Bayesian Skyline Plots disagree with range size changes based on Species Distribution Models for Holarctic birds.

During the Quaternary, large climate oscillations impacted the distribution and demography of species globally. Two approaches have played a major role in reconstructing changes through time: Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSPs), which reconstruct population fluctuations based on genetic data, and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), which allow us to back-cast the range occupied by a species based on its climatic preferences. In this paper, we contrast these two approaches by applying them to a large data set of 102 Holarctic bird species, for which both mitochondrial DNA sequences and distribution maps are available, to reconstruct their dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Most species experienced an increase in effective population size (Ne , as estimated by BSPs) as well as an increase in geographical range (as reconstructed by SDMs) since the LGM; however, we found no correlation between the magnitude of changes in Ne and range size. The only clear signal we could detect was a later and greater increase in Ne for wetland birds compared to species that live in other habitats, a probable consequence of a delayed and more extensive increase in the extent of this habitat type after the LGM. The lack of correlation between SDM and BSP reconstructions could not be reconciled even when range shifts were considered. We suggest that this pattern might be linked to changes in population densities, which can be independent of range changes, and caution that interpreting either SDMs or BSPs independently is problematic and potentially misleading.

Land sparing to make space for species dependent on natural habitats and high nature value farmland.

Empirical evidence from four continents indicates that human food demand may be best reconciled with biodiversity conservation through sparing natural habitats by boosting agricultural yields. This runs counter to the conservation paradigm of wildlife-friendly farming, which is influential in Europe, where many species are dependent on low-yielding high nature value farmland threatened by both intensification and abandonment. In the first multi-taxon population-level test of land-sparing theory in Europe, we quantified how population densities of 175 bird and sedge species varied with farm yield across 26 squares (each with an area of 1 km2) in eastern Poland. We discovered that, as in previous studies elsewhere, simple land sparing, with only natural habitats on spared land, markedly out-performed land sharing in its effect on region-wide projected population sizes. However, a novel 'three-compartment' land-sparing approach, in which about one-third of spared land is assigned to very low-yield agriculture and the remainder to natural habitats, resulted in least-reduced projected future populations for more species. Implementing the three-compartment model would require significant reorganization of current subsidy regimes, but would mean high-yield farming could release sufficient land for species dependent on both natural and high nature value farmland to persist.

Bird conservation and the land sharing-sparing continuum in farmland-dominated landscapes of lowland England.

Empirical evidence from many regions suggests that most species would be least negatively affected if human food demand were met through high-yield agricultural production and conservation of nonfarm ecosystems (land sparing), rather than through wildlife-friendly farming over a larger area (land sharing). However, repeated glaciation and a long history of agriculture may lead to different results in regions such as western Europe. We compared the consequences of land sparing and land sharing on breeding bird species in 2 lowland regions of England, The Fens, with 101 species, and Salisbury Plain, with 83. We derived density-yield responses for each species and then estimated regional population size under regional food production strategies, including land sharing and land sparing, a range of intermediate strategies, and a novel mixed strategy. In both regions, more species achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing than land sharing. In The Fens, the majority of birds were loser species (estimated to have smaller populations under all food production strategies than in the preagricultural baseline scenario), whereas in Salisbury Plain the majority were winners (smaller populations in the preagricultural baseline scenario). Loser species overwhelmingly achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing, whereas winner species achieved maximum regional population size under either land sharing or an intermediate strategy, highlighting the importance of defining which groups of species are the target of conservation. A novel 3-compartment strategy (combining high-yield farming, natural habitat, and low-yield farming) often performed better than either land sharing or land sparing. Our results support intermediate or 3-compartment land-sparing strategies to maximize bird populations across lowland agricultural landscapes. To deliver conservation outcomes, any shift toward land sparing must, however, ensure yield increases are sustainable in the long term, do not entail increased negative effects on surrounding areas, and are linked to allocation of land for nature.

