Resumption of ovulation in anovulatory women with PCOS and obesity is associated with reduction of 11ß-hydroxyandrostenedione concentrations.

STUDY QUESTION: Is resumption of ovulation after a 6-month lifestyle intervention in women with PCOS and obesity associated with differential changes in endocrine and metabolic parameters (weight, insulin resistance, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), and androgens) compared to women with PCOS who remained anovulatory? SUMMARY ANSWER: Resumption of ovulation after a 6-month lifestyle intervention in women with PCOS and obesity is associated with changes in serum 11ß-hydroxyandrostenedione (11OHA4) concentrations. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Lifestyle interventions have been shown to reduce clinical and biochemical hyperandrogenism in women with PCOS. Weight loss of 5-10% may reverse anovulatory status, thereby increasing natural conception rates. However, the mechanisms underlying why some women with PCOS remain anovulatory and others resume ovulation after weight loss are unclear. Reproductive characteristics at baseline and a greater degree of change in endocrine and metabolic features with lifestyle intervention may be crucial for ovulatory response. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We used data and samples originating from an earlier randomized controlled trial (RCT), which examined the efficacy of a 6-month lifestyle intervention prior to infertility treatment compared to prompt infertility treatment on live birth rate in women with obesity. A total of 577 women with obesity (BMI > 29 kg/m2) were randomized between 2009 and 2012. Anovulatory women with PCOS who were allocated to the intervention arm of the original RCT (n = 95) were included in the current analysis. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We defined women as having resumed ovulation (RO+) based on the following criteria: spontaneous pregnancy; or assignment to expectant management; or IUI in natural cycles as the treatment strategy after lifestyle intervention. Steroid hormones were measured using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Generalized estimating equations with adjustment for baseline measures and interaction between group and time was used to examine differences in changes of endocrine and metabolic parameters between RO+ (n = 34) and persistently anovulatory women (RO-, n = 61) at 3 and 6 months after intervention. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: At baseline, the mean ± SD age was 27.5 ± 3.6 years in the RO+ group and 27.9 ± 4.1 years in the RO- group (P = 0.65), and the mean ± SD weights were 101.2 ± 9.5 kg and 105.0 ± 14.6 kg, respectively (P = 0.13). Baseline AMH concentrations showed significant differences between RO+ and RO- women (median and interquartile range [IQR] 4.7 [3.2; 8.3] versus 7.2 [5.3; 10.8] ng/ml, respectively). Baseline androgen concentrations did not differ between the two groups. During and after lifestyle intervention, both groups showed weight loss; changes in 11OHA4 were significantly different between the RO+ and RO groups (P-value for interaction = 0.03). There was a similar trend for SHBG (interaction P-value = 0.07), and DHEA-S (interaction P-value = 0.06), with the most pronounced differences observed in the first 3 months. Other parameters, such as AMH and FAI, decreased over time but with no difference between the groups. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: No high-resolution transvaginal ultrasonography was used to confirm ovulatory status at the end of the lifestyle program. The small sample size may limit the robustness of the results. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Reduction of androgen concentrations during and after lifestyle intervention is associated with recovery of ovulatory cycles. If our results are confirmed in other studies, androgen concentrations could be monitored during lifestyle intervention to provide individualized recommendations on the timing of resumption of ovulation in anovulatory women with PCOS and obesity. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The study was supported by a grant from ZonMw, the Dutch Organization for Health Research and Development (50-50110-96-518). The Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of the UMCG received an unrestricted educational grant from Ferring Pharmaceuticals BV, The Netherlands. A.H. reports consultancy for the development and implementation of a lifestyle App MyFertiCoach developed by Ferring Pharmaceutical Company. All other authors have no conflicts to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The LIFEstyle RCT was registered at the Dutch trial registry (NTR 1530).

Thin endometrial lining: is it more prevalent in patients utilizing preimplantation genetic testing for monogenic disease (PGT-M) and related to prior hormonal contraceptive use?

