Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Test characteristics for combining non-invasive liver fibrosis staging modalities in individuals with Hepatitis C virus.

Non-invasive methods have largely replaced biopsy to identify advanced fibrosis in hepatitis C virus (HCV). Guidelines vary regarding testing strategy to balance accuracy, costs and loss to follow-up. Although individual test characteristics are well-described, data comparing the accuracy of using two tests together are limited. We calculated combined test characteristics to determine the utility of combined strategies. This study synthesizes empirical data from fibrosis staging trials and the literature to estimate test characteristics for Fibrosis-4 (FIB4), APRI or a commercial serum panel (FibroSure®), followed by transient elastography (TE) or FibroSure®. We simulated two testing strategies: (1) second test only for those with intermediate first test results (staged approach), and (2) second test for all. We summarized empiric data with multinomial distributions and used this to estimate test characteristics of each strategy on a simulated population of 10,000 individuals with 4.2% cirrhosis prevalence. Negative predictive value (NPV) for cirrhosis from a single test ranged from 98.2% (95% CB 97.6-98.8%) for FIB-4 to 99.4% (95% CB 99.0-99.8%) for TE. Using a staged approach with TE second, sensitivity for cirrhosis rose to 93.3-96.9%, NPV to 99.7-99.8%, while PPV dropped to <32%. Using TE as a second test for all minimally changed estimated test characteristics compared with the staged approach. Combining two non-invasive fibrosis tests barely improves NPV and decreases or does not change PPV compared with a single test, challenging the utility of serial testing modalities. These calculated combined test characteristics can inform best methods to identify advanced fibrosis in various populations.

A Microsimulation Study of the Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis C Virus Screening Frequencies in Hemodialysis Centers.

BACKGROUND: National guidelines recommend twice-yearly hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening for patients receiving in-center hemodialysis. However, studies examining the cost-effectiveness of HCV screening methods or frequencies are lacking. METHODS: We populated an HCV screening, treatment, and disease microsimulation model with a cohort representative of the US in-center hemodialysis population. Clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) 2018 guidelines-endorsed HCV screening frequency (every 6 months) were compared with less frequent periodic screening (yearly, every 2 years), screening only at hemodialysis initiation, and no screening. We estimated expected quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) between each screening strategy and the next less expensive alternative strategy, from a health care sector perspective, in 2019 US dollars. For each strategy, we modeled an HCV outbreak occurring in 1% of centers. In sensitivity analyses, we varied mortality, linkage to HCV cure, screening method (ribonucleic acid versus antibody testing), test sensitivity, HCV infection rates, and outbreak frequencies. RESULTS: Screening only at hemodialysis initiation yielded HCV cure rates of 79%, with an ICER of $82,739 per QALY saved compared with no testing. Compared with screening at hemodialysis entry only, screening every 2 years increased cure rates to 88% and decreased liver-related deaths by 52%, with an ICER of $140,193. Screening every 6 months had an ICER of $934,757; in sensitivity analyses using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per QALY gained, screening every 6 months was never cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: The KDIGO-recommended HCV screening interval (every 6 months) does not seem to be a cost-effective use of health care resources, suggesting that re-evaluation of less-frequent screening strategies should be considered.

The association between naloxone claims and proportion of independent vs. chain pharmacies: A longitudinal analysis of naloxone claims in the US.

BACKGROUND: Expanding access to naloxone through pharmacies is an important policy goal. Our objective was to characterize national county-level naloxone dispensing of chain versus independent pharmacies. METHODS: The primary exposure in our longitudinal analysis was the proportion of chain pharmacies in a county, identified through the US Department of Homeland Security 2010 Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data. We defined counties as having "higher proportion" of chain pharmacies if at least 50% of pharmacies were large national chains. The primary outcome was quarter-year (2016Q1-2019Q2) rate of pharmacy naloxone claims per 100,000 persons from Symphony Health at the county-level. We compared the naloxone dispensing rate between county types using two-sample t-tests. We estimated the association between county-level chain pharmacy proportion and rate of naloxone claims using a linear model with year-quarter fixed effects. RESULTS: Nearly one third of counties (n=946) were higher proportion. Higher proportion counties had a significantly higher rate of naloxone claims across the study period, in 4 of 6 urban-rural classifications, and in counties with and without naloxone access laws. The linear model confirmed that higher proportion counties had a significantly higher rate of naloxone claims, adjusting for urban/rural designation, income, population characteristics, opioid mortality rate, co-prescribing laws and naloxone access laws. CONCLUSION: In this national study, we found an association between naloxone dispensing rates and the county-level proportion of chain (versus independent) pharmacies. Incentivizing naloxone dispensing through educational, regulatory, or legal efforts may improve naloxone availability and dispensing rates - particularly in counties with proportionately high numbers of independent pharmacies.

