The National COVID Cancer Antibody Survey: a hyper-accelerated study proof of principle for cancer research.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a range of novel and adaptive research designs. In this perspective, we use our experience coordinating the National COVID Cancer Antibody Survey to demonstrate how a balance between speed and integrity can be achieved within a hyper-accelerated study design. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, we show this approach is necessary in the face of uncertain and evolving situations wherein reliable information is needed in a timely fashion to guide policy. We identify streamlined participant involvement, healthcare systems integration, data architecture and real-world real-time analytics as key areas that differentiate this design from traditional cancer trials, and enable rapid results. Caution needs to be taken to avoid the exclusion of patient subgroups without digital access or literacy. We summarise the merits and defining features of hyper-accelerated cancer studies.

Clinical trials in cancer screening, prevention and early diagnosis (SPED): a systematic mapping review.

BACKGROUND: Global annual cancer incidence is forecast to rise to 27.5 M by 2040, a 62% increase from 2018. For most cancers, prevention and early detection are the most effective ways of reducing mortality. This study maps trials in cancer screening, prevention, and early diagnosis (SPED) to identify areas of unmet need and highlight research priorities. METHODS: A systematic mapping review was conducted to evaluate all clinical trials focused on cancer SPED, irrespective of tumour type. The National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) portfolio, EMBASE, PubMed and Medline were searched for relevant papers published between 01/01/2007 and 01/04/2020. References were exported into Covidence software and double-screened. Data were extracted and mapped according to tumour site, geographical location, and intervention type. RESULTS: One hundred seventeen thousand seven hundred one abstracts were screened, 5157 full texts reviewed, and 2888 studies included. 1184 (52%) trials focussed on screening, 554 (24%) prevention, 442 (20%) early diagnosis, and 85 (4%) a combination. Colorectal, breast, and cervical cancer comprised 61% of all studies compared with 6.4% in lung and 1.8% in liver cancer. The latter two are responsible for 26.3% of global cancer deaths compared with 19.3% for the former three. Number of studies varied markedly according to geographical location; 88% were based in North America, Europe, or Asia. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows clear disparities in the volume of research conducted across different tumour types and according to geographical location. These findings will help drive future research effort so that resources can be directed towards major challenges in cancer SPED.

Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 breakthrough infections in patients with cancer (UKCCEP): a population-based test-negative case-control study.

BACKGROUND: People with cancer are at increased risk of hospitalisation and death following infection with SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, we aimed to conduct one of the first evaluations of vaccine effectiveness against breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections in patients with cancer at a population level. METHODS: In this population-based test-negative case-control study of the UK Coronavirus Cancer Evaluation Project (UKCCEP), we extracted data from the UKCCEP registry on all SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results (from the Second Generation Surveillance System), vaccination records (from the National Immunisation Management Service), patient demographics, and cancer records from England, UK, from Dec 8, 2020, to Oct 15, 2021. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with cancer in the UKCCEP registry were identified via Public Health England's Rapid Cancer Registration Dataset between Jan 1, 2018, and April 30, 2021, and comprised the cancer cohort. We constructed a control population cohort from adults with PCR tests in the UKCCEP registry who were not contained within the Rapid Cancer Registration Dataset. The coprimary endpoints were overall vaccine effectiveness against breakthrough infections after the second dose (positive PCR COVID-19 test) and vaccine effectiveness against breakthrough infections at 3-6 months after the second dose in the cancer cohort and control population. FINDINGS: The cancer cohort comprised 377 194 individuals, of whom 42 882 had breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections. The control population consisted of 28 010 955 individuals, of whom 5 748 708 had SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections. Overall vaccine effectiveness was 69·8% (95% CI 69·8-69·9) in the control population and 65·5% (65·1-65·9) in the cancer cohort. Vaccine effectiveness at 3-6 months was lower in the cancer cohort (47·0%, 46·3-47·6) than in the control population (61·4%, 61·4-61·5). INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 vaccination is effective for individuals with cancer, conferring varying levels of protection against breakthrough infections. However, vaccine effectiveness is lower in patients with cancer than in the general population. COVID-19 vaccination for patients with cancer should be used in conjunction with non-pharmacological strategies and community-based antiviral treatment programmes to reduce the risk that COVID-19 poses to patients with cancer. FUNDING: University of Oxford, University of Southampton, University of Birmingham, Department of Health and Social Care, and Blood Cancer UK.

