Regional policy models for forest biodiversity analysis: lessons from coastal Oregon.

The crisis in the early 1990s over conservation of biodiversity in the forests of the Pacific Northwest caused an upheaval in forest policies for public and private landowners. These events led to the development of the Coastal Landscape Assessment and Modeling Study (CLAMS) for the Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon, a province containing over two million hectares of forest with a complex mixture of public and private ownership. Over a decade, CLAMS scientists developed regional data bases and tools to enable assessments of the implications of current policies for biodiversity and have begun using these data and tools to test ideas for solving policy problems. We summarize here four main lessons from our work: (1) Regional ecosystem perspectives, while rewarding, are difficult to achieve. Helping policy makers and the public understand biodiversity policies for an entire province can assist in developing more reasoned policies. However, this result is difficult to achieve because needed scientific building blocks generally do not exist, few policy institutions address regional cross-ownership issues, people can find it difficult to take a regional view, and the appropriate region for analysis changes with the policy problem. (2) Interest in environmental policy analysis may come as much from a pursuit of power as a pursuit of understanding. Biodiversity policy analyses are often viewed as weapons in an ongoing political battle. Also, results that might destabilize existing policies generally will not be well received by those in power. (3) The relationship of regional analyses to civic processes remains challenging and unsettled. Communication between citizens and scientists takes real effort. Also, collaborative processes both inspire and constrain regional policy analysis, and scientific work often proceeds at a different pace than these processes. In the end, CLAMS's most important effect on the civic dialogue may be to change how people think about the Coast Range. (4) An important role exists for anticipatory assessments done independently by scientists. Independent review will be especially important as policy analyses shift to management of nonfederal forests. Our future efforts in CLAMS will focus on evaluating ideas for fundamental changes in forest management.

Cumulative ecological and socioeconomic effects of forest policies in coastal Oregon.

Forest biodiversity policies in multi-ownership landscapes are typically developed in an uncoordinated fashion with little consideration of their interactions or possible unintended cumulative effects. We conducted an assessment of some of the ecological and socioeconomic effects of recently enacted forest management policies in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. This mountainous area of conifer and hardwood forests includes a mosaic of landowners with a wide range of goals, from wilderness protection to high-yield timber production. We projected forest changes over 100 years in response to logging and development using models that integrate land use change and forest stand and landscape processes. We then assessed responses to those management activities using GIS models of stand structure and composition, landscape structure, habitat models for focal terrestrial and aquatic species, timber production, employment, and willingness to pay for biodiversity protection. Many of the potential outcomes of recently enacted policies are consistent with intended goals. For example, we project the area of structurally diverse older conifer forest and habitat for late successional wildlife species to strongly increase. 'Other outcomes might not be consistent with current policies: for example, hardwoods and vegetation diversity strongly decline within and across owners. Some elements of biodiversity, including streams with high potential habitat for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and sites of potential oak woodland, occur predominately outside federal lands and thus were not affected by the strongest biodiversity policies. Except for federal lands, biodiversity policies were not generally characterized in sufficient detail to provide clear benchmarks against which to measure the progress or success. We conclude that land management institutions and policies are not well configured to deal effectively with ecological issues that span broad spatial and temporal scales and that alternative policies could be constructed that more effectively provide for a mix of forest values from this region.

Simulating forest structure, timber production, and socioeconomic effects in a multi-owner province.

Protecting biodiversity has become a major goal in managing coastal forests in the Pacific Northwest--an area in which human activities have had a significant influence on landscape change. A complex pattern of public and private forest ownership, combined with new regulations for each owner group, raises questions about how well and how efficiently these policies achieve their biodiversity goals. To develop a deeper understanding of the aggregate effect of forest policies, we simulated forest structures, timber production, and socioeconomic conditions over time for the mixture of private and public lands in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. To make these projections, we recognized both vegetative complexity at the stand level and spatial complexity at the landscape level. We focused on the two major factors influencing landscape change in the forests of the Coast Range: (1) land use, especially development for houses and cities, and (2) forest management, especially clearcutting. Our simulations of current policy suggest major changes in land use on the margins of the Coast Range, a divergence in forest structure among the different owners, an increase in old-growth forests, and a continuing loss of the structural elements associated with diverse young forests. Our simulations also suggest that current harvest levels can be approximately maintained, with the harvest coming almost entirely from private lands. A policy alternative that retained live trees for wildlife would increase remnant structures but at a cost to landowners (5-7% reduction in timber production). Another alternative that precluded thinning of plantations on federal land would significantly reduce the area of very large diameter (>75 cm dbh) conifer forests 100 years into the future

The Northwest Forest Plan: origins, components, implementation experience, and suggestions for change.

In the 1990s the federal forests in the Pacific Northwest underwent the largest shift in management focus since their creation, from providing a sustained yield of timber to conserving biodiversity, with an emphasis on endangered species. Triggered by a legal challenge to the federal protection strategy for the Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), this shift was facilitated by a sequence of science assessments that culminated in the development of the Northwest Forest Plan. The plan, adopted in 1994, called for an extensive system of late-successional and riparian reserves along with some timber harvest on the intervening lands under a set of controls and safeguards. It has proven more successful in stopping actions harmful to conservation of old-growth forests and aquatic systems than in achieving restoration goals and economic and social goals. We make three suggestions that will allow the plan to achieve its goals: (1) recognize that the Northwest Forest Plan has evolved into an integrative conservation strategy, (2) conserve old-growth trees and forests wherever they occur and (3) manage federal forests as dynamic ecosystems.