A Liver Stiffness-Based Etiology-Independent Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores have modest accuracy, and most are specific to chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, we developed and validated a liver stiffness-based machine learning algorithm (ML) for prediction and risk stratification of HCC in various chronic liver diseases (CLDs). METHODS: MLs were trained for prediction of HCC in 5155 adult patients with various CLDs in Korea and further tested in 2 prospective cohorts from Hong Kong (HK) (N = 2732) and Europe (N = 2384). Model performance was assessed according to Harrell's C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: We developed the SMART-HCC score, a liver stiffness-based ML HCC risk score, with liver stiffness measurement ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features. The Harrell's C-index of the SMART-HCC score in HK and Europe validation cohorts were 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.95), respectively. The area under ROC curves of the SMART-HCC score for HCC in 5 years was ≥0.89 in both validation cohorts. The performance of SMART-HCC score was significantly better than existing HCC risk scores including aMAP score, Toronto HCC risk index, and 7 hepatitis B-related risk scores. Using dual cutoffs of 0.043 and 0.080, the annual HCC incidence was 0.09%-0.11% for low-risk group and 2.54%-4.64% for high-risk group in the HK and Europe validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The SMART-HCC score is a useful machine learning-based tool for clinicians to stratify HCC risk in patients with CLDs.

Liver cancer risk across metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and/or alcohol: a nationwide study.

OBJECTIVES: New terminologies of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) have been developed. We assessed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk across MASLD and/or alcohol intake. METHODS: We included participants aged 40-79 years receiving a national health check-up from 2009 to 2010 in the Republic of Korea, classified as follows: non-MASLD, MASLD, MASLD with increased alcohol intake (MetALD; weekly alcohol 210-420 g for male and 140-350 g for female), and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD; excessive alcohol intake with weekly alcohol ≥420 g for male or ≥350 g for female). The primary outcome was HCC incidence. HCC risk was estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 6,412,209 participants, proportions of non-MASLD, MASLD, MetALD, and ALD cases were 59.5%, 32.4%, 4.8%, and 3.4%, respectively. During follow-up (median 13.3 years), 27,118 had newly developed HCC. Compared to non-MASLD, the HCC risk increased from MASLD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.62-1.71), MetALD (aHR 2.17, 95% CI 2.08-2.27) to ALD (aHR 2.34, 95% CI 2.24-2.45) in a stepwise manner. Furthermore, the older and non-cirrhosis subgroups were more vulnerable to detrimental effect of MASLD and/or alcohol intake, concerning HCC risk. Among the older, female, and cirrhosis subgroups, MetALD poses similar HCC risks as ALD. CONCLUSION: HCC risk increased from MASLD, MetALD to ALD in a stepwise manner, compared to non-MASLD. For an effective primary prevention of HCC, a comprehensive approach should be required to modify both metabolic dysfunction and alcohol intake habit.

Magnetic resonance elastography-based prediction model for hepatic decompensation in NAFLD: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is an accurate, continuous biomarker of liver fibrosis; however, the optimal combination with clinical factors to predict the risk of incident hepatic decompensation is unknown. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate an MRE-based prediction model for hepatic decompensation for patients with NAFLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This international multicenter cohort study included participants with NAFLD undergoing MRE from 6 hospitals. A total of 1254 participants were randomly assigned as training (n = 627) and validation (n = 627) cohorts. The primary end point was hepatic decompensation, defined as the first occurrence of variceal hemorrhage, ascites, or HE. Covariates associated with hepatic decompensation on Cox-regression were combined with MRE to construct a risk prediction model in the training cohort and then tested in the validation cohort. The median (IQR) age and MRE values were 61 (18) years and 3.5 (2.5) kPa in the training cohort and 60 (20) years and 3.4 (2.5) kPa in the validation cohort, respectively. The MRE-based multivariable model that included age, MRE, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets had excellent discrimination for the 3- and 5-year risk of hepatic decompensation (c-statistic 0.912 and 0.891, respectively) in the training cohort. The diagnostic accuracy remained consistent in the validation cohort with a c-statistic of 0.871 and 0.876 for hepatic decompensation at 3 and 5 years, respectively, and was superior to Fibrosis-4 in both cohorts ( p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: An MRE-based prediction model allows for accurate prediction of hepatic decompensation and assists in the risk stratification of patients with NAFLD.

