Future anti-HDV treatment strategies, including those aimed at HBV functional cure.

HDV is a defective virus that uses the HBV surface antigen to enter hepatocytes. It is associated with an accelerated course of liver fibrosis progression and an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. Negative HDV RNA 24 weeks after the end of therapy has been proposed as an endpoint but late relapses make this endpoint suboptimal, hence HBsAg loss appears to be more appropriate. Current HBV antiviral agents have poor activity against HDV hence the search for improved therapy. Drugs only active against HDV, such as lonafarnib, have shown efficacy in combination with nucleoside analogues and peginterferon, but do not lead to HBsAg loss. HBsAg loss sustained 24 weeks after the end of therapy with negative HBV DNA is termed functional cure. Agents that are being investigated for functional cure include those that inhibit replication such as entry inhibitors, polymerase inhibitors and capsid assembly modulators but seldom lead to functional cure. Agents that reduce HBV antigen load such as RNA interference and inhibitors of HBsAg secretion are promising. Immunomodulators on their own seldom achieve functional cure, hence these agents in combination to assess the optimal combination are being investigated. Consequently, agents leading to functional cure of HBV are ideal for both HBV and HDV.

APASL-ACLF Research Consortium-Artificial Intelligence (AARC-AI) model precisely predicts outcomes in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We hypothesized that artificial intelligence (AI) models are more precise than standard models for predicting outcomes in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). METHODS: We recruited ACLF patients between 2009 and 2020 from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC). Their clinical data, investigations and organ involvement were serially noted for 90-days and utilized for AI modelling. Data were split randomly into train and validation sets. Multiple AI models, MELD and AARC-Model, were created/optimized on train set. Outcome prediction abilities were evaluated on validation sets through area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and class precision. RESULTS: Among 2481 ACLF patients, 1501 in train set and 980 in validation set, the extreme gradient boost-cross-validated model (XGB-CV) demonstrated the highest AUC in train (0.999), validation (0.907) and overall sets (0.976) for predicting 30-day outcomes. The AUC and accuracy of the XGB-CV model (%Δ) were 7.0% and 6.9% higher than the standard day-7 AARC model (p < .001) and 12.8% and 10.6% higher than the day 7 MELD for 30-day predictions in validation set (p < .001). The XGB model had the highest AUC for 7- and 90-day predictions as well (p < .001). Day-7 creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), circulatory failure, leucocyte count and day-4 sepsis were top features determining the 30-day outcomes. A simple decision tree incorporating creatinine, INR and circulatory failure was able to classify patients into high (~90%), intermediate (~60%) and low risk (~20%) of mortality. A web-based AARC-AI model was developed and validated twice with optimal performance for 30-day predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the AARC-AI model exceeds the standard models for outcome predictions in ACLF. An AI-based decision tree can reliably undertake severity-based stratification of patients for timely interventions.

Switching to or Add-on Peginterferon in Patients on Nucleos(t)ide Analogues for Chronic Hepatitis B: The SWAP RCT.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The optimal therapeutic strategy in nucleoside analogue (NA) experienced chronic hepatitis B (CHB) using peginterferon is still unclear; hence we explored a switch to or add-on peginterferon strategy versus continued NA. METHODS: We conducted a randomized controlled trial of CHB patients on NA >12 months with HBV DNA(-) randomized to switch or add-on peginterferon-alpha2b (1.5 µg/kg/weekly) for 48 weeks versus continuing NA (controls) (allocation 2:2:1; Clinicaltrial.gov: NCT01928511) in tertiary Singapore hospitals. The primary composite endpoint at week 72 was hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) loss or quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg) >1 log IU/mL reduction, and secondary endpoints were HBsAg loss, HBsAg seroconversion, qHBsAg <200 IU/mL, qHBsAg <100 IU/mL, HBV DNA(-), viral relapse, and safety. Analysis was by intention-to-treat (ITT). RESULTS: A total of 253 patients (controls 51, switch 103, add-on 99) were randomized. The primary ITT endpoint was achieved in 3.9% of controls, 33.3% of switch, and 26.7% of add-on (P < .0001, switch/add-on versus controls). HBsAg loss occurred in 0% of controls, 7.8% of switch, and 10.1% of add-on (ITT, P < .001, switch/add-on versus controls). HBeAg(+) patients on peginterferon had higher HBeAg loss than controls but poor HBsAg responses, whereas HBeAg(-) patients on peginterferon achieved better HBsAg responses than controls. Reduction in qHBsAg in HBeAg(+) was 0.14 log IU/mL versus 0.51 log IU/mL in HBeAg(-) (P < .0001) in peginterferon-treated patients. Clinical relapse was higher in switch (13.6% overall, 27% in HBeAg(+)) versus 1% add-on and 0% controls. Adverse events were typically interferon-related symptoms, with one death (myocardial infarction unrelated to therapy). CONCLUSIONS: ITT analysis showed that either peginterferon strategies were superior to NA for the primary endpoint and HBsAg loss, but add-on peginterferon is preferred to switch due to improved safety and similar efficacy. ClincialTrials.gov number: NCT01928511.

