Reconstructing household transmission dynamics to estimate the infectiousness of asymptomatic influenza virus infections.

There has long been controversy over the potential for asymptomatic cases of the influenza virus to have the capacity for onward transmission, but recognition of asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 stimulates further research into this topic. Here, we develop a Bayesian methodology to analyze detailed data from a large cohort of 727 households and 2515 individuals in the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreak in Hong Kong to characterize household transmission dynamics and to estimate the relative infectiousness of asymptomatic versus symptomatic influenza cases. The posterior probability that asymptomatic cases [36% of cases; 95% credible interval (CrI): 32%, 40%] are less infectious than symptomatic cases is 0.82, with estimated relative infectiousness 0.57 (95% CrI: 0.11, 1.54). More data are required to strengthen our understanding of the contribution of asymptomatic cases to the spread of influenza.

Preliminary findings from the Dynamics of the Immune Responses to Repeat Influenza Vaccination Exposures (DRIVE I) Study: a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Studies have reported that repeated annual vaccination may influence influenza vaccination effectiveness in the current season. METHODS: We established a 5-year randomized placebo-controlled trial of repeated influenza vaccination (Flublok, Sanofi Pasteur) in adults 18-45 years of age. In the first two years, participants received vaccination (V) or saline placebo (P) as follows: P-P, P-V, or V-V. Serum samples were collected each year just before vaccination and after 30 and 182 days. A subset of sera collected at 5 timepoints from 95 participants were tested for antibodies against vaccine strains. RESULTS: From 23 October 2020 through 11 March 2021 we enrolled and randomized 447 adults. Among vaccinated individuals, antibody titers increased between days 0 and 30 against each of the vaccine strains, with smaller increases for repeat vaccinees who on average had higher pre-vaccination titers in year 2. There were statistically significant differences in the proportion of participants achieving >=four-fold rises in antibody titer for the repeat vaccinees for influenza A(H1N1), B/Victoria and B/Yamagata, but not for A(H3N2). Among participants who received vaccination in year 2, there were no statistically significant differences between the P-V and V-V groups in geometric mean titers at day 30 or the proportions of participants with antibody titers ≥40 at day 30 for any of the vaccine strains. CONCLUSIONS: In the first two years, during which influenza did not circulate, repeat vaccinees and first-time vaccinees had similar post-vaccination geometric mean titers to all four vaccine strains, indicative of similar levels of clinical protection.

Decreased risk of non-influenza respiratory infection after influenza B virus infection in children.

Previous studies suggest that influenza virus infection may provide temporary non-specific immunity and hence lower the risk of non-influenza respiratory virus infection. In a randomized controlled trial of influenza vaccination, 1 330 children were followed-up in 2009-2011. Respiratory swabs were collected when they reported acute respiratory illness and tested against influenza and other respiratory viruses. We used Poisson regression to compare the incidence of non-influenza respiratory virus infection before and after influenza virus infection. Based on 52 children with influenza B virus infection, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of non-influenza respiratory virus infection after influenza virus infection was 0.47 (95% confidence interval: 0.27-0.82) compared with before infection. Simulation suggested that this IRR was 0.87 if the temporary protection did not exist. We identified a decreased risk of non-influenza respiratory virus infection after influenza B virus infection in children. Further investigation is needed to determine if this decreased risk could be attributed to temporary non-specific immunity acquired from influenza virus infection.

Intrinsic and Effective Severity of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases Infected With the Ancestral Strain and Omicron BA.2 Variant in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Understanding severity of infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its variants is crucial to inform public health measures. Here we used coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient data from Hong Kong to characterize the severity profile of COVID-19. METHODS: Time-varying and age-specific effective severity measured by case hospitalization risk and hospitalization fatality risk was estimated with all individual COVID-19 case data collected in Hong Kong from 23 January 2020 through 26 October 2022 over 6 epidemic waves. The intrinsic severity of Omicron BA.2 was compared with the estimate for the ancestral strain with the data from unvaccinated patients without previous infections. RESULTS: With 32 222 COVID-19 hospitalizations and 9669 deaths confirmed over 6 epidemic waves, the time-varying hospitalization fatality risk dramatically increased from <10% before the largest fifth wave of Omicron BA.2 to 41% during the peak of the fifth wave when hospital resources were severely constrained. The age-specific fatality risk in unvaccinated hospitalized Omicron cases was comparable to the estimates for unvaccinated cases with the ancestral strain. During epidemics predominated by Omicron BA.2, fatality risk was highest among older unvaccinated patients. CONCLUSIONS: Omicron has comparable intrinsic severity to the ancestral Wuhan strain, although the effective severity is substantially lower in Omicron cases due to vaccination.

