Foot and ankle problems in children and young people: a population-based cohort study.

The aim of this research was to describe the epidemiology, presentation and healthcare use in primary care for foot and ankle problems in children and young people (CYP) across England. We undertook a population-based cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database, a database of anonymised electronic health records from general practices across England. Data was accessed for all CYP aged 0-18 years presenting to their general practitioner between January 2015 and December 2021 with a foot and/or ankle problem. Consultation rates were calculated and used to estimate numbers of consultations in an average practice. Hierarchical Poisson regression estimated relative rates of consultations across sociodemographic groups and logistic regression evaluated factors associated with repeat consultations. A total of 416,137 patients had 687,753 foot and ankle events, of which the majority were categorised as "musculoskeletal" (34%) and "unspecified pain" (21%). Rates peaked at 601 consultations per 10,000 patient-years among males aged 10-14 years in 2018. An average practice might observe 132 (95% CI 110 to 155) consultations annually. Odds for repeat consultations were higher among those with pre-existing diagnoses including juvenile arthritis (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.03).    Conclusions: Consultations for foot and ankle problems were high among CYP, particularly males aged 10 to 14 years. These data can inform service provision to ensure CYP access appropriate health professionals for accurate diagnosis and treatment. What is Known: • Foot and ankle problems can have considerable impact on health-related quality of life in children and young people (CYP). • There is limited data describing the nature and frequency of foot and ankle problems in CYP. What is New: • Foot and ankle consultations were higher in English general practice among CYP aged 10 to 14 years compared to other age groups, and higher among males compared to females. • The high proportion of unspecified diagnoses and repeat consultations suggests there is need for greater integration between general practice and allied health professionals in community-based healthcare settings.

Treat-to-target urate-lowering therapy and hospitalizations for gout: results from a nationwide cohort study in England.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations between treat-to-target urate-lowering therapy (ULT) and hospitalizations for gout. METHODS: Using linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink and NHS Digital Hospital Episode Statistics data, we described the incidence and timing of hospitalizations for flares in people with index gout diagnoses in England from 2004-2020. Using Cox proportional hazards and propensity models, we investigated associations between ULT initiation, serum urate target attainment, colchicine prophylaxis, and the risk of hospitalizations for gout. RESULTS: Of 292 270 people with incident gout, 7719 (2.64%) had one or more hospitalizations for gout, with an incidence rate of 4.64 hospitalizations per 1000 person-years (95% CI 4.54, 4.73). There was an associated increased risk of hospitalizations within the first 6 months after ULT initiation, when compared with people who did not initiate ULT [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 4.54; 95% CI 3.70, 5.58; P < 0.001]. Hospitalizations did not differ significantly between people prescribed vs not prescribed colchicine prophylaxis in fully adjusted models. From 12 months after initiation, ULT associated with a reduced risk of hospitalizations (aHR 0.77; 95% CI 0.71, 0.83; P < 0.001). In ULT initiators, attainment of a serum urate <360 micromol/l within 12 months of initiation associated with a reduced risk of hospitalizations (aHR 0.57; 95% CI 0.49, 0.67; P < 0.001) when compared with people initiating ULT but not attaining this target. CONCLUSION: ULT associates with an increased risk of hospitalizations within the first 6 months of initiation but reduces hospitalizations in the long term, particularly when serum urate targets are achieved.