Analysis and Validation of Human Targets and Treatments Using a Hepatocellular Carcinoma-Immune Humanized Mouse Model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Recent development of multiple treatments for human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has allowed for the selection of combination therapy to enhance the effectiveness of monotherapy. Optimal selection of therapies is based on both HCC and its microenvironment. Therefore, it is critical to develop and validate preclinical animal models for testing clinical therapeutic solutions. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We established cell line-based or patient-derived xenograft-based humanized-immune-system mouse models with subcutaneous and orthotopic HCC. Mice were injected with human-specific antibodies (Abs) to deplete human immune cells. We analyzed the transcription profiles of HCC cells and human immune cells by using real-time PCR and RNA sequencing. The protein level of HCC tumor cells/tissues or human immune cells was determined by using flow cytometry, western blotting, and immunohistochemistry. The HCC tumor size was measured after single, dual-combination, and triple-combination treatment using N-(1',2-Dihydroxy-1,2'-binaphthalen-4'-yl)-4-methoxybenzenesulfonamide (C188-9), bevacizumab, and pembrolizumab. In this study, human immune cells in the tumor microenvironment were strongly selected and modulated by HCC, which promoted the activation of the IL-6/Janus kinase 2 (JAK2)/signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) signaling pathway in tumor cells and led to augmented HCC proliferation and angiogenesis by releasing angiogenic cytokines in humanized-immune-system mice with HCC. In particular, intratumor human cluster of differentiation-positive (hCD14+ ) cells could produce IL-33 through damage-associated molecular pattern/Toll-like receptor 4/activator protein 1, which up-regulated IL-6 in other intratumor immune cells and activated the JAK2/STAT3 pathway in HCC. Specific knockdown of the CD14 gene in human monocytes could impair IL-33 production induced by cell lysates. Subsequently, we evaluated the in vivo anti-HCC effect of C188-9, bevacizumab, and pembrolizumab. The results showed that the anti-HCC effect of triple-combination therapy was superior to that of single or dual treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Humanized-immune-system HCC mouse models are suitable for identifying targets from cancer and immune components and for testing combinational therapies.

Echocardiographic assessment of cardiovascular function and clinical outcomes in liver transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cardiovascular disease contributes to a high rate of morbidity and mortality after liver transplantation (LT). However, the progression of cardiac function and cardiac remodeling in LT recipients remains poorly understood. This study sought to evaluate the progression of cardiac function and structure in LT recipients and identify independent predictors of prognosis using echocardiography. METHODS: From 2009 to 2019, 178 adult LT recipients at a tertiary academic transplant center were retrospectively studied. Transthoracic echocardiograms 1-year pre- and post-LT were assessed. Primary outcomes were progression of systolic and diastolic function. Secondary outcomes included left ventricular remodeling, all-cause mortality, and heart failure readmission post-LT. Subgroup analyzes were performed for etiology of native liver disease. A multivariable model was constructed to examine independent predictors of outcomes. RESULTS: Systolic function significantly worsened, with reduction in stroke volume (45-37 ml/m2 , p < .001), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (65%-62%, p < .001) and cardiac index (3.00-2.60 L/min/m2 , p < .001). Conversely, there were significant improvements in diastolic indices, including tricuspid regurgitation Vmax (228-215 cm/s, p = .017), left atrial volume index (LAVI) (32-26 ml/m2 , p < .001) and right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP) (31-28 mmHg, p = .001). Additionally, patients had increased relative wall thickness (RWT) (p < .001) and decreased left ventricular end-diastolic dimension/body surface area (p < .001) post-LT. The independent predictors for all-cause mortality and heart failure were increased pre-LT mitral annular early diastolic velocity (HR 1.11, CI 1.02-1.22, p = .018), LAVI (HR 1.06, CI 1.02-1.11, p = .007) and decreased LVEF (HR .89, CI .82-.97, p = .006). The effect of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis on cardiovascular outcomes post-LT was largely comparable to that of Hepatitis B. CONCLUSION: This study showed reduced systolic and improved diastolic function in LT recipients and highlighted the utility of pre-LT echocardiogram in the prognostication and risk stratification of LT candidates.

