Rates of sexual partner acquisition from nationally representative surveys: variation between countries and by age, sex, wealth, partner and HIV status.

BACKGROUND: Knowing levels and determinants of partnership acquisition will help inform interventions that try to reduce transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) including HIV. METHODS: We used population-based, cross-sectional data from 47 Demographic and Health Surveys to calculate rates of partner acquisition among men and women (15-49years), and identified socio-demographic correlates for partner acquisition. Partner acquisition rates were estimated as the total number of acquisitions divided by the person-time in the period covered by the survey. For each survey and by sex, we estimated age-specific partner acquisition rates and used age-adjusted piecewise exponential survival models to explore whether there was any association between wealth, HIV status and partner status with partner acquisition rates. RESULTS: Across countries, the median partner acquisition rates were 30/100 person-years for men (interquartile range 21-45) and 13/100 person-years for women (interquartile range 6-18). There were substantial variations in partner acquisition rates by age. Associations between wealth and partner acquisition rates varied across countries. People with a cohabiting partner were less likely to acquire a new one, and this effect was stronger for women than men and varied substantially between countries. Women living with HIV had higher partner acquisition rates than HIV-negative women but this association was less apparent for men. At a population level, partner acquisition rates were correlated with HIV incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Partner acquisition rates are variable and are associated with important correlates of STIs and thus could be used to identify groups at high risk of STIs.

Population-level adult mortality following the expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Rakai, Uganda.

There are limited data on the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on population-level adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed data for 2000-14 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, where free ART was scaled up after 2004. Using non-parametric and parametric (Weibull) survival analysis, we estimated trends in average person-years lived between exact ages 15 and 50, per capita life-years lost to HIV, and the mortality hazards of people living with HIV (PLHIV). Between 2000 and 2014, average adult life-years lived before age 50 increased significantly, from 26.4 to 33.5 years for all women and from 28.6 to 33.8 years for all men. As of 2014, life-years lost to HIV had declined significantly, to 1.3 years among women and 0.4 years among men. Following the roll-out of ART, mortality reductions among PLHIV were initially larger in women than men, but this is no longer the case.

Uptake of services for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in a community cohort in rural Tanzania from 2005 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of population-level coverage with prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services are vital for monitoring programmes but are rarely undertaken. This study describes uptake of PMTCT services among HIV-positive pregnant women in a community cohort in rural Tanzania. METHODS: Kisesa cohort incorporates demographic and HIV sero-surveillance rounds since 1994. Cohort data were linked retrospectively to records from four Kisesa clinics with PMTCT services from 2009 (HIV care and treatment clinic (CTC) available in one facility from 2008; referrals to city hospitals for PMTCT and antiretroviral treatment (ART) from 2005). The proportion of HIV-positive pregnant women residing in Kisesa in 2005-2012 who accessed PMTCT service components (based on linkage to facility records) was calculated per HIV-positive pregnancy and by year, with adjustments made to account for the sensitivity of the linkage algorithm. RESULTS: Out of 1497 HIV-positive pregnancies overall (to 849 women), 26% (n = 387/1497) were not linked to any facility records, 35% (n = 519/1497) registered for ANC but not HIV services (29% (n = 434/1497) were not tested at ANC or diagnosed previously), 8% (n = 119/1497) enrolled in PMTCT but not CTC services (6 % (n = 95/1497) received antiretroviral prophylaxis), and 32% (n = 472/1497) registered for CTC (14% (n = 204/1497) received ART or prophylaxis) (raw estimates). Adjusted estimates for coverage with ANC were 92%, 57% with HIV care, and 29 % with antiretroviral drugs in 2005-2012, trending upwards over time. CONCLUSIONS: Population-level coverage with PMTCT services was low overall, with weaknesses throughout the service continuum, but increased over time. Option B+ should improve coverage with antiretrovirals for PMTCT through simplified decisions for initiating ART, but will rely on strengthening access to CTC services.

Effect of HIV infection on pregnancy-related mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: secondary analyses of pooled community-based data from the network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA).

