Plant traits and associated data from a warming experiment, a seabird colony, and along elevation in Svalbard.

The Arctic is warming at a rate four times the global average, while also being exposed to other global environmental changes, resulting in widespread vegetation and ecosystem change. Integrating functional trait-based approaches with multi-level vegetation, ecosystem, and landscape data enables a holistic understanding of the drivers and consequences of these changes. In two High Arctic study systems near Longyearbyen, Svalbard, a 20-year ITEX warming experiment and elevational gradients with and without nutrient input from nesting seabirds, we collected data on vegetation composition and structure, plant functional traits, ecosystem fluxes, multispectral remote sensing, and microclimate. The dataset contains 1,962 plant records and 16,160 trait measurements from 34 vascular plant taxa, for 9 of which these are the first published trait data. By integrating these comprehensive data, we bridge knowledge gaps and expand trait data coverage, including on intraspecific trait variation. These data can offer insights into ecosystem functioning and provide baselines to assess climate and environmental change impacts. Such knowledge is crucial for effective conservation and management in these vulnerable regions.

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date.

Herbivore species coexistence in changing rangeland ecosystems: First high resolution national open-source and open-access ensemble models for Iceland.

Rangeland ecosystems are changing worldwide with the abandonment of extensive pastoralism practices and greater interest for species coexistence. However, the lack of compiled data on current changes in the abundance and distribution of herbivores challenges rangeland management decisions. Here we gathered and made available for the first time the most extensive set of occurrence data for rangeland herbivores in Iceland in an Open Access framework for transparent and repeatable science-based decisions. We mapped fine scale species distribution overlap to identify areas at risk for wildlife-livestock conflict and overgrazing. Nationwide and long term (1861-2021) occurrence data from 8 independent datasets were used alongside 11 predictor raster layers ("Big Data") to data mine and map the distribution of the domestic sheep (Ovis aries), feral reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus), pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus), and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta islandorum) over the country during the summer. Using algorithms of Maxent in R, RandomForest, TreeNet (stochastic gradient boosting) and MARS (Splines) in Minitab-SPM 8.3, we computed 1 km pixel predictions from machine learning-based ensemble models. Our high-resolution models were tested with alternative datasets, and Area Under the Curve (AUC) values that indicated good (reindeer: 0.8817 and rock ptarmigan: 0.8844) to high model accuracy (sheep: 0.9708 and pink-footed goose: 0.9143). Whenever possible, source data and models are made available online and described with ISO-compliant metadata. Our results illustrate that sheep and pink-footed geese have the greatest overlap in distribution with potential implication for wildlife-livestock conflicts and continued ecosystem degradation even under diminishing livestock abundance at higher elevation. These nationwide models and data are a global asset and a first step in making available the best data for science-based sustainable decision-making about national herbivores affecting species coexistence and environmental management.

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants.

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

The Total and Active Bacterial Community of the Chlorolichen Cetraria islandica and Its Response to Long-Term Warming in Sub-Arctic Tundra.

Lichens are traditionally defined as a symbiosis between a fungus and a green alga and or a cyanobacterium. This idea has been challenged by the discovery of bacterial communities inhabiting the lichen thalli. These bacteria are thought to contribute to the survival of lichens under extreme and changing environmental conditions. How these changing environmental conditions affect the lichen-associated bacterial community composition remains unclear. We describe the total (rDNA-based) and potentially metabolically active (rRNA-based) bacterial community of the lichen Cetaria islandica and its response to long-term warming using a 20-year warming experiment in an Icelandic sub-Arctic tundra. 16S rRNA and rDNA amplicon sequencing showed that the orders Acetobacterales (of the class Alphaproteobacteria) and Acidobacteriales (of the phylum Acidobacteria) dominated the bacterial community. Numerous amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) could only be detected in the potentially active community but not in the total community. Long-term warming led to increases in relative abundance of bacterial taxa on class, order and ASV level. Warming altered the relative abundance of ASVs of the most common bacterial genera, such as Granulicella and Endobacter. The potentially metabolically active bacterial community was also more responsive to warming than the total community. Our results suggest that the bacterial community of the lichen C. islandica is dominated by acidophilic taxa and harbors disproportionally active rare taxa. We also show for the first time that climate warming can lead to shifts in lichen-associated bacterial community composition.