At the intersection of trust and mistrust: A qualitative analysis of motivators and barriers to research participation at a safety-net hospital.

INTRODUCTION: The underrepresentation of Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) individuals in healthcare research limits generalizability and contributes to healthcare inequities. Existing barriers and attitudes toward research participation must be addressed to increase the representation of safety net and other underserved populations. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews with patients at an urban safety net hospital, focusing on facilitators, barriers, motivators, and preferences for research participation. We conducted direct content analysis guided by an implementation framework and used rapid analysis methods to generate final themes. RESULTS: We completed 38 interviews and identified six major themes related to preferences for engagement in research participation: (1) wide variation in research recruitment preferences; (2) logistical complexity negatively impacts willingness to participate; (3) risk contributes to hesitation toward research participation; (4) personal/community benefit, interest in study topic, and compensation serve as motivators for research participation; (5) continued participation despite reported shortcomings of informed consent process; and (6) mistrust could be overcome by relationship or credibility of information sources. CONCLUSION: Despite barriers to participation in research studies among safety-net populations, there are also facilitators that can be implemented to increase knowledge and comprehension, ease of participation, and willingness to join research studies. Study teams should vary recruitment and participation methods to ensure equal access to research opportunities. PATIENT/PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Our analysis methods and study progress were presented to individuals within the Boston Medical Center healthcare system. Through this process community engagement specialists, clinical experts, research directors, and others with significant experience working with safety-net populations supported data interpretation and provided recommendations for action following the dissemination of data.

"Community members have more impact on their neighbors than celebrities": leveraging community partnerships to build COVID-19 vaccine confidence.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines are a strong public health tool to protect against severe disease, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19. Still, inequities in COVID-19 vaccination rates and health outcomes continue to exist among Black and Latino populations. Boston Medical Center (BMC) has played a significant role in vaccinating medically underserved populations, and organized a series of community-engaged conversations to better understand community concerns regarding the COVID-19 vaccine. This paper describes the themes which resulted from these community-engaged conversations and proposes next steps for healthcare leaders. METHODS: We accessed nine publicly available recordings of the community-engaged conversations which were held between March 2021 and September 2021 and ranged from 8 to 122 attendees. Six conversations prioritized specific groups: the Haitian-Creole community, the Cape Verdean community, the Latino community, the Black Christian Faith community, guardians who care for children living with disabilities, and individuals affected by systemic lupus erythematosus. Remaining conversations targeted the general public of the Greater Boston Area. We employed a Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research-driven codebook to code our data. Our analysis utilized a modified version of qualitative rapid analysis methods. RESULTS: Five main themes emerged from these community-engaged conversations: (1) Structural factors are important barriers to COVID-19 vaccination; (2) Mistrust exists due to the negative impact of systemic oppression and perceived motivation of the government; (3) There is a desire to learn more about biological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 vaccine as well as the practical implications of being vaccinated; (4) Community leaders emphasize community engagement for delivering COVID-19 information and education and; (5) Community leaders believe that the COVID-19 vaccine is a solution to address the pandemic. CONCLUSION: This study illustrates a need for community-engaged COVID-19 vaccine messaging which reflects the nuances of the COVID-19 vaccine and pandemic without oversimplifying information. In highlighting common concerns of the Greater Boston Area which contribute to a lack of confidence in the COVID-19 vaccine, we underscore important considerations for public health and healthcare leadership in the development of initiatives which work to advance health equity.

