RESUMEN
Photochemical action plots are a powerful tool for mapping photochemical reaction outcomes wavelength-by-wavelength. Typically, they map either the depletion of a reactant or the formation of a specific product as a function of wavelength. Herein, we exploit action plots to simultaneously map the formation of several photochemical products from a single chromophore. We demonstrate that the wavelength-resolved mapping of two reaction products formed during the irradiation of a chalcone species not only shows wavelength dependence - exhibiting the typical strong red-shift of the photochemical reactivity compared to the absorbance spectrum of the chromophore - but also a strong wavelength selectivity with remarkably different product distributions resulting from different irradiation wavelengths.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Community-based organizations (CBOs) are key players in health and social care integration initiatives, yet little is known about CBO perspectives and experiences in these pilot programs. Understanding CBO perspectives is vital to identifying best practices for successful medical and social care integration. METHODS: From February 2021 to March 2021, we conducted surveys with 12 CBOs that participated in the North Carolina COVID-19 Social Support Program, a pre-pilot for North Carolina's Medicaid Sect. 1115 demonstration waiver program that addresses social drivers of health. RESULTS: CBO participants preferred communication strategies that involved direct communication and felt clear communication was vital to the program's success. Participants expressed varied experiences regarding their ability to handle a changing volume of referrals. Participants identified their organizations' strengths as: strong organizational operations, past experiences with and understanding of the community, and coordination across organizations. Participants identified challenges as: difficulty communicating with clients, coping with capacity demands for scaling services, and lack of clear processes from external organizations. Almost all CBO participants expressed enthusiasm for participating in similar social care transformation programs in the future. CONCLUSIONS: CBO participants in our study had broadly positive experiences in the pilot program and almost all would participate in a similar program in the future. Participants provided perspectives that can inform health and social care integration initiatives, including strengths and challenges in such programs. To build and sustain health and social care integration programs, it is important to: (1) support CBOs through regular, direct communication that builds trust and power-sharing between CBO and health care entities; (2) leverage CBO community expertise; and (3) pursue an individualized assessment of CBO capacity and identify CBO capacity-building strategies that ensure program success and sustainability.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Humanos , North Carolina , COVID-19/epidemiología , Servicios de Salud , Apoyo Social , OrganizacionesRESUMEN
Population projection models are important tools for conservation and management. They are often used for population status assessments, for threat analyses, and to predict the consequences of conservation actions. Although conservation decisions should be informed by science, critical decisions are often made with very little information to support decision-making. Conversely, postponing decisions until better information is available may reduce the benefit of a conservation decision. When empirical data are limited or lacking, expert elicitation can be used to supplement existing data and inform model parameter estimates. The use of rigorous techniques for expert elicitation that account for uncertainty can improve the quality of the expert elicited values and therefore the accuracy of the projection models. One recurring challenge for summarizing expert elicited values is how to aggregate them. Here, we illustrate a process for population status assessment using a combination of expert elicitation and data from the ecological literature. We discuss the importance of considering various aggregation techniques, and illustrate this process using matrix population models for the wood turtle (Glyptemys insculpta) to assist U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision-makers with their Species Status Assessment. We compare estimates of population growth using data from the ecological literature and four alternative aggregation techniques for the expert-elicited values. The estimate of population growth rate based on estimates from the literature (λmean = 0.952, 95% CI: 0.87-1.01) could not be used to unequivocally reject the hypotheses of a rapidly declining population nor the hypothesis of a stable, or even slightly growing population, whereas our results for the expert-elicited estimates supported the hypothesis that the wood turtle population will decline over time. Our results showed that the aggregation techniques used had an impact on model estimates, suggesting that the choice of techniques should be carefully considered. We discuss the benefits and limitations associated with each method and their relevance to the population status assessment. We note a difference in the temporal scope or inference between the literature-based estimates that provided insights about historical changes, whereas the expert-based estimates were forward looking. Therefore, conducting an expert-elicitation in addition to using parameter estimates from the literature improved our understanding of our species of interest.
