Global and regional burden of ischemic stroke associated with atrial fibrillation, 2009-2019.

The extent of the preventable burden of ischaemic stroke associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains uncertain to date. To address this knowledge gap, we utilised the comparative risk assessment methodology to estimate the burden of ischaemic stroke associated with AF at both global and regional levels. The population attributable fraction for ischaemic stroke and AF was obtained from published literature, while data on the prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) associated with ischaemic stroke were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease study database. Our analysis revealed that in 2019, globally, there were an estimated 0.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] of 0.55 to 0.83) million incident cases, 6.9 (5.81 to 8.12) million prevalence cases, 0.3 0.25 to 0.34) million deaths and 5.7 (4.91 to 6.57) million DALY resulting from ischaemic stroke associated with AF. The age-standardised death and DALY rates declined between 2009 and 2019 in all regions to varying degrees. Conversely, the age-standardised incidence and prevalence rates reduced only in high-income countries, Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and Caribbean regions. It is likely that our findings under-estimated the true burden of ischaemic stroke associated with AF due to limitations such as the use of a fixed population attributable fraction and poor quality of data. Nevertheless, we believe that our estimates provide valuable insights and highlight the urgent need for optimised management of AF through the implementation of efficacious interventions. Such efforts can help reduce the occurrence of preventable ischaemic strokes.

Cost-effectiveness of left atrial appendage closure for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: a systematic review appraising the methodological quality.

BACKGROUND: The increasing global prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) has led to a growing demand for stroke prevention strategies, resulting in higher healthcare costs. High-quality economic evaluations of stroke prevention strategies can play a crucial role in maximising efficient allocation of resources. In this systematic review, we assessed the methodological quality of such economic evaluations. METHODS: We searched electronic databases of PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Econ Lit to identify model-based economic evaluations comparing the left atrial appendage closure procedure (LAAC) and oral anticoagulants published in English since 2000. Data on study characteristics, model-based details, and analyses were collected. The methodological quality was evaluated using the modified Economic Evaluations Bias (ECOBIAS) checklist. For each of the 22 biases listed in this checklist, studies were categorised into one of four groups: low risk, partial risk, high risk due to inadequate reporting, or high risk. To gauge the overall quality of each study, we computed a composite score by assigning + 2, 0, - 1 and - 2 to each risk category, respectively. RESULTS: In our analysis of 12 studies, majority adopted a healthcare provider or payer perspective and employed Markov Models with the number of health states varying from 6 to 16. Cost-effectiveness results varied across studies. LAAC displayed a probability exceeding 50% of being the cost-effective option in six out of nine evaluations compared to warfarin, six out of eight evaluations when compared to dabigatran, in three out of five evaluations against apixaban, and in two out of three studies compared to rivaroxaban. The methodological quality scores for individual studies ranged from 10 to - 12 out of a possible 24. Most high-risk ratings were due to inadequate reporting, which was prevalent across various biases, including those related to data identification, baseline data, treatment effects, and data incorporation. Cost measurement omission bias and inefficient comparator bias were also common. CONCLUSIONS: While most studies concluded LAAC to be the cost-effective strategy for stroke prevention in AF, shortcomings in methodological quality raise concerns about reliability and validity of results. Future evaluations, free of these shortcomings, can yield stronger policy evidence.

Global, regional, and national burden of heart failure associated with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, and Atrial fibrillation (AF) is among many modifiable risk factors for heart failure. No estimates are available on the magnitude of the burden of heart failure associated with AF, and this study estimated the global, regional, and national burdens associated with AF. METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment method to estimate the disease burden in terms of prevalence and years lived with disability (YLD). The population-attributable fraction for heart failure and AF was calculated from prevalence estimates of AF and the recalculated relative risks of heart failure associated with AF from a systematic review summarising the longitudinal association between AF and outcomes. The burden of heart failure was retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease database. RESULTS: Globally, 2.6% (95% uncertainty interval 1.3 to 4.7%) of the burden of heart failure is associated with AF. This was 1.5 (95% UI 0.6 to 3.2) million people in 2019, a 49.8% increase from 1990. The highest prevalence was from South-East Asia, East Asia and Oceania. The highest YLD was estimated for Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. High-income countries showed a sharp decline in the age standardised prevalence and YLD rates from 1990 to 2019. CONCLUSION: The burden of heart failure associated with AF has increased substantially over the past two decades despite the advances in AF management. However, falling prevalence and YLD rates of heart failure associated with AF in high-income countries over time indicate that reducing this burden is possible.

"Appropriateness of colonoscopy according to EPAGE II in a low resource setting: a cross sectional study from Sri Lanka".