Cardiometabolic outcomes up to 12 months after COVID-19 infection. A matched cohort study in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Acute Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with new-onset cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM), but it is not known whether COVID-19 has long-term impacts on cardiometabolic outcomes. This study aimed to determine whether the incidence of new DM and CVDs are increased over 12 months after COVID-19 compared with matched controls. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cohort study from 2020 to 2021 analysing electronic records for 1,356 United Kingdom family practices with a population of 13.4 million. Participants were 428,650 COVID-19 patients without DM or CVD who were individually matched with 428,650 control patients on age, sex, and family practice and followed up to January 2022. Outcomes were incidence of DM and CVD. A difference-in-difference analysis estimated the net effect of COVID-19 allowing for baseline differences, age, ethnicity, smoking, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, Charlson score, index month, and matched set. Follow-up time was divided into 4 weeks from index date ("acute COVID-19"), 5 to 12 weeks from index date ("post-acute COVID-19"), and 13 to 52 weeks from index date ("long COVID-19"). Net incidence of DM increased in the first 4 weeks after COVID-19 (adjusted rate ratio, RR 1.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51 to 2.19) and remained elevated from 5 to 12 weeks (RR 1.27, 1.11 to 1.46) but not from 13 to 52 weeks overall (1.07, 0.99 to 1.16). Acute COVID-19 was associated with net increased CVD incidence (5.82, 4.82 to 7.03) including pulmonary embolism (RR 11.51, 7.07 to 18.73), atrial arrythmias (6.44, 4.17 to 9.96), and venous thromboses (5.43, 3.27 to 9.01). CVD incidence declined from 5 to 12 weeks (RR 1.49, 1.28 to 1.73) and showed a net decrease from 13 to 52 weeks (0.80, 0.73 to 0.88). The analyses were based on health records data and participants' exposure and outcome status might have been misclassified. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that CVD was increased early after COVID-19 mainly from pulmonary embolism, atrial arrhythmias, and venous thromboses. DM incidence remained elevated for at least 12 weeks following COVID-19 before declining. People without preexisting CVD or DM who suffer from COVID-19 do not appear to have a long-term increase in incidence of these conditions.

Susceptibility to COVID-19 Diagnosis in People with Down Syndrome Compared to the General Population: Matched-Cohort Study Using Primary Care Electronic Records in the UK.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, people with Down syndrome (DS) have experienced a more severe disease course and higher mortality rates than the general population. It is not yet known whether people with DS are more susceptible to being diagnosed with COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To explore whether DS is associated with increased susceptibility to COVID-19. DESIGN: Matched-cohort study design using anonymised primary care electronic health records from the May 2021 release of Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum. SETTING: Electronic health records from approximately 1400 general practices (GPs) in England. PARTICIPANTS: 8854 people with DS and 34,724 controls matched for age, gender and GP who were registered on or after the 29th January 2020. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was COVID-19 diagnosis between January 2020 and May 2021. Conditional logistic regression models were fitted to estimate associations between DS and COVID-19 diagnosis, adjusting for comorbidities. RESULTS: Compared to controls, people with DS were more likely to be diagnosed with COVID-19 (7.4% vs 5.6%, p ≤ 0.001, odds ratio (OR) = 1.35; 95% CI = 1.23-1.48). There was a significant interaction between people with DS and a chronic respiratory disease diagnosis excluding asthma and increased odds of a COVID-19 diagnosis (OR = 1.71; 95% CI = 1.20-2.43), whilst adjusting for a number of comorbidities. CONCLUSION: Individuals with DS are at increased risk for contracting COVID-19. Those with underlying lung conditions are particularly vulnerable during viral pandemics and should be prioritised for vaccinations.

Antihypertensive medications and COVID-19 diagnosis and mortality: Population-based case-control analysis in the United Kingdom.

AIMS: Antihypertensive drugs have been implicated in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) susceptibility and severity, but estimated associations may be susceptible to bias. We aimed to evaluate antihypertensive medications and COVID-19 diagnosis and mortality, accounting for healthcare-seeking behaviour. METHODS: A population-based case-control study was conducted including 16 866 COVID-19 cases and 70 137 matched controls from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We evaluated all-cause mortality among COVID-19 cases. Exposures were angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), beta-blockers (B), calcium-channel blockers (C), thiazide diuretics (D) and other antihypertensive drugs (O). Analyses were adjusted for covariates and consultation frequency. RESULTS: ACEIs were associated with lower odds of COVID-19 diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.88) as were ARBs (AOR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80-0.95) with little attenuation from adjustment for consultation frequency. C and D were also associated with lower odds of COVID-19 diagnosis. Increased odds of COVID-19 for B (AOR 1.19, 95% CI 1.12-1.26) were attenuated after adjustment for consultation frequency (AOR 1.01, 95% CI 0.95-1.08). Patients treated with ACEIs or ARBs had similar odds of mortality (AOR 1.00, 95% CI 0.83-1.20) to patients treated with classes B, C, D or O or patients receiving no antihypertensive therapy (AOR 0.99, 95% CI 0.83-1.18). CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence that antihypertensive therapy is associated with increased risk of COVID-19 diagnosis or mortality; most classes of antihypertensive therapy showed negative associations with COVID-19 diagnosis.