Outcome of untreated low-level viremia versus antiviral therapy-induced or spontaneous undetectable HBV-DNA in compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Comparative outcomes of HBV-infected compensated cirrhosis with low-level viremia (LLV) versus maintained virological response (MVR) are unclear. We conducted a large, multiethnic, multicenter study to examine the natural history of LLV versus MVR in compensated cirrhosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We enrolled patients with HBV-infected compensated cirrhosis (n=2316) from 19 hospitals in South Korea, Singapore, and Japan. We defined the LLV group as untreated patients with ≥1 detectable serum HBV-DNA (20-2000 IU/mL), Spontaneous-MVR group as untreated patients with spontaneously achieved MVR, and antiviral therapy (AVT)-MVR group as patients achieving AVT-induced MVR. Study end points were HCC or hepatic decompensation. RESULTS: The annual HCC incidence was 2.7/100 person-years (PYs), 2.6/100 PYs, and 3.3/100 PYs for LLV (n=742), Spontaneous-MVR (n=333), and AVT-MVR (n=1241) groups, respectively ( p = 0.81 between LLV vs. Spontaneous-MVR groups and p = 0.37 between LLV vs. AVT-MVR groups). Similarly, the annual decompensation incidence was 1.6/100 PYs, 1.9/100 PYs, and 1.6/100 PYs for LLV, Spontaneous-MVR, and AVT-MVR groups, respectively ( p = 0.40 between LLV vs. Spontaneous-MVR groups and p = 0.83 between LLV vs. AVT-MVR groups). Multivariable analyses determined that HCC and decompensation risks in the LLV group were comparable to those with Spontaneous-MVR and AVT-MVR groups (all p >0.05). Propensity score matching also reproduced similar results for HCC and decompensation risks (all p >0.05 between LLV vs. Spontaneous-MVR groups and between LLV vs. AVT-MVR groups). CONCLUSIONS: Untreated LLV in HBV-infected compensated cirrhosis is not associated with increased risk of disease progression compared with Spontaneous-MVR and AVT-MVR. These data have important implications for practice and further research.

Association between selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor use and developing irritable bowel syndrome through retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Serotonin affects the balance and integrity of the gut microbiome; however, studies have confirmed the influence of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) on irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). We evaluated the association between SSRI use and subsequent IBS occurrence in a real-world setting. METHODS: A multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was adopted, and the National Health Insurance Service cohort claims database between 2010 and 2019 was used. Non-SSRI users were selected using the propensity score matching method. Subgroup analyses were performed using the point of use, cumulative dose, and duration of SSRI use. Additional analysis was performed using a control group without psychiatric medications. RESULTS: We included 2901 SSRI users and 2727 non-SSRI users. After adjusting covariates, the risk of developing IBS in SSRI users was 1.54 times that in non-SSRI users (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-2.33). The hazard ratio (HR) of the recent, heavy, and short-term user groups were 3.19 (95% CI: 2.03-4.99), 2.22 (95% CI: 1.50-3.29), and 4.83 (95% CI: 3.02-7.73), respectively, compared with that of non-users. In patients without a history of psychiatric medications, the risk of IBS incidence after SSRI use increased significantly (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.06-2.42), whereas HR was insignificant in patients with a history of psychiatric medications (HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 0.98-1.60). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of subsequent IBS occurrence following SSRI use was high in patients who initially took a heavy SSRI dose and those who did not have a history of psychiatric drug use.

