Tropical cyclone-specific mortality risks and the periods of concern: A multicountry time-series study.

BACKGROUND: More intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected in the future under a warming climate scenario, but little is known about their mortality effect pattern across countries and over decades. We aim to evaluate the TC-specific mortality risks, periods of concern (POC) and characterize the spatiotemporal pattern and exposure-response (ER) relationships on a multicountry scale. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality among the general population were collected from 494 locations in 18 countries or territories during 1980 to 2019. Daily TC exposures were defined when the maximum sustained windspeed associated with a TC was ≥34 knots using a parametric wind field model at a 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. We first estimated the TC-specific mortality risks and POC using an advanced flexible statistical framework of mixed Poisson model, accounting for the population changes, natural variation, seasonal and day of the week effects. Then, a mixed meta-regression model was used to pool the TC-specific mortality risks to estimate the overall and country-specific ER relationships of TC characteristics (windspeed, rainfall, and year) with mortality. Overall, 47.7 million all-cause, 15.5 million cardiovascular, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths and 382 TCs were included in our analyses. An overall average POC of around 20 days was observed for TC-related all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality, with relatively longer POC for the United States of America, Brazil, and Taiwan (>30 days). The TC-specific relative risks (RR) varied substantially, ranging from 1.04 to 1.42, 1.07 to 1.77, and 1.12 to 1.92 among the top 100 TCs with highest RRs for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. At country level, relatively higher TC-related mortality risks were observed in Guatemala, Brazil, and New Zealand for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. We found an overall monotonically increasing and approximately linear ER curve of TC-related maximum sustained windspeed and cumulative rainfall with mortality, with heterogeneous patterns across countries and regions. The TC-related mortality risks were generally decreasing from 1980 to 2019, especially for the Philippines, Taiwan, and the USA, whereas potentially increasing trends in TC-related all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks were observed for Japan. CONCLUSIONS: The TC mortality risks and POC varied greatly across TC events, locations, and countries. To minimize the TC-related health burdens, targeted strategies are particularly needed for different countries and regions, integrating epidemiological evidence on region-specific POC and ER curves that consider across-TC variability.

Associations and attributable burdens in late-life exposure to PM2.5 and its major components and depressive symptoms in middle-aged and older adults: A nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Depression in late life has been associated with reduced quality of life and increased mortality. Whether the chronic fine particular matter (PM2.5) and its components exposure are contributed to the older depression symptoms remains unclear. METHOD: Middle-aged and older adults (>45 years) were selected from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study during the four waves of interviews. The concentrations of PM2.5 and its major constituents were calculated using near real-time data at a spatial resolution of 10 km during the study period. The depressive symptom was evaluated by the Depression Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D)-10 score. The fix-effect model was applied to evaluate the association between PM2.5 and its major constituents with depressive symptoms. Three three-step methods were used to explore the modification role of sleep duration against the depressive symptoms caused by PM2.5 exposure. RESULTS: In our study, a total of 52,683 observations of 16,681 middle-aged and older adults were assessed. Each interquartile range (IQR) level of PM2.5 concentration exposure was longitudinally associated with a 2.6 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.3 %, 4.0 %) increase in the depression CES-D-10 score. Regarding the major components of PM2.5, OM, NO3-, and NH4+ showed the leading toxicity effects, which could increase the depression CES-D-10 score by 2.2 % (95 %CI: 1.0 %, 3.4 %), 2.2 % (0.6 %, 3.9 %), and 2.0 % (95 %CI: 0.6 %, 3.4 %) correspondingly. Besides, males were more susceptible to the worse depressive symptoms caused by PM2.5 and its major components exposure than female subpopulations. Shortened sleep duration might be the mediator of PM2.5-associated depressive symptoms. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that long-term exposure to PM2.5 and its major components were associated with an increased risk for depressive symptoms in middle-aged and older adults. Reducing the leading components of PM2.5 may cost-effectively alleviate the disease burden of depression and promote healthy longevity in heavy pollutant countries.