Probability of sepsis after infection consultations in primary care in the United Kingdom in 2002-2017: Population-based cohort study and decision analytic model.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing have coincided with increasing awareness of sepsis. We aimed to estimate the probability of sepsis following infection consultations in primary care when antibiotics were or were not prescribed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cohort study including all registered patients at 706 general practices in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink, with 66.2 million person-years of follow-up from 2002 to 2017. There were 35,244 first episodes of sepsis (17,886, 51%, female; median age 71 years, interquartile range 57-82 years). Consultations for respiratory tract infection (RTI), skin or urinary tract infection (UTI), and antibiotic prescriptions were exposures. A Bayesian decision tree was used to estimate the probability (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of sepsis following an infection consultation. Age, gender, and frailty were evaluated as association modifiers. The probability of sepsis was lower if an antibiotic was prescribed, but the number of antibiotic prescriptions required to prevent one episode of sepsis (number needed to treat [NNT]) decreased with age. At 0-4 years old, the NNT was 29,773 (95% UI 18,458-71,091) in boys and 27,014 (16,739-65,709) in girls; over 85 years old, NNT was 262 (236-293) in men and 385 (352-421) in women. Frailty was associated with greater risk of sepsis and lower NNT. For severely frail patients aged 55-64 years, the NNT was 247 (156-459) in men and 343 (234-556) in women. At all ages, the probability of sepsis was greatest for UTI, followed by skin infection, followed by RTI. At 65-74 years, the NNT following RTI was 1,257 (1,112-1,434) in men and 2,278 (1,966-2,686) in women; the NNT following skin infection was 503 (398-646) in men and 784 (602-1,051) in women; following UTI, the NNT was 121 (102-145) in men and 284 (241-342) in women. NNT values were generally smaller for the period from 2014 to 2017, when sepsis was diagnosed more frequently. Lack of random allocation to antibiotic therapy might have biased estimates; patients may sometimes experience sepsis or receive antibiotic prescriptions without these being recorded in primary care; recording of sepsis has increased over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: These stratified estimates of risk help to identify groups in which antibiotic prescribing may be more safely reduced. Risks of sepsis and benefits of antibiotics are more substantial among older adults, persons with more advanced frailty, or following UTIs.

Peritonsillar Abscess and Antibiotic Prescribing for Respiratory Infection in Primary Care: A Population-Based Cohort Study and Decision-Analytic Model.

PURPOSE: To quantify the risk of peritonsillar abscess (PTA) following consultation for respiratory tract infection (RTI) in primary care. METHOD: A cohort study was conducted in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink including 718 general practices with 65,681,293 patient years of follow-up and 11,007 patients with a first episode of PTA. From a decision tree, Bayes theorem was employed to estimate both the probability of PTA following an RTI consultation if antibiotics were prescribed or not, and the number of patients needed to be treated with antibiotics to prevent 1 PTA. RESULTS: There were 11,007 patients with PTA with age-standardized incidence of new episodes of PTA of 17.2 per 100,000 patient years for men and 16.1 for women; 6,996 (64%) consulted their practitioner in the 30 days preceding PTA diagnosis, including 4,243 (39%) consulting for RTI. The probability of PTA following an RTI consultation was greatest in men aged 15 to 24 years with 1 PTA in 565 (95% uncertainty interval 527 to 605) RTI consultations without antibiotics prescribed but 1 in 1,139 consultations (1,044 to 1,242) if antibiotics were prescribed. One PTA might be avoided for every 1,121 (975 to 1,310) additional antibiotic prescriptions for men aged 15 to 24 years and 926 (814 to 1,063) for men aged 25 to 34 years. The risk of PTA following RTI consultation was smaller and the number needed to treat higher at other ages and risks were lower in women than men. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of PTA may be lower if antibiotics are prescribed for RTI but even in young men nearly 1,000 antibiotic prescriptions may be required to prevent 1 PTA case. We caution that lack of randomization and data standardization may bias estimates.

