Temperature dependence of competitive ability is cold-shifted compared to that of growth rate in marine phytoplankton.

The effect of climate warming on community composition is expected to be contingent on competitive outcomes, yet approaches to projecting ecological outcomes often rely on measures of density-independent performance across temperatures. Recent theory suggests that the temperature response of competitive ability differs in shape from that of population growth rate. Here, we test this hypothesis empirically and find thermal performance curves of competitive ability in aquatic microorganisms to be systematically left-shifted and flatter compared to those of exponential growth rate. The minimum resource requirement for growth, R*-an inverse indicator of competitive ability-changes with temperature following a U-shaped pattern in all four species tested, contrasting from their left-skewed density-independent growth rate thermal performance curves. Our results provide new evidence that exploitative competitive success is highest at temperatures that are sub-optimal for growth, suggesting performance estimates of density-independent variables might underpredict performance in cooler competitive environments.

The prokaryotic and eukaryotic microbiome of Pacific oyster spat is shaped by ocean warming but not acidification.

Pacific oysters (Magallana gigas, a.k.a. Crassostrea gigas), the most widely farmed oysters, are under threat from climate change and emerging pathogens. In part, their resilience may be affected by their microbiome, which, in turn, may be influenced by ocean warming and acidification. To understand these impacts, we exposed early-development Pacific oyster spat to different temperatures (18°C and 24°C) and pCO2 levels (800, 1,600, and 2,800 µatm) in a fully crossed design for 3 weeks. Under all conditions, the microbiome changed over time, with a large decrease in the relative abundance of potentially pathogenic ciliates (Uronema marinum) in all treatments with time. The microbiome composition differed significantly with temperature, but not acidification, indicating that Pacific oyster spat microbiomes can be altered by ocean warming but is resilient to ocean acidification in our experiments. Microbial taxa differed in relative abundance with temperature, implying different adaptive strategies and ecological specializations among microorganisms. Additionally, a small proportion (~0.2% of the total taxa) of the relatively abundant microbial taxa were core constituents (>50% occurrence among samples) across different temperatures, pCO2 levels, or time. Some taxa, including A4b bacteria and members of the family Saprospiraceae in the phyla Chloroflexi (syn. Chloroflexota) and Bacteroidetes (syn. Bacteroidota), respectively, as well as protists in the genera Labyrinthula and Aplanochytrium in the class Labyrinthulomycetes, and Pseudoperkinsus tapetis in the class Ichthyosporea were core constituents across temperatures, pCO2 levels, and time, suggesting that they play an important, albeit unknown, role in maintaining the structural and functional stability of the Pacific oyster spat microbiome in response to ocean warming and acidification. These findings highlight the flexibility of the spat microbiome to environmental changes.IMPORTANCEPacific oysters are the most economically important and widely farmed species of oyster, and their production depends on healthy oyster spat. In turn, spat health and productivity are affected by the associated microbiota; yet, studies have not scrutinized the effects of temperature and pCO2 on the prokaryotic and eukaryotic microbiomes of spat. Here, we show that both the prokaryotic and, for the first time, eukaryotic microbiome of Pacific oyster spat are surprisingly resilient to changes in acidification, but sensitive to ocean warming. The findings have potential implications for oyster survival amid climate change and underscore the need to understand temperature and pCO2 effects on the microbiome and the cascading effects on oyster health and productivity.

Extreme heatwave drives topography-dependent patterns of mortality in a bed-forming intertidal barnacle, with implications for associated community structure.

