereas use of cyclosporine reduced risk of PBC recurrence (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.46-0.82; P = .001). In multivariable Cox regression with time-dependent covariate, recurrence of PBC significantly associated with graft loss (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.16-3.51; P = .01) and death (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.11-2.65; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Younger age at the time of diagnosis with PBC or at liver transplantation, tacrolimus use, and biochemical markers of cholestasis after liver transplantation are associated with PBC recurrence. PBC recurrence reduces odds of graft and patient survival. Strategies are needed to prevent PBC recurrence or reduce its negative effects.

Factors Associated With Progression and Outcomes of Early Stage Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients usually receive a diagnosis of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) at an early stage, based on biochemical analyses. We investigated the proportion of patients who progress to moderate or advanced PBC and factors associated with progression and patient survival. METHODS: We obtained data from 1615 patients (mean age, 55.4 y) with early stage PBC (based on their normal levels of albumin and bilirubin), collected at the time of initial evaluation or treatment, from the Global PBC Study Group database (comprising patients at 19 liver centers in North American and European countries). We collected data from health care evaluations on progression to moderate PBC (abnormal level of bilirubin or albumin) or advanced-stage PBC (abnormal level of both). The median follow-up time was 7.9 years. The composite end point was decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or death. RESULTS: Of the 1615 patients identified with early stage PBC, 904 developed moderate PBC and 201 developed advanced disease over the study period. The proportions of patients who transitioned to moderate PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 12.9%, 30.2%, and 45.8%. The proportions of these patients who then transitioned to advanced PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years later were 3.4%, 12.5%, and 16.0%, respectively. During the follow-up period, 236 patients had a clinical event. The proportions of patients with moderate PBC and event-free survival were 97.9%, 95.1%, and 91.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, and the proportions of patients with advanced PBC and event-free survival were 90.6%, 71.2%, and 58.3% at 1, 3, and 5 years later, respectively. Variables associated with transition from early to moderate PBC included baseline levels of bilirubin, albumin, and alkaline phosphatase; aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio; platelet count; and treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid. Transitions from early to moderate PBC and from moderate to advanced PBC were associated with higher probabilities of a clinical event (time-dependent hazard ratios, 3.0; 95% CI, 2.0-4.5; and 4.6; 95% CI, 3.5-6.2). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of patients with early stage PBC progress to a more severe stage within 5 years. Progression is associated with an increased risk of a clinical event, so surveillance is important for patients with early stage PBC.

Validation, clinical utility and limitations of the Amsterdam-Oxford model for primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recently the Amsterdam-Oxford model (AOM) was introduced as a prognostic model to assess the risk of death and/or liver transplantation (LT) in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We aimed to validate and assess the utility of the AOM. METHODS: Clinical and laboratory data were collected from the time of PSC diagnosis until the last visit or time of LT or death. The AOM was calculated at yearly intervals following PSC diagnosis. Discriminatory performance was assessed by calculation of the C-statistic and prediction accuracy by comparing the predicted survival with the observed survival in Kaplan-Meier estimates. A grid search was performed to identify the most discriminatory AOM threshold. RESULTS: A total of 534 patients with PSC and a mean (SD) age of 39.2 (13.1) years were included. The diagnosis was large duct PSC in 466 (87%), PSC with features of autoimmune hepatitis in 52 (10%) and small-duct PSC in 16 (3%). During the median (IQR) follow-up of 7.8 (4.0-12.6) years, 167 patients underwent LT and 65 died. The median LT-free survival was 13.2 (11.8-14.7) years. The C-statistic of the AOM ranged from 0.67 at baseline to 0.75 at 5 years of follow-up. The difference between the predicted and observed survival ranged from -1.6% at 1 year to + 3.9% at 5 years of follow-up. Patients that developed AOM scores >2.0 were at significant risk of LT or death (time-dependent hazard ratio 4.09; 95% CI 2.99-5.61). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of patients with PSC, the AOM showed an adequate discriminative performance and good prediction accuracy at PSC diagnosis and during follow-up. This study further validates the AOM as a valuable risk stratification tool in PSC and extends its utility. LAY SUMMARY: In our study we assessed whether the Amsterdam-Oxford model (AOM) is able to correctly estimate the risk of liver transplantation or death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). This model uses 7 objective and readily available variables to estimate prognosis for individual patients at the time of PSC diagnosis. The AOM may aid in patient counselling and timing of diagnostic procedures or therapeutic interventions for complications of liver disease. We confirm that the model works well at PSC diagnosis, but also when the AOM is recalculated at different timepoints during follow-up, greatly improving the applicability of the model in clinical practice and for individual patients.

Milder disease stage in patients with primary biliary cholangitis over a 44-year period: A changing natural history.