High Arctic ecosystem states: Conceptual models of vegetation change to guide long-term monitoring and research.

Vegetation change has consequences for terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning and may involve climate feedbacks. Hence, when monitoring ecosystem states and changes thereof, the vegetation is often a primary monitoring target. Here, we summarize current understanding of vegetation change in the High Arctic-the World's most rapidly warming region-in the context of ecosystem monitoring. To foster development of deployable monitoring strategies, we categorize different kinds of drivers (disturbances or stresses) of vegetation change either as pulse (i.e. drivers that occur as sudden and short events, though their effects may be long lasting) or press (i.e. drivers where change in conditions remains in place for a prolonged period, or slowly increases in pressure). To account for the great heterogeneity in vegetation responses to climate change and other drivers, we stress the need for increased use of ecosystem-specific conceptual models to guide monitoring and ecological studies in the Arctic. We discuss a conceptual model with three hypothesized alternative vegetation states characterized by mosses, herbaceous plants, and bare ground patches, respectively. We use moss-graminoid tundra of Svalbard as a case study to discuss the documented and potential impacts of different drivers on the possible transitions between those states. Our current understanding points to likely additive effects of herbivores and a warming climate, driving this ecosystem from a moss-dominated state with cool soils, shallow active layer and slow nutrient cycling to an ecosystem with warmer soil, deeper permafrost thaw, and faster nutrient cycling. Herbaceous-dominated vegetation and (patchy) bare ground would present two states in response to those drivers. Conceptual models are an operational tool to focus monitoring efforts towards management needs and identify the most pressing scientific questions. We promote greater use of conceptual models in conjunction with a state-and-transition framework in monitoring to ensure fit for purpose approaches. Defined expectations of the focal systems' responses to different drivers also facilitate linking local and regional monitoring efforts to international initiatives, such as the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program.

Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: Evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring.

Changes in Arctic vegetation can have important implications for trophic interactions and ecosystem functioning leading to climate feedbacks. Plot-based vegetation surveys provide detailed insight into vegetation changes at sites around the Arctic and improve our ability to predict the impacts of environmental change on tundra ecosystems. Here, we review studies of changes in plant community composition and phenology from both long-term monitoring and warming experiments in Arctic environments. We find that Arctic plant communities and species are generally sensitive to warming, but trends over a period of time are heterogeneous and complex and do not always mirror expectations based on responses to experimental manipulations. Our findings highlight the need for more geographically widespread, integrated, and comprehensive monitoring efforts that can better resolve the interacting effects of warming and other local and regional ecological factors.

Author Correction: Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities.

In the version of this Article originally published, the following sentence was missing from the Acknowledgements: "This work was supported by the Norwegian Research Council SnoEco project, grant number 230970". This text has now been added.

Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities.

Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.

Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

Definition of sampling units begets conclusions in ecology: the case of habitats for plant communities.

In ecology, expert knowledge on habitat characteristics is often used to define sampling units such as study sites. Ecologists are especially prone to such approaches when prior sampling frames are not accessible. Here we ask to what extent can different approaches to the definition of sampling units influence the conclusions that are drawn from an ecological study? We do this by comparing a formal versus a subjective definition of sampling units within a study design which is based on well-articulated objectives and proper methodology. Both approaches are applied to tundra plant communities in mesic and snowbed habitats. For the formal approach, sampling units were first defined for each habitat in concave terrain of suitable slope using GIS. In the field, these units were only accepted as the targeted habitats if additional criteria for vegetation cover were fulfilled. For the subjective approach, sampling units were defined visually in the field, based on typical plant communities of mesic and snowbed habitats. For each approach, we collected information about plant community characteristics within a total of 11 mesic and seven snowbed units distributed between two herding districts of contrasting reindeer density. Results from the two approaches differed significantly in several plant community characteristics in both mesic and snowbed habitats. Furthermore, differences between the two approaches were not consistent because their magnitude and direction differed both between the two habitats and the two reindeer herding districts. Consequently, we could draw different conclusions on how plant diversity and relative abundance of functional groups are differentiated between the two habitats depending on the approach used. We therefore challenge ecologists to formalize the expert knowledge applied to define sampling units through a set of well-articulated rules, rather than applying it subjectively. We see this as instrumental for progress in ecology as only rules based on expert knowledge are transparent and lead to results reproducible by other ecologists.