Ex vivo explant model of adenoma and colorectal cancer to explore mechanisms of action and patient response to cancer prevention therapies.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer death in the UK. Novel therapeutic prevention strategies to inhibit the development and progression of CRC would be invaluable. Potential contenders include low toxicity agents such as dietary-derived agents or repurposed drugs. However, in vitro and in vivo models used in drug development often do not take into account the heterogeneity of tumours or the tumour microenvironment. This limits translation to a clinical setting. Our objectives were to develop an ex vivo method utilizing CRC and adenoma patient-derived explants (PDEs) which facilitates screening of drugs, assessment of toxicity, and efficacy. Our aims were to use a multiplexed immunofluorescence approach to demonstrate the viability of colorectal tissue PDEs, and the ability to assess immune cell composition and interactions. Using clinically achievable concentrations of curcumin, we show a correlation between curcumin-induced tumour and stromal apoptosis (P < .001) in adenomas and cancers; higher stromal content is associated with poorer outcomes. B cell (CD20+ve) and T cell (CD3+ve) density of immune cells within tumour regions in control samples correlated with curcumin-induced tumour apoptosis (P < .001 and P < .05, respectively), suggesting curcumin-induced apoptosis is potentially predicted by baseline measures of immune cells. A decrease in distance between T cells (CD3+ve) and cytokeratin+ve cells was observed, indicating movement of T cells (CD3+ve) towards the tumour margin (P < .001); this change is consistent with an immune environment associated with improved outcomes. Concurrently, an increase in distance between T cells (CD3+ve) and B cells (CD20+ve) was detected following curcumin treatment (P < .001), which may result in a less immunosuppressive tumour milieu. The colorectal tissue PDE model offers significant potential for simultaneously assessing multiple biomarkers in response to drug exposure allowing a greater understanding of mechanisms of action and efficacy in relevant target tissues, that maintain both their structural integrity and immune cell compartments.

Biopsy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: results of a multicentre UK audit.

BACKGROUND: Advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is commonly diagnosed using non-invasive radiological criteria (NIRC) defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver or the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases. In 2017, The National Institute for Clinical Excellence mandated histological confirmation of disease to authorise the use of sorafenib in the UK. METHODS: This was a prospective multicentre audit in which patients suitable for sorafenib were identified at multidisciplinary meetings. The primary analysis cohort (PAC) was defined by the presence of Child-Pugh class A liver disease and performance status 0-2. Clinical, radiological and histological data were reported locally and collected on a standardised case report form. RESULTS: Eleven centres reported 418 cases, of which 361 comprised the PAC. Overall, 76% had chronic liver disease and 66% were cirrhotic. The diagnostic imaging was computed tomography in 71%, magnetic resonance imaging in 27% and 2% had both. Pre-existing histology was available in 45 patients and 270 underwent a new biopsy, which confirmed HCC in 93.4%. Alternative histological diagnoses included cholangiocarcinoma (CC) and combined HCC-CC. In cirrhotic patients, NIRC criteria had a sensitivity of 65.4% and a positive predictive value of 91.4% to detect HCC. Two patients (0.7%) experienced mild post-biopsy bleeding. CONCLUSION: The diagnostic biopsy is safe and feasible for most patients eligible for systemic therapy.

HASTE MRI sequence findings correlate with loss of deep pain perception in dogs with thoracolumbar disc extrusion.