STUDY QUESTION: Is a thin endometrial lining before ovulation triggering more prevalent in patients utilizing preimplantation genetic testing for monogenic disease (PGT-M) compared to the regular IVF/ICSI population and is this associated with prior hormonal contraceptive use? SUMMARY ANSWER: Thin (<8 mm) endometrial lining is more prevalent in PGT-M patients compared to the regular IVF/ICSI population and is associated with both longer prior hormonal contraceptive use and a shorter cessation interval of hormonal contraceptives before IVF/ICSI treatment. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Thin endometrial lining has been associated with lower pregnancy rates in IVF/ICSI cycles and increased chances of miscarriage and low birth weight. Endometrial thinning and atrophy occur during hormonal contraceptive use. Patients utilizing PGT-M typically use hormonal contraceptives up until treatment to avoid the risk of conception of a genetically affected child. Whether this could negatively affect endometrial thickness achieved during subsequent IVF/ICSI cycles is not known. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A retrospective case control study was performed, including all PGT-M patients attending the University Medical Centre Groningen (cases), between 2009 and 2018. The control group consisted of two non-PGT IVF/ICSI patients for each PGT-M patient, matched for age and treatment period. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: First cycles of 122 PGT-M patients and 240 controls were included. Cessation interval of hormonal contraceptives was categorized as late cessation (cessation <1 year prior to treatment) or early cessation (>1 year prior to treatment). Endometrial thickness was routinely measured on the day of hCG triggering or 1 day prior. The prevalence of an endometrial lining <8 mm was compared between PGT-M patients and controls. Hormonal contraceptive use (both duration and cessation interval) was compared between both groups. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for thin endometrial lining. In addition, cycle and pregnancy outcomes were compared within control/PGT-M groups between patients with endometrial lining > or <8 mm. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Thin endometrial lining on the day of hCG triggering was found significantly more often in the PGT-M group, compared to controls: 32% vs 11% (mean difference 21.0%, 95% CI: 11.7, 30.3%). As expected, more patients in the PGT-M group ceased their hormonal contraception late (<1 year): 64% vs 2% in the control group (mean difference 61.9%, 95% CI: 53.0, 70.8%). Average duration of hormonal contraceptive use was 10.6 years in the PGT-M group vs 9.3 years in controls (mean difference 1.3 years, 95% CI: 0.2, 2.3 years). Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified late cessation (OR: 6.0, 95% CI: 1.9-19.2) and duration of prior hormonal contraceptive use (OR per year increase 1.1, 95% CI: 1.0-1.2) as significant independent risk factors for a thin endometrial lining. In relation to outcome, we found a statistically significant increase in miscarriage rate in PGT-M patients with an endometrial lining <8 mm compared to those with an endometrial lining >8 mm (20.0% vs 1.7%, mean difference 18.3%, 95% CI: 2.3, 34.3%). A trend towards lower birth weight and gestation- and gender-adjusted birth weight (z-score) was also found in this group. No statistically significant differences were detected in pregnancy rate, live birth rate, or incidence of preterm delivery or SGA. Within the control group, no statistically significant differences were found in outcomes between patients with an endometrial lining <8 compared to an endometrial lining >8 mm. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The study is retrospective. Various types of hormonal contraceptives were reported which possibly exert different effects on the endometrial lining. In relation to pregnancy outcome measures, numbers were very limited; therefore, no firm conclusions should be drawn. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study provides further insight into the role of prior hormonal contraceptive use as a possible contributor to the occurrence of thin endometrial lining during ART treatment. Future studies should provide more information on its clinical relevance, to determine whether PGT-M patients can be reassured, or should be counselled to stop hormonal contraceptive use and change to an alternative contraceptive method prior to PGT treatment. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: No specific funding was used and no conflicts of interests are declared. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Effect of intrapartum epidural analgesia on rate of emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise: nationwide registry-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the rate of emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise after epidural analgesia (EDA) compared with that after alternative analgesia or no analgesia, and to assess whether this rate is increased in pregnancies with reduced placental reserve. METHODS: This was a nationwide registry-based cohort study of 629 951 singleton pregnancies delivered at 36 + 0 to 42 + 0 weeks of gestation that were recorded in the Dutch national birth registry between 2014 and 2018, including 120 426 cases that received EDA, 86 957 that received alternative analgesia and 422 568 that received no analgesia during labor. Pregnancies with congenital anomaly, chromosomal abnormality, fetal demise, planned Cesarean delivery, non-cephalic presentation at delivery and use of multiple forms of analgesia were excluded. The primary outcome was emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise. Secondary outcomes included delivery characteristics and neonatal outcome. Negative binomial regression analysis was stratified by parity and results are presented according to birth-weight centile, after adjusting for confounding. RESULTS: Among women who received EDA, 13.2% underwent emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise, compared with 4.1% of women who had no analgesia (relative risk (RR), 3.23 (95% CI, 3.16-3.31)) and 7.0% of women who received alternative analgesia (RR, 1.72 (95% CI, 1.67-1.77)). Independent of birth weight, the RR of presumed fetal compromise after EDA vs no analgesia was higher in parous women (adjusted RR (aRR), 2.15 (95% CI, 2.04-2.27)) compared with nulliparous women (RR, 1.88 (95% CI, 1.84-1.94)). Stratified for parity, the effect of EDA was modified significantly by birth-weight centile (interaction P-value, < 0.001 for nulliparous and 0.004 for parous women). The emergency delivery rate following EDA was highest in those with a birth weight < 5th centile (25.2% of nulliparous and 16.6% of parous women), falling with each increasing birth-weight centile category up to the 91st -95th centile (11.8% of nulliparous and 7.2% of parous women). CONCLUSIONS: Intrapartum EDA is associated with a higher risk of emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise compared with no analgesia and alternative analgesia, after adjusting for relevant confounding. The highest rate of emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise was observed at the lowest birth-weight centiles. RRs of emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise after EDA were modestly but consistently modified by birth-weight centile, supporting the hypothesis that the adverse effects of EDA are exacerbated by reduced placental function. While EDA provides effective pain relief during labor, alternative strategies for pain management may be preferable in pregnancies with a high background risk of fetal compromise. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Epidural analgesia and emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise: post-hoc analysis of RAVEL multicenter randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between epidural analgesia (EDA) vs patient-controlled remifentanil analgesia (PCRA) and emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise, in relation to birth-weight quintile. METHODS: This was a post-hoc per-protocol analysis of the RAVEL multicenter equivalence randomized controlled trial. Non-anomalous singleton pregnancies between 36 + 0 and 42 + 6 weeks' gestation were randomized at the time of requesting pain relief to receive EDA or PCRA. The primary outcome was emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise. Secondary outcomes included mode of delivery and neonatal outcomes. Analysis was performed according to birth-weight quintile and was corrected for relevant confounding variables. RESULTS: Of 619 pregnant women, 336 received PCRA and 283 received EDA. Among women receiving EDA, 14.8% had an emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise, compared with 8.3% of women who received PCRA. After adjusting for parity, women receiving EDA had higher odds of presumed fetal compromise compared to those receiving PCRA (odds ratio, 1.69 (95% CI, 1.01-2.83)). A statistically significant linear-by-linear association was observed between presumed fetal compromise and birth-weight quintile (P = 0.003). The incidence of emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise was highest in women receiving EDA and delivering a neonate with a birth weight in the lowest quintile. CONCLUSIONS: Intrapartum EDA is associated with a higher rate of emergency delivery for presumed fetal compromise compared to treatment with PCRA. Birth-weight quintile is a strong predictor of this outcome, independent of pain management method. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

89Zr-pembrolizumab imaging as a non-invasive approach to assess clinical response to PD-1 blockade in cancer.

