Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning.

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (ß coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

HAPNEST: efficient, large-scale generation and evaluation of synthetic datasets for genotypes and phenotypes.

MOTIVATION: Existing methods for simulating synthetic genotype and phenotype datasets have limited scalability, constraining their usability for large-scale analyses. Moreover, a systematic approach for evaluating synthetic data quality and a benchmark synthetic dataset for developing and evaluating methods for polygenic risk scores are lacking. RESULTS: We present HAPNEST, a novel approach for efficiently generating diverse individual-level genotypic and phenotypic data. In comparison to alternative methods, HAPNEST shows faster computational speed and a lower degree of relatedness with reference panels, while generating datasets that preserve key statistical properties of real data. These desirable synthetic data properties enabled us to generate 6.8 million common variants and nine phenotypes with varying degrees of heritability and polygenicity across 1 million individuals. We demonstrate how HAPNEST can facilitate biobank-scale analyses through the comparison of seven methods to generate polygenic risk scoring across multiple ancestry groups and different genetic architectures. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: A synthetic dataset of 1 008 000 individuals and nine traits for 6.8 million common variants is available at https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-BSST936. The HAPNEST software for generating synthetic datasets is available as Docker/Singularity containers and open source Julia and C code at https://github.com/intervene-EU-H2020/synthetic_data.

Periodic mobile application (eMOM) with self-tracking of glucose and lifestyle improves treatment of diet-controlled gestational diabetes without human guidance: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Digitalization with minimal human resources could support self-management among women with gestational diabetes and improve maternal and neonatal outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate if a periodic mobile application (eMOM) with wearable sensors improves maternal and neonatal outcomes among women with diet-controlled gestational diabetes without additional guidance from healthcare personnel. STUDY DESIGN: Women with gestational diabetes were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio at 24 to 28 weeks' gestation to the intervention or the control arm. The intervention arm received standard care in combination with use of the periodic eMOM, whereas the control arm received only standard care. The intervention arm used eMOM with a continuous glucose monitor, an activity tracker, and a food diary 1 week/month until delivery. The primary outcome was the change in fasting plasma glucose from baseline to 35 to 37 weeks' gestation. Secondary outcomes included capillary glucose, weight gain, nutrition, physical activity, pregnancy complications, and neonatal outcomes, such as macrosomia. RESULTS: In total, 148 women (76 in the intervention arm, 72 in the control arm; average age, 34.1±4.0 years; body mass index, 27.1±5.0 kg/m2) were randomized. The intervention arm showed a lower mean change in fasting plasma glucose than the control arm (difference, -0.15 mmol/L vs -2.7 mg/mL; P=.022) and lower capillary fasting glucose levels (difference, -0.04 mmol/L vs -0.7 mg/mL; P=.002). The intervention arm also increased their intake of vegetables (difference, 11.8 g/MJ; P=.043), decreased their sedentary behavior (difference, -27.3 min/d; P=.043), and increased light physical activity (difference, 22.8 min/d; P=.009) when compared with the control arm. In addition, gestational weight gain was lower (difference, -1.3 kg; P=.015), and there were less newborns with macrosomia in the intervention arm (difference, -13.1 %; P=.036). Adherence to eMOM was high (daily use >90%), and the usage correlated with lower maternal fasting (P=.0006) and postprandial glucose levels (P=.017), weight gain (P=.028), intake of energy (P=.021) and carbohydrates (P=.003), and longer duration of the daily physical activity (P=.0006). There were no significant between-arm differences in terms of pregnancy complications. CONCLUSION: Self-tracking of lifestyle factors and glucose levels without additional guidance improves self-management and the treatment of gestational diabetes, which also benefits newborns. The results of this study support the use of digital self-management and education tools in maternity care.

Bayesian modeling of the impact of antibiotic resistance on the efficiency of MRSA decolonization.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Colonization by MRSA increases the risk of infection and transmission, underscoring the importance of decolonization efforts. However, success of these decolonization protocols varies, raising the possibility that some MRSA strains may be more persistent than others. Here, we studied how the persistence of MRSA colonization correlates with genomic presence of antibiotic resistance genes. Our analysis using a Bayesian mixed effects survival model found that genetic determinants of high-level resistance to mupirocin was strongly associated with failure of the decolonization protocol. However, we did not see a similar effect with genetic resistance to chlorhexidine or other antibiotics. Including strain-specific random effects improved the predictive performance, indicating that some strain characteristics other than resistance also contributed to persistence. Study subject-specific random effects did not improve the model. Our results highlight the need to consider the properties of the colonizing MRSA strain when deciding which treatments to include in the decolonization protocol.