Changes over time in the presenting features and clinical course of patients with primary biliary cholangitis are poorly described. We sought to describe temporal trends in patient and disease characteristics over a 44-year period across a large international primary biliary cholangitis cohort of 4,805 patients diagnosed between 1970 and 2014, from 17 centers across Europe and North America. Patients were divided into five cohorts according to their year of diagnosis: 1970-1979 (n = 143), 1980-1989 (n = 858), 1990-1999 (n = 1,754), 2000-2009 (n = 1,815), and ≥2010 (n = 235). Age at diagnosis, disease stage, response to ursodeoxycholic acid, and clinical outcomes were compared. Mean age at diagnosis increased incrementally by 2-3 years per decade from 46.9 ± 10.1 years in the 1970s to 57.0 ± 12.1 years from 2010 onward (P < 0.001). The female to male ratio (9:1) and antimitochondrial antibody positivity (90%) were not significantly variable. The proportion of patients presenting with mild biochemical disease (according to Rotterdam staging) increased from 41.3% in the 1970s to 72.2% in the 1990s (P < 0.001) and remained relatively stable thereafter. Patients with a mild histological stage at diagnosis increased from 60.4% (1970-1989) to 76.5% (1990-2014) (P < 0.001). Correspondingly, response to ursodeoxycholic acid according to Paris-I criteria increased; 51.7% in the 1970s and 70.5% in the 1990s (P < 0.001). Recent decades were also characterized by lower decompensation rates (18.5% in the 1970s to 5.8% in the 2000s, P < 0.001) and higher 10-year transplant-free survival (48.4%, 68.7%, 79.7%, and 80.1% for each respective cohort; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In recent decades, a pattern of primary biliary cholangitis presentation consistent with an older age at diagnosis alongside reduced disease severity has been noted; the observed trends may be explained by an increase in routine testing of liver function and/or a changing environmental trigger. (Hepatology 2018;67:1920-1930).

Major Hepatic Complications in Ursodeoxycholic Acid-Treated Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Risk Factors and Time Trends in Incidence and Outcome.

OBJECTIVES: In this era of near universal ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), progression to cirrhosis still occurs in an important proportion of patients. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of cirrhosis-associated complications in patients with PBC and assess risk factors and impact on survival. METHODS: Cohorts of UDCA-treated patients from 16 European and North-American liver centers were included. We used Cox proportional hazards assumptions and Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: During 8.1 years' median follow-up, 278 of 3,224 patients developed ascites, variceal bleeding, and/or encephalopathy (incidence rate of 9.7 cases/1,000 patient years). The overall cumulative incidence was 9.1% after 10 years of follow-up, but decreased over time to 5.8% after the year 2000. Earlier calendar year of diagnosis (P<0.001), high aspartate aminotransferase to platelets ratio index (APRI; P<0.001) and biochemical non-response (P<0.001) were independently associated with future complications. Patients with both biochemical non-response and an APRI >0.54 after 12 months of UDCA had a 10-year complication rate of 37.4%, as compared to 3.2% in biochemical responders with an APRI ≤0.54. The 10-year transplantation-free survival after a complication was 9% (time-dependent hazard ratio 21.5; 20.1-22.8). Prognosis after variceal bleeding has improved over time. CONCLUSIONS: In this large international cohort, up to 15% of UDCA-treated PBC patients developed major non-neoplastic, cirrhosis-associated hepatic complications within 15 years, but cumulative incidence has decreased over time. Biochemical non-response to UDCA and APRI were independent risk factors for these complications. Subsequent long-term outcome after complications is generally poor, but has improved over the past decades.

Current policy for allocation of donor livers in the Netherlands advantages primary sclerosing cholangitis patients on the liver transplantation waiting list-a retrospective study.

Studies from the USA and Nordic countries indicate primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) patients have low mortality on the liver transplantation (LTx) waiting list. However, this may vary among geographical areas. Therefore, we compared waiting list mortality and post-transplant survival between laboratory model for end-stage liver disease (LM) and MELD exception (ME)-prioritized PSC and non-PSC candidates in a nationwide study in the Netherlands. A retrospective analysis of patients waitlisted from 2006 to 2013 was conducted. A total of 852 candidates (146 PSC) were waitlisted of whom 609 (71.5%) underwent LTx and 159 (18.7%) died before transplantation. None of the ME PSC patients died, and they had a higher probability of LTx than LM PSC [HR obtained by considering ME as a time-dependent covariate (HRME 9.86; 95% CI 6.14-15.85)] and ME non-PSC patients (HRME 4.60; 95% CI 3.78-5.61). After liver transplantation, PSC patients alive at 3 years of follow-up had a higher probability of relisting than non-PSC patients (HR 7.94; 95% CI 1.98-31.85) but a significantly lower mortality (HR 0.51; 95% CI 0.27-0.95). In conclusion, current LTx prioritization advantages PSC patients on the LTx waiting list. Receiving ME points is strongly associated with timely LTx.

Guideline review: British Society of Gastroenterology/UK-PBC Primary Biliary Cholangitis treatment and management guidelines.

New guidelines have been produced for the management of primary biliary cholangitis, an infrequent but nonetheless important autoimmune liver disease. We provide a succient commentary and overview of the key features of disease management that arise from these recent guideline recommendations, with a focus on therapy with licensed agents (ursodeoxycholic acid and obeticholic acid) as well as personalised management of disease complications and associated symptoms.

Cholecystectomy Risk in Crohn's Disease Patients After Ileal Resection: a Long-term Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of gallstone disease necessitating cholecystectomy after ileal resection (IR) in Crohn's disease (CD) patients is not well established. We studied the incidence, cumulative and relative risk of cholecystectomy after IR in CD patients, and associated risk factors. METHODS: CD patients with a first IR between 1991 and 2015 were identified in PALGA, a nationwide pathology database in the Netherlands. Details on subsequent cholecystectomy and IR were recorded. Yearly cholecystectomy rates from the general Dutch population were used as a reference. RESULTS: A cohort of 8302 (3466 (41.7%) males) CD patients after IR was identified. During the 11.9 (IQR 6.3-18.0) years median follow-up, the post-IR incidence rate of cholecystectomy was 5.2 (95% CI 3.5-6.4)/1000 persons/year. The cumulative incidence was 0.5% at 1 year, 2.4% at 5 years, 4.6% at 10 years, and 10.3% after 20 years. In multivariable analyses, female sex (HR 1.9, CI 1.5-2.3), a later calendar year of first IR (HR/5-year increase, HR 1.27, CI 1.18-1.35), and ileal re-resection (time-dependent HR 1.37, CI 1.06-1.77) were associated with cholecystectomy. In the last decade, cholecystectomy rates increased and were higher in our postoperative CD population than in the general population (relative incidence ratio 3.13 (CI 2.29-4.28; p < 0.0001) in 2015). CONCLUSIONS: Although higher in females, increasing in recent years, and higher than in the general population, the overall risk of cholecystectomy in CD patients following IR is low and routine prophylactic measures seem unwarranted.

Risk stratification and prognostic modelling in primary biliary cholangitis.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a slowly progressive chronic cholestatic liver disease that, in a subgroup of patients, may result in liver failure or death. The definition of specific risk profiles, i.e. risk stratification, is of critical importance for the identification of these subgroups and thereby the targeting of care. Over the last few years large multicentre cohort studies have improved our knowledge regarding factors associated with progressive disease. Stratification based on biochemical response to ursodoxycholic acid provides a readily available measure to identify groups that might benefit from additional therapies to further improve prognosis. In addition, serum total bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase are now considered the most robustly validated biomarkers of long-term outcome in PBC and are used as endpoints in clinical trials. The GLOBE score and UK-PBC risk score enable us to quantify the risk of future events for the individual patient, allowing more individualized risk prediction. In this review, we discuss both established prognostic factors and newly developed tools to estimate prognosis in PBC, highlighting their strengths, limitations and applicability in clinical practice.

Ultra-thin caliber endoscopes in daily practice: uses for therapeutic application and beyond on the basis of review of 1028 procedures.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Ultra-thin caliber endoscopes (UTCEs) are versatile and applicable in various conditions. However, only limited data exist on the actual daily clinical use of UTCEs. The aim of our study was to determine indications for UTCEs in a large patient cohort. In turn, our 2 main objectives were (1) to evaluate patient comfort and safety and (2) to determine benefits and potential advantages associated with the use of UTCEs in this same cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of our prospective database of 1028 procedures with UTCEs in 457 patients. All procedures were carried out in the Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, VU University Medical Center, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, between May 2008 and May 2014. In these procedures, either the Fujinon (Tokyo, Japan) EG-530N UTCE or the Olympus (Tokyo, Japan) GIF N-180 UTCE was used. RESULTS: Mean (standard deviation [SD]) age of patients was 64 (20) years, and most (60 %) of the patients were men. Most (61 %) of the underlying diseases, requiring endoscopic procedures, were found in the esophagus. Of the procedures performed, 91 % were successful, and 82 % were therapeutic. In comparison with regular endoscopes, the most important advantage of the UTCE was the ability to pass a stenosis (37 %), followed by nasogastric feeding tube placement (13 %). Newer and more innovative uses of the UTCE were percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG)-jejunal extension placement with endoscope introduction through existing PEG tract, retrograde esophageal introduction through existing PEG tract, inspection of colonic neovagina stenosis, and direct inspection of the common bile duct. CONCLUSIONS: In everyday clinical practice, the UTCE has specific advantages over conventional endoscopes because of its small caliber. The 3 main advantages are (1) introduction of high-grade strictures; (2) introduction of fistulas, including PEG fistula; and (3) increased patient comfort. The endoscopist should appreciate these advantages and consider use of the UTCE accordingly.