BACKGROUND: Programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) antibody treatment is standard of care for melanoma and non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Accurately predicting which patients will benefit is currently not possible. Tumor uptake and biodistribution of the PD-1 antibody might play a role. Therefore, we carried out a positron emission tomography (PET) imaging study with zirconium-89 (89Zr)-labeled pembrolizumab before PD-1 antibody treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with advanced or metastatic melanoma or NSCLC received 37 MBq (1 mCi) 89Zr-pembrolizumab (∼2.5 mg antibody) intravenously plus 2.5 or 7.5 mg unlabeled pembrolizumab. After that, up to three PET scans were carried out on days 2, 4, and 7. Next, PD-1 antibody treatment was initiated. 89Zr-pembrolizumab tumor uptake was calculated as maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and expressed as geometric mean. Normal organ uptake was calculated as SUVmean and expressed as a mean. Tumor response was assessed according to (i)RECIST v1.1. RESULTS: Eighteen patients, 11 with melanoma and 7 with NSCLC, were included. The optimal dose was 5 mg pembrolizumab, and the optimal time point for PET scanning was day 7. The tumor SUVmax did not differ between melanoma and NSCLC (4.9 and 6.5, P = 0.49). Tumor 89Zr-pembrolizumab uptake correlated with tumor response (P trend = 0.014) and progression-free (P = 0.0025) and overall survival (P = 0.026). 89Zr-pembrolizumab uptake at 5 mg was highest in the spleen with a mean SUVmean of 5.8 (standard deviation ±1.8). There was also 89Zr-pembrolizumab uptake in Waldeyer's ring, in normal lymph nodes, and at sites of inflammation. CONCLUSION: 89Zr-pembrolizumab uptake in tumor lesions correlated with treatment response and patient survival. 89Zr-pembrolizumab also showed uptake in lymphoid tissues and at sites of inflammation.

Z-scores of fetal bladder size for antenatal differential diagnosis between posterior urethral valves and urethral atresia.

OBJECTIVE: To construct reference values for fetal urinary bladder distension in pregnancy and use Z-scores as a diagnostic tool to differentiate posterior urethral valves (PUV) from urethral atresia (UA). METHODS: This was a prospective cross-sectional study in healthy singleton pregnancies aimed at constructing nomograms of fetal urinary bladder diameter and volume between 15 and 35 weeks' gestation. Z-scores of longitudinal bladder diameter (LBD) were calculated and validated in a cohort of fetuses with megacystis with ascertained postnatal or postmortem diagnosis, collected from a retrospective, multicenter study. Correlations between anatomopathological findings, based on medical examination of the infant or postmortem examination, and fetal megacystis were established. The accuracy of the Z-scores was evaluated by receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC)-curve analysis. RESULTS: Nomograms of fetal urinary bladder diameter and volume were produced from three-dimensional ultrasound volumes in 225 pregnant women between 15 and 35 weeks of gestation. A total of 1238 urinary bladder measurements were obtained. Z-scores, derived from the fetal nomograms, were calculated in 106 cases with suspected lower urinary tract obstruction (LUTO), including 76 (72%) cases with PUV, 22 (21%) cases with UA, four (4%) cases with urethral stenosis and four (4%) cases with megacystis-microcolon-intestinal hypoperistalsis syndrome. Fetuses with PUV showed a significantly lower LBD Z-score compared to those with UA (3.95 vs 8.83, P < 0.01). On ROC-curve analysis, we identified 5.2 as the optimal Z-score cut-off to differentiate fetuses with PUV from the rest of the study population (area under the curve, 0.84 (95% CI, 0.748-0.936); P < 0.01; sensitivity, 74%; specificity, 86%). CONCLUSIONS: Z-scores of LBD can distinguish reliably fetuses with LUTO caused by PUV from those with other subtypes of LUTO, with an optimal cut-off of 5.2. This information should be useful for prenatal counseling and management of LUTO. © 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Early N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is associated with cardiac complications and function during pregnancy in congenital heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels at 20 weeks' gestation predict adverse cardiovascular (CV) complications during pregnancy in women with congenital heart disease (CHD). To improve early risk assessment in these women, we investigated the predictive value of first-trimester NT-proBNP for CV complications and its association with ventricular function during pregnancy. METHODS: Pregnant women with CHD, previously enrolled in a prospective national study or evaluated by an identical protocol, were included. Clinical data, echocardiographic evaluation and NT-proBNP measurements were obtained at 12, 20 and 32 weeks' gestation. Elevated NT-proBNP was defined as > 235 pg/ml (95th percentile reference value of healthy pregnant women in the literature). RESULTS: We examined 126 females (mean age 29 years). Elevated NT-proBNP at 12 weeks was associated with CV complications (n = 7, 5.6%, odds ratio 10.9, p = 0.004). Arrhythmias were the most common complication (71%). The negative predictive value of low NT-proBNP to exclude CV complications was 97.2%. In women with CV complications, NT-proBNP levels remained high throughout pregnancy, while a decrease was seen in women without CV complications (p < 0.001 for interaction between group and time). At 12 weeks, higher NT-proBNP levels were associated with impaired subpulmonary ventricular function (p < 0.001) and also with a decline in subpulmonary ventricular function later in pregnancy (p = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, first-trimester NT-proBNP levels were associated with adverse CV complications and a decline in subpulmonary ventricular function later in pregnancy in women with CHD. Early NT-proBNP evaluation is useful for tailored care in pregnant women with CHD.

Cost-effectiveness of medically assisted reproduction or expectant management for unexplained subfertility: when to start treatment?