Identifying Patients With Cirrhosis Who Might Avoid Screening Endoscopy Based on Serum Albumin and Bilirubin and Platelet Counts.

The presence of gastroesophageal varices is a major complication of portal hypertension associated with significant morbidity and mortality.1 The Baveno VI criteria state that patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa by transient elastography (TE) and platelet count >150,000/µL can avoid screening endoscopy for high-risk varix (HRV).2 However, because TE is not widely available, the Baveno VI criteria could not be applied in many clinical settings. As such, we aim to determine a concise clinical criterion as an alternative noninvasive tool to predict absence of HRV among patients with compensated cirrhosis to avoid screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD).

Poor Outcomes of Cirrhosis due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Compared With Hepatitis B After Decompensation With Ascites.

INTRODUCTION: Decompensation with ascites portends a poor prognosis in cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with hepatitis B virus (HBV) cirrhosis after decompensation with ascites. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study to evaluate the outcomes of patients with NASH and HBV cirrhosis who were admitted to hospital for first-onset ascites from January 1, 2004, to June 30, 2015. They were followed up until death, liver transplantation, or loss to follow up. RESULTS: Patients with NASH had lower median (interquartile range) Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (11 [9-14] vs 14 [11-17], P < 0.001). Over 60 months, patients with NASH cirrhosis had higher cumulative incidence of dilutional hyponatremia (P < 0.001) and refractory ascites (P = 0.028). They also had higher cumulative incidence of cirrhosis-related deaths and liver transplantation compared with HBV cirrhosis (65.7%; [95% confidence interval (CI) 53.6-75.4] vs 42.5% [95% CI 32.4-55.2], P = 0.008). Multivariable competing risk analysis showed that NASH (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 1.88 [95% CI 1.14-3.11], P = 0.014), non-Chinese ethnicity (sHR 1.63 [95% CI 1.06-2.50], P = 0.027), history of hepatocellular carcinoma (sHR 1.76 [95% CI 1.05-2.95], P = 0.033), estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (sHR 1.70 [95% CI 1.09-2.65], P = 0.020), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score ≥15 (sHR 3.26 [95% CI 2.11-5.05], P < 0.001) were independent predictors of poor transplant-free survival. DISCUSSION: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH had much poorer prognosis compared with HBV with more complications and greater healthcare resource utilization. Greater awareness is necessary for early diagnosis of NASH before decompensation.

Impact of metabolic risk factors on the severity and outcome of patients with alcohol-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic risk factors may impact the severity and outcome of alcoholic liver disease. The present study evaluated this effect in patients with alcohol-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). METHODOLOGY: One thousand two hundred and sixteen prospectively enrolled patients with ACLF (males 98%, mean age 42.5 ± 9.4 years, mean CTP, MELD and AARC scores of 12 ± 1.4, 29.7 ± 7 and 9.8 ± 2 respectively) from the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database were analysed retrospectively. Patients with or without metabolic risk factors were compared for severity (CTP, MELD, AARC scores) and day 30 and 90 mortality. Information on overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension and dyslipidaemia were available in 1028 (85%), 1019 (84%), 1017 (84%) and 965 (79%) patients respectively. RESULTS: Overall, 392 (32%) patients died at day 30 and 528 (43%) at day 90. Overweight/obesity, T2DM, hypertension and dyslipidaemia were present in 154 (15%), 142 (14%), 66 (7%) and 141 (15%) patients, respectively, with no risk factors in 809 (67%) patients. Patients with overweight/obesity had higher MELD scores (30.6 ± 7.1 vs 29.2 ± 6.9, P = .007) and those with dyslipidaemia had higher AARC scores (10.4 ± 1.2 vs 9.8 ± 2, P = .014). Overweight/obesity was associated with increased day 30 mortality (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.06-2.24, P = .023). None of other metabolic risk factors, alone or in combination, had any impact on disease severity or mortality. On multivariate analysis, overweight or obesity was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (aHR 1.91, 95% CI 1.41-2.59, P < .001), independent of age, CTP, MELD and AARC scores. CONCLUSION: Overweight/obesity and dyslipidaemia increase the severity of alcohol-associated ACLF, and the former also increases the short-term mortality in these patients.

