Homogenisation for the monodomain model in the presence of microscopic fibrotic structures.

Computational models in cardiac electrophysiology are notorious for long runtimes, restricting the numbers of nodes and mesh elements in the numerical discretisations used for their solution. This makes it particularly challenging to incorporate structural heterogeneities on small spatial scales, preventing a full understanding of the critical arrhythmogenic effects of conditions such as cardiac fibrosis. In this work, we explore the technique of homogenisation by volume averaging for the inclusion of non-conductive micro-structures into larger-scale cardiac meshes with minor computational overhead. Importantly, our approach is not restricted to periodic patterns, enabling homogenised models to represent, for example, the intricate patterns of collagen deposition present in different types of fibrosis. We first highlight the importance of appropriate boundary condition choice for the closure problems that define the parameters of homogenised models. Then, we demonstrate the technique's ability to correctly upscale the effects of fibrotic patterns with a spatial resolution of 10 µm into much larger numerical mesh sizes of 100- 250 µm . The homogenised models using these coarser meshes correctly predict critical pro-arrhythmic effects of fibrosis, including slowed conduction, source/sink mismatch, and stabilisation of re-entrant activation patterns. As such, this approach to homogenisation represents a significant step towards whole organ simulations that unravel the effects of microscopic cardiac tissue heterogeneities.

Variability in electrophysiological properties and conducting obstacles controls re-entry risk in heterogeneous ischaemic tissue.

Ischaemia, in which inadequate blood supply compromises and eventually kills regions of cardiac tissue, can cause many types of arrhythmia, some life-threatening. A significant component of this is the effects of the resulting hypoxia, and concomitant hyperklaemia and acidosis, on the electrophysiological properties of myocytes. Clinical and experimental data have also shown that regions of structural heterogeneity (fibrosis, necrosis, fibro-fatty infiltration) can act as triggers for arrhythmias under acute ischaemic conditions. Mechanistic models have successfully captured these effects in silico. However, the relative significance of these separate facets of the condition, and how sensitive arrhythmic risk is to the extents of each, is far less explored. In this work, we use partitioned Gaussian process emulation and new metrics for source-sink mismatch that rely on simulations of bifurcating cardiac fibres to interrogate a model of heterogeneous ischaemic tissue. Re-entries were most sensitive to the level of hypoxia and the fraction of non-excitable tissue. In addition, our results reveal both protective and pro-arrhythmic effects of hyperklaemia, and present the levels of hyperklaemia, hypoxia and percentage of non-excitable tissue that pose the highest arrhythmic risks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

From ionic to cellular variability in human atrial myocytes: an integrative computational and experimental study.

Variability refers to differences in physiological function between individuals, which may translate into different disease susceptibility and treatment efficacy. Experiments in human cardiomyocytes face wide variability and restricted tissue access; under these conditions, computational models are a useful complementary tool. We conducted a computational and experimental investigation in cardiomyocytes isolated from samples of the right atrial appendage of patients undergoing cardiac surgery to evaluate the impact of variability in action potentials (APs) and subcellular ionic densities on Ca2+ transient dynamics. Results showed that 1) variability in APs and ionic densities is large, even within an apparently homogenous patient cohort, and translates into ±100% variation in ionic conductances; 2) experimentally calibrated populations of models with wide variations in ionic densities yield APs overlapping with those obtained experimentally, even if AP characteristics of the original generic model differed significantly from experimental APs; 3) model calibration with AP recordings restricts the variability in ionic densities affecting upstroke and resting potential, but redundancy in repolarization currents admits substantial variability in ionic densities; and 4) model populations constrained with experimental APs and ionic densities exhibit three Ca2+ transient phenotypes, differing in intracellular Ca2+ handling and Na+/Ca2+ membrane extrusion. These findings advance our understanding of the impact of variability in human atrial electrophysiology. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Variability in human atrial electrophysiology is investigated by integrating for the first time cellular-level and ion channel recordings in computational electrophysiological models. Ion channel calibration restricts current densities but not cellular phenotypic variability. Reduced Na+/Ca2+ exchanger is identified as a primary mechanism underlying diastolic Ca2+ fluctuations in human atrial myocytes.

Space-Limited Mitosis in the Glazier-Graner-Hogeweg Model.