STUDY QUESTION: Over a time period of 3 years, which order of expectant management (EM), IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) and IVF is the most cost-effective for couples with unexplained subfertility with the female age below 38 years? SUMMARY ANSWER: If a live birth is considered worth €32 000 or less, 2 years of EM followed by IVF was the most cost-effective, whereas above €32 000 this was 1 year of EM, 1 year of IUI-OS and then 1 year of IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: IUI-OS and IVF are commonly used fertility treatments for unexplained subfertility although many couples can conceive naturally, as no identifiable barrier to conception could be found by definition. Few countries have guidelines on when to proceed with medically assisted reproduction (MAR), mostly based on the expected probability of live birth after treatment, but there is a lack of evidence to support the strategies proposed by these guidelines. The increased uptake of IUI-OS and IVF over the past decades and costs related to reimbursement of these treatments are pressing concerns to health service providers. For MAR to remain affordable, sustainable and a responsible use of public funds, guidance is needed on the cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies for unexplained subfertility, including EM. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We developed a decision analytic Markov model that follows couples with unexplained subfertility of which the woman is under 38 years of age for a time period of 3 years from completion of the fertility workup onwards. We divided the time axis of 3 years into three separate periods, each comprising 1 year. The model was based on contemporary evidence, most notably the dynamic prediction model for natural conception, which was combined with MAR treatment effects from a network meta-analysis on randomized controlled trials. We changed the order of options for managing unexplained subfertility for the 1 year periods to yield five different treatment policies in total: IVF-EM-EM (immediate IVF), EM-IVF-EM (delayed IVF), EM-EM-IVF (postponed IVF), IUIOS-IVF-EM (immediate IUI-OS) and EM-IUIOS-IVF (delayed IUI-OS). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The main outcomes per policy over the 3-year period were the probability of live birth, the average treatment and delivery costs, the probability of multiple pregnancy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and finally, which policy yields the highest net benefit in which costs for a policy were deducted from the health effects, i.e. live births gained. We chose the Dutch societal perspective, but the model can be easily modified for other locations or other perspectives. The probability of live birth after EM was taken from the dynamic prediction model for natural conception and updated for Years 2 and 3. The relative effects of IUI-OS and IVF in terms of odds ratios, taken from the network meta-analysis, were applied to the probability of live birth after EM. We applied standard discounting procedures for economic analyses for Years 2 and 3. The uncertainty around effectiveness, costs and other parameters was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis in which we drew values from distributions and repeated this procedure 20 000 times. In addition, we changed model assumptions to assess their influence on our results. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: From IVF-EM-EM to EM-IUIOS-IVF, the probability of live birth varied from approximately 54-64% and the average costs from approximately €4000 to €9000. The policies IVF-EM-EM and EM-IVF-EM were dominated by EM-EM-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. The policy IUIOS-IVF-EM was dominated by EM-IUIOS-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. After removal of policies that were dominated, the ICER for EM-IUIOS-IVF was approximately €31 000 compared to EM-EM-IVF. The range of ICER values between the lowest 25% and highest 75% of simulation replications was broad. The net benefit curve showed that when we assume a live birth to be worth approximately €20 000 or less, the policy EM-EM-IVF had the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit. Between €20 000 and €50 000 monetary value per live birth, it was uncertain whether EM-EM-IVF was better than EM-IUIOS-IVF, with the turning point of €32 000. When we assume a monetary value per live birth over €50 000, the policy with the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit was EM-IUIOS-IVF. Results for subgroups with different baseline prognoses showed the same policies dominated and the same two policies that were the most likely to achieve the highest net benefit but at different threshold values for the assumed monetary value per live birth. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our model focused on population level and was thus based on average costs for the average number of cycles conducted. We also based the model on a number of key assumptions. We changed model assumptions to assess the influence of these assumptions on our results. The change in relative effectiveness of IVF over time was found to be highly influential on results and their interpretation. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: EM-EM-IVF and EM-IUIOS-IVF followed by IVF were the most cost-effective policies. The choice depends on the monetary value assigned to a live birth. The results of our study can be used in discussions between clinicians, couples and policy makers to decide on a sustainable treatment protocol based on the probability of live birth, the costs and the limitations of MAR treatment. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was supported by the ZonMw Doelmatigheidsonderzoek (80-85200-98-91072). The funder had no role in the design, conduct or reporting of this work. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck KGaA and Guerbet and travel and research support from ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Impact of Hypertension and Preeclampsia Intervention Trial At Near Term-I (HYPITAT-I) on obstetric management and outcome in The Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE: The Hypertension and Preeclampsia Intervention Trial At near Term-I (HYPITAT-I) randomized controlled trial showed that, in women with gestational hypertension or mild pre-eclampsia at term, induction of labor, compared with expectant management, was associated with improved maternal outcome without compromising neonatal outcome. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the impact of these findings on obstetric management and maternal and perinatal outcomes in The Netherlands. METHODS: We retrieved data for the period 2000-2014 from the Dutch National Perinatal Registry, including 143 749 women with gestational hypertension or pre-eclampsia and a singleton fetus in cephalic presentation, delivered between 36 + 0 and 40 + 6 weeks of gestation (hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) group). Pregnant women without HDP were used as the reference group (n = 1 649 510). The HYPITAT-I trial was conducted between 2005 and 2008. To study the impact of HYPITAT-I, we compared rate of induction of labor, mode of delivery and maternal and perinatal outcomes in the periods before (2000-2005) and after (2008-2014) the trial. We also differentiated between hospitals that participated in HYPITAT-I and those that did not. RESULTS: In the HDP group, the rate of induction of labor increased from 51.1% before the HYPITAT-I trial to 64.2% after it (relative risk (RR), 1.26; 95% CI, 1.24-1.27). Maternal mortality decreased from 0.022% before the trial to 0.004% after it (RR, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.06-0.70) and perinatal death decreased from 0.49% to 0.27% (RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.45-0.65), which was attributable mostly to a decrease in fetal death. Both the increase in induction rate and the reduction in hypertensive complications were more pronounced in hospitals that participated in the HYPITAT-I trial than in those that did not. Following HYPITAT-I, the rate of induction of labor also increased (by 4.6 percentage points) in the reference group; however, the relative increase in the HDP group (13.1 percentage points) was significantly greater (P < 0.001 for the interaction). The reduction in maternal and perinatal deaths did not differ significantly between the HDP and reference groups. There was a decreased incidence of placental abruption in both HDP and reference groups, which was significantly greater in the HDP than in the reference group (P < 0.001 for the interaction). There was also an increased incidence of emergency Cesarean section in both HDP and reference groups; however, this change was significantly greater in the reference than in the HDP group (P < 0.001 for the interaction). CONCLUSION: Following the HYPITAT-I trial, there was a higher rate of induction of labor and improved obstetric outcome in term pregnancies complicated by HDP in The Netherlands. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Preconception lifestyle intervention reduces long term energy intake in women with obesity and infertility: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The preconceptional period may be an optimal window of opportunity to improve lifestyle. We previously showed that a 6 month preconception lifestyle intervention among women with obesity and infertility was successful in decreasing the intake of high caloric snacks and beverages, increasing physical activity and in reducing weight in the short term. We now report the effects of the preconception lifestyle intervention on diet, physical activity and body mass index (BMI) at 5.5 years (range = 3.7-7.0 years) after the intervention. METHODS: We followed women who participated in the LIFEstyle study, a multicentre RCT in which women with obesity and infertility were assigned to a six-month lifestyle intervention program or prompt infertility treatment (N = 577). Diet and physical activity 5.5 years later were assessed with an 173-item food frequency questionnaire (N = 175) and Actigraph triaxial accelerometers (N = 155), respectively. BMI was calculated from self-reported weight and previously measured height (N = 179). Dietary intake, physical activity, and BMI in the intervention and control group were compared using multivariate regression models. Additionally, dietary intake, physical activity and BMI of women allocated to the intervention arm with successful weight loss during the intervention (i.e. BMI < 29 kg/m2 or ≥ 5% weight loss), unsuccessful weight loss and the control group were compared with ANCOVA. RESULTS: Although BMI did not differ between the intervention and control group 5.5 years after the intervention (- 0.5 kg/m2 [- 2.0;1.1]; P = 0.56), the intervention group did report a lower energy intake (- 216 kcal/day [- 417;-16]; P = 0.04). Women in the intervention arm who successfully lost weight during the intervention had a significantly lower BMI at follow-up compared to women in the intervention arm who did not lose weight successfully (- 3.4 kg/m2 [- 6.3;-0.6]; P = 0.01), and they reported a significantly lower energy intake compared to the control group (- 301 kcal [- 589;-14]; P = 0.04). Macronutrient intake, diet quality, and physical activity did not differ between the intervention and control group, irrespective of successful weight loss during the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: In our study population, a preconception lifestyle intervention led to reduced energy intake 5.5 years later. Additionally, women allocated to the intervention group who were successful in losing weight during the intervention also had a lower BMI at follow-up. This shows the potential sustainable effect of a preconception lifestyle intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered on 16 November 2008 in the Dutch trial register; clinical trial registry number NTR1530 .