Heatwave frequency and intensity will increase as climate change progresses. Intertidal sessile invertebrates, which often form thermally benign microhabitats for associated species, are vulnerable to thermal stress because they have minimal ability to behaviourally thermoregulate. Understanding what factors influence the mortality of biogenic species and how heatwaves might impact their ability to provide habitat is critical. Here, we characterize the community associated with the thatched barnacle, Semibalanus cariosus (Pallass, 1788), in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Then, we investigate what site-level and plot-level environmental factors explained variations in barnacle mortality resulting from an unprecedented regional heatwave in BC, Canada. Furthermore, we used a manipulative shading experiment deployed prior to the heatwave to examine the effect of thermal stress on barnacle survival and recruitment and the barnacle-associated community. We identified 50 taxa inhabiting S. cariosus beds, with variations in community composition between sites. Site-scale variables and algal canopy cover did not predict S. cariosus mortality, but patch-scale variation in substratum orientation did, with more direct solar irradiance corresponding with higher barnacle mortality. The shading experiment demonstrated that S. cariosus survival, barnacle recruitment, and invertebrate community diversity were higher under shades where substratum temperatures were lower. Associated community composition also differed between shaded and non-shaded plots, suggesting S. cariosus was not able to fully buffer acute thermal stress for its associated community. While habitat provisioning by intertidal foundation species is an important source of biodiversity, these species alone may not be enough to prevent substantial community shifts following extreme heatwaves. As heatwaves become more frequent and severe, they may further reduce diversity via the loss of biogenic habitat, and spatial variation in these impacts may be substantial.

Lethal and sublethal implications of low temperature exposure for three intertidal predators.

Benthic invertebrate predators play a key role in top-down trophic regulation in intertidal ecosystems. While the physiological and ecological consequences of predator exposure to high temperatures during summer low tides are increasingly well-studied, the effects of cold exposure during winter low tides remain poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we measured the supercooling points, survival, and feeding rates of three intertidal predator species in British Columbia, Canada - the sea stars Pisaster ochraceus and Evasterias troschelii and the dogwhelk Nucella lamellosa - in response to exposure to sub-zero air temperatures. Overall, we found that all three predators exhibited evidence of internal freezing at relatively mild sub-zero temperatures, with sea stars exhibiting an average supercooling point of -2.50 °C, and the dogwhelk averaging approximately -3.99 °C. None of the tested species are strongly freeze tolerant, as evidenced by moderate-to-low survival rates after exposure to -8 °C air. All three predators exhibited significantly reduced feeding rates over a two-week period following a single 3-h sublethal (-0.5 °C) exposure event. We also quantified variation in predator body temperature among thermal microhabitats during winter low tides. Predators that were found at the base of large boulders, on the sediment, and within crevices had higher body temperatures during winter low tides, as compared to those situated in other microhabitats. However, we did not find evidence of behavioural thermoregulation via selective microhabitat use during cold weather. Since these intertidal predators are less freeze tolerant than their preferred prey, winter low temperature exposures can have important implications for organism survival and predator-prey dynamics across thermal gradients at both local (habitat-driven) and geographic (climate-driven) scales.

The journey of hull-fouling mobile invaders: basibionts and boldness mediate dislodgement risk during transit.

Vessel hull-fouling is responsible for most bioinvasion events in the marine environment, yet it lacks regulation in most countries. Although experts advocate a preventative approach, research efforts on pre-arrival processes are limited. The performance of mobile epifauna during vessel transport was evaluated via laboratory simulations, using the well-known invasive Japanese skeleton shrimp (Caprella mutica), and its native congener C. laeviuscula as case study. The invader did not possess any advantage in terms of inherent resistance to drag. Instead, its performance was conditioned by the complexity of secondary substrate. Dislodgement risk was significantly reduced when sessile fouling basibionts were added, which provided refugia and boosted the probability of C. mutica remaining attached from 7 to 65% in flow exposure trials. Interestingly, the invader exhibited significantly higher exploratory tendency and motility than its native congener at zero-flow conditions. Implications in terms of en-route survivorship, invasion success and macrofouling management are discussed.

Whole-organism responses to constant temperatures do not predict responses to variable temperatures in the ecosystem engineer Mytilus trossulus.