Slow Waning of Antibodies Following BNT162b2 as a Third Dose in Adults Who Had Previously Received 2 Doses of Inactivated Vaccine.

We administered BNT162b2 as a third dose to 314 adults aged ≥30 years who had previously received 2 doses of inactivated vaccine. We collected blood samples before the third dose and again after 1 month and 6 months, and found robust antibody responses to the ancestral strain at 6 months after receipt of BNT162b2. Antibody responses to Omicron BA.2 by live virus neutralization were weaker after the third dose and had declined to a low level by 6 months.

Standard-dose versus MF59-adjuvanted, high-dose or recombinant-hemagglutinin influenza vaccine immunogenicity in older adults: comparison of A(H3N2) antibody response by prior season's vaccine status.

BACKGROUND: Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for older adults but repeated vaccination with standard-dose influenza vaccine has been linked to reduced immunogenicity and effectiveness, especially against A(H3N2) viruses. METHODS: Community-dwelling Hong Kong adults aged 65-82 years were randomly allocated to receive 2017/18 standard-dose quadrivalent, MF59-adjuvanted trivalent, high-dose trivalent, and recombinant-HA quadrivalent vaccination. Antibody response to unchanged A(H3N2) vaccine antigen was compared among participants with and without self-reported prior year (2016/17) standard-dose vaccination. RESULTS: Mean fold rise (MFR) in antibody titers from Day 0 to Day 30 by hemagglutination inhibition and virus microneutralization assays were lower among 2017/18 standard-dose and enhanced vaccine recipients with (range, 1.7-3.0) vs. without (range, 4.3-14.3) prior 2016/17 vaccination. MFR was significantly reduced by about one half to four fifths for previously vaccinated recipients of standard-dose and all three enhanced vaccines (ß range, 0.21-0.48). Among prior-year vaccinated older adults, enhanced vaccines induced higher 1.43 to 2.39-fold geometric mean titers and 1.28 to 1.74-fold MFR vs. standard-dose vaccine by microneutralization assay. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of unchanged A(H3N2) vaccine strain, prior-year vaccination was associated with reduced antibody response among both standard-dose and enhanced influenza vaccine recipients. Enhanced vaccines improved antibody response among older adults with prior-year standard-dose vaccination.

Immunogenicity of a Third Dose of BNT162b2 to Ancestral Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 and the Omicron Variant in Adults Who Received 2 Doses of Inactivated Vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on antibody responses to mixed vaccination strategies that involve inactivated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, particularly in the context of emerging variants. METHODS: We conducted an open-label trial of a third vaccine dose of a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine (BNT162b2, Fosun Pharma/BioNTech) in adults aged ≥30 years who had previously received 2 doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccine. We collected blood samples before administering the third dose and 28 days later and tested for antibodies to the ancestral virus using a binding assay (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [ELISA]), a surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT), and a live virus plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). We also tested for antibodies against the Omicron variant using live-virus PRNT. RESULTS: In 315 participants, a third dose of BNT162b2 substantially increased antibody titers on each assay. Mean ELISA levels increased from an optical density of 0.3 to 2.2 (P < .001), and mean sVNT levels increased from an inhibition of 17% to 96% (P < .001). In a random subset of 20 participants, the geometric mean PRNT50 titers rose substantially, by 45-fold from day 0 to day 28 against the ancestral virus (P < .001) and by 11-fold against the Omicron variant (P < .001). In daily monitoring, post-vaccination reactions subsided within 7 days for more than 99% of participants. CONCLUSIONS: A third dose of COVID-19 vaccine with an mRNA vaccine substantially improved antibody levels against the ancestral virus and the Omicron variant with a well-tolerated safety profile in adults who had received 2 doses of inactivated vaccine 6 months earlier. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT05057182.

Viral RNA and Infectious Influenza Virus on Mobile Phones of Patients With Influenza in Hong Kong and the United States.