BACKGROUND: Model-based estimates of the global proportions of maternal deaths that are in HIV-infected women range from 7% to 21%, and the effects of HIV on the risk of maternal death is highly uncertain. We used longitudinal data from the Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA) network to estimate the excess mortality associated with HIV during pregnancy and the post-partum period in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: The ALPHA network pooled data gathered between June, 1989 and April, 2012 in six community-based studies in eastern and southern Africa with HIV serological surveillance and verbal-autopsy reporting. Deaths occurring during pregnancy and up to 42 days post partum were defined as pregnancy related. Pregnant or post-partum person-years were calculated for HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women, and HIV-infected to HIV-uninfected mortality rate ratios and HIV-attributable rates were compared between pregnant or post-partum women and women who were not pregnant or post partum. FINDINGS: 138,074 women aged 15-49 years contributed 636,213 person-years of observation. 49,568 women had 86,963 pregnancies. 6760 of these women died, 235 of them during pregnancy or the post-partum period. Mean prevalence of HIV infection across all person-years in the pooled data was 17.2% (95% CI 17.0-17.3), but 60 of 118 (50.8%) of the women of known HIV status who died during pregnancy or post partum were HIV infected. The mortality rate ratio of HIV-infected to HIV-uninfected women was 20.5 (18.9-22.4) in women who were not pregnant or post partum and 8.2 (5.7-11.8) in pregnant or post-partum women. Excess mortality attributable to HIV was 51.8 (47.8-53.8) per 1000 person-years in women who were not pregnant or post partum and 11.8 (8.4-15.3) per 1000 person-years in pregnant or post-partum women. INTERPRETATION: HIV-infected pregnant or post-partum women had around eight times higher mortality than did their HIV-uninfected counterparts. On the basis of this estimate, we predict that roughly 24% of deaths in pregnant or post-partum women are attributable to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that safe motherhood programmes should pay special attention to the needs of HIV-infected pregnant or post-partum women. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Health Metrics Network (WHO).

Levels, trends and inequalities in mortality among 5-19-year-olds in Tanzania: Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance Study (1995-2022).

Background: For the past two decades, health priorities in Tanzania have focussed on children under-five, leaving behind the older children and adolescents (5-19 years). Understanding mortality patterns beyond 5 years is important in bridging a healthy gap between childhood to adulthood. We aimed to estimate mortality levels, trends, and inequalities among 5-19-year-olds using population data from the Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Tanzania and further compare the population level estimates with global estimates. Methods: Using data from the Magu HDSS from 1995 to 2022, from Kaplan Meir survival probabilities, we computed annual mortality probabilities for ages 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 and determined the average annual rate of change in mortality by fitting the variance weighted least square regression on annual mortality probabilities. We compared 5-19 trends with younger children aged 1-4 years. We further disaggregated mortality by sex, area of residence and wealth tertiles, and we computed age-stratified risk ratios with respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox proportional hazard model to determine inequalities. We further compared population-level estimates in all-cause mortality with global estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and the Global Burden of Disease study by computing the relative differences to the estimates. Results: Mortality declined steadily among the three age groups from 1995 to 2022, whereby the average annual rate of decline increased with age (2.2%, 2.7%, and 2.9% for 5-9-, 10-14-, and 15-19-year-old age groups, respectively). The pace of this decline was lower than that of younger children aged 1-4 years (4.8% decline). We observed significant mortality inequalities with boys, those residing in rural areas, and those from poorest wealth tertiles lagging behind. While Magu estimates were close to global estimates for the 5-9-year-old age group, we observed divergent results for adolescents (10-19 years), with Magu estimates lying between the global estimates. Conclusion: The pace of mortality decline was lower for the 5-19-year-old age group compared to younger children, with observable inequalities by socio-demographic characteristics. Determining the burden of disease across different strata is important in the development of evidence-based targeted interventions to address the mortality burden and inequalities in this age group, as it is an important transition period to adulthood.

