The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The World Health Organization has a mandate to compile and disseminate statistics on mortality, and we have been tracking the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic since the beginning of 20201. Reported statistics on COVID-19 mortality are problematic for many countries owing to variations in testing access, differential diagnostic capacity and inconsistent certification of COVID-19 as cause of death. Beyond what is directly attributable to it, the pandemic has caused extensive collateral damage that has led to losses of lives and livelihoods. Here we report a comprehensive and consistent measurement of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by estimating excess deaths, by month, for 2020 and 2021. We predict the pandemic period all-cause deaths in locations lacking complete reported data using an overdispersed Poisson count framework that applies Bayesian inference techniques to quantify uncertainty. We estimate 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period. There are wide variations in the excess death estimates across the six World Health Organization regions. We describe the data and methods used to generate these estimates and highlight the need for better reporting where gaps persist. We discuss various summary measures, and the hazards of ranking countries' epidemic responses.

Airway Tree Caliber and Susceptibility to Pollution-associated Emphysema: MESA Air and Lung Studies.

Rationale: Airway tree morphology varies in the general population and may modify the distribution and uptake of inhaled pollutants. Objectives: We hypothesized that smaller airway caliber would be associated with emphysema progression and would increase susceptibility to air pollutant-associated emphysema progression. Methods: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) is a general population cohort of adults 45-84 years old from six U.S. communities. Airway tree caliber was quantified as the mean of airway lumen diameters measured from baseline cardiac computed tomography (CT) (2000-2002). Percentage emphysema, defined as percentage of lung pixels below -950 Hounsfield units, was assessed up to five times per participant via cardiac CT scan (2000-2007) and equivalent regions on lung CT scan (2010-2018). Long-term outdoor air pollutant concentrations (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ⩽2.5 µm, oxides of nitrogen, and ozone) were estimated at the residential address with validated spatiotemporal models. Linear mixed models estimated the association between airway tree caliber and emphysema progression; modification of pollutant-associated emphysema progression was assessed using multiplicative interaction terms. Measurements and Main Results: Among 6,793 participants (mean ± SD age, 62 ± 10 yr), baseline airway tree caliber was 3.95 ± 1.1 mm and median (interquartile range) of percentage emphysema was 2.88 (1.21-5.68). In adjusted analyses, 10-year emphysema progression rate was 0.75 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.96%) higher in the smallest compared with largest airway tree caliber quartile. Airway tree caliber also modified air pollutant-associated emphysema progression. Conclusions: Smaller airway tree caliber was associated with accelerated emphysema progression and modified air pollutant-associated emphysema progression. A better understanding of the mechanisms of airway-alveolar homeostasis and air pollutant deposition is needed.