Post-pandemic transformations: How and why COVID-19 requires us to rethink development.

COVID-19 is proving to be the long awaited 'big one': a pandemic capable of bringing societies and economies to their knees. There is an urgent need to examine how COVID-19 - as a health and development crisis - unfolded the way it did it and to consider possibilities for post-pandemic transformations and for rethinking development more broadly. Drawing on over a decade of research on epidemics, we argue that the origins, unfolding and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic require analysis that addresses both structural political-economic conditions alongside far less ordered, 'unruly' processes reflecting complexity, uncertainty, contingency and context-specificity. This structural-unruly duality in the conditions and processes of pandemic emergence, progression and impact provides a lens to view three key challenge areas. The first is how scientific advice and evidence are used in policy, when conditions are rigidly 'locked in' to established power relations and yet so uncertain. Second is how economies function, with the COVID-19 crisis having revealed the limits of a conventional model of economic growth. The third concerns how new forms of politics can become the basis of reshaped citizen-state relations in confronting a pandemic, such as those around mutual solidarity and care. COVID-19 demonstrates that we face an uncertain future, where anticipation of and resilience to major shocks must become the core problematic of development studies and practice. Where mainstream approaches to development have been top down, rigid and orientated towards narrowly-defined economic goals, post-COVID-19 development must have a radically transformative, egalitarian and inclusive knowledge and politics at its core.

Understanding the roles of economy and society in the relative risks of zoonosis emergence from livestock.

The emergence of zoonotic infections that can develop into pathogens of pandemic potential is a major concern for public health. The risks of emergence and transmission relate to multiple factors that range from land use to human-non-human animal contacts. Livestock agriculture plays a potentially significant role in those risks, shaping landscapes and providing hosts that can act as the source or amplifiers of emergent pathogens. The relative risks will be contingent upon the nature of those systems, with comparisons often made between intensive, indoor, biosecure systems and more extensive, outdoor, insecure systems. Microbiological, ecological and veterinary sciences provide useful entry points in specifying and modelling some of the relative risks. Yet, they often do so with little regard for social science inputs and by making assumptions about social and economic conditions. In this article, we respond to recent analyses of relative risks by raising the importance of social and economic drivers of risk. We chart social science insights and research that materially alter the zoonotic risks associated with livestock production. Our purpose is to emphasize the requirement for full appreciation of the social, economic and political components of zoonotic and pandemic risk.

Rethinking Disease Preparedness: Incertitude and the Politics of Knowledge.

This paper argues for a rethinking of disease preparedness that puts incertitude and the politics of knowledge at the centre. Through examining the experiences of Ebola, Nipah, cholera and COVID-19 across multiple settings, the limitations of current approaches are highlighted. Conventional approaches assume a controllable, predictable future, which is responded to by a range of standard interventions. Such emergency preparedness planning approaches assume risk - where future outcomes can be predicted - and fail to address uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance - where outcomes or their probabilities are unknown. Through examining the experiences of outbreak planning and response across the four cases, the paper argues for an approach that highlights the politics of knowledge, the constructions of time and space, the requirements for institutions and administrations and the challenges of ethics and justice. Embracing incertitude in disease preparedness responses therefore means making contextual social, political and cultural dimensions central.

Epidemics and the Military: Responding to COVID-19 in Uganda.

