Novel estimation of African swine fever transmission parameters within smallholder villages in Lao P.D.R.

African Swine Fever (ASF) disease transmission parameters are crucial for making response and control decisions when faced with an outbreak, yet they are poorly quantified for smallholder and village contexts within Southeast Asia. Whilst disease-specific factors - such as latent and infectious periods - should remain reasonably consistent, host, environmental and management factors are likely to affect the rate of disease spread. These differences are investigated using Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte-Carlo methods to provide disease parameter estimates in four naïve pig populations in villages of Lao People's Democratic Republic. The villages represent smallholder pig farmers of the Northern province of Oudomxay and the Southern province of Savannakhet, and the model utilised field mortality data to validate the transmission parameter estimates over the course of multiple model generations. The basic reproductive number between-pigs was estimated to range from 3.08 to 7.80, whilst the latent and infectious periods were consistent with those published in the literature for similar genotypes in the region (4.72 to 6.19 days and 2.63 to 5.50 days, respectively). These findings demonstrate that smallholder village pigs interact similarly to commercial pigs, however the spread of disease may occur slightly slower than in commercial study groups. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that despite diversity across the study groups, the disease behaved in a consistent manner. This data can be used in disease control programs or for future modelling of ASF in smallholder contexts.

Treatment of mild to moderate clinical bovine mastitis caused by gram-positive bacteria: A noninferiority randomized trial of local penicillin treatment alone or combined with systemic treatment.

Bovine mastitis is one of the most important diseases in modern dairy farming, as it leads to reduced welfare and milk production and increased need for antibiotic use. Clinical mastitis in Denmark is most often treated with a combination of local and systemic treatment with penicillin. The objective of this randomized clinical trial was to assess whether worse results could be expected with local intramammary treatment with penicillin compared with a combination of local and systemic treatment with penicillin in terms of the bacteriological cure of mild and moderate clinical mastitis cases caused by gram-positive bacteria. We carried out a noninferiority trial with a noninferiority margin set to a relative reduction in bacteriological cure of 15% between these 2 treatment groups to assess the effect of reducing the total antibiotic use by a factor of 16 for each treated case. Clinical mastitis cases from 12 Danish dairy farms were considered for enrollment. On-farm selection of gram-positive cases was carried out by the farm personnel within the first 24 h after a clinical mastitis case was detected. A single farm used bacterial culture results from the on-farm veterinarian, whereas the other 11 farms were provided with an on-farm test to distinguish gram-positive bacteria from gram-negative or samples without bacterial growth. Cases with suspected gram-positive bacteria were allocated to a treatment group: either local or combination. Bacteriological cure was assessed based on the bacterial species identified in the milk sample from the clinical mastitis case and 2 follow-up samples collected approximately 2 and 3 wk after ended treatment. Identification of bacteria was carried out using MALDI-TOF on bacterial culture growth. Noninferiority was assessed using unadjusted cure rates and adjusted cure rates from a multivariable mixed logistic regression model. Of the 1,972 clinical mastitis cases registered, 345 (18%) met all criteria for inclusion (full data). The data set was further reduced to 265 cases for the multivariable analysis to include only complete registrations. Streptococcus uberis was the most commonly isolated pathogen. Noninferiority was demonstrated for both unadjusted and adjusted cure rates. The unadjusted cure rates were 76.8% and 83.1% for the local and combined treatments, respectively (full data). The pathogen and somatic cell count before the clinical case had an effect on the efficacy of treatment; thus efficient treatment protocols should be herd- and case-specific. The effect of pathogen and somatic cell count on treatment efficacy was similar irrespective of the treatment protocol. We conclude that bacteriological cure of local penicillin treatment for mild and moderate clinical mastitis cases was noninferior to the combination of local and systemic treatment using a 15% noninferiority margin. This suggests that a potential 16-fold reduction in antimicrobial use per mastitis treatment can be achieved with no adverse effect on cure rate.