Conservación de Aves y el Continuo de Suelo Compartido-Reservado en Paisajes Dominados por Tierras de Cultivo en las Tierras Bajas de Inglaterra Resumen La evidencia empírica proveniente de muchas regiones sugiere que la mayoría de las especies se verían menos afectadas negativamente si se cumpliera con la demanda humana de alimentos por medio de una producción agrícola de alto rendimiento y la conservación de ecosistemas no agrícolas (dosificación de suelo) en lugar de hacerlo a través de la agricultura amigable con la fauna en un área mayor (partición de suelo). Sin embargo, la glaciación repetitiva y una larga historia agrícola podrían brindar diferentes resultados en regiones como Europa occidental. Comparamos las consecuencias de la dosificación y la partición de suelo sobre especies de aves en reproducción en dos regiones de tierras bajas en Inglaterra: Los Fens, con 101 especies, y la Planicie Salisbury, con 83 especies. Derivamos las respuestas con densidad de rendimiento para cada especie y después estimamos el tamaño poblacional regional bajo estrategias regionales de producción de alimentos, incluyendo la dosificación y la partición de suelo, una gama de estrategias intermedias y una novedosa estrategia mixta. En ambas regiones, más especies alcanzaron el tamaño poblacional máximo para la región bajo la dosificación del suelo que bajo la partición del suelo. En Los Fens, la mayoría de las aves fueron especies perdedoras (se estimó que tendrían tamaños poblacionales menores bajo todas las estrategias de producción de alimento que en el escenario pre-agrícola de la línea base) mientras que en la Planicie Salisbury, la mayoría de las especies fueron ganadoras (con poblaciones más pequeñas en el escenario pre-agrícola de la línea base). Las especies perdedoras tuvieron abrumadoramente un tamaño poblacional máximo para la región bajo la dosificación de suelo, mientras que las especies ganadoras tuvieron este máximo poblacional bajo la partición de suelo o alguna estrategia intermedia, lo que resalta la importancia de la definición de cuáles grupos de especies son el objetivo de conservación. Una estrategia novedosa de tres compartimentos (combina la agricultura de alto rendimiento, el hábitat natural y la agricultura de bajo rendimiento) muchas veces tuvo un mejor desempeño que la dosificación o la partición del suelo. Nuestros resultados respaldan a las estrategias de dosificación de suelo intermedias o de tres compartimentos para maximizar las poblaciones de aves en todos los paisajes agrícolas de las tierras bajas. Para brindar resultados de conservación, cualquier cambio hacia la dosificación del suelo, sin embargo, debe asegurar que los incrementos en el rendimiento son sustentables a largo plazo, no conllevan un incremento de efectos negativos en las áreas circundantes, y que están vinculados a la asignación de suelo para la naturaleza.

Bird and bat species' global vulnerability to collision mortality at wind farms revealed through a trait-based assessment.

Mitigation of anthropogenic climate change involves deployments of renewable energy worldwide, including wind farms, which can pose a significant collision risk to volant animals. Most studies into the collision risk between species and wind turbines, however, have taken place in industrialized countries. Potential effects for many locations and species therefore remain unclear. To redress this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review of recorded collisions between birds and bats and wind turbines within developed countries. We related collision rate to species-level traits and turbine characteristics to quantify the potential vulnerability of 9538 bird and 888 bat species globally. Avian collision rate was affected by migratory strategy, dispersal distance and habitat associations, and bat collision rates were influenced by dispersal distance. For birds and bats, larger turbine capacity (megawatts) increased collision rates; however, deploying a smaller number of large turbines with greater energy output reduced total collision risk per unit energy output, although bat mortality increased again with the largest turbines. Areas with high concentrations of vulnerable species were also identified, including migration corridors. Our results can therefore guide wind farm design and location to reduce the risk of large-scale animal mortality. This is the first quantitative global assessment of the relative collision vulnerability of species groups with wind turbines, providing valuable guidance for minimizing potentially serious negative impacts on biodiversity.