Addressing Inequities in SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Uptake: The Boston Medical Center Health System Experience.

Academic medical centers could play an important role in increasing access to and uptake of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, especially in Black and Latino communities that have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. This article describes the vaccination program developed by the Boston Medical Center (BMC) health system (New England's largest safety-net health system), its affiliated community health centers (CHCs), and community partners. The program was based on a conceptual framework for community interventions and aimed to increase equitable access to vaccination in the hardest-hit communities through community-based sites in churches and community centers, mobile vaccination events, and vaccination on the BMC campus. Key strategies included a communication campaign featuring trusted messengers, a focus on health equity, established partnerships with community leaders and CHCs, and strong collaboration with local health departments and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts to ensure equitable allocation of the vaccine supply. Process factors involved the use of robust analytics relying on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). The vaccination program administered 109 938 first doses, with 94 703 (86%) given at community sites and 2466 (2%) given at mobile sites. Mobile vaccination events were key in reaching younger people living in locations with the highest SVIs. Challenges included the need for a robust operational infrastructure and mistrust of the health system given the long history of economic disinvestment in the surrounding community. The BMC model could serve as a blueprint for other medical centers interested in implementing programs aimed at increasing vaccine uptake during a pandemic and in developing an infrastructure to address other health-related disparities.

Population-Level Health Effects of Involuntary Displacement of People Experiencing Unsheltered Homelessness Who Inject Drugs in US Cities.

Importance: At least 500 000 people in the US experience homelessness nightly. More than 30% of people experiencing homelessness also have a substance use disorder. Involuntary displacement is a common practice in responding to unsheltered people experiencing homelessness. Understanding the health implications of displacement (eg, "sweeps," "clearings," "cleanups") is important, especially as they relate to key substance use disorder outcomes. Objective: To estimate the long-term health effects of involuntary displacement of people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in 23 US cities. Design, Setting, and Participants: A closed cohort microsimulation model that simulates the natural history of injection drug use and health outcomes among people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in 23 US cities. The model was populated with city-level data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance system and published data to make representative cohorts of people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in those cities. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected outcomes included overdose mortality, serious injection-related infections and mortality related to serious injection-related infections, hospitalizations, initiations of medications for opioid use disorder, and life-years lived over a 10-year period for 2 scenarios: "no displacement" and "continual involuntary displacement." The population-attributable fraction of continual displacement to mortality was estimated among this population. Results: Models estimated between 974 and 2175 additional overdose deaths per 10 000 people experiencing homelessness at 10 years in scenarios in which people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs were continually involuntarily displaced compared with no displacement. Between 611 and 1360 additional people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs per 10 000 people were estimated to be hospitalized with continual involuntary displacement, and there will be an estimated 3140 to 8812 fewer initiations of medications for opioid use disorder per 10 000 people. Continual involuntary displacement may contribute to between 15.6% and 24.4% of additional deaths among unsheltered people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs over a 10-year period. Conclusion and Relevance: Involuntary displacement of people experiencing homelessness may substantially increase drug-related morbidity and mortality. These findings have implications for the practice of involuntary displacement, as well as policies such as access to housing and supportive services, that could mitigate these harms.

Projected Long-Term Impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Hepatitis C Outcomes in the United States: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted access to and uptake of hepatitis C virus (HCV) care services in the United States. It is unknown how substantially the pandemic will impact long-term HCV-related outcomes. METHODS: We used a microsimulation to estimate the 10-year impact of COVID-19 disruptions in healthcare delivery on HCV outcomes including identified infections, linkage to care, treatment initiation and completion, cirrhosis, and liver-related death. We modeled hypothetical scenarios consisting of an 18-month pandemic-related disruption in HCV care starting in March 2020 followed by varying returns to pre-pandemic rates of screening, linkage, and treatment through March 2030 and compared them to a counterfactual scenario in which there was no COVID-19 pandemic or disruptions in care. We also performed alternate scenario analyses in which the pandemic disruption lasted for 12 and 24 months. RESULTS: Compared to the "no pandemic" scenario, in the scenario in which there is no return to pre-pandemic levels of HCV care delivery, we estimate 1060 fewer identified cases, 21 additional cases of cirrhosis, and 16 additional liver-related deaths per 100 000 people. Only 3% of identified cases initiate treatment and <1% achieve sustained virologic response (SVR). Compared to "no pandemic," the best-case scenario in which an 18-month care disruption is followed by a return to pre-pandemic levels, we estimated a smaller proportion of infections identified and achieving SVR. CONCLUSIONS: A recommitment to the HCV epidemic in the United States that involves additional resources coupled with aggressive efforts to screen, link, and treat people with HCV is needed to overcome the COVID-19-related disruptions.

