Financial risk protection of Thailand's universal health coverage: results from series of national household surveys between 1996 and 2015.

BACKGROUND: Thailand, an upper-middle income country, has demonstrated exemplary outcomes of Universal Health Coverage (UHC). The country achieved full population coverage and a high level of financial risk protection since 2002, through implementing three public health insurance schemes. UHC has two explicit goals of improved access to health services and financial protection where use of these services does not create financial hardship. Prior studies in Thailand do not provide evidence of long-term UHC financial risk protection. This study assessed financial risk protection as measured by the incidence of catastrophic health spending and impoverishment in Thai households prior to and after UHC in 2002. METHODS: We used data from a 15-year series of annual national household socioeconomic surveys (SES) between 1996 and 2015, which were conducted by the National Statistic Office (NSO). The survey covered about 52,000 nationally representative households in each round. Descriptive statistics were used to assess the incidence of catastrophic payment as measured by the share of out-of-pocket payment (OOP) for health by households exceeding 10 and 25% of household total consumption expenditure, and the incidence of impoverishment as determined by the additional number of non-poor households falling below the national and international poverty lines after making health payments. RESULTS: Using the 10% threshold, the incidence of catastrophic spending dropped from 6.0% in 1996 to 2% in 2015. This incidence reduced more significantly when the 25% threshold was applied from 1.8 to 0.4% during the same period. The incidence of impoverishment against the national poverty line reduced considerably from 2.2% in 1996 to approximately 0.3% in 2015. When the international poverty line of US$ 3.1 per capita per day was applied, the incidence of impoverishment was 1.4 and 0.4% in 1996 and 2015 respectively; and when US$ 1.9 per day was applied, the incidence was negligibly low. CONCLUSION: The significant decline in the incidence of catastrophic health spending and impoverishment was attributed to the deliberate design of Thailand's UHC, which provides a comprehensive benefits package and zero co-payment at point of services. The well-founded healthcare delivery system and favourable benefits package concertedly support the achievement of UHC goals of access and financial risk protection.

Economic development and road traffic injuries and fatalities in Thailand: an application of spatial panel data analysis, 2012-2016.

BACKGROUND: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) have been one of the most critical public health problems in Thailand for decades. The objective of this study was to examine to what extent provincial economy was associated with RTIs, road traffic deaths and case fatality rate in Thailand. METHODS: A secondary data analysis on time-series data was applied. The unit of analysis was a panel of 77 provinces during 2012-2016. Data were obtained from relevant public authorities, including the Ministry of Public Health. Descriptive statistics and econometric models, using negative binomial (NB) regression, negative binomial regression with random-effects (RE) model, and spatial Durbin model (SDM) were employed. The main predictor variable was gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the outcome variables were incidence proportion of RTIs, traffic deaths and case fatality rate. The analysis was adjusted for key covariates. RESULTS: The incidence proportion of RTIs rose from 449.0 to 524.9 cases per 100,000 population from 2012 till 2016, whereas the incidence of traffic fatalities fluctuated between 29.7 and 33.2 deaths per 100,000 population. Case fatality rate steadily stood at 0.06-0.07 deaths per victim. RTIs and traffic deaths appeared to be positively correlated with provincial economy in the NB regression and the RE model. In the SDM, a log-Baht increase in GDP per capita (equivalent to a growth of GDP per capita by about 2.7 times) enlarged the incidence proportion of injuries and deaths by about a quarter (23.8-30.7%) with statistical significance. No statistical significance was found in case fatality rate by the SDM. The SDM also presented the best model fitness relative to other models. CONCLUSION: The incidence proportion of traffic injuries and deaths appeared to rise alongside provincial prosperity. This means that RTIs-preventive measures should be more intensified in economically well-off areas. Furthermore, entrepreneurs and business sectors that gain economic benefit in a particular province should share responsibility in RTIs prevention in the area where their businesses are running. Further studies that explore others determinants of road safety, such as patterns of vehicles used, attitudes and knowledge of motorists, investment in safety measures, and compliance with traffic laws, are recommended.

Childhood stunting in Thailand: when prolonged breastfeeding interacts with household poverty.

