Development and Validation of HAS (Hajibandeh Index, ASA Status, Sarcopenia) - A Novel Model for Predicting Mortality After Emergency Laparotomy.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a predictive model to predict the risk of postoperative mortality after emergency laparotomy taking into account the following variables: age, age ≥ 80, ASA status, clinical frailty score, sarcopenia, Hajibandeh Index (HI), bowel resection, and intraperitoneal contamination. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The discriminative powers of the currently available predictive tools range between adequate and strong; none has demonstrated excellent discrimination yet. METHODS: The TRIPOD and STROCSS statement standards were followed to protocol and conduct a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who underwent emergency laparotomy due to non-traumatic acute abdominal pathology between 2017 and 2022. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was used to develop and validate the model via two protocols (Protocol A and B). The model performance was evaluated in terms of discrimination (ROC curve analysis), calibration (calibration diagram and Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and classification (classification table). RESULTS: One thousand forty-three patients were included (statistical power = 94%). Multivariable analysis kept HI (Protocol-A: P =0.0004; Protocol-B: P =0.0017), ASA status (Protocol-A: P =0.0068; Protocol-B: P =0.0007), and sarcopenia (Protocol-A: P <0.0001; Protocol-B: P <0.0001) as final predictors of 30-day postoperative mortality in both protocols; hence the model was called HAS (HI, ASA status, sarcopenia). The HAS demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC: 0.96, P <0.0001), excellent calibration ( P <0.0001), and excellent classification (95%) via both protocols. CONCLUSIONS: The HAS is the first model demonstrating excellent discrimination, calibration, and classification in predicting the risk of 30-day mortality following emergency laparotomy. The HAS model seems promising and is worth attention for external validation using the calculator provided. HAS mortality risk calculator https://app.airrange.io/#/element/xr3b_E6yLor9R2c8KXViSAeOSK .

Sarcopenia versus clinical frailty scale in predicting the risk of postoperative mortality after emergency laparotomy: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To compare predictive significance of sarcopenia and clinical frailty scale (CFS) in terms of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy METHODS: In compliance with STROCSS statement standards, a retrospective cohort study with prospective data collection approach was conducted. The study period was between January 2017 and January 2022. All adult patients with non-traumatic acute abdominal pathology who underwent emergency laparotomy in our centre were included. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality and secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and 90-day mortality. The predictive value of sarcopenia and CFS were compared using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1043 eligible patients were included. The risk of 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, and 90-day mortality were 8%, 10%, and 11%, respectively. ROC curve analysis suggested that sarcopenia is a significantly stronger predictor of 30-day mortality (AUC: 0.87 vs. 0.70, P<0.0001), in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0.79 vs. 0.67, P=0.0011), and 90-day mortality (AUC: 0.79 vs. 0.67, P=0.0009) compared with CFS. Moreover, multivariable binary logistic regression analysis identified sarcopenia as an independent predictor of mortality [coefficient: 4.333, OR: 76.16 (95% CI 37.06-156.52), P<0.0001] but not the CFS [coefficient: 0.096, OR: 1.10 (95% CI 0.88-1.38), P=0.4047]. CONCLUSIONS: Sarcopenia is a stronger predictor of postoperative mortality compared with CFS in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. It cancels out the predictive value of clinical frailty scale in multivariable analyses; hence among the two variables, sarcopenia deserves to be included in preoperative predictive tools.

Survivorship of 500 Cementless Total Knee Arthroplasties in Patients Under 55 Years of Age.

BACKGROUND: With respect to survivorship following total knee arthroplasty (TKA), joint registries consistently demonstrate higher revision rates for both genders in those aged less than 55 years. The present study analyzed the survivorship of 500 cementless TKAs performed in this age group in a high-volume primary joint unit where cementless TKA has traditionally been used for the majority of patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective review of 500 consecutive TKAs performed in patients aged less than 55 years between March 1994 and April 2017. The primary outcome measures for the study were survivorship and all-cause revisions. Secondary outcome measures included nonrevision procedures, clinical, functional, and radiological outcomes. RESULTS: An all-cause survival rate of 98.4% and an aseptic survival rate of 99.2% at a median time of 10.7 years (interquartile range 7.3-14.9, range 0.2-27.7) were found. Four patents were revised for infection, 2 for stiffness, 1 for aseptic loosening of the tibial component, and 1 for a patella that was resurfaced for anterior knee pain. Thirty four patients (6.8%) had a nonrevision procedure with manipulation under anesthetic accounting for 27. On a multivariate analysis, preoperative range of motion and female gender were negatively associated with postoperative range of motion (P < .001 and P = .003, respectively). Sixty seven patients (17.3%) had radioluscent lines and on a multivariate analysis, there were no significant predictors of radiolucent lines. CONCLUSION: Cementless TKA in the young patient can achieve excellent clinical and functional outcomes. At a median of 10.7 years, aseptic revision rates are exceptionally low at 0.8% for the entire cohort.