Mobile phones are among the most highly touched personal objects. As part of a broader study on the contribution of fomites to influenza transmission, between 2017 and 2019, we swabbed mobile phones from 138 patients with influenza in 2 locations. Influenza viral RNA detection rates were 23% (23 of 99 phones) and 36% (14 of 39) in Hong Kong and Maryland, respectively. In Hong Kong, infectious influenza virus was recovered from 3 of 23 mobile phones which had influenza viral RNA detected. Mobile phone influenza contamination was positively associated with upper respiratory tract viral load and negatively associated with age. Cleaning personal objects of patients with influenza should be recommended, and individuals should avoid sharing objects with these patients.

Direct Renin Inhibition in Non-diabetic chronic Kidney disease (DRINK): a prospective randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The potential long-term safety and efficacy of aliskiren in nondiabetic chronic kidney disease (CKD) are unknown. We sought to investigate the renoprotective effect of aliskiren on nondiabetic CKD patients. METHODS: In this open-label, parallel, randomized controlled trial, nondiabetic CKD Stages 3-4 patients were randomized to receive aliskiren added to an angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) at the maximal tolerated dose, or ARB alone. Primary outcome was the rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Secondary endpoints included rate of change in urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR), cardiovascular events and hyperkalemia. Composite renal outcomes of doubling of baseline serum creatinine or a 40% reduction in eGFR or incident end-stage renal disease or death were analyzed as post hoc analysis. RESULTS: Seventy-six patients were randomized: 37 to aliskiren (mean age 55.1 ± 11.1 years) and 39 to control (mean age 55.0 ± 9.4 years). Their baseline demographics were comparable to eGFR (31.9 ± 9.0 versus 27.7 ± 9.0 mL/min/1.73 m2, P = 0.05) and UPCR (30.7 ± 12.6 versus 47.8 ± 2.8 mg/mmol, P = 0.33) for treatment versus control subjects. After 144 weeks of follow-up, there was no difference in the rate of eGFR change between groups. Six patients in the aliskiren group and seven in the control group reached the renal composite endpoint (16.2% versus 17.9%, P = 0.84). The cardiovascular event rate was 10.8% versus 2.6% (P = 0.217). The hyperkalemia rate was 18.9% versus 5.1% with an adjusted hazard ratio of 7.71 (95% confidence interval 1.14 to 52.3, P = 0.04) for the aliskiren arm. CONCLUSION: Aliskiren neither conferred additional renoprotective benefit nor increased adverse events, except for more hyperkalemia in nondiabetic CKD patients.

Comparative Reactogenicity of Enhanced Influenza Vaccines in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: We analyzed data from a randomized controlled trial on the reactogenicity of 3 enhanced influenza vaccines compared with standard-dose (SD) inactivated influenza vaccine. METHODS: We enrolled community-dwelling older adults in Hong Kong, and we randomly allocated them to receive 2017-2018 northern hemisphere formulations of SD vaccine (FluQuadri; Sanofi Pasteur), MF59-adjuvanted vaccine (FLUAD; Seqirus), high-dose (HD) vaccine (Fluzone High-Dose; Sanofi Pasteur), or recombinant hemagglutinin vaccine (Flublok; Sanofi Pasteur). Local and systemic reactions were evaluated at days 1, 3, 7, and 14 after vaccination. RESULTS: Reported reactions were generally mild and short-lived. Systemic reactions occurred in similar proportions of participants by vaccine. Some local reactions were slightly more frequently reported among recipients of the MF59-adjuvanted and HD vaccines than among SD vaccine recipients. Participants reporting feverishness 1 day after vaccination had mean fold rises in postvaccination hemagglutination inhibition titers that were 1.85-fold higher (95% confidence interval, 1.01-3.38) for A(H1N1) than in those who did not report feverishness. CONCLUSIONS: Some acute local reactions were more frequent after vaccination with MF59-adjuvanted and HD influenza vaccines, compared with SD inactivated influenza vaccine, whereas systemic symptoms occurred at similar frequencies in all groups. The association between feverishness and immunogenicity should be further investigated in a larger population. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03330132.

Presence of Influenza Virus on Touch Surfaces in Kindergartens and Primary Schools.