Hepatitis C virus infection in patients undergoing surgery in a single tertiary academic center.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Lack of awareness disturbs proper care for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in patients undergoing surgery. We investigated the status of HCV screening, confirmation, and treatment in patients who underwent surgery. METHODS: Patients who underwent surgery at a tertiary academic center between 2019 and 2021 were eligible for this retrospective study. RESULTS: Between 2019 and 2021, 96 894 patients (40 121 males; 41.4%) who underwent surgery under general anesthesia were recruited. The median age of the participants was 55.0 years. Of the 83 920 (86.6%) patients who tested positive for anti-HCV antibodies, 576 (0.7%) showed positive results, with a higher proportion of patients with diabetes mellitus (32.6% vs 18.5%), hypertension (50.5% vs 28.6%), liver cirrhosis (13.2% vs 1.7%), and unfavorable laboratory test results when compared with those with negative results (all P < 0.05). HCV RNA was tested in 215 patients (37.3%), with a positivity rate of 20.5% (n = 44). Of the 44 patients, 42 (95.5%) were referred for antiviral treatment, and 29 (69.0%) were successfully treated with direct-acting antiviral therapy. HCV RNA confirmation rates were higher in the Department of Hepatobiliary and Transplant Surgery (76.6%) than in the other surgical departments (25.0-33.5%) (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of patients who were positive for anti-HCV antibodies and failed to receive proper management after surgery was not negligible. Increased awareness of HCV infection among surgeons through appropriate education may be required.

Liver Stiffness on Magnetic Resonance Elastography and the MEFIB Index and Liver-Related Outcomes in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Individual Participants.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is an accurate biomarker of liver fibrosis; however, limited data characterize its association with clinical outcomes. We conducted an individual participant data pooled meta-analysis on patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease to evaluate the association between liver stiffness on MRE and liver-related outcomes. METHODS: A systematic search identified 6 cohorts of adults with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease who underwent a baseline MRE and were followed for hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, and death. Cox and logistic regression were used to assess the association between liver stiffness on MRE and liver-related outcomes, including a composite primary outcome defined as varices needing treatment, ascites, and hepatic encephalopathy. RESULTS: This individual participant data pooled meta-analysis included 2018 patients (53% women) with a mean (± standard deviation) age of 57.8 (±14) years and MRE at baseline of 4.15 (±2.19) kPa, respectively. Among 1707 patients with available longitudinal data with a median (interquartile range) of 3 (4.2) years of follow-up, the hazard ratio for the primary outcome for MRE of 5 to 8 kPa was 11.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.03-17.1, P < .001) and for ≥ 8 kPa was 15.9 (95% CI: 9.32-27.2, P < .001), compared with those with MRE <5 kPa. The MEFIB index (defined as positive when MRE ≥3.3 kPa and Fibrosis-4 ≥1.6) had a robust association with the primary outcome with a hazard ratio of 20.6 (95% CI: 10.4-40.8, P < .001) and a negative MEFIB had a high negative predictive value for the primary outcome, 99.1% at 5 years. The 3-year risk of incident hepatocellular carcinoma was 0.35% for MRE <5 kPa, 5.25% for 5 to 8 kPa, and 5.66% for MRE ≥8 kPa, respectively. CONCLUSION: Liver stiffness assessed by MRE is associated with liver-related events, and the combination of MRE and Fibrosis-4 has excellent negative predictive value for hepatic decompensation. These data have important implications for clinical practice.