Drug-Induced Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Asian Patients.

OBJECTIVES: Acute insults from viruses, infections, or alcohol are established causes of decompensation leading to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Information regarding drugs as triggers of ACLF is lacking. We examined data regarding drugs producing ACLF and analyzed clinical features, laboratory characteristics, outcome, and predictors of mortality in patients with drug-induced ACLF. METHODS: We identified drugs as precipitants of ACLF among prospective cohort of patients with ACLF from the Asian Pacific Association of Study of Liver (APASL) ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database. Drugs were considered precipitants after exclusion of known causes together with a temporal association between exposure and decompensation. Outcome was defined as death from decompensation. RESULTS: Of the 3,132 patients with ACLF, drugs were implicated as a cause in 329 (10.5%, mean age 47 years, 65% men) and other nondrug causes in 2,803 (89.5%) (group B). Complementary and alternative medications (71.7%) were the commonest insult, followed by combination antituberculosis therapy drugs (27.3%). Alcoholic liver disease (28.6%), cryptogenic liver disease (25.5%), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (16.7%) were common causes of underlying liver diseases. Patients with drug-induced ACLF had jaundice (100%), ascites (88%), encephalopathy (46.5%), high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) (30.2), and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (12.1). The overall 90-day mortality was higher in drug-induced (46.5%) than in non-drug-induced ACLF (38.8%) (P = 0.007). The Cox regression model identified arterial lactate (P < 0.001) and total bilirubin (P = 0.008) as predictors of mortality. DISCUSSION: Drugs are important identifiable causes of ACLF in Asia-Pacific countries, predominantly from complementary and alternative medications, followed by antituberculosis drugs. Encephalopathy, bilirubin, blood urea, lactate, and international normalized ratio (INR) predict mortality in drug-induced ACLF.

Patterns of mutation within an emerging endemic lineage of HEV-3a.

The hepatitis E virus can cause chronic infections in immuno-suppressed patients, and cases have been on the rise globally. Viral mutations during such infections are difficult to characterize. We deep-sequenced viral populations from 15 immunocompromised patients with chronic HEV to identify the viral lineage and describe viral mutational hotspots within and across patients. A total of 21 viral RNA samples were collected between 2012 and 2017 from a single hospital in Singapore. Sequences covering a total of 3894 bp of the HEV genome were obtained. Phylogenetic analyses identified all sequences as belonging to the HEV-3a sub-clade and clearly indicate a unique local lineage. Deep sequencing reveals variable viral population complexity during infections. Comparisons of viral samples from the same patients spaced 2-19 months apart revealed rapid nucleotide replacements in the dominant viral sequence in both ribavirin treated and treatment-naive patients. Mutational hotspots were identified within ORF3 and the PCP/HVR domain of ORF1.

Development of a new patient-derived xenograft humanised mouse model to study human-specific tumour microenvironment and immunotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: As the current therapeutic strategies for human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been proven to have limited effectiveness, immunotherapy becomes a compelling way to tackle the disease. We aim to provide humanised mouse (humice) models for the understanding of the interaction between human cancer and immune system, particularly for human-specific drug testing. DESIGN: Patient-derived xenograft tumours are established with type I human leucocyte antigen matched human immune system in NOD-scid Il2rg-/- (NSG) mice. The longitudinal changes of the tumour and immune responses as well as the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors are investigated. RESULTS: Similar to the clinical outcomes, the human immune system in our model is educated by the tumour and exhibits exhaustion phenotypes such as a significant declination of leucocyte numbers, upregulation of exhaustion markers and decreased the production of human proinflammatory cytokines. Notably, cytotoxic immune cells decreased more rapidly compared with other cell types. Tumour infiltrated T cells have much higher expression of exhaustion markers and lower cytokine production compared with peripheral T cells. In addition, tumour-associated macrophages and myeloid-derived suppressor cells are found to be highly enriched in the tumour microenvironment. Interestingly, the tumour also changes gene expression profiles in response to immune responses by upregulating immune checkpoint ligands. Most importantly, in contrast to the NSG model, our model demonstrates both therapeutic and side effects of immune checkpoint inhibitors pembrolizumab and ipilimumab. CONCLUSIONS: Our work provides a model for immune-oncology study and a useful parallel-to-human platform for anti-HCC drug testing, especially immunotherapy.