Land-use strategies to balance livestock production, biodiversity conservation and carbon storage in Yucatán, Mexico.

Balancing the production of food, particularly meat, with preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services is a major societal challenge. Research into the contrasting strategies of land sparing and land sharing has suggested that land sparing-combining high-yield agriculture with the protection or restoration of natural habitats on nonfarmed land-will have lower environmental impacts than other strategies. Ecosystems with long histories of habitat disturbance, however, could be resilient to low-yield agriculture and thus fare better under land sharing. Using a wider suite of species (birds, dung beetles and trees) and a wider range of livestock-production systems than previous studies, we investigated the probable impacts of different land-use strategies on biodiversity and aboveground carbon stocks in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico-a region with a long history of habitat disturbance. By modelling the production of multiple products from interdependent land uses, we found that land sparing would allow larger estimated populations of most species and larger carbon stocks to persist than would land sharing or any intermediate strategy. This result held across all agricultural production targets despite the history of disturbance and despite species richness in low- and medium-yielding agriculture being not much lower than that in natural habitats. This highlights the importance, in evaluating the biodiversity impacts of land use, of measuring population densities of individual species, rather than simple species richness. The benefits of land sparing for both biodiversity and carbon storage suggest that safeguarding natural habitats for biodiversity protection and carbon storage alongside promoting areas of high-yield cattle production would be desirable. However, delivering such landscapes will probably require the explicit linkage of livestock yield increases with habitat protection or restoration, as well as a deeper understanding of the long-term sustainability of yields, and research into how other societal outcomes vary across land-use strategies.

Reducing the land use of EU pork production: where there's swill, there's a way.

Livestock production occupies approximately 75% of agricultural land, consumes 35% of the world's grain, and produces 14.5% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. With demand for meat and dairy products forecast to increase 60% by 2050, there is a pressing need to reduce the footprint of livestock farming. Food wastes have a long history as a source of environmentally benign animal feed, but their inclusion in feed is currently banned in the EU because of disease control concerns. A number of East Asian states have in the last 20 years, however, introduced regulated, centralised systems for safely recycling food wastes into animal feed. This study quantifies the land use savings that could be realised by changing EU legislation to promote the use of food wastes as animal feed and reviews the policy, public, and industry barriers to the use of food waste as feed. Our results suggest that the application of existing technologies could reduce the land use of EU pork (20% of world production) by one fifth, potentially saving 1.8 million hectares of agricultural land. While swill presents a low-cost, low-impact animal feed, widespread adoption would require efforts to address consumer and farmer concerns over food safety and disease control.

Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation.

Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes.

Quantitative global analysis of the role of climate and people in explaining late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions.

The late Quaternary period saw the rapid extinction of the majority of the world's terrestrial megafauna. The cause of these dramatic losses, especially the relative importance of climatic change and the impacts of newly arrived people, remains highly controversial, with geographically restricted analyses generating conflicting conclusions. By analyzing the distribution and timing of all megafaunal extinctions in relation to climatic variables and human arrival on five landmasses, we demonstrate that the observed pattern of extinctions is best explained by models that combine both human arrival and climatic variables. Our conclusions are robust to uncertainties in climate data and in the dates of megafaunal extinctions and human arrival on different landmasses, and strongly suggest that these extinctions were driven by both anthropogenic and climatic factors.

Mechanisms underpinning climatic impacts on natural populations: altered species interactions are more important than direct effects.

