Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map.

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model's performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model's ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

Hierarchical organization of urban mobility and its connection with city livability.

The recent trend of rapid urbanization makes it imperative to understand urban characteristics such as infrastructure, population distribution, jobs, and services that play a key role in urban livability and sustainability. A healthy debate exists on what constitutes optimal structure regarding livability in cities, interpolating, for instance, between mono- and poly-centric organization. Here anonymous and aggregated flows generated from three hundred million users, opted-in to Location History, are used to extract global Intra-urban trips. We develop a metric that allows us to classify cities and to establish a connection between mobility organization and key urban indicators. We demonstrate that cities with strong hierarchical mobility structure display an extensive use of public transport, higher levels of walkability, lower pollutant emissions per capita and better health indicators. Our framework outperforms previous metrics, is highly scalable and can be deployed with little cost, even in areas without resources for traditional data collection.