A meta-analysis of the long-term outcomes following surgery or endoscopic therapy for chronic pancreatitis.

PURPOSE: Refractory abdominal pain is a cardinal symptom of chronic pancreatitis (CP). Management strategies revolve around pain mitigation and resolution. Emerging evidence from observational studies highlights that surgery may result in superior pain relief when compared to endoscopic therapy; however, its impact on long-term quality of life or functional outcome has yet to be determined. METHODS: A search through MEDLINE, PubMed and Web of Science was performed for RCTs that compared endoscopic treatment with surgery for the management of CP. The main outcome measure was the impact on pain control. Secondary outcome measures were the effect on quality of life and the incidence rate of new onset exocrine and endocrine failure. Data was pooled for analysis using either an odds ratio (OR) or mean difference (MD) with a random effects model. RESULTS: Three RCTs were included with a total of 267 patients. Meta-analysis demonstrated that operative treatment was associated with a significantly higher rate of complete pain control (37%) when compared to endoscopic therapy (17%) [OR (95% confidence interval (CI)) 2.79 (1.53-5.08), p = 0.0008]. No difference was noted in the incidence of new onset endocrine or exocrine failure between treatment strategies. CONCLUSION: Surgical management of CP results in a greater extent of complete pain relief during long-term follow-up. Further research is required to evaluate the impact of the time interval between diagnosis and intervention on exocrine function, combined with the effect of early up-front islet auto-transplantation in order to determine whether long-term endocrine function can be achieved.

Risk Factors for Significant Radiolucent Line Development in a Fully Coated Hydroxyapatite Stem.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors for and clinical impact of radiolucent lines (RLLs) in cementless total hip arthroplasty remain contentious. The aim of this work was to describe a method of classification that has clinical significance and to identify risk factors. METHODS: A cohort of 288 subjects with unrevised Corail stems (DePuy Synthes, Warsaw, IN) were reviewed with radiographs and Oxford Hip Scores at 10 years. Based on clinical experience, three groups were defined; those with no RLLs (NoRLLs), those considered to have benign RLLs (BenRLLs), and those considered to have significant RLLs (SigRLLs). SigRLLs were then compared to BenRLLs and NoRLLs to determine the validity of this classification. RESULTS: One hundred and nine (37.8%) had NoRLLs, 111 (38.5%) had BenRLLs, and 68 (23.6%) had SigRLLs. No significant difference apart from gender was noted between the occurrence of BenRLLs and NoRLLs after multinomial regression analysis, consequently the NoRLLs and BenRLLs groups were combined (NoSigRLLs) and compared to SigRLLs. Non-cross-linked polyethylene (odds ratio = 4.6, P < .001), collarless stem design (odds ratio = 9.4, P < .001), undersizing (odds ratio = 1.2, P = .028), and male sex (odds ratio = 2.1, P = .008) were risk factors for SigRLLs. Regression analysis also revealed that increasing age at operation decreased the likelihood of SigRLLs (P < .001). Patients with SigRLLs had significantly higher pain scores (P = .005) although overall Oxford Hip Scores were not significantly different (P = .364). CONCLUSION: The definition of SigRLLs proposed in this study was significantly associated with that of non-cross-linked polyethylene, absence of a collar, undersizing, and higher pain scores.

HAS (Hajibandeh Index, American Society of Anesthesiologists Status, and Sarcopenia) Model Versus NELA (National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) Score in Predicting the Risk of Mortality After Emergency Laparotomy: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background The National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) mortality risk score is currently used in the UK to estimate mortality risk after emergency laparotomy. The HAS (Hajibandeh Index, American Society of Anesthesiologists status, and sarcopenia) is a novel model with excellent accuracy in predicting the risk of mortality after emergency laparotomy. This study aimed to compare the predictive performance of the HAS model and NELA score in estimating mortality risk following emergency laparotomy. Methodology A retrospective cohort study was conducted including consecutive adult patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between January 2019 and January 2022. Thirty-day mortality was the primary outcome. In-hospital mortality and 90-day mortality were the secondary outcomes. The predictive tools were compared in terms of discrimination via receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration via the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and classification via classification table. Results Analysis of 818 patients showed that the area under the curve of HAS was superior to NELA for 30-day mortality (0.97 vs. 0.86, p < 0.0001), in-hospital mortality (0.90 vs. 0.83, p = 0.0004), and 90-day mortality (0.90 vs. 0.83, p = 0.0004). HAS demonstrated good calibration for 30-day mortality (p = 0.286), in-hospital mortality (p = 0.48), and 90-day mortality (p = 0.48) while NELA score showed poor calibration for 30-day mortality (p = 0.001), in-hospital mortality (p = 0.001), and 90-day mortality (p = 0.001). Conclusions The HAS model was superior to the NELA score in predicting mortality after emergency laparotomy. The HAS model may be worth paying attention to for external validation.

