T helper 2 cells control monocyte to tissue-resident macrophage differentiation during nematode infection of the pleural cavity.

The recent revolution in tissue-resident macrophage biology has resulted largely from murine studies performed in C57BL/6 mice. Here, using both C57BL/6 and BALB/c mice, we analyze immune cells in the pleural cavity. Unlike C57BL/6 mice, naive tissue-resident large-cavity macrophages (LCMs) of BALB/c mice failed to fully implement the tissue-residency program. Following infection with a pleural-dwelling nematode, these pre-existing differences were accentuated with LCM expansion occurring in C57BL/6, but not in BALB/c mice. While infection drove monocyte recruitment in both strains, only in C57BL/6 mice were monocytes able to efficiently integrate into the resident pool. Monocyte-to-macrophage conversion required both T cells and interleukin-4 receptor alpha (IL-4Rα) signaling. The transition to tissue residency altered macrophage function, and GATA6+ tissue-resident macrophages were required for host resistance to nematode infection. Therefore, during tissue nematode infection, T helper 2 (Th2) cells control the differentiation pathway of resident macrophages, which determines infection outcome.

The lung environment controls alveolar macrophage metabolism and responsiveness in type 2 inflammation.

Fine control of macrophage activation is needed to prevent inflammatory disease, particularly at barrier sites such as the lungs. However, the dominant mechanisms that regulate the activation of pulmonary macrophages during inflammation are poorly understood. We found that alveolar macrophages (AlvMs) were much less able to respond to the canonical type 2 cytokine IL-4, which underpins allergic disease and parasitic worm infections, than macrophages from lung tissue or the peritoneal cavity. We found that the hyporesponsiveness of AlvMs to IL-4 depended upon the lung environment but was independent of the host microbiota or the lung extracellular matrix components surfactant protein D (SP-D) and mucin 5b (Muc5b). AlvMs showed severely dysregulated metabolism relative to that of cavity macrophages. After removal from the lungs, AlvMs regained responsiveness to IL-4 in a glycolysis-dependent manner. Thus, impaired glycolysis in the pulmonary niche regulates AlvM responsiveness during type 2 inflammation.

Dysregulation of the miR-30c/DLL4 axis by circHIPK3 is essential for KSHV lytic replication.

Non-coding RNA (ncRNA) regulatory networks are emerging as critical regulators of gene expression. These intricate networks of ncRNA:ncRNA interactions modulate multiple cellular pathways and impact the development and progression of multiple diseases. Herpesviruses, including Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus, are adept at utilising ncRNAs, encoding their own as well as dysregulating host ncRNAs to modulate virus gene expression and the host response to infection. Research has mainly focused on unidirectional ncRNA-mediated regulation of target protein-coding transcripts; however, we identify a novel host ncRNA regulatory network essential for KSHV lytic replication in B cells. KSHV-mediated upregulation of the host cell circRNA, circHIPK3, is a key component of this network, functioning as a competing endogenous RNA of miR-30c, leading to increased levels of the miR-30c target, DLL4. Dysregulation of this network highlights a novel mechanism of cell cycle control during KSHV lytic replication in B cells. Importantly, disruption at any point within this novel ncRNA regulatory network has a detrimental effect on KSHV lytic replication, highlighting the essential nature of this network and potential for therapeutic intervention.

CD11c identifies microbiota and EGR2-dependent MHCII+ serous cavity macrophages with sexually dimorphic fate in mice.

The murine serous cavities contain a rare and enigmatic population of short-lived F4/80lo MHCII+ macrophages but what regulates their development, survival, and fate is unclear. Here, we show that mature F4/80lo MHCII+ peritoneal macrophages arise after birth, but that this occurs largely independently of colonization by microbiota. Rather, microbiota specifically regulate development of a subpopulation of CD11c+ cells that express the immunoregulatory cytokine RELM-α, are reliant on the transcription factor EGR2, and develop independently of the growth factor CSF1. Furthermore, we demonstrate that intrinsic expression of RELM-α, a signature marker shared by CD11c+ and CD11c- F4/80lo MHCII+ cavity macrophages, regulates survival and differentiation of these cells in the peritoneal cavity in a sex-specific manner. Thus, we identify a previously unappreciated diversity in serous cavity F4/80lo MHCII+ macrophages that is regulated by microbiota, and describe a novel sex and site-specific function for RELM-α in regulating macrophage endurance that reveals the unique survival challenge presented to monocyte-derived macrophages by the female peritoneal environment.