Shifts in species' distribution and abundance in response to climate change have been well documented, but the underpinning processes are still poorly understood. We present the results of a systematic literature review and meta-analysis investigating the frequency and importance of different mechanisms by which climate has impacted natural populations. Most studies were from temperate latitudes of North America and Europe; almost half investigated bird populations. We found significantly greater support for indirect, biotic mechanisms than direct, abiotic mechanisms as mediators of the impact of climate on populations. In addition, biotic effects tended to have greater support than abiotic factors in studies of species from higher trophic levels. For primary consumers, the impact of climate was equally mediated by biotic and abiotic mechanisms, whereas for higher level consumers the mechanisms were most frequently biotic, such as predation or food availability. Biotic mechanisms were more frequently supported in studies that reported a directional trend in climate than in studies with no such climatic change, although sample sizes for this comparison were small. We call for more mechanistic studies of climate change impacts on populations, particularly in tropical systems.

Difference in concentration of lead (Pb) in meat from pheasants killed using lead and iron (Fe) shotgun ammunition.

The use of lead shotgun ammunition for hunting has been banned in a few jurisdictions and habitats, principally to protect wild birds from poisoning by ingestion of spent lead shot. The EU and UK REACH processes have recently considered bans on lead ammunition throughout the European Union and United Kingdom, including assessments of possible health benefits from reduced human dietary exposure to lead from game meat. Comparisons of the mean lead concentrations in meat from gamebirds killed using lead and non­lead shotgun ammunition have not been published. We compared lead concentrations in meat from wild-shot pheasants from which lead shotgun pellets were recovered (n = 27) with those from which iron pellets were recovered (n = 20), having removed all pellets from the meat before analysis. The mean concentration of lead in meat from pheasants killed using lead shot was 2.10 mg/kg w.w., which is >20 times the European Union's maximum permitted level for the lead concentration in meat from domesticated animals. For pheasants killed using iron shot the mean was 0.07 mg/kg w.w., which is below the maximum permitted level.

Lead concentrations in commercial dogfood containing pheasant in the UK.

UK and EU regulators are evaluating the potential health benefits of restricting the use of lead ammunition. Little information is available on exposure of pets to ammunition-derived dietary lead from petfood containing meat from wild-shot game animals. We found dogfood including wild-shot pheasant meat to be widely available in the UK. 77% of samples from three raw pheasant dogfood products exceeded the EU maximum residue level (MRL) for lead in animal feed, with mean concentrations approximately 245, 135 and 49 times above the MRL. Concentrations > MRL were also found in a dried food containing pheasant, but not in a processed food, nor in chicken-based products. Lead concentrations in raw pheasant dogfood considerably exceeded those in pheasant meat sold for human consumption, possibly because the dogfood mincing process further fragmented lead particles from shot. Dogs frequently consuming such high-lead food risk adverse health effects; this should be considered within decision-making processes about regulation.

Experimental safety testing confirms that the NSAID nimesulide is toxic to Gyps vultures in India.

Population declines of Gyps vultures throughout South Asia were caused by unintentional poisoning by the NSAID diclofenac, which was subsequently banned. However, other vulture-toxic NSAIDs are available, including nimesulide, which, in experiments carried out in South Africa, was shown to be toxic to Gyps vultures. We report on safety-testing of nimesulide carried out on Himalayan Griffons G. himalayensis. We gave two vultures a dose of nimesulide by oral gavage at the maximum level of exposure, with two controls dosed with benzyl alcohol. In the two tested birds, plasma nimesulide concentrations peaked after six hours, while serum uric acid concentrations increased steadily up until 24 h post-treatment, after which both birds died, displaying severe visceral gout. The control birds showed no adverse clinical or biochemical signs. We confirm that nimesulide is toxic to Gyps vultures. Veterinary use of nimesulide should be banned in all Gyps vulture range countries in the region.

How contaminated with ammunition-derived lead is meat from European small game animals? Assessing and reducing risks to human health.

