Prevalence and risk factors for chronic kidney disease in primary health care in the southern region of New Zealand.

AIM: While the prevalence of end stage kidney disease in New Zealand (NZ) is well defined, the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in NZ is unknown. To estimate the prevalence of and risk factors for CKD in the southern region of New Zealand. METHODS: A retrospective electronic health record cohort study using data from the Southern Primary Care register covering 94% of the population. Patients, 20 years or older were identified and linked to laboratory results for serum creatinine and urinary albumin excretion. Chronic kidney disease was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 (G3-5) or the presence of albuminuria of greater than 3 mg/mmol (A2-3). Diabetes was identified from a national virtual diabetes database. From this, we estimated the prevalence of CKD by age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation and the presence of diabetes mellitus. RESULTS: Of a total adult population of 211 980, 159 799 had a serum creatinine checked and 27 905 had an estimate of albuminuria. The estimated prevalence of CKD was 11.8%. 6.3% of total population had CKD stage G3a, 2.4% G3b, 0.8% G4, 0.2% G5, 1.8% A2 albuminuria and 0.3% A3 albuminuria. Increasing age, female sex, ethnic group, social deprivation and diabetes mellitus were associated with an increased risk of CKD. 11 351 patients had a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus and were almost universally tested (99.3%) for CKD. The presence of albuminuria was strongly correlated with ethnic group, male sex and living in a deprived area. The retrospective electronic health record study with associated selection and testing bias are potential limitations of the present study. CONCLUSION: Chronic kidney disease prevalence in this region appears to be similar to other reported populations. The majority of those at risk for CKD were tested for reduced eGFR. The presence of albuminuria, an integral component of CKD diagnostic criteria, was under utilized in the non-diabetic population.

Understanding medicines with a propensity to increase the risk of heart failure: Combining existing knowledge with targeted population assessment.

PURPOSE: Existing knowledge of medicines that increase the risk of an adverse event may be corroborated and augmented by population studies specifically assessing the risk associated with the concurrent use of these medicines and use by patients with existing comorbidity. An American Heart Association review recently identified a variety of medicines that may cause or exacerbate heart failure (HF), many with evidence from limited evaluation of population data. We assessed the risk of first-time HF associated with the use of 50 of these medicines by New Zealand's primary care population. METHODS: Case-control study utilising national pharmaceutical use and hospital admissions data 2007-2015; 22,989 patients with first-time HF 2008-2015 were matched with 114 498 control patients. The primary outcome was first-time HF and its association with medicine exposure in the prior 90 days, estimated using conditional logistic regression. We also assessed the risk associated with new use of medicines in the prior month, concurrent use, and in patients with existing comorbidity. RESULTS: Eleven medicines were significantly associated with HF with several other infrequently used medicines providing signals of increased risk. A high risk was associated with the use of salbutamol (adjusted odds ratio 2.63; 95% CI, 2.48-2.78), clozapine (2.70; 2.46-4.98), diltiazem (1.52; 1.44-1.60), indomethacin (2.51; 1.54-4.10), pioglitazone (1.50; 1.16-1.95), and antifungal medicines. New use of medicines and use of medicine combinations increased this risk in many cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides further evidence to inform cautious use of these medicines in patients with HF or at risk of developing HF.

Perceptions of primary care and hospital clinicians on the use of the Ankle Brachial Pressure Index in general practice.

INTRODUCTION Peripheral arterial disease is an increasingly prevalent chronic illness globally. The Ankle Brachial Pressure Index (ABPI) is a well-established, simple, relatively quick and non-invasive assessment useful in diagnosing and quantifying peripheral arterial disease. ABPIs may be currently underutilised in general practice. AIM To explore perspectives of health professionals on the role of the ABPI. METHODS One-to-one interviews were conducted with health professionals using snowball sampling. Questions centred around interviewees' education on, experience with and view on the usefulness of the ABPI in general practice. Interviews were recorded and used for thematic analysis. RESULTS Participants consisted of 13 health-care professionals: nine general practitioners, two vascular surgeons and two allied health professionals. Most general practitioners interviewed identified benefits of ABPIs use in primary care, including aiding peripheral arterial disease diagnostics, management, referral and triage. No general practitioners stated they had ever had formal training in undertaking ABPIs. Two of the nine general practitioners stated regular ABPI use in their practice. Participants who did not use ABPIs identified practical barriers to its use in general practice, including cost of equipment, length of time needed and perceived low patient need to justify cost. All interviewees agreed that there was a role for ABPI use in the community if barriers were overcome. DISCUSSION There was consensus among general practitioners that ABPI use is beneficial. Many general practitioners named similar practical barriers to more common use of ABPIs in general practice. They saw a role for ABPIs in primary care, although it may be more practical as a tool for specialised individual clinicians to use for communities, given practical barriers of cost, time and perceived low patient need. Formal training could be considered, as none of the interviewed general practitioners had ever had any.

