RESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: At present, there is no reliable tool for predicting disease outcome in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We previously demonstrated an association between specific baseline biomarkers/clinical measures including matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3) and 2-year radiographic progression in patients with RA. This study further evaluates the predictive capability of these baseline variables with outcome extended over 8-years. METHODS: Fifty-eight of the original cohort (n = 118) had radiographic progression from baseline to mean 8.2-years determined using the van der Heijde modified Sharp method. The contribution of each predictor variable towards radiographic progression was assessed with univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Traditional factors (including erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP), and rheumatoid factor) and biomarkers of tissue destruction (including MMP-3, C-telopeptide of type II collagen, cartilage oligomeric matrix protein, and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1) measured at baseline were associated with radiographic progression at endpoint. Multivariate logistic regression identified anti-CCP seropositivity [OR 9.29, 95%CI: 2.29-37.64], baseline elevated MMP-3 [OR 8.25, 95%CI: 2.54-26.78] and baseline radiographic damage [OR 5.83, 95%CI: 1.88-18.10] as the strongest independent predictors of radiographic progression. A model incorporating these variables had a predictive accuracy of 0.87, assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. CONCLUSION: In our cohort with onset of RA symptoms < 2-years, multivariate analysis identified anti-CCP status and baseline MMP-3 as the strongest independent predictors of radiographic disease outcome at 8.2-years. This finding suggests determination of baseline MMP-3, in conjunction with traditional serologic markers, may provide additional prognostic information for patients with RA. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of continued research into a broad range of biomarkers as potential predictors of joint damage.