Identifying the causal effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and ground surface ozone on individual medical costs in China-evidence from a representative longitudinal nationwide cohort.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on whether PM2.5 and ground surface ozone have consistent effects on increased individual medical costs, and there is a lack of evidence on causality in developing countries. METHODS: This study utilized balanced panel data from 2014, 2016, and 2018 waves of the Chinese Family Panel Study. The Tobit model was developed within a counterfactual causal inference framework, combined with a correlated random effects and control function approach (Tobit-CRE-CF), to explore the causal relationship between long-term exposure to air pollution and medical costs. We also explored whether different air pollutants exhibit comparable effects. RESULTS: This study encompassed 8928 participants and assessed various benchmark models, highlighting the potential biases from failing to account for air pollution endogeneity or overlooking respondents without medical costs. Using the Tobit-CRE-CF model, significant effects of air pollutants on increased individual medical costs were identified. Specifically, margin effects for PM2.5 and ground-level ozone signifying that a unit increase in PM2.5 and ground-level ozone results in increased total medical costs of 199.144 and 75.145 RMB for individuals who incurred fees in the previous year, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results imply that long-term exposure to air pollutants contributes to increased medical costs for individuals, offering valuable insights for policymakers aiming to mitigate air pollution's consequences.

Causal effects of maternal exposure to PM2.5 during pregnancy on depression symptoms in adolescence: Identifying vulnerable windows and subpopulations in a national cohort study.

Few studies have examined the causal relationship between chronic exposure to air pollutants during pregnancy and depression in adolescent offspring. In addition, it has not been investigated whether exposure is most harmful to adolescents in certain populations and at certain stages of pregnancy. A total of 1975 adolescents from 1632 families from the China Family Panel Study, a representative national longitudinal cohort, were included in this study. We used high-resolution satellite retrieval data to assess the PM2.5 exposure of mothers during pregnancy. Specifically, we employed a two-stage instrumental variable model (IV-2SLS) within the counterfactual causal inference framework, and selected and validated appropriate instruments, thereby mitigating potentially biased results arising from bi-direction between dependent and independent variables. This approach allowed us to explore the causal relationship between maternal PM2.5 exposure during pregnancy and adolescent depression symptoms. The endogeneity of air pollution during pregnancy and the need for a causal model were suggested by the results of the model comparisons. Using the IV-2SLS model, we found that maternal exposure to PM2.5 during pregnancy exacerbates depressive symptoms in the offspring during adolescence (ß = 0.2, 95% CI: 0.05-0.34). We also found that exposure during the first trimester may cause greater harm. Adolescents with low household income, being male, irregular exercise habits, living in rural areas, and having mothers with poorer mental status may be more vulnerable. The findings suggest that maternal exposure to PM2.5 during pregnancy may have a negative impact on the depression symptoms of offspring in adolescence and that more attention should be paid to vulnerable populations and the window of vulnerability.

Causal effects of air pollution on mental health among Adults--An exploration of susceptible populations and the role of physical activity based on a longitudinal nationwide cohort in China.

Long-term exposure to air pollutants is likely to be associated with mental disorders, but relevant studies remain limited and inconsistent, and evidence to assess causality is particularly lacking, especially in developing countries. In addition, there are few studies on the role of physical activity in this relationship. We investigated the causal relationship between air pollutant exposure and mental health among Chinese adults and whether physical activity could play a positive role in this relationship. Using the balanced panel data for 2014 and 2016 from the China Family Panel Study, a representative Chinese national cohort study, we selected and validated appropriate instrumental variable to explore the causal relationship between air pollution and mental health and explored the moderating effect of physical activity using an instrumental variable fixed effects model (IVFE) in a counterfactual causal inference framework. PM2.5 and ground surface ozone were selected as proxies for different types of air pollutants and extended the interpretability by studying them for populations with different characteristics. A total of 21,944 participants were included in this study. In the IVFE model, we found that both PM2.5 and ground surface ozone significantly negatively affected mental health, and that habitual physical activity counteracted this negative effect regardless of different types of air pollution. We also found that the findings held for adults with different characteristics. The findings suggest that habitual physical activity may offset the deterioration of mental health in adults in developing countries due to air pollution, regardless of age, gender, income, and the presence of chronic diseases.

