Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria.

Environmental and socio-economic developments induce land-use changes with potentially negative impacts on human well-being. To counteract undesired developments, a profound understanding of the complex relationships between drivers, land use, and ecosystem services is needed. Yet, national studies examining extended time periods are still rare. Based on the Special Report on land use, land management and climate change by the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), we use the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to (1) identify the main drivers of land-use change, (2) describe past and future land-use changes in Austria between 1950 and 2100, (3) report related impacts on ecosystem services, and (4) discuss management responses. Our findings indicate that socio-economic drivers (e.g., economic growth, political systems, and technological developments) have influenced past land-use changes the most. The intensification of agricultural land use and urban sprawl have primarily led to declining ecosystem services in the lowlands. In mountain regions, the abandonment of mountain grassland has prompted a shift from provisioning to regulating services. However, simulations indicate that accelerating climate change will surpass socio-economic drivers in significance towards the end of this century, particularly in intensively used agricultural areas. Although climate change-induced impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain, it can be expected that the range of land-use management options will be restricted in the future. Consequently, policymaking should prioritize the development of integrated land-use planning to safeguard ecosystem services, accounting for future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties.

What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.

Plant functional assemblages as indicators of the resilience of grassland ecosystem service provision.

Ecosystems provide a variety of ecosystem services (ES), which act as key linkages between social and ecological systems. ES respond spatially and temporally to abiotic and biotic variation, and to management. Thus, resistant and resilient ES provision is expected to remain within a stable range when facing disturbances. In this study, generic indicators to evaluate resistance, potential resilience and capacity for transformation of ES provision are developed and their relevance demonstrated for a mountain grassland system. Indicators are based on plant trait composition (i.e. functional composition) and abiotic parameters determining ES provision at community, meta-community and landscape scales. First the resistance of an ES is indicated by its normal operating range characterized by observed values under current conditions. Second its resilience is assessed by its potential operating range - under hypotheses of reassembly from the community's species pool. Third its transformation potential is assessed for reassembly at meta-community and landscape scales. Using a state-and-transition model, possible management-related transitions between mountain grassland states were identified, and indicators calculated for two provisioning and two regulating ES. Overall, resilience properties varied across individual ES, supporting a focus on resilience of specific ES. The resilience potential of the two provisioning services was greater than for the two regulating services, both being linked to functional complementarity within communities. We also found high transformation potential reflecting functional redundancy among communities within each meta-community, and across meta-communities in the landscape. Presented indicators are promising for the projection of future ES provision and the identification of management options under environmental change.

Historical trajectories in land use pattern and grassland ecosystem services in two European alpine landscapes.

Land use and spatial patterns which reflect social-ecological legacies control ecosystem service (ES) supply. Yet, temporal changes in ES bundles associated with land use change are little studied. We developed original metrics to quantify synchronous historical variations in spatial patterns of land use and ES supply capacity, and demonstrated their use for two mountain grassland landscapes. Consistent with other European mountains, land use dynamics from the nineteenth century until the mid-twentieth century resulted in increased landscape heterogeneity, followed by homogenisation. In the persistently grassy landscape of Lautaret in France, landscape multifunctionality-the provision of multiple ES-coincided with greatest landscape heterogeneity and within-patch diversity in ecosystem services in the 1950-1970s. In the more complex Austrian landscape, where since the nineteenth century intensive production has concentrated in the valley and steep slopes have been abandoned, grassland landscape-level multifunctionality and spatial heterogeneity across grasslands have decreased. Increasing spatial heterogeneity across grasslands until the 1970s was paralleled at both sites by increasing fine-grained spatial variability for individual ES, but subsequent landscape simplification has promoted coarse-grained ES patterns This novel analysis of landscape-scale turnover highlighted how spatial patterns for individual ES scale to multiple grassland ES, depending on the nature of land use spatial variability. Under current socio-economic trends, sustaining or re-establishing fine-grained landscapes is often not feasible, thus future landscape planning and policies might focus on managing landscape and regional-scale multifunctionality. Also, the trends towards decreasing cultural ES and increasing regulating ES suggest a contradiction with current social demand and regional policies.

Monitoring of Freezing Dynamics in Trees: A Simple Phase Shift Causes Complexity.

During winter, trees have to cope with harsh conditions, including extreme freeze-thaw stress. This study focused on ice nucleation and propagation, related water shifts and xylem cavitation, as well as cell damage and was based on in situ monitoring of xylem (thermocouples) and surface temperatures (infrared imaging), ultrasonic emissions, and dendrometer analysis. Field experiments during late winter on Picea abies growing at the alpine timberline revealed three distinct freezing patterns: (1) from the top of the tree toward the base, (2) from thin branches toward the main stem's top and base, and (3) from the base toward the top. Infrared imaging showed freezing within branches from their base toward distal parts. Such complex freezing causes dynamic and heterogenous patterns in water potential and probably in cavitation. This study highlights the interaction between environmental conditions upon freezing and thawing and demonstrates the enormous complexity of freezing processes in trees. Diameter shrinkage, which indicated water fluxes within the stem, and acoustic emission analysis, which indicated cavitation events near the ice front upon freezing, were both related to minimum temperature and, upon thawing, related to vapor pressure deficit and soil temperature. These complex patterns, emphasizing the common mechanisms between frost and drought stress, shed new light on winter tree physiology.

Implications of atmospheric conditions for analysis of surface temperature variability derived from landscape-scale thermography.

Thermal infrared (TIR) cameras perfectly bridge the gap between (i) on-site measurements of land surface temperature (LST) providing high temporal resolution at the cost of low spatial coverage and (ii) remotely sensed data from satellites that provide high spatial coverage at relatively low spatio-temporal resolution. While LST data from satellite (LSTsat) and airborne platforms are routinely corrected for atmospheric effects, such corrections are barely applied for LST from ground-based TIR imagery (using TIR cameras; LSTcam). We show the consequences of neglecting atmospheric effects on LSTcam of different vegetated surfaces at landscape scale. We compare LST measured from different platforms, focusing on the comparison of LST data from on-site radiometry (LSTosr) and LSTcam using a commercially available TIR camera in the region of Bozen/Bolzano (Italy). Given a digital elevation model and measured vertical air temperature profiles, we developed a multiple linear regression model to correct LSTcam data for atmospheric influences. We could show the distinct effect of atmospheric conditions and related radiative processes along the measurement path on LSTcam, proving the necessity to correct LSTcam data on landscape scale, despite their relatively low measurement distances compared to remotely sensed data. Corrected LSTcam data revealed the dampening effect of the atmosphere, especially at high temperature differences between the atmosphere and the vegetated surface. Not correcting for these effects leads to erroneous LST estimates, in particular to an underestimation of the heterogeneity in LST, both in time and space. In the most pronounced case, we found a temperature range extension of almost 10 K.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Agent-based modelling of water balance in a social-ecological system: A multidisciplinary approach for mountain catchments.

The European Alps are known as the 'water towers of Europe'. However, climatic and socioeconomic changes influence both water supply and demand, increasing the need to manage this limited and valuable resource properly to avoid user conflicts and water scarcity. Two major challenges emerge when assessing water scarcity in the Alps: Firstly, mountainous regions are very heterogeneous regarding water availability and demand over space and time, and therefore water scarcity assessments need to be done at low temporal and spatial scales. Secondly, the tight coupling of the natural and the social sphere necessitate an integrative approach considering dynamics and interactions of the social-ecological system. Hence, we applied the agent-based water supply and demand model Aqua.MORE, which is designed for catchment scale and sub-daily temporal resolution, to a case study site in the Italian Alps. In the model, the water supply, the local water managers and water users are represented by interacting model agents. We estimated the water supply by refining the annual runoff data provided by the InVEST water yield model for within-year variations. Local stakeholders contributed to the development of quantitative and spatially-explicit scenarios for land use and tourism evolution. To evaluate water supply and demand dynamics, we assessed six scenarios for the period of 2015 to 2050: three different socio-economic policy pathways, both alone and in combination with a climate change scenario. In all six scenarios, the water demand:supply (D:S) ratio continuously rises from 2015 to 2050.The highest D:S ratio values are prognosed at the beginning of the irrigation period in May. In all scenarios considering climatic changes, the D:S ratio exceeds 20% for several days, indicating potential water scarcity. The simulation results reinforce the importance of analysing water balances at a high temporal resolution and can support management processes and stakeholder dialogues for sustainable watershed management.

Future impacts of changing land-use and climate on ecosystem services of mountain grassland and their resilience.

Although the ecosystem services provided by mountain grasslands have been demonstrated to be highly vulnerable to environmental and management changes in the past, it remains unclear how they will be affected in the face of a combination of further land-use/cover changes and accelerating climate change. Moreover, the resilience of ecosystem services has not been sufficiently analysed under future scenarios. This study aimed to assess future impacts on multiple mountain grassland ecosystem services and their resilience. For a study area in the Central Alps (Stubai Valley, Austria), six ecosystem services were quantified using plant trait-based models for current and future conditions (in 2050 and 2100) considering three socio-economic scenarios. Under all scenarios, the greatest changes in ecosystem services were related to the natural reforestation of abandoned grassland, causing a shift from grassland to forest services. Although the high resilience potential of most ecosystem services will be maintained in the future, climate change seems to have negative impacts, especially on the resilience of forage production. Thus, decision makers and farmers will be faced with the higher vulnerability of ecosystem services of mountain grassland. Future policies should consider both socio-economic and environmental dynamics to manage valuable ecosystem services.

Impact of droughts on water provision in managed alpine grasslands in two climatically different regions of the Alps.

This study analyzes the impact of droughts, compared with average climatic conditions, on the supporting ecosystem service water provision in sub-watersheds in managed alpine grasslands in two climatically different regions of the Alps, Lautaret (French Alps) and Stubai (Austrian Alps). Soil moisture was modelled in the range of 0-0.3 m. At both sites, current patterns showed that the mean seasonal soil moisture was (1) near field capacity for grasslands with low management intensity and (2) below field capacity for grasslands with higher land-use intensity. Soil moisture was significantly reduced by drought at both sites, with lower reductions at the drier Lautaret site. At the sub-watershed scale, soil moisture spatial heterogeneity was reduced by drought. Under drought conditions, the evapotranspiration to precipitation ratios at Stubai was slightly higher than those at Lautaret, indicating a dominant 'water spending' strategy of plant communities. Regarding catchment water balance, deep seepage was reduced by drought at Stubai more strongly than at Lautaret. Hence, the observed 'water spending' strategy at Stubai might have negative consequences for downstream water users. Assessing the water provision service for alpine grasslands provided evidence that, under drought conditions, evapotranspiration was influenced not only by abiotic factors but also by the water-use strategy of established vegetation. These results highlight the importance of 'water-use' strategies in existing plant communities as predictors of the impacts of drought on water provision services and related ecosystem services at both the field and catchment scale.

Multiple ecosystem services of a changing Alpine landscape: past, present and future.

In mountain regions, ecosystem services provision is strongly linked to land use, topography and climate, where impacts can be expected under global change. For our study site in the Austrian Alps, we examined the relationship between agricultural activities and multiple ecosystem services on landscape scale from past to future. Modelling of future land-use patterns was based on stakeholder workshops considering different socio-economic and climate scenarios. In the past, land-use intensity was reduced resulting in less forage provision but better regulating services. Future scenarios predict contrasting developments; under conditions of global change, farmers shift the focus of their activities towards tourism, but in times of global economic crisis farming becomes more important again. Developing the local economy facilitates new markets for agricultural products, but projected drought periods will cause an abandonment of farmland. While forest regeneration is valuable for regulating services, it reduces the aesthetic value. Both regulating and cultural services decrease when forage provision is optimized. To ensure multiple ecosystem service provision, agricultural management should be related to ecosystem services and included into land-use policies and agricultural incentives.