A population of naive-like CD4+ T cells stably polarized to the TH 1 lineage.

T-bet is the lineage-specifying transcription factor for CD4+ TH 1 cells. T-bet has also been found in other CD4+ T cell subsets, including TH 17 cells and Treg, where it modulates their functional characteristics. However, we lack information on when and where T-bet is expressed during T cell differentiation and how this impacts T cell differentiation and function. To address this, we traced the ontogeny of T-bet-expressing cells using a fluorescent fate-mapping mouse line. We demonstrate that T-bet is expressed in a subset of CD4+ T cells that have naïve cell surface markers and transcriptional profile and that this novel cell population is phenotypically and functionally distinct from previously described populations of naïve and memory CD4+ T cells. Naïve-like T-bet-experienced cells are polarized to the TH 1 lineage, predisposed to produce IFN-γ upon cell activation, and resist repolarization to other lineages in vitro and in vivo. These results demonstrate that lineage-specifying factors can polarize T cells in the absence of canonical markers of T cell activation and that this has an impact on the subsequent T-helper response.

CREB1 activation promotes human papillomavirus oncogene expression and cervical cancer cell transformation.

Human papillomaviruses (HPVs) infect the oral and anogenital mucosa and can cause cancer. The high-risk (HR)-HPV oncoproteins, E6 and E7, hijack cellular factors to promote cell proliferation, delay differentiation and induce genomic instability, thus predisposing infected cells to malignant transformation. cAMP response element (CRE)-binding protein 1 (CREB1) is a master transcription factor that can function as a proto-oncogene, the abnormal activity of which is associated with multiple cancers. However, little is known about the interplay between HPV and CREB1 activity in cervical cancer or the productive HPV lifecycle. We show that CREB is activated in productively infected primary keratinocytes and that CREB1 expression and phosphorylation is associated with the progression of HPV+ cervical disease. The depletion of CREB1 or inhibition of CREB1 activity results in decreased cell proliferation and reduced expression of markers of epithelial to mesenchymal transition, coupled with reduced migration in HPV+ cervical cancer cell lines. CREB1 expression is negatively regulated by the tumor suppressor microRNA, miR-203a, and CREB1 phosphorylation is controlled through the MAPK/MSK pathway. Crucially, CREB1 directly binds the viral promoter to upregulate transcription of the E6/E7 oncogenes, establishing a positive feedback loop between the HPV oncoproteins and CREB1. Our findings demonstrate the oncogenic function of CREB1 in HPV+ cervical cancer and its relationship with the HPV oncogenes.

The role of the host gut microbiome in the pathophysiology of schistosomiasis.

The pathophysiology of schistosomiasis is linked to the formation of fibrous granulomas around eggs that become trapped in host tissues, particularly the intestines and liver, during their migration to reach the lumen of the vertebrate gut. While the development of Schistosoma egg-induced granulomas is the result of finely regulated crosstalk between egg-secreted antigens and host immunity, evidence has started to emerge of the likely contribution of an additional player-the host gut microbiota-to pathological processes that culminate with the formation of these tissue lesions. Uncovering the role(s) of schistosome-mediated changes in gut microbiome composition and function in granuloma formation and, more broadly, in the pathophysiology of schistosomiasis, will shed light on the mechanisms underlying this three-way parasite-host-microbiome interplay. Such knowledge may, in turn, pave the way towards the discovery of novel therapeutic targets and control strategies.

Synthesis of the Marine Alkaloid Cylindricine C and Serendipitous Synthesis of Its 2,13-Di-epi Stereoisomer.