Nutritional Supplementation Would Be Cost-Effective for Reducing Tuberculosis Incidence and Mortality in India: The Ration Optimization to Impede Tuberculosis (ROTI-TB) Model.

BACKGROUND: Undernutrition is the leading cause of tuberculosis (TB) in India and is associated with increased TB mortality. Undernutrition also decreases quality of life and economic productivity. METHODS: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of providing augmented rations to undernourished Indians through the government's Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS). We used Markov state transition models to simulate disease progression and mortality among undernourished individuals in 3 groups: general population, household contacts (HHCs) of people living with TB, and persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The models calculate costs and outcomes (TB cases, TB deaths, and disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) associated with a 2600 kcal/day diet for adults with body mass index (BMI) of 16-18.4 kg/m2 until they attain a BMI of 20 kg/m2 compared to a status quo scenario wherein TPDS rations are unchanged. We employed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to test result robustness. RESULTS: Over 5 years, augmented rations could avert 81% of TB cases and 88% of TB deaths among currently undernourished Indians. Correspondingly, this intervention could forestall 78% and 48% of TB cases and prevent 88% and 70% of deaths among undernourished HHCs and persons with HIV, respectively. Augmented rations resulted in 10-fold higher resolution of undernutrition and were highly cost-effective with (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] of $470/DALY averted). ICER was lower for HHCs ($360/DALY averted) and the HIV population ($250/DALY averted). CONCLUSIONS: A robust nutritional intervention would be highly cost-effective in reducing TB incidence and mortality while reducing chronic undernutrition in India.

Determining the lower limit of detection required for HCV viral load assay for test of cure following direct-acting antiviral-based treatment regimens: Evidence from a global data set.

Achieving global elimination of hepatitis C virus requires a substantial scale-up of testing. Point-of-care HCV viral load assays are available as an alternative to laboratory-based assays to promote access in hard to reach or marginalized populations. The diagnostic performance and lower limit of detection are important attributes of these new assays for both diagnosis and test of cure. Therefore, our objective was to determine an acceptable LLoD for detectable HCV viraemia as a test for cure, 12 weeks post-treatment (SVR12). We assembled a global data set of patients with detectable viraemia at SVR12 from observational databases from 9 countries (Egypt, the United States, United Kingdom, Georgia, Ukraine, Myanmar, Cambodia, Pakistan, Mozambique) and two pharmaceutical-sponsored clinical trial registries. We examined the distribution of HCV viral load at SVR12 and presented the 90th, 95th, 97th and 99th percentiles. We used logistic regression to assess characteristics associated with low-level virological treatment failure (defined as <1000 IU/mL). There were 5973 cases of detectable viraemia at SVR12 from the combined data set. Median detectable HCV RNA at SVR12 was 287,986 IU/mL. The level of detection for the 95th percentile was 227 IU/mL (95% CI 170-276). Females and those with minimal fibrosis were more likely to experience low-level viraemia at SVR12 compared to men (adjusted odds ratio AOR = 1.60 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30-1.97 and those with cirrhosis (AOR = 1.49 95% CI 1.15-1.93). In conclusion, an assay with a level of detection of 1000 IU/mL or greater may miss a proportion of those with low-level treatment failure.

Variation in Initiation, Engagement, and Retention on Medications for Opioid Use Disorder Based on Health Insurance Plan Design.

