Comparative Analysis of Instrumental Variables on the Assignment of Buprenorphine/Naloxone or Methadone for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Instrumental variable (IV) analysis provides an alternative set of identification assumptions in the presence of uncontrolled confounding when attempting to estimate causal effects. Our objective was to evaluate the suitability of measures of prescriber preference and calendar time as potential IVs to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of buprenorphine/naloxone versus methadone for treatment of opioid use disorder (OUD). METHODS: Using linked population-level health administrative data, we constructed five IVs: prescribing preference at the individual, facility, and region levels (continuous and categorical variables), calendar time, and a binary prescriber's preference IV in analyzing the treatment assignment-treatment discontinuation association using both incident-user and prevalent-new-user designs. Using published guidelines, we assessed and compared each IV according to the four assumptions for IVs, employing both empirical assessment and content expertise. We evaluated the robustness of results using sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The study sample included 35,904 incident users (43.3% on buprenorphine/naloxone) initiated on opioid agonist treatment by 1585 prescribers during the study period. While all candidate IVs were strong (A1) according to conventional criteria, by expert opinion, we found no evidence against assumptions of exclusion (A2), independence (A3), monotonicity (A4a), and homogeneity (A4b) for prescribing preference-based IV. Some criteria were violated for the calendar time-based IV. We determined that preference in provider-level prescribing, measured on a continuous scale, was the most suitable IV for comparative effectiveness of buprenorphine/naloxone and methadone for the treatment of OUD. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that prescriber's preference measures are suitable IVs in comparative effectiveness studies of treatment for OUD.

Gestational exposure to organochlorine compounds and metals and infant birth weight: effect modification by maternal hardships.

BACKGROUND: Gestational exposure to toxic environmental chemicals and maternal social hardships are individually associated with impaired fetal growth, but it is unclear whether the effects of environmental chemical exposure on infant birth weight are modified by maternal hardships. METHODS: We used data from the Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals (MIREC) Study, a pan-Canadian cohort of 1982 pregnant females enrolled between 2008 and 2011. We quantified eleven environmental chemical concentrations from two chemical classes - six organochlorine compounds (OCs) and five metals - that were detected in ≥ 70% of blood samples collected during the first trimester. We examined fetal growth using birth weight adjusted for gestational age and assessed nine maternal hardships by questionnaire. Each maternal hardship variable was dichotomized to indicate whether the females experienced the hardship. In our analysis, we used elastic net to select the environmental chemicals, maternal hardships, and 2-way interactions between maternal hardships and environmental chemicals that were most predictive of birth weight. Next, we obtained effect estimates using multiple linear regression, and plotted the relationships by hardship status for visual interpretation. RESULTS: Elastic net selected trans-nonachlor, lead, low educational status, racially minoritized background, and low supplemental folic acid intake. All were inversely associated with birth weight. Elastic net also selected interaction terms. Among those with increasing environmental chemical exposures and reported hardships, we observed stronger negative associations and a few positive associations. For example, every two-fold increase in lead concentrations was more strongly associated with reduced infant birth weight among participants with low educational status (ß = -100 g (g); 95% confidence interval (CI): -215, 16), than those with higher educational status (ß = -34 g; 95% CI: -63, -3). In contrast, every two-fold increase in mercury concentrations was associated with slightly higher birth weight among participants with low educational status (ß = 23 g; 95% CI: -25, 71) compared to those with higher educational status (ß = -9 g; 95% CI: -24, 6). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that maternal hardships can modify the associations of gestational exposure to some OCs and metals with infant birth weight.

Using Latent Profile Analysis to Identify Associations Between Gestational Chemical Mixtures and Child Neurodevelopment.

BACKGROUND: Unsupervised machine learning techniques have become increasingly popular for studying associations between gestational exposure mixtures and human health. Latent profile analysis is one method that has not been fully explored. METHODS: We estimated associations between gestational chemical mixtures and child neurodevelopment using latent profile analysis. Using data from the Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals (MIREC) research platform, a longitudinal cohort of pregnant Canadian women and their children, we generated latent profiles from 27 gestational exposure biomarkers. We then examined the associations between these profiles and child Verbal IQ, Performance IQ, and Full-Scale IQ, measured with the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence, Third Edition (WPPSI-III). We validated our findings using k-means clustering. RESULTS: Latent profile analysis detected five latent profiles of exposure: a reference profile containing 61% of the study participants, a high monoethyl phthalate (MEP) profile with moderately low persistent organic pollutants (POPs) containing 26%, a high POP profile containing 6%, a low POP profile containing 4%, and a smoking chemicals profile containing 3%. We observed negative associations between both the smoking chemicals and high MEP profiles and all IQ scores and between the high POP profile and Full-Scale and Verbal IQ scores. We also found a positive association between the low POP profile and Full-Scale and Performance IQ scores. All associations had wide 95% confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Latent profile analysis is a promising technique for identifying patterns of chemical exposure and is worthy of further study for its use in examining complicated exposure mixtures.