Nationwide study on SARS-CoV-2 transmission within households from lockdown to reopening, Denmark, 27 February 2020 to 1 August 2020.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most serious global public health threats of recent times. Understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission is key for outbreak response and to take action against the spread of disease. Transmission within the household is a concern, especially because infection control is difficult to apply within this setting.AimThe objective of this observational study was to investigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Danish households during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsWe used comprehensive administrative register data from Denmark, comprising the full population and all COVID-19 tests from 27 February 2020 to 1 August 2020, to estimate household transmission risk and attack rate.ResultsWe found that the day after receiving a positive test result within the household, 35% (788/2,226) of potential secondary cases were tested and 13% (98/779) of these were positive. In 6,782 households, we found that 82% (1,827/2,226) of potential secondary cases were tested within 14 days and 17% (371/2,226) tested positive as secondary cases, implying an attack rate of 17%. We found an approximate linear increasing relationship between age and attack rate. We investigated the transmission risk from primary cases by age, and found an increasing risk with age of primary cases for adults (aged ≥ 15 years), while the risk seems to decrease with age for children (aged < 15 years).ConclusionsAlthough there is an increasing attack rate and transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 with age, children are also able to transmit SARS-CoV-2 within the household.

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission between Mink (Neovison vison) and Humans, Denmark.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has caused a pandemic in humans. Farmed mink (Neovison vison) are also susceptible. In Denmark, this virus has spread rapidly among farmed mink, resulting in some respiratory disease. Full-length virus genome sequencing revealed novel virus variants in mink. These variants subsequently appeared within the local human community.

Dynamics of somatic cell count (SCC) and differential SCC during and following intramammary infections.

Somatic cell count is frequently used as an indicator of intramammary infections (IMI) in dairy cattle worldwide. The newly introduced differential SCC (DSCC) can potentially contribute to detection of IMI. The purpose of this study was to investigate the dynamics of SCC and DSCC after IMI. We used a data set with monthly samples from 2 Danish dairy herds through 1 yr, using bacterial culture to identify IMI. The dynamics of SCC and DSCC with regard to IMI were assessed at quarter level following new IMI with each of 3 defined pathogen groups, major, minor, or "other" pathogens, using general additive models. Both SCC and DSCC increased after IMI, with a more pronounced increase if major or other pathogens were detected compared with minor pathogens. We found that DSCC increased after IMI with other pathogens in both herds and, in herd 2, after IMI caused by major and minor pathogens. We also estimated the duration of increased SCC and DSCC when they exceeded a threshold, done separately for each pathogen group. Major pathogens had the longest-lasting effect in both herds for both SCC and DSCC. We conclude that the magnitude and duration of response of SCC and DSCC to IMI differs between herds and causative pathogens.

A dynamic model for spread of livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus on a pig farm, incorporating bacterial load and human exposure through air.

Livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) is widely distributed in the pig population in many countries, where its presence is undesirable, because as an opportunistic human pathogen, it poses a threat to human health. At present, there is a lack of knowledge regarding successful methods for eradication of LA-MRSA on a pig farm, which does not involve emptying the farm and culling all pigs. Some studies have reported an association between levels of LA-MRSA in the barn air and LA-MRSA carriage among humans entering or working in the pig barns. Therefore, interventions that are able to reduce the amount of LA-MRSA carried by the pigs and/or the concentration of LA-MRSA in the barn air, might be highly relevant if aiming for reducing the spread of LA-MRSA into the general human population. In the present study, an existing agent-based simulation model for spread of LA-MRSA within a pig herd was extended to also include LA-MRSA load and spread through air. This makes it possible to use the model for studying the air exposure to LA-MRSA for humans entering the pig barns. The model was used for simulating various types of interventions in contaminated herds. At present quantitative data for nasal carriage of LA-MRSA in pigs are sparse, and many knowledge gaps regarding spread of LA-MRSA remain. Thus, our goal of building this model was not to provide exact values for risk reduction, but to avail a model that can be used for studying the effect of various types of interventions mechanistically, once more relevant data become available. Collection of more data on the influence of load is crucial for getting a better understanding of which possible interventions strategies, that might still have some potential in countries, where LA-MRSA has already spread to the majority of the pig population.

Economic and epidemiological impact of different intervention strategies for clinical contagious mastitis.

