Relationship between microbiology of throat swab and clinical course among primary care patients with acute cough: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTIs) account for most antibiotics prescribed in primary care despite lack of efficacy, partly due to clinician uncertainty about aetiology and patient concerns about illness course. Nucleic acid amplification tests could assist antibiotic targeting. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 645 patients presenting to primary care with acute cough and suspected ALRTI, provided throat swabs at baseline. These were tested for respiratory pathogens by real-time polymerase chain reaction and classified as having a respiratory virus, bacteria, both or neither. Three hundred fifty-four participants scored the symptoms severity daily for 1 week in a diary (0 = absent to 4 = severe problem). RESULTS: Organisms were identified in 346/645 (53.6%) participants. There were differences in the prevalence of seven symptoms between the organism groups at baseline. Those with a virus alone, and those with both virus and bacteria, had higher average severity scores of all symptoms combined during the week of follow-up than those in whom no organisms were detected [adjusted mean differences 0.204 (95% confidence interval 0.010 to 0.398) and 0.348 (0.098 to 0.598), respectively]. There were no differences in the duration of symptoms rated as moderate or severe between organism groups. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in presenting symptoms and symptoms severity can be identified between patients with viruses and bacteria identified on throat swabs. The magnitude of these differences is unlikely to influence management. Most patients had mild symptoms at 7 days regardless of aetiology, which could inform patients about likely symptom duration.

Predictors of pneumonia in lower respiratory tract infections: 3C prospective cough complication cohort study.

The aim was to aid diagnosis of pneumonia in those presenting with lower respiratory tract symptoms in routine primary care.A cohort of 28 883 adult patients with acute cough attributed to lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) was recruited from 5222 UK practices in 2009-13. Symptoms, signs and treatment were recorded at presentation and subsequent events followed-up for 30 days by chart review. The predictive value of patient characteristics, presenting symptoms and clinical findings for the diagnosis of pneumonia in the first 7 days was established.Of the 720 out of 28 883 (2.5.%) radiographed within 1 week of the index consultation, 115 (16.0%; 0.40% of 28 883) were assigned a definite or probable pneumonia diagnosis. The significant independent predictors of radiograph-confirmed pneumonia were temperature >37.8°C (RR 2.6; 95% CI 1.5-4.8), crackles on auscultation (RR 1.8; 1.1-3.0), oxygen saturation <95% (RR 1.7; 1.0-3.1) and pulse >100·min-1 (RR 1.9; 1.1-3.2). Most patients with pneumonia (99/115, 86.1%) exhibited at least one of these four clinical signs; the positive predictive value of having at least one of these signs was 20.2% (95% CI 17.3-23.1).In routine practice, radiograph-confirmed pneumonia as a short-term complication of LRTI is very uncommon (one in 270). Pulse oximetry may aid the diagnosis of pneumonia in this setting.

Large-scale community echocardiographic screening reveals a major burden of undiagnosed valvular heart disease in older people: the OxVALVE Population Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Valvular heart disease (VHD) is expected to become more common as the population ages. However, current estimates of its natural history and prevalence are based on historical studies with potential sources of bias. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of VHD identified at recruitment of a large cohort of older people. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled 2500 individuals aged ≥65 years from a primary care population and screened for undiagnosed VHD using transthoracic echocardiography. Newly identified (predominantly mild) VHD was detected in 51% of participants. The most common abnormalities were aortic sclerosis (34%), mitral regurgitation (22%), and aortic regurgitation (15%). Aortic stenosis was present in 1.3%. The likelihood of undiagnosed VHD was two-fold higher in the two most deprived socioeconomic quintiles than in the most affluent quintile, and three-fold higher in individuals with atrial fibrillation. Clinically significant (moderate or severe) undiagnosed VHD was identified in 6.4%. In addition, 4.9% of the cohort had pre-existing VHD (a total prevalence of 11.3%). Projecting these findings using population data, we estimate that the prevalence of clinically significant VHD will double before 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Previously undetected VHD affects 1 in 2 of the elderly population and is more common in lower socioeconomic classes. These unique data demonstrate the contemporary clinical and epidemiological characteristics of VHD in a large population-based cohort of older people and confirm the scale of the emerging epidemic of VHD, with widespread implications for clinicians and healthcare resources.

Site and Stage of Colorectal Cancer Influence the Likelihood and Distribution of Disease Recurrence and Postrecurrence Survival: Data From the FACS Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVES: To describe patterns of recurrence and postrecurrence survival in a large cohort of accurately staged patients with Dukes' A-C colorectal cancer. BACKGROUND: Recurrence remains a frequent cause of mortality after the treatment of colorectal cancer with curative intent. Understanding the likelihood and site of recurrence informs adjuvant treatment and follow-up. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis of data from the FACS (follow-up after colorectal cancer surgery) trial after a median 4.4 years of follow-up; postrecurrence survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 94% of patients; 189 (17%) patients had experienced recurrence. Incidence of recurrence varied according to the site of the primary (right colon: 51/379, 14%; left colon: 68/421, 16%; rectum: 70/332, 21%; P = 0.023) and initial stage (Dukes' A: 26/249, 10%; Dukes' B: 81/537, 15%; Dukes' C: 82/346, 24%; P < 0.0001). Pulmonary recurrence was most frequently associated with rectal tumors, and multisite/other recurrence with right-sided colonic tumors. Recurrences from lower-stage tumors were more likely to be treatable with curative intent (Dukes' A: 13/26, 50%; Dukes' B: 32/81, 40%; Dukes' C: 20/82, 24%; P = 0.03). Those with rectal tumors benefited most from follow-up (proportion with treatable recurrence: rectum 30/332, 9%; left colon 23/421, 6%; right colon 12/379, 3%; P = 0.003). Both initial stage (log rank P = 0.005) and site of primary (log rank P = 0.01) influenced postrecurrence survival. CONCLUSIONS: The likelihood and site of recurrence, and survival, are influenced by the site and stage of the primary tumor. Those with rectal cancers benefited most from follow-up.ISRCTN 41458548.

Should all acutely ill children in primary care be tested with point-of-care CRP: a cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Point-of-care blood C-reactive protein (CRP) testing has diagnostic value in helping clinicians rule out the possibility of serious infection. We investigated whether it should be offered to all acutely ill children in primary care or restricted to those identified as at risk on clinical assessment. METHODS: Cluster randomised controlled trial involving acutely ill children presenting to 133 general practitioners (GPs) at 78 GP practices in Belgium. Practices were randomised to undertake point-of-care CRP testing in all children (1730 episodes) or restricted to children identified as at clinical risk (1417 episodes). Clinical risk was assessed by a validated clinical decision rule (presence of one of breathlessness, temperature ≥ 40 °C, diarrhoea and age 12-30 months, or clinician concern). The main trial outcome was hospital admission with serious infection within 5 days. No specific guidance was given to GPs on interpreting CRP levels but diagnostic performance is reported at 5, 20, 80 and 200 mg/L. RESULTS: Restricting CRP testing to those identified as at clinical risk substantially reduced the number of children tested by 79.9 % (95 % CI, 77.8-82.0 %). There was no significant difference between arms in the number of children with serious infection who were referred to hospital immediately (0.16 % vs. 0.14 %, P = 0.88). Only one child with a CRP < 5 mg/L had an illness requiring admission (a child with viral gastroenteritis admitted for rehydration). However, of the 80 children referred to hospital to rule out serious infection, 24 (30.7 %, 95 % CI, 19.6-45.6 %) had a CRP < 5 mg/L. CONCLUSIONS: CRP testing should be restricted to children at higher risk after clinical assessment. A CRP < 5 mg/L rules out serious infection and could be used by GPs to avoid unnecessary hospital referrals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02024282 (registered on 14th September 2012).

Blood Measurement of Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level for Detecting Recurrence of Colorectal Cancer.

CLINICAL QUESTION: What is the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity at specific carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) thresholds for detecting recurrent colorectal cancer? BOTTOM LINE: To detect colorectal cancer recurrence, the sensitivity of CEA ranges from 68% for a threshold of 10 µg/L to 82% for a threshold of 2.5 µg/L and the specificity ranges from 97% for a threshold of 10 µg/L to 80% for a threshold of 2.5 µg/L.

Effect of nasal balloon autoinflation in children with otitis media with effusion in primary care: an open randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Otitis media with effusion is a common problem that lacks an evidence-based nonsurgical treatment option. We assessed the clinical effectiveness of treatment with a nasal balloon device in a primary care setting. METHODS: We conducted an open, pragmatic randomized controlled trial set in 43 family practices in the United Kingdom. Children aged 4-11 years with a recent history of ear symptoms and otitis media with effusion in 1 or both ears, confirmed by tympanometry, were allocated to receive either autoinflation 3 times daily for 1-3 months plus usual care or usual care alone. Clearance of middle-ear fluid at 1 and 3 months was assessed by experts masked to allocation. RESULTS: Of 320 children enrolled, those receiving autoinflation were more likely than controls to have normal tympanograms at 1 month (47.3% [62/131] v. 35.6% [47/132]; adjusted relative risk [RR] 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99 to 1.88) and at 3 months (49.6% [62/125] v. 38.3% [46/120]; adjusted RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.83; number needed to treat = 9). Autoinflation produced greater improvements in ear-related quality of life (adjusted between-group difference in change from baseline in OMQ-14 [an ear-related measure of quality of life] score -0.42, 95% CI -0.63 to -0.22). Compliance was 89% at 1 month and 80% at 3 months. Adverse events were mild, infrequent and comparable between groups. INTERPRETATION: Autoinflation in children aged 4-11 years with otitis media with effusion is feasible in primary care and effective both in clearing effusions and improving symptoms and ear-related child and parent quality of life. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, No. 55208702.