Who benefits most from a prenatal HEPA filter air cleaner intervention on childhood cognitive development? The UGAAR randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution exposure during pregnancy affects children's brain function. Maternal stress and nutrition, socioeconomic status, and the child's sex may modify this relationship. OBJECTIVE: To identify characteristics of children with the largest increases in full-scale IQ (FSIQ) after their mothers used HEPA filter air cleaners during pregnancy. METHODS: In this randomized controlled trial we randomly assigned women to receive 1-2 air cleaners or no air cleaners during pregnancy. We analyzed maternal hair samples for cortisol and dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA). When the children were 48 months old, we measured FSIQ with the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence. We evaluated ten potential modifiers of the intervention-FSIQ relationship using interaction terms in separate regression models. To account for correlations between modifiers, we also used a single regression model containing main effects and intervention x modifier terms for all potential modifiers. RESULTS: Among 242 mother-child dyads with complete data, the intervention was associated with a 2.3-point increase (95% CI: -1.5, 6.0 points) in mean FSIQ. The intervention improved mean FSIQ among children of mothers in the bottom (5.4 points; 95% CI: -0.8, 11.5) and top (6.1 points; 95% CI: 0.5, 11.8) cortisol tertiles, but not among those whose mothers were in the middle tertile. The largest between-group difference in the intervention's effect was a 7.5-point (95% CI: -0.7, 15.7) larger increase in mean FSIQ among children whose mothers did not take vitamins than among children whose mothers did take vitamins (interaction p-value = 0.07). We also observed larger benefits among children whose mothers did not complete university, and those with lower hair DHEA concentrations, hair cortisol concentrations outside the middle tertile, or more perceived stress. CONCLUSION: The benefits of reducing air pollution during pregnancy on brain development may be greatest for children whose mothers who do not take vitamins, experience more stress, or have less education.

Association Between Gestational Exposure to Toxicants and Autistic Behaviors Using Bayesian Quantile Regression.

Autism spectrum disorder, which is characterized by impaired social communication and stereotypic behaviors, affects 1%-2% of children. Although prenatal exposure to toxicants has been associated with autistic behaviors, most studies have been focused on shifts in mean behavior scores. We used Bayesian quantile regression to assess the associations between log2-transformed toxicant concentrations and autistic behaviors across the distribution of behaviors. We used data from the Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals study, a pan-Canadian cohort (2008-2011). We measured metal, pesticide, polychlorinated biphenyl, phthalate, bisphenol-A, and triclosan concentrations in blood or urine samples collected during the first trimester of pregnancy. Using the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS), in which higher scores denote more autistic-like behaviors, autistic behaviors were assessed in 478 children aged 3-4 years old. Lead, cadmium, and most phthalate metabolites were associated with mild increases in SRS scores at the 90th percentile of the SRS distribution. Manganese and some pesticides were associated with mild decreases in SRS scores at the 90th percentile of the SRS distribution. We identified several monotonic trends in which associations increased in magnitude from the bottom to the top of the SRS distribution. These results suggest that quantile regression can reveal nuanced relationships and, thus, should be more widely used by epidemiologists.

Chemical mixture exposures during pregnancy and cognitive abilities in school-aged children.