BACKGROUND: Childhood stunting, defined as the height-for-age standardized score lower than minus two, is one of the key indicators for assessing well-being and health of a child; and can be used for monitoring child health inequalities. Thailand has been successful in improving health and providing financial protection for its population. A better understanding of the determinants of stunting will help fill both knowledge and policy gaps which promote children's health and well-being. This study assesses the factors contributing to stunting among Thai children aged less than five years. METHODS: This study obtained data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey Round 4 (MICS4), conducted in Thailand in 2012. Data analysis consisted of three steps. First, descriptive statistics provided an overview of data. Second, a Chi-square test determined the association between each covariate and stunting. Finally, multivariable logistic regression assessed the likelihood of stunting from all independent variables. Interaction effects between breastfeeding and household economy were added in the multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In the analysis without interaction effects, while the perceived size of children at birth as 'small' were positively associated with stunting, children in the well-off households were less likely to experience stunting. The analysis of the interactions between 'duration of breastfeeding' and 'household's economic level' found that the odds of stunting in children who were breastfed longer than 12 months in the poorest household quintile were 1.8 fold (95% Confidence interval: 1.3-2.6) higher than the odds found in mothers from the same poorest quintiles, but without prolonged breastfeeding. However prolonged breastfeeding in most well-off households (those between the second quintile and the fifth wealth quintile) did not show a tendency towards stunting. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood stunting was significantly associated with several factors. Prolonged breastfeeding beyond 12 months when interacting with poor economic status of a household potentiated stunting. Children living in the least well-off households were more prone to stunting than others. We recommend that the MICS survey questionnaire be amended to capture details on quantity, quality and practices of supplementary feeding. Multi-sectoral nutrition policies targeting poor households are required to address stunting challenges.

Good Health at Low Cost 25 years on: lessons for the future of health systems strengthening.

In 1985, the Rockefeller Foundation published Good health at low cost to discuss why some countries or regions achieve better health and social outcomes than do others at a similar level of income and to show the role of political will and socially progressive policies. 25 years on, the Good Health at Low Cost project revisited these places but looked anew at Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kyrgyzstan, Thailand, and the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, which have all either achieved substantial improvements in health or access to services or implemented innovative health policies relative to their neighbours. A series of comparative case studies (2009-11) looked at how and why each region accomplished these changes. Attributes of success included good governance and political commitment, effective bureaucracies that preserve institutional memory and can learn from experience, and the ability to innovate and adapt to resource limitations. Furthermore, the capacity to respond to population needs and build resilience into health systems in the face of political unrest, economic crises, and natural disasters was important. Transport infrastructure, female empowerment, and education also played a part. Health systems are complex and no simple recipe exists for success. Yet in the countries and regions studied, progress has been assisted by institutional stability, with continuity of reforms despite political and economic turmoil, learning lessons from experience, seizing windows of opportunity, and ensuring sensitivity to context. These experiences show that improvements in health can still be achieved in countries with relatively few resources, though strategic investment is necessary to address new challenges such as complex chronic diseases and growing population expectations.

Sensitivity analysis for handling uncertainty in an economic evaluation.

To meet updated international standards, this paper revises the previous Thai guidelines for conducting sensitivity analyses as part of the decision analysis model for health technology assessment. It recommends both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to handle uncertainty of the model parameters, which are best represented graphically. Two new methodological issues are introduced-a threshold analysis of medicines' unit prices for fulfilling the National Lists of Essential Medicines' requirements and the expected value of information for delaying decision-making in contexts where there are high levels of uncertainty. Further research is recommended where parameter uncertainty is significant and where the cost of conducting the research is not prohibitive.

Constructing a state-transition model for an economic evaluation of cancer treatments.

The paper gives an overview of the four fundamental elements that should be considered when constructing a Markov model of cancers, including outcome measures, health state transition, transitional probabilities, and model calibration. The construction of any model of this kind should begin by establishing transition to the death state. The probability of this transition can be estimated using overall survival data from clinical studies. Possible health states over a cycle are defined according to the natural history of diseases and treatment pathways. Validity of the constructed model is tested against real patient data and the parameters are adjusted until the survival results are consistent.

Health workforce contributions to health system development: a platform for universal health coverage.