A new approach to the marine alkaloid cylindricine C afforded its previously unreported (±)-2,13-di-epi stereoisomer as the major product along with a minor amount of the racemic parent alkaloid. Key steps included a stereoselective dianion alkylation of a monoester of 1,2-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid and an annulation based on the tandem conjugate addition of a primary amine to an acetylenic sulfone, followed by intramolecular acylation of the resulting sulfone-stabilized carbanion. The cis-azadecalin moiety thus formed, comprising the cyclohexane A-ring and enaminone B-ring of the products, was further elaborated by the selenenyl chloride-induced cyclofunctionalization of a pendant butenyl substituent with the enaminone moiety, followed by a seleno-Pummerer reaction. Desulfonylation and enaminone reduction afforded the final products. Molecular modeling and X-ray crystallography provided further insight into these processes.

Improving rural health care reduces illegal logging and conserves carbon in a tropical forest.

Tropical forest loss currently exceeds forest gain, leading to a net greenhouse gas emission that exacerbates global climate change. This has sparked scientific debate on how to achieve natural climate solutions. Central to this debate is whether sustainably managing forests and protected areas will deliver global climate mitigation benefits, while ensuring local peoples' health and well-being. Here, we evaluate the 10-y impact of a human-centered solution to achieve natural climate mitigation through reductions in illegal logging in rural Borneo: an intervention aimed at expanding health care access and use for communities living near a national park, with clinic discounts offsetting costs historically met through illegal logging. Conservation, education, and alternative livelihood programs were also offered. We hypothesized that this would lead to improved health and well-being, while also alleviating illegal logging activity within the protected forest. We estimated that 27.4 km2 of deforestation was averted in the national park over a decade (∼70% reduction in deforestation compared to a synthetic control, permuted P = 0.038). Concurrently, the intervention provided health care access to more than 28,400 unique patients, with clinic usage and patient visitation frequency highest in communities participating in the intervention. Finally, we observed a dose-response in forest change rate to intervention engagement (person-contacts with intervention activities) across communities bordering the park: The greatest logging reductions were adjacent to the most highly engaged villages. Results suggest that this community-derived solution simultaneously improved health care access for local and indigenous communities and sustainably conserved carbon stocks in a protected tropical forest.

The posterior crescent sign on MRI and MR arthrography: is it a marker of hip dysplasia and instability?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prevalence of the 'posterior crescent sign' in symptomatic patients referred for MRI/MR arthrogram of the hip and identify any correlation with imaging features of joint pathology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective imaging assessment of a cohort of 1462 hips, from 1380 included MR examinations (82 bilateral) retrieved from a search of all examinations in patients 16-50 years old from June 2018 to June 2021, with median age 45.8 years (range 17.8-50.0) and 936 hips (64%) in women. Radiographic and MR findings related to hip dysplasia, femoroacetabular impingement and osteoarthritis were assessed. RESULTS: Fifty-one hips (3.5%) were positive for the posterior crescent sign, median age of 45.8 years (range 17.8-50.0) and 29 (58%) in women. Radiographic findings included the following: mean lateral centre edge angle (LCEA) 22.2° (± 7.8°) with LCEA < 20° in 15 (31%) and LCEA 20-25° in 17 (35%) and mean acetabular index (AI) of 13.1° (± 5.8°) with AI > 13° in 22 (45%). MR findings included the following: mean anterior acetabular sector angle (AASA) 54.3° (± 9.8°), mean posterior acetabular sector angle (PASA) 92.7° (± 7.0°), labral tear at 3-4 o'clock in 20 (39%), high-grade acetabular chondral loss in 42 (83%) and ligamentum teres abnormality in 20 (39%). CONCLUSION: The posterior crescent sign occurs in 3.5% of symptomatic young and middle-aged adults on MR. It is associated with overt and borderline hip dysplasia and other findings of hip instability. It is also associated with osteoarthritis in some cases and should be interpreted with caution in these patients.

Mycobacterium vaccae NCTC 11659, a Soil-Derived Bacterium with Stress Resilience Properties, Modulates the Proinflammatory Effects of LPS in Macrophages.