Small game animals are generally hunted with lead gunshot which often fragments causing elevated lead concentrations in meat and presenting health risks to frequent consumers and vulnerable groups. We reviewed three decades of European data on lead concentrations in the meat of gamebirds, rabbits and hares across countries with various restrictions on lead gunshot use. Mean meat lead concentrations decreased to a low level in Denmark, the only country in the study with a total ban on lead gunshot use. In contrast, elsewhere in Europe meat lead concentrations increased over time, an unexplained and previously undescribed finding. The only regulatory restriction associated with a decrease in meat lead concentrations was the Danish total ban on lead gunshot use. We calculated an arithmetic mean lead concentration in small game meat of 5.205 ppm w.w. (2011-2021) from across Europe. EU and UK regulators are considering banning lead ammunition for all hunting to protect human and wildlife health. The mean value we found for small game meat (2011-2021) was fourteen times higher than that used in a recent EU-wide risk assessment.

The non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug nimesulide kills Gyps vultures at concentrations found in the muscle of treated cattle.

Throughout South Asia, cattle are regularly treated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and their carcasses are left for scavengers to consume. Residues of the NSAID diclofenac in cattle carcasses caused widespread mortality and catastrophic population declines in three species of Gyps vulture during the 1990s and 2000s. Diclofenac is now banned, but other NSAIDs are used in its place. Different lines of evidence, including safety testing in Gyps vultures, have shown that some of these other NSAIDs are toxic, or probably toxic, to vultures. The NSAID nimesulide is widely available and commonly used, and has been found in dead vultures with signs of renal failure (i.e. visceral gout) and without the presence of diclofenac and/or other vulture-toxic NSAIDs. Nimesulide is therefore probably toxic to vultures. Here, we report safety testing of nimesulide in Gyps vultures. In a controlled toxicity experiment, we gave two vultures the maximum likely exposure (MLE) of nimesulide calculated from initial pharmacokinetic and residue experiments in cattle. Two other control birds were given an oral dose of water. Both vultures dosed with nimesulide died within 30 h, after showing outward signs of toxicity and increases in biochemical indicators of renal failure. Post-mortem examinations found extensive visceral gout in both vultures. Both control vultures survived without biochemical indicators of renal failure. With this evidence, we call for an immediate and comprehensive ban of nimesulide throughout South Asia to ensure the survival of the region's Critically Endangered vultures. More generally, testing the impacts of drugs on non-target species should be the responsibility of the pharmaceutical industry, before their veterinary use is licensed.

Metabolism of aceclofenac to diclofenac in the domestic water buffalo Bubalus bubalis confirms it as a threat to Critically Endangered Gyps vultures in South Asia.

Vulture declines in South Asia were caused by accidental poisoning by the veterinary non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) diclofenac. Although veterinary use of diclofenac has been banned, other vulture-toxic NSAIDs are legally available, including aceclofenac, which has been shown to metabolise into diclofenac in domestic cattle. We gave nine domestic water buffalo the recommended dose of aceclofenac (2 mg kg-1 body weight), collected blood at intervals up to 48 h, and carried out a pharmacokinetic analysis of aceclofenac and its metabolite diclofenac in plasma. Aceclofenac was rapidly converted to diclofenac, and was barely detectable in plasma at any sampling time. Diclofenac was present within 20 min, and peaked 4-8 h after dosing. Aceclofenac is a prodrug of diclofenac, and behaves similarly in domestic water buffalo as it did in domestic cattle, posing the same risk to vultures. We recommend an immediate ban on the veterinary use of aceclofenac across vulture-range countries.

Experimental safety testing shows that the NSAID tolfenamic acid is not toxic to Gyps vultures in India at concentrations likely to be encountered in cattle carcasses.