PROBLEM: In the 1970s, Thailand was a low-income country with poor health indicators and low health service coverage. The local health infrastructure was especially weak. APPROACH: In the 1980s, measures were initiated to reduce geographical barriers to health service access, improve the health infrastructure at the district level, make essential medicines more widely available and develop a competent, committed health workforce willing to service rural areas. To ensure service accessibility, financial risk protection schemes were expanded. LOCAL SETTING: In Thailand, district hospitals were practically non-existent in the 1960s. Expansion of primary health care (PHC), especially in poor rural areas, was considered essential for attaining universal health coverage (UHC). Nationwide reforms led to important changes in a few decades. RELEVANT CHANGES: Over the past 30 years, the availability and distribution of health workers, as well as their skills and competencies, have greatly improved, along with national health indicators. Between 1980 and 2000 coverage with maternal and child health services increased substantially. By 2002, Thailand had attained UHC. Overall health system development, particularly an expanded health workforce, resulted in a functioning PHC system. LESSONS LEARNT: A competent, committed health workforce helped strengthen the PHC system at the district level. Keeping the policy focus on the development of human resources for health (HRH) for an extended period was essential, together with a holistic approach to the development of HRH, characterized by the integration of different kinds of HRH interventions and the linking of these interventions with broader efforts to strengthen other health system domains.

Attitudes toward working in rural areas of Thai medical, dental and pharmacy new graduates in 2012: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Inequity in health workforce distribution has been a national concern of the Thai health service for decades. The government has launched various policies to increase the distribution of health workforces to rural areas. However, little is known regarding the attitudes of health workers and the factors influencing their decision to work in rural areas. This study aimed to explore the current attitudes of new medical, dental and pharmacy graduates as well as determine the linkage between their characteristics and the preference for working in rural areas. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, using self-administered questionnaires, with a total of 1,225 medical, dental and pharmacy graduates. They were participants of the meeting arranged by the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) on 1-2 April 2012. Descriptive statistics using mean and percentage, and inferential statistics using logistic regression with marginal effects, were applied for data analysis. RESULTS: There were 754 doctors (44.4%), 203 dentists (42.6%) and 268 pharmacists (83.8%) enrolled in the survey. Graduates from all professions had positive views towards working in rural areas. Approximately 22% of doctors, 31% of dentists and 52% of pharmacists selected 'close proximity to hometown' as the most important reason for workplace selection. The multivariable analysis showed a variation in attributes associated with the tendency to work in rural areas across professions. In case of doctors, special track graduates had a 10% higher tendency to prefer rural work than those recruited through the national entrance examination. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of graduates chose to work in community hospitals, and attitudes towards rural work were quite positive. In-depth analysis found that factors influencing their choice varied between professions. Special track recruitment positively influenced the selection of rural workplaces among new doctors attending the MOPH annual meeting for workplace selection. This policy innovation should be applied to dentists and pharmacists as well. However, implementing a single policy without supporting strategies, or failing to consider different characteristics between professions, might not be effective. Future study of attitudes and factors contributing to the selection of, and retention in, rural service of both new graduates and in-service professionals was recommended.

Why has the Universal Coverage Scheme in Thailand achieved a pro-poor public subsidy for health care?

BACKGROUND: Thailand has achieved universal health coverage since 2002 through the implementation of the Universal Coverage Scheme (UCS) for 47 million of the population who were neither private sector employees nor government employees. A well performing UCS should achieve health equity goals in terms of health service use and distribution of government subsidy on health. With these goals in mind, this paper assesses the magnitude and trend of government health budget benefiting the poor as compared to the rich UCS members. METHOD: Benefit incidence analysis was conducted using the nationally representative household surveys, Health and Welfare Surveys, between 2003 and 2009. UCS members are grouped into five different socio-economic status using asset indexes and wealth quintiles. FINDINGS: The total government subsidy, net of direct household payment, for combined outpatient (OP) and inpatient (IP) services to public hospitals and health facilities provided to UCS members, had increased from 30 billion Baht (US$ 1 billion) in 2003 to 40-46 billion Baht in 2004-2009. In 2003 for 23% and 12% of the UCS members who belonged to the poorest and richest quintiles of the whole-country populations respectively, the share of public subsidies for OP service was 28% and 7% for the poorest and the richest quintiles, whereby for IP services the share was 27% and 6% for the poorest and richest quintiles respectively. This reflects a pro-poor outcome of public subsidies to healthcare. The OP and IP public subsidies remained consistently pro-poor in subsequent years.The pro-poor benefit incidence is determined by higher utilization by the poorest than the richest quintiles, especially at health centres and district hospitals. Thus the probability and the amount of household direct health payment for public facilities by the poorest UCS members were less than their richest counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: Higher utilization and better financial risk protection benefiting the poor UCS members are the results of extensive geographical coverage of health service infrastructure especially at district level, adequate finance and functioning primary healthcare, comprehensive benefit package and zero copayment at points of services.

