When Space and Time Matter in Environmental Injustice: A Bayesian Analysis of the Association between Socio-economic Disadvantage and Air Pollution in Greater Mexico City.

Environmental injustice refers to the unequal burden of pollutants on groups with lower socioeconomic status. An increasing number of studies have identified associations between high levels of pollution and socioeconomic disadvantage. However, few studies have controlled adequately for spatio-temporal variations in pollution. This study uses a Bayesian approach to explore the association between socioeconomic disadvantage and pollution in Mexico City Metropolitan Area. We quantify the association of socioeconomic disadvantage with PM10 and ozone and evaluate the impact of accounting for spatio-temporal structure of the pollution data. We find a significant positive association between socio-economic disadvantage and pollution for levels of PM10, but not ozone. The inclusion of the spatio-temporal element in the modeling results in improved weaker estimates of this association but this does not alter results substantially. These findings confirm the robustness of previous studies that found signs of environmental injustice where spatio-temporal variations have not been explicitly considered, confirming that targeted policies to reduce pollution in socio-economically disadvantaged areas are required.

Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India.

Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security. In this paper, we focus on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and we employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level (~ 18 × 18 km cell resolution) under projected future (2050) climate change (IPCC RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, using three GCMs: BCC-CSM1.1, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and HadGEM2-ES). We quantify the occurrence of rice (whether or not rainfed rice is commonly grown, using CEMs) and rice extent (area under cultivation, using BRTs) during the summer monsoon in relation to four climate variables that affect rice growth and yield namely ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration (PER), maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin ), and total rainfall during harvesting. Our models described the occurrence and extent of rice very well (CEMs for occurrence, ensemble AUC = 0.92; BRTs for extent, Pearson's r = 0.87). PER was the most important predictor of rainfed rice occurrence, and it was positively related to rainfed rice area, but all four climate variables were important for determining the extent of rice cultivation. Our models project that 15%-40% of current rainfed rice growing areas will be at risk (i.e. decline in climate suitability or become completely unsuitable). However, our models project considerable variation across India in the impact of future climate change: eastern and northern India are the locations most at risk, but parts of central and western India may benefit from increased precipitation. Hence our CEM and BRT models agree on the locations most at risk, but there is less consensus about the degree of risk at these locations. Our results help to identify locations where livelihoods of low-income farmers and regional food security may be threatened in the next few decades by climate changes. The use of more drought-resilient rice varieties and better irrigation infrastructure in these regions may help to reduce these impacts and reduce the vulnerability of farmers dependent on rainfed cropping.

A critical re-evaluation of controls on spatial and seasonal variations in nitrate concentrations in river waters throughout the River Derwent catchment in North Yorkshire, UK.

Since mean nitrate concentration along single river channels increases significantly with percent arable land use upstream of sampling points and autumn/early winter flushes in nitrate concentration are widespread, it is generally concluded that farmers contribute most of the nitrate. For the River Derwent in North Yorkshire, the correlation between nitrate concentration and percent arable land use is much poorer when tributary data are included in the equation, because of greater variations in dilution by water draining upland areas and in other N input sources. For the whole river system therefore, percent upland moorland/rough grazing land cover is an appreciably better predictor than percent arable land use for nitrate concentration. Upland land use encompasses the higher precipitation and runoff in such areas, and the subsequent greater dilution downstream of both arable land runoff and effluent from treatment works, as well as an inverse correlation to percent arable land use. This is strongly supported by the observation that, for the Derwent, Meteorological Office rainfall data alone proved even better than percent moorland rough grazing for predicting nitrate concentration. The dilution effect is therefore substantial but highly seasonal; lower runoff and dilution in summer offset the lower leaching losses from arable land, and higher dilution and runoff in winter offset greater nitrate leaching losses from arable soils. Because of this, coupled to improved efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer use, seasonality trends in nitrate concentrations that were pronounced a decade ago now have all but disappeared in the catchment.

Is the posterior cruciate ligament necessary for medial pivot knee prostheses with regard to postoperative kinematics?