BACKGROUND: Thoracolumbar intervertebral disc extrusion (TL IVDE) is a common reason for the veterinary hospital admission. Various imaging factors including degree and length of compression have been tested for correlation with clinical severity, but no reliable correlation has been found. Half-Fourier acquisition single-shot turbo spin echo (HASTE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences highlight the dorsal and ventral cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) columns and have been used to demonstrate spinal cord swelling in dogs with TL IVDE. This has been used as a predictor of progressive ascending-descending myelomalacia but has not been correlated with neurological grade. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the correlation between the attenuation of CSF HASTE signal and clinical severity in dogs suffering from TL disc extrusions. METHODS: Dogs less than 15 kg who were non-ambulatory due to suspected TL IVDE were prospectively recruited for a study into conservative management. MRI studies were undertaken under sedation including HASTE sequences. The ratio of the length of CSF attenuation to the length of the L2 vertebra was calculated and correlated with clinical severity. RESULTS: Twenty dogs met the inclusion criteria. No statistically significant difference was demonstrated between the mean CSF attenuation and neurological grade (p = 0.17 but there was a significant difference in the mean CSF attenuation in those who retained deep pain perception and those who did not (p = 0.02). Time to loss of ambulation was also found to not be correlated with CSF attenuation (p = 0.95). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the length of CSF attenuation of HASTE MRI sequences in dogs less than 15 kg suffering from IVDEs may be correlated with a loss of deep pain perception.

Interobserver agreement of computed tomography in detecting calcified intervertebral discs in comparison with radiography in a population of 13 healthy British Dachshund dogs.

Background: The aims of this retrospective study were to estimate interobserver agreement in detecting disc calcification with computed tomography (CT) and to compare the number of calcified intervertebral discs identified on CT and radiography in healthy British Dachshund dogs that underwent a screening programme. The current screening programme uses radiography to identify calcified intervertebral discs. Methods: Healthy Dachshunds aged between 2 and 5 years presenting for spinal radiography and CT as part of a disc scoring scheme were included. The spinal radiographs were scored by an independent assessor as per the screening programme protocol. The CT images were blinded and reviewed by three different observers of differing levels of experience. The number of discs identified as being calcified was then compared between imaging modalities and between observers. Results: Thirteen dogs were included. Overall, 146 calcified discs were identified by CT compared with 42 by radiography. There was an almost perfect agreement among the three observers identifying calcified discs with CT images (k = 0.92). There was a significant difference between the radiography scores and CT scores. Conclusions: This study demonstrated a significant difference in the number of calcified intervertebral discs identified in the vertebral column of a small population of healthy Dachshunds between CT and radiography. Given the high agreement between the observers with CT, this may be a reliable method for assessing disc calcification in Dachshund dogs and could be a good candidate for future breeding schemes.

Individual participant data from digital sources informed and improved precision in the evaluation of predictive biomarkers in Bayesian network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop a network meta-analytic model for the evaluation of treatment effectiveness within predictive biomarker subgroups, by combining evidence from individual participant data (IPD) from digital sources (in the absence of randomized controlled trials) and aggregate data (AD). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A Bayesian framework was developed for modeling time-to-event data to evaluate predictive biomarkers. IPD were sourced from electronic health records, using a target trial emulation approach, or digitized Kaplan-Meier curves. The model is illustrated using two examples: breast cancer with a hormone receptor biomarker, and metastatic colorectal cancer with the Kirsten Rat Sarcoma (KRAS) biomarker. RESULTS: The model allowed for the estimation of treatment effects in two subgroups of patients defined by their biomarker status. Effectiveness of taxanes did not differ in hormone receptor positive and negative breast cancer patients. Epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitors were more effective than chemotherapy in KRAS wild type colorectal cancer patients but not in patients with KRAS mutant status. Use of IPD reduced uncertainty of the subgroup-specific treatment effect estimates by up to 49%. CONCLUSION: Utilization of IPD allowed for more detailed evaluation of predictive biomarkers and cancer therapies and improved precision of the estimates compared to use of AD alone.

A population-scale temporal case-control evaluation of COVID-19 disease phenotype and related outcome rates in patients with cancer in England (UKCCP).

Patients with cancer are at increased risk of hospitalisation and mortality following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. However, the SARS-CoV-2 phenotype evolution in patients with cancer since 2020 has not previously been described. We therefore evaluated SARS-CoV-2 on a UK populationscale from 01/11/2020-31/08/2022, assessing case-outcome rates of hospital assessment(s), intensive care admission and mortality. We observed that the SARS-CoV-2 disease phenotype has become less severe in patients with cancer and the non-cancer population. Case-hospitalisation rates for patients with cancer dropped from 30.58% in early 2021 to 7.45% in 2022 while case-mortality rates decreased from 20.53% to 3.25%. However, the risk of hospitalisation and mortality remains 2.10x and 2.54x higher in patients with cancer, respectively. Overall, the SARS-CoV-2 disease phenotype is less severe in 2022 compared to 2020 but patients with cancer remain at higher risk than the non-cancer population. Patients with cancer must therefore be empowered to live more normal lives, to see loved ones and families, while also being safeguarded with expanded measures to reduce the risk of transmission.