Asunto(s)
Tortugas , Animales , Recolección de Datos , IncertidumbreRESUMEN
Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to the risk of failing to meet conservation goals. Conservation planning tends to treat risk as an absolute measure, ignoring the context of the management problem and risk preferences of stakeholders. Application of risk management theory to conservation emphasizes the diversification of a portfolio of assets, with the goal of reducing the impact of system volatility on investment return. We use principles of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which quantifies risk as the variance and correlation among assets, to formalize diversification as an explicit strategy for managing risk in climate-driven reserve design. We extend MPT to specify a framework that evaluates multiple conservation objectives, allows decision makers to balance management benefits and risk when preferences are contested or unknown, and includes additional decision options such as parcel divestment when evaluating candidate reserve designs. We apply an efficient search algorithm that optimizes portfolio design for large conservation problems and a game theoretic approach to evaluate portfolio trade-offs that satisfy decision makers with divergent benefit and risk tolerances, or when a single decision maker cannot resolve their own preferences. Evaluating several risk profiles for a case study in South Carolina, our results suggest that a reserve design may be somewhat robust to differences in risk attitude but that budgets will likely be important determinants of conservation planning strategies, particularly when divestment is considered a viable alternative. We identify a possible fiscal threshold where adequate resources allow protecting a sufficiently diverse portfolio of habitats such that the risk of failing to achieve conservation objectives is considerably lower. For a range of sea-level rise projections, conversion of habitat to open water (14-180%) and wetland loss (1-7%) are unable to be compensated under the current protected network. In contrast, optimal reserve design outcomes are predicted to ameliorate expected losses relative to current and future habitat protected under the existing conservation estate.
Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Ecosistema , Biodiversidad , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , IncertidumbreRESUMEN
This article aims to understand decision making under uncertainty and risk, with a case study on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Decision makers need to consider imperfect information on the cost and effectiveness of advanced nitrogen-removing on-site wastewater treatment systems as options to mitigate water quality degradation. Research included modeling nitrogen load reduction to impaired coastal waters from seven treatment system technologies and eliciting expert knowledge on their costs. Predictions of nitrogen load removal and cost for each technology incorporated variation in effectiveness and uncertainty in household water use, costs, and expert confidence in costs. The predictions were evaluated using the Pareto efficiency concept to reveal tradeoffs between cost and effectiveness. The stochastic dominance index was used to identify preferred technologies for risk-averse decision making, assuming no further learning is possible. Lastly, the predictions were combined into a cost-effectiveness metric to estimate the expected payoff of implementing the best treatment system in the face of uncertainty and the expected payoff of learning which treatment systems are most cost-effective over time. The expected value of perfect information was calculated as the difference between the expected payoffs. Three technologies revealed Pareto efficient tradeoffs between cost and effectiveness, whereas one technology was the preferred risk-averse option in the absence of future learning. There was a high expected value of perfect information, which could motivate adaptive management on Cape Cod. This research demonstrated decision analysis methods to guide future research and decision making toward meeting water quality objectives and reducing uncertainty.
Asunto(s)
Toma de Decisiones , Nitrógeno , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Massachusetts , IncertidumbreRESUMEN
The demography of many European waterbirds is not well understood because most countries have conducted little monitoring and assessment, and coordination among countries on waterbird management has little precedent. Yet intergovernmental treaties now mandate the use of sustainable, adaptive harvest strategies, whose development is challenged by a paucity of demographic information. In this study, we explore how a combination of allometric relationships, fragmentary monitoring and research information, and expert judgment can be used to estimate the parameters of a theta-logistic population model, which in turn can be used in a Markov decision process to derive optimal harvesting strategies. We show how to account for considerable parametric uncertainty, as well as for different management objectives. We illustrate our methodology with a poorly understood population of Taiga Bean Geese (Anser fabalis fabalis), which is a popular game bird in Fennoscandia. Our results for Taiga Bean Geese suggest that they may have demographic rates similar to other, well-studied species of geese, and our model-based predictions of population size are consistent with the limited monitoring information available. Importantly, we found that by using a Markov decision process, a simple scalar population model may be sufficient to guide harvest management of this species, even if its demography is age structured. Finally, we demonstrated how two different management objectives can lead to very different optimal harvesting strategies, and how conflicting objectives may be traded off with each other. This approach will have broad application for European waterbirds by providing preliminary estimates of key demographic parameters, by providing insights into the monitoring and research activities needed to corroborate those estimates, and by producing harvest management strategies that are optimal with respect to the managers' objectives, options, and available demographic information.