Assessing the causal effect of long-term exposure to air pollution on cognitive decline in middle-aged and older adults - Empirical evidence from a nationwide longitudinal cohort.

Air pollution remains a risk factor for the global burden of disease. Middle-aged and older people are more susceptible to air pollution because of their declining physical function and are more likely to develop diseases from long-term air pollution exposure. Studies of the effects of air pollution on cognitive function in middle-aged and older adults have been inconsistent. More representative and definitive evidence is needed. This study analysed data from the Chinese Family Panel Study, an ongoing nationwide prospective cohort study, collected in waves 2014, 2016 and 2018. Rigorously tested instrument was selected for analysis and participants' PM2.5 and instrument exposures were assessed using high-precision satellite data. The causal relationship between long-term exposure to air pollution and poor cognitive function in middle-aged and older adults was investigated using the Correlated Random Effects Control Function (CRE-CF) method within a quasi-experimental framework. This study included a total of 7042 participants aged 45 years or older. A comparison of CRE-CF with other models (OLS model, ordered probit model, and ordered probit-CRE model) demonstrated the necessity of using CRE-CF given the endogeneity of air pollution. The credibility and validity of the instrumental variable were verified. In the CRE-CF model, long-term exposure to PM2.5 was found to accelerate cognitive decline in middle-aged and older adults (coefficients of -0.159, -0.336 and -0.244 for the total cognitive, verbal and mathematical scores, respectively). Taken together, these results suggest that chronic exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with cognitive decline in middle-aged and older adults, which highlights the need for appropriate protective policies.

Serial electrocardiogram recordings revealed a high prevalence of QT interval prolongation in patients with tuberculosis receiving fluoroquinolones.

BACKGROUND: Fluoroquinolones, crucial components of treatment regimens for drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB), are associated with QT interval prolongation and risks of fatal cardiac arrhythmias. However, few studies have explored dynamic changes in the QT interval in patients receiving QT-prolonging agents. METHODS: This prospective cohort study recruited hospitalized patients with TB who received fluoroquinolones. The study investigated the variability of the QT interval by using serial electrocardiograms (ECGs) recorded four times daily. This study analyzed the accuracy of intermittent and single-lead ECG monitoring in detecting QT interval prolongation. RESULTS: This study included 32 patients. The mean age was 68.6 ± 13.2 years. The results revealed mild-to-moderate and severe QT interval prolongation in 13 (41%) and 5 (16%) patients, respectively. The incremental yields in sensitivity of one to four daily ECG recordings were 61.0%, 26.1%, 5.6%, and 7.3% in detecting mild-to-moderate QT interval prolongation, and 66.7%, 20.0%, 6.7%, and 6.7% in detecting severe QT interval prolongation. The sensitivity levels of lead II and V5 ECGs in detecting mild-to-moderate and severe QT interval prolongation exceeded 80%, and their specificity levels exceeded 95%. CONCLUSION: This study revealed a high prevalence of QT interval prolongation in older patients with TB who receive fluoroquinolones, particularly those with multiple cardiovascular risk factors. Sparsely intermittent ECG monitoring, the prevailing strategy in active drug safety monitoring programs, is inadequate owing to multifactorial and circadian QT interval variability. Additional studies performing serial ECG monitoring are warranted to enhance the understanding of dynamic QT interval changes in patients receiving QT-prolonging anti-TB agents.

Utilization of the evidence from studies with no events in meta-analyses of adverse events: an empirical investigation.

