SARS-CoV-2 clade dynamics and their associations with hospitalisations during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic was characterised by rapid waves of disease, carried by the emergence of new and more infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus variants. How the pandemic unfolded in various locations during its first two years has yet to be sufficiently covered. To this end, here we are looking at the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, their diversity, and hospitalisation rates in Estonia in the period from March 2000 to March 2022. METHODS: We sequenced a total of 27,550 SARS-CoV-2 samples in Estonia between March 2020 and March 2022. High-quality sequences were genotyped and assigned to Nextstrain clades and Pango lineages. We used regression analysis to determine the dynamics of lineage diversity and the probability of clade-specific hospitalisation stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: We successfully sequenced a total of 25,375 SARS-CoV-2 genomes (or 92%), identifying 19 Nextstrain clades and 199 Pango lineages. In 2020 the most prevalent clades were 20B and 20A. The various subsequent waves of infection were driven by 20I (Alpha), 21J (Delta) and Omicron clades 21K and 21L. Lineage diversity via the Shannon index was at its highest during the Delta wave. About 3% of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples came from hospitalised individuals. Hospitalisation increased markedly with age in the over-forties, and was negligible in the under-forties. Vaccination decreased the odds of hospitalisation in over-forties. The effect of vaccination on hospitalisation rates was strongly dependent upon age but was clade-independent. People who were infected with Omicron clades had a lower hospitalisation likelihood in age groups of forty and over than was the case with pre-Omicron clades regardless of vaccination status. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 disease waves in Estonia were driven by the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron clades. Omicron clades were associated with a substantially lower hospitalisation probability than pre-Omicron clades. The protective effect of vaccination in reducing hospitalisation likelihood was independent of the involved clade.

Long-Term Elevated Inflammatory Protein Levels in Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infected Individuals.

The clinical features of SARS-CoV-2 infection range from asymptomatic to severe disease with life-threatening complications. Understanding the persistence of immune responses in asymptomatic individuals merit special attention because of their importance in controlling the spread of the infections. We here studied the antibody and T cell responses, and a wide range of inflammation markers, in 56 SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positive individuals, identified by a population screen after the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These, mostly asymptomatic individuals, were reanalyzed 7-8 months after their infection together with 115 age-matched seronegative controls. We found that 7-8 months after the infection their antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid (N) protein declined whereas we found no decrease in the antibodies to Spike receptor-binding domain (S-RBD) when compared to the findings at seropositivity identification. In contrast to antibodies to N protein, the antibodies to S-RBD correlated with the viral neutralization capacity and with CD4+ T cell responses as measured by antigen-specific upregulation of CD137 and CD69 markers. Unexpectedly we found the asymptomatic antibody-positive individuals to have increased serum levels of S100A12, TGF-alpha, IL18, and OSM, the markers of activated macrophages-monocytes, suggesting long-term persistent inflammatory effect associated with the viral infection in asymptomatic individuals. Our results support the evidence for the long-term persistence of the inflammation process and the need for post-infection clinical monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 infected asymptomatic individuals.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies and their association with clinical symptoms of COVID-19 in Estonia (KoroSero-EST-1 study).

PURPOSE: In Estonia, during the first wave of COVID-19 total number of cases confirmed by PCR was 13.3/10,000, similar in most regions, including capital Tallinn, but in the hotspot of Estonian epidemic, an island Saaremaa, the cumulative incidence was 166.1/10,000. We aimed to determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in these two regions, symptoms associated with infection and factors associated with antibody concentrations. METHODS: Participants were selected using stratified (formed by age decades) random sampling and recruited by general practitioners. IgG or neutralizing antibodies were determined from sera by four assays. Symptoms associated with seropositivity were analyzed by multiple correspondence analysis, antibody concentrations by multiple linear regression. RESULTS: Total of 3608 individual were invited and 1960 recruited from May 8 to July 31, 2020. Seroprevalence was 1.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9-2.5) and 6.3% (95% CI 5.0-7.9), infection fatality rate 0.1% (95% CI 0.0-0.2) and 1.3% (95% CI 0.4-2.1) in Tallinn and Saaremaa, respectively. Of seropositive subjects 19.2% (14/73) had acute respiratory illness. Fever, diarrhea and the absence of cough and runny nose were associated with seropositivity in individuals aged 50 or more years. IgG, but not neutralizing antibodies concentrations were higher if fever, difficulty breathing, shortness of breath, chest pain or diarrhea was present, or hospitalization required. CONCLUSION: Similarly to other European countries the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Estonia was low even in the hotspot region Saaremaa suggesting that majority of population is susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. Focusing only on respiratory symptoms may delay accurate diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection.