Modelling the radioactive contamination of commercial fish species in the Barents Sea following a hypothetical short-term release to the Stepovogo Bay of Novaya Zemlya.

A dynamic modelling of radionuclides accumulation in commercial species in the Barents Sea is performed for hypothetical SCR accident with the dumped submarine K-27 at the Stepovogo Bay. Box radioecological model is employed for calculating the radionuclides dynamics in water, bottom sediments and marine biota. The model takes into account the seasonal fish migrations in the Barents Sea. The model allows predicting the dynamic effects of the radionuclide transfer in fish in case of an accidental water contamination. Maximum 137Cs activity concentrations in bottom sediments from the eastern part of the Barents Sea could be reached as late as 5-6 years after the accidental release. Based on the results of model calculations, assessment was made of doses to humans from consumption of seafood contaminated after a hypothetical SCR accident with K-27 at the Stepovogo Bay. The peak activity concentration of the released 137Cs in fish from the Stepovogo Bay is calculated to be 109 Bq∙kg-1, 90Sr - 12 Bq∙kg-1; both estimates are below the permissible activity concentrations of these radionuclides in commercial fish. Predicted maximum annual dose from consumption of fish from the Stepovogo Bay is 47 ± 18 µSv∙year-1, the Barents Sea fish - less than 3∙10-6 µSv∙year-1.137Cs is the major dose contributor; it provides more than 99% to the annual dose Radiation risks from consumption of the Barents Sea commercial fish are evaluated to be negligible in case of a hypothetical SCR accident with the submerged submarine K-27 in Stepovogo Bay of Novaya Zemlya.

Model testing of radioactive contamination by 90Sr, 137Cs and 239,240Pu of water and bottom sediments in the Techa River (Southern Urals, Russia).

This paper presents results of testing models for the radioactive contamination of river water and bottom sediments by (90)Sr, (137)Cs and (239,240)Pu. The scenario for the model testing was based on data from the Techa River (Southern Urals, Russia), which was contaminated as a result of discharges of liquid radioactive waste into the river. The endpoints of the scenario were model predictions of the activity concentrations of (90)Sr, (137)Cs and (239,240)Pu in water and bottom sediments along the Techa River in 1996. Calculations for the Techa scenario were performed by six participant teams from France (model CASTEAUR), Italy (model MARTE), Russia (models TRANSFER-2, CASSANDRA, GIDRO-W) and Ukraine (model RIVTOX), all using different models. As a whole, the radionuclide predictions for (90)Sr in water for all considered models, (137)Cs for MARTE and TRANSFER-2, and (239,240)Pu for TRANSFER-2 and CASSANDRA can be considered sufficiently reliable, whereas the prediction for sediments should be considered cautiously. At the same time the CASTEAUR and RIVTOX models estimate the activity concentrations of (137)Cs and (239,240)Pu in water more reliably than in bottom sediments. The models MARTE ((239,240)Pu) and CASSANDRA ((137)Cs) evaluated the activity concentrations of radionuclides in sediments with about the same agreement with observations as for water. For (90)Sr and (137)Cs the agreement between empirical data and model predictions was good, but not for all the observations of (239,240)Pu in the river water-bottom sediment system. The modelling of (239,240)Pu distribution proved difficult because, in contrast to (137)Cs and (90)Sr, most of models have not been previously tested or validated for plutonium.

Assessment of permissible levels of radionuclides in soil for different types of land-use.

Permissible levels of radionuclides in soil were estimated for different human dose criteria. A variety of land-use scenarios, which could lead to human exposure, was considered and all reasonably likely human exposure pathways were analyzed. The obtained estimates are potentially useful for supporting the decision-making process on the possible use or remediation of contaminated territories.

Model testing using data on 137Cs from Chernobyl fallout in the Iput River catchment area of Russia.