Delivery or expectant management for prevention of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes in hypertensive disorders of pregnancy: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Hypertensive disorders affect 3-10% of pregnancies. Delayed delivery carries maternal risks, while early delivery increases fetal risk, so appropriate timing is important. The aim of this study was to compare immediate delivery with expectant management for prevention of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes in women with hypertensive disease in pregnancy. METHODS: CENTRAL, PubMed, MEDLINE and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched for randomized controlled trials comparing immediate delivery to expectant management in women presenting with gestational hypertension or pre-eclampsia without severe features from 34 weeks of gestation. The primary neonatal outcome was respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) and the primary maternal outcome was a composite of HELLP syndrome and eclampsia. The PRISMA-IPD guideline was followed and a two-stage meta-analysis approach was used. Relative risks (RR) and numbers needed to treat or harm (NNT/NNH) with 95% CI were calculated to evaluate the effect of the intervention. RESULTS: Main outcomes were available for 1724 eligible women. Compared with expectant management, immediate delivery reduced the composite risk of HELLP syndrome and eclampsia in all women (0.8% vs 2.8%; RR, 0.33 (95% CI, 0.15-0.73); I2  = 0%; NNT, 51 (95% CI, 31.1-139.3)) as well as in the pre-eclampsia subgroup (1.1% vs 3.5%; RR, 0.39 (95% CI, 0.15-0.98); I2  = 0%). Immediate delivery increased RDS risk (3.4% vs 1.6%; RR, 1.94 (95% CI 1.05-3.6); I2  = 24%; NNH, 58 (95% CI, 31.1-363.1)), but depended upon gestational age. Immediate delivery in the 35th week of gestation increased RDS risk (5.1% vs 0.6%; RR, 5.5 (95% CI, 1.0-29.6); I2  = 0%), but immediate delivery in the 36th week did not (1.5% vs 0.4%; RR, 3.4 (95% CI, 0.4-30.3); I2 not applicable). CONCLUSION: In women with hypertension in pregnancy, immediate delivery reduces the risk of maternal complications, whilst the effect on the neonate depends on gestational age. Specifically, women with a-priori higher risk of progression to HELLP, such as those already presenting with pre-eclampsia instead of gestational hypertension, were shown to benefit from earlier delivery. © 2019 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Maternal right ventricular function, uteroplacental circulation in first trimester and pregnancy outcome in women with congenital heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: Pregnant women with congenital heart disease (CHD) have an increased risk of abnormal uteroplacental flow, measured from the second trimester onwards, which is associated with pregnancy complications affecting the mother and the fetus. Maternal right ventricular (RV) dysfunction has been suggested as a predisposing factor for impaired uteroplacental flow in these women. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of first-trimester uteroplacental flow measurements with prepregnancy maternal cardiac function and pregnancy complications in women with CHD, with particular focus on the potential role of RV (dys)function. METHODS: This study included 138 pregnant women with CHD from the prospective ZAHARA III study (Zwangerschap bij Aangeboren HARtAfwijkingen; Pregnancy and CHD). Prepregnancy clinical and echocardiographic data were collected. Clinical evaluation, echocardiography (focused on RV function, as assessed by tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE)) and uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI) measurements were performed at 12, 20 and 32 weeks of gestation. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were performed to assess the association between prepregnancy variables and UtA-PI during pregnancy. The association between UtA-PI at 12 weeks and cardiovascular, obstetric and neonatal complications was also assessed. RESULTS: On multivariable regression analysis, prepregnancy TAPSE was associated negatively with UtA-PI at 12 weeks of gestation (ß = -0.026; P = 0.036). Women with lower prepregnancy TAPSE (≤ 20 mm vs > 20 mm) had higher UtA-PI at 12 weeks (1.5 ± 0.5 vs 1.2 ± 0.6; P = 0.047). Increased UtA-PI at 12 weeks was associated with obstetric complications (P = 0.003), particularly hypertensive disorders (pregnancy-induced hypertension and pre-eclampsia, P = 0.019 and P = 0.026, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In women with CHD, RV dysfunction before pregnancy seems to impact placentation, resulting in increased resistance in UtA flow, which is detectable as early as in the first trimester. This, in turn, is associated with pregnancy complications. Early monitoring of uteroplacental flow might be of value in women with CHD with pre-existing subclinical RV dysfunction to identify pregnancies that would benefit from close obstetric surveillance. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Molecular Tumor Boards: current practice and future needs.