Blood CEA levels for detecting recurrent colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Testing for carcino-embryonic antigen (CEA) in the blood is a recommended part of follow-up to detect recurrence of colorectal cancer following primary curative treatment. There is substantial clinical variation in the cut-off level applied to trigger further investigation. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic performance of different blood CEA levels in identifying people with colorectal cancer recurrence in order to inform clinical practice. SEARCH METHODS: We conducted all searches to January 29 2014. We applied no language limits to the searches, and translated non-English manuscripts. We searched for relevant reviews in the MEDLINE, EMBASE, MEDION and DARE databases. We searched for primary studies (including conference abstracts) in the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Science Citation Index & Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science. We identified ongoing studies by searching WHO ICTRP and the ASCO meeting library. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included cross-sectional diagnostic test accuracy studies, cohort studies, and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of post-resection colorectal cancer follow-up that compared CEA to a reference standard. We included studies only if we could extract 2 x 2 accuracy data. We excluded case-control studies, as the ratio of cases to controls is determined by the study design, making the data unsuitable for assessing test accuracy. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors (BDN, IP) assessed the quality of all articles independently, discussing any disagreements. Where we could not reach consensus, a third author (BS) acted as moderator. We assessed methodological quality against QUADAS-2 criteria. We extracted binary diagnostic accuracy data from all included studies as 2 x 2 tables. We conducted a bivariate meta-analysis. We used the xtmelogit command in Stata to produce the pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity and we also produced hierarchical summary ROC plots. MAIN RESULTS: In the 52 included studies, sensitivity ranged from 41% to 97% and specificity from 52% to 100%. In the seven studies reporting the impact of applying a threshold of 2.5 µg/L, pooled sensitivity was 82% (95% confidence interval (CI) 78% to 86%) and pooled specificity 80% (95% CI 59% to 92%). In the 23 studies reporting the impact of applying a threshold of 5 µg/L, pooled sensitivity was 71% (95% CI 64% to 76%) and pooled specificity 88% (95% CI 84% to 92%). In the seven studies reporting the impact of applying a threshold of 10 µg/L, pooled sensitivity was 68% (95% CI 53% to 79%) and pooled specificity 97% (95% CI 90% to 99%). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: CEA is insufficiently sensitive to be used alone, even with a low threshold. It is therefore essential to augment CEA monitoring with another diagnostic modality in order to avoid missed cases. Trying to improve sensitivity by adopting a low threshold is a poor strategy because of the high numbers of false alarms generated. We therefore recommend monitoring for colorectal cancer recurrence with more than one diagnostic modality but applying the highest CEA cut-off assessed (10 µg/L).

Human resources for primary health care in sub-Saharan Africa: progress or stagnation?

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization defines a "critical shortage" of health workers as being fewer than 2.28 health workers per 1000 population and failing to attain 80% coverage for deliveries by skilled birth attendants. We aimed to quantify the number of health workers in five African countries and the proportion of these currently working in primary health care facilities, to compare this to estimates of numbers needed and to assess how the situation has changed in recent years. METHODS: This study is a review of published and unpublished "grey" literature on human resources for health in five disparate countries: Mali, Sudan, Uganda, Botswana and South Africa. RESULTS: Health worker density has increased steadily since 2000 in South Africa and Botswana which already meet WHO targets but has not significantly increased since 2004 in Sudan, Mali and Uganda which have a critical shortage of health workers. In all five countries, a minority of doctors, nurses and midwives are working in primary health care, and shortages of qualified staff are greatest in rural areas. In Uganda, shortages are greater in primary health care settings than at higher levels. In Mali, few community health centres have a midwife or a doctor. Even South Africa has a shortage of doctors in primary health care in poorer districts. Although most countries recognize village health workers, traditional healers and traditional birth attendants, there are insufficient data on their numbers. CONCLUSION: There is an "inverse primary health care law" in the countries studied: staffing is inversely related to poverty and level of need, and health worker density is not increasing in the lowest income countries. Unless there is money to recruit and retain staff in these areas, training programmes will not improve health worker density because the trained staff will simply leave to work elsewhere. Information systems need to be improved in a way that informs policy on the health workforce. It may be possible to use existing resources more cost-effectively by involving skilled staff to supervise and support lower level health care workers who currently provide the front line of primary health care in most of Africa.