BACKGROUNDS: Influenza virus can survive on some surfaces, facilitating indirect person-to-person transmission. METHODS: We collected swab samples weekly from commonly touched surfaces in 7 kindergartens and primary schools during the 2017/2018 winter influenza season in Hong Kong. RESULTS: We detected influenza virus ribonucleic acid (RNA) in 12 of 1352 samples (<1%) collected from 7 of 11 classrooms (5 to 2 × 106 RNA copies/mL). Viral RNA was more frequently recovered from communal items inside classrooms such as bookshelves and doorknobs. CONCLUSIONS: Surface contamination indicates the potential role of fomites in influenza virus transmission in schools. Communal items inside classrooms may cause greater potential risks of transmission during influenza epidemics.

Comparative Immunogenicity of Several Enhanced Influenza Vaccine Options for Older Adults: A Randomized, Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced influenza vaccines may improve protection for older adults, but comparative immunogenicity data are limited. Our objective was to examine immune responses to enhanced influenza vaccines, compared to standard-dose vaccines, in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Community-dwelling older adults aged 65-82 years in Hong Kong were randomly allocated (October 2017-January 2018) to receive 2017-2018 Northern hemisphere formulations of a standard-dose quadrivalent vaccine, MF59-adjuvanted trivalent vaccine, high-dose trivalent vaccine, or recombinant-hemagglutinin (rHA) quadrivalent vaccine. Sera collected from 200 recipients of each vaccine before and at 30-days postvaccination were assessed for antibodies to egg-propagated vaccine strains by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and to cell-propagated A/Hong Kong/4801/2014(H3N2) virus by microneutralization (MN). Influenza-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses were assessed in 20 participants per group. RESULTS: Mean fold rises (MFR) in HAI titers to egg-propagated A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) and the MFR in MN to cell-propagated A(H3N2) were statistically significantly higher in the enhanced vaccine groups, compared to the standard-dose vaccine. The MFR in MN to cell-propagated A(H3N2) was highest among rHA recipients (4.7), followed by high-dose (3.4) and MF59-adjuvanted (2.9) recipients, compared to standard-dose recipients (2.3). Similarly, the ratio of postvaccination MN titers among rHA recipients to cell-propagated A(H3N2) recipients was 2.57-fold higher than the standard-dose vaccine, which was statistically higher than the high-dose (1.33-fold) and MF59-adjuvanted (1.43-fold) recipient ratios. Enhanced vaccines also resulted in the boosting of T-cell responses. CONCLUSIONS: In this head-to-head comparison, older adults receiving enhanced vaccines showed improved humoral and cell-mediated immune responses, compared to standard-dose vaccine recipients. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03330132.

A population-based study on healthcare-seeking behaviour of persons with symptoms of respiratory and gastrointestinal-related infections in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Studies on healthcare-seeking behaviour usually adopted a patient care perspective, or restricted to specific disease conditions. However, pre-diagnosis symptoms may be more relevant to healthcare-seeking behaviour from a patient perspective. We described healthcare-seeking behaviours by specific symptoms related to respiratory and gastrointestinal-related infections. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal population-based telephone survey in Hong Kong. We collected data on healthcare-seeking behaviour specific to symptoms of respiratory and gastrointestinal-related infections and also associated demographic factors. We performed descriptive analyses and estimated the proportion of participants who sought medical consultation, types of services utilized and duration from symptom onset to healthcare seeking, by different age groups. Post-stratification was used to compensate non-response and multiple imputation to handle missing and right-censored data. RESULTS: We recruited 2564 participants who reported a total of 4370 illness episodes and 7914 symptoms. Fatigue was the most frequently reported symptom, followed by headache and runny nose, with 30-day incidence rate of 9.1, 7.7, and 7.7% respectively. 78% of the participants who had fever sought medical consultation, followed by those with rash (60%) and shortness of breath (58%). Older adults (aged ≥55y) who had symptoms including fever, sore throat, and headache had a significantly higher consultation rate comparing to the other age groups. The 30-day incidence rates of influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory illness (ARI) were 0.8 and 7.2% respectively, and the consultation rates among these participants were 91 and 64%. Private general practitioner clinics was the main service utilized by participants for most of the symptoms considered, especially those related to acute illness such as fever, diarrhoea and vomiting. Chinese medicine clinics were mostly likely to be visited by participants with low back pain, myalgia and fatigue. Among participants who have sought medical services, most were within 3 days of symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare-seeking behaviour were different by symptoms and age. Characterization of these patterns provides crucial parameters for estimating the full burden of common infectious diseases from facility-based surveillance system, for planning and allocation of healthcare resources.