Data collected for 10 years following the Chernobyl accident in 1986 have provided a unique opportunity to test the reliability of computer models for contamination of terrestrial and aquatic environments. The Iput River scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of the BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment Methods) programme. The test area was one of the most highly contaminated areas in Russia following the accident, with an average contamination density of 137Cs of 800,000 Bq m-2 and localized contamination up to 1,500,000 Bq m-2, and a variety of countermeasures that were implemented in the test area had to be considered in the modelling exercise. Difficulties encountered during the exercise included averaging of data to account for uneven contamination of the test area, simulating the downward migration and changes in bioavailability of 137Cs in soil, and modelling the effectiveness of countermeasures. The accuracy of model predictions is dependent at least in part on the experience and judgment of the participant in interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, and treatment of uncertainties.

Current and potential doses from Arctic seafood consumption.

Current collective and individual dose rates to humans are estimated from the consumption of seafood harvested in the Arctic Seas. Statistical data on catches are used for the dose assessment, as well as observed data (1991-1994) on the radioactivity of marine biota. The actual collective dose rates to the world population are estimated to be: 2.7-4.5 manSv/year due to consumption of seafood from the Barents Sea, and 0.03 manSv/year-due to seafood from the Kara Sea. The contribution of 137Cs to the collective dose rate is about 90%. Current individual dose rates to high-rate consumers are estimated to be: 2.6 x 10(-6) Sv/year due to seafood from the Barents Sea; and 4.2 x 10(-6) Sv/year-due to seafood from the Kara Sea. The future radiological impact of the radioactive waste (RW) disposals in the Kara Sea is simulated for the period over 1000 years, using the regional box model of the Arctic Seas. The model predictions are made for three hypothetical scenarios of long-term radionuclide releases, prepared within the framework of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project. The potential collective dose to world population truncated to 3000 AD is shown to be not higher than 0.13 manSv. The maximum individual dose rates from Arctic seafood consumption are estimated to be about 1.2 x 10(-7) Sv/year. The predicted doses are much smaller than the actual doses due to the current radioactive contamination of the Arctic Seas.

Using a bank of predatory fish samples for bioindication of radioactive contamination of aquatic food chains in the area affected by the Chernobyl accident.

From the analysis of experimental data on radioactive contamination of various fish, it is suggested that predatory fish specimens can be used as bioindicators of radionuclide accumulation in reservoir food chains of the Chernobyl emergency area. The increased content of cesium radionuclides were detected in the muscle tissue of predatory fish collected in various regions of the Chernobyl emergency area. In most of the water bodies studied, maximum contamination levels of predatory fish by radionuclides of cesium occurred in 1987-1988, whereas in 'nonpredatory' fish the concentration of cesium was maximum, as a rule, in the first year following the accident. The exposure doses of fish of various ecological groups and ages are estimated. The exposure doses of various population groups, using fish from contaminated water bodies, are also estimated. When forming the environmental data bank for the Chernobyl accident zone it is suggested that perch, pike-perch and pike be used as bioindicators of radioactive contamination of food chains.

Model testing using Chernobyl data: II. Assessment of the consequences of the radioactive contamination of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant cooling pond.

The "Cooling Pond" scenario is designed to test models for radioactive contamination of aquatic ecosystems, based on data for contamination of different aquatic media and biota due to fallout of radionuclides into the cooling pond of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Input data include characteristics of the cooling pond ecosystem (hydrological, hydrochemical, and hydrobiological conditions) and estimates of the amounts of 137Cs in the cooling pond. Predictions are requested in two stages: (1) calculations for 137Cs concentrations for comparison against actual measurements, including activities of 137Cs in the cooling pond water, in sediment layers, and in fish; and (2) calculations for which actual measurements are not available, including dose and risk estimates for aquatic biota and for humans following hypothetical consumption of contaminated biota. The latter calculations are intended to provide an opportunity for intercomparison among modelers of their results for a simulated assessment problem.

Environmental contamination and assessment of doses from radiation releases in the Southern Urals.