Effect of 3 to 5 years of scheduled CEA and CT follow-up to detect recurrence of colorectal cancer: the FACS randomized clinical trial.

IMPORTANCE: Intensive follow-up after surgery for colorectal cancer is common practice but is based on limited evidence. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of scheduled blood measurement of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and computed tomography (CT) as follow-up to detect recurrent colorectal cancer treatable with curative intent. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized clinical trial in 39 National Health Service hospitals in the United Kingdom; 1202 eligible participants were recruited between January 2003 and August 2009 who had undergone curative surgery for primary colorectal cancer, including adjuvant treatment if indicated, with no evidence of residual disease on investigation. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 4 groups: CEA only (n = 300), CT only (n = 299), CEA+CT (n = 302), or minimum follow-up (n = 301). Blood CEA was measured every 3 months for 2 years, then every 6 months for 3 years; CT scans of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis were performed every 6 months for 2 years, then annually for 3 years; and the minimum follow-up group received follow-up if symptoms occurred. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was surgical treatment of recurrence with curative intent; secondary outcomes were mortality (total and colorectal cancer), time to detection of recurrence, and survival after treatment of recurrence with curative intent. RESULTS: After a mean 4.4 (SD, 0.8) years of observation, cancer recurrence was detected in 199 participants (16.6%; 95% CI, 14.5%-18.7%) overall; 71 of 1202 participants (5.9%; 95% CI, 4.6%-7.2%) were treated for recurrence with curative intent, with little difference according to Dukes staging (stage A, 5.1% [13/254]; stage B, 6.1% [34/553]; stage C, 6.2% [22/354]). Surgical treatment of recurrence with curative intent was 2.3% (7/301) in the minimum follow-up group, 6.7% (20/300) in the CEA group, 8% (24/299) in the CT group, and 6.6% (20/302) in the CEA+CT group. Compared with minimum follow-up, the absolute difference in the percentage of patients treated with curative intent in the CEA group was 4.4% (95% CI, 1.0%-7.9%; adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.00; 95% CI, 1.23-7.33), in the CT group was 5.7% (95% CI, 2.2%-9.5%; adjusted OR, 3.63; 95% CI, 1.51-8.69), and in the CEA+CT group was 4.3% (95% CI, 1.0%-7.9%; adjusted OR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.10-8.71). The number of deaths was not significantly different in the combined intensive monitoring groups (CEA, CT, and CEA+CT; 18.2% [164/901]) vs the minimum follow-up group (15.9% [48/301]; difference, 2.3%; 95% CI, -2.6% to 7.1%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients who had undergone curative surgery for primary colorectal cancer, intensive imaging or CEA screening each provided an increased rate of surgical treatment of recurrence with curative intent compared with minimal follow-up; there was no advantage in combining CEA and CT. If there is a survival advantage to any strategy, it is likely to be small. TRIAL REGISTRATION: isrctn.org Identifier: 41458548.

How well do clinical prediction rules perform in identifying serious infections in acutely ill children across an international network of ambulatory care datasets?

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing serious infections in children is challenging, because of the low incidence of such infections and their non-specific presentation early in the course of illness. Prediction rules are promoted as a means to improve recognition of serious infections. A recent systematic review identified seven clinical prediction rules, of which only one had been prospectively validated, calling into question their appropriateness for clinical practice. We aimed to examine the diagnostic accuracy of these rules in multiple ambulatory care populations in Europe. METHODS: Four clinical prediction rules and two national guidelines, based on signs and symptoms, were validated retrospectively in seven individual patient datasets from primary care and emergency departments, comprising 11,023 children from the UK, the Netherlands, and Belgium. The accuracy of each rule was tested, with pre-test and post-test probabilities displayed using dumbbell plots, with serious infection settings stratified as low prevalence (LP; <5%), intermediate prevalence (IP; 5 to 20%), and high prevalence (HP; >20%) . In LP and IP settings, sensitivity should be >90% for effective ruling out infection. RESULTS: In LP settings, a five-stage decision tree and a pneumonia rule had sensitivities of >90% (at a negative likelihood ratio (NLR) of < 0.2) for ruling out serious infections, whereas the sensitivities of a meningitis rule and the Yale Observation Scale (YOS) varied widely, between 33 and 100%. In IP settings, the five-stage decision tree, the pneumonia rule, and YOS had sensitivities between 22 and 88%, with NLR ranging from 0.3 to 0.8. In an HP setting, the five-stage decision tree provided a sensitivity of 23%. In LP or IP settings, the sensitivities of the National Institute for Clinical Excellence guideline for feverish illness and the Dutch College of General Practitioners alarm symptoms ranged from 81 to 100%. CONCLUSIONS: None of the clinical prediction rules examined in this study provided perfect diagnostic accuracy. In LP or IP settings, prediction rules and evidence-based guidelines had high sensitivity, providing promising rule-out value for serious infections in these datasets, although all had a percentage of residual uncertainty. Additional clinical assessment or testing such as point-of-care laboratory tests may be needed to increase clinical certainty. None of the prediction rules identified seemed to be valuable for HP settings such as emergency departments.