Immune Responses to Twice-Annual Influenza Vaccination in Older Adults in Hong Kong.

Background: Many health authorities recommend influenza vaccination of older adults to reduce disease burden. We hypothesized that in tropical and subtropical areas with more prolonged influenza seasons, twice-annual influenza vaccination might provide older adults with improved immunity against influenza. Methods: In 2014-2015, Hong Kong experienced a substantial A(H3N2) winter epidemic with a mismatched vaccine. Local authorities procured and administered to older adults the 2015 southern hemisphere influenza vaccine, which included an updated and matching A/Switzerland/9715293/2013(H3N2) strain. We compared immune parameters in pre- and postvaccination sera from older adults ≥75 years of age who received 1 vs 2 influenza vaccines per year. Results: We enrolled 978 older adults with 470 vaccinations for summer 2015 and 827 vaccinations for winter 2015-2016. Recipients of southern hemisphere vaccination had higher geometric mean titers (GMTs) by the hemagglutination inhibition assay against all 3 vaccine strains. When receiving influenza vaccination for the subsequent winter, the southern hemisphere vaccine recipients had higher prevaccination GMTs but lower postvaccination GMTs, compared to those who had not received the southern hemisphere vaccine. Furthermore, cellular immunity was impacted by biannual vaccination, with reduced influenza-specific CD4 T-cell responses in the second season of vaccination. Conclusions: We observed some reductions in immune responses in the twice-annual vaccination group compared with the once-annual vaccination group, in the context of unchanging vaccine strains, while protection was likely to have been improved during the summer and autumn for the twice-annual vaccination group due to the continued circulation of the A/Switzerland/9715293/2013(H3N2) virus.

Viral Shedding and Transmission Potential of Asymptomatic and Paucisymptomatic Influenza Virus Infections in the Community.

Background: Influenza virus infections are associated with a wide spectrum of disease. However, few studies have investigated in detail the epidemiological and virological characteristics of asymptomatic and mild illness with influenza virus infections. Methods: In a community-based study in Hong Kong from 2008 to 2014, we followed up initially healthy individuals who were household contacts of symptomatic persons with laboratory-confirmed influenza, to identify secondary infections. Information from daily symptom diaries was used to classify infections as symptomatic (≥2 signs/symptoms, including fever ≥37.8°C, headache, myalgia, cough, sore throat, runny nose and sputum), paucisymptomatic (1 symptom only), or asymptomatic (none of these symptoms). We compared the patterns of influenza viral shedding between these groups. Results: We identified 235 virologically confirmed secondary cases of influenza virus infection in the household setting, including 31 (13%) paucisymptomatic and 25 (11%) asymptomatic cases. The duration of viral RNA shedding was shorter and declined more rapidly in paucisymptomatic and asymptomatic than in symptomatic cases. The mean levels of influenza viral RNA shedding in asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases were approximately 1-2 log10 copies lower than in symptomatic cases. Conclusions: The presence of influenza viral shedding in patients with influenza who have very few or no symptoms reflects their potential for transmitting the virus to close contacts. These findings suggest that further research is needed to investigate the contribution of persons with asymptomatic or clinically mild influenza virus infections to influenza virus transmission in household, institutional, and community settings.

Outcomes and Susceptibility to Neuraminidase Inhibitors in Individuals Infected With Different Influenza B Lineages: The Influenza Resistance Information Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about how influenza infections caused by B/Victoria and B/Yamagata virus lineages compare with respect to disease course and susceptibility to antiviral therapy. METHODS: Data from patients with influenza B infections from the first 5 years (2009-2013) of the prospective Influenza Resistance Information Study (IRIS, NCT00884117) were evaluated. Cultured viruses were phenotypically tested for neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) sensitivity, and sequenced to determine virus lineage (B/Victoria or B/Yamagata). Differences in clinical outcomes (viral clearance and symptom resolution) between virus lineages were assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: In all, 914 patients were positive for influenza B by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction ( RT-PCR: B/Victoria, 586; B/Yamagata, 289; not subtyped, 39); 474 were treated with antivirals. No phenotypic resistance to oseltamivir or zanamivir was found in B/Victoria or B/Yamagata viruses. Of 15 predefined resistance mutations, 2 were detected by neuraminidase sequencing: I221T had reduced sensitivity to oseltamivir, and I221V was sensitive to NAI inhibition. No consistent differences between virus lineages in times to viral clearance or to symptom or fever resolution were found in adults and adolescents or in children. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza B virus lineage had no notable effect on disease outcomes or antiviral susceptibility in this population.