Inflammatory conditions, including allergic asthma and conditions in which chronic low-grade inflammation is a risk factor, such as stress-related psychiatric disorders, are prevalent and are a significant cause of disability worldwide. Novel approaches for the prevention and treatment of these disorders are needed. One approach is the use of immunoregulatory microorganisms, such as Mycobacterium vaccae NCTC 11659, which have anti-inflammatory, immunoregulatory, and stress-resilience properties. However, little is known about how M. vaccae NCTC 11659 affects specific immune cell targets, including monocytes, which can traffic to peripheral organs and the central nervous system and differentiate into monocyte-derived macrophages that, in turn, can drive inflammation and neuroinflammation. In this study, we investigated the effects of M. vaccae NCTC 11659 and subsequent lipopolysaccharide (LPS) challenge on gene expression in human monocyte-derived macrophages. THP-1 monocytes were differentiated into macrophages, exposed to M. vaccae NCTC 11659 (0, 10, 30, 100, 300 µg/mL), then, 24 h later, challenged with LPS (0, 0.5, 2.5, 250 ng/mL), and assessed for gene expression 24 h following challenge with LPS. Exposure to M. vaccae NCTC 11659 prior to challenge with higher concentrations of LPS (250 ng/mL) polarized human monocyte-derived macrophages with decreased IL12A, IL12B, and IL23A expression relative to IL10 and TGFB1 mRNA expression. These data identify human monocyte-derived macrophages as a direct target of M. vaccae NCTC 11659 and support the development of M. vaccae NCTC 11659 as a potential intervention to prevent stress-induced inflammation and neuroinflammation implicated in the etiology and pathophysiology of inflammatory conditions and stress-related psychiatric disorders.

Effects of Mycobacterium vaccae NCTC 11659 and Lipopolysaccharide Challenge on Polarization of Murine BV-2 Microglial Cells.

Previous studies have shown that the in vivo administration of soil-derived bacteria with anti-inflammatory and immunoregulatory properties, such as Mycobacterium vaccae NCTC 11659, can prevent a stress-induced shift toward an inflammatory M1 microglial immunophenotype and microglial priming in the central nervous system (CNS). It remains unclear whether M. vaccae NCTC 11659 can act directly on microglia to mediate these effects. This study was designed to determine the effects of M. vaccae NCTC 11659 on the polarization of naïve BV-2 cells, a murine microglial cell line, and BV-2 cells subsequently challenged with lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Briefly, murine BV-2 cells were exposed to 100 µg/mL whole-cell, heat-killed M. vaccae NCTC 11659 or sterile borate-buffered saline (BBS) vehicle, followed, 24 h later, by exposure to 0.250 µg/mL LPS (Escherichia coli 0111: B4; n = 3) in cell culture media vehicle (CMV) or a CMV control condition. Twenty-four hours after the LPS or CMV challenge, cells were harvested to isolate total RNA. An analysis using the NanoString platform revealed that, by itself, M. vaccae NCTC 11659 had an "adjuvant-like" effect, while exposure to LPS increased the expression of mRNAs encoding proinflammatory cytokines, chemokine ligands, the C3 component of complement, and components of inflammasome signaling such as Nlrp3. Among LPS-challenged cells, M. vaccae NCTC 11659 had limited effects on differential gene expression using a threshold of 1.5-fold change. A subset of genes was assessed using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (real-time RT-PCR), including Arg1, Ccl2, Il1b, Il6, Nlrp3, and Tnf. Based on the analysis using real-time RT-PCR, M. vaccae NCTC 11659 by itself again induced "adjuvant-like" effects, increasing the expression of Il1b, Il6, and Tnf while decreasing the expression of Arg1. LPS by itself increased the expression of Ccl2, Il1b, Il6, Nlrp3, and Tnf while decreasing the expression of Arg1. Among LPS-challenged cells, M. vaccae NCTC 11659 enhanced LPS-induced increases in the expression of Nlrp3 and Tnf, consistent with microglial priming. In contrast, among LPS-challenged cells, although M. vaccae NCTC 11659 did not fully prevent the effects of LPS relative to vehicle-treated control conditions, it increased Arg1 mRNA expression, suggesting that M. vaccae NCTC 11659 induces an atypical microglial phenotype. Thus, M. vaccae NCTC 11659 acutely (within 48 h) induced immune-activating and microglial-priming effects when applied directly to murine BV-2 microglial cells, in contrast to its long-term anti-inflammatory and immunoregulatory effects observed on the CNS when whole-cell, heat-killed preparations of M. vaccae NCTC 11659 were given peripherally in vivo.