Association between breastfeeding duration and educational attainment in rural Southwest Uganda: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Breastfeeding is important for early childhood nutrition and health. The positive effects on educational outcomes may be attributed to socioeconomic factors. Socioeconomic status is not a strong predictor of breastfeeding in sub-Saharan African countries. Yet, few studies have investigated the association between breastfeeding and educational outcomes in these countries. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the association between breastfeeding duration and children's educational attainment in rural Southwest Uganda. METHODS: We analysed longitudinal data on 3018 children who had information on breastfeeding and were followed for at least 5 years, with at least one primary school grade recorded by 2005. Data on breastfeeding duration were collected from mothers. The highest school grade was recorded repeatedly between ages 6 and 12 years. We calculated age-for-grade based on whether a child was on, over, or under the official age for a grade. Generalised estimating equations and binary logistic regression estimated the effect of breastfeeding duration on being 2 years, 3 or more years, or any years over-age for grade in primary school, adjusting for socioeconomic status and maternal-child characteristics. RESULTS: Most mothers breastfed for more than a year. Just over one-third breastfed for 18-23 months, and 30% breastfed for longer. By age eight, 42% of the children were two years over-age for their grade. Three or more years over-age for grade increased from 19% at age nine to 56% at age 12. Both adjusted and unadjusted estimates were consistent in showing reduced odds for children being 2 years, 3 or more years, or any years over-age for grade among children breastfed for 7-12, 13-17, 18-23, and > 23 months compared to those breastfed for 0-6 months. There was no evidence to support an overall association between breastfeeding duration and being over-age for grade. There was no evidence of association in the sex and age sub-group analyses. CONCLUSION: Although we found no association between breastfeeding duration and educational attainment, breastfeeding remains important for children's health and nutrition, and mothers should be encouraged and supported to breastfeed for the recommended duration.

Main findings: We found no clear evidence of an association between breastfeeding duration and educational attainment in rural Uganda.Added knowledge: The findings of this study contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between breastfeeding and educational outcomes in sub-Saharan African countries, where evidence on this topic is limited.Global health impact for policy and action: Our findings should not discourage breastfeeding, as it is essential for infant health and nutrition.

Estimation of cause-specific mortality in Rakai, Uganda, using verbal autopsy 1999-2019.

BACKGROUND: There are scant data on the causes of adult deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated the level and trends in adult mortality, overall and by different causes, in rural Rakai, Uganda, by age, sex, and HIV status. OBJECTIVES: To estimate and analyse adult cause-specific mortality trends in Rakai, Uganda. METHODOLOGY: Mortality information by cause, age, sex, and HIV status was recorded in the Rakai Community Cohort study using verbal autopsy interviews, HIV serosurveys, and residency data. We estimated the average number of years lived in adulthood. Using demographic decomposition methods, we estimated the contribution of each cause of death to adult mortality based on the average number of years lived in adulthood. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2019, 63082 adults (15-60 years) were censused, with 1670 deaths registered. Of these, 1656 (99.2%) had completed cause of death data from verbal autopsy. The crude adult death rate was 5.60 (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.33-5.87) per 1000 person-years of observation (pyo). The crude death rate decreased from 11.41 (95% CI: 10.61-12.28) to 3.27 (95% CI: 2.89-3.68) per 1000 pyo between 1999-2004 and 2015-2019. The average number of years lived in adulthood increased in people living with HIV and decreased in HIV-negative individuals between 2000 and 2019. Communicable diseases, primarily HIV and Malaria, had the biggest decreases, which improved the average number of years lived by approximately extra 12 years of life in females and 6 years in males. There were increases in deaths due to non-communicable diseases and external causes, which reduced the average number of years lived in adulthood by 2.0 years and 1.5 years in females and males, respectively. CONCLUSION: There has been a significant decline in overall mortality from 1999 to 2019, with the greatest decline seen in people living with HIV since the availability of antiretroviral therapy in 2004. By 2020, the predominant causes of death among females were non-communicable diseases, with external causes of death dominating in males.