Revisiting patient expectations and experiences of antibiotics in an era of antimicrobial resistance: Qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate contemporary patient expectations and experiences of antibiotic prescribing in England. BACKGROUND: Primary care providers' compliance with patient influences has been identified as a motivation for antibiotic-prescribing behaviour. Since 2013, there have been concerted efforts to publicize and address the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance. A fresh qualitative insight into patient expectations and experiences is needed. DESIGN: Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Two English regions, one an urban metropolitan area and the other a town in rural England. Patients who recently consulted for infections were recruited. The information power approach was used to determine the number of participants, yielding a sample of 31 participants. MAIN MEASURES: Thematic analysis was carried out to analyse the interview data. RESULTS: Five themes were identified: beliefs, expectations, experiences of taking antibiotic, experience of antimicrobial resistance and side-effects, and experiences of consultations. The accounts reflected improved public knowledge: antibiotics were perceived to be much-needed medicines that should be prescribed when appropriate. The data showed that patients formed expectations of expectations, trying to read the prescribers' intentions and reflect on the dependency between what prescribers and patients wanted. Patient experiences featured as nuanced and detailed with knowledge of AMR and side-effects of antibiotics in the context of positive consultation experiences. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlighted complex interplays between adherence to antibiotics and consuming antibiotics in reflexive, informed ways. Ensuring that present and future patients are informed about potential benefits and harms of antibiotic use will contribute to future antimicrobial stewardship.

Engagement with advice to reduce cardiovascular risk following a health check programme: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The success of a cardiovascular health check programme depends not only on the identification of individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but also on reducing CVD risk. We examined factors that might influence engagement and adherence to lifestyle change interventions and medication amongst people recently assessed at medium or high risk of CVD (>10% in the next 10 years). METHOD: Qualitative study using individual semi-structured interviews. Data were analysed using the Framework method. RESULTS: Twenty-two participants (12 men, 10 women) were included in the study. Four broad themes are described: (a) the meaning of 'risk', (b) experiences with medication, (c) attempts at lifestyle change, and (d) perceived enablers to longer-term change. The experience of having a health check was mostly positive and reassuring. Although participants may not have understood precisely what their CVD risk meant, many reported efforts to make lifestyle changes and take medications to reduce their risk. Individual's experience with medications was influenced by family, friends and the media. Lifestyle change services and family and friends support facilitated longer-term behaviour change. CONCLUSIONS: People generally appear to respond positively to having a CVD health check and report being motivated towards behaviour change. Some individuals at higher risk may need clearer information about the health check and the implications of being at risk of CVD. Concerns over medication use may need to be addressed in order to improve adherence. Strategies are required to facilitate engagement and promote longer-term maintenance with lifestyle changes amongst high-risk individuals.

A community-based, sport-led programme to increase physical activity in an area of deprivation: a qualitative case study.

BACKGROUND: Engaging in physical activity is essential for maintaining mental and physical health but a high proportion of adults are inactive, especially in areas of socioeconomic deprivation. We evaluated a novel exercise referral scheme funded by Sport England and run by a social enterprise in an area of socioeconomic deprivation in inner London. This study aimed to examine the experiences of participants and staff and to identify barriers and facilitators of implementation and participation in this and potentially similar projects. METHODS: Thirty-five semi-structured interviews with project participants (N = 25) and staff members involved with the project (N = 10) were conducted based at one centre in London in 2017/2018. The interview schedule was informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework. Data was analysed using the Framework method and NVivo software. RESULTS: Three themes emerged from the data: 'Not like your regular gym', Individual journeys and Practical aspects of the scheme. Study participants regarded the environment of the project centre as friendly and sociable. The project differed from a commercial gym by offering free or subsidised membership and the participation of people of all sizes and abilities. Classes were provided free of charge and this, together with mentor support, facilitated participation and continuation in the project. Participants reported changes not only in their physical activity level, but also in their physical and mental health. Additionally, their families' lifestyle changes were reported. Difficulties of accessing the project included lack of awareness of the project and lack of engagement from key referring groups. CONCLUSIONS: Providing free or subsidised classes incorporating individualised assessment, follow-up and support appeared to facilitate engagement in physical activity among socioeconomically deprived populations. The supportive social context of the centre was a major facilitator. Differing levels of abilities and health status among participants call for special attention. Increasing community and referrer awareness of available exercise referral schemes and enhancing communication between sources of referrals and project staff may help to address access issues.