The overall aim of this study was to compare different intervention strategies for clinical intramammary infections (IMI). We conducted a simulation study to represent a Danish dairy cattle herd with IMI caused mostly by Staphylococcus aureus and 9 different intervention strategies for clinical IMI. A standard intervention of 3 d of treatment consisting of intramammary injections for all clinical cases was used. Two of the strategies reflected the use of more antibiotics and 6 strategies reflected cow-specific treatment or culling decisions. For these strategies, we assessed the cost and effectiveness of culling as an IMI intervention. Our results showed that nearly all strategies could reduce the number of IMI cases [e.g., a median of 37 clinical cases with the extended intramammary treatment over 5 d strategy (Basic5) and 30 clinical cases with the cow culled with recovery probability below 50% (Before50)] compared with the standard intervention (median of 42 clinical cases). This happened alongside either increased antibiotic usage (e.g., from a median of 123 treatment days up to 179 treatment days with strategy Basic5) or an increased number of cows culled in relation to IMI (e.g., from a median of 16 up to 24 cows with strategy Before50). Strategies with more antibiotics or reactive culling had a slightly higher net income (e.g., €190,014 median net income with strategy Basic5 or €196,995 with strategy Before50 compared with €187,666 with the standard strategy). This shows that a cow-specific clinical intervention approach can be cost-effective in reducing IMI incidence.

A strain-, cow-, and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in dairy cattle herds.

Intramammary infections (IMI) in dairy cattle lead to economic losses for farmers, both through reduced milk production and disease control measures. We present the first strain-, cow- and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in a dairy cattle herd. The model can be used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of different prevention and control strategies against IMI. The objective of this study was to describe a transmission framework, which simulates spread of IMI causing pathogens through different transmission modes. These include the traditional contagious and environmental spread and a new opportunistic transmission mode. In addition, the within-herd transmission dynamics of IMI causing pathogens were studied. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of input parameters on model predictions. The results show that the model is able to represent various within-herd levels of IMI prevalence, depending on the simulated pathogens and their parameter settings. The parameters can be adjusted to include different combinations of IMI causing pathogens at different prevalence levels, representing herd-specific situations. The model is most sensitive to varying the transmission rate parameters and the strain-specific recovery rates from IMI. It can be used for investigating both short term operational and long term strategic decisions for the prevention and control of IMI in dairy cattle herds.

Determinants of antimicrobial treatment for udder health in Danish dairy cattle herds.

Societal pressure to limit the use of antibiotics in livestock production systems, including dairy cattle systems, is consistently increasing. To motivate farmers to reduce antibiotic usage, it is important to understand the factors that determine whether a cow will be treated with antibiotics or not. If farmers' usual practices regarding antibiotic treatments are taken into account, they may be motivated to adopt control measures that can facilitate prudent use of antibiotics and are at the same time cost-effective. In this study, we analyzed database recordings of milk yield and somatic cell count from the routine milk recording scheme, clinical registrations of mastitis and PCR results, and cow factors such as days in milk and parity in relation to antibiotic treatments for 518 dairy herds in Denmark. Farm-wise logistic regressions were used to predict antimicrobial treatment based on these factors. The resulting regression coefficients of 422 herds were further analyzed by principal component analysis and clustering to determine the driving predictors for treatment in different groups of farms. The results showed that determinants that were most important for predicting antibiotic treatments vary from one farm to another. Health indicators such as PCR or somatic cell count were most indicative for treatment on some farms, whereas other groups seemed to depend more on production factors (milk yield) or later culling of the cows. This shows that farmers behave differently and differences can be identified in register data. This information can be considered when developing cost-effective herd-specific control measures of mastitis to promote prudent use of antibiotics in Danish dairy cattle farms.