Main findings: There are significant declines in mortality in people living with HIV. However, mortality in HIV-negative people increased due to non-communicable diseases in females, and injuries and external causes of death among males.Added knowledge: In this HIV-endemic area, decreasing adult mortality has been documented over the last 20 years. This paper benchmarks the changes in cause-specific mortality in this area.Global health impact for policy action: As in many African countries, more effort is needed to reduce mortality for non-communicable diseases, injuries, and external causes of death as these seem to have been neglected.

Temporal changes in cause of death among adolescents and adults in six countries in eastern and southern Africa in 1995-2019: a multi-country surveillance study of verbal autopsy data.

BACKGROUND: The absence of high-quality comprehensive civil registration and vital statistics systems across many settings in Africa has led to little empirical data on causes of death in the region. We aimed to use verbal autopsy data to provide comparative, population-based estimates of cause-specific mortality among adolescents and adults in eastern and southern Africa. METHODS: In this surveillance study, we harmonised verbal autopsy and residency data from nine health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) sites in Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, each with variable coverage from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2019. We included all deaths to adolescents and adults aged 12 or over that were residents of the study sites and had a verbal autopsy conducted. InSilicoVA, a probabilistic model, was used to assign cause of death on the basis of the signs and symptoms reported in the verbal autopsy. Levels and trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates and cause-specific mortality fractions were calculated, stratified by HDSS site, sex, age, and calendar periods. FINDINGS: 52 484 deaths and 5 157 802 person-years were reported among 1 071 913 individuals across the nine sites during the study period. 47 961 (91·4%) deaths had a verbal autopsy, of which 46 570 (97·1%) were assigned a cause of death. All-cause mortality generally decreased across the HDSS sites during this period, particularly for adults aged 20-59 years. In many of the HDSS sites, these decreases were driven by reductions in HIV and tuberculosis-related deaths. In 2010-14, the top causes of death were: road traffic accidents, HIV or tuberculosis, and meningitis or sepsis in adolescents (12-19 years); HIV or tuberculosis in adults aged 20-59 years; and neoplasms and cardiovascular disease in adults aged 60 years and older. There was greater between-HDSS and between-sex variation in causes of death for adolescents compared with adults. INTERPRETATION: This study shows progress in reducing mortality across eastern and southern Africa but also highlights age, sex, within-HDSS, and between-HDSS differences in causes of adolescent and adult deaths. These findings highlight the importance of detailed local data to inform health needs to ensure continued improvements in survival. FUNDING: National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of the US National Institutes of Health.

Comparison of survival analysis approaches to modelling age at first sex among youth in Kisesa Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Many studies analyze sexual and reproductive event data using descriptive life tables. Survival analysis has better power to estimate factors associated with age at first sex (AFS), but proportional hazards models may not be right model to use. This study used accelerated failure time (AFT) models, restricted Mean Survival time model (RMST) models, with semi and non-parametric methods to assess age at first sex (AFS), factors associated with AFS, and verify underlying assumptions for each analysis. METHODS: Self-reported sexual debut data was used from respondents 15-24 years in eight cross-sectional surveys between 1994-2016, and from adolescents' survey in an observational community study (2019-2020) in northwest Tanzania. Median AFS was estimated in each survey using non-parametric and parametric models. Cox regression, AFT parametric models (exponential, gamma, generalized gamma, Gompertz, Weibull, log-normal and log-logistic), and RMST were used to estimate and identify factors associated with AFS. The models were compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), where lower values represent a better model fit. RESULTS: The results showed that in every survey, the Cox regression model had higher AIC and BIC compared to the other models. Overall, AFT had the best fit in every survey round. The estimated median AFS using the parametric and non-parametric methods were close. In the adolescent survey, log-logistic AFT showed that females and those attending secondary and higher education level had a longer time to first sex (Time ratio (TR) = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06, TR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02-1.08, respectively) compared to males and those who reported not being in school. Cell phone ownership (TR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91-0.96), alcohol consumption (TR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.84-0.93), and employed adolescents (TR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) shortened time to first sex. CONCLUSION: The AFT model is better than Cox PH model in estimating AFS among the young population.