UNOS Down-Staging Criteria for Liver Transplantation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 25 Studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Down-staging is commonly used to select patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan criteria (MC) for liver transplantation (LT), but outcomes are heterogenous. We aimed to estimate pooled down-staging success rates, HCC recurrence, and overall survival (OS), stratified by criteria used for baseline tumor burden. METHODS: We searched Pubmed and EMBASE databases from inception until August 2021 for studies reporting down-staging success (reduction of tumor burden to within MC) and outcomes of adult HCC patients. In addition, we performed a pooled analysis using reconstructed individual participant data to obtain robust estimates for OS. RESULTS: We screened 1059 articles and included 25 articles involving 3997 patients. Overall, 55.16% (45.49%-64.46%) underwent successful down-staging, and 31.52% (24.03%-40.11%) received LT (by intention-to-treat analysis [ITT]). Among patients who received LT, 16.01% (11.80%-21.37%) developed HCC recurrence. Comparing studies that used the United Network for Organ Sharing Down-Staging (UNOS-DS) criteria versus studies beyond UNOS-DS or did not specify criteria, down-staging success (by ITT) was 83.21% versus 45.93%, P < .001; the proportion who received LT (by ITT) was 48.61% vs 28.60%, P = .030; and HCC recurrence (among patients who received LT) occurred in 9.06% versus 20.42%, P < .001. Among studies that used UNOS-DS criteria, ITT 1- and 5-year OS from the initiation of down-staging treatment was 86% and 58%, respectively, whereas 1- and 5-year post-LT OS was 94% and 74%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among studies that adhered to UNOS-DS criteria, down-staging was successful in four-fifths of patients, >50% received LT, and post-LT outcomes were excellent. These data provide clinical validation for the utilization of UNOS-DS criteria.

ALT Is Not Associated With Achieving Subcirrhotic Liver Stiffness and HCC During Entecavir Therapy in HBV-Related Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We investigated whether baseline and on-treatment alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels during entecavir (ETV) therapy are associated with achieving subcirrhotic liver stiffness (LS) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis. METHODS: We analyzed data from 347 treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related cirrhosis, who started ETV between 2006 and 2011 and were followed up for >5 years without developing HCC. The study outcomes were achieving subcirrhotic LS at 5 years of ETV, and risk of HCC development beyond 5 years of ETV. Subcirrhotic LS was defined as <12 kPa by transient elastography. RESULTS: After 5 years of ETV, 227 (65.4%) patients achieved subcirrhotic LS. During a median follow-up of 9.2 years, 49 (14.1%) patients developed HCC beyond 5 years of ETV. ALT levels at baseline, at 1 year of ETV therapy, and 5 years of ETV therapy were not associated with the probability of achieving subcirrhotic LS at 5 years of ETV therapy or risk of HCC development beyond 5 years of ETV therapy (all P > .05). Patients achieving subcirrhotic LS at 5 years of ETV therapy had significantly lower risk of HCC development than those who did not (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.64; P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline and on-treatment ALT levels were not associated with achieving subcirrhotic LS at 5 years of ETV therapy or with risk of HCC development beyond 5 years of ETV therapy in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis. Achieving subcirrhotic LS at 5 years of ETV therapy was independently associated with lower risk of HCC development beyond 5 years of ETV therapy.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence in Alcohol-Associated Cirrhosis: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol is one of the leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, pooled estimates of HCC incidence in alcohol-associated cirrhosis have not been evaluated systematically. We performed a pooled analysis of time-to-event data to provide robust estimates for the incidence of HCC in alcohol-associated cirrhosis. METHODS: Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched from inception to August 2021. Individual patient data were reconstructed from published Kaplan-Meier curves, and a pooled analysis of cumulative HCC incidence was performed using a random-effects model. RESULTS: We screened 5022 articles and included 18 studies (148,333 patients). In the pooled analysis, the cumulative incidence of HCC in alcohol-associated cirrhosis at 1, 5, and 10 years among studies that accounted for the competing risk of death without HCC was 1%, 3%, and 9%, respectively. A secondary analysis by traditional meta-analysis determined that the HCC incidence rate was higher in cohorts enrolled in a HCC surveillance program (18.6 vs 4.8 per 1000 person-years; P = .001) vs those who were not enrolled in a surveillance program. Meta-regression showed that diabetes, smoking, variceal bleeding, and hepatic decompensation were associated with a higher risk of HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis determined that the 5- and 10- year cumulative risk of HCC in alcohol-associated cirrhosis was 3% and 9%, respectively, with a higher incidence in cohorts that were enrolled in a HCC surveillance program. These data should be validated further in large prospective studies, and may have important implications for HCC screening and surveillance among patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

Comparable Mortality Between Asian Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Under Long-Term Antiviral Therapy vs Matched Control: A Population-Based Study.