Pyrosequencing method for sensitive detection of HBV drug resistance mutations.

Hepatitis B (HBV) drug resistance assay is important for guiding therapy after the development of virologic breakthrough for patients receiving nucleoside/-tide analog therapy. However, the existing genotyping tools are either costly or lack sensitivity to detect mixed genotypes, and an improved method of resistant mutation detection is needed. An assay protocol for clinical application using pyrosequencing method was developed, capable of detecting all known validated HBV polymerase gene mutations that impart resistance to lamivudine, adefovir, tenofovir, and entecavir. Sixty-eight serum samples with known HBV resistance genotypes, previously tested with either Sanger sequencing assay or commercial line probe assay, were used for validation. Where there were discrepancies between the two methods, clonal sequencing by Sanger's method was used for confirmation. The modified pyrosequencing method accurately identified all the cloned polymerase genotypes and was able to distinguish as little as 5% of the mutant populations. This assay can be performed on serum sample with HBV DNA as low as 13.5 IU/mL. The cost per test was less than existing commercial assay. HBV drug resistance pyrosequencing assay was accurate, more sensitive and cheaper compared with the existing methods. It can detect minor populations of drug-resistant clones earlier, before the drug resistant clones become dominant, allowing the opportunity for an earlier change of therapy.

Current endoscopic strategies for managing large bile duct stones.

Common bile duct stones are a relatively common occurrence and can often lead to devastating complications. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography was introduced in the 1970s for management of common bile duct stones. Most common bile duct stones can be removed with simple techniques such as endoscopic sphincterotomy and balloon trawling. However, large bile duct stones continue to pose some difficulty in achieving complete extraction. In this article, we will review some of the established techniques such as the use of endoscopic papillary large balloon dilatation, mechanical lithotripsy, and cholangioscopy-assisted techniques. We will look at the recent literature to help clarify the particular methods and answer some of the questions surrounding these methods.

Chronic Infection With Camelid Hepatitis E Virus in a Liver Transplant Recipient Who Regularly Consumes Camel Meat and Milk.

There have been increasing reports of food-borne zoonotic transmission of hepatitis E virus (HEV) genotype 3, which causes chronic infections in immunosuppressed patients. We performed phylogenetic analyses of the HEV sequence (partial and full-length) from 1 patient from the Middle East who underwent liver transplantation, and compared it with other orthohepevirus A sequences. We found the patient to be infected by camelid HEV. This patient regularly consumed camel meat and milk, therefore camelid HEV, which is genotype 7, might infect human beings. Our finding links consumption of camel-derived food products to post-transplantation hepatitis E, which, if detected at early stages, can be cured with antiviral therapy and reduced administration of immunosuppressive agents.