INTRODUCTION: Gestational exposure to chemical mixtures, which is prevalent among pregnant women, may be associated with adverse childhood neurodevelopment. However, few studies have examined relations between gestational chemical mixture exposure and children's cognitive abilities. METHODS: In a cohort of 253 pregnant women and their children from Cincinnati, OH (enrolled 2003-2006), we quantified biomarker concentrations of 43 metals, phthalates, phenols, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, organophosphate and organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, perfluoroalkyl substances, and environmental tobacco smoke in blood or urine. Using k-means clustering and principal component (PC) analysis, we characterized chemical mixtures among pregnant women. We assessed children's cognitive abilities using the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence-III and Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-IV at ages 5 and 8 years, respectively. We estimated covariate-adjusted differences in children's cognitive ability scores ]=cross clusters, and with increasing PC scores and individual biomarker concentrations. RESULTS: Geometric mean biomarker concentrations were generally highest, intermediate, and lowest among women in clusters 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Children born to women in clusters 1 and 2 had 5.1 (95% CI: 9.4,-0.8) and 2.0 (95% CI: 5.5, 1,4) lower performance IQ scores compared to children in cluster 3, respectively. PC scores and individual chemical biomarker concentrations were not associated with cognitive abilities. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, combined prenatal exposure to phenols, certain phthalates, pesticides, and perfluoroalkyl substances was inversely associated with children's cognition, but some individual chemical biomarker concentrations were not. Additional studies should determine if the aggregate impact of these chemicals on cognition is different from their individual effects.

Prenatal exposure to endocrine disrupting chemical mixtures and infant birth weight: A Bayesian analysis using kernel machine regression.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women are regularly exposed to a multitude of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). EDC exposures, both individually and as mixtures, may affect fetal growth. The relationship of EDC mixtures with infant birth weight, however, remains poorly understood. We examined the relations between prenatal exposure to EDC mixtures and infant birth weight. METHODS: We used data from the Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals (MIREC) Study, a pan-Canadian cohort of 1857 pregnant women enrolled between 2008 and 2011. We quantified twenty-one chemical concentrations from five EDC classes, including organochlorine compounds (OCs), metals, perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), phenols and phthalate metabolites that were detected in >70% of urine or blood samples collected during the first trimester. In our primary analysis, we used Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) models to assess variable importance, explore EDC mixture effects, and identify any interactions among EDCs. Our secondary analysis used traditional linear regression to compare the results with those of BKMR and to quantify the changes in mean birth weight in relation to prenatal EDC exposures. RESULTS: We found evidence that mixtures of OCs and metals were associated with monotonic decreases in mean birth weight across the whole range of exposure. trans-Nonachlor from the OC mixture and lead (Pb) from the metal mixture had the greatest impact on birth weight. Our linear regression analysis corroborated the BKMR results and found that a 2-fold increase in trans-nonachlor and Pb concentrations reduced mean birth weight by -38 g (95% confidence interval (CI): -67, -10) and -39 g (95% CI: -69, -9), respectively. A sex-specific association for OC mixture was observed among female infants. PFAS, phenols and phthalates were not associated with birth weight. No interactions were observed among the EDCs. CONCLUSIONS: Using BKMR, we observed that both OC and metal mixtures were associated with decreased birth weight in the MIREC Study. trans-Nonachlor from the OC mixture and Pb from the metal mixture contributed most to the adverse effects.

Portable HEPA filter air cleaner use during pregnancy and children's behavior problem scores: a secondary analysis of the UGAAR randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Developmental exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution may impair children's behaviors. Our objectives were to quantify the impact of reducing indoor PM using portable HEPA filter air cleaners during pregnancy on behavioral problems in children and to assess associations between indoor fine PM (PM2.5) concentrations during pregnancy and children's behavior. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a single-blind parallel-group randomized controlled trial in which we randomly assigned 540 non-smoking pregnant women to receive 1 or 2 HEPA filter air cleaners or no air cleaners. We administered the Behavior Assessment System for Children (BASC-3) to caregivers when children were a mean age of 23 months, and again at a mean age of 48 months. Primary outcomes were the four BASC-3 composite scales: externalizing problems, internalizing problems, adaptive skills, and the behavioral symptoms index. We imputed missing data using multiple imputation with chained equations. The primary analysis was by intention-to-treat. In a secondary analysis, we evaluated associations between BASC-3 composite indices and modeled trimester-specific PM2.5 concentrations inside residences. RESULTS: We enrolled participants at a median of 11 weeks gestation. After excluding miscarriages, still births and neonatal deaths, our analysis included 478 children (233 control and 245 intervention). We observed no differences in the mean BASC-3 scores between treatment groups. An interquartile increase (20.1 µg/m3) in first trimester PM2.5 concentration was associated with higher externalizing problem scores (2.4 units, 95% CI: 0.7, 4.1), higher internalizing problem scores (2.4 units, 95% CI: 0.7, 4.0), lower adaptive skills scores (-1.5 units, 95% CI: -3.0, 0.0), and higher behavior symptoms index scores (2.3 units, 95% CI: 0.7, 3.9). Third trimester PM2.5 concentrations were also associated with some behavioral indices at age 4, but effect estimates were smaller. No significant associations were observed with PM2.5 concentrations during the second trimester or for any of the BASC indices when children were 2 years old. CONCLUSION: We found no benefit of reducing indoor particulate air pollution during pregnancy on parent-reported behaviors in children. Associations between indoor PM2.5 concentrations in the first trimester and behavioral scores among 4-year old children suggest that it may be necessary to intervene early in pregnancy to protect children, but these exploratory findings should be interpreted cautiously. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01741051.