Modelling G×E with historical weather information improves genomic prediction in new environments.

MOTIVATION: Interaction between the genotype and the environment (G×E) has a strong impact on the yield of major crop plants. Although influential, taking G×E explicitly into account in plant breeding has remained difficult. Recently G×E has been predicted from environmental and genomic covariates, but existing works have not shown that generalization to new environments and years without access to in-season data is possible and practical applicability remains unclear. Using data from a Barley breeding programme in Finland, we construct an in silico experiment to study the viability of G×E prediction under practical constraints. RESULTS: We show that the response to the environment of a new generation of untested Barley cultivars can be predicted in new locations and years using genomic data, machine learning and historical weather observations for the new locations. Our results highlight the need for models of G×E: non-linear effects clearly dominate linear ones, and the interaction between the soil type and daily rain is identified as the main driver for G×E for Barley in Finland. Our study implies that genomic selection can be used to capture the yield potential in G×E effects for future growth seasons, providing a possible means to achieve yield improvements, needed for feeding the growing population. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The data accompanied by the method code (http://research.cs.aalto.fi/pml/software/gxe/bioinformatics_codes.zip) is available in the form of kernels to allow reproducing the results. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A Bayesian model of acquisition and clearance of bacterial colonization incorporating within-host variation.

Bacterial populations that colonize a host can play important roles in host health, including serving as a reservoir that transmits to other hosts and from which invasive strains emerge, thus emphasizing the importance of understanding rates of acquisition and clearance of colonizing populations. Studies of colonization dynamics have been based on assessment of whether serial samples represent a single population or distinct colonization events. With the use of whole genome sequencing to determine genetic distance between isolates, a common solution to estimate acquisition and clearance rates has been to assume a fixed genetic distance threshold below which isolates are considered to represent the same strain. However, this approach is often inadequate to account for the diversity of the underlying within-host evolving population, the time intervals between consecutive measurements, and the uncertainty in the estimated acquisition and clearance rates. Here, we present a fully Bayesian model that provides probabilities of whether two strains should be considered the same, allowing us to determine bacterial clearance and acquisition from genomes sampled over time. Our method explicitly models the within-host variation using population genetic simulation, and the inference is done using a combination of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We validate the method with multiple carefully conducted simulations and demonstrate its use in practice by analyzing a collection of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates from a large recently completed longitudinal clinical study. An R-code implementation of the method is freely available at: https://github.com/mjarvenpaa/bacterial-colonization-model.

Correction: Dynamics and impact of homologous recombination on the evolution of Legionella pneumophila.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgen.1006855.].

Dynamics and impact of homologous recombination on the evolution of Legionella pneumophila.

Legionella pneumophila is an environmental bacterium and the causative agent of Legionnaires' disease. Previous genomic studies have shown that recombination accounts for a high proportion (>96%) of diversity within several major disease-associated sequence types (STs) of L. pneumophila. This suggests that recombination represents a potentially important force shaping adaptation and virulence. Despite this, little is known about the biological effects of recombination in L. pneumophila, particularly with regards to homologous recombination (whereby genes are replaced with alternative allelic variants). Using newly available population genomic data, we have disentangled events arising from homologous and non-homologous recombination in six major disease-associated STs of L. pneumophila (subsp. pneumophila), and subsequently performed a detailed characterisation of the dynamics and impact of homologous recombination. We identified genomic "hotspots" of homologous recombination that include regions containing outer membrane proteins, the lipopolysaccharide (LPS) region and Dot/Icm effectors, which provide interesting clues to the selection pressures faced by L. pneumophila. Inference of the origin of the recombined regions showed that isolates have most frequently imported DNA from isolates belonging to their own clade, but also occasionally from other major clades of the same subspecies. This supports the hypothesis that the possibility for horizontal exchange of new adaptations between major clades of the subspecies may have been a critical factor in the recent emergence of several clinically important STs from diverse genomic backgrounds. However, acquisition of recombined regions from another subspecies, L. pneumophila subsp. fraseri, was rarely observed, suggesting the existence of a recombination barrier and/or the possibility of ongoing speciation between the two subspecies. Finally, we suggest that multi-fragment recombination may occur in L. pneumophila, whereby multiple non-contiguous segments that originate from the same molecule of donor DNA are imported into a recipient genome during a single episode of recombination.

