Quantile regressions as a tool to evaluate how an exposure shifts and reshapes the outcome distribution: A primer for epidemiologists.

Quantifying how an exposure affects the entire outcome distribution is often important, e.g., for outcomes such as blood pressure which have non-linear effects on long-term morbidity and mortality. Quantile regressions offer a powerful way of estimating an exposure's relationship with the outcome distribution but remain underused in epidemiology. We introduce quantile regressions with a focus on distinguishing estimators for quantiles of the conditional and unconditional outcome distributions. We also present an empirical example in which we fit mean and quantile regressions to investigate educational attainment's association with later-life systolic blood pressure (SBP). We use data on 8,875 US-born respondents aged 50+ years from the US Health and Retirement Study. More education was negatively associated with mean SBP. Conditional and unconditional quantile regressions both suggested a negative association between education and SBP at all levels of SBP, but the absolute magnitudes of these associations were higher at higher SBP quantiles relative to lower quantiles. In addition to showing that educational attainment shifted the SBP distribution left-wards, quantile regression results revealed that education may have reshaped the SBP distribution through larger protective associations in the right tail, thus benefiting those at highest risk of cardiovascular diseases.

Updated Estimates and Mapping for Prevalence of Chagas Disease among Adults, United States.

We combined American Community Survey data with age-specific Trypanosoma cruzi prevalence derived from US surveys and World Health Organization reports to yield estimates of Chagas disease in the United States, which we mapped at the local level. In addition, we used blood donor data to estimate the relative prevalence of autochthonous T. cruzi infection. Our estimates indicate that 288,000 infected persons, including 57,000 Chagas cardiomyopathy patients and 43,000 infected reproductive-age women, currently live in the United States; 22-108 congenital infections occur annually. We estimated ≈10,000 prevalent cases of locally acquired T. cruzi infection. Mapping shows marked geographic heterogeneity of T. cruzi prevalence and illness. Reliable demographic and geographic data are key to guiding prevention and management of Chagas disease. Population-based surveys in high prevalence areas could improve the evidence base for future estimates. Knowledge of the demographics and geographic distribution of affected persons may aid practitioners in recognizing Chagas disease.

A Randomized Study to Assess the Effect of Including the Graduate Record Examinations Results on Reviewer Scores for Underrepresented Minorities.

Whether requiring Graduate Record Examinations (GRE) results for doctoral applicants affects the diversity of admitted cohorts remains uncertain. This study randomized applications to 2 population-health doctoral programs at the University of California San Francisco to assess whether masking reviewers to applicant GRE results differentially affects reviewers' scores for underrepresented minority (URM) applicants from 2018-2020. Applications with GRE results and those without were randomly assigned to reviewers to designate scores for each copy (1-10, 1 being best). URM was defined as self-identification as African American/Black, Filipino, Hmong, Vietnamese, Hispanic/Latinx, Native American/Alaska Native, or Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander. We used linear mixed models with random effects for the applicant and fixed effects for each reviewer to evaluate the effect of masking the GRE results on the overall application score and whether this effect differed by URM status. Reviewer scores did not significantly differ for unmasked versus masked applications among non-URM applicants (ß = 0.15; 95% CI: -0.03, 0.33) or URM applicants (ß = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.49, 0.54). We did not find evidence that removing GREs differentially affected URM compared with non-URM students (ß for interaction = -0.13, 95% CI: -0.55, 0.29). Within these doctoral programs, results indicate that GRE scores neither harm nor help URM applicants.

Comparative Performance of Latest-Generation and FDA-Cleared Serology Tests for the Diagnosis of Chagas Disease.