The UN Security Council's response to Ebola in 2014 legitimised militarised responses. It also influenced responses to COVID-19 in some African countries. Yet, little is known about the day-to-day impacts for ordinary citizens of mobilising armies for epidemic control. Drawing on 18 months ethnographic research, this article analyses militarised responses to COVID-19 during, and following, two lockdowns at contrasting sites in Uganda: a small town in Pakwach district and a village in Kasese district. Both field sites lie close to the border of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Although the practice of health security varied between sites, the militarised response had more impact than the disease in these two places. The armed forces scaled back movement from urban conurbations to rural and peri-urban areas; while simultaneously enabling locally based official public authorities to use the proclaimed priorities of President Museveni's government to enhance their position and power. This led to a situation whereby inhabitants created new modes of mutuality to resist or subvert the regulations being enforced, including the establishment of new forms of cross-border movement. These findings problematise the widely held view that Uganda's response to COVID-19 was successful. Overall, it is argued that the on-going securitisation of global health has helped to create the political space to militarise the response. While this has had unknown effects on the prevalence of COVID-19, it has entrenched unaccountable modes of public authority and created a heightened sense of insecurity on the ground. The tendency to condone the violent practice of militarised public health programmes by international and national actors reflects a broader shift in the acceptance of more authoritarian forms of governance.

Vaccine anxieties, vaccine preparedness: Perspectives from Africa in a Covid-19 era.

Global debates about vaccines as a key element of pandemic response and future preparedness in the era of Covid-19 currently focus on questions of supply, with attention to global injustice in vaccine distribution and African countries as rightful beneficiaries of international de-regulation and financing initiatives such as COVAX. At the same time, vaccine demand and uptake are seen to be threatened by hesitancy, often attributed to an increasingly globalised anti-vaxx movement and its propagation of misinformation and conspiracy, now reaching African populations through a social media 'infodemic'. Underplayed in these debates are the socio-political contexts through which vaccine technologies enter and are interpreted within African settings, and the crucial intersections between supply and demand. We explore these through a 'vaccine anxieties' framework attending to both desires for and worries about vaccines, as shaped by bodily, societal and wider political understandings and experiences. This provides an analytical lens to organise and interpret ethnographic and narrative accounts in local and national settings in Uganda and Sierra Leone, and their (dis)connections with global debates and geopolitics. In considering the socially-embedded reasons why people want or do not want Covid-19 vaccines, and how this intersects with the dynamics of vaccine supply, access and distribution in rapidly-unfolding epidemic situations, we bring new, expanded insights into debates about vaccine confidence and vaccine preparedness.

Negotiating Intersecting Precarities: COVID-19, Pandemic Preparedness and Response in Africa.

This article shares findings on COVID-19 in Africa across 2020 to examine concepts and practices of epidemic preparedness and response. Amidst uncertainties about the trajectory of COVID-19, the stages of emergency response emerge in practice as interconnected. We illustrate how complex dynamics manifest as diverse actors interpret and modify approaches according to contexts and experiences. We suggest that the concept of "intersecting precarities" best captures the temporalities at stake; that these precarities include the effects of epidemic control measures; and that people do not just accept but actively negotiate these intersections as they seek to sustain their lives and livelihoods.

Time to put Ebola in context. Interview with Dr Melissa Leach.

Viruses that cause haemorrhagic fevers have been popularized by the media as fierce predators that threaten to devastate global populations. Professor Melissa Leach says there is much to learn from combining local and scientific knowledge in dealing with these deadly pathogens.

Access to health care and mortality of children under 5 years of age in the Gambia: a case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether traditional measures of access to health care (distance and travel time to a facility) and non-traditional measures (social and financial support indicators) are associated with mortality among children under 5 years of age in the Gambia. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study in a population under demographic surveillance. Cases (n = 140) were children under 5 years of age who died between 31 December 2003 and 30 April 2006. Each case was matched in age and sex to five controls (n = 700). Information was gathered by interviewing primary caregivers. The data were analysed using conditional logistic regression. FINDINGS: Of traditional measures of access, only rural versus urban/periurban residence was important: children from rural areas were more likely to die (OR: 4.9; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.2-20.2). For non-traditional measures, children were more likely to die if their primary caregivers lacked help with meal preparation (OR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.2-4.1), had no one to relax with (OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1-2.9), had no one who could offer good advice (OR: 23.1; 95% CI: 4.3-123.4), had little say over how earned money was spent (OR: 12.7; 95% CI: 1.3-127.6), were unable to cut spending for health care (OR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5-4.2) or had to carry out odd jobs to pay for the care (OR: 3.4; 95% CI: 2.1-5.5). A protective effect was observed when the caregiver had other children to care for (OR: 0.2; 95% CI: 0.1-0.5). CONCLUSION: Improving access to health-care for children in the Gambia and similar settings is not simply a matter of reducing travel time and distance to a health facility, but requires improvements in caregivers' support networks and their access to the financial resources they need.