Bacmeta: simulator for genomic evolution in bacterial metapopulations.

Summary: The advent of genomic data from densely sampled bacterial populations has created a need for flexible simulators by which models and hypotheses can be efficiently investigated in the light of empirical observations. Bacmeta provides fast stochastic simulation of neutral evolution within a large collection of interconnected bacterial populations with completely adjustable connectivity network. Stochastic events of mutations, recombinations, insertions/deletions, migrations and micro-epidemics can be simulated in discrete non-overlapping generations with a Wright-Fisher model that operates on explicit sequence data of any desired genome length. Each model component, including locus, bacterial strain, population and ultimately the whole metapopulation, is efficiently simulated using C++ objects and detailed metadata from each level can be acquired. The software can be executed in a cluster environment using simple textual input files, enabling, e.g. large-scale simulations and likelihood-free inference. Availability and implementation: Bacmeta is implemented with C++ for Linux, Mac and Windows. It is available at https://bitbucket.org/aleksisipola/bacmeta under the BSD 3-clause license. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Improving genomics-based predictions for precision medicine through active elicitation of expert knowledge.

Motivation: Precision medicine requires the ability to predict the efficacies of different treatments for a given individual using high-dimensional genomic measurements. However, identifying predictive features remains a challenge when the sample size is small. Incorporating expert knowledge offers a promising approach to improve predictions, but collecting such knowledge is laborious if the number of candidate features is very large. Results: We introduce a probabilistic framework to incorporate expert feedback about the impact of genomic measurements on the outcome of interest and present a novel approach to collect the feedback efficiently, based on Bayesian experimental design. The new approach outperformed other recent alternatives in two medical applications: prediction of metabolic traits and prediction of sensitivity of cancer cells to different drugs, both using genomic features as predictors. Furthermore, the intelligent approach to collect feedback reduced the workload of the expert to approximately 11%, compared to a baseline approach. Availability and implementation: Source code implementing the introduced computational methods is freely available at https://github.com/AaltoPML/knowledge-elicitation-for-precision-medicine. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Substitutions of short heterologous DNA segments of intragenomic or extragenomic origins produce clustered genomic polymorphisms.

In a screen for unexplained mutation events we identified a previously unrecognized mechanism generating clustered DNA polymorphisms such as microindels and cumulative SNPs. The mechanism, short-patch double illegitimate recombination (SPDIR), facilitates short single-stranded DNA molecules to invade and replace genomic DNA through two joint illegitimate recombination events. SPDIR is controlled by key components of the cellular genome maintenance machinery in the gram-negative bacterium Acinetobacter baylyi. The source DNA is primarily intragenomic but can also be acquired through horizontal gene transfer. The DNA replacements are nonreciprocal and locus independent. Bioinformatic approaches reveal occurrence of SPDIR events in the gram-positive human pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae and in the human genome.

Efficient Inference of Recent and Ancestral Recombination within Bacterial Populations.

Prokaryotic evolution is affected by horizontal transfer of genetic material through recombination. Inference of an evolutionary tree of bacteria thus relies on accurate identification of the population genetic structure and recombination-derived mosaicism. Rapidly growing databases represent a challenge for computational methods to detect recombinations in bacterial genomes. We introduce a novel algorithm called fastGEAR which identifies lineages in diverse microbial alignments, and recombinations between them and from external origins. The algorithm detects both recent recombinations (affecting a few isolates) and ancestral recombinations between detected lineages (affecting entire lineages), thus providing insight into recombinations affecting deep branches of the phylogenetic tree. In simulations, fastGEAR had comparable power to detect recent recombinations and outstanding power to detect the ancestral ones, compared with state-of-the-art methods, often with a fraction of computational cost. We demonstrate the utility of the method by analyzing a collection of 616 whole-genomes of a recombinogenic pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae, for which the method provided a high-resolution view of recombination across the genome. We examined in detail the penicillin-binding genes across the Streptococcus genus, demonstrating previously undetected genetic exchanges between different species at these three loci. Hence, fastGEAR can be readily applied to investigate mosaicism in bacterial genes across multiple species. Finally, fastGEAR correctly identified many known recombination hotspots and pointed to potential new ones. Matlab code and Linux/Windows executables are available at https://users.ics.aalto.fi/~pemartti/fastGEAR/ (last accessed February 6, 2017).

biMM: efficient estimation of genetic variances and covariances for cohorts with high-dimensional phenotype measurements.