Primary care service use by end-of-life cancer patients: a nationwide population-based cohort study in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: End of life (EoL) care becomes more complex and increasingly takes place in the community, but there is little data on the use of general practice (GP) services to guide care improvement. This study aims to determine the trends and factors associated with GP consultation, prescribing and referral to other care services amongst cancer patients in the last year of life. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of cancer patients who died in 2000-2014, based on routinely collected primary care data (the Clinical Practice Research DataLink, CPRD) covering a representative sample of the population in the United Kingdom. Outcome variables were number of GP consultations (primary), number of prescriptions and referral to other care services (yes vs no) in the last year of life. Explanatory variables included socio-demographics, clinical characteristics and the status of palliative care needs recognised or not. The association between outcome and explanatory variables were evaluated using multiple-adjusted risk ratio (aRR). RESULTS: Of 68,523 terminal cancer patients, 70% were aged 70+, 75% had comorbidities and 45.5% had palliative care needs recognised. In the last year of life, a typical cancer patient had 43 GP consultations (Standard deviation (SD): 31.7; total = 3,031,734), 71.5 prescriptions (SD: 68.0; total = 5,074,178), and 21(SD: 13.0) different drugs; 58.0% of patients had at least one referral covering all main clinical specialities. More comorbid conditions, prostate cancer and having palliative care needs recognised were associated with more primary care consultations, more prescriptions and a higher chance of referral (aRRs 1.07-2.03). Increasing age was related to fewer consultations (aRRs 0.77-0.96), less prescriptions (aRR 1.09-1.44), and a higher chance of referral (aRRs 1.08-1.16) but less likely to have palliative care needs recognised (aRRs 0.53-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: GPs are very involved in end of life care of cancer patients, most of whom having complex care needs, i.e. older age, comorbidity and polypharmacy. This highlights the importance of enhancing primary palliative care skills among GPs and the imperative of greater integration of primary care with other healthcare professionals including oncologists, palliative care specialists, geriatricians and pharmacists. Research into the potential of deprescribing is warranted. Older patients have poorer access to both primary care and palliative care need to be addressed in future practices.

Health checks and cardiovascular risk factor values over six years' follow-up: Matched cohort study using electronic health records in England.

BACKGROUND: The National Health Service (NHS) in England introduced a population-wide programme for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention in 2009, known as NHS Health Checks. This research aimed to measure the cardiovascular risk management and cardiovascular risk factor outcomes of the health check programme during six years' follow-up. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A controlled interrupted time series study was conducted. Participants were registered with general practices in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in England and received health checks between 1 April 2010 and 31 December 2013. Control participants, who did not receive a health check, were matched for age, sex, and general practice. Outcomes were blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), smoking, and total cholesterol (TC) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL). Analyses estimated the net effect of health check by year, allowing for the underlying trend in risk factor values and baseline differences between cases and controls, adjusting for age, sex, deprivation, and clustering by general practice. There were 127,891 health check participants and 322,910 matched controls. Compared with controls, health check participants had lower BMI (cases mean 27.0, SD 4.8; controls 27.3, SD 5.6, Kg/m2), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (cases 129.0, SD 14.3; controls 129.3, SD 15.0, mm Hg), and smoking (21% in health check participants versus 27% in controls), but total and HDL cholesterol were similar. Health check participants were more likely to receive weight management advice (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 5.03, 4.98 to 5.08, P < 0.001), smoking cessation interventions (HR 3.20, 3.13 to 3.27, P < 0.001), or statins (HR 1.24, 1.21 to 1.27, P < 0.001). There were net reductions in risk factor values up to six years after the check for BMI (-0.30, -0.39 to -0.20 Kg/m2, P < 0.001), SBP (-1.43, -1.70 to -1.16 mm Hg, P < 0.001), and smoking (17% in health check participants versus 25% in controls; odds ratio 0.90, 0.87 to 0.94, P < 0.001). The main study limitation was that residual confounding may be present because randomisation was not employed; health check-associated measurement introduced differential recording that might cause bias. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that people who take up a health check generally have lower risk factor values than controls and are more likely to receive risk factor interventions. Risk factor values show net reductions up to six years following a health check in BMI, blood pressure, and smoking, which may be of public health importance.