Association of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Antibody Vaccine Response With Infection Severity in Patients With Cancer: A National COVID Cancer Cross-sectional Evaluation.

Importance: Accurate identification of patient groups with the lowest level of protection following COVID-19 vaccination is important to better target resources and interventions for the most vulnerable populations. It is not known whether SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing has clinical utility for high-risk groups, such as people with cancer. Objective: To evaluate whether spike protein antibody vaccine response (COV-S) following COVID-19 vaccination is associated with the risk of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection or hospitalization among patients with cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a population-based cross-sectional study of patients with cancer from the UK as part of the National COVID Cancer Antibody Survey. Adults with a known or reported cancer diagnosis who had completed their primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination schedule were included. This analysis ran from September 1, 2021, to March 4, 2022, a period covering the expansion of the UK's third-dose vaccination booster program. Interventions: Anti-SARS-CoV-2 COV-S antibody test (Elecsys; Roche). Main Outcomes and Measures: Odds of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection and COVID-19 hospitalization. Results: The evaluation comprised 4249 antibody test results from 3555 patients with cancer and 294 230 test results from 225 272 individuals in the noncancer population. The overall cohort of 228 827 individuals (patients with cancer and the noncancer population) comprised 298 479 antibody tests. The median age of the cohort was in the age band of 40 and 49 years and included 182 741 test results (61.22%) from women and 115 737 (38.78%) from men. There were 279 721 tests (93.72%) taken by individuals identifying as White or White British. Patients with cancer were more likely to have undetectable anti-S antibody responses than the general population (199 of 4249 test results [4.68%] vs 376 of 294 230 [0.13%]; P < .001). Patients with leukemia or lymphoma had the lowest antibody titers. In the cancer cohort, following multivariable correction, patients who had an undetectable antibody response were at much greater risk for SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection (odds ratio [OR], 3.05; 95% CI, 1.96-4.72; P < .001) and SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalization (OR, 6.48; 95% CI, 3.31-12.67; P < .001) than individuals who had a positive antibody response. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that COV-S antibody testing allows the identification of patients with cancer who have the lowest level of antibody-derived protection from COVID-19. This study supports larger evaluations of SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing. Prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to patients with cancer should be prioritized to minimize impact on cancer treatments and maximize quality of life for individuals with cancer during the ongoing pandemic.

Contrast-Enhanced Low-Field MRI Occasionally Alters the Surgical Approach for Canine Intervertebral Disc Extrusions.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe how the addition of contrast-enhanced low-field magnetic resonance imaging sequences can confirm or change the initially planned surgical approach for canine intervertebral disc extrusions. STUDY DESIGN: Magnetic resonance imagings of 20 dogs diagnosed with intervertebral disc extrusions were retrospectively reviewed by a board-certified neurologist for the location of extradural disc material, contrast enhancement, and whether enhancement reinforced or changed the initially planned surgical approach. RESULTS: Extradural compressive material contrast-enhanced in 17/20 dogs. In 14/20 dogs, enhancement was considered to increase the confidence level of the location for surgery including two cases where the surgical approach was altered. CONCLUSION: Gadolinium-based contrast agents in low-field magnetic resonance imaging can aid the surgical planning of intervertebral disc extrusions in dogs by improving the confidence level of location and extent of extradural material and occasionally altering the surgical approach.

Alternative Treatment Options to ALK Inhibitor Monotherapy for EML4-ALK-Driven Lung Cancer.