BACKGROUNDS: Zero-events studies frequently occur in systematic reviews of adverse events, which consist of an important source of evidence. We aimed to examine how evidence of zero-events studies was utilized in the meta-analyses of systematic reviews of adverse events. METHODS: We conducted a survey of systematic reviews published in two periods: January 1, 2015, to January 1, 2020, and January 1, 2008, to April 25, 2011. Databases were searched for systematic reviews that conducted at least one meta-analysis of any healthcare intervention and used adverse events as the exclusive outcome. An adverse event was defined as any untoward medical occurrence in a patient or subject in healthcare practice. We summarized the frequency of occurrence of zero-events studies in eligible systematic reviews and how these studies were dealt with in the meta-analyses of these systematic reviews. RESULTS: We included 640 eligible systematic reviews. There were 406 (63.45%) systematic reviews involving zero-events studies in their meta-analyses, among which 389 (95.11%) involved single-arm-zero-events studies and 223 (54.93%) involved double-arm-zero-events studies. The majority (98.71%) of these systematic reviews incorporated single-arm-zero-events studies into the meta-analyses. On the other hand, the majority (76.23%) of them excluded double-arm-zero-events studies from the meta-analyses, of which the majority (87.06%) did not discuss the potential impact of excluding such studies. Systematic reviews published at present (2015-2020) tended to incorporate zero-events studies in meta-analyses than those published in the past (2008-2011), but the difference was not significant (proportion difference=-0.09, 95% CI -0.21 to 0.03, p = 0.12). CONCLUSION: Systematic review authors routinely treated studies with zero-events in both arms as "non-informative" carriers and excluded them from their reviews. Whether studies with no events are "informative" or not largely depends on the methods and assumptions applied, thus sensitivity analyses using different methods should be considered in future meta-analyses.

Methodological quality for systematic reviews of adverse events with surgical interventions: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of systematic reviews assessed the safety of surgical interventions over time. How well these systematic reviews were designed and conducted determines the reliability of evidence. In this study, we aimed to assess the methodological quality of systematic reviews on the safety of surgical interventions. METHODS: We searched PubMed for systematic reviews of surgical interventions with safety as the exclusive outcome from 1st-Jan, 2015 to 1st-Jan, 2020. The methodological quality of eligible systematic reviews was evaluated according to the AMSTAR 2.0 instrument. The primary outcomes were the number of methodological weaknesses and the global methodological quality. The proportion of each methodological weakness among eligible systematic reviews was compared by three pre-defined stratification variables. The absolute difference of the proportion (PD) was used as the effect estimator, with the two-tailed z-test for the significance. RESULTS: We identified 127 systematic reviews from 18,636 records. None (n = 0, 0.00%) of them could be rated as "high" in terms of the global methodological quality; in contrast, they were either rated as "low" (n = 18, 14.17%) or as "critically low" (n = 109, 85.83%). The median number of methodological weaknesses of these systematic reviews was 8 (interquartile range, IQR: 6 to 9), in which 4 (IQR: 2 to 4) were critical weaknesses. Systematic reviews that used any reporting guideline (e.g., domain 13, PD = -0.22, 95% CI: - 0.39, - 0.06; p = 0.01) and developed a protocol in advance (e.g., domain 6, PD = -0.20, 95% CI: - 0.39, - 0.01; p = 0.04) were less likely to have methodological weakness in some domains but not for the rest (e.g., domain 8, PD = 0.04, 95% CI: - 0.14, 0.21; p = 0.68; with protocol vs. without). CONCLUSIONS: The methodological quality of current systematic reviews of adverse events with surgical interventions was poor. Further efforts, for example, encouraging researchers to develop a protocol in advance, are needed to enhance the methodological quality of these systematic reviews.

Laplace approximation, penalized quasi-likelihood, and adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature for generalized linear mixed models: towards meta-analysis of binary outcome with sparse data.

BACKGROUND: In meta-analyses of a binary outcome, double zero events in some studies cause a critical methodology problem. The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) has been proposed as a valid statistical tool for pooling such data. Three parameter estimation methods, including the Laplace approximation (LA), penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) and adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature (AGHQ) were frequently used in the GLMM. However, the performance of GLMM via these estimation methods is unclear in meta-analysis with zero events. METHODS: A simulation study was conducted to compare the performance. We fitted five random-effects GLMMs and estimated the results through the LA, PQL and AGHQ methods, respectively. Each scenario conducted 20,000 simulation iterations. The data from Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were collected to form the simulation settings. The estimation methods were compared in terms of the convergence rate, bias, mean square error, and coverage probability. RESULTS: Our results suggested that when the total events were insufficient in either of the arms, the GLMMs did not show good point estimation to pool studies of rare events. The AGHQ method did not show better properties than the LA estimation in terms of convergence rate, bias, coverage, and possibility to produce very large odds ratios. In addition, although the PQL had some advantages, it was not the preferred option due to its low convergence rate in some situations, and the suboptimal point and variance estimation compared to the LA. CONCLUSION: The GLMM is an alternative for meta-analysis of rare events and is especially useful in the presence of zero-events studies, while at least 10 total events in both arms is recommended when employing GLMM for meta-analysis. The penalized quasi-likelihood and adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature are not superior to the Laplace approximation for rare events and thus they are not recommended.