Epidemiological and economic consequences of purchasing livestock infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Paratuberculosis (PTB) is a chronic disease which may lead to reduced milk yield, lower animal welfare and death in cattle. The causative agent is Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). The economic consequences are particularly important incentives in the control and eradication of the infection. One strategy to control PTB in a herd is to purchase animals from farms with a low risk of MAP infection. We wanted to investigate the epidemiological and economic consequences of buying livestock from different supplier farms of low, medium or high risk, as well as farms with unknown status. We also wanted to estimate the probability of spontaneous fadeout if the farmer of an initially MAP-free herd bought a specified number of infected animals in a single year, or continually bought infected animals. This was achieved through simulation modeling, and the effects of consistently introducing one, five or ten infected animals annually into an initially infection-free herd was also modeled. RESULTS: Our findings show that once infected, a farm can relatively safely purchase animals from other low and medium-risk farms without experiencing an increase in the prevalence, highlighting the importance of certification programmes. Furthermore, farms free of MAP are highly susceptible and cannot purchase more than a small number of animals per year without having a high risk of being infected. The probability of spontaneous fadeout after 10 years was 82% when introducing a single infected animal into an initially MAP-free herd. When purchasing ten infected animals, this probability was 46%. The continual purchase of infected animals resulted in very low probabilities of spontaneous fadeout. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that MAP-free farms can purchase a small number of animals, preferably from certified farms, each year and still remain free of MAP. Already infected farms have little risk of increasing the prevalence on a farm when purchasing animals from other farms.

Mean effective sensitivity for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection in cattle herds.

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infections in cattle are generally challenging to detect and cost-effective test strategies are consequently difficult to identify. MAP-specific antibody ELISAs for milk and serum are relatively inexpensive, but their utility is influenced by a number of factors such as herd size, herd composition and diagnostic sensitivity. The sensitivity of the test increases with the age of the tested animal, and therefore the general, or "mean effective sensitivity" (defined as the mean of the sensitivities for all animals within a population, MES), for detecting MAP within a herd is dependent upon the age distribution of the herd. For this study we used a dataset of cattle from 4,259 dairy herds and 4,078 non-dairy herds. The aim was to investigate the MES for groups of cattle considered to be reasonable entities for MAP surveillance and control, in order to assist the decision-makers in planning and optimizing these programs economically. We compared six different groups of cattle (three dairy and three non-dairy) in Denmark by calculating the MES for each herd in each group. RESULTS: The distribution of MES showed a large variation within and between groups, and in some groups we found a bimodal distribution of MES. Dairy herds generally showed higher MES than non-dairy herds. Dairy herds in a control programme for paratuberculosis showed a MES similar to all other dairy herds from which animals > 2.0 years were tested (both groups had a median MES = 0.60). For the non-dairy groups, the sensitivity became much higher when animals < 2.0 years and herds with less than 25 cattle were excluded, resulting in a median MES of 0.65. CONCLUSION: The results showed that MES could indicate the effectivity of testing different cattle groups for MAP, given that the data used are unbiased.

Spatial analysis and temporal trends of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome in Denmark from 2007 to 2010 based on laboratory submission data.

BACKGROUND: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) has been a cause for great concern to the Danish pig industry since it was first diagnosed in 1992. The causative agent of PRRS is an RNA virus which is divided into different genotypes. The clinical signs, as well as its morbidity and mortality, is highly variable between herds and regions. Two different genotypes of PRRS virus (PRRSV) are found in Denmark: type 1 and type 2. Approximately 40% of Danish swine herds are seropositive for one or both PRRSV types. The objective of this study was to describe the temporal trend and spatial distribution of PRRSV in Danish swine herds from 2007 to 2010, based on type-specific serological tests from the PRRS surveillance and control program in Denmark using the results stored in the information management system at the National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark (DTU Vet). RESULTS: The average monthly seroprevalence of PRRSV type 1 was 9% (minimum of 5%; maximum of 13%) in breeding herds, and 20% (minimum of 14%; maximum of 26%) in production herds; PRRSV type 2 had an average seroprevalence of 3% (minimum of 1%; maximum of 9%) in breeding herds and of 9% (minimum of 5%; maximum of 13%) within production herds. The seroconversion rate followed a similar and consistent pattern, being higher for type 1 than for type 2 for both PRRSV types. Regarding the spatiotemporal results, the relative risk distribution maps changed over time as a consequence of the changes in PRRSV seroprevalence, suggesting a general decline in the extent of areas with higher relative risk for both type 1 and 2. Local spatial analysis results demonstrated the existence of statistically significant clusters in areas where the relative risk was higher for both herds. CONCLUSIONS: PRRSV type 1 seroprevalence was constantly higher than for PRRSV type 2 in both herd types. Significant spatial clusters were consistently found in Denmark, suggesting that PRRSV is endemic in these areas. Furthermore, relative risk distribution maps revealed different patterns over time as a consequence of the changes in seroprevalence.