Understanding and predicting responses of ectothermic animals to temperature are essential for decision-making and management. The thermal performance curve (TPC), which quantifies the thermal sensitivity of traits such as metabolism, growth and feeding rates in laboratory conditions, is often used to predict responses of wild populations. However, central assumptions of this approach are that TPCs are relatively static between populations and that curves measured under stable temperature conditions can predict performance under variable conditions. We test these assumptions using two latitudinally matched populations of the ecosystem engineer Mytilus trossulus that differ in their experienced temperature variability regime. We acclimated each population in a range of constant or fluctuating temperatures for six weeks and measured a series of both short term (feeding rate, byssal thread production) and long-term (growth, survival) metrics to test the hypothesis that performance in fluctuating temperatures can be predicted from constant temperatures. We find that this was not true for any metric, and that there were important interactions with the population of origin. Our results emphasize that responses to fluctuating conditions are still poorly understood and suggest caution must be taken in the use of TPCs generated under constant temperature conditions for the prediction of wild population responses.

Multiple stressors drive convergent evolution of performance properties in marine macrophytes.

Extreme environments have driven the evolution of some of the most inspiring adaptations in nature. In the intertidal zone of wave-swept shores, organisms face physical forces comparable to hurricanes and must further endure thermal and desiccation stress during low tides, compromising their physiological and biomechanical performance. We examine how these multiple stressors have influenced the evolution of tissue properties during desiccation using eight phylogenetically independent pairs of intertidal and subtidal macrophytes. Intertidal species generally lost water more slowly than their subtidal counterparts, presumably as an adaption to regular emersion. Under partial desiccation, breaking force, strength, and extensibility of intertidal species generally exceeded those of subtidal species, although important differences existed among phylogenetic pairs. This was often true even when subtidal relatives resisted greater forces or were more extensible under full hydration. The interacting effects of mechanical forces and desiccation during low tide are likely a major selective agent in determining macrophyte performance and fitness. Overall, we found that lineages that have independently evolved to occupy the wave-swept intertidal have converged on performance metrics that are likely to be adaptive to the interacting stressors associated with their extreme niches.

Drivers of plasticity in freeze tolerance in the intertidal mussel Mytilus trossulus.

Freezing is an extreme stress to living cells, and so freeze-tolerant animals often accumulate protective molecules (termed cryoprotectants) to prevent the cellular damage caused by freezing. The bay mussel, Mytilus trossulus, is an ecologically important intertidal invertebrate that can survive freezing. Although much is known about the biochemical correlates of freeze tolerance in insects and vertebrates, the cryoprotectants that are used by intertidal invertebrates are not well characterized. Previous work has proposed two possible groups of low-molecular weight cryoprotectants in intertidal invertebrates: osmolytes and anaerobic byproducts. In our study, we examined which group of candidate cryoprotectants correlate with plasticity in freeze tolerance in mussels using 1H NMR metabolomics. We found that the freeze tolerance of M. trossulus varies on a seasonal basis, along an intertidal shore-level gradient, and with changing salinity. Acclimation to increased salinity (30 ppt compared with 15 ppt) increased freeze tolerance, and mussels were significantly more freeze tolerant during the winter. Mussel freeze tolerance also increased with increasing shore level. There was limited evidence that anaerobic byproduct accumulation was associated with increased freeze tolerance. However, osmolyte accumulation was correlated with increased freeze tolerance after high salinity acclimation and in the winter. The concentration of most low molecular weight metabolites did not vary with shore level, indicating that another mechanism is likely responsible for this pattern of variation in freeze tolerance. By identifying osmolytes as a group of molecules that assist in freezing tolerance, we have expanded the known biochemical repertoire of the mechanisms of freeze tolerance.

Reciprocal abundance shifts of the intertidal sea stars, Evasterias troschelii and Pisaster ochraceus, following sea star wasting disease.