SUMMARY: Genetic research utilizes a decomposition of trait variances and covariances into genetic and environmental parts. Our software package biMM is a computationally efficient implementation of a bivariate linear mixed model for settings where hundreds of traits have been measured on partially overlapping sets of individuals. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Implementation in R freely available at www.iki.fi/mpirinen . CONTACT: matti.pirinen@helsinki.fi. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Speciation trajectories in recombining bacterial species.

It is generally agreed that bacterial diversity can be classified into genetically and ecologically cohesive units, but what produces such variation is a topic of intensive research. Recombination may maintain coherent species of frequently recombining bacteria, but the emergence of distinct clusters within a recombining species, and the impact of habitat structure in this process are not well described, limiting our understanding of how new species are created. Here we present a model of bacterial evolution in overlapping habitat space. We show that the amount of habitat overlap determines the outcome for a pair of clusters, which may range from fast clonal divergence with little interaction between the clusters to a stationary population structure, where different clusters maintain an equilibrium distance between each other for an indefinite time. We fit our model to two data sets. In Streptococcus pneumoniae, we find a genomically and ecologically distinct subset, held at a relatively constant genetic distance from the majority of the population through frequent recombination with it, while in Campylobacter jejuni, we find a minority population we predict will continue to diverge at a higher rate. This approach may predict and define speciation trajectories in multiple bacterial species.

metaCCA: summary statistics-based multivariate meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies using canonical correlation analysis.

MOTIVATION: A dominant approach to genetic association studies is to perform univariate tests between genotype-phenotype pairs. However, analyzing related traits together increases statistical power, and certain complex associations become detectable only when several variants are tested jointly. Currently, modest sample sizes of individual cohorts, and restricted availability of individual-level genotype-phenotype data across the cohorts limit conducting multivariate tests. RESULTS: We introduce metaCCA, a computational framework for summary statistics-based analysis of a single or multiple studies that allows multivariate representation of both genotype and phenotype. It extends the statistical technique of canonical correlation analysis to the setting where original individual-level records are not available, and employs a covariance shrinkage algorithm to achieve robustness.Multivariate meta-analysis of two Finnish studies of nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics by metaCCA, using standard univariate output from the program SNPTEST, shows an excellent agreement with the pooled individual-level analysis of original data. Motivated by strong multivariate signals in the lipid genes tested, we envision that multivariate association testing using metaCCA has a great potential to provide novel insights from already published summary statistics from high-throughput phenotyping technologies. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Code is available at https://github.com/aalto-ics-kepaco CONTACTS: anna.cichonska@helsinki.fi or matti.pirinen@helsinki.fi SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Comprehensive identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with beta-lactam resistance within pneumococcal mosaic genes.

Traditional genetic association studies are very difficult in bacteria, as the generally limited recombination leads to large linked haplotype blocks, confounding the identification of causative variants. Beta-lactam antibiotic resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae arises readily as the bacteria can quickly incorporate DNA fragments encompassing variants that make the transformed strains resistant. However, the causative mutations themselves are embedded within larger recombined blocks, and previous studies have only analysed a limited number of isolates, leading to the description of "mosaic genes" as being responsible for resistance. By comparing a large number of genomes of beta-lactam susceptible and non-susceptible strains, the high frequency of recombination should break up these haplotype blocks and allow the use of genetic association approaches to identify individual causative variants. Here, we performed a genome-wide association study to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and indels that could confer beta-lactam non-susceptibility using 3,085 Thai and 616 USA pneumococcal isolates as independent datasets for the variant discovery. The large sample sizes allowed us to narrow the source of beta-lactam non-susceptibility from long recombinant fragments down to much smaller loci comprised of discrete or linked SNPs. While some loci appear to be universal resistance determinants, contributing equally to non-susceptibility for at least two classes of beta-lactam antibiotics, some play a larger role in resistance to particular antibiotics. All of the identified loci have a highly non-uniform distribution in the populations. They are enriched not only in vaccine-targeted, but also non-vaccine-targeted lineages, which may raise clinical concerns. Identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms underlying resistance will be essential for future use of genome sequencing to predict antibiotic sensitivity in clinical microbiology.

The impact of host metapopulation structure on the population genetics of colonizing bacteria.