Association of use of cleaning products with respiratory health in a Canadian birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive longitudinal studies are important for understanding the complex risk factors, pathways, exposures and interactions that lead to the development and persistence of asthma. We aimed to examine associations between use of household cleaning products in early life and childhood respiratory and allergic disease using data from the Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development (CHILD) Cohort Study. METHODS: We summed responses from parental questionnaires that indicated the frequency of use of 26 household cleaning products in the homes of 2022 children from this birth cohort when they were 3-4 months of age to create a cumulative Frequency of Use Score (FUS). We used multivariable logistic regression models to assess whether frequent compared with less frequent use was associated with recurrent wheeze, atopy or asthma diagnosis, as defined by the questionnaire and clinical assessments at age 3 years. Data were collected between 2008 and 2015. RESULTS: Children in homes with a higher frequency of use of cleaning products in infancy, as determined by an interquartile range increase, had higher odds of recurrent wheeze (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.64), recurrent wheeze with atopy (adjusted OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.02-2.16) and asthma diagnosis (adjusted OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.09-1.70), but no increase in the odds of atopy at age 3 years (adjusted OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.96-1.35). Compared with the lowest tertile of FUS exposure, infants in the highest tertile had higher odds of acquiring asthma. Stratification of the results showed that females had higher ORs than males for all outcomes, although the p values for this sex difference did not reach statistical significance. INTERPRETATION: Frequent use of household cleaning products in early life was associated with an increased risk for childhood wheeze and asthma but not atopy at age 3 years. Our findings add to the understanding of how early life exposures to cleaning products may be associated with the development of allergic airway disease and help to identify household behaviours as a potential area for intervention.

Disease-specific incident glomerulonephritis displays geographic clustering in under-serviced rural areas of British Columbia, Canada.

There is little known about geographic variability in the incidence of glomerular disease and its potential implications for care delivery. To evaluate this, we performed a population-level cohort study using a provincial renal pathology database (2000-2012) to capture all incident cases of glomerulonephritis in British Columbia, Canada. This included 401 patients with membranous nephropathy (MN), 824 patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN), 385 patients with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), 397 patients with lupus nephritis (LN) and 399 patients with ANCA-related glomerulonephritis (ANCA-GN). Geographic clusters were identified using Bayesian spatial models to estimate the incidence of each disease in 74 regions compared to the mean incidence in the entire province (incidence rate ratio, [IRR]), adjusted for region-level age, sex and race. The proportion of overall variability in incidence attributed to inter-regional differences varied by disease: 18% in MN, 81% in IgAN, 18% in FSGS, 59% in ANCA-GN, and 89% in LN. Except for LN, clustering was not explained by demographics. All IgAN and LN clusters were in urban regions close to nephrology centers, whereas ANCA-GN, MN and FSGS clustered mainly in rural regions. All ANCA-GN clusters were rural with median population density 1.2 persons/km2 and driving distances of 10-676 km to the nearest nephrology center. Thus, we found significant geographic clustering in the incidence of different glomerular diseases. MN, FSGS and ANCA-GN clustered in sparsely populated regions with limited access to care, underscoring the importance of regional variability in glomerular diseases to inform health services delivery.

Factors associated with delayed and late ART initiation among people living with HIV in BC: results from the engage study.