Prevalence and profiles of unmet healthcare need in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: In the light of the universal healthcare coverage that was achieved in Thailand in 2002, policy makers have raised concerns about whether there is still unmet need within the population. Our objectives were to assess the annual prevalence, characteristics and reasons for unmet healthcare need in the Thai population in 2010 and to compare our findings with relevant international literature. METHODS: A standard set of OECD unmet need questionnaires was used in a nationally-representative household survey conducted in 2010 by the National Statistical Office. The prevalence of unmet need among respondents with various socio-economic characteristics was estimated to determine an inequity in the unmet need and the reasons behind it. RESULTS: The annual prevalence of unmet need for outpatient and inpatient services in 2010 was 1.4% and 0.4%, respectively. Despite this low prevalence, there are inequities with relatively higher proportion of the unmet need among Universal Coverage Scheme members, and the poor and rural populations. There was less unmet need due to cost than there was due to geographical barriers. The prevalence of unmet need due to cost and geographical barriers among the richest and poorest quintiles were comparable to those of selected OECD countries. The geographical extension of healthcare infrastructure and of the distribution of health workers is a major contributing factor to the low prevalence of unmet need. CONCLUSIONS: The low prevalence of unmet need for both outpatient and inpatient services is a result of the availability of well-functioning health services at the most peripheral level, and of the comprehensive benefit package offered free of charge by all health insurance schemes. This assessment prompts a need for regular monitoring of unmet need in nationally-representative household surveys.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of endovascular coiling and neurosurgical clipping for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: For patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), the Universal Coverage Scheme in Thailand covers the full costs of surgical and endovascular procedures except for those of embolization coils and assisting devices. Costs and effectiveness were compared between endovascular coiling and neurosurgical clipping to inform reimbursement policy decisions. METHODS: Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared between coiling and clipping using the decision tree and Markov models. Mortality and functional outcomes of clipping were derived from national and hospital databases, and relative efficacies of coiling were obtained from meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials. Risks of rebleeding were abstracted from the International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial. Costs of the primary treatments, retreatments and follow-up care as well as utilities were obtained from hospital-based data. Non-health and indirect costs were abstracted from standard cost lists. RESULTS: Coiling and clipping contributed 10.59 and 9.28 QALYs to patients aged in their 50s. Under the societal and healthcare perspectives, the incremental costs incurred by coiling compared with clipping were US$1923 and $4343, respectively, which were equal to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1470 and $3321 per QALY gained, respectively. Coiling became a cost-saving option when the costs of coil devices were reduced by 65.7%. At the country's cost-effectiveness threshold of US$5156, the probability of coiling being cost-effective was 71.3% and 65.6%, under the societal and healthcare perspectives, respectively. CONCLUSION: Endovascular treatment for aSAH is cost-effective and this evidence supports coverage by national insurance.

Trends and inequities in where women delivered their babies in 25 low-income countries: evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys.

In low-income countries, the coverage of institutional births is low. Using data from the two most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (1995-2001 and 2001-2006) for 25 low-income countries, this study examined trends in where women delivered their babies--public or private facilities or non-institutional settings. More than half of deliveries were in institutional settings in ten countries, mostly public facilities. In the other 15 countries, the majority of births were in women's homes, which was often their only option. Between the two survey periods, all five Asian countries studied (except Bangladesh) had an increase of 10-20 percentage points in institutional coverage, whereas none of the 19 sub-Saharan African countries saw an increase of more than 10 percentage points. More urban women and more in the richest (least poor) quintile gave birth in public or private facilities than rural and poorest quintile women. The rich-poor gap of institutional births was wider than the urban-rural gap. Inadequate public investment in health system infrastructure in rural areas and lack of skilled health professionals are major obstacles in reducing maternal mortality. Governments in low-income countries must invest more, especially in rural maternity services. Strengthening private, for-profit providers is not a policy choice for poor, rural communities.

Equity of access to and utilization of reproductive health services in Thailand: national Reproductive Health Survey data, 2006 and 2009.