BACKGROUND: The association between cost-sharing and receipt of medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) is unknown. METHODS: We constructed a cohort of 10,513 commercially insured individuals with a new diagnosis of opioid use disorder and information on insurance cost-sharing in a large national deidentified claims database. We examined 4 cost-sharing measures: (1) pharmacy deductible; (2) medical service deductible; (3) pharmacy medication copay; and (4) medical office copay. We measured MOUD (naltrexone, buprenorphine, or methadone) initiation (within 14 d of diagnosis), engagement (second receipt within 34 d of first), and 6-month retention (continuous receipt without 14-d gap). We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the association between cost-sharing and MOUD initiation, engagement, and retention. We calculated total out-of-pocket costs in the 30 days following MOUD initiation for each type of MOUD. RESULTS: Of 10,513 individuals with incident opioid use disorder, 1202 (11%) initiated MOUD, 742 (7%) engaged, and 253 (2%) were retained in MOUD at 6 months. A high ($1000+) medical deductible was associated with a lower odds of initiation compared with no deductible (odds ratio: 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.74-0.98). We found no significant associations between other cost-sharing measures for initiation, engagement, or retention. Median initial 30-day out-of-pocket costs ranged from $100 for methadone to $710 for extended-release naltrexone. CONCLUSIONS: Among insurance plan cost-sharing measures, only medical services deductible showed an association with decreased MOUD initiation. Policy and benefit design should consider ways to reduce cost barriers to initiation and retention in MOUD.

Combination Therapy With Tocilizumab and Dexamethasone Cost-Effectively Reduces Coronavirus Disease 2019 Mortality.

Recent randomized trials suggest that interleukin-6 inhibitors reduce mortality due to severe coronavirus disease 2019. Using a decision tree model, we found that tocilizumab is cost-effective with an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $16 520 per quality-adjusted life year gained (95% credible interval, 10 760-51 530).

Long-term Infective Endocarditis Mortality Associated With Injection Opioid Use in the United States: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The expansion of the US opioid epidemic has led to significant increases in infections, such as infective endocarditis (IE), which is tied to injection behaviors. We aimed to estimate the population-level IE mortality rate among people who inject opioids and compare the risk of IE death against the risks of death from other causes. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of injection opioid use. We defined injection behavior profiles by both injection frequency and injection techniques. We accounted for competing risks of death and populated the model with primary and published data. We modeled cohorts of 1 million individuals with different injection behavior profiles until age 60 years. We combined model-generated estimates with published data to project the total expected number of IE deaths in the United States by 2030. RESULTS: The probabilities of death from IE by age 60 years for 20-, 30-, and 40-year-old men with high-frequency use with higher infection risk techniques compared to lower risk techniques for IE were 53.8% versus 3.7%, 51.4% versus 3.1%, and 44.5% versus 2.2%, respectively. The predicted population-level attributable fraction of 10-year mortality from IE among all risk groups was 20%. We estimated that approximately 257 800 people are expected to die from IE by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The expected burden of IE among people who inject opioids in the United States is large. Adopting a harm reduction approach, including through expansion of syringe service programs, to address injection behaviors could have a major impact on decreasing the mortality rate associated with the opioid epidemic.

HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis and Buprenorphine at a Drug Detoxification Center During the Opioid Epidemic: Opportunities and Challenges.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and buprenorphine decrease HIV acquisition. Between November, 2016 and July, 2017, we surveyed persons (N = 200) at a drug detoxification center to assess their interest in PrEP and in buprenorphine, and to examine factors associated with such interests. Over the previous 6 months, 58% (117/200) injected drugs, 87% (173/200) used opioids, 50% (85/171) had condomless sex. Only 22% (26/117) of persons who injected drugs were aware of PrEP, yet 74% (86/116) and 72% (84/116) were interested in oral or injectable PrEP, respectively. Thirty-eight percent (47/125) of persons not receiving buprenorphine or methadone expressed interest in buprenorphine. After multivariable adjustment, Latinx ethnicity was associated with interest in PrEP (aOR 3.80; 95% CI 1.37-10.53), while male gender (aOR 2.76; 95% CI 1.21-6.34) was associated with interest in buprenorphine. Opportunities exist to implement PrEP and buprenorphine within drug detoxification centers.Clinical trial registration NCT02869776. Clinicaltrials.gov https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02869776?term=Sabrina+Assoumou&cond=HIV+HCV&rank=1 .