Prevalence and risk factors of unsuppressed viral load among pregnant and breastfeeding women in sub-Saharan Africa: analysis from population-based surveys.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the prevalence of viral suppression and risk factors for unsuppressed viral load among pregnant and breastfeeding women living with HIV (WLH). DESIGN: Pooled analysis among pregnant and breastfeeding WLH from Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) cross-sectional surveys from 10 sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: Questionnaires included sociodemographic, relationship-related, and HIV-related items, while blood tests examined HIV serostatus and viral load (data collected 2015-2018). The weighted prevalence of viral suppression was calculated. Logistic regression was used to examine risk factors for unsuppressed viral load (≥1000 copies/ml). RESULTS: Of 1685 pregnant or breastfeeding WLH with viral load results, 63.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 60.8-66.7%) were virally suppressed at the study visit. Among all included women, adolescence (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 4.85, 95% CI: 2.58-9.14, P  < 0.001) and nondisclosure of HIV status to partner (aOR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.02-2.14, P  = 0.04) were associated with unsuppressed viral load. Among only partnered women, adolescence (aOR: 7.95, 95% CI: 3.32-19.06, P  < 0.001), and lack of paid employment (aOR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.47-0.94, P  = 0.02) were associated with unsuppressed viral load. Examining only women on ART, nondisclosure of HIV status to partner (aOR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.19-2.88, P  = 0.006) was associated with unsuppressed viral load. CONCLUSION: Viral suppression among pregnant and breastfeeding WLH in sub-Saharan Africa remains suboptimal. Relationship dynamics around nondisclosure of HIV-positive status to partners was an important risk factor for unsuppressed viral load. Improving HIV care via sensitive discussions around partner dynamics in pregnant and breastfeeding women could improve maternal HIV outcomes and prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT).

Effects of exclusive breastfeeding on educational attainment and longitudinal trajectories of grade progression among children in a 13-year follow-up study in Malawi.

The benefits of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for infant health and survival are well documented. However, its impact on educational outcomes has been contested and poorly researched in Africa. It has been hypothesised that positive associations reported in high-income countries can be attributed to residual confounding by socioeconomic status (SES). Our study investigated whether EBF duration in infancy is associated with educational attainment and age-for-grade attainment trajectories at school-age in rural Malawi. Longitudinal data on 1021 children at the Karonga demographic surveillance site in Malawi were analysed. Breastfeeding data were collected 3 months after birth and again at age one. The school grade of each child was recorded each year from age 6 until age 13. We calculated age-for-grade based on whether a child was at, over, or under the official expected age for a grade. Generalised estimating equations estimated the average effect of breastfeeding on age-for-grade. Latent class growth analysis identified age-for-grade trajectories, and multinomial logistic regression examined their associations with EBF. Maternal-child characteristics, SES, and HIV status were controlled. Overall, 35.9% of the children were exclusively breastfed for 6 months. Over-age for grade steadily increased from 9.6% at age 8 to 41.9% at age 13. There was some evidence that EBF for 6 months was associated with lower odds of being over-age for grade than EBF for less than 3 months (aOR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.64-1.06). In subgroup analyses, children exclusively breastfed for 6 months in infancy were less likely to be over-age for grades between ages 6-9 (aOR = 0.64, 95%CI = 0.43-0.94). Latent class growth analysis also provided some evidence that EBF reduced the odds of falling behind in the early school grades (aOR = 0.66, 95%CI = 0.41-1.08) but not later. Our study adds to the growing evidence that EBF for 6 months has benefits beyond infant health and survival, supporting the WHO's recommendation on EBF.