BACKGROUND: Due to rapid technical advances, steeply declining sequencing costs, and the ever-increasing number of targeted therapies, it can be expected that extensive tumor sequencing such as whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing will soon be applied in standard care. Clinicians will thus be confronted with increasingly complex genetic information and multiple test-platforms to choose from. General medical training, meanwhile, can hardly keep up with the pace of innovation. Consequently, there is a rapidly growing gap between clinical knowledge and genetic potential in cancer care. Multidisciplinary Molecular Tumor Boards (MTBs) have been suggested as a means to address this disparity, but shared experiences are scarce in literature and no quality requirements or guidelines have been published to date. METHODS: Based on literature review, a survey among hospitals in The Netherlands, and our own experience with the establishment of a nationally operating MTB, this article evaluates current knowledge and unmet needs and lays out a strategy for successful MTB implementation. RESULTS: Having access to an MTB can improve and increase the application of genetics-guided cancer care. In our survey, however, <50% of hospitals and only 5% of nonacademic hospitals had access to an MTB. In addition, current MTBs vary widely in terms of composition, tasks, tools, and workflow. This may not only lead to variation in quality of care but also hinders data sharing and thus creation of an effective learning community. CONCLUSIONS: This article acknowledges a leading role for MTBs to govern (extensive) tumor sequencing into daily practice and proposes three basic necessities for successful MTB implementation: (i) global harmonization in cancer sequencing practices and procedures, (ii) minimal member and operational requirements, and (iii) an appropriate unsolicited findings policy. Meeting these prerequisites would not only optimize MTB functioning but also improve general interpretation and application of genomics-guided cancer care.