Trends in Outpatient Prescription Medicine Use in New Zealand Children 2010-2015: A National Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Research examining trends in the outpatient prescription medicine use of New Zealand children is limited. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to provide an overview of prescription medicine use in New Zealand children and assess changing patterns in use from 2010 to 2015. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study including all New Zealand primary care-registered children aged < 18 years using data from the national pharmaceutical claims database. We calculated the prevalence of use within four age groups in each year by anatomical therapeutic class, therapeutic group and drug. Rate ratios were calculated to compare the prevalence of use in 2010 and 2015. RESULTS: In total, 1,496,026 children with a mean of 2.7 years of potential drug exposure were included. The overall prevalence of drug use was 70% in 2010 and 73% in 2015. In 2015, medicine use was highest in children aged < 2 years (90%) and lowest in children aged 12-17 years (65%). Antibacterials, analgesics, topical corticosteroids, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and antihistamines were the most widely used medicines. The prevalence of use of systemic and topical antibiotics decreased by 2 and 10%, respectively, between 2010 and 2015, but there was increased use of analgesics (10%), NSAIDs (39%), antihistamines (15%) and antinausea and vertigo agents (306%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate areas for further research focusing on inappropriate prescribing to children and safety issues in children's medicine use. Monitoring changing patterns of use over time is important for the evaluation of effective therapies in children and any potential harmful consequences of prescribing.

Atrial fibrillation in New Zealand primary care: Prevalence, risk factors for stroke and the management of thromboembolic risk.

Background Atrial fibrillation is a major risk factor for stroke and heart disease but there is limited information on its prevalence in New Zealand primary care or the treatment provided to manage thromboembolic risk. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of atrial fibrillation, assess patient risk for thromboembolism and evaluate the appropriateness of risk reduction using antiplatelet and oral anticoagulation therapy. Design A retrospective cohort study utilising electronic medical records for 739,000 patients registered with 170 general practices in 2014. Methods Patient diagnoses and prescriptions from 2010-2014 were analysed to identify patients with atrial fibrillation in 2014 and co-morbidities included in the CHA2DS2-VASc algorithm. Adjusted prevalence of atrial fibrillation by patient demographic group and the proportion of patients following recommended antithrombotic therapy were calculated. Results 12,712 patients were identified with AF (1.72%, 95% confidence interval 1.69%-1.75%). Prevalence was significantly higher for Maori (odds ratio 1.91, 95% confidence interval 1.80-2.03) than Europeans after adjusting for age, sex, deprivation and clinical risk factors. Stroke risk for Maori and Pacific Island patients was higher than for Europeans across all age groups. Of the 10,406 patients (81.9%) at high risk for thromboembolism, 60.5% were using anticoagulants, 24.1% aspirin monotherapy and 15.4% neither anticoagulants nor aspirin. Oral anticoagulants were used by 31.5% of patients at low risk (CHA2DS2-VASc <2). Conclusions Oral anticoagulants are under-utilised in the management of thromboembolic risk in high risk patients with atrial fibrillation. Better promotion of guideline recommendations for the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation may be required to improve clinician and patient decision-making.

A Pharmacoepidemiology Database System for Monitoring Risk Due to the Use of Medicines by New Zealand Primary Care Patients.