Corrigendum: A practical introduction to mechanistic modeling of disease transmission in veterinary science.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2020.546651.].

Switching to a fixed-ratio combination of insulin degludec/liraglutide (IDegLira) is associated with improved glycaemic control in a real-world population with type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United Arab Emirates: Results from the multicentre, prospective INTENSIFY study.

AIM: Investigate the effectiveness of IDegLira, a fixed-ratio combination of insulin degludec/liraglutide, in a real-world setting in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United Arab Emirates. METHODS: This non-interventional study enrolled adults switching to IDegLira from basal insulin (BI) or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) with/without concomitant oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs). Primary endpoint was change in HbA1c from baseline, assessed using a mixed model for repeated measurements. RESULTS: Among 263 patients (BI ± OADs, n = 206; GLP-1 RA ± OADs, n = 57), mean baseline HbA1c was 9.29 % (78 mmol/mol). After 26 weeks, HbA1c was significantly reduced (BI ± OADs, -0.83 % [-9.0 mmol/mol] and GLP-1 RA ± OADs, -1.24 % [-13.5 mmol/mol]; both p < 0.0001). Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) was significantly reduced (-39.48 mg/dL [BI ± OADs] and -82.49 mg/dL [GLP-1 RA ± OADs]; both p < 0.0001). Before treatment initiation, 3/263 patients experienced ≥ 1 severe hypoglycaemic episode and 7/263 patients experienced ≥ 1 non-severe hypoglycaemic episode compared with 1/263 patients who had ≥ 1 severe and 1/263 who had ≥ 1 non-severe episode at end of study. Body weight decreased significantly among patients switching from BI ± OADs (-1.05 kg [p < 0.0001]). Treatment was well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: IDegLira significantly reduced HbA1c and FPG in this real-world setting, along with less frequent episodes of hypoglycaemia. Switching to IDegLira offers effective treatment intensification for type 2 diabetes patients with inadequate glycaemic control.

Fast-Acting Insulin Aspart in Patients with Type 1 Diabetes in Real-World Clinical Practice: A Noninterventional, Retrospective Chart and Database Study.

INTRODUCTION: This study utilized continuous glucose monitoring data to analyze the effects of switching to treatment with fast-acting insulin aspart (faster aspart) in adults with type 1 diabetes (T1D) in clinical practice. METHODS: A noninterventional database review was conducted in Sweden among adults with T1D using multiple daily injection (MDI) regimens who had switched to treatment with faster aspart as part of basal-bolus treatment. Glycemic data were retrospectively collected during the 26 weeks before switching (baseline) and up to 32 weeks after switching (follow-up) to assess changes in time in glycemic range (TIR; 70-180 mg/dL), mean sensor glucose, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels, coefficient of variation, time in hyperglycemia (level 1, > 180 to ≤ 250 mg/dL; level 2, > 250 mg/dL), and time in hypoglycemia (level 1, ≥ 54 to < 70 mg/dL; level 2, < 54 mg/dL) (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT03895515). RESULTS: Overall, 178 participants were included in the study cohort. The analysis population included 82 individuals (mean age 48.5 years) with adequate glucose sensor data. From baseline to follow-up, statistically significant improvements were reported for TIR (mean increase 3.3%-points [approximately 48 min/day]; p = 0.006) with clinically relevant improvement (≥ 5%) in 43% of participants. Statistically significant improvements from baseline were observed for mean sensor glucose levels, HbA1c levels, and time in hyperglycemia (levels 1 and 2), with no statistically significant changes in time spent in hypoglycemia. CONCLUSIONS: Switching to faster aspart was associated with improvements in glycemic control without increasing hypoglycemia in adults with T1D using MDI in this real-world setting.

Retrospective investigation of the 2019 African swine fever epidemic within smallholder pig farms in Oudomxay province, Lao PDR.