EML4-ALK is an oncogenic fusion protein that accounts for approximately 5% of NSCLC cases. Targeted inhibitors of ALK are the standard of care treatment, often leading to a good initial response. Sadly, some patients do not respond well, and most will develop resistance over time, emphasizing the need for alternative treatments. This review discusses recent advances in our understanding of the mechanisms behind EML4-ALK-driven NSCLC progression and the opportunities they present for alternative treatment options to ALK inhibitor monotherapy. Targeting ALK-dependent signalling pathways can overcome resistance that has developed due to mutations in the ALK catalytic domain, as well as through activation of bypass mechanisms that utilise the same pathways. We also consider evidence for polytherapy approaches that combine targeted inhibition of these pathways with ALK inhibitors. Lastly, we review combination approaches that use targeted inhibitors of ALK together with chemotherapy, radiotherapy or immunotherapy. Throughout this article, we highlight the importance of alternative breakpoints in the EML4 gene that result in the generation of distinct EML4-ALK variants with different biological and pathological properties and consider monotherapy and polytherapy approaches that may be selective to particular variants.

The spinal cord-to-vertebral canal area ratio measured with computed tomography is lower in the thoracolumbar than the cervical region in French Bulldogs.

OBJECTIVE: To compare spinal cord-to-vertebral canal area ratios measured with CT between the cervical and thoracolumbar regions in French Bulldogs. ANIMALS: 37 French Bulldogs presented to a referral hospital between 2016 and 2019. PROCEDURES: The study was conducted as a retrospective observational study. Exclusion criteria were evidence of vertebral malformations or spinal cord compression at the sites where measurements were obtained and the presence of cervicothoracic or thoracolumbar transitional vertebrae or neurologic deficits. CT images were reviewed, and measurements were performed by 2 investigators. Measurements of the spinal cord and vertebral canal were made at the level of or immediately cranial to the midbodies of C5 and L1. RESULTS: A 2-tailed, paired t test indicated that the mean spinal cord-to-vertebral canal area ratio differed significantly (P < .01) between C5 (0.726) and L1 (0.605). The ratio was lower in the thoracolumbar region, suggesting that the vertebral canal was relatively larger in this region. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The epidural space did not appear to be larger in the cervical than in the thoracolumbar region in this population of French Bulldogs, contrary to previous reports. The reason for the more severe deficits observed with thoracolumbar disk extrusion in this breed remains to be characterized.

Comparative review of pharmacological therapies in individuals with HER2-positive advanced breast cancer with focus on hormone receptor subgroups.

Breast cancer is the fifth leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of targeted therapies in human epidermal receptor 2 (HER2)-positive advanced breast cancer (ABC) have provided an evidence base for regulatory and reimbursement agencies to appraise the use of cancer therapies in clinical practice. However, a subset of these patients harbor additional biomarkers, for example, a positive hormone receptor status that may be more amenable to therapy and improve overall survival (OS). This review seeks to explore the reporting of evidence for treatment effects by the hormone receptor status using the RCT evidence of targeted therapies for HER2-positive ABC patients. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines were followed to identify published RCTs. Extracted data were synthesized using network meta-analysis to obtain the relative effects of HER2-positive-targeted therapies. We identified a gap in the reporting of the effectiveness of therapies by the hormone receptor status as only 15 out of 42 identified RCTs reported hormone receptor subgroup analyses; the majority of which reported progression-free survival but not OS or the overall response rate. In conclusion, we recommend that future trials in ABC should report the effect of cancer therapies in hormone receptor subgroups for all outcomes.

The Validity of Surrogate Endpoints in Sub Groups of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Defined by Treatment Class and KRAS Status.