We examined correlates of late and delayed initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in British Columbia, Canada. From December 2013 to December 2015 we recruited treatment-naïve people living with HIV who initiated ART within the previous year. 'Late initiation' was defined as CD4 cell count ≤500 cells/µL at ART initiation and 'delayed initiation' as ≥1 year between HIV diagnosis and initiation. Multivariable logistic regression assessed independent correlates of late and delayed initiation. Of 87 participants, 44 (51%) initiated late and 22 (26%) delayed initiation. Delayed initiation was positively associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.06 per year, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.01-1.12) and inversely associated with wanting to start ART at diagnosis (AOR: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.02-0.21). Variables associated with late initiation were older age (AOR: 1.09 per year, 95% CI: 1.03-1.15) and medical reason(s) for initiation (AOR: 5.00, 95% CI: 1.41-17.86). Late initiation was less likely among those with greater perceived ART efficacy (AOR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.90-0.98) and history of incarceration (AOR: 0.12, 95% CI: 0.03-0.56). Disparities in timing of initiation were observed for age, perceived ART efficacy, and history of incarceration. Enhanced health services that address these factors may facilitate earlier treatment initiation.

Coal smoke, gestational cadmium exposure, and fetal growth.

BACKGROUND: Gestational cadmium exposure may impair fetal growth. Coal smoke has largely been unexplored as a source of cadmium exposure. We investigated the relationship between gestational cadmium exposure and fetal growth, and assessed coal smoke as a potential source of airborne cadmium, among non-smoking pregnant women in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, where coal combustion in home heating stoves is a major source of outdoor and indoor air pollution. METHODS: This observational study was nested within the Ulaanbaatar Gestation and Air Pollution Research (UGAAR) study, a randomized controlled trial of portable high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter air cleaner use during pregnancy, fetal growth, and early childhood development. We measured third trimester blood cadmium concentrations in 374 out of 465 participants who had a live birth. We used multiple linear and logistic regression to assess the relationships between log2-transformed maternal blood cadmium concentrations and birth weight, length, head circumference, ponderal index, low birth weight, small for gestational age, and preterm birth in crude and adjusted models. We also evaluated the relationships between log2-transformed blood cadmium concentrations and the density of coal-burning stoves within 5000 m of each participant's apartment as a proxy of coal smoke emissions from home heating stoves. RESULTS: The median (25th,75th percentile) blood cadmium concentration was 0.20 (0.15, 0.29) µg/L. A doubling of blood cadmium was associated with a 95 g (95% CI: 34, 155 g) reduction in birth weight in adjusted models. An interquartile range increase in coal stove density (from 3.4 to 4.9 gers/hectare) surrounding participants' apartments was associated with a 12.2% (95% CI: 0.3, 25.6%) increase in blood cadmium concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Gestational cadmium exposure was associated with reduced birth weight. In settings where coal is a widely used fuel, cadmium may play a role in the putative association between air pollution and impaired fetal growth.

Very low-level prenatal mercury exposure and behaviors in children: the HOME Study.

BACKGROUND: Mercury is toxic to the developing brain, but the lowest concentration associated with the development of behavior problems is unclear. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between very low-level mercury exposure during fetal development and behavior problems in children. METHODS: We used data from 389 mothers and children in a prospective pregnancy and birth cohort study. We defined mean prenatal mercury concentration as the mean of total whole blood mercury concentrations in maternal samples collected at 16- and 26-weeks of gestation, delivery, and neonatal cord blood samples. We assessed parent-reported child behavior up to five times from two to 8 years of age using the Behavioral Assessment System for Children (BASC-2). At 8 years of age, we assessed self-reported child anxiety using the Spence Children's Anxiety Scale (SCAS). We used multiple linear mixed models and linear regression models to estimate the association between mean prenatal mercury concentrations and child behavior and anxiety, respectively. RESULTS: The median prenatal total blood mercury concentrations was 0.67 µg/L. Overall, we did not find statistically significant associations between mean prenatal mercury concentrations and behavior problems scores, but a 2-fold increase in mercury concentrations at 16-weeks gestation was associated with 0.83 point (95% CI: 0.05, 1.62) higher BASC-2 anxiety scores. Maternal and cord blood mercury concentrations at delivery were associated with parent-reported anxiety at 8 years. CONCLUSION: We found limited evidence of an association between very-low level prenatal mercury exposure and behaviors in children, with an exception of anxiety.