The Dynamic Relationship Between Clinical Symptomatology and Viral Shedding in Naturally Acquired Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Virus Infections.

BACKGROUND: Although the pattern of viral shedding over time has been documented in volunteer challenge studies, understanding of the relationship between clinical symptomatology and viral shedding in naturally acquired influenza infections in humans remains limited. METHODS: In a community-based study in Hong Kong from 2008 to 2014, we followed up initially healthy individuals and identified 224 secondary cases of natural influenza virus infection in the household setting. We examined the dynamic relationship between patterns of clinical symptomatology and viral shedding as quantified using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and viral culture in 127 cases with a clinical picture of acute respiratory infection. RESULTS: Viral shedding in influenza A virus infections peaked on the first 1-2 days of clinical illness, and decreased gradually to undetectable levels by day 6-7, matching closely with the dynamics of clinical illness. Viral shedding in influenza B virus infections rose up to 2 days prior to symptom onset and persisted for 6-7 days after onset with a bimodal pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that while clinical illness profiles may serve as a proxy for clinical infectiousness in influenza A virus infections, patients may potentially be infectious even before symptom onset or after clinical improvement in influenza B virus infections.

Interpreting Seroepidemiologic Studies of Influenza in a Context of Nonbracketing Sera.

BACKGROUND: In influenza epidemiology, analysis of paired sera collected from people before and after influenza seasons has been used for decades to study the cumulative incidence of influenza virus infections in populations. However, interpretation becomes challenging when sera are collected after the start or before the end of an epidemic, and do not neatly bracket the epidemic. METHODS: Serum samples were collected longitudinally in a community-based study. Most participants provided their first serum after the start of circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in 2009. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to correct for nonbracketing sera and estimate the cumulative incidence of infection from the serological data and surveillance data in Hong Kong. RESULTS: We analyzed 4,843 sera from 2,097 unvaccinated participants in the study, collected from April 2009 to December 2010. After accounting for nonbracketing, we estimated that the cumulative incidence of H1N1pdm09 virus infection was 45% (95% credible interval [CI] = 40%, 49%), 17% (95% CI = 13%, 20%), and 11% (95% CI = 6%, 18%) for children ages 0-18 years, adults 19-50 years, and older adults >50 years, respectively. Including all available data substantially increased precision compared with a simpler analysis based only on sera collected at 6-month intervals in a subset of participants. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a framework for the analysis of antibody titers that accounted for the timing of sera collection with respect to influenza activity and permitted robust estimation of the cumulative incidence of infection during an epidemic.

Influenza A Virus Shedding and Infectivity in Households.

BACKGROUND: Viral shedding is often considered to correlate with the infectivity of influenza, but the evidence for this is limited. METHODS: In a detailed study of influenza virus transmission within households in 2008-2012, index case patients with confirmed influenza were identified in outpatient clinics, and we collected nose and throat swab specimens for testing by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction from all household members regardless of illness. We used individual-based hazard models to characterize the relationship between viral load (V) and infectivity. RESULTS: Assuming that infectivity was proportional to viral load V gave the worst fit, because it strongly overestimated the proportion of transmission occurring at symptom onset. Alternative models assuming that infectivity was proportional to a various functions of V provided better fits, although they all overestimated the proportion of transmission occurring >3 days after symptom onset. The best fitting model assumed that infectivity was proportion to V(γ), with estimates of γ = 0.136 and γ = 0.156 for seasonal influenza A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: All the models we considered that used viral loads to approximate infectivity of a case imperfectly explained the timing of influenza secondary infections in households. Identification of more accurate correlates of infectivity will be important to inform control policies and disease modeling.

Association of Oseltamivir Treatment With Virus Shedding, Illness, and Household Transmission of Influenza Viruses.

In an observational study of 582 patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections and their household contacts, we found that the initiation of oseltamivir within 24 hours was associated with shorter duration of self-reported illness symptoms (56% reduction in duration; 95% confidence interval, 41%-67%). However, we did not find any association of oseltamivir treatment with duration of viral shedding by polymerase chain reaction or with the risk of household transmission.