Disease emergence occurs within the context of ecological communities, and disease driven declines in host populations can lead to complex direct and indirect ecological effects. Varying effects of a single disease among multiple susceptible hosts could benefit relatively resistant species. Beginning in 2013, an outbreak of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) led to population declines of many sea star species along the west coast of North America. Through field surveys and laboratory experiments, we investigated how and why the relative abundances of two co-occurring sea star species, Evasterias troschelii and Pisaster ochraceus, shifted during the ongoing wasting epidemic in Burrard Inlet, British Columbia, Canada. We hypothesized that Evasterias is competitively inferior to Pisaster but more resistant to SSWD. Thus, we predicted that SSWD-induced declines of Pisaster could mitigate the negative effects of SSWD on Evasterias, as the latter would experience competitive release. We document shifts in sea star abundance from 2008-2017: Pisaster abundance and mean size declined during the outbreak, while Evasterias abundance increased from relatively rare to numerically dominant within the intertidal. When exposed to symptomatic sea stars, Pisaster and Evasterias both showed signs of SSWD, but transmission and susceptibility was lower in Evasterias. Despite diet overlap documented in our field surveys, Evasterias was not outcompeted by Pisaster in laboratory trails conducted with the relatively small Pisaster available after the outbreak. Interference competition with larger Pisaster, or prey exploitation by Pisaster during the summer when Evasterias is primarily subtidal, may explain the rarity of Evasterias prior to Pisaster declines. Our results suggest that indirect effects mediated by competition can mask some of the direct effects of disease outbreaks, and the combination of direct and indirect effects will determine the restructuring of a community after disturbance.

Recruitment tolerance to increased temperature present across multiple kelp clades.

Kelp systems dominate nearshore marine environments in upwelling zones characterized by cold temperatures and high nutrients. Worldwide, kelp population persistence and recruitment success generally decreases with rising water temperatures coupled with low nutrients, making kelp populations vulnerable to impending warming of the oceans. This response to climate change at a global scale, however, may vary due to regional differences in temperature variability, acclimation, and differential responses of kelp species to changing conditions. Culture experiments were conducted on 12 eastern Pacific kelp taxa across geographic regions (British Columbia, central California, and southern California) under three nitrate levels (1, 5, and 10 µmol/L) and two temperatures (12°C and 18°C) to determine sporophyte production (i.e., recruitment success). For all taxa from all locations, sporophytes were always present in the 12°C treatment and when recruitment failure was observed, it always occurred at 18°C, regardless of nitrate level, indicating that temperature is the driving factor limiting recruitment, not nitrate. Rising ocean temperatures will undoubtedly cause recruitment failure for many kelp species; however, the ability of species to acclimatize or adapt to increased temperatures at the warmer edge of their species range may promote a resiliency of kelp systems to climate change at a global scale.

The duality of ocean acidification as a resource and a stressor.

Ecologically dominant species often define ecosystem states, but as human disturbances intensify, their subordinate counterparts increasingly displace them. We consider the duality of disturbance by examining how environmental drivers can simultaneously act as a stressor to dominant species and as a resource to subordinates. Using a model ecosystem, we demonstrate that CO2 -driven interactions between species can account for such reversals in dominance; i.e., the displacement of dominants (kelp forests) by subordinates (turf algae). We established that CO2 enrichment had a direct positive effect on productivity of turfs, but a negligible effect on kelp. CO2 enrichment further suppressed the abundance and feeding rate of the primary grazer of turfs (sea urchins), but had an opposite effect on the minor grazer (gastropods). Thus, boosted production of subordinate producers, exacerbated by a net reduction in its consumption by primary grazers, accounts for community change (i.e., turf displacing kelp). Ecosystem collapse, therefore, is more likely when resource enrichment alters competitive dominance of producers, and consumers fail to compensate. By recognizing such duality in the responses of interacting species to disturbance, which may stabilize or exacerbate change, we can begin to understand how intensifying human disturbances determine whether or not ecosystems undergo phase shifts.

Natural acidification changes the timing and rate of succession, alters community structure, and increases homogeneity in marine biofouling communities.