Many key bacterial pathogens are frequently carried asymptomatically, and the emergence and spread of these opportunistic pathogens can be driven, or mitigated, via demographic changes within the host population. These inter-host transmission dynamics combine with basic evolutionary parameters such as rates of mutation and recombination, population size and selection, to shape the genetic diversity within bacterial populations. Whilst many studies have focused on how molecular processes underpin bacterial population structure, the impact of host migration and the connectivity of the local populations has received far less attention. A stochastic neutral model incorporating heightened local transmission has been previously shown to fit closely with genetic data for several bacterial species. However, this model did not incorporate transmission limiting population stratification, nor the possibility of migration of strains between subpopulations, which we address here by presenting an extended model. We study the consequences of migration in terms of shared genetic variation and show by simulation that the previously used summary statistic, the allelic mismatch distribution, can be insensitive to even large changes in microepidemic and migration rates. Using likelihood-free inference with genotype network topological summaries we fit a simpler model to commensal and hospital samples from the common nosocomial pathogens Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus epidermidis, Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium. Only the hospital data for E. faecium display clearly marked deviations from the model predictions which may be attributable to its adaptation to the hospital environment.

Assessing multivariate gene-metabolome associations with rare variants using Bayesian reduced rank regression.

MOTIVATION: A typical genome-wide association study searches for associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and a univariate phenotype. However, there is a growing interest to investigate associations between genomics data and multivariate phenotypes, for example, in gene expression or metabolomics studies. A common approach is to perform a univariate test between each genotype-phenotype pair, and then to apply a stringent significance cutoff to account for the large number of tests performed. However, this approach has limited ability to uncover dependencies involving multiple variables. Another trend in the current genetics is the investigation of the impact of rare variants on the phenotype, where the standard methods often fail owing to lack of power when the minor allele is present in only a limited number of individuals. RESULTS: We propose a new statistical approach based on Bayesian reduced rank regression to assess the impact of multiple SNPs on a high-dimensional phenotype. Because of the method's ability to combine information over multiple SNPs and phenotypes, it is particularly suitable for detecting associations involving rare variants. We demonstrate the potential of our method and compare it with alternatives using the Northern Finland Birth Cohort with 4702 individuals, for whom genome-wide SNP data along with lipoprotein profiles comprising 74 traits are available. We discovered two genes (XRCC4 and MTHFD2L) without previously reported associations, which replicated in a combined analysis of two additional cohorts: 2390 individuals from the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study and 3659 individuals from the FINRISK study. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: R-code freely available for download at http://users.ics.aalto.fi/pemartti/gene_metabolome/.

Cryptic ecology among host generalist Campylobacter jejuni in domestic animals.

Homologous recombination between bacterial strains is theoretically capable of preventing the separation of daughter clusters, and producing cohesive clouds of genotypes in sequence space. However, numerous barriers to recombination are known. Barriers may be essential such as adaptive incompatibility, or ecological, which is associated with the opportunities for recombination in the natural habitat. Campylobacter jejuni is a gut colonizer of numerous animal species and a major human enteric pathogen. We demonstrate that the two major generalist lineages of C. jejuni do not show evidence of recombination with each other in nature, despite having a high degree of host niche overlap and recombining extensively with specialist lineages. However, transformation experiments show that the generalist lineages readily recombine with one another in vitro. This suggests ecological rather than essential barriers to recombination, caused by a cryptic niche structure within the hosts.

Plant sterol feeding induces tumor formation and alters sterol metabolism in the intestine of Apc(Min) mice.

Dietary plant sterols reduce the absorption of cholesterol and therefore increase intraluminal cholesterol concentration. We examined how plant sterol esters from functional foods affect intestinal tumorigenesis in tumor-prone adenomatous polyposis coli (Apc)(Min) mice. Feeding plant sterols at 0.8% increased the number of intestinal adenomas, and the effect was significant in female mice. The concentration of mucosal free sitosterol increased by eightfold in plant sterol males and by threefold in plant sterol females when compared with respective controls. The concentration of mucosal free cholesterol was significantly lower in plant sterol males than in control males, and the decrease in free cholesterol was accompanied with a significant increase in nuclear sterol regulatory element binding protein-2. No difference was found in the levels of ß-catenin, cyclin D1, epidermal growth factor receptor, extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2, or caveolin-1 in either gender after plant sterol feeding. Among all measured parameters, higher levels of estrogen receptor ß and free cholesterol in the mucosa were among the strongest predictors of increased intestinal tumorigenesis. In addition, gene expression data showed significant enrichment of up-regulated genes of cell cycle control and cholesterol biosynthesis in plant sterol females. The results indicate that high intake of plant sterols accelerates intestinal tumorigenesis in female Apc (Min)mice; however, the mechanism behind the adverse effect remains to be discovered.