Beyond the median: Estimating survival times for patients starting endocrine therapy for estrogen receptor-positive, metastatic breast cancer from recent randomized trials.

AIM: To estimate scenarios for survival for patients with estrogen receptor (ER) positive, metastatic breast cancer (MBC) and to help communicate prognosis to patients starting endocrine therapy (ET) METHODS: We searched for randomized trials of ET for ER-positive MBC and extracted the following percentiles (representative survival scenarios) from each overall survival (OS) curve: 90th (worst-case), 75th (lower-typical), 50th (median), 25th (upper-typical), and 10th (best-case). We then assessed the accuracy of estimating these percentiles for each OS curve by multiplying the median OS by four simple multiples: 0.25 (to estimate the 90th percentile), 0.5 (75th), 2 (25th), and 3 (10th). Estimates were deemed accurate if it fell within 0.75-1.33 times the actual value. RESULTS: We identified 25 trials with 10,566 patients. The median OS (interquartile range) was: 61.3 months (53.4-64.8) for first-line ET with cyclin-dependant kinase 4/6 inhibitors (four treatment groups); 42.6 months (40.9-50.4) for first-line ET alone (21 treatment groups) and 29.2 months (24.8-33.4) for subsequent line ET (19 treatment groups). Simple multiples of the median OS accurately estimated the 90th percentile in 80%; 75th percentile in 93%; and 25th percentile in 76% of curves. The 10th percentile was only available for four OS curves and could not be evaluated. CONCLUSION: Simple multiples of the median OS are a helpful and accurate method to assist in estimating and discussing scenarios for survival for MBC patients starting ET. Longer follow-up of trials is required to help clinicians estimate the best-case scenario.

Geographical distribution and spatio-temporal patterns of hospitalization due to dengue infection at a leading specialist hospital in Malaysia.

Increasing numbers of dengue infection worldwide have led to a rise in deaths due to complications caused by this disease. We present here a cross-sectional study of dengue patients who attended the Emergency and Trauma Department of Ampang Hospital, one of Malaysia's leading specialist hospitals. The objective was to search for potential clustering of severe dengue, in space and/or time, among the annual admissions with the secondary objective to describe the spatio-temporal pattern of all dengue cases admitted to this hospital. The dengue status of the patients was confirmed serologically with the geographic location of the patients determined by residency, but not more specific than the street level. A total of 1165 dengue patients were included in the analysis using SaTScan software. The mean age of these patients was 27.8 years, with a standard deviation of 14.2 years and an age range from 1 to 77 years, among whom 54 (4.6%) were cases of severe dengue. A cluster of general dengue cases was identified occurring from October to December in the study year of 2015 but the inclusion of severe dengue in that cluster was not statistically significant (P=0.862). The standardized incidence ratio was 1.51. General presence of dengue cases was, however, detected to be concentrated at the end of the year, which should be useful for hospital planning and management if this pattern holds.