Female oncofertility attitude and knowledge: a survey of reproductive health professionals in Shanghai, China.

AIM: To evaluate the female oncofertility attitude and knowledge of reproductive health professionals in China. METHODS: An online survey was distributed to reproductive health professionals in Shanghai, China. RESULTS: Female professionals were more likely to consider that cancer patients would want to preserve their fertility. Participants with higher educational background tended to have a more positive attitude toward oncofertility. The majority of the participants (71.0%) obtained a fair or low level of oncofertility knowledge, and only 25.3% of them received scores at the 'good knowledge' level. CONCLUSION: There are significant gaps in the current oncofertility knowledge among reproductive health professionals in China, suggesting an urgent, unmet need for establishing an interdisciplinary fertility preservation training and service system.

The association of adverse birth outcomes with flood exposure before and during pregnancy in Australia: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to floods might increase the risks of adverse birth outcomes. However, the current evidence is scarce, inconsistent, and has knowledge gaps. This study aims to estimate the associations of flood exposure before and during pregnancy with adverse birth outcomes and to identify susceptible exposure windows and effect modifiers. METHODS: In this cohort study, we obtained all the birth records occurring in Greater Sydney, Australia, from Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2020, from the New South Wales Midwives Data Collection and in the Brisbane metropolitan region, Australia, from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2014, from the Queensland Health Perinatal Data Collection. For each birth, residential address and historical flood information from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory were used to estimate the numbers of days with floods during five exposure windows (Pre-1 was defined as 13-24 weeks before the last menstrual period [LMP], Pre-2 was 0-12 weeks before the LMP, trimester 1 [Tri-1] was 0-12 weeks after the LMP, trimester 2 [Tri-2] was 13-28 weeks after the LMP, and trimester 3 [Tri-3] was ≥29 weeks after the LMP). We estimated the hazard ratios (HRs) of adverse birth outcomes (preterm births, stillbirths, term low birthweight [TLBW], and small for gestational age [SGA]) associated with flood exposures in the five exposure windows using Cox proportional hazards regression models. FINDINGS: 1 338 314 birth records were included in our analyses, which included 91 851 (6·9%) preterm births, 9831 (0·7%) stillbirths, 25 567 (1·9%) TLBW, and 108 658 (8·1%) SGA. Flood exposure in Pre-1 was associated with increased risks of TLBW (HR 1·06 [95% CI 1·01-1·12]) and SGA (1·04 [1·01-1·06]); flood exposure during Tri-1 was associated with increased risks of preterm births (1·03 [1·002-1·05]), stillbirth (1·11 [1·03-1·20]), and SGA (1·03 [1·01-1·06]). In contrast, flood exposures during Pre-2 and Tri-3 were associated with reduced risks. INTERPRETATION: Exposures to floods in Pre-1 and Tri-1 are both associated with increased risks of adverse birth outcomes, and the risks increase with a higher exposure. Upon planning for conception and prenatal care, individuals and health practitioners should raise awareness of the increased risks of adverse birth outcomes after experiencing floods. FUNDING: The Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Adverse Cardiovascular Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination: A Systematic Review.

Several vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)-have been developed since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Of these, 7 have been approved in the World Health Organization's Emergency Use Listing. However, these vaccines have been reported to have rare or serious adverse cardiovascular effects. This review presents updated information on the adverse cardiovascular effects of the approved COVID-19 vaccines-including inactivated vaccines, protein subunit vaccines, virus-like particles, nucleic acid vaccines, and viral vector vaccines-and the underlying mechanisms.

Development of the China's list of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs): a study protocol.