Reducing the incidence of predictors of cardio-metabolic disease and dysglycaemia with lifestyle modification in at-risk persons - results of further analyses of DIABRISK-SL in those below 18 years of age.

BACKGROUND: We have previously demonstrated in the DIABRISK-SL trial that a trimonthly pragmatic lifestyle modification (P-LSM), as compared to a 12-monthly LSM advice (C-LSM), significantly reduced the primary composite endpoint of predictors of cardio-metabolic disease (new onset type 2 diabetes (T2DM), hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), impaired fasting glycaemia and markers of cardio-renal disease) in urban participants aged below 40 years with risk factors for T2DM. MAIN TEXT: We now report results of post hoc analyses for those aged below 18 (n = 1725) in three age groups, specifically of 6-10 years (P-LSM n = 77, C-LSM n = 59), 10-14 years (P-LSM n = 534, C-LSM n = 556) and 14-18 years (P-LSM n = 239, C-LSM n = 260). There was no effect of P-LSM on the primary endpoint in participants aged below 10 years. Participants aged 10-14 years in the P-LSM intervention as compared to C-LSM had a lower incidence of the primary combined endpoint (87 vs. 106 cases; incident rate ratio (IRR) = 0.85, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.72-1.01; P = 0.07), driven mainly by the lower incidence of new onset hypertension (24 vs. 37 cases; IRR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.49-0.91; P = 0.012). Participants aged 14-18 years in the P-LSM intervention had a lower incidence of the composite endpoint (36 vs. 54 cases; IRR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.57-0.94; P = 0.015) as well as a lower incidence of IGT (12 vs. 21 cases; IRR = 0.6, 95% CI 0.39-0.92; P = 0.02), new onset hypertension (6 vs. 15 cases; IRR = 0.43, 95% CI 0.25-0.76; P = 0.004), and new onset dysglycaemia (composite of new T2DM, IGT and impaired fasting glycaemia) (30 vs. 46 cases; IRR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.56-0.97; P = 0.03) compared to those assigned to the C-LSM intervention. Limitations of the analyses are the post hoc approach and the small number of events in each group. There were no differences in retention between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that, in young South Asians aged between 10 and 18 years at risk of T2DM, a pragmatic lifestyle modification programme may reduce the incidence of predictors of T2DM and hypertension. There is a need for further studies in younger populations to evaluate the impact and feasibility of interventions to reduce the burden of T2DM and associated cardio-metabolic risk. Please see related article: https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-017-0905-6.

Cost-Effectiveness of Antihypertensive Therapy in Patients Older Than 80 Years: Cohort Study and Markov Model.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure and antihypertensive treatment (AHT) generally increase with age, but there is uncertainty concerning the value of treatment at very advanced ages. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of AHT in people aged 80 years and older. METHODS: A Markov model compared AHT with no blood pressure treatment for prevention of cardiovascular disease. Outcomes were new stroke, coronary heart disease, and diabetes, with falls included as a potential complication of AHT. Costs were evaluated from a health system perspective. Incidence, mortality, and costs of healthcare utilization were estimated from linked primary and secondary care electronic health records for 98 220 individuals aged 80 years and older. Clinical effectiveness estimates were from the Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: In the base case, AHT was associated with an additional 725 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and £4.3 million per 1000, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5977 per QALY. The ICER was most sensitive to the cost of falls and relative risk reduction in stroke incidence. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis gave 95% uncertainty intervals: £5057 to £8398 per QALY in men and £4955 to £8218 per QALY in women. AHT for secondary prevention in participants with coronary heart disease gave an ICER of £9903 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: AHT is estimated to be cost-effective in individuals aged 80 years and older, even if health benefits are smaller or side effects costlier than in the base case. Benefits and harms for vulnerable subgroups require further evaluation.