Long-term trends in yield variance of temperate managed grassland.

The management of climate-resilient grassland systems is important for stable livestock fodder production. In the face of climate change, maintaining productivity while minimizing yield variance of grassland systems is increasingly challenging. To achieve climate-resilient and stable productivity of grasslands, a better understanding of the climatic drivers of long-term trends in yield variance and its dependence on agronomic inputs is required. Based on the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted (UK), we report for the first time the long-term trends in yield variance of grassland (1965-2018) in plots given different fertilizer and lime applications, with contrasting productivity and plant species diversity. We implemented a statistical model that allowed yield variance to be determined independently of yield level. Environmental abiotic covariates were included in a novel criss-cross regression approach to determine climatic drivers of yield variance and its dependence on agronomic management. Our findings highlight that sufficient liming and moderate fertilization can reduce yield variance while maintaining productivity and limiting loss of plant species diversity. Plots receiving the highest rate of nitrogen fertilizer or farmyard manure had the highest yield but were also more responsive to environmental variability and had less plant species diversity. We identified the days of water stress from March to October and temperature from July to August as the two main climatic drivers, explaining approximately one-third of the observed yield variance. These drivers helped explain consistent unimodal trends in yield variance-with a peak in approximately 1995, after which variance declined. Here, for the first time, we provide a novel statistical framework and a unique long-term dataset for understanding the trends in yield variance of managed grassland. The application of the criss-cross regression approach in other long-term agro-ecological trials could help identify climatic drivers of production risk and to derive agronomic strategies for improving the climate resilience of cropping systems. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-023-00885-w.

Defective Interferon-Gamma Production Is Common in Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis.

BACKGROUND: Immune defects in chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA) are poorly characterized. We compared peripheral blood cytokine profiles in patients with CPA versus healthy controls and explored the relationship with disease severity. METHODS: Interferon-gamma (IFNγ), interleukin (IL)-17, tumor necrosis factor-α, IL-6, IL-12, and IL-10 were measured after in vitro stimulation of whole blood with lipopolysaccharide (LPS), phytohemagglutinin, ß-glucan, zymosan (ZYM), IL-12 or IL-18, and combinations. Clinical parameters and mortality were correlated with cytokine production. RESULTS: Cytokine profiles were evaluated in 133 patients (57.1% male, mean age 61 years). In comparison to controls, patients with CPA had significantly reduced production of IFNγ in response to stimulation with ß-glucan + IL-12 (312 vs 988 pg/mL), LPS + IL-12 (252 vs 1033 pg/mL), ZYM + IL-12 (996 vs 2347 pg/mL), and IL-18 + IL-12 (7193 vs 12 330 pg/mL). Age >60 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-2.91; P = .05) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.03-2.78; P = .039) were associated with worse survival, whereas high IFNγ production in response to beta-glucan + IL-12 stimulation (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, .25-0.92; P = .026) was associated with reduced mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CPA show impaired IFNγ production in peripheral blood in response to stimuli. Defective IFNγ production ability correlates with worse outcomes. Immunotherapy with IFNγ could be beneficial for patients showing impaired IFNγ production in CPA.

Use of the Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System in Acute Liver Failure: Results of a Multicenter Propensity Score-Matched Study.