The British Columbia Healthy Connections Project: findings on socioeconomic disadvantage in early pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Maternal exposure to socioeconomic disadvantage increases the risk of child injuries and subsequent child developmental and mental health problems - particularly for young mothers. To inform early intervention planning, this research therefore aimed to describe the health and social adversities experienced by a cohort of girls and young women in early pregnancy in British Columbia (BC), Canada. METHODS: Participants were recruited for the BC Healthy Connections Project (BCHCP), a randomized controlled trial examining the effectiveness of Nurse-Family Partnership, a home visitation program, in improving child and maternal outcomes. Baseline data were collected from 739 participants on trial entry. Participants were selected on the basis of preparing to parent for the first time and experiencing socioeconomic disadvantage. Analyses involved descriptive statistics and age-group comparisons. RESULTS: Most participants reported having low income (84%), having limited education (52%) and being single (91%) at trial entry. Beyond these eligibility criteria, other health and social adversities included: housing instability (52%); severe anxiety or depression (47%); other diagnosed mental disorders (22%); prenatal nicotine and cannabis use (27 and 21%); physical health problems (20%); child maltreatment when younger (56%); and intimate partner violence recently (50%). As well, few (29%) had received income assistance entitlements. More than two thirds (70%) were experiencing four or more forms of adversity. Age-group differences were observed for cognitive functioning, being single, low income, limited education, psychological distress and service use (p-value ≤0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This cohort was selected on the basis of socioeconomic disadvantage. Yet all participants were experiencing substantial added adversities - at higher rates than other Canadians. Furthermore, despite Canada's public programs, these pregnant girls and young women were not being adequately reached by social services. Our study adds new data to inform early intervention planning, suggesting that unacceptably high levels of socioeconomic disadvantage exist for some young British Columbians. Therefore greater health and social supports and services are warranted for these young mothers and their children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered August 24, 2012 with ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01672060 . Active not recruiting.

Profiles and Predictors of Environmental Chemical Mixture Exposure among Pregnant Women: The Health Outcomes and Measures of the Environment Study.

Pregnant women are exposed to numerous environmental chemicals, but there is limited understanding of chemical mixture exposure profiles and predictors. In a prospective cohort of 389 pregnant women from Cincinnati, OH, we used biomarkers to estimate exposure to 41 phenols, phthalates, metals, organophosphate/pyrethroid/organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, perfluoroalkyl substances, and environmental tobacco smoke. Using pairwise correlations, k-means clustering, and principal component analysis (PCA), we identified several profiles of chemical exposure. Chemicals within structurally, commercially, or industrially related chemical classes (e.g., phthalates) were moderate to strongly correlated compared to unrelated chemicals (e.g., pyrethroid pesticides and environmental tobacco smoke). Using k-means clustering and PCA, we identified 3 clusters of women ( N = 106, 158, and 125) and 6 PC scores, respectively, that characterized profiles of cumulative chemical exposure. The first two PC scores significantly varied by cluster, indicating that some of these profiles could be identified using both methods. Cluster membership and PCA scores were associated with race, marital status, consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables, and parity. Future work could use clusters and PCA scores to characterize environmental chemical mixture exposures in other cohorts of pregnant women and predict potential health effects of environmental chemical mixture exposure.

A comparison of Bayesian and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding.

Bias from unmeasured confounding is a persistent concern in observational studies, and sensitivity analysis has been proposed as a solution. In the recent years, probabilistic sensitivity analysis using either Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis (MCSA) or Bayesian sensitivity analysis (BSA) has emerged as a practical analytic strategy when there are multiple bias parameters inputs. BSA uses Bayes theorem to formally combine evidence from the prior distribution and the data. In contrast, MCSA samples bias parameters directly from the prior distribution. Intuitively, one would think that BSA and MCSA ought to give similar results. Both methods use similar models and the same (prior) probability distributions for the bias parameters. In this paper, we illustrate the surprising finding that BSA and MCSA can give very different results. Specifically, we demonstrate that MCSA can give inaccurate uncertainty assessments (e.g. 95% intervals) that do not reflect the data's influence on uncertainty about unmeasured confounding. Using a data example from epidemiology and simulation studies, we show that certain combinations of data and prior distributions can result in dramatic prior-to-posterior changes in uncertainty about the bias parameters. This occurs because the application of Bayes theorem in a non-identifiable model can sometimes rule out certain patterns of unmeasured confounding that are not compatible with the data. Consequently, the MCSA approach may give 95% intervals that are either too wide or too narrow and that do not have 95% frequentist coverage probability. Based on our findings, we recommend that analysts use BSA for probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Gestational exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals in relation to infant birth weight: a Bayesian analysis of the HOME Study.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women are exposed to a mixture of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Gestational EDC exposures may be associated with changes in fetal growth that elevates the risk for poor health later in life, but few studies have examined the health effects of simultaneous exposure to multiple chemicals. This study aimed to examine the association of gestational exposure to five chemical classes of potential EDCs: phthalates and bisphenol A, perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) with infant birth weight. METHODS: Using data from the Health Outcomes and Measures of Environment (HOME) Study, we examined 272 pregnant women enrolled between 2003-2006. EDC concentrations were quantified in blood and urine samples collected at 16 and 26 weeks gestation. We used Bayesian Hierarchical Linear Models (BHLM) to examine the associations between newborn birth weight and 53 EDCs, 2 organochlorine pesticides (OPPs) and 2 heavy metals. RESULTS: For a 10-fold increase in chemical concentration, the mean differences in birth weights (95% credible intervals (CI)) were 1 g (-20, 23) for phthalates, -11 g (-52, 34) for PFAS, 0.2 g (-9, 10) for PCBs, -4 g (-30, 22) for PBDEs, and 7 g (-25, 40) for OCPs. CONCLUSION: Gestational exposure to phthalates, PFAS, PCBs, PBDEs, OCPs or OPPs had null or small associations with birth weight. Gestational OPP, Pb, and PFAS exposures were most strongly associated with lower birth weight.