INTRODUCTION: Antiviral therapy (AVT) substantially improved the prognosis for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Head-to-head comparisons of prognosis between treated patients with CHB and the general population are scarce. We directly compared the prognosis between Asian patients with CHB receiving AVT and the general population. METHODS: From the South Korean National Health Insurance Service database, patients with CHB receiving AVT ≥3 years, aged 40-64 years, who underwent health examinations between 2011 and 2012 (AVT-CHB group) were recruited. As a control, propensity score-matched general population was chosen among patients without CHB. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes were cardiovascular disease (CVD), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and all types of non-HCC malignancies. RESULTS: During follow-up (median 7.2 years), 26,467 and 75,469 individuals in the AVT-CHB group and matched general population were analyzed. The 5- and 7-year cumulative all-cause mortality rates were 0.40% and 1.0% for the AVT-CHB group vs 0.50% and 1.0% for the matched general population (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-1.10; P = 0.51). The AVT-CHB group had a lower risk of CVD than the matched general population (aHR 0.70, 95% CI: 0.62-0.79; P < 0.001). Although the AVT-CHB group was more likely to develop HCC than the matched general population (aHR 13.16, 95% CI: 10.90-15.89; P < 0.001), the non-HCC malignancy risks in the AVT-CHB group were comparable to the matched general population (aHR 1.05, 95% CI 0.98-1.13; P = 0.137). DISCUSSION: The AVT-CHB group had a similar risk of all-cause mortality and non-HCC malignancies and a lower risk of CVD than the matched general population.

Statin use is associated with better post-operative prognosis among patients with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The high postoperative recurrence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a significant challenge. Patient metabolic factors are potential disease modifiers and should be examined as risk factors for postoperative prognosis. Here, we assessed the association between long-term statin use and HCC recurrence after surgical resection of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC. METHODS: Patients who initially underwent curative resection for HBV-related HCC between 2005 and 2015 were recruited and followed up until December 2019. Patients were classified into statin user and non-statin user groups based on whether or not they had been prescribed statins for ≥2 years. The primary outcome was HCC recurrence, and the secondary outcome was liver-related mortality. The cumulative incidence by statin use was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: Among 5653 patients with a median 6.1 years of follow-up, HCC recurrence and liver-related mortality occurred in 1603 and 316 patients, respectively. The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC recurrence in the statin user group (15.9%) was significantly lower than that in the non-user group (21.3%; p = .019). From multivariable Cox regression analysis, statin use was significantly associated with a reduced risk of HCC recurrence (aHR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61-0.98; p = .035) and liver-related mortality (aHR 0.48, 95% CI: 0.25-0.90; p = .023). CONCLUSION: Long-term statin use was significantly associated with reduced risk of HCC recurrence and liver-related mortality after curative resection of HBV-related HCC.