BACKGROUND: The hospitalization rate of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) has been recognized as an essential indicator reflective of the overall performance of healthcare system. At present, ACSCs has been widely used in practice and research to evaluate health service quality and efficiency worldwide. The definition of ACSCs varies across countries due to different challenges posed on healthcare systems. However, China does not have its own list of ACSCs. The study aims to develop a list to meet health system monitoring, reporting and evaluation needs in China. METHODS: To develop the list, we will combine the best methodological evidence available with real-world evidence, adopt a systematic and rigorous process and absorb multidisciplinary expertise. Specific steps include: (1) establishment of working groups; (2) generations of the initial list (review of already published lists, semi-structured interviews, calculations of hospitalization rate); (3) optimization of the list (evidence evaluation, Delphi consensus survey); and (4) approval of a final version of China's ACSCs list. Within each step of the process, we will calculate frequencies and proportions, use descriptive analysis to summarize and draw conclusions, discuss the results, draft a report, and refine the list. DISCUSSION: Once completed, China's list of ACSCs can be used to comprehensively evaluate the current situation and performance of health services, identify flaws and deficiencies embedded in the healthcare system to provide evidence-based implications to inform decision-makings towards the optimization of China's healthcare system. The experiences might be broadly applicable and serve the purpose of being a prime example for nations with similar conditions.

Short-term Exposure to Wildfire-Specific PM2.5 and Diabetes Hospitalization: A Study in Multiple Countries and Territories.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations of wildfire fine particulate matter ≤2.5 mm in diameter (PM2.5) with diabetes across multiple countries and territories. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We collected data on 3,612,135 diabetes hospitalizations from 1,008 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, New Zealand, Thailand, and Taiwan during 2000-2019. Daily wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels were estimated through chemical transport models and machine-learning calibration. Quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models and random-effects meta-analysis were applied to estimate associations between wildfire-specific PM2.5 and diabetes hospitalization. Subgroup analyses were by age, sex, location income level, and country or territory. Diabetes hospitalizations attributable to wildfire-specific PM2.5 and nonwildfire PM2.5 were compared. RESULTS: Each 10 µg/m3 increase in wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels over the current day and previous 3 days was associated with relative risks (95% CI) of 1.017 (1.011-1.022), 1.023 (1.011-1.035), 1.023 (1.015-1.032), 0.962 (0.823-1.032), 1.033 (1.001-1.066), and 1.013 (1.004-1.022) for all-cause, type 1, type 2, malnutrition-related, other specified, and unspecified diabetes hospitalization, respectively. Stronger associations were observed for all-cause, type 1, and type 2 diabetes in Thailand, Australia, and Brazil; unspecified diabetes in New Zealand; and type 2 diabetes in high-income locations. An estimate of 0.67% (0.16-1.18%) and 1.02% (0.20-1.81%) for all-cause and type 2 diabetes hospitalizations were attributable to wildfire-specific PM2.5. Compared with nonwildfire PM2.5, wildfire-specific PM2.5 posed greater risks of all-cause, type 1, and type 2 diabetes and were responsible for 38.7% of PM2.5-related diabetes hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: We show the relatively underappreciated links between diabetes and wildfire air pollution, which can lead to a nonnegligible proportion of PM2.5-related diabetes hospitalizations. Precision prevention and mitigation should be developed for those in advantaged communities and in Thailand, Australia, and Brazil.