Asunto(s)
Gansos , Modelos Biológicos , Animales , Europa (Continente) , Cadenas de Markov , Dinámica PoblacionalRESUMEN
The R package popharvest was designed to help assess the sustainability of offtake in birds when only limited demographic information is available. In this article, we describe some basics of harvest theory and then discuss several considerations when using the different approaches in popharvest to assess whether observed harvests are unsustainable. Throughout, we emphasize the importance of distinguishing between the scientific and policy aspects of managing offtake. The principal product of popharvest is a sustainable harvest index (SHI), which can indicate whether the harvest is unsustainable but not the converse. SHI is estimated based on a simple, scalar model of logistic population growth, whose parameters may be estimated using limited knowledge of demography. Uncertainty in demography leads to a distribution of SHI values and it is the purview of the decision-maker to determine what amounts to an acceptable risk when failing to reject the null hypothesis of sustainability. The attitude toward risk, in turn, will likely depend on the decision-maker's objective(s) in managing offtake. The management objective as specified in popharvest is a social construct, informed by biology, but ultimately it is an expression of social values that usually vary among stakeholders. We therefore suggest that any standardization of criteria for management objectives in popharvest will necessarily be subjective and, thus, hard to defend in diverse decision-making situations. Because of its ease of use, diverse functionalities, and a minimal requirement of demographic information, we expect the use of popharvest to become widespread. Nonetheless, we suggest that while popharvest provides a useful platform for rapid assessments of sustainability, it cannot substitute for sufficient expertise and experience in harvest theory and management.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Patients with diabetes at risk of food insecurity face cost barriers to healthy eating and, as a result, poor health outcomes. Population health management strategies are needed to improve food security in real-world health system settings. We seek to test the effect of a prescription produce program, 'Eat Well' on cardiometabolic health and healthcare utilization. We will also assess the implementation of an automated, affirmative outreach strategy. METHODS: We will recruit approximately 2400 patients from an integrated academic health system in the southeastern United States as part of a two-arm parallel hybrid type 1 pragmatic randomized controlled trial. Patients with diabetes, at risk for food insecurity, and a recent hemoglobin A1c reading will be eligible to participate. The intervention arm receives, 'Eat Well', which provides a debit card with $80 (added monthly) for 12â¯months valid for fresh, frozen, or canned fruits and vegetables across grocery retailers. The control arm does not. Both arms receive educational resources with diabetes nutrition and self-management materials, and information on existing care management resources. Using an intent-to-treat analysis, primary outcomes include hemoglobin A1C levels and emergency department visits in the 12â¯months following enrollment. Reach and fidelity data will be collected to assess implementation. DISCUSSION: Addressing food insecurity, particularly among those at heightened cardiometabolic risk, is critical to equitable and effective population health management. Pragmatic trials provide important insights into the effectiveness and implementation of 'Eat Well' and approaches like it in real-world settings. REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05896644; Clinical Trial Registration Date: 2023-06-09.
