Trends in Black-White Differences of Antihypertensive Treatment in Individuals With and Without History of Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Recent hypertension guidelines for the general population have included race-specific recommendations for antihypertensives, whereas current stroke-specific recommendations for antihypertensives do not vary by race. The impact of these guidelines on antihypertensive regimen changes over time, and if this has varied by prevalent stroke status, is unclear. METHODS: The use of antihypertensive medications was studied cross-sectionally among self-identified Black and White participants, aged ≥45 years, with and without history of stroke, from the REGARDS study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke). Participants completed an in-home examination in 2003-2007 (visit 1) with/without an examination in 2013-2016 (visit 2). Stratified by prevalent stroke status, logistic regression mixed models examined associations between antihypertensive class use for visit 2 versus visit 1 and Black versus White individuals with an interaction adjusted for demographics, socioeconomic status, and vascular risk factors/vital signs. RESULTS: Of 17 244 stroke-free participants at visit 1, Black participants had greater adjusted odds of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor usage than White participants (odds ratio [OR], 1.51 [95% CI, 1.30-1.77]). This difference was smaller in the 7476 stroke-free participants at visit 2 (OR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.08-1.25]). In stroke-free participants at visit 1, Black participants had lower odds of calcium channel blocker (CCB) usage than White participants (OR, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.41-0.55]), but CCB usage did not differ significantly between Black and White stroke-free participants at visit 2 (OR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.95-1.09]). Among 1437 stroke survivor participants at visit 1, Black participants had lower odds of CCB use than White participants (OR, 0.34 [95% CI, 0.26-0.45]). In 689 stroke survivor participants at visit 2, CCB use did not differ between Black and White participants (OR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.61-1.06]). CONCLUSIONS: Racial differences in the use of guideline-recommended antihypertensives decreased between 2003-2007 and 2013-2016 in stroke-free individuals. In stroke survivors, racial differences in CCB usage narrowed over the time periods. These findings suggest there is still a mismatch between race-specific hypertension guidelines and recent clinical practice.

Migraines, vasomotor symptoms, and cardiovascular disease in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether vasomotor symptoms (VMS) and migraine headaches, hypothesized to be vasoactive conditions, are associated with greater risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events including strokes. METHODS: We performed a secondary data analysis of a subset of women (n = 1,954) in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, a population-based cohort, which began data collection at 18 to 30 y of age. We examined whether migraine headaches and VMS trajectories (characterized as minimal, increasing, and persistent) at CARDIA year 15 examination were associated with higher risk of CVD events and stroke (both ischemic and hemorrhagic) using Cox proportional hazards regression models and adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors (age, cigarette use, and levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, high- and low-density cholesterol, and triglycerides) and reproductive factors. RESULTS: Among women with minimal VMS (n = 835), increasing VMS (n = 521), and persistent VMS (n = 598), there were 81 incident CVD events including 42 strokes. Women with histories of migraine and persistent VMS had greater risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 2.25; 95% CI, 1.15-4.38) after adjustment for age, race, estrogen use, oophorectomy, and hysterectomy compared with women without migraine histories and with minimal/increasing VMS. After adjustment for CVD risk factors, these associations were attenuated (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 0.73-3.10). Similarly, women with histories of migraine and persistent VMS had greater risk of stroke (HR, 3.15; 95% CI, 1.35-7.34), but these associations were attenuated after adjustment for CVD risk factors (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 0.66-4.38). CONCLUSIONS: Migraines and persistent VMS jointly associate with greater risk for CVD and stroke, although risk is attenuated with adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors.

Association of Changes in C-Reactive Protein Level Trajectories Through Early Adulthood With Cognitive Function at Midlife: The CARDIA Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Late-life inflammation has been linked to dementia risk and preclinical cognitive decline, but less is known about early adult inflammation and whether this could influence cognition in midlife. We aimed to identify inflammation levels through early adulthood and determine association of these trajectories with midlife cognition. METHODS: We used data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study to identify inflammation trajectories (C-reactive protein [CRP] level <10 mg/L) over 18 years through early adulthood (age range 24-58) in latent class analysis and to assess associations with cognition 5 years after the last CRP measurement (age range 47-63). Six cognitive domains were evaluated from tests of verbal memory, processing speed, executive function, verbal and category fluency, and global cognition; poor cognitive performance was defined as a decline of ≥1 SD less than the mean on each domain. The primary outcome was poor cognitive performance. Logistic regression was used to adjust for demographics, smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, and APOE 4 status. RESULTS: Among 2,364 participants, the mean (SD) age was 50.2 (3.5) years; 55% were female, and 57% were White. Three CRP trajectories emerged over 18 years: lower stable (45%), moderate/increasing (16%), and consistently higher (39%). Compared with lower stable CRP, both consistently higher (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.67, 95% CI 1.23-2.26) and moderately/increasing (aOR 2.04, 95% CI 1.40-2.96) CRP had higher odds of poor processing speed; consistently higher CRP additionally had higher odds of poor executive function (aOR 1.36, 95% CI 1.00-1.88). For memory (moderately/increasing aOR 1.36, 95% CI 1.00-1.88; consistently higher aOR 1.18, 95% CI 0.90-1.54), letter fluency (moderately/increasing aOR 1.00, 95% CI 0.69-1.43; consistently higher aOR 1.05, 95% CI 0.80-1.39), category fluency (moderately/increasing aOR 1.16, 95% CI 0.82-1.63; consistently higher aOR 1.11, 95% CI 0.85-1.45), or global cognition (moderately/increasing aOR 1.16, 95% CI 0.82-1.63; consistently higher aOR 1.11, 95% CI 0.85-1.45), no association was observed. DISCUSSION: Consistently higher or moderate/increasing inflammation starting in early adulthood may lead to worse midlife executive function and processing speed. Study limitations include selection bias due to loss to follow-up and reliance on CRP as the only inflammatory marker. Inflammation is important for cognitive aging and may begin much earlier than previously known.

A Community-Based Study of Dementia in Mexican American and Non-Hispanic White Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the prevalence of cognitive impairment in Mexican American persons. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia in those 65 years and older among Mexican American and non-Hispanic white individuals in a community. METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study in Nueces County, Texas, USA. Participants were recruited using a random housing sample. The Harmonized Cognitive Assessment (HCAP) participant and informant protocol was performed after Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) screening. An algorithm was used to sort participants into diagnostic categories: no cognitive impairment, MCI, or dementia. Logistic regression determined the association of ethnicity with MCI and dementia controlling for age, gender, and education. RESULTS: 1,901 participants completed the MoCA and 547 the HCAP. Mexican Americans were younger and had less educational attainment than non-Hispanic whites. Overall, dementia prevalence was 11.6% (95% CI 9.2-14.0) and MCI prevalence was 21.2% (95% CI 17.5-24.8). After adjusting for age, gender, and education level, there was no significant ethnic difference in the odds of dementia or MCI. Those with ≤11 compared with ≥16 years of education had much higher dementia [OR = 4.9 (95% CI 2.2-11.1)] and MCI risk [OR = 3.5 (95% CI 1.6-7.5)]. CONCLUSIONS: Dementia and MCI prevalence were high in both Mexican American and non-Hispanic white populations. Mexican American persons had double the odds of mild cognitive impairment and this was attenuated when age and educational attainment were considered. Educational attainment was a potent predictor of cognitive impairment.

Patient and Care Partner Perspective on Potential Undertreatment of Patients With Mild Cognitive Impairment for Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) affects up to 22% of US older adults aged 65 and older. Research suggests that physicians may recommend less cardiovascular disease (CVD) treatment for older adults with MCI due to assumptions about their preferences. To delve into the disparity between patient preferences and physician assumptions in CVD treatment recommendations, we conducted a multi-site qualitative study to explore the underlying reasons for this discrepancy, providing insights into potential communication barriers and strategies to enhance patient-physician relationships. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Employing a descriptive qualitative approach, we conducted interviews with 20 dyads, comprising older adults with MCI (n = 11) and normal cognition NC (n = 9), and their respective care partners. During these interviews, participants were prompted to reflect on physicians recommending fewer guideline-concordant CVD treatments to older adults with MCI than those with NC and physicians presuming that older adults with MCI desired less care or treatment in general than those with NC. RESULTS: We identified three primary themes: (1) Most participants had negative reactions to the data that physicians might undertreat patients with MCI for CVD; (2) Participants suggested that physicians may undertreat patients with MCI due to physician assumptions about treatment effectiveness, patient prognosis, value, and treatment adherence, and (3) Participants proposed that physicians may elicit less input from patients with MCI about treatments because of negative physician assumptions about patient decision-making capacity and physician time limitations. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: This study underscores the pressing need for person-centered communication and involvement of older adults with MCI and their care partners in the decision-making process to ensure that decisions are well-informed, reflecting patients' genuine preferences and values. Addressing these concerns has the potential to substantially enhance the quality of care and treatment outcomes for this vulnerable population, ultimately promoting their overall well-being.

Hypertension Prevalence, Treatment, and Control 90 Days After Acute Stroke Among Mexican American and Non-Hispanic White Adults.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure (BP) increases recurrent stroke risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed hypertension prevalence, treatment, control, medication adherence, and predictors of uncontrolled BP 90 days after ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke among 561 Mexican American and non-Hispanic White (NHW) survivors of stroke from the BASIC (Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi) cohort from 2011 to 2014. Uncontrolled BP was defined as average BP ≥140/90 mm Hg at 90 days poststroke. Hypertension was uncontrolled BP or antihypertensive medication prescribed or hypertension history. Treatment was antihypertensive use. Adherence was missing zero antihypertensive doses per week. We investigated predictors of uncontrolled BP using logistic regression adjusting for patient factors. Median (interquartile range) age was 68 (59-78) years, 64% were Mexican American, and 90% of strokes were ischemic. Overall, 94.3% of survivors of stroke had hypertension (95.6% Mexican American versus 92.0% non-Hispanic White; P=0.09). Of these, 87.9% were treated (87.3% Mexican American versus 89.1% non-Hispanic White; P=0.54). Among the total population, 38.3% (95% CI, 34.4%-42.4%) had uncontrolled BP. Among those with uncontrolled BP prescribed an antihypertensive, 84.5% reported treatment adherence (95% CI, 78.8%-89.3%). Uncontrolled BP 90 days poststroke was less likely in patients with stroke who had a primary care physician (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.45 [95% CI, 0.24-0.83]; P=0.01), greater stroke severity (aOR per-1-point-higher National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.93-0.99]; P=0.02), or more depressive symptoms (aOR per-1-point-higher Personal Health Questionnaire Depression Scale-8 score, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.92-0.99] among those with a history of hypertension at baseline; P=0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Greater than one third of survivors of stroke have uncontrolled BP at 90 days poststroke in this population-based study. Interventions are needed to improve BP control after stroke.

Exploring Pathways to Caregiver Health: The Roles of Caregiver Burden, Familism, and Ethnicity.

OBJECTIVES: This study examines the associations of ethnicity, caregiver burden, familism, and physical and mental health among Mexican Americans (MAs) and non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs). METHODS: We recruited adults 65+ years with possible cognitive impairment (using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment score<26), and their caregivers living in Nueces County, Texas. We used weighted path analysis to test effects of ethnicity, familism, and caregiver burden on caregiver's mental and physical health. RESULTS: 516 caregivers and care-receivers participated. MA caregivers were younger, more likely female, and less educated compared to NHWs. Increased caregiver burden was associated with worse mental (B = -0.53; p < .001) and physical health (B = -0.15; p = .002). Familism was associated with lower burden (B = -0.14; p = .001). MA caregivers had stronger familism scores (B = 0.49; p < .001). DISCUSSION: Increased burden is associated with worse caregiver mental and physical health. MA caregivers had stronger familism resulting in better health. Findings can contribute to early identification, intervention, and coordination of services to help reduce caregiver burden.

Cumulative Systolic Blood Pressure and Incident Stroke Type Variation by Race and Ethnicity.

Importance: Stroke risk varies by systolic blood pressure (SBP), race, and ethnicity. The association between cumulative mean SBP and incident stroke type is unclear, and whether this association differs by race and ethnicity remains unknown. Objective: To examine the association between cumulative mean SBP and first incident stroke among 3 major stroke types-ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH)-and explore how these associations vary by race and ethnicity. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual participant data from 6 US longitudinal cohorts (January 1, 1971, to December 31, 2019) were pooled. The analysis was performed from January 1, 2022, to January 2, 2024. The median follow-up was 21.6 (IQR, 13.6-31.8) years. Exposure: Time-dependent cumulative mean SBP. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was time from baseline visit to first incident stroke. Secondary outcomes consisted of time to first incident IS, ICH, and SAH. Results: Among 40 016 participants, 38 167 who were 18 years or older at baseline with no history of stroke and at least 1 SBP measurement before the first incident stroke were included in the analysis. Of these, 54.0% were women; 25.0% were Black, 8.9% were Hispanic of any race, and 66.2% were White. The mean (SD) age at baseline was 53.4 (17.0) years and the mean (SD) SBP at baseline was 136.9 (20.4) mm Hg. A 10-mm Hg higher cumulative mean SBP was associated with a higher risk of overall stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.18-1.23]), IS (HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.17-1.22]), and ICH (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.25-1.38]) but not SAH (HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 0.99-1.29]; P = .06). Compared with White participants, Black participants had a higher risk of IS (HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.09-1.33]) and ICH (HR, 1.67 [95% CI, 1.30-2.13]) and Hispanic participants of any race had a higher risk of SAH (HR, 3.81 [95% CI, 1.29-11.22]). There was no consistent evidence that race and ethnicity modified the association of cumulative mean SBP with first incident stroke and stroke type. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that cumulative mean SBP was associated with incident stroke type, but the associations did not differ by race and ethnicity. Culturally informed stroke prevention programs should address modifiable risk factors such as SBP along with social determinants of health and structural inequities in society.

Effect of Population-Level Blood Pressure Treatment Strategies on Cardiovascular and Cognitive Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The large and increasing number of adults living with dementia is a pressing societal priority, which may be partially mitigated through improved population-level blood pressure (BP) control. We explored how tighter population-level BP control affects the incidence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and dementia. METHODS: Using an open-source ASCVD and dementia simulation analysis platform, the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model, we evaluated how optimal implementation of 2 BP treatments based on the Eighth Joint National Committee recommendations and SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) protocol would influence population-level ASCVD events, global cognitive performance, and all-cause dementia. We simulated 3 populations (usual care, Eighth Joint National Committee based, SPRINT based) using nationally representative data to annually update risk factors and assign ASCVD events, global cognitive performance scores, and dementia, applying different BP treatments in each population. We tabulated total ASCVD events, global cognitive performance, all-cause dementia, optimal brain health, and years lived in each state per population. RESULTS: Optimal implementation of SPRINT-based BP treatment strategy, compared with usual care, reduced ASCVD events in the United States by ≈77 000 per year and produced 0.4 more years of stroke- or myocardial infarction-free survival when averaged across all Americans. Population-level gains in years lived free of ASCVD events were greater for SPRINT-based than Eighth Joint National Committee-based treatment. Survival and years spent with optimal brain health improved with optimal SPRINT-based BP treatment implementation versus usual care: the average patient with hypertension lived 0.19 additional years and 0.3 additional years in optimal brain health. SPRINT-based BP treatment increased the number of years lived without dementia (by an average of 0.13 years/person with hypertension), but increased the total number of individuals with dementia, mainly through more adults surviving to advanced ages. CONCLUSIONS: Tighter BP control likely benefits most individuals but is unlikely to reduce dementia prevalence and might even increase the number of older adults living with dementia.

Trajectory of Cognitive Function After Incident Heart Failure.

Background: The size/magnitude of cognitive changes after incident heart failure (HF) are unclear. We assessed whether incident HF is associated with changes in cognitive function after accounting for pre-HF cognitive trajectories and known determinants of cognition. Methods: This pooled cohort study included adults without HF, stroke, or dementia from six US population-based cohort studies from 1971-2019: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study, Cardiovascular Health Study, Framingham Offspring Study, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Northern Manhattan Study. Linear mixed-effects models estimated changes in cognition at the time of HF (change in the intercept) and the rate of cognitive change over the years after HF (change in the slope), controlling for pre-HF cognitive trajectories and participant factors. Change in global cognition was the primary outcome. Change in executive function and memory were secondary outcomes. Cognitive outcomes were standardized to a t-score metric (mean [SD], 50 [10]); a 1-point difference represented a 0.1-SD difference in cognition. Results: The study included 29,614 adults (mean [SD] age was 61.1 [10.5] years, 55% female, 70.3% White, 22.2% Black 7.5% Hispanic). During a median follow-up of 6.6 (Q1-Q3: 5-19.8) years, 1,407 (4.7%) adults developed incident HF. Incident HF was associated with an acute decrease in global cognition (-1.08 points; 95% CI -1.36, -0.80) and executive function (-0.65 points; 95% CI -0.96, -0.34) but not memory (-0.51 points; 95% CI -1.37, 0.35) at the time of the event. Greater acute decreases in global cognition after HF were seen in those with older age, female sex and White race. Individuals with incident HF, compared to HF-free individuals, demonstrated faster declines in global cognition (-0.15 points per year; 95% CI, -0.21, -0.09) and executive function (-0.16 points per year; 95% CI -0.23, -0.09) but not memory ( -0.11 points per year; 95% CI -0.26, 0.04) compared with pre-HF slopes. Conclusions: In this pooled cohort study, incident HF was associated with an acute decrease in global cognition and executive function at the time of the event and faster declines in global cognition and executive function over the following years.

Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM).

Strategies to prevent or delay Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) are urgently needed, and blood pressure (BP) management is a promising strategy. Yet the effects of different BP control strategies across the life course on AD/ADRD are unknown. Randomized trials may be infeasible due to prolonged follow-up and large sample sizes. Simulation analysis is a practical approach to estimating these effects using the best available existing data. However, existing simulation frameworks cannot estimate the effects of BP control on both dementia and cardiovascular disease. This manuscript describes the design principles, implementation details, and population-level validation of a novel population-health microsimulation framework, the MIchigan ChROnic Disease SIMulation (MICROSIM), for The Effect of Lower Blood Pressure over the Life Course on Late-life Cognition in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites (BP-COG) study of the effect of BP levels over the life course on dementia and cardiovascular disease. MICROSIM is an agent-based Monte Carlo simulation designed using computer programming best practices. MICROSIM estimates annual vascular risk factor levels and transition probabilities in all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults 18+ using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). MICROSIM models changes in risk factors over time, cognition and dementia using changes from a pooled dataset of individual participant data from 6 US prospective cardiovascular cohort studies. Cardiovascular risks were estimated using a widely used risk model and BP treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. MICROSIM is an extensible, open-source framework designed to estimate the population-level impact of different BP management strategies and reproduces US population-level estimates of BP and other vascular risk factors levels, their change over time, and incident all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality.

Associations Between Stroke Type, Ischemic Stroke Subtypes, and Post-Stroke Cognitive Trajectories.

Background: It is unclear how post-stroke cognitive trajectories differ by stroke type and ischemic stroke subtype. We studied associations between stroke types (ischemic, hemorrhagic), ischemic stroke subtypes (cardioembolic, large artery atherosclerotic, lacunar/small vessel, cryptogenic/other determined etiology), and post-stroke cognitive decline. Methods: This pooled cohort analysis from four US cohort studies (1971-2019) identified 1,143 dementia-free individuals with acute stroke during follow-up: 1,061 (92.8%) ischemic, 82 (7.2%) hemorrhagic, 49.9% female, 30.8% Black. Median age at stroke was 74.1 (IQR, 68.6, 79.3) years. Outcomes were change in global cognition (primary) and changes in executive function and memory (secondary). Outcomes were standardized as T-scores (mean [SD], 50 [10]); a 1-point difference represents a 0.1-SD difference in cognition. Median follow-up for the primary outcome was 6.0 (IQR, 3.2, 9.2) years. Linear mixed-effects models estimated changes in cognition after stroke. Results: On average, the initial post-stroke global cognition score was 50.78 points (95% CI, 49.52, 52.03) in ischemic stroke survivors and did not differ in hemorrhagic stroke survivors (difference, -0.17 points [95% CI, -1.64, 1.30]; P=0.82) after adjusting for demographics and pre-stroke cognition. On average, ischemic stroke survivors showed declines in global cognition, executive function, and memory. Post-stroke declines in global cognition, executive function, and memory did not differ between hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke survivors. 955 ischemic strokes had subtypes: 200 (20.9%) cardioembolic, 77 (8.1%) large artery atherosclerotic, 207 (21.7%) lacunar/small vessel, 471 (49.3%) cryptogenic/other determined etiology. On average, small vessel stroke survivors showed declines in global cognition and memory, but not executive function. Initial post-stroke cognitive scores and cognitive declines did not differ between small vessel survivors and survivors of other ischemic stroke subtypes. Post-stroke vascular risk factor levels did not attenuate associations. Conclusion: Stroke survivors had cognitive decline in multiple domains. Declines did not differ by stroke type or ischemic stroke subtype.

A Novel Risk Score to Guide the Evaluation of Acute Hematogenous Osteomyelitis in Children.

OBJECTIVES: To identify independent predictors of and derive a risk score for acute hematogenous osteomyelitis (AHO) in children. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective matched case-control study of children >90 days to <18 years of age undergoing evaluation for a suspected musculoskeletal (MSK) infection from 2017 to 2019 at 23 pediatric emergency departments (EDs) affiliated with the Pediatric Emergency Medicine Collaborative Research Committee. Cases were identified by diagnosis codes and confirmed by chart review to meet accepted diagnostic criteria for AHO. Controls included patients who underwent laboratory and imaging tests to evaluate for a suspected MSK infection and received an alternate final diagnosis. RESULTS: We identified 1135 cases of AHO matched to 2270 controls. Multivariable logistic regression identified 10 clinical and laboratory factors independently associated with AHO. We derived a 4-point risk score for AHO using (1) duration of illness >3 days, (2) history of fever or highest ED temperature ≥38°C, (3) C-reactive protein >2.0 mg/dL, and (4) erythrocyte sedimentation rate >25 mm per hour (area under the curve: 0.892, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.881 to 0.901). Choosing to pursue definitive diagnostics for AHO when 3 or more factors are present maximizes diagnostic accuracy at 84% (95% CI: 82% to 85%), whereas children with 0 factors present are highly unlikely to have AHO (sensitivity: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.00). CONCLUSIONS: We identified 10 predictors for AHO in children undergoing evaluation for a suspected MSK infection in the pediatric ED and derived a novel 4-point risk score to guide clinical decision-making.