Risks of infectious disease hospitalisations in the aftermath of tropical cyclones: a multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of intense tropical cyclones is expected to increase in a changing climate. However, there is currently no consistent and comprehensive assessment of infectious disease risk following tropical cyclone exposure across countries and over decades. We aimed to explore the tropical cyclone-associated hospitalisation risks and burden for cause-specific infectious diseases on a multi-country scale. METHODS: Hospitalisation records for infectious diseases were collected from six countries and territories (Canada, South Korea, New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, and Viet Nam) during various periods between 2000 and 2019. The days with tropical cyclone-associated maximum sustained windspeeds of 34 knots or higher derived from a parametric wind field model were considered as tropical cyclone exposure days. The association of monthly infectious diseases hospitalisations and tropical cyclone exposure days was first examined at location level using a distributed lag non-linear quasi-Poisson regression model, and then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. The tropical cyclone-attributable number and fraction of infectious disease hospitalisations were also calculated. FINDINGS: Overall, 2·2 million people who were hospitalised for infectious diseases in 179 locations that had at least one tropical cyclone exposure day in the six countries and territories were included in the analysis. The elevated hospitalisation risks for infectious diseases associated with tropical cyclones tended to dissipate 2 months after the tropical cyclone exposure. Overall, each additional tropical cyclone day was associated with a 9% (cumulative relative risk 1·09 [95% CI 1·05-1·14]) increase in hospitalisations for all-cause infectious diseases, 13% (1·13 [1·05-1·21]) for intestinal infectious diseases, 14% (1·14 [1·05-1·23]) for sepsis, and 22% (1·22 [1·03-1·46]) for dengue during the 2 months after a tropical cyclone. Associations of tropical cyclones with hospitalisations for tuberculosis and malaria were not significant. In total, 0·72% (95% CI 0·40-1·01) of the hospitalisations for all-cause infectious diseases, 0·33% (0·15-0·49) for intestinal infectious diseases, 1·31% (0·57-1·95) for sepsis, and 0·63% (0·10-1·04) for dengue were attributable to tropical cyclone exposures. The attributable burdens were higher among young populations (aged ≤19 years) and male individuals compared with their counterparts, especially for intestinal infectious diseases. The heterogeneous spatiotemporal pattern was further revealed at the country and territory level-tropical cyclone-attributable fractions showed a decreasing trend in South Korea during the study period but an increasing trend in Viet Nam, Taiwan, and New Zealand. INTERPRETATION: Tropical cyclones were associated with persistent elevated hospitalisation risks of infectious diseases (particularly sepsis and intestinal infectious diseases). Targeted interventions should be formulated for different populations, regions, and causes of infectious diseases based on evidence on tropical cyclone epidemiology to respond to the increasing risk and burden. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health, and Medical Research Council.

Long-term exposure of PM2.5 components on the adults' depressive symptoms in China - Evidence from a representative longitudinal nationwide cohort.

In recent years, there is growing evidence that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with depressive symptoms. However, little is known about the individual effects of PM2.5 components, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We investigated the association between long-term exposure to major components of PM2.5 and worsening depressive symptoms in Chinese adults based on a large, long-term, nationally representative, population-based prospective cohort. Our data were derived from China Family Panel Study (CFPS) wave 2012, 2016 and 2018 and a long-term (2010-2019) high-resolution PM2.5 components dataset covering the whole China. We assessed respondents' depressive symptoms using standardized scales and applied advanced Fixed-effect ordered logit model (FE-ologit) to capture the ordinal nature of respondents' depressive symptoms and control for individual-specific and time-invariant effects to investigate their associations with PM2.5 components. We included 9503 respondents and the FE-ologit model results indicated that the odds ratio of increase per standard unit was 1.118 (95 % CI: 1.020, 1.225) for black carbon, 1.134 (95 % CI: 1.028, 1.252) for organic matter, 1.127 for ammonium (95 % CI: 1.011, 1.255), 1.107 for nitrate (95 % CI: 0.981, 1.248), and 1.117 for sulfate (95 % CI: 1.020, 1.224). Our study suggests that long-term exposure to PM2.5 components is significantly associated with worsening of depressive symptoms, and that different components may have different toxicity. Reducing PM2.5 emissions, especially the major sources of organic matter and ammonium, may reduce the burden of depressive symptoms in Chinese adults.

Rapid evidence synthesis approach for limits on the search date: How rapid could it be?