The Southern Urals in Russia was contaminated by radioactive discharges into the Techa River (1949-1956), the Kyshtym accident (1957), and the current releases and discharges from the Mayak Nuclear Materials Production Complex. In this paper, the consequences of radioactive contamination of the Ural region are analyzed. The current content of 90Sr in the components of food chains is as follows (Bq kg(-1) wet weight): potatoes, 0.2-6.7; grain, 0.5-12.6; milk, 0.2-6.3; beef, 0.2-1.7; lake water, 0.12-1.0; river water, 0.2-8.5; fish, 7-480; mushrooms, 400-1,100; and berries, 700-16,000. The content of 137Cs is as follows: potatoes, 0.5-3.8; grain, 0.3-2.9; milk, 0.2-4.5; beef, 0.3-2.6; lake and river water, 0.002-0.019; fish, 2-32; mushrooms, 110-1,600; and berries, 150. A major fraction of the dose to humans comes from the consumption of local food products, including natural ones, which have higher contamination levels than agricultural products. The average annual dose rates in contaminated areas are (0.5-4) x 10(-4) Sv y(-1), which is lower by a factor of 10(2)-10(4) than in the periods of "acute" exposure (1950-1951 and 1957-1958). Natural organisms received very high doses up to 200-800 Gy resulting from radioactive discharges into the Techa River and the radiation accident in 1957. In all cases, including the "acute" exposure followed by the chronic irradiation, the doses to biota were by a factor of 10-10(3) higher than those to humans.

[Trophic level equations and statistical mechanics of biocoeneses]. / Uravneniia dlia troficheskikh urovnei i statisticheskaia mekhanika biotsenozov

Equations for the biomasses of trophical levels are presented. Analytic solutions for biomasses of trophical levels and several species of biomasses are obtained near the stationary state. The distribution function for species of biomasses is built.

Dynamics of radiation exposure to marine biota in the area of the Fukushima NPP in March-May 2011.

Estimates of radiation dose rates are presented for marine biota in March-May 2011 in the coastal zone near Fukushima NPP, and in the open sea. Calculations of fish contamination were made using two methods: a concentration factor approach, and a dynamic model. For representative marine organisms (fish and molluscs) the radiation dose rates did not exceed the reference level of 10 mGy/day. At a distance 30 km from the NPP, in the open sea the radiation doses for marine biota were much lower than those in the coastal zone near the NPP. Comparative estimates are presented for radiation doses to aquatic organisms in the exclusion zones of the Eastern Urals Radioactive Trail, and the Chernobyl NPP.

Up-to-date concentrations of long-lived artificial radionuclides in the Tom and Ob rivers in the area influenced by discharges from Siberian chemical combine.

The Siberian Chemical Combine (SCC) is located in Seversk (formerly known as Tomsk-7) in the Tomsk Region of the Russian Federation. The main contribution of radionuclides in the SCC process water discharged into the Tom River was from the single-pass reactors, now removed from service (the last SCC reactor was shutdown on June 5, 2008). The data on the concentrations of (90)Sr, (137)Cs, (239,240)Pu and other artificial radionuclides in water, bottom sediments and flood-plain soils of the Tom and Ob rivers from Tomsk to the confluence of the rivers, are presented and discussed. The results of measurements carried out after shutdown of the last SCC single-pass reactor indicated no radiologically significant consequences of SCC activities for the studied water environment compartments. Contemporary activity concentrations of long-lived artificial radionuclides (3)H, (90)Sr, (137)Cs and (239,240)Pu in river water were below the intervention levels established by current regulations of the Russian Federation for these radionuclides. The results of (3)H analysis in water from the Tom and Samuska rivers demonstrated no inflow of contaminated formation water to surface water from the sites where liquid radioactive wastes of the SCC were injected below the surface. However, the density of flood-plain soil contamination by long-lived (137)Cs in the area influenced by SCC liquid discharges was higher than regional technogenic background. There were local flood-plain areas contaminated not only by (137)Cs, but also other gamma-emitters, such as (60)Co and (152)Eu.