OBJECTIVES: The molecular adsorbent recirculating system removes water-soluble and albumin-bound toxins and may be beneficial for acute liver failure patients. We compared the rates of 21-day transplant-free survival in acute liver failure patients receiving molecular adsorbent recirculating system therapy and patients receiving standard medical therapy. DESIGN: Propensity score-matched retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Tertiary North American liver transplant centers. PATIENTS: Acute liver failure patients receiving molecular adsorbent recirculating system at three transplantation centers (n = 104; January 2009-2019) and controls from the U.S. Acute Liver Failure Study Group registry. INTERVENTIONS: Molecular adsorbent recirculating system treatment versus standard medical therapy (control). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: One-hundred four molecular adsorbent recirculating system patients were propensity score-matched (4:1) to 416 controls. Using multivariable conditional logistic regression adjusting for acute liver failure etiology (acetaminophen: n = 248; vs nonacetaminophen: n = 272), age, vasopressor support, international normalized ratio, King's College Criteria, and propensity score (main model), molecular adsorbent recirculating system was significantly associated with increased 21-day transplant-free survival (odds ratio, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.07-3.39; p = 0.030). This association remained significant in several sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for acute liver failure etiology and propensity score alone ("model 2"; molecular adsorbent recirculating system odds ratio, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.05-3.31; p = 0.033), and further adjustment of the "main model" for mechanical ventilation, and grade 3/4 hepatic encephalopathy ("model 3"; molecular adsorbent recirculating system odds ratio, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.07-3.41; p = 0.029). In acetaminophen-acute liver failure (n = 51), molecular adsorbent recirculating system was associated with significant improvements (post vs pre) in mean arterial pressure (92.0 vs 78.0 mm Hg), creatinine (77.0 vs 128.2 µmol/L), lactate (2.3 vs 4.3 mmol/L), and ammonia (98.0 vs 136.0 µmol/L; p ≤ 0.002 for all). In nonacetaminophen acute liver failure (n = 53), molecular adsorbent recirculating system was associated with significant improvements in bilirubin (205.2 vs 251.4 µmol/L), creatinine (83.1 vs 133.5 µmol/L), and ammonia (111.5 vs 140.0 µmol/L; p ≤ 0.022 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with molecular adsorbent recirculating system is associated with increased 21-day transplant-free survival in acute liver failure and improves biochemical variables and hemodynamics, particularly in acetaminophen-acute liver failure.

MicroRNA-18a targeting of the STK4/MST1 tumour suppressor is necessary for transformation in HPV positive cervical cancer.

Human papillomaviruses (HPV) are a major cause of malignancy worldwide. They are the aetiological agents of almost all cervical cancers as well as a sub-set of other anogenital and head and neck cancers. Hijacking of host cellular pathways is essential for virus pathogenesis; however, a major challenge remains to identify key host targets and to define their contribution to HPV-driven malignancy. The Hippo pathway regulates epithelial homeostasis by down-regulating the function of the transcription factor YAP. Increased YAP expression has been observed in cervical cancer but the mechanisms driving this increase remain unclear. We found significant down-regulation of the master Hippo regulatory kinase STK4 (also termed MST1) in cervical disease samples and cervical cancer cell lines compared with healthy controls. Re-introduction of STK4 inhibited the proliferation of HPV positive cervical cells and this corresponded with decreased YAP nuclear localization and decreased YAP-dependent gene expression. The HPV E6 and E7 oncoproteins maintained low STK4 expression in cervical cancer cells by upregulating the oncomiR miR-18a, which directly targeted the STK4 mRNA 3'UTR. Interestingly, miR-18a knockdown increased STK4 expression and activated the Hippo pathway, significantly reducing cervical cancer cell proliferation. Our results identify STK4 as a key cervical cancer tumour suppressor, which is targeted via miR-18a in HPV positive tumours. Our study indicates that activation of the Hippo pathway may offer a therapeutically beneficial option for cervical cancer treatment.

An artificial intelligence platform to optimize workflow during ovarian stimulation and IVF: process improvement and outcome-based predictions.