Development of predisposition, injury, response, organ failure model for predicting acute kidney injury in acute on chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: There is limited data on predictors of acute kidney injury in acute on chronic liver failure. We developed a PIRO model (Predisposition, Injury, Response, Organ failure) for predicting acute kidney injury in a multicentric cohort of acute on chronic liver failure patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data of 2360 patients from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) was analysed. Multivariate logistic regression model (PIRO score) was developed from a derivation cohort (n=1363) which was validated in another prospective multicentric cohort of acute on chronic liver failure patients (n=997). RESULTS: Factors significant for P component were serum creatinine[(≥2 mg/dL)OR 4.52, 95% CI (3.67-5.30)], bilirubin [(<12 mg/dL,OR 1) vs (12-30 mg/dL,OR 1.45, 95% 1.1-2.63) vs (≥30 mg/dL,OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.2)], serum potassium [(<3 mmol/LOR-1) vs (3-4.9 mmol/L,OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.05-1.97) vs (≥5 mmol/L,OR 4.34, 95% CI 1.67-11.3)] and blood urea (OR 3.73, 95% CI 2.5-5.5); for I component nephrotoxic medications (OR-9.86, 95% CI 3.2-30.8); for R component,Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome,(OR-2.14, 95% CI 1.4-3.3); for O component, Circulatory failure (OR-3.5, 95% CI 2.2-5.5). The PIRO score predicted acute kidney injury with C-index of 0.95 and 0.96 in the derivation and validation cohort. The increasing PIRO score was also associated with mortality (P<.001) in both the derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The PIRO model identifies and stratifies acute on chronic liver failure patients at risk of developing acute kidney injury. It reliably predicts mortality in these patients, underscoring the prognostic significance of acute kidney injury in patients with acute on chronic liver failure.

Increased Survival for Patients With Cirrhosis and Organ Failure in Liver Intensive Care and Validation of the Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Scoring System.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: During the past decade, survival has increased among patients admitted to general intensive care units, but it is not clear if it has increased for patients admitted with cirrhosis and organ failure. The chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) recently was developed as an adaptation to the SOFA to predict outcomes of patients, but requires validation. We investigated changes in outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and organ failure since 2000, compared the abilities of SOFA and CLIF-SOFA to predict patient survival, and validated the CLIF-SOFA system. METHODS: In a retrospective study, we collected data from 971 patients (median age, 52 y; age range, 16-90 y; 62% male) with cirrhosis (54% alcohol associated, 12% viral, and 34% other causes). The patients were admitted under emergency conditions from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010, to a liver intensive therapy unit in the United Kingdom. Patient survival while in the hospital was compared with measures of illness severity, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores, SOFA scores, and CLIF-SOFA scores. RESULTS: Patients had a median APACHE II score of 21 (range, 5-50) and a median MELD score of 23 (range, 6-40). The median APACHE II score at admission decreased from 23 to 22 over the study period (P < .001), whereas the median MELD score at admission decreased from 23 to 18 (P < .001). Overall survival until hospital discharge was 51%; this value increased from 40% in 2000 to 63% in 2010 (P < .001). The unadjusted odds ratio for change in mortality/year was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.91; P < .001). The APACHE II score adjusted odds ratio for mortality was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.93; P < .001). The etiology of cirrhosis was not associated with a significant difference in survival. CLIF-SOFA and SOFA scores at the time of admission predicted patient survival with area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) values of 0.813 and 0.799, respectively; the scores at 48 hours after admission predicted survival with AUROC values of 0.853 and 0.840, and scores after 1 week predicted survival with AUROC values of 0.842 and 0.844, respectively. These AUROC values were higher than those obtained from APACHE II or MELD scores. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of patients with cirrhosis who survived after admission to intensive care increased from 2000 to 2010. SOFA and CLIF-SOFA scores during the first week of critical care appear to have similar abilities to predict patient survival.

Hepatitis B immunoprophylaxis failure and the presence of hepatitis B surface gene mutants in the affected children.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is usually vertically transmitted from the mother to child during birth in Asian countries. Despite immunization, immunoprophylaxis failure is well-documented. The aim of the study was to study immunoprophylaxis failure rate in the cohort of infants delivered by chronic HBV-infected mothers and to determine risk factors for failure. This was an observational study involving chronic hepatitis B infected mothers seen at a tertiary care center in Singapore between June 2009 and December 2013. Infants born to these mothers were recruited after they had completed the recommended vaccination schedule. Serological testing for the children was performed 3 months after completion of the last dose of vaccine. HBV surface gene sequencing was carried out if HBV DNA was detectable in the children. Among the 161 mothers enrolled, most were HBeAg negative. HBeAg positive mothers were younger and had a significantly higher viral load (6.5 log) as compared to HBeAg negative mothers (1.35 log) (P < 0.001). Four children (2.6%) were found to have immunoprophylaxis failure. Two occurred in children delivered by mothers with extremely high viral load of more than 5 × 10(7) IU/ml. HBV surface gene mutations were detected in most children (3 out of 4) with immunoprophylaxis failure. The overall effectiveness of the hepatitis B vaccination program was high. High maternal viral load and presence of surface gene mutants may be potential contributors.