The Glazier-Graner-Hogeweg (GGH) model is a cellular automata framework for representing the time evolution of cellular systems, appealing because unlike many other individual-cell-based models it dynamically simulates changes in cell shape and size. Proliferation has seen some implementation into this modelling framework, but without consensus in the literature as to how this behaviour is best represented. Additionally, the majority of published GGH model implementations which feature proliferation do so in order to simulate a certain biological situation where mitosis is important, but without analysis of how these proliferation routines operate on a fundamental level. Here, a method of proliferation for the GGH model which uses separate cell phenotypes to differentiate cells which have entered or just left the mitotic phase of the cell cycle is presented and demonstrated to correctly predict logistic growth on a macroscopic scale (in accordance with experimental evidence). Comparisons between model simulations and the generalised logistic growth model provide an interpretation of the latter's 'shape parameter', and the proliferation routine used here is shown to offer the modeller somewhat predictable control over the proliferation rate, important for ensuring temporal consistency between different cellular behaviours in the model. All results are found to be insensitive to the inclusion of active cell motility. The implications of these simulated proliferation assays towards problems in cell biology are also discussed.

A mathematical model for the induction of the mammalian ureteric bud.

Congenital abnormalities of the kidney and urinary tract collectively form the most common type of prenatally diagnosed malformations. Whilst many of the crucial genes that direct the kidney developmental program are known, the mechanisms by which kidney organogenesis is achieved is still largely unclear. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model for the localisation of the ureteric bud, the precursor to the ureter and collecting duct system of the kidney. The mathematical model presented fundamentally implicates Schnakenberg-like ligand-receptor Turing patterning as the mechanism by which the ureteric bud is localised on the Wolfian duct as proposed by Menshykaul and Iber (2013). This model explores the specific roles of regulatory proteins GREM1 and BMP as well as the domain properties of GDNF production. Our model demonstrates that this proposed pattern formation mechanism is capable of naturally predicting the phenotypical outcomes of many genetic experiments from the literature. Furthermore, we conclude that whilst BMP inhibits GDNF away from the budding site and GREM1 permits GDNF to signal, GREM1 also stabilises the effect of BMP on GDNF signalling from fluctuations in BMP sensitivity but not signal strength.

Digital twinning of the human ventricular activation sequence to Clinical 12-lead ECGs and magnetic resonance imaging using realistic Purkinje networks for in silico clinical trials.

Cardiac in silico clinical trials can virtually assess the safety and efficacy of therapies using human-based modelling and simulation. These technologies can provide mechanistic explanations for clinically observed pathological behaviour. Designing virtual cohorts for in silico trials requires exploiting clinical data to capture the physiological variability in the human population. The clinical characterisation of ventricular activation and the Purkinje network is challenging, especially non-invasively. Our study aims to present a novel digital twinning pipeline that can efficiently generate and integrate Purkinje networks into human multiscale biventricular models based on subject-specific clinical 12-lead electrocardiogram and magnetic resonance recordings. Essential novel features of the pipeline are the human-based Purkinje network generation method, personalisation considering ECG R wave progression as well as QRS morphology, and translation from reduced-order Eikonal models to equivalent biophysically-detailed monodomain ones. We demonstrate ECG simulations in line with clinical data with clinical image-based multiscale models with Purkinje in four control subjects and two hypertrophic cardiomyopathy patients (simulated and clinical QRS complexes with Pearson's correlation coefficients > 0.7). Our methods also considered possible differences in the density of Purkinje myocardial junctions in the Eikonal-based inference as regional conduction velocities. These differences translated into regional coupling effects between Purkinje and myocardial models in the monodomain formulation. In summary, we demonstrate a digital twin pipeline enabling simulations yielding clinically consistent ECGs with clinical CMR image-based biventricular multiscale models, including personalised Purkinje in healthy and cardiac disease conditions.

Recurrence quantification analysis for fine-scale characterisation of arrhythmic patterns in cardiac tissue.

This paper uses recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) combined with entropy measures and organization indices to characterize arrhythmic patterns and dynamics in computer simulations of cardiac tissue. We performed different simulations of cardiac tissues of sizes comparable to the human heart atrium. In these simulations, we observed four classic arrhythmic patterns: a spiral wave anchored to a highly fibrotic region resulting in sustained re-entry, a meandering spiral wave, fibrillation, and a spiral wave anchored to a scar region that breaks up into wavelets away from the main rotor. A detailed analysis revealed that, within the same simulation, maps of RQA metrics could differentiate regions with regular AP propagation from ones with chaotic activity. In particular, the combination of two RQA metrics, the length of the longest diagonal string of recurrence points and the mean length of diagonal lines, was able to identify the location of rotor tips, which are the active elements that maintain spiral waves and fibrillation. By proposing low-dimensional models based on the mean value and spatial correlation of metrics calculated from membrane potential time series, we identify RQA-based metrics that successfully separate the four different types of cardiac arrhythmia into distinct regions of the feature space, and thus might be used for automatic classification, in particular distinguishing between fibrillation driven by self-sustaining chaos and that created by a persistent rotor and wavebreak. We also discuss the practical applicability of such an approach.