RESEARCH QUESTION: Can workflow during IVF be facilitated by artificial intelligence to limit monitoring during ovarian stimulation to a single day and enable level-loading of retrievals? DESIGN: The dataset consisted of 1591 autologous cycles in unique patients with complete data including age, FSH, oestradiol and anti-Müllerian concentrations, follicle counts and body mass index. Observations during ovarian stimulation included oestradiol concentrations and follicle diameters. An algorithm was designed to identify the single best day for monitoring and predict trigger day options and total number of oocytes retrieved. RESULTS: The mean error to predict the single best day for monitoring was 1.355 days. After identifying the single best day for evaluation, the algorithm identified the trigger date and range of three oocyte retrieval days specified by the earliest and the latest day on which the number of oocytes retrieved was minimally changed with a variance of 0-3 oocytes. Accuracy for prediction of total number of oocytes with baseline testing alone or in combination with data on the day of observation was 0.76 and 0.80, respectively. The sensitivities for estimating the total number and number of mature oocytes based solely on pre-IVF profiles in group I (0-10) were 0.76 and 0.78, and in group II (>10) 0.76 and 0.81, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A first-iteration algorithm is described designed to improve workflow, minimize visits and level-load embryology work. This algorithm enables decisions at three interrelated nodal points for IVF workflow management to include monitoring on the single best day, assign trigger days to enable a range of 3 days for level-loading and estimate oocyte number.

Amazon deforestation drives malaria transmission, and malaria burden reduces forest clearing.

Deforestation and land use change are among the most pressing anthropogenic environmental impacts. In Brazil, a resurgence of malaria in recent decades paralleled rapid deforestation and settlement in the Amazon basin, yet evidence of a deforestation-driven increase in malaria remains equivocal. We hypothesize an underlying cause of this ambiguity is that deforestation and malaria influence each other in bidirectional causal relationships-deforestation increases malaria through ecological mechanisms and malaria reduces deforestation through socioeconomic mechanisms-and that the strength of these relationships depends on the stage of land use transformation. We test these hypotheses with a large geospatial dataset encompassing 795 municipalities across 13 y (2003 to 2015) and show deforestation has a strong positive effect on malaria incidence. Our results suggest a 10% increase in deforestation leads to a 3.3% increase in malaria incidence (∼9,980 additional cases associated with 1,567 additional km2 lost in 2008, the study midpoint, Amazon-wide). The effect is larger in the interior and absent in outer Amazonian states where little forest remains. However, this strong effect is only detectable after controlling for a feedback of malaria burden on forest loss, whereby increased malaria burden significantly reduces forest clearing, possibly mediated by human behavior or economic development. We estimate a 1% increase in malaria incidence results in a 1.4% decrease in forest area cleared (∼219 fewer km2 cleared associated with 3,024 additional cases in 2008). This bidirectional socioecological feedback between deforestation and malaria, which attenuates as land use intensifies, illustrates the intimate ties between environmental change and human health.

Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics.

Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way.

The influence of vector-borne disease on human history: socio-ecological mechanisms.

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are embedded within complex socio-ecological systems. While research has traditionally focused on the direct effects of VBDs on human morbidity and mortality, it is increasingly clear that their impacts are much more pervasive. VBDs are dynamically linked to feedbacks between environmental conditions, vector ecology, disease burden, and societal responses that drive transmission. As a result, VBDs have had profound influence on human history. Mechanisms include: (1) killing or debilitating large numbers of people, with demographic and population-level impacts; (2) differentially affecting populations based on prior history of disease exposure, immunity, and resistance; (3) being weaponised to promote or justify hierarchies of power, colonialism, racism, classism and sexism; (4) catalysing changes in ideas, institutions, infrastructure, technologies and social practices in efforts to control disease outbreaks; and (5) changing human relationships with the land and environment. We use historical and archaeological evidence interpreted through an ecological lens to illustrate how VBDs have shaped society and culture, focusing on case studies from four pertinent VBDs: plague, malaria, yellow fever and trypanosomiasis. By comparing across diseases, time periods and geographies, we highlight the enormous scope and variety of mechanisms by which VBDs have influenced human history.