Pneumococcal conjugate and plain polysaccharide vaccines have divergent effects on antigen-specific B cells.

BACKGROUND: A 23-valent unconjugated pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (23vP), routinely administered at the age of 65, has limited effectiveness, and revaccination induces attenuated antibody responses. It is not known whether pneumococcal polysaccharide-protein conjugated vaccines (PCV), although highly effective in infants, offer any immunological advantages over 23vP in adults. METHODS: We immunized adults with schedules combining both PCV and 23vP and investigated B-cell responses to establish whether PCV7 (a 7-valent PCV) induced T-dependent responses in adults, to assess the role of memory B cells in 23vP-induced antibody hyporesponsiveness, and to identify the B-cell subtypes involved. RESULTS: A single dose of PCV7 induced significant increases in serotype-specific memory B-cell populations in peripheral blood indicating a T-dependent response. Conversely, immunization with 23vP resulted in a decrease in memory B-cell frequency. Furthermore, memory B-cell responses to subsequent immunization with PCV7, when given after 23vP, were attenuated. Notably, B1b cells, a subset important in protecting mice against pneumococci, were also depleted following immunization with 23vP in humans. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that PCV7 may have an immunological advantage over 23vP in adults and that 23vP-induced depletion of memory and B1b-cell subsets may provide a basis for antibody hyporesponsiveness and the limited effectiveness of 23vP. Clinical Trials Registration. ISRCTN: 78768849.