Chromosomal abnormalities in 1663 infertile men with azoospermia: the clinical consequences.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the prevalence of chromosomal abnormalities in azoospermic men and what are the clinical consequences in terms of increased risk for absent spermatogenesis, miscarriages and offspring with congenital malformations? SUMMARY ANSWER: The prevalence of chromosomal abnormalities in azoospermia was 14.4%, and the number of azoospermic men needed to be screened (NNS) to identify one man with a chromosomal abnormality with increased risk for absence of spermatogenesis was 72, to prevent one miscarriage 370-739 and to prevent one child with congenital malformations 4751-23 757. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Infertility guidelines worldwide advise screening of non-iatrogenic azoospermic men for chromosomal abnormalities, but only few data are available on the clinical consequences of this screening strategy. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This retrospective multicentre cross-sectional study of non-iatrogenic azoospermic men was performed at the University Hospital Brussels, Belgium, and the University Medical Centre Groningen, The Netherlands, between January 2000 and July 2016. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Analysis of clinical registries retrospectively identified 1663 non-iatrogenic azoospermic men with available results of karyotyping and FSH serum levels. Iatrogenic azoospermia was an exclusion criterion, defined as azoospermia after spermatotoxic medical treatment, exogenous androgen suppletion or vasectomy and/or vasovasostomy. Also, men with a clinical diagnosis of anejaculation or hypogonadotropic hypo-androgenism and/or FSH values <1.0 U/l were excluded. Chromosomal abnormalities were categorized according to their (theoretical) impact on clinical consequences for the patient (i.e. an increased risk for absence of spermatogenesis) and adverse pregnancy outcomes (i.e. miscarriage or offspring with congenital malformations), in both normogonadotropic (FSH < 10 U/l) and hypergonadotropic (FSH ≥ 10 U/l) azoospermia. We estimated the NNS for chromosomal abnormalities to identify one man with absence of spermatogenesis and to prevent one miscarriage or one child with congenital malformations, and calculated the surgical sperm retrieval rates per chromosomal abnormality. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The overall prevalence of chromosomal abnormalities in azoospermia was 14.4% (95% CI 12.7-16.1%), its prevalence being higher in hypergonadotropic azoospermia (20.2%, 95% CI 17.8-22.7%) compared to normogonadotropic azoospermia (4.9%, 95% CI 3.2-6.6%, P < 0.001). Klinefelter syndrome accounted for 83% (95% CI 77-87%) of abnormalities in hypergonadotropic azoospermia. The NNS to identify one man with increased risk for absence of spermatogenesis was 72, to prevent one miscarriage 370-739, and to prevent one child with congenital malformations 4751-23 757. There was no clinically significant difference in NNS between men with normogonadotropic and hypergonadotropic azoospermia. The surgical sperm retrieval rate was significantly higher in azoospermic men with a normal karyotype (60%, 95% CI 57.7-63.1%) compared to men with a chromosomal abnormality (32%, 95% CI 25.9-39.0%, P < 0.001). The sperm retrieval rate in Klinefelter syndrome was 28% (95% CI 20.7-35.0%). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The absolute number of chromosomal abnormalities associated with clinical consequences and adverse pregnancy outcomes in our study was limited, thereby increasing the role of chance. Further, as there are currently no large series on outcomes of pregnancies in men with chromosomal abnormalities, our conclusions are partly based on assumptions derived from the literature. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The NNS found can be used in future cost-effectiveness studies and the evaluation of current guidelines on karyotyping in non-iatrogenic azoospermia. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): None to declare.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of lifestyle intervention in obese infertile women.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle intervention preceding infertility treatment in obese infertile women? SUMMARY ANSWER: Lifestyle intervention preceding infertility treatment as compared to prompt infertility treatment in obese infertile women is not a cost-effective strategy in terms of healthy live birth rate within 24 months after randomization, but is more likely to be cost-effective using a longer follow-up period and live birth rate as endpoint. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: In infertile couples, obesity decreases conception chances. We previously showed that lifestyle intervention prior to infertility treatment in obese infertile women did not increase the healthy singleton vaginal live birth rate at term, but increased natural conceptions, especially in anovulatory women. Cost-effectiveness analyses could provide relevant additional information to guide decisions regarding offering a lifestyle intervention to obese infertile women. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: The cost-effectiveness of lifestyle intervention preceding infertility treatment compared to prompt infertility treatment was evaluated based on data of a previous RCT, the LIFEstyle study. The primary outcome for effectiveness was the vaginal birth of a healthy singleton at term within 24 months after randomization (the healthy live birth rate). The economic evaluation was performed from a hospital perspective and included direct medical costs of the lifestyle intervention, infertility treatments, medication and pregnancy in the intervention and control group. In addition, we performed exploratory cost-effectiveness analyses of scenarios with additional effectiveness outcomes (overall live birth within 24 months and overall live birth conceived within 24 months) and of subgroups, i.e. of ovulatory and anovulatory women, women <36 years and ≥36 years of age and of completers of the lifestyle intervention. Bootstrap analyses were performed to assess the uncertainty surrounding cost-effectiveness. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGS, METHODS: Infertile women with a BMI of ≥29 kg/m2 (no upper limit) were allocated to a 6-month lifestyle intervention programme preceding infertility treatment (intervention group, n = 290) or to prompt infertility treatment (control group, n = 287). After excluding women who withdrew informed consent or who were lost to follow-up we included 280 women in the intervention group and 284 women in the control group in the analysis. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Total mean costs per woman in the intervention group within 24 months after randomization were €4324 (SD €4276) versus €5603 (SD €4632) in the control group (cost difference of -€1278, P < 0.05). Healthy live birth rates were 27 and 35% in the intervention group and the control group, respectively (effect difference of -8.1%, P < 0.05), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €15 845 per additional percentage increase of the healthy live birth rate. Mean costs per healthy live birth event were €15 932 in the intervention group and €15 912 in the control group. Exploratory scenario analyses showed that after changing the effectiveness outcome to all live births conceived within 24 months, irrespective of delivery within or after 24 months, cost-effectiveness of the lifestyle intervention improved. Using this effectiveness outcome, the probability that lifestyle intervention preceding infertility treatment was cost-effective in anovulatory women was 40%, in completers of the lifestyle intervention 39%, and in women ≥36 years 29%. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: In contrast to the study protocol, we were not able to perform the analysis from a societal perspective. Besides the primary outcome of the LIFEstyle study, we performed exploratory analyses using outcomes observed at longer follow-up times and we evaluated subgroups of women; the trial was not powered on these additional outcomes or subgroup analyses. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Cost-effectiveness of a lifestyle intervention is more likely for longer follow-up times, and with live births conceived within 24 months as the effectiveness outcome. This effect was most profound in anovulatory women, in completers of the lifestyle intervention and in women ≥36 years old. This result indicates that the follow-up period of lifestyle interventions in obese infertile women is important. The scenario analyses performed in this study suggest that offering and reimbursing lifestyle intervention programmes in certain patient categories may be cost-effective and it provides directions for future research in this field. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The study was supported by a grant from ZonMw, the Dutch Organization for Health Research and Development (50-50110-96-518). The department of obstetrics and gynaecology of the UMCG received an unrestricted educational grant from Ferring pharmaceuticals BV, The Netherlands. B.W.J.M. is a consultant for ObsEva, Geneva. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The LIFEstyle RCT was registered at the Dutch trial registry (NTR 1530). http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC = 1530.

Complication rates of CT-guided transthoracic lung biopsy: meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To meta-analyze complication rate in computed tomography (CT)-guided transthoracic lung biopsy and associated risk factors. METHODS: Four databases were searched from 1/2000 to 8/2015 for studies reporting complications in CT-guided lung biopsy. Overall and major complication rates were pooled and compared between core biopsy and fine needle aspiration (FNA) using the random-effects model. Risk factors for complications in core biopsy and FNA were identified in meta-regression analysis. RESULTS: For core biopsy, 32 articles (8,133 procedures) were included and for FNA, 17 (4,620 procedures). Pooled overall complication rates for core biopsy and FNA were 38.8 % (95 % CI: 34.3-43.5 %) and 24.0 % (95 % CI: 18.2-30.8 %), respectively. Major complication rates were 5.7 % (95 % CI: 4.4-7.4 %) and 4.4 % (95 % CI: 2.7-7.0 %), respectively. Overall complication rate was higher for core biopsy compared to FNA (p < 0.001). For FNA, larger needle diameter was a risk factor for overall complications, and increased traversed lung parenchyma and smaller lesion size were risk factors for major complications. For core biopsy, no significant risk factors were identified. CONCLUSIONS: In CT-guided lung biopsy, minor complications were common and occurred more often in core biopsy than FNA. Major complication rate was low. For FNA, smaller nodule diameter, larger needle diameter and increased traversed lung parenchyma were risk factors for complications. KEY POINTS: • Minor complications are common in CT-guided lung biopsy • Major complication rate is low in CT-guided lung biopsy • CT-guided lung biopsy complications occur more often in core biopsy than FNA • Major complication rate is similar in core biopsy and FNA • Risk factors for FNA are larger needle diameter, smaller lesion size.