Rapid Versus Laboratory-Based Testing for HIV and Hepatitis C at a Drug Detoxification Treatment Center: A Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: A health department survey revealed nearly half employ laboratory-based HIV and HCV testing (LBT) over rapid testing (RT) in nonhospital settings such as drug detoxification centers. LBT has higher sensitivity for acute HIV infection compared to RT but LBT is not point of care and may result in fewer diagnoses due to loss to follow-up before result delivery. METHODS: We conducted a randomized trial comparing real-world case notification of RT (Orasure) vs LBT (HIV Combo Ag/Ab EIA, HCV EIA) for HIV and HCV at a drug detoxification center. Primary outcome was receipt of test results within 2 weeks. RESULTS: Among 341 individuals screened (11/2016-7/2017), 200 met inclusion criteria; 58% injected drugs and 31% shared needles in the previous 6 months. Of the 200 randomized, 98 received RT and 102 LBT. Among all participants, 0.5% were positive for HIV and 48% for HCV; 96% received test results in the RT arm and 42% in the LBT arm (odds ratio, 28.72; 95% confidence interval, 10.27-80.31). Real-world case notification was 95% and 93% for HIV and HCV RT, respectively, compared to 42% for HIV and HCV LBT. CONCLUSIONS: RT has higher real-world case notification than LBT at drug detoxification centers.Clinical trials registration: NCT02869776.

Effect of Publicly Reported Aortic Valve Surgery Outcomes on Valve Surgery in Injection Drug- and Non-Injection Drug-Associated Endocarditis.

BACKGROUND: Injection drug use-associated infective endocarditis (IDU-IE) is rising and valve surgery is frequently indicated. The effect of initiating public outcomes reporting for aortic valve surgery on rates of valve surgery and in-hospital mortality for endocarditis is not known. METHODS: For an interrupted time series analysis, we used data from the National Inpatient Sample, a representative sample of United States inpatient hospitalizations, from January 2010 to September 2015. We included individuals aged 18-65 with an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) diagnosis of endocarditis. We defined IDU-IE using a validated combination of ICD-9 codes. We used segmented logistic regression to assess for changes in valve replacement and in-hospital mortality rates after the public reporting initiation in January 2013. RESULTS: We identified 7322 hospitalizations for IDU-IE and 23 997 for non-IDU-IE in the sample, representing 36 452 national IDU-IE admissions and 119 316 non-IDU admissions, respectively. Following the implementation of public reporting in 2013, relative to baseline trends, the odds of valve replacement decreased by 4.0% per quarter (odds ratio [OR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93-0.99), with no difference by IDU status. The odds of an in-patient death decreased by 2.0% per quarter for both IDU-IE and non-IDU-IE cases following reporting (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Initiating public reporting was associated with a significant decrease in valve surgery for all IE cases, regardless of IDU status, and a reduction in-hospital mortality for patients with IE. Patients with IE may have less access to surgery as a consequence of public reporting. To understand how reduced valve surgery impacts overall mortality, future studies should examine the postdischarge mortality rate.

Cost-effectiveness and Budgetary Impact of Hepatitis C Virus Testing, Treatment, and Linkage to Care in US Prisons.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing and treatment uptake in prisons remains low. We aimed to estimate clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness (CE), and budgetary impact (BI) of HCV testing and treatment in United States (US) prisons or linkage to care at release. METHODS: We used individual-based simulation modeling with healthcare and Department of Corrections (DOC) perspectives for CE and BI analyses, respectively. We simulated a US prison cohort at entry using published data and Washington State DOC individual-level data. We considered permutations of testing (risk factor based, routine at entry or at release, no testing), treatment (if liver fibrosis stage ≥F3, for all HCV infected or no treatment), and linkage to care (at release or no linkage). Outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALY); cases identified, treated, and cured; cirrhosis cases avoided; incremental cost-effectiveness ratios; DOC costs (2016 US dollars); and BI (healthcare cost/prison entrant) to generalize to other states. RESULTS: Compared to "no testing, no treatment, and no linkage to care," the "test all, treat all, and linkage to care at release" model increased the lifetime sustained virologic response by 23%, reduced cirrhosis cases by 54% at a DOC annual additional cost of $1440 per prison entrant, and would be cost-effective. At current drug prices, targeted testing and liver fibrosis-based treatment provided worse outcomes at higher cost or worse outcomes at higher cost per QALY gained. In sensitivity analysis, fibrosis-based treatment restrictions were cost-effective at previous higher drug costs. CONCLUSIONS: Although costly, widespread testing and treatment in prisons is considered to be of good value at current drug prices.