This study assessed trends in equity of access to reproductive health services and service utilization in terms of coverage of family planning, antenatal care and skilled birth attendance in Thailand. Two health indicators were measured: the prevalence of low birthweight and exclusive breastfeeding. Equity was measured against the combined urban-rural areas and geographic regions, women's education level and quintiles of household assets index. The study used data from two nationally representative household surveys, the 2006 and 2009 Reproductive Health Surveys. Very high coverage of family planning (79.6%), universal antenatal care (98.9%) and skilled birth attendance (99.7%), with very small socioeconomic and geographic disparities, were observed. The public sector played a dominant role in maternity care (90.9% of all deliveries in 2009). The private sector also had a role among the higher educated, wealthier women living in urban areas. Public sector facilities, followed by drug stores, were a major supplier of contraception, which had a high use rate. High coverage and low inequity were the result of extensive investment in the health system by successive governments, in particular primary health care at district and sub-district levels, reaching universality by 2002. While maintaining these achievements, methodological improvements in measuring low birthweight and exclusive breastfeeding for future reproductive health surveys are recommended.

Effects of a national policy advocating rational drug use on decreases in outpatient antibiotic prescribing rates in Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the effects of a national policy advocating rational drug use (RDU), namely, the 'RDU Service Plan', starting in fiscal year 2017 and implemented by the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MOPH), on trends in antibiotic prescribing rates for outpatients. The policy was implemented subsequent to a voluntary campaign involving 136 hospitals, namely, the 'RDU Hospital Project', which was implemented during fiscal years 2014-2016. METHODS: Hospital-level antibiotic prescribing rates in fiscal years 2014-2019 for respiratory infections, acute diarrhea, and fresh wounds were aggregated for two hospital groups using equally weighted averages: early adopters of RDU activities through the RDU Hospital Project and late adopters under the RDU Service Plan. Pre-/post-policy annual changes in the prescribing levels and trends were compared between the two groups using an interrupted time-series analysis. RESULTS: In fiscal years 2014-2016, decreases in antibiotic prescribing rates for respiratory infections and acute diarrhea in both groups reflected a trend that existed before the RDU Service Plan was implemented. The immediate effect of the RDU Service Plan policy occurred in fiscal year 2017, when the prescribing level among the late adopters dropped abruptly for all three conditions with a greater magnitude than in the decrease among the early adopters, despite nonsignificant differences. The medium-term effect of the RDU Service Plan was identified through a further decreasing trend during fiscal years 2017-2019 for all conditions in both groups, except for acute diarrhea among the early adopters. CONCLUSIONS: The national policy on rational drug use effectively reduced antibiotic prescribing for common but questionable outpatient conditions.

Equity in maternal and child health in Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: To assess equity in health outcomes and interventions for maternal and child health (MCH) services in Thailand. METHODS: Women of reproductive age in 40 000 nationally representative households responded to the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey in 2005-2006. We used a concentration index (CI) to assess distribution of nine MCH indicator groups across the household wealth index. For each indicator we also compared the richest and poorest quintiles or deciles, urban and rural domiciles, and mothers or caregivers with or without secondary school education. FINDINGS: CHILD UNDERWEIGHT (CI: -0.2192; P < 0.01) and stunting (CI: -0.1767; P < 0.01) were least equitably distributed, being disproportionately concentrated among the poor; these were followed by teenage pregnancy (CI: -0.1073; P < 0.01), and child pneumonia (CI: -0.0896; P < 0.05) and diarrhoea (CI: -0.0531; P < 0.1). Distribution of the MCH interventions was fairly equitable, but richer women were more likely to receive prenatal care and delivery by a skilled health worker or in a health facility. The most equitably distributed interventions were child immunization and family planning. All undesirable health outcomes were more prevalent among rural residents, although the urban-rural gap in MCH services was small. Where mothers or caregivers had no formal education, all outcome indicators were worse than in the group with the highest level of education. CONCLUSION: Equity of coverage in key MCH services is high throughout Thailand. Inequitable health outcomes are largely due to socioeconomic factors, especially differences in the educational level of mothers or caregivers.

Budget impact analysis of the new reimbursement policy for day surgery in Thailand.