Inhibition of Dickkopf-1 enhances the anti-tumor efficacy of sorafenib via inhibition of the PI3K/Akt and Wnt/ß-catenin pathways in hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Sorafenib improves the overall survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Dickkopf-1 (DKK1) is commonly overexpressed in HCC. In this study, we investigated whether the inhibition of DKK1 enhances the anti-tumor efficacy of sorafenib in HCC. METHODS: HCC cells were treated with sorafenib and WAY-262611, which is an inhibitor of DKK1. Transgenic mouse models were also developed using hydrodynamic tail vein injection. Mice were orally administered with sorafenib (32 mg/kg), WAY-262611 (16 mg/kg), or sorafenib + WAY-262611 for 10 days. Mechanisms of sorafenib and WAY-262611 were explored via western blotting, immunostaining, and RNA sequencing. RESULTS: DKK1 was significantly overexpressed in patients with HCC than in the healthy controls and patients with liver diseases except HCC (all P < 0.05). Compared with sorafenib alone, sorafenib + WAY-262611 significantly inhibited the cell viability, invasion, migration, and colony formation by promoting apoptosis and altering the cell cycles in HCC cells (all P < 0.05). Moreover, sorafenib + WAY-262611 decreased the p110α, phospho-Akt (all P < 0.05), active ß-catenin (all P < 0.05) and phospho-GSK-3ß (Ser9) expression levels, while increasing the phospho-GSK-3ß (Tyr216) expression levels compared with those in the sorafenib alone in vitro and in vivo. In addition, sorafenib + WAY-262611 inhibited tumor progression by regulating cell proliferation and apoptosis, significantly better than sorafenib alone in mouse models. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that DKK1 inhibition significantly enhances the anti-tumor efficacy of sorafenib by inhibiting the PI3K/Akt and Wnt/ß-catenin pathways via regulation of GSK3ß activity, suggesting a novel therapeutic strategy for HCC. Video Abstract.

Metabolic dysfunction associated fatty liver disease identifies subjects with cardiovascular risk better than non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the main cause of mortality in subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We investigated the association between CVD risk and metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) or NAFLD and the influence of significant liver fibrosis on the CVD risk. METHODS: Subjects who underwent a comprehensive medical check-up were recruited (2014-2019). Significant liver fibrosis was defined using NAFLD fibrosis score, fibrosis-4 index, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, or FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase score. High probability of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) was defined as ASCVD risk score > 10%. RESULTS: Of the study population (n = 78 762), 27 047 (34.3%) and 24 036 (30.5%) subjects had MAFLD and NAFLD respectively. A total of 1084 (4.0%) or 921 (3.8%) subjects had previous CVD history in MAFLD or NAFLD subgroup respectively. The previous CVD history and high probability of ASCVD were significantly higher in MAFLD or NAFLD subgroup with significant liver fibrosis than in the other groups (all p < .001). In multivariable analysis, MAFLD was independently associated with previous CVD history after adjusting for confounders (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.10, p = .038), whereas NAFLD was not (all p > .05). MAFLD (aOR = 1.40) or NAFLD (aOR = 1.22) was independently associated with high probability of ASCVD after full adjustment respectively (all p < .001). Significant liver fibrosis was independently associated with previous CVD history and high probability of ASCVD after adjustment in MAFLD or NAFLD subgroup respectively (all p < .05). CONCLUSION: MAFLD might better identify subjects with CVD risk than NAFLD. Fibrosis assessment might be helpful for detailed prognostication in subjects with MAFLD.

A machine learning model for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to overcome the prognostic performance limitations of conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk models. We established and validated an ML-based HCC predictive model optimized for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infections receiving antiviral therapy (AVT). METHODS: Treatment-naïve CHB patients who were started entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were enrolled. We used a training cohort (n = 960) to develop a novel ML model that predicted HCC development within 5 years and validated the model using an independent external cohort (n = 1937). ML algorithms consider all potential interactions and do not use predefined hypotheses. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients in the training cohort was 48 years, and most patients (68.9%) were men. During the median 59.3 (interquartile range 45.8-72.3) months of follow-up, 69 (7.2%) patients developed HCC. Our ML-based HCC risk prediction model had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.900, which was better than the AUCs of CAMD (0.778) and REAL B (0.772) (both p < .05). The better performance of our model was maintained (AUC = 0.872 vs. 0.788 for CAMD and 0.801 for REAL B) in the validation cohort. Using cut-off probabilities of 0.3 and 0.5, the cumulative incidence of HCC development differed significantly among the three risk groups (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Our new ML model performed better than models in terms of predicting the risk of HCC development in CHB patients receiving AVT.