Cost-effectiveness of Hepatitis C Virus Treatment Models for People Who Inject Drugs in Opioid Agonist Treatment Programs.

BACKGROUND: Many people who inject drugs in the United States have chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV). On-site treatment in opiate agonist treatment (OAT) programs addresses HCV treatment barriers, but few evidence-based models exist. METHODS: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of HCV treatment models for OAT patients using data from a randomized trial conducted in Bronx, New York. We used a decision analytic model to compare self-administered individual treatment (SIT), group treatment (GT), directly observed therapy (DOT), and no intervention for a simulated cohort with the same demographic characteristics of trial participants. We projected long-term outcomes using an established model of HCV disease progression and treatment (hepatitis C cost-effectiveness model: HEP-CE). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) are reported in 2016 US$/quality-adjusted life years (QALY), discounted 3% annually, from the healthcare sector and societal perspectives. RESULTS: For those assigned to SIT, we projected 89% would ever achieve a sustained viral response (SVR), with 7.21 QALYs and a $245 500 lifetime cost, compared to 22% achieving SVR, with 5.49 QALYs and a $161 300 lifetime cost, with no intervention. GT was more efficient than SIT, resulting in 0.33 additional QALYs and a $14 100 lower lifetime cost per person, with an ICER of $34 300/QALY, compared to no intervention. DOT was slightly more effective and costly than GT, with an ICER > $100 000/QALY, compared to GT. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, GT and DOT were preferred in 91% of simulations at a threshold of <$100 000/QALY; conclusions were similar from the societal perspective. CONCLUSIONS: All models were associated with high rates of achieving SVR, compared to standard care. GT and DOT treatment models should be considered as cost-effective alternatives to SIT.

HCV Testing and Treatment in a National Sample of US Federally Qualified Health Centers during the Opioid Epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Federally qualified health centers (FQHCs) serve diverse communities in the United States (U.S.) and could function as important venues to diagnose and treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. OBJECTIVE: To determine HCV testing proportion and factors associated with treatment initiation, and treatment outcomes in a large sample of FQHCs around the U.S. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using electronic health records of three hundred and forty-one FQHC clinical sites participating in the OCHIN network in 19 U.S. states. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients (≥ 18 years of age) seen between January 01, 2012, and June 30, 2017. MAIN MEASURES: HCV testing proportion, stratified by diagnosis of opioid use disorder (OUD); treatment initiation rates; and sustained virologic response (SVR), defined as undetectable HCV RNA 6 months after treatment initiation. KEY RESULTS: Of the 1,508,525 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 88,384 (5.9%) were tested for HCV, and 8694 (9.8%) of individuals tested had reactive results. Of the 6357 with HCV RNA testing, 4092 (64.4%) had detectable RNA. Twelve percent of individuals with chronic HCV and evaluable data initiated treatment. Of those, 87% reached SVR. Having commercial insurance (aOR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.46-3.05), older age (aOR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.09), and being Hispanic/Latino (aOR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.38-2.53) or Asian/Pacific Islander (aOR, 2.47; 95% CI, 1.46-4.19) were independently associated with higher odds of treatment initiation after multivariable adjustment. In contrast, women (aOR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.60-0.97) and the uninsured (aOR, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.09-0.25) were less likely to initiate treatment. Only 8% of individuals with chronic HCV were tested for HIV, and 15% of individuals with identified OUD were tested for HCV. CONCLUSIONS: Fewer than 20% of individuals with identified OUD were tested for HCV. SVR was lower than findings in other real-world cohorts. Measures to improve outcomes should be considered with the expansion of HCV management into community clinics.