Improving Risk Prediction of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Using Machine Learning Methods With Network Features: Retrospective Development Study.

BACKGROUND: Health care-associated infections due to multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs), such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Clostridioides difficile (CDI), place a significant burden on our health care infrastructure. OBJECTIVE: Screening for MDROs is an important mechanism for preventing spread but is resource intensive. The objective of this study was to develop automated tools that can predict colonization or infection risk using electronic health record (EHR) data, provide useful information to aid infection control, and guide empiric antibiotic coverage. METHODS: We retrospectively developed a machine learning model to detect MRSA colonization and infection in undifferentiated patients at the time of sample collection from hospitalized patients at the University of Virginia Hospital. We used clinical and nonclinical features derived from on-admission and throughout-stay information from the patient's EHR data to build the model. In addition, we used a class of features derived from contact networks in EHR data; these network features can capture patients' contacts with providers and other patients, improving model interpretability and accuracy for predicting the outcome of surveillance tests for MRSA. Finally, we explored heterogeneous models for different patient subpopulations, for example, those admitted to an intensive care unit or emergency department or those with specific testing histories, which perform better. RESULTS: We found that the penalized logistic regression performs better than other methods, and this model's performance measured in terms of its receiver operating characteristics-area under the curve score improves by nearly 11% when we use polynomial (second-degree) transformation of the features. Some significant features in predicting MDRO risk include antibiotic use, surgery, use of devices, dialysis, patient's comorbidity conditions, and network features. Among these, network features add the most value and improve the model's performance by at least 15%. The penalized logistic regression model with the same transformation of features also performs better than other models for specific patient subpopulations. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that MRSA risk prediction can be conducted quite effectively by machine learning methods using clinical and nonclinical features derived from EHR data. Network features are the most predictive and provide significant improvement over prior methods. Furthermore, heterogeneous prediction models for different patient subpopulations enhance the model's performance.

Using spectral characterization to identify healthcare-associated infection (HAI) patients for clinical contact precaution.

Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are a major problem in hospital infection control. Although HAIs can be suppressed using contact precautions, such precautions are expensive, and we can only apply them to a small fraction of patients (i.e., a limited budget). In this work, we focus on two clinical problems arising from the limited budget: (a) choosing the best patients to be placed under precaution given a limited budget to minimize the spread (the isolation problem), and (b) choosing the best patients to release when limited budget requires some of the patients to be cleared from precaution (the clearance problem). A critical challenge in addressing them is that HAIs have multiple transmission pathways such that locations can also accumulate 'load' and spread the disease. One of the most common practices when placing patients under contact precautions is the regular clearance of pathogen loads. However, standard propagation models like independent cascade (IC)/susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) cannot capture such mechanisms directly. Hence to account for this challenge, using non-linear system theory, we develop a novel spectral characterization of a recently proposed pathogen load based model, 2-MODE-SIS model, on people/location networks to capture spread dynamics of HAIs. We formulate the two clinical problems using this spectral characterization and develop effective and efficient algorithms for them. Our experiments show that our methods outperform several natural structural and clinical approaches on real-world hospital testbeds and pick meaningful solutions.

Hyppo-X: A Scalable Exploratory Framework for Analyzing Complex Phenomics Data.

Phenomics is an emerging branch of modern biology that uses high throughput phenotyping tools to capture multiple environmental and phenotypic traits, often at massive spatial and temporal scales. The resulting high dimensional data represent a treasure trove of information for providing an in-depth understanding of how multiple factors interact and contribute to the overall growth and behavior of different genotypes. However, computational tools that can parse through such complex data and aid in extracting plausible hypotheses are currently lacking. In this article, we present Hyppo-X, a new algorithmic approach to visually explore complex phenomics data and in the process characterize the role of environment on phenotypic traits. We model the problem as one of unsupervised structure discovery, and use emerging principles from algebraic topology and graph theory for discovering higher-order structures of complex phenomics data. We present an open source software which has interactive visualization capabilities to facilitate data navigation and hypothesis formulation. We test and evaluate Hyppo-X on two real-world plant (maize) data sets. Our results demonstrate the ability of our approach to delineate divergent subpopulation-level behavior. Notably, our approach shows how environmental factors could influence phenotypic behavior, and how that effect varies across different genotypes and different time scales. To the best of our knowledge, this effort provides one of the first approaches to systematically formalize the problem of hypothesis extraction for phenomics data. Considering the infancy of the phenomics field, tools that help users explore complex data and extract plausible hypotheses in a data-guided manner will be critical to future advancements in the use of such data.

Privacy-first health research with federated learning.

Privacy protection is paramount in conducting health research. However, studies often rely on data stored in a centralized repository, where analysis is done with full access to the sensitive underlying content. Recent advances in federated learning enable building complex machine-learned models that are trained in a distributed fashion. These techniques facilitate the calculation of research study endpoints such that private data never leaves a given device or healthcare system. We show-on a diverse set of single and multi-site health studies-that federated models can achieve similar accuracy, precision, and generalizability, and lead to the same interpretation as standard centralized statistical models while achieving considerably stronger privacy protections and without significantly raising computational costs. This work is the first to apply modern and general federated learning methods that explicitly incorporate differential privacy to clinical and epidemiological research-across a spectrum of units of federation, model architectures, complexity of learning tasks and diseases. As a result, it enables health research participants to remain in control of their data and still contribute to advancing science-aspects that used to be at odds with each other.