RESUMEN
The wavelength-by-wavelength resolved photoreactivity of two photo-caged carboxylic acids, i. e. 7-(diethylamino)-coumarin- and 3-perylene-modified substrates, is investigated via photochemical action plots. The observed wavelength-dependent reactivity of the chromophores is contrasted with their absorption profile. The photochemical action plots reveal a remarkable mismatch between the maximum reactivity and the absorbance. Through the action plot data, the study is able to uncover photochemical reactivity maxima at longer and shorter wavelengths, where the molar absorptivity of the chromophores is strongly reduced. Finally, the laser experiments are translated to light emitting diode (LED) irradiation and show efficient visible-light-induced release in a near fully wavelength-orthogonal, sequence-independent fashion (λLED1 = 405 nm, λLED2 = 505 nm) with both chromophores in the same reaction solution. The herein pioneered wavelength orthogonal release systems open an avenue for releasing two different molecular cargos with visible light in a fully orthogonal fashion.
RESUMEN
Understanding the intricate relationship between molecular architecture and function underpins most challenges at the forefront of chemical innovation. Bond-forming reactions are particularly influenced by the topology of a chemical structure, both on small molecule scale and in larger macromolecular frameworks. Herein, we elucidate the impact that molecular architecture has on the photo-induced cyclisations of a series of monodisperse macromolecules with defined spacers between photodimerisable moieties, and examine the relationship between propensity for intramolecular cyclisation and intermolecular network formation. We demonstrate a goldilocks zone of maximum reactivity between the sterically hindered and entropically limited regimes with a quantum yield of intramolecular cyclisation that is nearly an order of magnitude higher than the lowest value. As a result of the molecular design of trifunctional macromolecules, their quantum yields can be deconvoluted into the formation of two different cyclic isomers, as rationalised with molecular dynamics simulations. Critically, we visualise our solution-based studies with light-based additive manufacturing. We formulate four photoresists for microprinting, revealing that the precise positioning of functional groups is critical for resist performance, with lower intramolecular quantum yields leading to higher-quality printing in most cases.
RESUMEN
To determine whether a clinical decision support system can favorably impact the delivery of emergency department and hospital services. Randomized clinical trial of three clinical decision support delivery modalities: email messages to care managers (email), printed reports to clinic administrators (report) and letters to patients (letter) conducted among 20,180 Medicaid beneficiaries in Durham County, North Carolina with follow-up through 9 months. Patients in the email group had fewer low-severity emergency department encounters vs. controls (8.1 vs. 10.6/100 enrollees, p < 0.001) with no increase in outpatient encounters or medical costs. Patients in the letter group had more outpatient encounters and greater outpatient and total medical costs. There were no treatment-related differences for patients in the reports group. Among patients <18 years, those in the email group had fewer low severity (7.6 vs. 10.6/100 enrollees, p < 0.001) and total emergency department encounters (18.3 vs. 23.5/100 enrollees, p < 0.001), and lower emergency department ($63 vs. $89, p = 0.002) and total medical costs ($1,736 vs. $2,207, p = 0.009). Patients who were ≥18 years in the letter group had greater outpatient medical costs. There were no intervention-related differences in patient-reported assessments of quality of life and medical care received. The effectiveness of clinical decision support messaging depended upon the delivery modality and patient age. Health IT interventions must be carefully evaluated to ensure that the resultant outcomes are aligned with expectations as interventions can have differing effects on clinical and economic outcomes.
Asunto(s)
Servicios de Salud Comunitaria/organización & administración , Servicios de Salud Comunitaria/estadística & datos numéricos , Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas/organización & administración , Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicaid/estadística & datos numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Asma/terapia , Niño , Preescolar , Diabetes Mellitus/terapia , Correo Electrónico , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , North Carolina , Evaluación de Procesos y Resultados en Atención de Salud , Servicios Postales , Estados Unidos , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Although evidence-based pharmacotherapies are a principal component of patient care, 30-50% of patients do not take their medications as prescribed. We conducted a randomized trial of two clinical decision support (CDS) interventions in 2219 patients: patient adherence reports to providers (n=744), patient adherence reports to providers + email notices to care managers (n=736), and controls (739). At 18-month follow-up, there were no treatment-related differences in patient medication adherence (overall, by medication class, and by medical condition). There also were no treatment-related differences in patient clinical and economic outcomes. Thus, while this study's CDS information interventions were successfully delivered to providers and care managers, and were effective in identifying medication adherence deficits and in increasing care manager responses to medication adherences issues, these interventions were not able to alter patient medication behavior.