INTRODUCTION: The use of large record-linked healthcare databases for drug safety research and surveillance is now accepted practice. New Zealand's standardized national healthcare datasets provide the potential to automate the conduct of pharmacoepidemiological studies to provide rapid validation of medicine safety signals. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to describe the methodology undertaken by a semi-automated computer system developed to rapidly assess risk due to drug exposure in New Zealand's population of primary care patients and to compare results from three studies with previously published findings. METHODS: Data from three national databases were linked at the patient level in the automated studies. A retrospective nested case-control design was used to evaluate risk for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), acute kidney failure (AKF), and serious arrhythmia associated with individual medicines, therapeutic classes of medicines, and concurrent use of medicines from multiple therapeutic classes. RESULTS: The patient cohort available for each study included 5,194,256 patients registered between 2007 and 2014, with a total of 34,630,673 patient-years at risk. An increased risk for UGIB was associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 4.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.90-4.43, p < 0.001) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (AOR 1.39, 95% CI 1.20-1.62, p < 0.001); an increased risk for AKF was associated with NSAIDs (AOR 1.78, 95% CI 1.73-1.83, p < 0.001) and proton pump inhibitors (AOR 1.78, 95% CI 1.72-1.83, p < 0.001); and an increased risk for serious arrhythmia was associated with fluoroquinolones (AOR 1.38, 95% CI 1.26-151, p < 0.001) and penicillins (AOR 1.69, 95% CI 1.61-1.77, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Automated case-control studies using New Zealand's healthcare datasets can replicate associations of risk with drug exposure consistent with previous findings. Their speed of conduct enables systematic monitoring of risk for adverse events associated with a wide range of medicines.

Risk stratification of New Zealand general practice patients for emergency admissions in the next year: adapting the PEONY model for use in New Zealand.

INTRODUCTION Patient-centred case management programmes in general practice are needed for patients at high risk for emergency admissions to hospital. AIM To adapt and assess the Predicting Emergency Admissions Over the Next Year (PEONY) model for use in New Zealand to provide risk stratification of general practice patients aged ≥40 years for emergency hospital admissions in the next year. METHODS A retrospective observational cohort study modelling 2008-2010 hospital utilisation and medicine use was undertaken to estimate for each patient a risk of emergency admissions in 2011. Health care data were integrated from four national data collections relating to general practice patient registers, hospital admissions, pharmacy dispensed medicines, and mortality. Logistic regression was used to estimate coefficients for variables in the model. Model performance was assessed by calculating its positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, and specificity at incremental risk thresholds and receiver operating characteristic. RESULTS The patient cohort included 1,409,506 registered patients; 154,892 (11.0%) had an emergency admission in the follow-up year. Patient age, sex, ethnic group, deprivation status, prior emergency admissions and use of medicines for chronic conditions were all strong predictors of admissions in the next year. The model's PPV for the validation dataset was 58.2% for patients with risk ≥ 50%, and the area under its receiver operating curve = 0.72. DISCUSSION The PEONY model provides an effective methodology for stratifying New Zealand general practice patients' risk for future emergency admissions. High-risk patients may benefit from patient-centred case management programs to address risk and reduce unplanned admissions.

Using an Electronic Decision Support Tool to Reduce Inappropriate Polypharmacy and Optimize Medicines: Rationale and Methods.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy and inappropriate continuation of medicines can lead to a significant risk of adverse drug events and drug interactions with patient harm and escalating health care costs as a result. Thorough review of patients' medications focusing on the need for each drug can reduce the potential for harm. Limitations in performing effective medicine reviews in practice include consultation time constraints and funding for pharmacy services. We will aim to overcome these problems by designing an automatic electronic decision support tool (the medicines optimization/review and evaluation (MORE) module) that is embedded in general practice electronic records systems. The tool will focus on medicines optimization and reducing polypharmacy to aid prescribers in reviewing medicines and improve patient outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study are: (1) to develop an electronic decision support tool to assist prescribers in performing clinical medication reviews with a particular focus on patients experiencing multimorbidity and polypharmacy, and (2) evaluate and assess the use of the electronic decision support tool, providing pilot data on its usefulness in supporting prescribers during consultations with patients. METHODS: The first three study phases involve development of clinical rules outlining clinical interventions and the creation and validation of the MORE decision support tool. Phase four is a community-based, single-blind, prospective, 6-month controlled trial involving two interventions and two control general practices, matched for practice demographics. We will be measuring the number of times prescribers engage with the tool, total number of interventions suggested by the tool, and total number of times prescribers change medicines in response to recommendations. There will also be prospective follow-up of patients in the intervention group to examine whether changes to medications are upheld, and to determine the number of hospitalizations or emergency department visits within 6 months of a medicine intervention. Comparisons between control and intervention practices will measure the changes in proportions of patients with polypharmacy and inappropriately prescribed medicines before and after the introduction of the electronic decision support tool, proportions of patients receiving appropriate treatment in each practice, and changed, maintained, or improved health status, hospitalizations, and deaths in the study year. Initiation rates of inappropriately prescribed medicines will be measured as a secondary outcome. As well as external assessment of the extent of use and application of the tool, prescribers will receive monthly practice progress reports detailing the proportion of their patients experiencing polypharmacy and taking inappropriately prescribed medicines identified for review. RESULTS: Phase one has now been completed and the decision support tool is under development. Final data analysis is expected to be available in December 2016. CONCLUSIONS: This study will establish whether the MORE decision support tool stands up to real world conditions and promotes changes in prescribing practice.