M-PAST score is better than MAST score for the diagnosis of active fibrotic nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials enroll patients with active fibrotic nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (nonalcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD] activity score ≥ 4) and significant fibrosis (F ≥ 2); however, screening failure rates are high following biopsy. We developed new scores to identify active fibrotic NASH using FibroScan and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). METHODS: We undertook prospective primary (n = 176), retrospective validation (n = 169), and University of California San Diego (UCSD; n = 234) studies of liver biopsy-proven NAFLD. Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using FibroScan or magnetic resonance elastography (MRE), controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), or proton density fat fraction (PDFF), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were combined to develop a two-step strategy-FibroScan-based LSM followed by CAP with AST (F-CAST) and MRE-based LSM followed by PDFF with AST (M-PAST)-and compared with FibroScan-AST (FAST) and MRI-AST (MAST) for diagnosing active fibrotic NASH. Each model was categorized using rule-in and rule-out criteria. RESULTS: Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of F-CAST (0.826) and M-PAST (0.832) were significantly higher than those of FAST (0.744, p = 0.004) and MAST (0.710, p < 0.001). Following the rule-in criteria, positive predictive values of F-CAST (81.8%) and M-PAST (81.8%) were higher than those of FAST (73.5%) and MAST (70.0%). Following the rule-out criteria, negative predictive values of F-CAST (90.5%) and M-PAST (90.9%) were higher than those of FAST (84.0%) and MAST (73.9%). In the validation and UCSD cohorts, AUROCs did not differ significantly between F-CAST and FAST, but M-PAST had a higher diagnostic performance than MAST. CONCLUSIONS: The two-step strategy, especially M-PAST, showed reliability of rule-in/-out for active fibrotic NASH, with better predictive performance compared with MAST. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (number, UMIN000012757).

Noninvasive risk assessment of hepatic decompensation in patients with hepatitis B virus-related liver cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Hepatic decompensation is a major complication of liver cirrhosis. We validated the predictive performance of the newly proposed CHESS-ALARM model to predict hepatic decompensation in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis and compared it with other transient elastography (TE)-based models such as liver stiffness-spleen size-to-platelet (LSPS), portal hypertension (PH), varices risk scores, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and albumin-bilirubin-fibrosis-4 (ALBI-FIB-4). METHODS: Four hundred eighty-two patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis between 2006 and 2014 were recruited. Liver cirrhosis was clinically or morphologically defined. The predictive performance of the models was assessed using a time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). RESULTS: During the study period, 48 patients (10.0%) developed hepatic decompensation (median 93 months). The 1-year predictive performance of the LSPS model (tAUC = 0.8405) was higher than those of the PH model (tAUC = 0.8255), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC = 0.8168), ALBI (tAUC = 0.8153), CHESS-ALARM (tAUC = 0.8090), and variceal risk score (tAUC = 0.7990). The 3-year predictive performance of the LSPS model (tAUC = 0.8673) was higher than those of the PH risk score (tAUC = 0.8670), CHESS-ALARM (tAUC = 0.8329), variceal risk score (tAUC = 0.8290), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC = 0.7730), and ALBI (tAUC = 0.7451). The 5-year predictive performance of the PH risk score (tAUC = 0.8521) was higher than those of the LSPS (tAUC = 0.8465), varices risk score (tAUC = 0.8261), CHESS-ALARM (tAUC = 0.7971), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC = 0.7743), and ALBI (tAUC = 0.7541). However, there was no significant difference in the predictive performance among all models at 1, 3, and 5 years (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The CHESS-ALARM score was able to reliably predict hepatic decompensation in patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis and showed similar performance to the LSPS, PH, varices risk scores, ALBI, and ALBI-FIB-4.