Normal ranges of heart rate and respiratory rate in children from birth to 18 years of age: a systematic review of observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Although heart rate and respiratory rate in children are measured routinely in acute settings, current reference ranges are not based on evidence. We aimed to derive new centile charts for these vital signs and to compare these centiles with existing international ranges. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists for studies that reported heart rate or respiratory rate of healthy children between birth and 18 years of age. We used non-parametric kernel regression to create centile charts for heart rate and respiratory rate in relation to age. We compared existing reference ranges with those derived from our centile charts. FINDINGS: We identified 69 studies with heart rate data for 143,346 children and respiratory rate data for 3881 children. Our centile charts show decline in respiratory rate from birth to early adolescence, with the steepest fall apparent in infants under 2 years of age; decreasing from a median of 44 breaths per min at birth to 26 breaths per min at 2 years. Heart rate shows a small peak at age 1 month. Median heart rate increases from 127 beats per min at birth to a maximum of 145 beats per min at about 1 month, before decreasing to 113 beats per min by 2 years of age. Comparison of our centile charts with existing published reference ranges for heart rate and respiratory rate show striking disagreement, with limits from published ranges frequently exceeding the 99th and 1st centiles, or crossing the median. INTERPRETATION: Our evidence-based centile charts for children from birth to 18 years should help clinicians to update clinical and resuscitation guidelines. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Clinical symptoms and signs for the diagnosis of Mycoplasma pneumoniae in children and adolescents with community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) is a significant cause of community-acquired pneumonia in children and adolescents. Treatment with macrolide antibiotics is recommended. However, M. pneumoniae is difficult to diagnose based on clinical symptoms and signs. Diagnostic uncertainty can lead to inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, which may worsen clinical prognosis and increase antibiotic resistance. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this review are (i) to assess the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs in the clinical recognition of M. pneumoniae in children and adolescents with community-acquired pneumonia; and (ii) to assess the influence of potential sources of heterogeneity on the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs in the clinical recognition of M. pneumoniae. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE (January 1950 to 26 June 2012) and EMBASE (January 1980 to 26 June 2012). We identified additional references by handsearching the reference lists of included articles and snowballing. We searched the reference lists of relevant systematic reviews identified by searching the Medion database, Database of Reviews of Effects 2012, Issue 6 (25 June 2012) and the Cochrane Register of Diagnostic Test Accuracy studies (2 July 2012). Experts in the field reviewed our list of included studies for any obvious omissions. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included peer-reviewed published studies which prospectively and consecutively recruited children with community-acquired pneumonia from any healthcare setting, confirmed the presence of M. pneumoniae using serology with or without other laboratory methods and reported data on clinical symptoms and signs in sufficient detail to construct 2 x 2 tables. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: One review author scanned titles to exclude obviously irrelevant articles. Two review authors independently scanned the remaining titles and abstracts, reviewed full-text versions of potentially relevant articles, assessed the quality of included articles and extracted data on study characteristics and the following clinical features: cough, wheeze, coryza, crepitations, fever, rhonchi, shortness of breath, chest pain, diarrhea, myalgia and headache.We calculated study-specific values for sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative likelihood ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We estimated the post-test probability of M. pneumoniae based on the absence or presence of symptoms and signs.We calculated pooled sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios with 95% CIs for symptoms and signs where data were reported by at least four included studies by fitting a bivariate normal model for the logit transforms of sensitivity and specificity. We explored potential sources of heterogeneity by fitting bivariate models with covariates using multi-level mixed-effects logistic regression. We performed sensitivity analyses excluding data from studies for which we were concerned about the representativeness of the study population and/or the acceptability of the reference standard. MAIN RESULTS: Our search identified 8299 articles (excluding duplicates). We examined the titles and abstracts of 1125 articles and the full-text versions of 97 articles. We included seven studies in our review, which reported data from 1491 children; all were conducted in hospital settings. Overall, study quality was moderate. In two studies the presence of chest pain more than doubled the probability of M. pneumoniae. Wheeze was 12% more likely to be absent in children with M. pneumoniae (pooled positive likelihood ratio (LR+) 0.76, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.97; pooled negative likelihood ratio (LR-) 1.12, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.23). Our sensitivity analysis showed that the presence of crepitations was associated with M. pneumoniae, but this finding was of borderline statistical significance (pooled LR+ 1.10, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.23; pooled LR- 0.66, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.96). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: M. pneumoniae cannot be reliably diagnosed in children and adolescents with community-acquired pneumonia based on clinical symptoms and signs. Although the absence of wheeze is a statistically significant diagnostic indicator, it does not have sufficient diagnostic value to guide empirical macrolide treatment. Data from two studies suggest that the presence of chest pain more than doubles the probability of M. pneumoniae. However, further research is needed to substantiate this finding. More high quality large-scale studies in primary care settings are needed to help develop prediction rules based on epidemiological data as well as clinical and baseline patient characteristics.

Nicotine replacement therapy for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: The aim of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) is to temporarily replace much of the nicotine from cigarettes to reduce motivation to smoke and nicotine withdrawal symptoms, thus easing the transition from cigarette smoking to complete abstinence. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this review were: To determine the effect of NRT compared to placebo in aiding smoking cessation, and to consider whether there is a difference in effect for the different forms of NRT (chewing gum, transdermal patches, oral and nasal sprays, inhalers and tablets/lozenges) in achieving abstinence from cigarettes. To determine whether the effect is influenced by the dosage, form and timing of use of NRT; the intensity of additional advice and support offered to the smoker; or the clinical setting in which the smoker is recruited and treated. To determine whether combinations of NRT are more likely to lead to successful quitting than one type alone. To determine whether NRT is more or less likely to lead to successful quitting compared to other pharmacotherapies. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group trials register for papers mentioning 'NRT' or any type of nicotine replacement therapy in the title, abstract or keywords. Date of most recent search July 2012. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized trials in which NRT was compared to placebo or to no treatment, or where different doses of NRT were compared. We excluded trials which did not report cessation rates, and those with follow-up of less than six months. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted data in duplicate on the type of participants, the dose, duration and form of nicotine therapy, the outcome measures, method of randomization, and completeness of follow-up. The main outcome measure was abstinence from smoking after at least six months of follow-up. We used the most rigorous definition of abstinence for each trial, and biochemically validated rates if available. We calculated the risk ratio (RR) for each study. Where appropriate, we performed meta-analysis using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effect model. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 150 trials; 117 with over 50,000 participants contributed to the primary comparison between any type of NRT and a placebo or non-NRT control group. The risk ratio (RR) of abstinence for any form of NRT relative to control was 1.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.53 to 1.68). The pooled RRs for each type were 1.49 (95% CI 1.40 to 1.60, 55 trials) for nicotine gum; 1.64 (95% CI 1.52 to 1.78, 43 trials) for nicotine patch; 1.95 (95% CI 1.61 to 2.36, 6 trials) for oral tablets/lozenges; 1.90 (95% CI 1.36 to 2.67, 4 trials) for nicotine inhaler; and 2.02 (95% CI 1.49 to 2.73, 4 trials) for nicotine nasal spray. One trial of oral spray had an RR of 2.48 (95% CI 1.24 to 4.94). The effects were largely independent of the duration of therapy, the intensity of additional support provided or the setting in which the NRT was offered. The effect was similar in a small group of studies that aimed to assess use of NRT obtained without a prescription. In highly dependent smokers there was a significant benefit of 4 mg gum compared with 2 mg gum, but weaker evidence of a benefit from higher doses of patch. There was evidence that combining a nicotine patch with a rapid delivery form of NRT was more effective than a single type of NRT (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.51, 9 trials). The RR for NRT used for a short period prior to the quit date was 1.18 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.40, 8 trials), just missing statistical significance, though the efficacy increased when we pooled only patch trials and when we removed one trial in which confounding was likely. Five studies directly compared NRT to a non-nicotine pharmacotherapy, bupropion; there was no evidence of a difference in efficacy (RR 1.01; 95% CI 0.87 to 1.18). A combination of NRT and bupropion was more effective than bupropion alone (RR 1.24; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.45, 4 trials). Adverse effects from using NRT are related to the type of product, and include skin irritation from patches and irritation to the inside of the mouth from gum and tablets. There is no evidence that NRT increases the risk of heart attacks. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: All of the commercially available forms of NRT (gum, transdermal patch, nasal spray, inhaler and sublingual tablets/lozenges) can help people who make a quit attempt to increase their chances of successfully stopping smoking. NRTs increase the rate of quitting by 50 to 70%, regardless of setting. The effectiveness of NRT appears to be largely independent of the intensity of additional support provided to the individual. Provision of more intense levels of support, although beneficial in facilitating the likelihood of quitting, is not essential to the success of NRT.