Graph-based homogenisation for modelling cardiac fibrosis.

Fibrosis, the excess of extracellular matrix, can affect, and even block, propagation of action potential in cardiac tissue. This can result in deleterious effects on heart function, but the nature and severity of these effects depend strongly on the localisation of fibrosis and its by-products in cardiac tissue, such as collagen scar formation. Computer simulation is an important means of understanding the complex effects of fibrosis on activation patterns in the heart, but concerns of computational cost place restrictions on the spatial resolution of these simulations. In this work, we present a novel numerical homogenisation technique that uses both Eikonal and graph approaches to allow fine-scale heterogeneities in conductivity to be incorporated into a coarser mesh. Homogenisation achieves this by deriving effective conductivity tensors so that a coarser mesh can then be used for numerical simulation. By taking a graph-based approach, our homogenisation technique functions naturally on irregular grids and does not rely upon any assumptions of periodicity, even implicitly. We present results of action potential propagation through fibrotic tissue in two dimensions that show the graph-based homogenisation technique is an accurate and effective way to capture fine-scale domain information on coarser meshes in the context of sharp-fronted travelling waves of activation. As test problems, we consider excitation propagation in tissue with diffuse fibrosis and through a tunnel-like structure designed to test homogenisation, interaction of an excitation wave with a scar region, and functional re-entry.

Analysis of sloppiness in model simulations: Unveiling parameter uncertainty when mathematical models are fitted to data.

This work introduces a comprehensive approach to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in parameter values, constrained by the combination of prior beliefs and data. This approach identifies stiff parameter combinations strongly affecting the quality of the model-data fit while simultaneously revealing which of these key parameter combinations are informed primarily by the data or are also substantively influenced by the priors. We focus on the very common context in complex systems where the amount and quality of data are low compared to the number of model parameters to be collectively estimated, and showcase the benefits of this technique for applications in biochemistry, ecology, and cardiac electrophysiology. We also show how stiff parameter combinations, once identified, uncover controlling mechanisms underlying the system being modeled and inform which of the model parameters need to be prioritized in future experiments for improved parameter inference from collective model-data fitting.

Machine Learning Identification of Pro-arrhythmic Structures in Cardiac Fibrosis.

Cardiac fibrosis and other scarring of the heart, arising from conditions ranging from myocardial infarction to ageing, promotes dangerous arrhythmias by blocking the healthy propagation of cardiac excitation. Owing to the complexity of the dynamics of electrical signalling in the heart, however, the connection between different arrangements of blockage and various arrhythmic consequences remains poorly understood. Where a mechanism defies traditional understanding, machine learning can be invaluable for enabling accurate prediction of quantities of interest (measures of arrhythmic risk) in terms of predictor variables (such as the arrangement or pattern of obstructive scarring). In this study, we simulate the propagation of the action potential (AP) in tissue affected by fibrotic changes and hence detect sites that initiate re-entrant activation patterns. By separately considering multiple different stimulus regimes, we directly observe and quantify the sensitivity of re-entry formation to activation sequence in the fibrotic region. Then, by extracting the fibrotic structures around locations that both do and do not initiate re-entries, we use neural networks to determine to what extent re-entry initiation is predictable, and over what spatial scale conduction heterogeneities appear to act to produce this effect. We find that structural information within about 0.5 mm of a given point is sufficient to predict structures that initiate re-entry with more than 90% accuracy.

Inference of ventricular activation properties from non-invasive electrocardiography.

The realisation of precision cardiology requires novel techniques for the non-invasive characterisation of individual patients' cardiac function to inform therapeutic and diagnostic decision-making. Both electrocardiography and imaging are used for the clinical diagnosis of cardiac disease. The integration of multi-modal datasets through advanced computational methods could enable the development of the cardiac 'digital twin', a comprehensive virtual tool that mechanistically reveals a patient's heart condition from clinical data and simulates treatment outcomes. The adoption of cardiac digital twins requires the non-invasive efficient personalisation of the electrophysiological properties in cardiac models. This study develops new computational techniques to estimate key ventricular activation properties for individual subjects by exploiting the synergy between non-invasive electrocardiography, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging and modelling and simulation. More precisely, we present an efficient sequential Monte Carlo approximate Bayesian computation-based inference method, integrated with Eikonal simulations and torso-biventricular models constructed based on clinical CMR imaging. The method also includes a novel strategy to treat combined continuous (conduction speeds) and discrete (earliest activation sites) parameter spaces and an efficient dynamic time warping-based ECG comparison algorithm. We demonstrate results from our inference method on a cohort of twenty virtual subjects with cardiac ventricular myocardial-mass volumes ranging from 74 cm3 to 171 cm3 and considering low versus high resolution for the endocardial discretisation (which determines possible locations of the earliest activation sites). Results show that our method can successfully infer the ventricular activation properties in sinus rhythm from non-invasive epicardial activation time maps and ECG recordings, achieving higher accuracy for the endocardial speed and sheet (transmural) speed than for the fibre or sheet-normal directed speeds.