Pneumonia incidence trends in UK primary care from 2002 to 2017: population-based cohort study.

Increasing hospital admissions for pneumonia have been reported recently but it is not known whether pneumonia incidence rates have increased in the community. To determine whether incidence rates of pneumonia increased in primary care in the United Kingdom from 2002 to 2017, an open cohort study was conducted using electronic health records from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Clinically diagnosed pneumonia, influenza pneumonia, pleural infection and clinically suspected pneumonia, defined as chest infection treated with antibiotics, were evaluated. Age-standardised and age-specific rates were estimated. Joinpoint regression models were fitted and annual percentage changes (APC) were estimated. There were 70.7 million person-years of follow-up with 120 662 episodes of clinically diagnosed pneumonia, 1 831 005 of clinically suspected pneumonia, 23 814 episodes of influenza pneumonia and 2644 pleural infections over 16 years. The incidence of clinically diagnosed pneumonia increased from 1.50 per 1000 person-years in 2002 to 2.22 per 1000 in 2017. From 2010 to 2017, the APC in age-standardised incidence was 5.1% (95% confidence interval 3.4-6.9) compared with 0.3% (-0.6 to 1.2%) before 2010. Clinically suspected pneumonia incidence rates increased from 2002 to 2008 with an APC 3.8% (0.8-6.9) but decreased with an APC -4.9% (-6.7 to -3.1) from 2009 to 2017. Influenza pneumonia increased in the epidemic year of 2009. There was no overall trend in pleural infection. The results show that clinically diagnosed pneumonia has increased in primary care but there was a contemporaneous decline in recording of clinically suspected pneumonia or 'chest infection'. Changes in disease labelling practice might partly account for these trends.

Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectory, Frailty, and All-Cause Mortality >80 Years of Age: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials show benefit from lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) in people ≥80 years of age, but nonrandomized epidemiological studies suggest lower SBP may be associated with higher mortality. This study aimed to evaluate associations of SBP with all-cause mortality by frailty category >80 years of age and to evaluate SBP trajectories before death. METHODS: A population-based cohort study was conducted using electronic health records of 144 403 participants ≥80 years of age registered with family practices in the United Kingdom from 2001 to 2014. Participants were followed for ≤5 years. Clinical records of SBP were analyzed. Frailty status was classified using the e-Frailty Index into the categories of fit, mild, moderate, and severe. All-cause mortality was evaluated by frailty status and mean SBP in Cox proportional-hazards models. SBP trajectories were evaluated using person months as observations, with mean SBP and antihypertensive treatment status estimated for each person month. Fractional polynomial models were used to estimate SBP trajectories over 5 years before death. RESULTS: During follow-up, 51 808 deaths occurred. Mortality rates increased with frailty level and were greatest at SBP <110 mm Hg. In fit women, mortality was 7.7 per 100 person years at SBP 120 to 139 mm Hg, 15.2 at SBP 110 to 119 mm Hg, and 22.7 at SBP <110 mm Hg. For women with severe frailty, rates were 16.8, 25.2, and 39.6, respectively. SBP trajectories showed an accelerated decline in the last 2 years of life. The relative odds of SBP <120 mm Hg were higher in the last 3 months of life than 5 years previously in both treated (odds ratio, 6.06; 95% confidence interval, 5.40-6.81) and untreated (odds ratio, 6.31; 95% confidence interval, 5.30-7.52) patients. There was no evidence of intensification of antihypertensive therapy in the final 2 years of life. CONCLUSIONS: A terminal decline of SBP in the final 2 years of life suggests that nonrandomized epidemiological associations of low SBP with higher mortality may be accounted for by reverse causation if participants with lower blood pressure values are closer, on average, to the end of life.

Enhanced Invitations Using the Question-Behavior Effect and Financial Incentives to Promote Health Check Uptake in Primary Care.