Inbreeding uncovers fundamental differences in the genetic load affecting male and female fertility in a butterfly.

Inbreeding depression is most pronounced for traits closely associated with fitness. The traditional explanation is that natural selection eliminates deleterious mutations with additive or dominant effects more effectively than recessive mutations, leading to directional dominance for traits subject to strong directional selection. Here we report the unexpected finding that, in the butterfly Bicyclus anynana, male sterility contributes disproportionately to inbreeding depression for fitness (complete sterility in about half the sons from brother-sister matings), while female fertility is insensitive to inbreeding. The contrast between the sexes for functionally equivalent traits is inconsistent with standard selection arguments, and suggests that trait-specific developmental properties and cryptic selection play crucial roles in shaping genetic architecture. There is evidence that spermatogenesis is less developmentally stable than oogenesis, though the unusually high male fertility load in B. anynana additionally suggests the operation of complex selection maintaining male sterility recessives. Analysis of the precise causes of inbreeding depression will be needed to generate a model that reliably explains variation in directional dominance and reconciles the gap between observed and expected genetic loads carried by populations. This challenging evolutionary puzzle should stimulate work on the occurrence and causes of sex differences in fertility load.

Dunedin's free clinic: an exploration of its model of care using case study methodology.

INTRODUCTION: Models of care are important therapeutic modalities for achieving the goals of health care teams, but they are seldom explicitly stated or investigated. AIM: To describe the model of care at Dunedin's free clinic, and assess whether this model catered to the particular needs of enrolled patients. METHODS: A mixed methods study was conducted using case study methodology to construct the clinic's model of care from multiple data sources, and to create a profile of patients' needs. A nested case study of patients with diabetes examined patients' social vulnerability characteristics. The pattern matching analytic technique was used to assess the degree of alignment between the model of care and patients' needs. RESULTS: Patients were not only high users of both primary and secondary health care, but also of justice and social welfare sector services. The care of patients with diabetes was complicated by coexisting social vulnerability and medical comorbidities. Surveyed patients placed high value on interpersonal dimensions of care, the Christian ethos of the clinic, and the wider range of services available. DISCUSSION: This study suggests a degree of 'fit' between the clinic's model of care and the needs of enrolled patients. A model of care that caters to the needs of patients with complex needs is important for securing their engagement in health services.

Fish product mislabelling: failings of traceability in the production chain and implications for illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing.

Increasing consumer demand for seafood, combined with concern over the health of our oceans, has led to many initiatives aimed at tackling destructive fishing practices and promoting the sustainability of fisheries. An important global threat to sustainable fisheries is Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing, and there is now an increased emphasis on the use of trade measures to prevent IUU-sourced fish and fish products from entering the international market. Initiatives encompass new legislation in the European Union requiring the inclusion of species names on catch labels throughout the distribution chain. Such certification measures do not, however, guarantee accuracy of species designation. Using two DNA-based methods to compare species descriptions with molecular ID, we examined 386 samples of white fish, or products labelled as primarily containing white fish, from major UK supermarket chains. Species specific real-time PCR probes were used for cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) to provide a highly sensitive and species-specific test for the major species of white fish sold in the UK. Additionally, fish-specific primers were used to sequence the forensically validated barcoding gene, mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (COI). Overall levels of congruence between product label and genetic species identification were high, with 94.34% of samples correctly labelled, though a significant proportion in terms of potential volume, were mislabelled. Substitution was usually for a cheaper alternative and, in one case, extended to a tropical species. To our knowledge, this is the first published study encompassing a large-scale assessment of UK retailers, and if representative, indicates a potentially significant incidence of incorrect product designation.