BACKGROUND: Due to finite resources, the clinical decision to subject a patient to colonoscopy needs to be based on the evidence, regardless of its availability, affordability and safety. This study assessed the appropriateness of colonoscopies conducted in selected study settings in Sri Lanka. In the absence of local guidelines, audit was based on European Panel on Appropriateness of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy II (EPAGE II) criteria. METHODS: This cross-sectional study assessed consecutive patients who underwent colonoscopy between June to August 2015 at four main hospitals in Sri Lanka. Interviewer administered questionnaire and secondary data were collected by trained health staff. Indications were assessed according to EPAGE II criteria. RESULTS: Out of 325 patients, male female proportions were 57.2 and 42.8%. Mean (SD) age was 54.9 (12.1) years. Colonoscopies were appropriate in 61.2% (95% CI 55.8-66.3), uncertain in 28.6% (95% CI 23.9-33.7) and inappropriate in 10.2% (95% CI 7.3-13.9). Colonoscopy to evaluate abdominal pain has highest percentage of inappropriateness of 10.0%. However, 9.5% of these colonoscopies revealed Colo-Rectal Cancer (CRC), reflecting differences in the profile of local CRC patients. Colonoscopies with appropriate or uncertain indications are three times more likely to have a relevant finding than inappropriate indications (42.5% vs. 18.2%; OR 3.32, 95% CI 1.33-8.3; P = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Majority of colonoscopies are appropriate. However, it cannot be neglected that every one in ten patients undergo inappropriate colonoscopy. Proportion of inappropriateness was highest for the indication of chronic abdominal pain, of which, 9.5% of patients were diagnosed with CRC. This may reflect the different profile of local CRC patients in terms of symptom manifestation and other characteristics. In conclusion, the authors recommend formulation of national guidelines for colonoscopy indications based on current best evidence and local patient profile. Use of such prepared local guidelines will improve the efficient use of finite resources.

Long-term Patient and Health Service Outcomes of Ablation and Antiarrhythmic Drugs in Atrial Fibrillation: A Comparative Systematic Review.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent problem worldwide and a common cause of hospitalization, poor quality of life, and increased mortality. Although several treatments are used, the use of ablation and antiarrhythmic drug therapy has increased in the past decade. However, debate continues on the most suitable option for heart rhythm control in patients. Previous studies have largely focused on short-term outcome effects of these treatments. This systematic review aims to determine the effect of ablation compared to antiarrhythmic drugs for AF on long-term patient and health service outcomes of mortality, hospitalization, and quality of life. Three databases were systematically searched-studies were included if they reported long-term outcomes of more than 12 months comparing the 2 treatments. Title and abstract screening and subsequent full-text screening was done by 2 reviewers. Data were extracted from the final studies identified. The details of the search were recorded according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses report. A total of 2224 records were identified. After removing duplicates and screening the titles and abstracts, 68 records required full-text screening. Finally, 12 papers were included in the analysis. Eight studies reported mortality indicating ablation was superior, 2 studies reported hospitalization with opposing outcomes, and 5 quality of life studies indicating ablation was a better treatment. In studies assessing long-term outcomes, beyond 12 months, following ablation or rhythm control drugs for AF, most found a lower risk of death and greater improvement in quality of life in the ablation group.

Does the choice of care pathways matter in timely breast cancer care in Sri Lanka?

BACKGROUND: An understanding on the use of care pathways facilitates identification of timeliness in breast cancer care. Aims of this study were to describe different breast cancer care pathways used by female breast cancer patients in Sri Lanka and to identify whether they experienced timely breast cancer care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among 800 female breast cancer patients with a histological/ cytological confirmation, from four state cancer treatment centers. We conceptualized five different care pathways with essential care points and in-between time intervals to be explored using an interviewer administered tool. Dates were cross-checked with the medical record. The difference of time intervals spent in different care pathways was tested for significance using one-way ANOVA test. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 55.5 (10.7) years. A vast majority of 98.4 % (n = 787) self-detected the breast lesion, while only 13 had been detected through screening. Following self-detection, two thirds (n = 473, 59.1 %, 95 % CI = 55.7-62.5) had first consulted a primary healthcare physician, and a third n = 287, 35.8 %, 95 % CI = 32.6-39.3) had consulted an appropriate specialist first. Presentation interval among those who visited an Ayurvedic physician first was significantly longer than other pathways (p < 0.0001). Diagnosis interval for those who consulted an appropriate consultant was significantly shorter than other pathways (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Women take up numerous care paths following self-detection of a breast lesion. Empowering women on appropriate care pathways and expanding dedicated breast clinics where women to be first seen by an appropriate specialist are likely to improve timely breast cancer care in Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka's early success in the containment of COVID-19 through its rapid response: Clinical & epidemiological evidence from the initial case series.