Asunto(s)
Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas , Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Quimioterapia/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicina Basada en la Evidencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Cumplimiento de la Medicación/estadística & datos numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Glucose homeostasis can be improved after bariatric surgery, which alters bile flow and stimulates gut hormone secretion, particularly FGF15/19. FGFR1 expression in AGRP-expressing cells is required for bile acids' ability to improve glucose control. We show that the mouse Agrp gene has 3 promoter/enhancer regions that direct transcription of each of their own AGRP transcripts. One of these Agrp promoters/enhancers, Agrp-B, is regulated by bile acids. We generated an Agrp-B knockin FLP/knockout allele. AGRP-B-expressing cells are found in endocrine cells of the pars tuberalis and coexpress diacylglycerol lipase B - an endocannabinoid biosynthetic enzyme - distinct from pars tuberalis thyrotropes. AGRP-B expression is also found in the folliculostellate cells of the pituitary's anterior lobe. Mice without AGRP-B were protected from glucose intolerance induced by high-fat feeding but not from excess weight gain. Chemogenetic inhibition of AGRP-B cells improved glucose tolerance by enhancing glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. Inhibition of the AGRP-B cells also caused weight loss. The improved glucose tolerance and reduced body weight persisted up to 6 weeks after cessation of the DREADD-mediated inhibition, suggesting the presence of a biological switch for glucose homeostasis that is regulated by long-term stability of food availability.
Asunto(s)
Hipotálamo , Neuronas , Ratones , Animales , Proteína Relacionada con Agouti/metabolismo , Hipotálamo/metabolismo , Neuronas/metabolismo , Homeostasis , Glucosa/metabolismo , Ácidos y Sales Biliares/metabolismo , Ingestión de AlimentosRESUMEN
Many Arctic-breeding animals are at risk from local extirpation associated with habitat constriction and alterations in phenology in their Arctic environment as a result of rapid global warming.1 Migratory species face additional increasing anthropogenic pressures along their migratory routes such as habitat destruction, droughts, creation of barriers, and overexploitation.2,3 Such species can only persist if they adjust their migration, timing of breeding, and range.4 Here, we document both the abrupt (â¼10 years) formation of a new migration route and a disjunct breeding population of the pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) on Novaya Zemlya, Russia, almost 1,000 km away from the original breeding grounds in Svalbard. The population has grown to 3,000-4,000 birds, explained by intrinsic growth and continued immigration from the original route. The colonization was enabled by recent warming on Novaya Zemlya. We propose that social behavior of geese, resulting in cultural transmission of migration behavior among conspecifics as well as in mixed-species flocks, is key to this fast development and acts as a mechanism enabling ecological rescue in a rapidly changing world.