Ocean acidification may have far-reaching consequences for marine community and ecosystem dynamics, but its full impacts remain poorly understood due to the difficulty of manipulating pCO2 at the ecosystem level to mimic realistic fluctuations that occur on a number of different timescales. It is especially unclear how quickly communities at various stages of development respond to intermediate-scale pCO2 change and, if high pCO2 is relieved mid-succession, whether past acidification effects persist, are reversed by alleviation of pCO2 stress, or are worsened by departures from prior high pCO2 conditions to which organisms had acclimatized. Here, we used reciprocal transplant experiments along a shallow water volcanic pCO2 gradient to assess the importance of the timing and duration of high pCO2 exposure (i.e., discrete events at different stages of successional development vs. continuous exposure) on patterns of colonization and succession in a benthic fouling community. We show that succession at the acidified site was initially delayed (less community change by 8 weeks) but then caught up over the next 4 weeks. These changes in succession led to homogenization of communities maintained in or transplanted to acidified conditions, and altered community structure in ways that reflected both short- and longer-term acidification history. These community shifts are likely a result of interspecific variability in response to increased pCO2 and changes in species interactions. High pCO2 altered biofilm development, allowing serpulids to do best at the acidified site by the end of the experiment, although early (pretransplant) negative effects of pCO2 on recruitment of these worms were still detectable. The ascidians Diplosoma sp. and Botryllus sp. settled later and were more tolerant to acidification. Overall, transient and persistent acidification-driven changes in the biofouling community, via both past and more recent exposure, could have important implications for ecosystem function and food web dynamics.

Embracing interactions in ocean acidification research: confronting multiple stressor scenarios and context dependence.

Changes in the Earth's environment are now sufficiently complex that our ability to forecast the emergent ecological consequences of ocean acidification (OA) is limited. Such projections are challenging because the effects of OA may be enhanced, reduced or even reversed by other environmental stressors or interactions among species. Despite an increasing emphasis on multifactor and multispecies studies in global change biology, our ability to forecast outcomes at higher levels of organization remains low. Much of our failure lies in a poor mechanistic understanding of nonlinear responses, a lack of specificity regarding the levels of organization at which interactions can arise, and an incomplete appreciation for linkages across these levels. To move forward, we need to fully embrace interactions. Mechanistic studies on physiological processes and individual performance in response to OA must be complemented by work on population and community dynamics. We must also increase our understanding of how linkages and feedback among multiple environmental stressors and levels of organization can generate nonlinear responses to OA. This will not be a simple undertaking, but advances are of the utmost importance as we attempt to mitigate the effects of ongoing global change.

Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (Tb ) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key - but often biologically unreasonable - assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced Tb. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage-specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with Tb , to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.

Field-based experimental acidification alters fouling community structure and reduces diversity.

Increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are affecting ocean chemistry, leading to increased acidification (i.e. decreased pH) and reductions in calcium carbonate saturation state. Many species are likely to respond to acidification, but the direction and magnitude of these responses will be based on interspecific and ontogenetic variation in physiology and the relative importance of calcification. Differential responses to ocean acidification (OA) among species will likely result in important changes in community structure and diversity. To characterize the potential impacts of OA on community composition and structure, we examined the response of a marine fouling community to experimental CO2 enrichment in field-deployed flow-through mesocosm systems. Acidification significantly altered the community structure by altering the relative abundance of species and reduced community variability, resulting in more homogenous biofouling communities from one experimental tile to the next both among and within the acidified mesocosms. Mussel (Mytilus trossulus) recruitment was reduced by over 30% in the elevated CO2 treatment compared to the ambient treatment by the end of the experiment. Strong differences in mussel cover (up to 40% lower in acidified conditions) developed over the second half of the 10-week experiment. Acidification did not appear to affect the mussel growth, as average mussel sizes were similar between treatments at the end of the experiment. Hydroid (Obelia dichotoma) cover was significantly reduced in the elevated CO2 treatment after 8 weeks. Conversely, the percentage cover of bryozoan colonies (Mebranipora membranacea) was higher under acidified conditions with differences becoming apparent after 6 weeks. Neither recruitment nor final size of barnacles (Balanus crenatus) was affected by acidification. By the end of the experiment, diversity was 41% lower in the acidified treatment relative to ambient conditions. Overall, our findings support the general expectation that OA will simplify marine communities by acting on important ecological processes that ultimately determine the community structure and diversity.

The body size dependence of trophic cascades.