Confirmed diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease (CD) requires positive results by two different IgG serology tests. Variable sensitivity has been reported among tests and in different geographic regions. Inadequate specificity presents a particular challenge in low-prevalence settings such as the United States. This study provides a direct comparison of the latest-generation IgG serology assays with four previously assessed FDA-cleared tests. Seven hundred ten blood donor plasma specimens were evaluated by Wiener Lisado and Wiener v.4.0 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and Abbott PRISM Chagas chemiluminescent assay (ChLIA). Sensitivity and specificity were assessed relative to infection status as determined by the original blood donation testing algorithm. All three latest-generation assays demonstrated 100% specificity (95% confidence interval [CI], 98.6 to 100.0). Wiener Lisado, Wiener v.4.0, and Abbott PRISM had sensitivities of 97.1% (95% CI, 95.1 to 98.4), 98.9% (95% CI, 97.4 to 99.6), and 95.5% (95% CI, 93.2 to 97.3), respectively. As with previously evaluated FDA-cleared tests, all three assays had the highest reactivity and sensitivity in samples from donors born in South America and lowest reactivity and sensitivity in specimens from those born in Mexico, with intermediate results in specimens from Central American donors. Wiener v.4.0 had the highest diagnostic sensitivity in all comparisons. Our findings suggest that the latest-generation CD serology tests could improve diagnostic sensitivity without affecting specificity.

Outdoor Residential Water Use Restrictions during Recent Drought Suppressed Disease Vector Abundance in Southern California.

The California state government put restrictions on outdoor residential water use, including landscape irrigation, during the 2012-2016 drought. The public health implications of these actions are largely unknown, particularly with respect to mosquito-borne disease transmission. While residential irrigation facilitates persistence of mosquitoes by increasing the availability of standing water, few studies have investigated its effects on vector abundance. In two study sub-regions in the Los Angeles Basin, we examined the effect of outdoor residential water use restrictions on the abundance of the most important regional West Nile virus vector, Culex quinquefasciatus. Using spatiotemporal random forest models fit to Cx. abundance during drought and non-drought years, we generated counterfactual estimates of Cx. abundance under a hypothetical drought scenario without water use restrictions. We estimate that Cx. abundance would have been 44% and 39% larger in West Los Angeles and Orange counties, respectively, if outdoor water usage had remained unchanged. Our results suggest that drought, without mandatory water use restrictions, may counterintuitively increase the availability of larval habitats for vectors in naturally dry, highly irrigated settings and such mandatory water use restrictions may constrain Cx. abundance, which could reduce the risk of mosquito-borne disease while helping urban utilities maintain adequate water supplies.

Chagas Disease Serological Test Performance in U.S. Blood Donor Specimens.

Chagas disease affects an estimated 300,000 individuals in the United States. Diagnosis in the chronic phase requires positive results from two different IgG serological tests. Three enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) (Hemagen, Ortho, and Wiener) and one rapid test (InBios) are FDA cleared, but comparative data in U.S. populations are sparse. We evaluated 500 seropositive and 300 seronegative blood donor plasma samples. Country of birth was known for 255 seropositive specimens, which were grouped into regions as follows: Mexico (n = 94), Central America (n = 88), and South America (n = 73). Specimens were tested by the four FDA-cleared IgG serological assays. Test performance was evaluated by two comparators and latent class analysis. InBios had the highest sensitivity (97.4% to 99.3%) but the lowest specificity (87.5% to 92.3%). Hemagen had the lowest sensitivity (88.0% to 92.0%) but high specificity (99.0% to 100.0%). The level of sensitivity was intermediate for Ortho (92.4% to 96.5%) and Wiener (94.0% to 97.1%); both had high specificity (98.8% to 100.0% and 96.7% to 99.3%, respectively). The levels of antibody reactivity and clinical sensitivity were lowest in donors from Mexico, intermediate in those from Central America, and highest in those from South America. Our findings provide an initial evidence base to improve laboratory diagnosis of Chagas disease in the United States. The best current testing algorithm would employ a high-sensitivity screening test followed by a high-specificity confirmatory test.

Diet-Induced Changes in Functional Disability among People with Multiple Sclerosis: A Secondary Pooled Analysis of Two Randomized Controlled Pilot Trials.