Rapid reviews have been widely employed to support timely decision-making, and limiting the search date is the most popular approach in published rapid reviews. We assessed the accuracy and workload of search date limits on the meta-analytical results to determine the best rapid strategy. The meta-analyses data were collected from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR). We emulated the rapid reviews by limiting the search date of the original CDSR to the recent 40, 35, 30, 25, 20, 15, 10, 7, 5, and 3 years, and their results were compared to the full meta-analyses. A random sample of 10% was drawn to repeat the literature search by the same timeframe limits to measure the relative workload reduction (RWR). The relationship between accuracy and RWR was established. We identified 21,363 meta-analyses of binary outcomes and 7683 meta-analyses of continuous outcomes from 2693 CDSRs. Our results suggested that under a maximum tolerance of 5% and 10% on the bias of magnitude, a limit on the recent 20 years can achieve good accuracy and at the same time save the most workload. Under the tolerance of 15% and 20% on the bias, a limit on the recent 10 years and 15 years could be considered. Limiting the search date is a valid rapid method to produce credible evidence for timely decisions. When conducting rapid reviews, researchers should consider both the accuracy and workload to make an appropriate decision.

Does long-term exposure to air pollution impair physical and mental health in the middle-aged and older adults? - A causal empirical analysis based on a longitudinal nationwide cohort in China.

The world is aging, posing a challenge to public health. Air pollution is increasingly recognized as an important environmental risk factor, with effects on both physical and mental health. Considering the vulnerability of older adults, they tend to have more prevalent comorbidities that may lead to broader consequences. However, evidence to comprehensively assess the causal effects of long-term air pollution exposure on the physical and mental health of older adults remains limited and inconsistent, especially in developing countries. The longitudinal data from the Chinese Family Panel Study (a representative Chinese national cohort study) for 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 were included in this study. The Correlated Random Effects Control Function method (CRE-CF) in a counterfactual causal inference framework was employed to explore the causal relationship between long-term exposure to air pollution and physical and mental health and self-rated health status in middle-aged and older adults, considering the ordered categorical nature of health outcomes. The appropriate instrumental variable was selected and validated. This study included 5846 participants aged >45 years in 2012. In the CRE-CF model for activities of daily living (ADLs, positively associated with physical health), subjective memory impairment (SMI, negatively associated with memory health) and self-rated health status in middle-age and older adults, the coefficient of PM2.5 is -0.069, 0.102, and 0.106 respectively, and all statistically significant at 5% level, which suggests that chronic exposure to air pollutants had significant negative effects on ADLs, SMI and self-rated health in middle-aged and older adults. The findings suggest that long-term exposure to air pollutants can impair the health of middle-aged and older adults across the board, including physical and mental health. In the context of an aging society, the findings of this study will provide tremendous implications for the authority to protect them from damage caused by long-term exposure to air pollutants.

Assessing the causal effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 during pregnancy on cognitive function in the adolescence: Evidence from a nationwide cohort in China.

The effects of air pollution on adolescents need further consideration. Although there is evidence that maternal exposure to air pollution may affect the cognitive function of offspring, relevant studies remain limited and inconsistent, with a lack of studies assessing the causal effects and evidence from developing countries. Using data from Chinese Family Panel Studies, a representative Chinese nationwide cohort study, OLS combined with instrumental variable + two-stage least square (IV+2SLS) was used to explore the causal effects of exposure to PM2.5 concentrations during pregnancy on the cognitive function of offspring when they become adolescents. After detailed argumentation and multiple testing, Planetary Boundary Layer Height (PBLH) and Surface Pressure (SP) were selected as the instrumental variables for this study. One thousand five hundred fifty-five adolescents participated in this study, with a mean age of 13.3 years (sd = 2.3). There were 706 females (45.4%), the mean maternal PM2.5 exposure concentration was 64.9 µg/m3, and recorded a mean cognitive function score of 38.1 (sd = 9.4). The OLS results found that maternal exposure to air pollution increased cognitive function in offspring adolescents, corroborating the presence of endogeneity. Multi-domain knowledge, the results of the weak instrumental variable assessments of F-tests (F = 237 > 10) and Stock-yogo tests (minimum eigenvalue statistic = 153.16 > 16.38), and the results of the Hansen J overidentification test (p > 0.05) verified the plausibility and validity of the instrumental variables. The IV+2SLS results, following causal modeling, showed that PM2.5 exposure during pregnancy impairs the cognitive ability of offspring adolescents (ß = -0.040, p < 0.05). Robustness tests also validated the results. This study provides important policy implications for developing countries on protecting their adolescents and reminds parents that the protection of adolescents from air pollution should begin from conception.