Improving children's health and development in British Columbia through nurse home visiting: a randomized controlled trial protocol.

BACKGROUND: Nurse-Family Partnership is a nurse home visitation program that aims to improve the lives of young mothers and their children. The program focuses on women who are parenting for the first time and experiencing socioeconomic disadvantage. Nurse visits start as early in pregnancy as possible and continue until the child reaches age two years. The program has proven effective in the United States - improving children's mental health and development and maternal wellbeing, and showing long-term cost-effectiveness. But it is not known whether the same benefits will be obtained in Canada, where public services differ. The British Columbia Healthy Connections Project therefore involves a randomized controlled trial evaluating Nurse-Family Partnership's effectiveness compared with existing (usual) services in improving children's mental health and early development and mother's life circumstances. The trial's main aims are to: reduce childhood injuries by age two years (primary outcome indicator); reduce prenatal nicotine and alcohol use; improve child cognitive and language development and behaviour at age two years; and reduce subsequent pregnancies by 24 months postpartum. Potential explanatory factors such as maternal mental health (including self-efficacy) are also being assessed, as is the program's impact on exposure to intimate-partner violence. To inform future economic evaluation, data are also being collected on health and social service access and use. METHODS/DESIGN: Eligible and consenting participants (N = 1040) are being recruited prior to 28 weeks gestation then individually randomized to receive existing services (comparison group) or Nurse-Family Partnership plus existing services (intervention group). Nurse-Family Partnership is being delivered following fidelity guidelines. Data are being collected during in person and telephone interviews at: baseline; 34-36 weeks gestation; and two, 10, 18 and 24 months postpartum. Additional data will be obtained via linkages from provincial datasets. Recruitment commenced in October 2013 and will continue for approximately three years. DISCUSSION: This trial will provide important information about the generalizability of Nurse-Family Partnership to the Canadian context. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and shared with policymakers and practitioners through extensive public health collaborations already underway. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered July 18, 2013 with ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01672060 .

Factors associated with disclosure of HIV status among a cohort of individuals on antiretroviral therapy in British Columbia, Canada.

We sought to examine the prevalence and correlates of HIV-disclosure among treatment-experienced individuals in British Columbia, Canada. Study participants completed an interviewer-administered survey between July 2007 and January 2010. The primary outcome of interest was disclosing one's HIV-positive status to all new sexual partners within the last 6 months. An exploratory logistic regression model was developed to identify variables independently associated with disclosure. Of the 657 participants included in this analysis, 73.4 % disclosed their HIV-positive status to all of their sexual partners. Factors independently associated with non-disclosure included identifying as a woman (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.92; 95 % confidence interval [95 % CI] 1.13-3.27) or as a gay or bisexual man (AOR 2.45; 95 % CI 1.47-4.10). Behaviours that were independently associated with non-disclosure were having sex with a stranger (AOR 2.74; 95 % CI 1.46-5.17), not being on treatment at the time of interview (AOR 2.67; 95 % CI 1.40-5.11), and not always using a condom (AOR 1.78; 95 % CI 1.09-2.90). Future preventative strategies should focus on environmental and social factors that may inhibit vulnerable HIV-positive populations, such as women and gay or bisexual men, from safely disclosing their positive status.