Emerging evidence links dietary interventions to favorable multiple sclerosis (MS) outcomes; however, evidence for the efficacy of dietary interventions on functional disability remains sparse. Data from two 12-week, randomized, controlled pilot trials were pooled to investigate the efficacy of a modified Paleolithic diet (Paleo) on functional disability, as assessed by the MS Functional Composite (MSFC), among people diagnosed with MS. Pooled baseline-referenced MSFC scores were calculated from the nine-hole peg test (NHPT), timed 25-foot walk (T25FW), and Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) Z-scores. There was no significant difference in the mean change in MSFC scores between groups (p = 0.07). In the Paleo group, a significant increase was observed in the MSFC scores (p = 0.03), NHPT (p < 0.001), and PASAT (p = 0.04) Z-scores at 12 weeks, indicating reduced functional disability compared to baseline values. No significant changes were observed within the Control group. Study-specific differences in the MSFC changes between groups were observed. Functional disability was reduced compared to the baseline in the Paleo group, possibly depending on MS type. These results provide preliminary observations on the efficacy of a modified Paleolithic diet for reducing or maintaining functional disability in MS.

Association between indoor residual spraying and pregnancy outcomes: a quasi-experimental study from Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Indoor residual spraying with insecticide (IRS) reduces malaria infections, yet the effects of IRS on pregnancy outcomes are not well established. We evaluated the impact of a large-scale IRS campaign on pregnancy outcomes in Eastern Uganda. METHODS: Birth records (n = 59 992) were obtained from routine surveillance data at 25 health facilities from five districts that were part of the IRS campaign and six neighbouring control districts ∼27 months before and ∼24 months after the start of the campaign (January 2013-May 2017). Campaign effects on low birthweight (LBW) and stillbirth incidence were estimated using the matrix completion method (MC-NNM), a machine-learning approach to estimating potential outcomes, and compared with the difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator. Subgroup analyses were conducted by HIV and gravidity. RESULTS: MC-NNM estimates indicated that the campaign was associated with a 33% reduction in LBW incidence: incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-0.93)]. DiD estimates were similar to MC-NNM [IRR = 0.69 (0.47-1.01)], despite a parallel trends violation during the pre-IRS period. The campaign was not associated with substantial reductions in stillbirth incidence [IRRMC-NNM = 0.94 (0.50-1.77)]. HIV status modified the effects of the IRS campaign on LBW [ßIRSxHIV = 0.42 (0.05-0.78)], whereby HIV-negative women appeared to benefit from the campaign [IRR = 0.70 (0.61-0.81)], but not HIV-positive women [IRR = 1.12 (0.59-2.12)]. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the effectiveness of the campaign in Eastern Uganda based on its benefit to LBW prevention, though HIV-positive women may require additional interventions. The IRS campaign was not associated with a substantively lower stillbirth incidence, warranting further research.

Paid Family Leave and Mental Health in the U.S.: A Quasi-Experimental Study of State Policies.

INTRODUCTION: Several U.S. states have implemented paid family leave policies for new parents. Few studies have evaluated the impacts of U.S. paid family leave policies on families' health. This study tests the hypothesis that paid family leave policies in California and New Jersey improved parent and child mental health. METHODS: Using national data from the 1997-2016 waves of the National Health Interview Survey, the study assessed changes in parental psychological distress (measured using the Kessler 6 score, n=28,638) and child behavioral problems (measured using the Mental Health Indicator score, n=15,987) using difference-in-differences analysis, a quasi-experimental method that compared outcomes before and after the implementation of paid family leave policies in California and New Jersey while accounting for secular trends in states without paid family leave policies. Secondary analyses were conducted to assess differential responses among prespecified subgroups. Data analysis was conducted in 2018-2021. RESULTS: Exposure to paid family leave policies was associated with decreased psychological distress among parents (-0.49, 95% CI= -0.77, -0.21). There was no association between the paid family leave policies and children's behavioral problems (-0.06, 95% CI= -0.13, 0.012). Associations varied by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, with some subgroups experiencing benefits, whereas others were negatively impacted. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings suggest that state paid family leave policies improved mental health among parents, with mixed findings among children, including positive, negative, or no changes in mental health, depending on the subgroup. Future work should clarify how more recent state policies, some of which provide more generous benefits and job protections for low-income parents, influence health among affected families.