Background and Aim: Findings from the literature suggest that the validity of surrogate endpoints in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) may depend on a treatments' mechanism of action. We explore this and the impact of Kirsten rat sarcoma (KRAS) status on surrogacy patterns in mCRC. Methods: A systematic review was undertaken to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for pharmacological therapies in mCRC. Bayesian meta-analytic methods for surrogate endpoint evaluation were used to evaluate surrogate relationships across all RCTs, by KRAS status and treatment class. Surrogate endpoints explored were progression free survival (PFS) as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS), and tumour response (TR) as a surrogate for PFS and OS. Results: 66 RCTs were identified from the systematic review. PFS showed a strong surrogate relationship with OS across all data and in subgroups by KRAS status. The relationship appeared stronger within individual treatment classes compared to the overall analysis. The TR-PFS and TR-OS relationships were found to be weak overall but stronger within the Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor + Chemotherapy (EGFR + Chemo) treatment class; both overall and in the wild type (WT) patients for TR-PFS, but not in patients with the mutant (MT) KRAS status where data were limited. Conclusions: PFS appeared to be a good surrogate endpoint for OS. TR showed a moderate surrogate relationship with PFS and OS for the EGFR + Chemo treatment class. There was some evidence of impact of the mechanism of action on the strength of the surrogacy patterns in mCRC, but little evidence of the impact of KRAS status on the validity of surrogate endpoints.

EML4-ALK Variant 3 Promotes Mitotic Errors and Spindle Assembly Checkpoint Deficiency Leading to Increased Microtubule Poison Sensitivity.

EML4-ALK is an oncogenic fusion protein present in approximately 5% of non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC). Alternative breakpoints in the gene encoding EML4 result in distinct variants that are linked to markedly different patient outcomes. Patients with EML4-ALK variant 3 (V3) respond poorly to ALK inhibitors and have lower survival rates compared with patients with other common variants, such as V1. Here, we use isogenic Beas-2B bronchial epithelial cell lines expressing EML4-ALK V1 or V3, as well as ALK-positive NSCLC patient cells that express V1 (H3122 cells) or V3 (H2228 cells), to show that EML4-ALK V3 but not V1 leads to hyperstabilized K-fibers in mitosis, as well as errors in chromosome congression and segregation. This is consistent with our observation that EML4-ALK V3 but not V1 localizes to spindle microtubules and that wild-type EML4 is a microtubule stabilizing protein. In addition, cells expressing EML4-ALK V3 exhibit loss of spindle assembly checkpoint control that is at least in part dependent on ALK catalytic activity. Finally, we demonstrate that cells expressing EML4-ALK V3 have increased sensitivity to microtubule poisons that interfere with mitotic spindle assembly, whereas combination treatment with paclitaxel and clinically approved ALK inhibitors leads to a synergistic response in terms of reduced survival of H2228 cells. IMPLICATIONS: This study suggests that combining the microtubule poison, paclitaxel, with targeted ALK inhibitors may provide an effective new treatment option for patients with NSCLC with tumors that express the EML4-ALK V3 oncogenic fusion.

Establishment of CORONET, COVID-19 Risk in Oncology Evaluation Tool, to Identify Patients With Cancer at Low Versus High Risk of Severe Complications of COVID-19 Disease On Presentation to Hospital.

PURPOSE: Patients with cancer are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease, but have heterogeneous presentations and outcomes. Decision-making tools for hospital admission, severity prediction, and increased monitoring for early intervention are critical. We sought to identify features of COVID-19 disease in patients with cancer predicting severe disease and build a decision support online tool, COVID-19 Risk in Oncology Evaluation Tool (CORONET). METHODS: Patients with active cancer (stage I-IV) and laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 disease presenting to hospitals worldwide were included. Discharge (within 24 hours), admission (≥ 24 hours inpatient), oxygen (O2) requirement, and death were combined in a 0-3 point severity scale. Association of features with outcomes were investigated using Lasso regression and Random Forest combined with Shapley Additive Explanations. The CORONET model was then examined in the entire cohort to build an online CORONET decision support tool. Admission and severe disease thresholds were established through pragmatically defined cost functions. Finally, the CORONET model was validated on an external cohort. RESULTS: The model development data set comprised 920 patients, with median age 70 (range 5-99) years, 56% males, 44% females, and 81% solid versus 19% hematologic cancers. In derivation, Random Forest demonstrated superior performance over Lasso with lower mean squared error (0.801 v 0.807) and was selected for development. During validation (n = 282 patients), the performance of CORONET varied depending on the country cohort. CORONET cutoffs for admission and mortality of 1.0 and 2.3 were established. The CORONET decision support tool recommended admission for 95% of patients eventually requiring oxygen and 97% of those who died (94% and 98% in validation, respectively). The specificity for mortality prediction was 92% and 83% in derivation and validation, respectively. Shapley Additive Explanations revealed that National Early Warning Score 2, C-reactive protein, and albumin were the most important features contributing to COVID-19 severity prediction in patients with cancer at time of hospital presentation. CONCLUSION: CORONET, a decision support tool validated in health care systems worldwide, can aid admission decisions and predict COVID-19 severity in patients with cancer.