Effect of UK policy on medical migration: a time series analysis of physician registration data.

BACKGROUND: Economically developed countries have recruited large numbers of overseas health workers to fill domestic shortages. Recognition of the negative impact this can have on health care in developing countries led the United Kingdom Department of Health to issue a Code of Practice for National Health Service (NHS) employers in 1999 providing ethical guidance on international recruitment. Case reports suggest this guidance had limited influence in the context of other NHS policy priorities. METHODS: The temporal association between trends in new professional registrations from doctors qualifying overseas and relevant United Kingdom government policy is reported. Government policy documents were identified by a literature review; further information was obtained, when appropriate, through requests made under the Freedom of Information Act. Data on new professional registration of doctors were obtained from the General Medical Council (GMC). RESULTS: New United Kingdom professional registrations by doctors trained in Africa and south Asia more than doubled from 3105 in 2001 to 7343 in 2003, as NHS Trusts sought to achieve recruitment targets specified in the 2000 NHS Plan; this occurred despite ethical guidance to avoid active recruitment of doctors from resource-poor countries. Registration of such doctors declined subsequently, but in response to other government policy initiatives. A fall in registration of South African-trained doctors from 3206 in 2003 to 4 in 2004 followed a Memorandum of Understanding with South Africa signed in 2003. Registrations from India and Pakistan fell from a peak of 4626 in 2004 to 1169 in 2007 following changes in United Kingdom immigration law in 2005 and 2006. Since 2007, registration of new doctors trained outside the European Economic Area has remained relatively stable, but in 2010 the United Kingdom still registered 722 new doctors trained in Africa and 1207 trained in India and Pakistan. CONCLUSIONS: Ethical guidance was ineffective in preventing mass registration by doctors trained in resource-poor countries between 2001 and 2004 because of competing NHS policy priorities. Changes in United Kingdom immigration laws and bilateral agreements have subsequently reduced new registrations, but about 4000 new doctors a year continue to register who trained in Africa, Asia and less economically developed European countries.

General practitioners' views on quality markers for children in UK primary care: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Children make up about 20% of the UK population and caring for them is an important part of a general practitioner's (GP's) workload. However, the UK Quality Outcomes Framework (pay-for-performance system) largely ignores children - less than 3% of the quality markers relate to them. As no previous research has investigated whether GPs would support or oppose the introduction of child-specific quality markers, we sought their views on this important question. METHODS: Qualitative interview study with 20 GPs from four primary care trusts in Thames Valley, England. Semi-structured interviews explored GPs' viewpoints on quality markers and childhood conditions that could be developed into markers in general practice. Interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. Analysis was thematic and used constant comparative method to look for anticipated and emergent themes as the analysis progressed. RESULTS: All the GPs interviewed supported the development of 'benchmarks' or 'standards' to measure and improve quality of care for children. However no consensus was expressed about the clinical conditions for which quality markers should be developed. Many participants reflected on their concerns about unmet health care needs and felt there may be opportunities to improve proactive care in 'at risk' groups. Some expressed feelings of powerlessness that important child-relevant outcomes such as emergency department visits and emergency admissions were out of their control and more directly related to public health, school and parents/carers. The importance of access was a recurrent theme; access to urgent general practice appointments for children and GP access to specialists when needed. CONCLUSION: The GPs expressed support for the development of quality markers for the care of children in UK general practice. However, they flagged up a number of important challenges which need to be addressed if markers are to be developed that are measureable, targeted and within the direct control of primary care. Easy access to primary and secondary care appointments may be an important benchmark for commissioners of care.