Quantitative analysis of tumour spheroid structure.

Tumour spheroids are common in vitro experimental models of avascular tumour growth. Compared with traditional two-dimensional culture, tumour spheroids more closely mimic the avascular tumour microenvironment where spatial differences in nutrient availability strongly influence growth. We show that spheroids initiated using significantly different numbers of cells grow to similar limiting sizes, suggesting that avascular tumours have a limiting structure; in agreement with untested predictions of classical mathematical models of tumour spheroids. We develop a novel mathematical and statistical framework to study the structure of tumour spheroids seeded from cells transduced with fluorescent cell cycle indicators, enabling us to discriminate between arrested and cycling cells and identify an arrested region. Our analysis shows that transient spheroid structure is independent of initial spheroid size, and the limiting structure can be independent of seeding density. Standard experimental protocols compare spheroid size as a function of time; however, our analysis suggests that comparing spheroid structure as a function of overall size produces results that are relatively insensitive to variability in spheroid size. Our experimental observations are made using two melanoma cell lines, but our modelling framework applies across a wide range of spheroid culture conditions and cell lines.

Slow Recovery of Excitability Increases Ventricular Fibrillation Risk as Identified by Emulation.

Purpose: Rotor stability and meandering are key mechanisms determining and sustaining cardiac fibrillation, with important implications for anti-arrhythmic drug development. However, little is yet known on how rotor dynamics are modulated by variability in cellular electrophysiology, particularly on kinetic properties of ion channel recovery. Methods: We propose a novel emulation approach, based on Gaussian process regression augmented with machine learning, for data enrichment, automatic detection, classification, and analysis of re-entrant biomarkers in cardiac tissue. More than 5,000 monodomain simulations of long-lasting arrhythmic episodes with Fenton-Karma ionic dynamics, further enriched by emulation to 80 million electrophysiological scenarios, were conducted to investigate the role of variability in ion channel densities and kinetics in modulating rotor-driven arrhythmic behavior. Results: Our methods predicted the class of excitation behavior with classification accuracy up to 96%, and emulation effectively predicted frequency, stability, and spatial biomarkers of functional re-entry. We demonstrate that the excitation wavelength interpretation of re-entrant behavior hides critical information about rotor persistence and devolution into fibrillation. In particular, whereas action potential duration directly modulates rotor frequency and meandering, critical windows of excitability are identified as the main determinants of breakup. Further novel electrophysiological insights of particular relevance for ventricular arrhythmias arise from our multivariate analysis, including the role of incomplete activation of slow inward currents in mediating tissue rate-dependence and dispersion of repolarization, and the emergence of slow recovery of excitability as a significant promoter of this mechanism of dispersion and increased arrhythmic risk. Conclusions: Our results mechanistically explain pro-arrhythmic effects of class Ic anti-arrhythmics in the ventricles despite their established role in the pharmacological management of atrial fibrillation. This is mediated by their slow recovery of excitability mode of action, promoting incomplete activation of slow inward currents and therefore increased dispersion of repolarization, given the larger influence of these currents in modulating the action potential in the ventricles compared to the atria. These results exemplify the potential of emulation techniques in elucidating novel mechanisms of arrhythmia and further application to cardiac electrophysiology.

Unlocking data sets by calibrating populations of models to data density: A study in atrial electrophysiology.

The understanding of complex physical or biological systems nearly always requires a characterization of the variability that underpins these processes. In addition, the data used to calibrate these models may also often exhibit considerable variability. A recent approach to deal with these issues has been to calibrate populations of models (POMs), multiple copies of a single mathematical model but with different parameter values, in response to experimental data. To date, this calibration has been largely limited to selecting models that produce outputs that fall within the ranges of the data set, ignoring any trends that might be present in the data. We present here a novel and general methodology for calibrating POMs to the distributions of a set of measured values in a data set. We demonstrate our technique using a data set from a cardiac electrophysiology study based on the differences in atrial action potential readings between patients exhibiting sinus rhythm (SR) or chronic atrial fibrillation (cAF) and the Courtemanche-Ramirez-Nattel model for human atrial action potentials. Not only does our approach accurately capture the variability inherent in the experimental population, but we also demonstrate how the POMs that it produces may be used to extract additional information from the data used for calibration, including improved identification of the differences underlying stratified data. We also show how our approach allows different hypotheses regarding the variability in complex systems to be quantitatively compared.