Accuracy of the END-PAC Model in Predicting the Risk of Developing Pancreatic Cancer in Patients with New-Onset Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the performance of the END-PAC model in predicting pancreatic cancer risk in individuals with new-onset diabetes (NOD). METHODS: The PRISMA statement standards were followed to conduct a systematic review. All studies investigating the performance of the END-PAC model in predicting pancreatic cancer risk in individuals with NOD were included. Two-by-two tables, coupled forest plots and summary receiver operating characteristic plots were constructed using the number of true positives, false negatives, true negatives and false positives. Diagnostic random effects models were used to estimate summary sensitivity and specificity points. RESULTS: A total of 26,752 individuals from four studies were included. The median follow-up was 3 years and the pooled risk of pancreatic cancer was 0.8% (95% CI 0.6-1.0%). END-PAC score ≥ 3, which classifies the patients as high risk, was associated with better predictive performance (sensitivity: 55.8% (43.9-67%); specificity: 82.0% (76.4-86.5%)) in comparison with END-PAC score 1-2 (sensitivity: 22.2% (16.6-29.2%); specificity: 69.9% (67.3-72.4%)) and END-PAC score < 1 (sensitivity: 18.0% (12.8-24.6%); specificity: 50.9% (48.6-53.2%)) which classify the patients as intermediate and low risk, respectively. The evidence quality was judged to be moderate to high. CONCLUSIONS: END-PAC is a promising model for predicting pancreatic cancer risk in individuals with NOD. The score ≥3 should be considered as optimum cut-off value. More studies are needed to assess whether it could improve early pancreatic cancer detection rate, pancreatic cancer re-section rate, and pancreatic cancer treatment outcomes.

Determining the role of adjuvant therapy in Invasive Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms; a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Conflicting evidence exists regarding the role of adjuvant therapy for Invasive Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms (i-IPMN). This meta-analysis assessed whether adjuvant therapy improves Overall Survival (OS) in patients with resected i-IPMN. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed. The primary endpoint was the effect of adjuvant therapy on OS. Secondary endpoint evaluated adjuvant therapy with regard to nodal disease, positive resection margins, tumour grade and differentiation. A meta-analysis of pooled hazard ratios (HRs) with an inverse variance and a random-effects model was performed. Risk of bias was determined with the GRADE approach and MINORS criteria. RESULTS: Ten articles with a total of 3252 patients were included. No statistically significant difference in the OS was noted with adjuvant therapy for i-IPMN in the entire cohort (HR = 1; 95% CI = 0.75-1.35; P = 0.98). However, a survival benefit was noted in a subgroup of patients with an aggressive disease phenotype; nodal involvement (HR = 0.56; 95% CI = 0.39-0.79; P = 0.001) and advanced staged tumours (≥stage 2, HR = 1.42; 95% CI = 1.11-1.82; P = 0.005) CONCLUSIONS: The concurrent evidence base for adjuvant therapy for i-IPMN is limited. After acknowledging the limitations of the data, the current literature suggests that adjuvant therapy should be reserved for patients with resected i-IPMN that have adverse tumour biology.

Management of Staple Line Leaks Following Sleeve Gastrectomy-a Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: A staple line leak following a sleeve gastrectomy is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. No uniform guideline or consensus exists with regard to the optimal treatment approach to managing a staple line leak. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this systematic review is to assess the efficacy and success rates of the different treatment strategies for staple line leak following sleeve gastrectomy. METHODS: A thorough search through four online electronic databases was conducted using predefined search criteria. Our primary outcome measure was to review the treatment options described in the management of the staple line leak following laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. Successful initial management was defined as the proportion of cases that were successfully treated using the first modality described, with no escalation to another treatment option. RESULTS: A total of 26 articles were included in this systematic review. Successful initial management of 62% was achieved in patients who underwent endoscopic management, 76% in those who underwent surgery and 82% in patients treated conservatively. A total of 7 patient deaths were noted, all of which were patients who underwent surgery as the initial management of their staple line leak. CONCLUSION: Prompt identification and adequate source control are crucial to successfully manage a staple line leak following sleeve gastrectomy. Treatment options are influenced by the clinical status of the patient. A stepwise treatment escalation approach is required to improve outcomes.