The 2019 African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR or Laos) represented a major epidemiologic event where a transitioning lower-middle income nation (LMIC) experienced a viral epidemic in a naïve pig population. The diversity of pig management styles creates challenges for local and regional policymakers when formulating recommendations to control an ASF outbreak. The aim of this study were to investigate the management of pigs in villages of Oudomxay province that were affected by ASF in 2019, as a case study in a smallholder pig-rasing system in northern Laos. The frequencies of well known risk factors were measured in the affected villages and the timelines and household level stock losses due to the outbreak were investigated. These findings were compared to data available from a similar outbreak in the southern province of Savannakhet. Disease control implications of these findings are discussed. Mean losses were 3.0-23.3 pigs per household, with a mean lost herd value of USD 349, 95% CI (294-415). These pig losses reflect those estimated in Savannakhet (6.7 pigs per household). However, the financial loss estimated per household was higher, USD 349 versus USD 215, possibly due to higher pig values and a higher input/output management approach in Oudomxay. The investigation revealed the presence of numerous ASF risk factors, such as swill-feeding and free-ranging. In addition, poor biosecurity practices - such as inappropriate garbage disposal and slaughtering - that could contaminate the environment were present. ASF cases occurred across all villages between June and December 2019, with outbreak periods ranging from 22-103 days. These values are consistent with the outbreak in Savannakhet; however, notable differences in management styles were observed. These findings demonstrate the need for more disease control resources from the village to the Governmental level. Villages need support in enacting context appropriate biosecurity measures, whilst the ongoing surveillance and investigation of ASF require investment in logistical and veterinary resources at the Governmental level.

DTU-DADS-Aqua: A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture.

Simulation models are useful tools to predict and elucidate the effects of factors influencing the occurrence and spread of epidemics in animal populations, evaluate the effectiveness of different control strategies and ultimately inform decision-makers about mitigations to reduce risk. There is a paucity of simulation models to study waterborne transmission of viral and bacterial pathogens in marine environments. We developed a stochastic, spatiotemporal hybrid simulation model (DTU-DADS-Aqua) that incorporates a compartmental model for infection spread within net-pens, an agent-based model for infection spread between net-pens within and between sites and uses seaway distance to inform farm-site hydroconnectivity. The model includes processes to simulate infection transmission and control over surveillance, detection and depopulation measures. Different what-if scenarios can be explored according to the input data provided and user-defined parameter values, such as daily surveillance and depopulation capacities or increased animal mortality that triggers diagnostic testing to detect infection. The latter can be easily defined in a software application, in which results are summarized after each simulation. To demonstrate capabilities of the model, we simulated the spread of infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAv) for realistic scenarios in a transboundary population of farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, United States. We assessed the progression of infection in the different simulated outbreak scenarios, allowing for variation in the control strategies adopted for ISAv. Model results showed that improved disease detection, coupled with increasing surveillance visits to farm-sites and increased culling capacity for depopulation of infected net-pens reduced the number of infected net-pens and outbreak duration but the number of ISA-infected farm sites was minimally affected. DTU-DADS-Aqua is a flexible modelling framework, which can be applied to study different infectious diseases in the aquatic environment, allowing the incorporation of alternative transmission and control dynamics. The framework is open-source and available at https://github.com/upei-aqua/DTU-DADS-Aqua.

Simulating the mechanics behind sub-optimal mobility and the associated economic losses in dairy production.