Population declines of Gyps vultures across the Indian subcontinent were caused by unintentional poisoning by the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) diclofenac. Subsequently, a number of other NSAIDs have been identified as toxic to vultures, while one, meloxicam, is safe at concentrations likely to be encountered by vultures in the wild. Other vulture-safe drugs need to be identified to reduce the use of those toxic to vultures. We report on safety-testing experiments on the NSAID tolfenamic acid on captive vultures of three Gyps species, all of which are susceptible to diclofenac poisoning. Firstly, we estimated the maximum level of exposure (MLE) of wild vultures and gave this dose to 40 Near Threatened Himalayan Griffons G. himalayensis by oral gavage, with 15 control birds dosed with benzyl alcohol (the carrier solution for tolfenamic acid). Two birds given tolfenamic acid died with elevated uric acid levels and severe visceral gout, while the remainder showed no adverse clinical or biochemical signs. Secondly, four G. himalayensis were fed tissues from water buffaloes which had been treated with double the recommended veterinary dose of tolfenamic acid prior to death and compared to two birds fed uncontaminated tissue; none suffered any clinical effects. Finally, two captive Critically Endangered vultures, one G. bengalensis and one G. indicus, were given the MLE dose by gavage and compared to two control birds; again, none suffered any clinical effects. The death of two G. himalayensis may have been an anomaly due to i) the high dose level used and ii) the high ambient temperatures at the time of the experiment. Tolfenamic acid is likely to be safe to Gyps vultures at concentrations encountered by wild birds and could therefore be promoted as a safe alternative to toxic NSAIDs. It is manufactured in the region, and is increasingly being used to treat livestock.

Climatic change and extinction risk of two globally threatened Ethiopian endemic bird species.

Climate change is having profound effects on the distributions of species globally. Trait-based assessments predict that specialist and range-restricted species are among those most likely to be at risk of extinction from such changes. Understanding individual species' responses to climate change is therefore critical for informing conservation planning. We use an established Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) protocol to describe the curious range-restriction of the globally threatened White-tailed Swallow (Hirundo megaensis) to a small area in southern Ethiopia. We find that, across a range of modelling approaches, the distribution of this species is well described by two climatic variables, maximum temperature and dry season precipitation. These same two variables have been previously found to limit the distribution of the unrelated but closely sympatric Ethiopian Bush-crow (Zavattariornis stresemanni). We project the future climatic suitability for both species under a range of climate scenarios and modelling approaches. Both species are at severe risk of extinction within the next half century, as the climate in 68-84% (for the swallow) and 90-100% (for the bush-crow) of their current ranges is predicted to become unsuitable. Intensive conservation measures, such as assisted migration and captive-breeding, may be the only options available to safeguard these two species. Their projected disappearance in the wild offers an opportunity to test the reliability of SDMs for predicting the fate of wild species. Monitoring future changes in the distribution and abundance of the bush-crow is particularly tractable because its nests are conspicuous and visible over large distances.

Conservation genetics, foraging distance and nest density of the scarce Great Yellow Bumblebee (Bombus distinguendus).

The conservation genetics of bees is of particular interest because many bee species are in decline, so jeopardizing the essential ecosystem service of plant pollination that they provide. In addition, as social haplodiploids, inbred bees may be vulnerable to the extra genetic load represented by the production of sterile diploid males. Using microsatellite markers, we investigated the genetic structure of populations of the Great Yellow Bumblebee (Bombus distinguendus Morawitz) in the UK, where this species has undergone a precipitous decline. By means of a mixture of analytical methods and simulation, we also extended--and then applied--genetic methods for estimating foraging distance and nest density in wild bees. B. distinguendus populations were characterized by low expected heterozygosity and allelic richness, inbreeding coefficients not significantly different from zero, absence of detected diploid males, absence of substantial demographic bottlenecking, and population substructuring at large (c. 100+ km) but not small (10s of km) spatial scales. The minimum average effective population size at our sampling sites was low (c. 25). In coastal grassland (machair), the estimated modal foraging distance of workers was 391 m, with 95% of foraging activity occurring within 955 m of the nest, and estimated nest density was 19.3 nests km(-2). These findings show that B. distinguendus exhibits some genetic features of scarce, declining or fragmented populations. Moreover, B. distinguendus workers appear to forage over above-average distances and nests remain thinly distributed even in current strongholds. These considerations should inform future conservation actions for this and similar species.

Extinction risk from climate change.

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.