Asunto(s)
Migración Animal , Gansos , Animales , Estaciones del Año , Svalbard , Calentamiento Global , Regiones ÁrticasRESUMEN
Importance: Studies elucidating determinants of residential neighborhood-level health inequities are needed. Objective: To quantify associations of structural racism indicators with neighborhood prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), diabetes, and hypertension. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used public data (2012-2018) and deidentified electronic health records (2017-2018) to describe the burden of structural racism and the prevalence of CKD, diabetes, and hypertension in 150 residential neighborhoods in Durham County, North Carolina, from US census block groups and quantified their associations using bayesian models accounting for spatial correlations and residents' age. Data were analyzed from January 2021 to May 2023. Exposures: Global (neighborhood percentage of White residents, economic-racial segregation, and area deprivation) and discrete (neighborhood child care centers, bus stops, tree cover, reported violent crime, impervious areas, evictions, election participation, income, poverty, education, unemployment, health insurance coverage, and police shootings) indicators of structural racism. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes of interest were neighborhood prevalence of CKD, diabetes, and hypertension. Results: A total of 150 neighborhoods with a median (IQR) of 1708 (1109-2489) residents; median (IQR) of 2% (0%-6%) Asian residents, 30% (16%-56%) Black residents, 10% (4%-20%) Hispanic or Latino residents, 0% (0%-1%) Indigenous residents, and 44% (18%-70%) White residents; and median (IQR) residential income of $54â¯531 ($37â¯729.25-$78â¯895.25) were included in analyses. In models evaluating global indicators, greater burden of structural racism was associated with greater prevalence of CKD, diabetes, and hypertension (eg, per 1-SD decrease in neighborhood White population percentage: CKD prevalence ratio [PR], 1.27; 95% highest density interval [HDI], 1.18-1.35; diabetes PR, 1.43; 95% HDI, 1.37-1.52; hypertension PR, 1.19; 95% HDI, 1.14-1.25). Similarly in models evaluating discrete indicators, greater burden of structural racism was associated with greater neighborhood prevalence of CKD, diabetes, and hypertension (eg, per 1-SD increase in reported violent crime: CKD PR, 1.15; 95% HDI, 1.07-1.23; diabetes PR, 1.20; 95% HDI, 1.13-1.28; hypertension PR, 1.08; 95% HDI, 1.02-1.14). Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found several global and discrete structural racism indicators associated with increased prevalence of health conditions in residential neighborhoods. Although inferences from this cross-sectional and ecological study warrant caution, they may help guide the development of future community health interventions.
Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus , Hipertensión , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica , Humanos , Estudios Transversales , Teorema de Bayes , Prevalencia , Racismo Sistemático , Enfermedad Crónica , Hipertensión/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The take of Nearctic songbirds for the caged-bird trade is an important cultural and economic activity in Mexico, but its sustainability has been questioned. We relied on the theta-logistic population model to explore options for setting allowable levels of take for 11 species of passerines that were subject to legal take in Mexico in 2010. Because estimates of population size necessary for making-periodic adjustments to levels of take are not routinely available, we examined the conditions under which a constant level of take might contribute to population depletion (i.e., a population below its level of maximum net productivity). The chance of depleting a population is highest when levels of take are based on population sizes that happen to be much lower or higher than the level of maximum net productivity, when environmental variation is relatively high and serially correlated, and when the interval between estimation of population size is relatively long (> or = 5 years). To estimate demographic rates of songbirds involved in the Mexican trade we relied on published information and allometric relationships to develop probability distributions for key rates, and then sampled from those distributions to characterize the uncertainty in potential levels of take. Estimates of the intrinsic rate of growth (r) were highly variable, but median estimates were consistent with those expected for relatively short-lived, highly fecund species. Allowing for the possibility of nonlinear density dependence generally resulted in allowable levels of take that were lower than would have been the case under an assumption of linearity. Levels of take authorized by the Mexican government in 2010 for the 11 species we examined were small in comparison to relatively conservative allowable levels of take (i.e., those intended to achieve 50% of maximum sustainable yield). However, the actual levels of take in Mexico are unknown and almost certainly exceed the authorized take. Also, the take of Nearctic songbirds in other Latin American and Caribbean countries ultimately must be considered in assessing population-level impacts.
Asunto(s)
Comercio , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/métodos , Pájaros Cantores/fisiología , Animales , Monitoreo del Ambiente , México , Modelos Biológicos , Dinámica PoblacionalRESUMEN
Most European goose populations have increased exponentially, and this has increasingly brought them into conflict with human activities. To manage this conflict, we used multi-criteria decision analysis to help set population targets for a super-abundant population of greylag geese (Anser anser). We relied on expert elicitation to assess the consequences of varying goose abundance on nine ecological, economic, and societal objectives. Representatives from national governments and from non-governmental organizations then weighted the objectives based on their perceived relative importance, and we used a consensus-convergence model to reach stakeholder agreement on the tradeoffs among objectives. The preferred population targets for two management units represent about a 20% reduction from current abundances, which from a management perspective would require considerable effort above and beyond current population-control measures. We believe that multi-criteria decision analysis can provide a systematic and transparent framework for building consensus among diverse stakeholders in a wide array of human-wildlife conflicts.