Hoof disorders and sub-optimal mobility (SOM) are economically important health issues in dairy farming. Although the dynamics of hoof disorders have an important effect on cow mobility, they have not been considered in previous simulation models that estimate the economic loss of SOM. Furthermore, these models do not consider the varying severities of SOM. The objective of this study was to develop a novel bio-economic simulation model to simulate the dynamics of 8 hoof disorders: digital dermatitis (DD), interdigital hyperplasia (HYP), interdigital dermatitis/heel-horn erosion (IDHE), interdigital phlegmon (IP), overgrown hoof (OH), sole haemorrhage (SH), sole ulcer (SU) and white-line disease (WLD), their role in SOM, and estimate the economic loss of SOM in a herd of 125 dairy cows. A Reed-Frost model was used for DD and a Greenwood model for the other 7 hoof disorders. Economic analysis was conducted per mobility score according to a 5-point mobility scoring method (1 = perfect mobility; 5 = severely impaired mobility) by comparing a scenario with SOM and one without SOM. Parameters used in the model were based on literature and expert opinion and deemed credible during model validation rounds. Results showed that the mean cumulative incidence for maximum mobility scores 2-5 SOM episodes were respectively 34, 16, 7 and <1 episodes per 100 cows per pasture period and 39, 19, 8, <1 episodes per 100 cows per housing period. The mean total annual economic loss due to SOM resulting from the hoof disorders under study was €15,342: €122 per cow per year. The economic analysis uncovered direct economic losses that could be directly linked to SOM episodes and indirect economic losses that could not be directly linked to SOM episodes but arose due to the presence of SOM. The mean total annual direct economic loss for maximum mobility score 2-5 SOM episodes was €1129, €3098, €4354 and €480, respectively. The mean total annual indirect economic loss varied considerably between the 5th and 95th percentiles: €-6174 and €19,499, and had a mean of €6281. This loss was composed of additional indirect culling due to SOM (∼65%) and changes in the overall herd milk production (∼35%) because of additional younger replacement heifers entering the herd due to increased culling rates. The bio-economic model presented novel results with respect to indirect economic losses arising due to SOM. The results can be used to stimulate farmer awareness and promote better SOM management.

A stochastic modelling approach to determine the effect of diverse Staphylococcus aureus strains on the economic and epidemiological outcomes of mastitis intervention strategies in dairy cattle.

Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) strains with considerable genetic and phenotypic differences have previously been identified. The economic and epidemiologic impact of S. aureus mastitis has been investigated, but none of these studies took differences between strains into account. Here we aimed to investigate how differences between S. aureus strains affect the economic and epidemiologic outcome of various intervention strategies against clinical and subclinical intramammary infections. Five S. aureus strains were modelled using a stochastic bio-economic model simulating a dairy herd of 200 cows using single-day time steps. The strain characteristics of the five simulated S. aureus strains (general, contagious, spill-over, clinical and persistent) were based on divergent phenotypes as described in literature. Outcomes of the model included incidence (both clinical and subclinical), number of antibiotic treatment days, number of culled cows, and net income. Intervention strategies against clinical and subclinical intramammary infections were based on (variations of) intramammary antibiotic treatment, testing, and culling. Both single and multiple pathogen (intramammary infection caused by S. aureus, Escherichia coli, and non-aureus staphylococci) scenarios were simulated to determine the effect of the five S. aureus strains on the impact of 19 different intervention strategies. The results showed that the incidence (both clinical and subclinical), number of treatment days, number of culled cows, and net income varied considerably for the different S. aureus strains. Comparison of the model outcomes within and between strains showed that for most intervention strategies the relative impact differed per strain. However, the intervention strategy with the best outcome for most variables and strains was the culling of cows with a recovery probability lower than 50%. This shows that the relative economic and epidemiologic impact of most of the modelled intervention strategies were strain-dependent, while some intervention strategies were not strain-dependent. From this, we conclude that, depending on the intervention strategy applied on a farm, it could be advantageous to type S. aureus to determine whether it would be economically and epidemiologically beneficial for the existing intervention strategy to be changed.

Estimating transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus from experimental studies.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to spread across the world, and currently, there are no treatments or vaccines available to combat this virus. Reliable estimates of transmission parameters for ASFV are therefore needed to establish effective contingency plans. This study used data from controlled ASFV inoculations of pigs to assess the transmission parameters. Three models were developed with (binary, piecewise-linear and exponential) time-dependent levels of infectiousness based on latency periods of 3-5 days derived from the analysis of 294 ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid-stabilized blood samples originating from 16 pigs with direct and 10 pigs with indirect contact to 8 inoculated pigs. The models were evaluated for three different discrete latency periods of infection. The likelihood ratio test showed that a binary model had an equally good fit for a latency period of 4 or 5 days as the piecewise-linear and exponential model. However, for a latency period of 3 days, the piecewise-linear and exponential models had the best fit. The modelling was done in discrete time as testing was conducted on specific days. The main contribution of this study is the estimation of ASFV genotype II transmission through the air in a confined space. The estimated transmission parameters via air are not much lower than for direct contact between pigs. The estimated parameters should be useful for future simulations of control measures against ASFV.