An economic analysis of immediate delivery and expectant monitoring in women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, between 34 and 37 weeks of gestation (HYPITAT-II).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic consequences of immediate delivery compared with expectant monitoring in women with preterm non-severe hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. DESIGN: A cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial (HYPITAT-II). SETTING: Obstetric departments of seven academic hospitals and 44 non-academic hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Women diagnosed with non-severe hypertensive disorders of pregnancy between 340/7 and 370/7  weeks of gestation, randomly allocated to either immediate delivery or expectant monitoring. METHODS: A trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a healthcare perspective until final maternal and neonatal discharge. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Health outcomes were expressed as the prevalence of respiratory distress syndrome, defined as the need for supplemental oxygen for >24 hours combined with radiographic findings typical for respiratory distress syndrome. Costs were estimated from a healthcare perspective until maternal and neonatal discharge. RESULTS: The average costs of immediate delivery (n = 352) were €10 245 versus €9563 for expectant monitoring (n = 351), with an average difference of €682 (95% confidence interval, 95% CI -€618 to €2126). This 7% difference predominantly originated from the neonatal admissions, which were €5672 in the immediate delivery arm and €3929 in the expectant monitoring arm. CONCLUSION: In women with mild hypertensive disorders between 340/7 and 370/7  weeks of gestation, immediate delivery is more costly than expectant monitoring as a result of differences in neonatal admissions. These findings support expectant monitoring, as the clinical outcomes of the trial demonstrated that expectant monitoring reduced respiratory distress syndrome for a slightly increased risk of maternal complications. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Expectant management in preterm hypertensive disorders is less costly compared with immediate delivery.

Uteroplacental Doppler flow and pregnancy outcome in women with tetralogy of Fallot.

OBJECTIVE: Pregnancy in women with surgically corrected tetralogy of Fallot (ToF) is associated with cardiac, obstetric and neonatal complications. We compared uteroplacental Doppler flow (UDF) measurements and pregnancy outcome in women with ToF and in healthy women and aimed to assess whether a relationship exists between cardiac function and UDF in women with ToF. METHODS: We evaluated prospectively pregnant women with ToF and healthy pregnant women from the ZAHARA studies. Clinical evaluation, standardized echocardiography and UDF measurements were performed at 20 and 32 weeks' gestation. RESULTS: We included 62 women with ToF and 69 healthy controls. Cardiac complications, mostly arrhythmia, occurred in 8.1% of women with ToF. There was a higher incidence of small-for-gestational age (21.0% vs 4.4%, P = 0.004) and low birth weight (16.1% vs 2.9%, P = 0.009) in the group of women with ToF than in healthy controls. In women with ToF, early diastolic notching of uterine artery waveform at 20 and 32 weeks occurred more frequently (9.8% vs 1.5%, P = 0.034 and 7.0% vs 0%, P = 0.025, respectively) and the umbilical artery pulsatility index at 32 weeks was higher (1.02 ± 0.20 vs 0.94 ± 0.17, P = 0.015) than in healthy controls. Right ventricular function parameters prepregnancy and at 20 weeks' gestation were significantly associated with abnormal UDF. UDF parameters were associated with adverse neonatal outcome. CONCLUSION: The majority of women with surgically corrected ToF tolerate pregnancy well. However, UDF indices are more frequently abnormal in these women, suggesting impaired placentation. The association of impaired right ventricular function parameters with abnormal UDF suggests that cardiac dysfunction contributes to defective placentation or placental perfusion mismatch and may explain the increased incidence of obstetric and neonatal complications. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pemetrexed plus carboplatin versus pemetrexed in pretreated patients with advanced non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer: treating the right patients based on individualized treatment effect prediction.

BACKGROUND: Translating results from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to individual patients in clinical practice is challenging, as treatment effects can vary substantially among individuals. Data from RCTs can be used for individualized treatment effect prediction, to identify patients who benefit from specific treatments. In this study, we developed and validated a prediction model for estimating absolute treatment effect of pemetrexed plus carboplatin versus single-agent pemetrexed in the second-line treatment of non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using data of relapsed patients with advanced non-squamous NSCLC from the NVALT-7 trial, a Weibull model for prediction of gain in median progression-free survival (PFS) by pemetrexed-carboplatin was derived based on patient and tumor characteristics. The model was externally validated in the GOIRC 02-2006 trial. The applicability of the model for guiding clinical decision-making was evaluated using decision curve analysis. RESULTS: A wide distribution of predicted gain in median PFS by pemetrexed-carboplatin over pemetrexed was found, with a median of 0.7 months (interquartile range: -0.1 to 1.5 months). Patients who benefited most included women, those with stage IV, high body mass index and/or adenocarcinoma. External validation showed satisfactory calibration and moderate discrimination (C-index: 0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.67). Decision curve analysis confirmed that the model adequately identified patients who benefit from pemetrexed-carboplatin, as prediction-based treatment led to improvement in net benefit with regard to PFS and overall survival when assuming a treatment threshold of 0-5 months gain in PFS, compared with other treatment strategies. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of pemetrexed-carboplatin can be predicted for individual patients based on routinely available patient and tumor characteristics. There is important heterogeneity in the effects on PFS of pemetrexed-carboplatin versus pemetrexed in pretreated patients with advanced non-squamous NSCLC. Individualized prediction of treatment effect could be used to guide shared decision-making by discriminating patients who benefit most, to improve clinical outcome. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBERS: NVALT-7: ISRCTN38269072 (ISRCTN registry), GOIRC 02-2006: NCT00786331 (clinicaltrials.gov).