New therapeutic landscapes in Africa: parental categories and practices in seeking infant health in the Republic of Guinea.

In considering African health care practice, it is usual to draw strong distinctions between biomedical and traditional practices, and between public and private health institutions. Whilst distinctions between traditional and biomedical, and between public and private medicine make sense from the vantage point of health professionals, we question how far these distinctions are pertinent in shaping health-seeking behaviour given experience of them. This paper argues that other distinctions are becoming far more important to African therapeutic landscapes to the ways that people evaluate the salience of different health providers to their problems. We draw on ethnographic research and illustrative evidence from 1550 'infant health biographies' from rural and urban areas in the Republic of Guinea, where 93% of health expenditure takes place outside the state sector. We outline the distinctions that inform parents' health-seeking practices here. These include distinctions between women's and children's health providers (at state health centres), and those that men frequent (private pharmacies); between familiar ailments with known therapies (whether self-treatment, biomedical or herbal), and unfamiliar ones requiring expert diagnostics (whether from Islamic healers, diviners or doctors); between illnesses treatable by injection, and those aggravated by injection; between types of payment; and between high quality/strong medicines, and poor quality/weak ones. As people engage with emergent therapeutic landscapes, relations of knowledge and expertise, and forms of social solidarity, are emerging with significant implications for potential pathways of health system development, how these are conceptualised, and the forms of citizenship and partnership they might involve.

Exploring health systems research and its influence on policy processes in low income countries.

BACKGROUND: The interface between research and policymaking in low-income countries is highly complex. The ability of health systems research to influence policy processes in such settings face numerous challenges. Successful analysis of the research-policy interface in these settings requires understanding of contextual factors as well as key influences on the interface. Future Health Systems (FHS): Innovations for Equity is a consortium conducting research in six countries in Asia and Africa. One of the three cross-country research themes of the consortium is analysis of the relationship between research (evidence) and policy making, especially their impact on the poor; insights gained in the initial conceptual phase of FHS activities can inform the global knowledge pool on this subject. DISCUSSION: This paper provides a review of the research-policy interface in low-income countries and proposes a conceptual framework, followed by directions for empirical approaches. First, four developmental perspectives are considered: social institutional factors; virtual versus grassroots realities; science-society relationships; and construction of social arrangements. Building on these developmental perspectives three research-policy interface entry points are identified: 1. Recognizing policy as complex processes; 2. Engaging key stakeholders: decision-makers, providers, scientists, and communities; and 3. Enhancing accountability. A conceptual framework with three entry points to the research-policy interface - policy processes; stakeholder interests, values, and power; and accountability - within a context provided by four developmental perspectives is proposed. Potential empirical approaches to the research-policy interface are then reviewed. Finally, the value of such innovative empirical analysis is considered. CONCLUSION: The purpose of this paper is to provide the background, conceptual framework, and key research directions for empirical activities focused on the research-policy interface in low income settings. The interface can be strengthened through such analysis leading to potential improvements in population health in low-income settings. Health system development cognizant of the myriad factors at the research-policy interface can form the basis for innovative future health systems.

Structural drivers of vulnerability to zoonotic disease in Africa.

