A validation study of UCSD-Mayo risk score in predicting hospital-acquired acute kidney injury in COVID-19 patients.

INTRODUCTION: Acute kidney injury (AKI) in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients is associated with poor prognosis. Early prediction and intervention of AKI are vital for improving clinical outcome of COVID-19 patients. As lack of tools for early AKI detection in COVID-19 patients, this study aimed to validate the USCD-Mayo risk score in predicting hospital-acquired AKI in an extended multi-center COVID-19 cohort. METHODS: Five hundred seventy-two COVID-19 patients from Wuhan Tongji Hospital Guanggu Branch, Wuhan Leishenshan Hospital, and Wuhan No. Ninth Hospital was enrolled for this study. Patients who developed AKI or reached an outcome of recovery or death during the study period were included. Predictors were evaluated according to data extracted from medical records. RESULTS: Of all patients, a total of 44 (8%) developed AKI. The UCSD-Mayo risk score achieved excellent discrimination in predicting AKI with the C-statistic of 0.88 (95%CI: 0.84-0.91). Next, we determined the UCSD-Mayo risk score had good overall performance (Nagelkerke R2 = 0.32) and calibration in our cohort. Further analysis showed that the UCSD-Mayo risk score performed well in subgroups defined by gender, age, and several chronic comorbidities. However, the discrimination of the UCSD-Mayo risk score in ICU patients and patients with mechanical ventilation was not good which might be resulted from different risk factors of these patients. CONCLUSIONS: We validated the performance of UCSD-Mayo risk score in predicting hospital-acquired AKI in COVID-19 patients was excellent except for patients from ICU or patients with mechanical ventilation.

Develop and Validate a Risk Score in Predicting Renal Failure in Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis.

Introduction: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk score (RS) for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). Methods: Patient with biopsy-proven FSGS was enrolled. All the patients were allocated 1:1 to the two groups according to their baseline gender, age, and baseline creatinine level by using a stratified randomization method. ESKD was the primary endpoint. Results: We recruited 359 FSGS patients, and 177 subjects were assigned to group 1 and 182 to group 2. The clinicopathological variables were similar between two groups. There were 23 (13%) subjects reached to ESKD in group 1 and 22 (12.1%) in group 2. By multivariate Cox regression analyses, we established RS 1 and RS 2 in groups 1 and 2, respectively. RS 1 consists of five parameters including lower eGFR, higher urine protein, MAP, IgG level, and tubulointerstitial lesion (TIL) score; RS 2 also consists of five predictors including lower C3, higher MAP, IgG level, hemoglobin, and TIL score. RS 1 and RS 2 were cross-validated between these two groups, showing RS 1 had better performance in predicting 5-year ESKD in group 1 (c statics, 0.86 [0.74-0.98] vs. 0.82 [0.69-0.95]) and group 2 (c statics, 0.91 [0.83-0.99] vs. 0.89 [0.79-0.99]) compared to RS 2. We then stratified the risk factors into four groups, and Kaplan-Meier survival curve revealed that patients progressed to ESKD increased as risk levels increased. Conclusions: A predictive model incorporated clinicopathological feature was developed and validated for the prediction of ESKD in FSGS patients.