COVID-19: Third dose booster vaccine effectiveness against breakthrough coronavirus infection, hospitalisations and death in patients with cancer: A population-based study.

PURPOSE: People living with cancer and haematological malignancies are at an increased risk of hospitalisation and death following infection with acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Coronavirus third dose vaccine boosters are proposed to boost waning immune responses in immunocompromised individuals and increase coronavirus protection; however, their effectiveness has not yet been systematically evaluated. METHODS: This study is a population-scale real-world evaluation of the United Kingdom's third dose vaccine booster programme for cancer patients from 8th December 2020 to 7th December 2021. The cancer cohort comprises individuals from Public Health England's national cancer dataset, excluding individuals less than 18 years. A test-negative case-control design was used to assess the third dose booster vaccine effectiveness. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to compare risk in the cancer cohort relative to the general population. RESULTS: The cancer cohort comprised of 2,258,553 tests from 361,098 individuals. Third dose boosters were evaluated by reference to 87,039,743 polymerase chain reaction coronavirus tests. Vaccine effectiveness against breakthrough infections, symptomatic infections, coronavirus hospitalisation and death in cancer patients were 59.1%, 62.8%, 80.5% and 94.5%, respectively. Lower vaccine effectiveness was associated with a cancer diagnosis within 12 months, lymphoma, recent systemic anti-cancer therapy (SACT) or radiotherapy. Patients with lymphoma had low levels of protection from symptomatic disease. In spite of third dose boosters, following multivariable adjustment, individuals with cancer remain at an increased risk of coronavirus hospitalisation and death compared to the population control (OR 3.38, 3.01, respectively. p < 0.001 for both). CONCLUSIONS: Third dose boosters are effective for most individuals with cancer, increasing protection from coronavirus. However, their effectiveness is heterogenous and lower than the general population. Many patients with cancer will remain at the increased risk of coronavirus infections even after 3 doses. In the case of patients with lymphoma, there is a particularly strong disparity of vaccine effectiveness against breakthrough infection and severe disease. Breakthrough infections will disrupt cancer care and treatment with potentially adverse consequences on survival outcomes. The data support the role of vaccine boosters in preventing severe disease, and further pharmacological intervention to prevent transmission and aid viral clearance to limit the disruption of cancer care as the delivery of care continues to evolve during the coronavirus pandemic.

An International Comparison of Presentation, Outcomes and CORONET Predictive Score Performance in Patients with Cancer Presenting with COVID-19 across Different Pandemic Waves.

Patients with cancer have been shown to have increased risk of COVID-19 severity. We previously built and validated the COVID-19 Risk in Oncology Evaluation Tool (CORONET) to predict the likely severity of COVID-19 in patients with active cancer who present to hospital. We assessed the differences in presentation and outcomes of patients with cancer and COVID-19, depending on the wave of the pandemic. We examined differences in features at presentation and outcomes in patients worldwide, depending on the waves of the pandemic: wave 1 D614G (n = 1430), wave 2 Alpha (n = 475), and wave 4 Omicron variant (n = 63, UK and Spain only). The performance of CORONET was evaluated on 258, 48, and 54 patients for each wave, respectively. We found that mortality rates were reduced in subsequent waves. The majority of patients were vaccinated in wave 4, and 94% were treated with steroids if they required oxygen. The stages of cancer and the median ages of patients significantly differed, but features associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes remained predictive and did not differ between waves. The CORONET tool performed well in all waves, with scores in an area under the curve (AUC) of >0.72. We concluded that patients with cancer who present to hospital with COVID-19 have similar features of severity, which remain discriminatory despite differences in variants and vaccination status. Survival improved following the first wave of the pandemic, which may be associated with vaccination and the increased steroid use in those patients requiring oxygen. The CORONET model demonstrated good performance, independent of the SARS-CoV-2 variants.