Comparison of programmatic data from antenatal clinics with population-based HIV prevalence estimates in the era of universal test and treat in western Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: To compare HIV prevalence estimates from routine programme data in antenatal care (ANC) clinics in western Kenya with HIV prevalence estimates in a general population sample in the era of universal test and treat (UTT). METHODS: The study was conducted in the area covered by the Siaya Health Demographic Surveillance System (Siaya HDSS) in western Kenya and used data from ANC clinics and the general population. ANC data (n = 1,724) were collected in 2018 from 13 clinics located within the HDSS. The general population was a random sample of women of reproductive age (15-49) who reside in the Siaya HDSS and participated in an HIV sero-prevalence survey in 2018 (n = 2,019). Total and age-specific HIV prevalence estimates were produced from both datasets and demographic decomposition methods were used to quantify the contribution of the differences in age distributions and age-specific HIV prevalence to the total HIV prevalence estimates. RESULTS: Total HIV prevalence was 18.0% (95% CI 16.3-19.9%) in the ANC population compared with 18.4% (95% CI 16.8-20.2%) in the general population sample. At most ages, HIV prevalence was higher in the ANC population than in the general population. The age distribution of the ANC population was younger than that of the general population, and because HIV prevalence increases with age, this reduced the total HIV prevalence among ANC attendees relative to prevalence standardised to the general population age distribution. CONCLUSION: In the era of UTT, total HIV prevalence among ANC attendees and the general population were comparable, but age-specific HIV prevalence was higher in the ANC population in most age groups. The expansion of treatment may have led to changes in both the fertility of women living with HIV and their use of ANC services, and our results lend support to the assertion that the relationship between ANC and general population HIV prevalence estimates are highly dynamic.

Updates to the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model to estimate HIV trends for adults and children.

BACKGROUND: The Spectrum and Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) programs are used to estimate key HIV indicators based on HIV surveillance and surveys, programme statistics and epidemic patterns. These indicators include the number of people living with HIV, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, the number of adults and children needing treatment, the need for preventing mother to child transmission (PMTCT) and the impact of antiretroviral treatment on survival. METHODS: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections regularly reviews new data and information needs and recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions used in Spectrum. The latest updates described here were used in the 2011 round of global estimates. RESULTS: Spectrum and EPP have now been combined into one software package to enhance ease of use and ensure consistent data and assumptions for the curve fitting and indicator estimations. Major enhancements to the methods include a new adult model that tracks the HIV+ population by CD4 count; new patterns describing child survival by time of infection (perinatally, <6 months, 7-12 months and 12+ months after birth); a more detailed estimate of mother-to-child transmission that includes differential transmission rates by CD4 count of the mother, the effects of incident infections and new prophylaxis options; and new procedures to estimate uncertainty ranges around regional estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The revised model and software facilitate the preparation of new HIV estimates and use new data to address emerging needs for better information on need for treatment among adults and children.

Using age-specific mortality of HIV infected persons to predict anti-retroviral treatment need: a comparative analysis of data from five African population-based cohort studies.

OBJECTIVES: To present a simple method for estimating population-level anti-retroviral therapy (ART) need that does not rely on knowledge of past HIV incidence. METHODS: A new approach to estimating ART need is developed based on calculating age-specific proportions of HIV-infected adults expected to die within a fixed number of years in the absence of treatment. Mortality data for HIV-infected adults in the pre-treatment era from five African HIV cohort studies were combined to construct a life table, starting at age 15, smoothed with a Weibull model. Assuming that ART should be made available to anyone expected to die within 3 years, conditional 3-year survival probabilities were computed to represent proportions needing ART. The build-up of ART need in a successful programme continuously recruiting infected adults into treatment as they age to within 3 years of expected death was represented by annually extending the conditional survival range. RESULTS: The Weibull model: survival probability in the infected state from age 15 = exp(-0.0073 × (age - 15)(1.69)) fitted the pooled age-specific mortality data very closely. Initial treatment need for infected persons increased rapidly with age, from 15% at age 20-24 to 32% at age 40-44 and 42% at age 60-64. Overall need in the treatment of naïve population was 24%, doubling within 5 years in a programme continually recruiting patients entering the high-risk period for dying. CONCLUSION: A reasonable projection of treatment need in an ART naive population can be made based on the age and gender profile of HIV-infected people.