Background: Uptake of health checks for cardiovascular risk assessment in primary care in England is lower than anticipated. The question-behavior effect (QBE) may offer a simple, scalable intervention to increase health check uptake. Purpose: The present study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of enhanced invitation methods employing the QBE, with or without a financial incentive to return the questionnaire, at increasing uptake of health checks. Methods: We conducted a three-arm randomized trial including all patients at 18 general practices in two London boroughs, who were invited for health checks from July 2013 to December 2014. Participants were randomized to three trial arms: (i) Standard health check invitation letter only; (ii) QBE questionnaire followed by standard invitation letter; or (iii) QBE questionnaire with offer of a financial incentive to return the questionnaire, followed by standard invitation letter. In intention to treat analysis, the primary outcome of completion of health check within 6 months of invitation, was evaluated using a p value of .0167 for significance. Results: 12,459 participants were randomized. Health check uptake was evaluated for 12,052 (97%) with outcome data collected. Health check uptake within 6 months of invitation was: standard invitation, 590 / 4,095 (14.41%); QBE questionnaire, 630 / 3,988 (15.80%); QBE questionnaire and financial incentive, 629 / 3,969 (15.85%). Difference following QBE questionnaire, 1.43% (95% confidence interval -0.12 to 2.97%, p = .070); following QBE questionnaire and financial incentive, 1.52% (-0.03 to 3.07%, p = .054). Conclusions: Uptake of health checks following a standard invitation was low and not significantly increased through enhanced invitation methods using the QBE.

Cardiovascular risk at health checks performed opportunistically or following an invitation letter. Cohort study.

Background: A population-based programme of health checks has been established in England. Participants receive postal invitations through a population-based call-recall system but health check providers may also offer health checks opportunistically. We compared cardiovascular risk scores for 'invited' and 'opportunistic' health checks. Methods: Cohort study of all health checks completed at 18 general practices from July 2013 to June 2015. For each general practice, cardiovascular (CVD) risk scores were compared by source of check and pooled using meta-analysis. Effect estimates were compared by gender, age-group, ethnicity and fifths of deprivation. Results: There were 6184 health checks recorded (2280 invited and 3904 opportunistic) with CVD risk scores recorded for 5359 (87%) participants. There were 17.0% of invited checks and 22.2% of opportunistic health checks with CVD risk score ≥10%; a relative increment of 28% (95% confidence interval: 14-44%, P < 0.001). In the most deprived quintile, 15.3% of invited checks and 22.4% of opportunistic checks were associated with elevated CVD risk (adjusted odds ratio: 1.94, 1.37-2.74, P  < 0.001). Conclusions: Respondents at health checks performed opportunistically are at higher risk of cardiovascular disease than those participating in response to a standard invitation letter, potentially reducing the effect of uptake inequalities.

Implementing multiple health behaviour change interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction in primary care: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The implementation of multiple health behaviour change interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction in primary care is suboptimal. This study aimed to identify barriers and facilitators to implementing multiple health behaviour change interventions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction in primary care. METHODS: Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework. Interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of healthcare professionals working in the implementation of the NHS Health Check programme in London. Data were analysed using the Framework method. RESULTS: Thirty participants were recruited including ten general practitioners, ten practice nurses, seven healthcare assistants and three practice managers from 23 practices. Qualitative analysis identified three main themes: healthcare professionals' conceptualising health behaviour change; delivering multiple health behaviour change interventions in primary care; and delivering the health check programme. Healthcare professionals generally recognised the importance of health behaviour change for CVD risk reduction but were more sceptical about the potential for successful intervention through primary care. Participants identified the difficulty of sustained behaviour change for patients, the lack of evidence for effective interventions and limited access to appropriate resources in primary care as barriers. Discussing changing multiple health behaviours was perceived to be overwhelming for patients and difficult to implement for healthcare professionals with current primary care resources. The health check programme consists of several components that are difficult to fully complete in limited time. CONCLUSIONS: Advancing the prevention agenda will require strategies to support the delivery of behaviour change interventions in primary care. Greater emphasis needs to be given to promoting behaviour change through supportive environmental context. Further research is needed to evaluate current external lifestyle services to improve the intervention outcomes.