Meta-analysis: Prevalence and impact of alcohol abstinence in alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Although alcohol abstinence may be an effective intervention for alcohol-associated cirrhosis, its association with prognosis has not been systematically assessed or quantified. AIMS: To determine the prevalence of alcohol abstinence, factors associated with alcohol abstinence and the impact of abstinence on morbidity and overall survival in people with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. METHODS: We searched Medline and Embase from inception to 15 April 2023 for prospective and retrospective cohort studies describing alcohol abstinence in people with known alcohol-associated cirrhosis. Meta-analysis of proportions for pooled estimates was performed. The method of inverse variance, employing a random-effects model, was used to pool the hazard ratio (HR) comparing outcomes of abstinent against non-abstinent individuals with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. RESULTS: We included 19 studies involving 18,833 people with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. The prevalence of alcohol abstinence was 53.8% (CI: 44.6%-62.7%). Over a mean follow-up duration of 48.6 months, individuals who continued to consume alcohol had significantly lower overall survival compared to those who were abstinent (HR: 0.611, 95% CI: 0.506-0.738). These findings remained consistent in sensitivity/subgroup analysis for the presence of decompensation, study design and studies that assessed abstinence throughout follow-up. Alcohol abstinence was associated with a significantly lower risk of hepatic decompensation (HR: 0.612, 95% CI: 0.473-0.792). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol abstinence is associated with substantial improvement in overall survival in alcohol-associated cirrhosis. However, only half of the individuals with known alcohol-associated cirrhosis are abstinent.

Quantitative HBeAg is a strong predictor of HBeAg loss among patients receiving pegylated interferon.

BACKGROUND: HBeAg loss is an important endpoint for antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B (CHB), however there are no reliable biomarkers to identify patients who will respond to the addition of pegylated interferon to nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy. AIM: To evaluate the use of serum biomarkers to predict HBeAg loss. METHODS: HBeAg positive CHB participants on NAs who switched-to or added-on 48 weeks pegylated interferon alpha2b (clinicaltrial.gov NCT01928511) were evaluated at week 72 for HBeAg loss. The predictive ability of qHBeAg, qHBsAg, HBV RNA and clinical variables for HBeAg loss were investigated. RESULTS: HBeAg loss occurred in 15/55 (27.3%) participants who completed 48 weeks of pegylated interferon. There was a lower baseline qHBeAg (1.18 IU/mL [2.27] versus 10.04 IU/mL [24.87], P = 0.007) among participants who lost HBeAg. Baseline qHBeAg (OR = 0.15, 95% CI 0.03-0.66, P = 0.01) and detectable HBV DNA at baseline (OR = 25.00, 95% CI 1.67-374.70, P = 0.02) were independent predictors of HBeAg loss. In addition, on-treatment qHBeAg was also a strong predictor of HBeAg loss (OR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.18-0.81, P = 0.012). The models combining detectable baseline HBV DNA with baseline (C-statistic 0.82) and on-treatment (C-statistic 0.83) had good accuracy for predicting HBeAg loss. A rise in qHBeAg ≥ 10 IU/ml was a predictor of flare (ALT ≥ 120 U/ml) on univariable analysis but not after adjustment for treatment arm. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline and on-treatment qHBeAg is a useful biomarker that can identify participants on NA therapy who may benefit from adding or switching to pegylated interferon.

Expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of end-stage liver disease complicated by infections.

End-stage liver disease (ESLD) is a life-threatening clinical syndrome and when complicated with infection the mortality is markedly increased. In patients with ESLD, bacterial or fungal infection can induce or aggravate the occurrence or progression of liver decompensation. Consequently, infections are among the most common complications of disease deterioration. There is an overwhelming need for standardized protocols for early diagnosis and appropriate management for patients with ESLD complicated by infections. Asia Pacific region has the largest number of ESLD patients, due to hepatitis B and the growing population of alcohol and NAFLD. Concomitant infections not only add to organ failure and high mortality but also to financial and healthcare burdens. This consensus document assembled up-to-date knowledge and experience from colleagues across the Asia-Pacific region, providing data on the principles as well as evidence-based current working protocols and practices for the diagnosis and treatment of patients with ESLD complicated by infections.