The impact of antiretroviral therapy on adult mortality in rural Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on mortality rates among adults participating in an HIV community cohort study in north-west Tanzania. METHODS: Serological and demographic surveillance rounds have been undertaken in a population of approximately 30,000 people since 1994. Free HIV care including ART has been available since 2005. Event history analysis was used to compare mortality rates among HIV-negative and HIV-positive adults in the 5-year period before and after the introduction of ART. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios were calculated using exponential regression models. Interaction between time period and HIV status was assessed to investigate whether there was a non-linear relationship between these two variables. RESULTS: Male and female mortality patterns varied over the pre- and post-ART period. In women, the crude death rate fell for both HIV negatives and HIV positives hazard rate ratio (HRR = 0.71; 95%CI 0.51-0.99 and HRR = 0.68; 95%CI: 0.46-0.99, respectively). For men, the mortality among the HIV negatives increased (HRR = 1.47; 95%CI: 1.06-2.03) while the decline in mortality among the HIV positives (HRR = 0.77; 95%CI 0.52-1.13) was not statistically significant. The largest decrease in HIV-positive mortality over the two periods was among the 30- to 44-year-old age group for women and among the 45- to 59-year-old age group for men. CONCLUSION: There has been a modest effect on mortality in the study population following the introduction of free ART 5 years ago. Improving access to treatment and placing greater focus on retaining individuals on treatment are essential if the full potential of treatment for reducing HIV-related mortality is to be realised.

The effect of antiretroviral therapy provision on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality at the population level--a comparative analysis of data from four settings in Southern and East Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To provide a broad and up-to-date picture of the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision on population-level mortality in Southern and East Africa. METHODS: Data on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality among 15-59 year olds were analysed from demographic surveillance sites (DSS) in Karonga (Malawi), Kisesa (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda) and the Africa Centre (South Africa), using Poisson regression. Trends over time from up to 5 years prior to ART roll-out, to 4-6 years afterwards, are presented, overall and by age and sex. For Masaka and Kisesa, trends are analysed separately for HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals. For Karonga and the Africa Centre, trends in AIDS and non-AIDS mortality are analysed using verbal autopsy data. RESULTS: For all-cause mortality, overall rate ratios (RRs) comparing the period 2-6 years following ART roll-out with the pre-ART period were 0.58 (5.9 vs. 10.2 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Karonga, 0.79 (7.2 vs. 9.1 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Kisesa, 0.61 (6.7 compared with 11.0 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Masaka and 0.79 (14.8 compared with 18.6 deaths per 1000 person-years) in the Africa Centre DSS. The mortality decline was seen only in HIV-positive individuals/AIDS mortality, with no decline in HIV-negative individuals/non-AIDS mortality. Less difference was seen in Kisesa where ART uptake was lower. CONCLUSIONS: Falls in all-cause mortality are consistent with ART uptake. The largest falls occurred where ART provision has been decentralised or available locally, suggesting that this is important.

Time trends in the prevalence and determinants of age-appropriate breast feeding among children aged 0-23 months in Ghana: a pooled analysis of population-based surveys, 2003-2017.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the sociodemographic and maternal-child characteristics associated with age-appropriate breast feeding among children aged 0-23 months in Ghana. METHODS: We pooled data on 12 743 children aged 0-23 months from three Demographic and Health Surveys (2003, 2008 and 2014) and three Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (2006, 2011 and 2017-2018). The outcome was age-appropriate breast feeding from birth to 23 months, with age-appropriate breast feeding defined as exclusive breast feeding at 0-5 months (ie, at less than 6 months) and breastfeeding alongside appropriate complementary feeding at 6-23 months. Potential determinants were maternal-child sociodemographic, obstetric and healthcare factors. Logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with age-appropriate breast feeding. We accounted for the complex sampling design of the cross-sectional surveys in the analysis. RESULTS: Most children aged 0-3 months were exclusively breastfed. Among children aged 4-5 months, the most common feeding pattern was breastfeeding alongside water and/or solid foods. Exclusive breastfeeding prevalence in children less than 6 months peaked in 2008 at 62.8% and declined to 42.9% in 2017. For 6-11 month olds, the percentage experiencing age-appropriate breast feeding has been stable over the last four surveys, ranging from 79.3% in 2008 to 81.1% in 2017. Age-appropriate breast feeding in 12-23 month olds declined from 77.8% in 2003 to 61.2% in 2017. Rural residence, younger age, non-facility births and multiple births were associated with decreased odds of exclusively breast feeding. For 6-11 month olds, age-appropriate breast feeding was less likely if the woman did not receive postnatal care. Younger age, being unmarried, high income, wanting a child later and earlier birth order were associated with decreased odds of age-appropriate breast feeding in 12-23 month olds. CONCLUSION: Ghanaian children are now less likely to be exclusively breastfed than they were a decade ago. To succeed, breastfeeding promotion programmes should adopt approaches that address the predictors of suboptimal breast feeding at each age, as identified in this study.