Trophic cascades are indirect positive effects of predators on resources via control of intermediate consumers. Larger-bodied predators appear to induce stronger trophic cascades (a greater rebound of resource density toward carrying capacity), but how this happens is unknown because we lack a clear depiction of how the strength of trophic cascades is determined. Using consumer resource models, we first show that the strength of a trophic cascade has an upper limit set by the interaction strength between the basal trophic group and its consumer and that this limit is approached as the interaction strength between the consumer and its predator increases. We then express the strength of a trophic cascade explicitly in terms of predator body size and use two independent parameter sets to calculate how the strength of a trophic cascade depends on predator size. Both parameter sets predict a positive effect of predator size on the strength of a trophic cascade, driven mostly by the body size dependence of the interaction strength between the first two trophic levels. Our results support previous empirical findings and suggest that the loss of larger predators will have greater consequences on trophic control and biomass structure in food webs than the loss of smaller predators.

Ocean acidification through the lens of ecological theory.

Ocean acidification, chemical changes to the carbonate system of seawater, is emerging as a key environmental challenge accompanying global warming and other human-induced perturbations. Considerable research seeks to define the scope and character of potential outcomes from this phenomenon, but a crucial impediment persists. Ecological theory, despite its power and utility, has been only peripherally applied to the problem. Here we sketch in broad strokes several areas where fundamental principles of ecology have the capacity to generate insight into ocean acidification's consequences. We focus on conceptual models that, when considered in the context of acidification, yield explicit predictions regarding a spectrum of population- and community-level effects, from narrowing of species ranges and shifts in patterns of demographic connectivity, to modified consumer-resource relationships, to ascendance of weedy taxa and loss of species diversity. Although our coverage represents only a small fraction of the breadth of possible insights achievable from the application of theory, our hope is that this initial foray will spur expanded efforts to blend experiments with theoretical approaches. The result promises to be a deeper and more nuanced understanding of ocean acidification'and the ecological changes it portends.

Divergent growth strategies between red algae and kelps influence biomechanical properties.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Morphology and material properties are the main components of the mechanical design of organisms, with species groups developing different optimization strategies in the context of their physical environment. For intertidal and subtidal seaweeds, possessing highly flexible and extensible tissues allows individuals to bend and reconfigure in flow, thereby reducing drag. Previous research has shown that aging may compromise these qualities. Tissue age increases with distance from the blade's meristem, which differs in its position on kelps and red algae. Here, we assess whether longitudinal patterns of blade material properties differ between these two algal groups according to tissue age. METHODS: We performed tensile tests on tissues samples excised from various positions along the extent of blades in nine kelp species (basal growth) and 15 species of red algae (apical growth). KEY RESULTS: We found that older tissues were less flexible and extensible than younger tissues in all species tested. As predicted, tissue near the basal meristem in kelp was more flexible and extensible than older tissue at the blade's distal end. The opposite pattern was observed for red algae, with the most flexible and extensible tissues found near the apical meristem at the distal ends of blades. CONCLUSIONS: We propose that divergent patterns in the distribution of material properties along blades may have different consequences for the performance of kelps and red algae. The positioning of younger tissues at the blade base for kelps may enable these species to attain larger body sizes in wave-swept habitats.

A bioenergetic framework for the temperature dependence of trophic interactions.

Changing temperature can substantially shift ecological communities by altering the strength and stability of trophic interactions. Because many ecological rates are constrained by temperature, new approaches are required to understand how simultaneous changes in multiple rates alter the relative performance of species and their trophic interactions. We develop an energetic approach to identify the relationship between biomass fluxes and standing biomass across trophic levels. Our approach links ecological rates and trophic dynamics to measure temperature-dependent changes to the strength of trophic interactions and determine how these changes alter food web stability. It accomplishes this by using biomass as a common energetic currency and isolating three temperature-dependent processes that are common to all consumer-resource interactions: biomass accumulation of the resource, resource consumption and consumer mortality. Using this framework, we clarify when and how temperature alters consumer to resource biomass ratios, equilibrium resilience, consumer variability, extinction risk and transient vs. equilibrium dynamics. Finally, we characterise key asymmetries in species responses to temperature that produce these distinct dynamic behaviours and identify when they are likely to emerge. Overall, our framework provides a mechanistic and more unified understanding of the temperature dependence of trophic dynamics in terms of ecological rates, biomass ratios and stability.

Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming.

Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050-2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance.