Forecasting Postflight Hip Fracture Probability Using Probabilistic Modeling.

A probabilistic model predicts hip fracture probability for postflight male astronauts during lateral fall scenarios from various heights. A biomechanical representation of the hip provides impact load. Correlations relate spaceflight bone mineral density (BMD) loss and postflight BMD recovery to bone strength (BS). Translations convert fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load (AL) to BS, to fracture probability. Parameter distributions capture uncertainty and Monte Carlo simulations provide probability outcomes. The fracture probability for a 1 m fall 0 days postflight is 15% greater than preflight and remains 6% greater than pre-flight at 365 days postflight. Probability quantification provides insight into how spaceflight induced BMD loss affects fracture probability. A bone loss rate reflecting improved exercise countermeasures and dietary intake further reduces the postflight fracture probability to 6% greater than preflight at 0 days postflight and 2% greater at 365 days postflight. Quantification informs assessments of countermeasure effectiveness. When preflight BMD is one standard deviation below mean astronaut preflight BMD, fracture probability at 0 days postflight is 34% greater than the preflight fracture probability calculated with mean BMD and 28% greater at 365 days postflight. Quantification aids review of astronaut BMD fitness for duty standards. Increases in postflight fracture probability are associated with an estimated 18% reduction in postflight BS. Therefore, a 0.82 deconditioning coefficient modifies force application limits for crew vehicles.

Modeling the impact of thoracic pressure on intracranial pressure.

A potential contribution to the progression of Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome is the thoracic-to-spinal dural sac transmural pressure relationship. In this study, we utilize a lumped-parameter computational model of human cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) systems to investigate mechanisms of CSF redistribution. We present two analyses to illustrate potential mechanisms for CSF pressure alterations similar to those observed in microgravity conditions. Our numerical evidence suggests that the compliant relationship between thoracic and CSF compartments is insufficient to solely explain the observed decrease in CSF pressure with respect to the supine position. Our analyses suggest that the interaction between thoracic pressure and the cardiovascular system, particularly the central veins, has greater influence on CSF pressure. These results indicate that future studies should focus on the holistic system, with the impact of cardiovascular changes to the CSF pressure emphasized over the sequestration of fluid in the spine.

Single drop cytometry onboard the International Space Station.

Real-time lab analysis is needed to support clinical decision making and research on human missions to the Moon and Mars. Powerful laboratory instruments, such as flow cytometers, are generally too cumbersome for spaceflight. Here, we show that scant test samples can be measured in microgravity, by a trained astronaut, using a miniature cytometry-based analyzer, the rHEALTH ONE, modified specifically for spaceflight. The base device addresses critical spaceflight requirements including minimal resource utilization and alignment-free optics for surviving rocket launch. To fully enable reduced gravity operation onboard the space station, we incorporated bubble-free fluidics, electromagnetic shielding, and gravity-independent sample introduction. We show microvolume flow cytometry from 10 µL sample drops, with data from five simultaneous channels using 10 µs bin intervals during each sample run, yielding an average of 72 million raw data points in approximately 2 min. We demonstrate the device measures each test sample repeatably, including correct identification of a sample that degraded in transit to the International Space Station. This approach can be utilized to further our understanding of spaceflight biology and provide immediate, actionable diagnostic information for management of astronaut health without the need for Earth-dependent analysis.

Predicting head injury risk during International Space Station increments.

INTRODUCTION: NASA's Human Research Program is using a probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify acute and chronic medical risks to manned spaceflight. The objective of this project was to estimate the likelihood of a neurological head injury to a crewmember severe enough to require medical assessment, treatment, or evacuation during a typical International Space Station (ISS) increment. METHODS: A 2 degree-of-freedom analytical model of the human head was created to allow for analysis of the impact response. The output of the model is acceleration of the head, which was used to determine the probability that the simulated impact resulted in a head injury with an Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score of 3 or greater. These data were then integrated into a probabilistic risk assessment, which outputs a likelihood of injury with a representative measure of the uncertainty. RESULTS: A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to vary input parameters over their defined distributions. The mean probability of a moderate neurological injury (AIS 3 or greater) occurring due to a head impact by a crewmember translating through the ISS is 1.16 x 10(-4) per 6-mo mission increment (2.32 x 10(-4) per year). DISCUSSION: Our head injury prediction model has shown that there is a low, yet not insignificant, probability of neurological head injury of AIS score 3 or greater. The results from this simulation will be input into the parent Integrated Medical Model, which incorporates the risks of over 80 different medical events in order to inform mission planning scenarios.

An extravehicular suit impact load attenuation study to improve astronaut bone fracture prediction.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding the contributions to the risk of bone fracture during spaceflight is essential for mission success. METHODS: A pressurized extravehicular activity (EVA) suit analogue test bed was developed, impact load attenuation data were obtained, and the load at the hip of an astronaut who falls to the side during an EVA was characterized. Offset (representing the gap between the EVA suit and the astronaut's body), impact load magnitude, and EVA suit operating pressure were factors varied in the study. The attenuation data were incorporated into a probabilistic model of bone fracture risk during spaceflight, replacing the previous load attenuation value that was based on commercial hip protector data. RESULTS: Load attenuation was more dependent on offset than on pressurization or load magnitude, especially at small offset values. Load attenuation factors for offsets between 0.1-1.5 cm were 0.69 +/- 0.15, 0.49 +/- 0.22, and 0.35 +/- 0.18 for mean impact forces of 4827, 6400, and 8467 N, respectively. Load attenuation factors for offsets of 2.8-5.3 cm were 0.93 +/- 0.2, 0.94 +/- 0.1, and 0.84 +/- 0.5 for the same mean impact forces. The mean and 95th percentile bone fracture risk index predictions were each reduced by 65-83%. The mean and 95th percentile bone fracture probability predictions were both reduced approximately 20-50%. DISCUSSION: The reduction in uncertainty and improved confidence in bone fracture predictions increased the fidelity and credibility of the fracture risk model and its benefit to mission design and in-flight operational decisions.

Predicting Space Radiation Single Ion Exposure in Rodents: A Machine Learning Approach.

This study presents a data-driven machine learning approach to predict individual Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) ion exposure for 4He, 16O, 28Si, 48Ti, or 56Fe up to 150 mGy, based on Attentional Set-shifting (ATSET) experimental tests. The ATSET assay consists of a series of cognitive performance tasks on irradiated male Wistar rats. The GCR ion doses represent the expected cumulative radiation astronauts may receive during a Mars mission on an individual ion basis. The primary objective is to synthesize and assess predictive models on a per-subject level through Machine Learning (ML) classifiers. The raw cognitive performance data from individual rodent subjects are used as features to train the models and to explore the capabilities of three different ML techniques for elucidating a range of correlations between received radiation on rodents and their performance outcomes. The analysis employs scores of selected input features and different normalization approaches which yield varying degrees of model performance. The current study shows that support vector machine, Gaussian naive Bayes, and random forest models are capable of predicting individual ion exposure using ATSET scores where corresponding Matthews correlation coefficients and F1 scores reflect model performance exceeding random chance. The study suggests a decremental effect on cognitive performance in rodents due to ≤150 mGy of single ion exposure, inasmuch as the models can discriminate between 0 mGy and any exposure level in the performance score feature space. A number of observations about the utility and limitations in specific normalization routines and evaluation scores are examined as well as best practices for ML with imbalanced datasets observed.

Locomotion in simulated and real microgravity: horizontal suspension vs. parabolic flight.

INTRODUCTION: The effect of reducing gravity on locomotion has been studied using microgravity analogues. However, there is no known literature comparing locomotion in actual microgravity (AM) to locomotion in simulated microgravity (SM). METHODS: Five subjects were tested while walking at 1.34 m x s(-1) and running at 3.13 m x s(-1) on a treadmill during parabolic flight and on a microgravity simulator. The external load (EL) in AM and SM was provided by elastomer bungees at approximately 55% (low) and 90% (high) of the subjects' bodyweight (BW). Lower body joint kinematics and ground reaction forces were measured during each condition. Effect size and its 95% confidence interval were computed between gravitational conditions for each outcome variable. RESULTS: In AM, subjects attained approximately 15-21 degrees greater hip flexion during walking and 19-25 degrees greater hip flexion during running. Hip range of motion was greater in AM during running by approximately 12-17 degrees. Trunk motion was 4 degrees less in SM than AM during walking. Peak impact force was greater in SM than in AM during walking with a low EL (SM = 0.95 +/- 0.04 BW; AM = 0.76 +/- 0.04 BW) and contact times were greater in SM. CONCLUSIONS: Subtle differences exist in locomotion patterns, temporal kinematics, and peak impact ground reaction forces between AM and SM. The differences suggest possible adaptations in the motor coordination required between gravitational condition, and potential differences in adaptations that are dependent upon if training occurs in actual or simulated microgravity.

Acute effects of posture on intraocular pressure.

Many experiments have documented the response of intraocular pressure (IOP) to postural change. External forces caused by gravitational orientation change produce a dynamic response that is encountered every day during normal activities. Tilting the body at a small downward angle is also relevant to studying the effects of hypogravity (spaceflight), including ocular changes. We examined data from 36 independent datasets from 30 articles on IOP response to postural change, representing a total population of 821 subjects (≥1173 eyes) with widely varying initial and final postures. We confirmed that IOP was well predicted by a simple quantity, namely the hydrostatic pressure at the level of the eye, although the dependence was complex (nonlinear). Our results show that posturally induced IOP change can be explained by hydrostatic forcing plus an autoregulatory contribution that is dependent on hydrostatic effects. This study represents data from thousands of IOP measurements and provides insight for future studies that consider postural change in relation to ocular physiology, intraocular pressure, ocular blood flow and aqueous humor dynamics.