The association of breastfeeding with cognitive development and educational achievement in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review.

Background: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of studies mainly from high-income countries suggest that breastfeeding improves cognitive function and educational achievement. However, these associations may be a manifestation of who breastfeeds in these settings rather than an actual effect of breastfeeding. We investigated the association of breastfeeding with cognitive development and educational achievements in sub-Saharan Africa, where breastfeeding is the norm, and socioeconomic status is not strongly correlated with ever breastfeeding. Methods: We searched Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Africa-Wide Information in January 2021 for studies that assessed the cognitive and educational benefits of breastfeeding in children and adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa. Two reviewers independently screened, extracted, and critically appraised the included studies. Results: After reviewing 5552 abstracts and 151 full-text articles, seventeen studies on cognitive development and two on educational achievements met our predefined inclusion criteria. The included studies were from ten sub-Saharan African countries and published between 2013 and 2021, with sample sizes ranging from 54 to 6573. Most of the studies (n = 14) were prospective cohort studies, but only nine collected data on breastfeeding prospectively. The studies differed in analytic approaches and cognitive and educational achievements measurements. Of the 17 studies on cognitive development, only four adjusted sufficiently for key confounders. None of these four studies found an overall association between breastfeeding and cognitive development in children or adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa. The two studies on education measured achievements based on the highest grade of school attained, 12 or more years of education, or grade repetition at age 7-11 years. Both studies adjusted for a range of sociodemographic factors and found no evidence that children exclusively breastfed or breastfed for a longer duration have a better educational outcome than sub-optimally breastfed children. Conclusions: The current evidence from sub-Saharan Africa is limited but does not corroborate previous findings that breastfeeding is associated with improved cognitive development and educational achievement. Registration: This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021236009.

No association between fertility desire and HIV infections among men and women: Findings from community-based studies before and after implementation of an early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation program in the rural district of North-western Tanzania.

Background: Fertility is associated with the desire to have children. The impacts of HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) on fertility are well known, but their impacts on the desire for children are less well known in Tanzania. We used data from two studies carried out at different periods of ART coverage in rural Tanzania to explore the relationship between HIV infection and fertility desires in men and women. Methods: We conducted secondary data analysis of the two community-based studies conducted in 2012 and 2017 in the Magu Health and Demographic system site, in Tanzania. Information on fertility desires, HIV status, and social-economic and demographic variables were analyzed. Fertility desire was defined as whether or not the participant wanted to bear a child in the next two years. The main analysis used log-binomial regression to assess the association between fertility desire and HIV infection. Results: In the 2012 study, 43% (95% CI 40.7-45.3) of men and 33.3% (95% CI 31.8 - 35.0) women wanted another child in the next two years. In 2017 the percentage rose to 55.7% (95% CI 53.6 - 57.8) in men and 41.5% (95% CI 39.8 - 43.1) in women. Although fertility desire in men and women were higher in HIV uninfected compared to HIV infected, age-adjusted analysis did not show a statistical significance difference in both studies (2012: PR=1.02, 95%CI 0.835 - 1.174, p<0.915 and 2017: PR = 0.90 95%CI 0.743 - 1.084 p= 0.262). Discussion: One-third of women and forty percent of men desired for fertility in 2012, while forty percent of women and nearly half of men desired for fertility in 2017. The data showed fertility desire, in 2012 and 2017 were not related to HIV infection in both periods of ART coverage.