A randomized study comparing combined pneumococcal conjugate and polysaccharide vaccination schedules in adults.

BACKGROUND: The widely used 23-valent plain polysaccharide vaccine (23vP) has limited effectiveness, produces short-lived immune responses, and induces attenuated antibody production after subsequent challenge with pneumococcal vaccines. Our goal was to examine whether priming with the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) could enhance the immunogenicity of 23vP for the PCV7 serotypes and to investigate whether 23vP induced hyporesponsiveness could be overcome using PCV7. METHODS: We conducted an open-label randomized study that compared 3 vaccine schedules, each of which consisted of 2 doses of PCV7 and 1 dose of 23vP (23vP-PCV7-PCV7, PCV7-23vP-PCV7, PCV7-PCV7-23vP) administered over a 1-year period in a cohort of 348 adults 50-70 years of age. All vaccines were administered intramuscularly and were given 6 months apart. Blood samples were obtained prior to and 1 month after each vaccination. RESULTS: 23vP administered after priming with 2 doses of PCV7 produced significantly higher antibody concentrations for 3 of the 7 PCV7 serotypes, compared with vaccination with a single dose of 23vP; however, the same immunogenicity could be achieved with a single dose of PCV7. Prior vaccination with 23vP attenuated the antibody response to subsequent PCV7, which was not restored by additional doses of PCV7. CONCLUSION: In adults, vaccination schedules combining PCV7 and 23vP do not provide improved immunogenicity over the use of a single dose of 23vP for most of the serotypes contained in PCV7.

Diagnostic value of clinical features at presentation to identify serious infection in children in developed countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to identify which clinical features have value in confirming or excluding the possibility of serious infection in children presenting to ambulatory care settings in developed countries. METHODS: In this systematic review, we searched electronic databases (Medline, Embase, DARE, CINAHL), reference lists of relevant studies, and contacted experts to identify articles assessing clinical features of serious infection in children. 1939 potentially relevant studies were identified. Studies were selected on the basis of six criteria: design (studies of diagnostic accuracy or prediction rules), participants (otherwise healthy children aged 1 month to 18 years), setting (ambulatory care), outcome (serious infection), features assessed (assessable in ambulatory care setting), and sufficient data reported. Quality assessment was based on the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies criteria. We calculated likelihood ratios for the presence (positive likelihood ratio) or absence (negative likelihood ratio) of each clinical feature and pre-test and post-test probabilities of the outcome. Clinical features with a positive likelihood ratio of more than 5.0 were deemed red flags (ie, warning signs for serious infection); features with a negative likelihood ratio of less than 0.2 were deemed rule-out signs. FINDINGS: 30 studies were included in the analysis. Cyanosis (positive likelihood ratio range 2.66-52.20), rapid breathing (1.26-9.78), poor peripheral perfusion (2.39-38.80), and petechial rash (6.18-83.70) were identified as red flags in several studies. Parental concern (positive likelihood ratio 14.40, 95% CI 9.30-22.10) and clinician instinct (positive likelihood ratio 23.50, 95 % CI 16.80-32.70) were identified as strong red flags in one primary care study. Temperature of 40 degrees C or more has value as a red flag in settings with a low prevalence of serious infection. No single clinical feature has rule-out value but some combinations can be used to exclude the possibility of serious infection-for example, pneumonia is very unlikely (negative likelihood ratio 0.07, 95% CI 0.01-0.46) if the child is not short of breath and there is no parental concern. The Yale Observation Scale had little value in confirming (positive likelihood ratio range 1.10-6.70) or excluding (negative likelihood ratio range 0.16-0.97) the possibility of serious infection. INTERPRETATION: The red flags for serious infection that we identified should be used routinely, but serious illness will still be missed without effective use of precautionary measures. We now need to identify the level of risk at which clinical action should be taken. FUNDING: Health Technology Assessment and National Institute for Health Research National School for Primary Care Research.