The clinical effect of antiviral therapy in patients with hepatitis B virus-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable DNA.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Antiviral therapy (AVT) is the mainstay of hepatitis B virus (HBV) management. We investigated whether AVT improves the outcomes of HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable HBV-DNA. METHODS: Between 2000 and 2017, treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable HBV-DNA were recruited from two tertiary hospitals. The endpoints included death and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). RESULTS: A total of 429 patients were analyzed (50 and 379 patients in the AVT and non-AVT groups, respectively). Patients in the AVT group were significantly younger and had higher alanine aminotransferase and alpha-fetoprotein levels than those in the non-AVT group (all P < 0.05). During follow-up (median 49.6 months), 98 patients died and 105 developed HCC. The cumulative incidence rates of death (2.0%, 4.1%, and 6.4%, and 4.9%, 7.2%, and 10.2% at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years, respectively) and HCC (8.6%, 15.8%, and 26.4% vs 1.6%, 7.7%, and 24.4% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively) were statistically comparable between the AVT and non-AVT groups (all P > 0.05). Using Cox regression analysis, AVT was not significantly associated with death nor HCC (all P > 0.05). Similar results were observed after balancing baseline characteristics with inverse probability of treatment weighting. In the non-AVT group, the cumulative incidence rates of HBV-DNA detection at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years were 2.0%, 3.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Antiviral therapy did not attenuate the risk of death nor HCC in patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable HBV-DNA.

MAFLD might be better in identifying subjects with sarcopenia or cardiovascular risk than NAFLD: A nationwide study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Clinical features of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but not fulfilling the diagnostic criteria of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), remain unclear. We investigated the risk of sarcopenia and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in MAFLD and non-metabolic risk (MR) NAFLD. METHODS: Subjects were selected from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2008-2011. Liver steatosis was assessed using fatty liver index. Significant liver fibrosis was defined using fibrosis-4 index, categorized by age cut-offs. Sarcopenia was defined as the lowest quintile sarcopenia index. Atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk score > 10% was defined as high probability. RESULTS: A total of 7248 subjects had fatty liver (137 with non-MR NAFLD, 1752 with MAFLD/non-NAFLD, and 5359 with overlapping MAFLD and NAFLD). In non-MR NAFLD group 28 (20.4%) had significant fibrosis. The risk of sarcopenia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.71, 95% confidence index [CI] = 1.27-5.78) and high probability of ASCVD (aOR = 2.79, 95% CI = 1.23-6.35) was significantly higher in MAFLD/non-NAFLD group than in non-MR NAFLD group (all P < 0.05). The risk of sarcopenia and high probability of ASCVD was similar between subjects with and without significant fibrosis in non-MR NAFLD group (all P > 0.05). However, the risk was significantly higher in MAFLD group than in non-MR NAFLD group (aOR = 3.38 for sarcopenia and 3.73 for ASCVD; all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The risks of sarcopenia and CVD were significantly higher in MAFLD group but did not differ according to fibrotic burden in non-MR NAFLD group. The MAFLD criteria might be better for identifying high-risk fatty liver disease than the NAFLD criteria.

Prediction model of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients receiving antiviral therapy.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, which ultimately leads to liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a significant disease burden worldwide. Despite the use of antiviral therapy (AVT) using oral nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) with high genetic barriers, the risk of HCC development cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, bi-annual surveillance of HCC using abdominal ultrasonography with or without tumor markers is recommended for at-risk populations. For a more precise assessment of future HCC risk at the individual level, many HCC prediction models have been proposed in the era of potent AVT with promising results. It allows prognostication according to the risk of HCC development, for example, low-vs. intermediate-vs. high-risk groups. Most of these models have the advantage of high negative predictive values for HCC development, allowing exemption from biannual HCC screening. Recently, non-invasive surrogate markers for liver fibrosis, such as vibration-controlled transient elastography, have been introduced as integral components of the equations, providing better predictive performance in general. Furthermore, beyond the conventional statistical methods that primarily depend on multi-variable Cox regression analyses based on the previous literature, newer techniques using artificial intelligence have also been applied in the design of HCC prediction models. Here, we aimed to review the HCC risk prediction models that were developed in the era of potent AVT and validated among independent cohorts to address the clinical unmet needs, as well as comment on future direction to establish the individual HCC risk more precisely.