BACKGROUND: Despite the rising global burden, Sri Lanka reported a relatively low caseload and mortality (13 deaths as of 20 October 2020) for COVID-19. This warrants exploration of the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of the case series during the initial passive case detection phase in Sri Lanka, in order to understand the success in containment of the disease for more than nine months in the country through its initial early and rapid pandemic response. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted using secondary data (hospital records and investigation reports) extracted from all laboratory-confirmed patients admitted to the three main state-sector hospitals in Sri Lanka from 11 March to 7 April 2020. Clinical outcomes were categorized as mild, severe and critical, as per the international classification. Kruskal-Wallis H, Mann Whitney U and Fisher's exact tests compared differences between the variables. RESULTS: The case series comprised 146 live discharges and six deaths. Majority were males (63.2%); mean age of 40.9 (SD = 17.9); and symptomatic (72.4%). Sixty-one (40.1%) had co-morbidities, the commonest being diabetes (20.4%) and hypertension (17.8%). Mild (93.4%), severe (2.6%) and critical (4.0%) disease outcomes were noted. Disease severity was significantly higher with older age (p = 0.037), co-morbidities (p = 0.026); and higher white-cell (p = 0.045) and lymphocyte (p = 0.043) counts; but not with being symptomatic (p = 0.683). The commonest symptoms were fever (62.5%), dry cough (48.0%) and sore throat (26.9%). The median duration (IQR) was 3.0 (1.0-5.0) and 18.0 (15.0-29.5) days, respectively before and during hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to high-risk countries, the younger age, milder disease and low mortality observed in local patients during the initial phase of the pandemic, reflect the early success in containment of the pandemic in Sri Lanka. However, once the disease becomes severe, the factors determining disease fatality remain the same as in other countries. This highlights the value of establishing strong public health systems and disease surveillance in a country, which could provide long-term effects on disease control.

Active screening of patients with diabetes mellitus for pulmonary tuberculosis in a tertiary care hospital in Sri Lanka.

End TB strategy by the WHO suggest active screening of high-risk populations for tuberculosis (TB) to improve case detection. Present study generates evidence for the effectiveness of screening patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) for Pulmonary TB (PTB). A study was conducted among 4548 systematically recruited patients over 45 years attending DM clinic at the National Hospital of Sri Lanka. The study units followed an algorithm specifying TB symptom and risk factor screening for all, followed by investigations and clinical assessments for those indicated. Bacteriologically confirmed or clinically diagnosed PTB were presented as proportions with 95% CI. Mean (SD) age was 62·5 (29·1) years. Among patients who completed all indicated steps of algorithm, 3500 (76·9%) were investigated and 127 (2·8%) underwent clinical assessment. Proportion of bacteriologically confirmed PTB patients was 0·1% (n = 6,95%CI = 0·0-0·3%). None were detected clinically. Analysis revealed PTB detection rates among males aged ≥60 years with HbA1c ≥ 8 to be 0·4% (n = 2, 95%CI = 0·0-1·4%). The study concludes that active screening for PTB among all DM patients at clinic settings in Sri Lanka, to be non-effective measure to enhance TB case finding. However, the sub-category of diabetic males with uncontrolled diabetics who are over 60 years of age is recommended as an option to consider for active screening for PTB.

Prediction of colorectal cancer risk among adults in a lower middle-income country.

BACKGROUND: Globally, colorectal cancer (CRC) is ranked as the third most common cancer in men and the second in women. Use of a simple, validated risk prediction tool will offer a low-cost mechanism to identify the high-risk individuals for CRC. This will increase efficient use of limited resources and early identification of patients. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for developing CRC for Sri Lankan adults. METHODS: The risk predictors were based on the risk factors identified through a logistic regression model along with expert opinion. A case control design utilizing 65 CRC new cases and 65 hospital controls aged 30 years or more was used to assess the criterion validity and reliability of the model. The information was obtained using an interviewer administered questionnaire based on the risk prediction model. RESULTS: The developed model consisted of eight predictors with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.849 (95% CI: 0.8 to 0.9, P<0.001). It has a sensitivity of 76.9%, specificity of 83.1%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 82.0%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 79.3%. Positive and negative likelihood ratios are 4.6 and 0.3. Test re-test reliability revealed a Kappa coefficient of 0.88. CONCLUSIONS: The model developed to predict the risk of CRC among adults aged 30 years and above was proven to be valid and reliable and it is an effective tool to be used as the first step to identify the high-risk population who should be referred for colonoscopy examination.