This paper argues that addressing the underlying structural drivers of disease vulnerability is essential for a 'One Health' approach to tackling zoonotic diseases in Africa. Through three case studies-trypanosomiasis in Zimbabwe, Ebola and Lassa fever in Sierra Leone and Rift Valley fever in Kenya-we show how political interests, commercial investments and conflict and securitization all generate patterns of vulnerability, reshaping the political ecology of disease landscapes, influencing traditional coping mechanisms and affecting health service provision and outbreak responses. A historical, political economy approach reveals patterns of 'structural violence' that reinforce inequalities and marginalization of certain groups, increasing disease risks. Addressing the politics of One Health requires analysing trade-offs and conflicts between interests and visions of the future. For all zoonotic diseases economic and political dimensions are ultimately critical and One Health approaches must engage with these factors, and not just end with an 'anti-political' focus on institutional and disciplinary collaboration.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'.

Living with Bats: The Case of Ve Golokuati Township in the Volta Region of Ghana.

Transmission of zoonotic pathogens from bats to humans through direct and indirect contact with bats raises public apprehension about living close to bats. In the township of Ve Golokuati in Ghana, several "camps" of Epomophorus gambianus roost in fruit trees that provide ecosystems services for residents. This study explored human-bat interaction in the township and the potential risks of disease transmission from bats to humans. Data were derived through questionnaire administration and participatory appraisal approach involving focus group discussions, participatory landscape mapping, and transect walk. The study found that most human activities within the township, such as petty-trading, domestic chores, and children's outdoor recreation, exposed people to bats. Though there have been no reported cases of disease spillover from bats to humans from the perspective of residents and from medical records, respondents whose activities brought them closer to bats within the township were found to be more likely to experience fevers than those who do not interact with bats frequently. The study recommends education of community members about the potential risks involved in human-bat interactions and makes suggestions for reducing the frequent interactions with and exposure to bats by humans.

Integration: the key to implementing the Sustainable Development Goals.

On 25 September, 2015, world leaders met at the United Nations in New York, where they adopted the Sustainable Development Goals. These 17 goals and 169 targets set out an agenda for sustainable development for all nations that embraces economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental protection. Now, the agenda moves from agreeing the goals to implementing and ultimately achieving them. Across the goals, 42 targets focus on means of implementation, and the final goal, Goal 17, is entirely devoted to means of implementation. However, these implementation targets are largely silent about interlinkages and interdependencies among goals. This leaves open the possibility of perverse outcomes and unrealised synergies. We demonstrate that there must be greater attention on interlinkages in three areas: across sectors (e.g., finance, agriculture, energy, and transport), across societal actors (local authorities, government agencies, private sector, and civil society), and between and among low, medium and high income countries. Drawing on a global sustainability science and practice perspective, we provide seven recommendations to improve these interlinkages at both global and national levels, in relation to the UN's categories of means of implementation: finance, technology, capacity building, trade, policy coherence, partnerships, and, finally, data, monitoring and accountability.

Local disease-ecosystem-livelihood dynamics: reflections from comparative case studies in Africa.

This article explores the implications for human health of local interactions between disease, ecosystems and livelihoods. Five interdisciplinary case studies addressed zoonotic diseases in African settings: Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Kenya, human African trypanosomiasis in Zambia and Zimbabwe, Lassa fever in Sierra Leone and henipaviruses in Ghana. Each explored how ecological changes and human-ecosystem interactions affect pathogen dynamics and hence the likelihood of zoonotic spillover and transmission, and how socially differentiated peoples' interactions with ecosystems and animals affect their exposure to disease. Cross-case analysis highlights how these dynamics vary by ecosystem type, across a range from humid forest to semi-arid savannah; the significance of interacting temporal and spatial scales; and the importance of mosaic and patch dynamics. Ecosystem interactions and services central to different people's livelihoods and well-being include pastoralism and agro-pastoralism, commercial and subsistence crop farming, hunting, collecting food, fuelwood and medicines, and cultural practices. There are synergies, but also tensions and trade-offs, between ecosystem changes that benefit livelihoods and affect disease. Understanding these can inform 'One Health' approaches towards managing ecosystems in ways that reduce disease risks and burdens.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'.