Asunto(s)
Animales Salvajes , Gansos , Animales , Humanos , Densidad de Población , Factores SocioeconómicosRESUMEN
Removal sampling data are the primary source of monitoring information for many populations (e.g., invasive species, fisheries). Population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection are common sources of variation in monitoring data and are key parameters for informing management. We developed two open robust-design removal models for simultaneously modeling population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection: a random walk linear trend model (estimable without ancillary information), and a 2-age class informed population model (InfoPM, closely related to integrated population models) that incorporated prior information for age-structured vital rates and relative juvenile availability. We applied both models to multiyear, removal trapping time-series of a large invasive lizard (Argentine black and white tegu, Salvator merianae) in three management areas of South Florida to evaluate the effectiveness of management programs. Although estimates of the two models were similar, the InfoPMs generally returned more precise estimates, partitioned dynamics into births, deaths, net migration, and provided a decision support tool to predict population dynamics under different effort scenarios while accounting for uncertainty. Trends in tegu superpopulation abundance estimates were increasing in two management areas despite generally high removal rates. However, tegu abundance appeared to decline in the Core management area, where trapping density was the highest and immigration the lowest. Finally, comparing abundance predictions of no-removal scenarios to those estimated in each management area suggested significant population reductions due to management. These results suggest that local tegu population control via systematic trapping may be feasible with high enough trap density and limited immigration; and highlights the value of these trapping programs. We provided the first estimates of tegu abundance, capture probabilities, and population dynamics, which is critical for effective management. Furthermore, our models are applicable to a wide range of monitoring programs (e.g., carcass recovery or removal point-counts).
RESUMEN
Simplified electrochemical atom transfer radical polymerization (seATRP) using CuII-N-propyl pyridineimine complexes (CuII(NPPI)2) is reported for the first time. In aqueous solution, using oligo(ethylene glycol) methyl ether methacrylate (OEGMA), standard electrolysis conditions yield POEGMA with good control over molecular weight distribution (D m < 1.35). Interestingly, the polymerizations are not under complete electrochemical control, as monomer conversion continues when electrolysis is halted. Alternatively, it is shown that the extent and rate of polymerization depends upon an initial period of electrolysis. Thus, it is proposed that seATRP using CuII(NPPI)2 follows an electrochemically-triggered, rather than electrochemically mediated, ATRP mechanism, which distinguishes them from other CuIIL complexes that have been previously reported in the literature.
RESUMEN
A formal framework for the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests was adopted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1995. The process admits competing models of waterfowl population dynamics and harvest impacts, and relies on model averaging to compute optimal strategies for regulating harvest. Model weights, reflecting the relative ability of the alternative models to predict changes in population size, are used in the model averaging and are updated each year based on a comparison of model predictions and observations of population size. Since its inception the adaptive harvest program has focused principally on mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), which constitute a large portion of the U.S. waterfowl harvest. Four competing models, derived from a combination of two survival and two reproductive hypotheses, were originally assigned equal weights. In the last year of available information (2007), model weights favored the weakly density-dependent reproductive hypothesis over the strongly density-dependent one, and the additive mortality hypothesis over the compensatory one. The change in model weights led to a more conservative harvesting policy than what was in effect in the early years of the program. Adaptive harvest management has been successful in many ways, but nonetheless has exposed the difficulties in defining management objectives, in predicting and regulating harvests, and in coping with the tradeoffs inherent in managing multiple waterfowl stocks exposed to a common harvest. The key challenge now facing managers is whether adaptive harvest management as an institution can be sufficiently adaptive, and whether the knowledge and experience gained from the process can be reflected in higher-level policy decisions.