INTRODUCTION: In 2017 the Thai Ministry of Public Health proposed a new financing mechanism to promote day surgery under the Universal Coverage Scheme - the main public insurance arrangement for Thais. The key feature of the policy is health facilities performing day surgery can claim the treatment expense based on relative weight (RW) instead of adjusted RW (adjRW). Procedures for 12 diseases (so-called "candidate procedures") are eligible for the new reimbursement. The objective of this study was to assess the current day surgery situation in Thailand and analyze potential budget impact from the new policy. METHODS: A quantitative cross-section design was employed. Individual inpatient records of the Universal Coverage Scheme during 2014-2016 were analyzed. Descriptive statistics and simulation analyses were applied. The analyses were divided into three subtopics: 1) case volume and expense claim, 2) utilization across facilities, and 3) case mix index and budget impact. RESULTS: Overall, day surgery accounted for 4.8% of admissions with candidate procedures. Inguinal hernias, hemorrhoids, and common bile duct stones caused the largest sum of admission numbers and admission days. Currently, the annual reimbursement for candidate procedures treated as inpatient cases is around 290.8 million Baht (US$ 8.8 million), with about 12.4 million Baht (US$ 0.38 million) for day surgery cases. If all candidate procedures were performed as day surgery and diagnostic-related groups (DRG) version 6 was applied, the incremental budget would amount to 1.9 million Baht (US$ 58,903). CONCLUSIONS: The new reimbursement policy will likely lead to minimal budget burden. Even in the case of maximal uptake of the policy, the needed budget would increase by just 15%. The marginal budget increment was explained by the infinitesimal RW-adjRW difference. Apart from the financial measure, other qualitative aspects of the policy, such as infrastructure and health staff readiness, should be explored.

Assessing the efficiency of hospital pharmacy services in Thai public district hospitals.

The purpose of this study was to assess the efficiency of hospital pharmacy services and to determine the environmental factors affecting pharmacy service efficiency. The technical efficiency of a hospital pharmacy was assessed to evaluate the hospital's ability to use pharmacy manpower in order to produce the maximum output of the pharmacy service. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was used as an efficiency measurement. The two labor inputs were pharmacists and support personnel and the ten outputs were from four pharmacy activities: drug dispensing, drug purchasing and inventory control, patient-oriented activities, and health consumer protection services. This was used to estimate technical efficiency. A Tobit regression model was used to determine the effect of the hospital size, location, input mix of pharmacy staff, working experience of pharmacists at the study hospitals, and use of technology on the pharmacy service efficiency. Data for pharmacy service input and output quantities were obtained from 155 respondents. Nineteen percent were found to have full efficiency with a technical efficiency score of 1.00. Thirty-six percent had a technical efficiency score of 0.80 or above and 27% had a low technical efficiency score (< 0.60). The average TE score increased in respect to the hospital size (0.60, 0.71, 0.75, and 0.83 in 10, 30, 60, and 90-120 bed hospitals, respectively). Hospital size and geographic location were significantly associated with pharmacy service efficiency.

Handling uncertainty of the economic evaluation result: sensitivity analysis.

An economic evaluation of health technology and interventions often comes with uncertainty in the parameters that were used in the model. To determine sensitivity of the result obtained from a reference case analysis, researchers can employ deterministic and probabilistic approaches. This methodological guideline summarizes the principles underlying the sensitivity analysis and recommends that the probabilistic sensitivity analysis is the best method to handle the parameter uncertainty.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of policy options on first-line treatments for advanced, non-small cell lung cancer in Thailand.

OBJECTIVES: Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) have shown to be better for progression-free survival than chemotherapy as the first-line treatment for advanced, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), especially in patients with epidermal growth factor receptor mutation (EGFR M+). This study evaluates under the Thai health system context, cost-effectiveness of (A) the use of platinum doublets for all without EGFR testing, and (B) an EGFR test followed by TKIs or platinum doublets conditional on test results. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A decision analysis model was constructed to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and total cost for each option. Cancer progression and death were pooled from randomized, controlled trials. Quality of life was obtained from patient interview, using the European Quality-of-Life, 5-Dimension questionnaire. Costs associated with treatment outcomes were derived from patient chart reviews. RESULTS: Combining the EGFR test with each TKI, gefitinib, erlotinib and afatinib if M+ or otherwise platinum doublets, resulted in higher effectiveness than the use of platinum doublets for all by 0.15, 0.19 and 0.21 QALYs, respectively. Among the three TKIs, gefitinib was dominated economically by erlotinib, which incurred an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $46,783/QALY over the platinum doublets for all. Moving to the next best, afatinib resulted in the ICER of $198,961/QALY over erlotinib. Probabilities for any TKIs being cost-effective when compared with platinum doublets over a wide range of willingness to pay were modest. CONCLUSION: In Thailand, the first-line treatment for advanced NSCLC with TKIs conditional on EGFR test results was not cost-effective as compared with platinum doublets for all.