Chikungunya and O'nyong-nyong Viruses in Uganda: Implications for Diagnostics.

BACKGROUND: A serosurvey of healthy blood donors provided evidence of hemorrhagic fever and arthropod-borne virus infections in Uganda. METHODS: Antibody prevalence to arthropod-borne and hemorrhagic fever viruses in human sera was determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). RESULTS: The greatest antibody prevalence determined by ELISA was to chikungunya virus (CHIKV) followed in descending order by West Nile virus (WNV), Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), Ebola virus (EBOV), dengue virus (DEN), yellow fever virus (YFV), Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), Marburg virus (MARV), and Lassa virus (LASV). Further investigation of CHIKV-positive sera demonstrated that the majority of antibody responses may likely be the result of exposure to the closely related alphavirus o'nyong-nyong virus (ONNV). CONCLUSIONS: As the use of highly specific and sensitive polymerase chain reaction-based assays becomes the diagnostic standard without the corresponding use of the less sensitive but more broadly reactive immunological-based assays, emerging and re-emerging outbreaks will be initially missed, illustrating the need for an orthogonal system for the detection and identification of viruses causing disease.

Comparative phylogeography and population genetics within Buteo lineatus reveals evidence of distinct evolutionary lineages.

Traditional subspecies classifications may suggest phylogenetic relationships that are discordant with evolutionary history and mislead evolutionary inference. To more accurately describe evolutionary relationships and inform conservation efforts, we investigated the genetic relationships and demographic histories of Buteo lineatus subspecies in eastern and western North America using 21 nuclear microsatellite loci and 375-base pairs of mitochondrial control region sequence. Frequency based analyses of mitochondrial sequence data support significant population distinction between eastern (B. l. lineatus/alleni/texanus) and western (B. l.elegans) subspecies of B. lineatus. This distinction was further supported by frequency and Bayesian analyses of the microsatellite data. We found evidence of differing demographic histories between regions; among eastern sites, mitochondrial data suggested that rapid population expansion occurred following the end of the last glacial maximum, with B. l. texanus population expansion preceding that of B. l. lineatus/alleni. No evidence of post-glacial population expansion was detected among western samples (B. l.elegans). Rather, microsatellite data suggest that the western population has experienced a recent bottleneck, presumably associated with extensive anthropogenic habitat loss during the 19th and 20th centuries. Our data indicate that eastern and western populations of B. lineatus are genetically distinct lineages, have experienced very different demographic histories, and suggest management as separate conservation units may be warranted.

Randomized control trial evaluation of a modified Paleolithic dietary intervention in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: A Paleolithic diet may improve fatigue and quality of life in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) patients, but past research has evaluated the effects of this dietary intervention in combination with other treatments such as exercise. Thus, the purpose of this pilot study was to evaluate a modified Paleolithic dietary intervention (MPDI) in the treatment of fatigue and other symptoms in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). METHODS: We measured the effects of a MPDI in 17 individuals with RRMS. Of 34 subjects randomly assigned to control (maintain usual diet) and intervention (MPDI) groups, nine subjects (one man) completed the control group and eight subjects (one man) completed the MPDI. RESULTS: Significant improvements were seen in Fatigue Severity Scale score and also in Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54 and time to complete (dominant hand) 9-Hole Peg Test from baseline in MPDI subjects compared to controls. Increased vitamin K serum levels were also observed in MPDI subjects postprotocol compared to controls. CONCLUSION: A Paleolithic diet may be useful in the treatment and management of MS, by reducing perceived fatigue, increasing mental and physical quality of life, increasing exercise capacity, and improving hand and leg function. By increasing vitamin K serum levels, the MPDI may also reduce inflammation.