PURPOSE: Excellent clinical and kinematical performance is commonly reported after medial pivot knee arthroplasty. However, there is conflicting evidence as to whether the posterior cruciate ligament should be retained. This study simulated how the posterior cruciate ligament, post-cam mechanism and medial tibial insert morphology may affect postoperative kinematics. METHODS: After the computational intact knee model was validated according to the motion of a normal knee, four TKA models were built based on a medial pivot prosthesis; PS type, modified PS type, CR type with PCL retained and CR type with PCL sacrificed. Anteroposterior translation and axial rotation of femoral condyles on the tibia during 0°-135° knee flexion were analyzed. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in kinematics between the intact knee model and reported data for a normal knee. In all TKA models, normal motion was almost fully restored, except for the CR type with PCL sacrificed. Sacrificing the PCL produced paradoxical anterior femoral translation and tibial external rotation during full flexion. CONCLUSION: Either the posterior cruciate ligament or post-cam mechanism is necessary for medial pivot prostheses to regain normal kinematics after total knee arthroplasty. The morphology of medial tibial insert was also shown to produce a small but noticeable effect on knee kinematics. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: V.

Biomechanical considerations in the design of high-flexion total knee replacements.

Typically, joint arthroplasty is performed to relieve pain and improve functionality in a diseased or damaged joint. Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) involves replacing the entire knee joint, both femoral and tibial surfaces, with anatomically shaped artificial components in the hope of regaining normal joint function and permitting a full range of knee flexion. In spite of the design of the prosthesis itself, the degree of flexion attainable following TKA depends on a variety of factors, such as the joint's preoperative condition/flexion, muscle strength, and surgical technique. High-flexion knee prostheses have been developed to accommodate movements that require greater flexion than typically achievable with conventional TKA; such high flexion is especially prevalent in Asian cultures. Recently, computational techniques have been widely used for evaluating the functionality of knee prostheses and for improving biomechanical performance. To offer a better understanding of the development and evaluation techniques currently available, this paper aims to review some of the latest trends in the simulation of high-flexion knee prostheses.

Implications of zero-deforestation palm oil for tropical grassy and dry forest biodiversity.

Many companies have made zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs) to reduce carbon emissions and biodiversity losses linked to tropical commodities. However, ZDCs conserve areas primarily based on tree cover and aboveground carbon, potentially leading to the unintended consequence that agricultural expansion could be encouraged in biomes outside tropical rainforest, which also support important biodiversity. We examine locations suitable for zero-deforestation expansion of commercial oil palm, which is increasingly expanding outside the tropical rainforest biome, by generating empirical models of global suitability for rainfed and irrigated oil palm. We find that tropical grassy and dry forest biomes contain >50% of the total area of land climatically suitable for rainfed oil palm expansion in compliance with ZDCs (following the High Carbon Stock Approach; in locations outside urban areas and cropland), and that irrigation could double the area suitable for expansion in these biomes. Within these biomes, ZDCs fail to protect areas of high vertebrate richness from oil palm expansion. To prevent unintended consequences of ZDCs and minimize the environmental impacts of oil palm expansion, policies and governance for sustainable development and conservation must expand focus from rainforests to all tropical biomes.

Morphometrical measurement of resected surface of medial and lateral proximal tibia for Chinese population.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to analyze the morphology of the medial tibial plateau and lateral tibial plateau in Chinese knees and compared these measurements and features with those of commercial unicondylar tibial baseplates. METHODS: Three-dimensional knee models were reconstructed from computed tomography slices of 81 subjects. Among the series, 27 knees were from male subjects and 54 knees from female subjects. The dimensions and shape of the medial and lateral tibial plateaus were measured and compared with six commercially available unicondylar tibial baseplates. RESULTS: The results showed significant differences between the shapes of the medial and lateral tibial plateaus. For the lateral tibial plateau, the shape was symmetric about the mediolateral axis. The medial plateaus presented their widest mediolateral width in an obviously more posterior position than the lateral compartment. Additionally, the plateau aspect ratio decreased with increasing mediolateral dimensions, in contrast to the constant aspect ratio shown by conventional unicondylar knee prostheses. CONCLUSION: Compartment-specific designs may optimize coverage between the prosthesis and resected tibial surface. The morphometrical measurements presented may allow manufacturers to design tibial baseplates that accommodate the structural variability between different ethnic groups. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prospective comparative study, Level II.

Depth and habitat are important drivers of abundance for predatory reef fish off Pemba Island, Tanzania.

Coral reefs across the world face significant threats from fishing and climate change, which tends to be most acute in shallower waters. This is the case off Pemba Island, Tanzania, yet the effects of these anthropogenic stressors on the distribution and abundance of economically and ecologically important predatory reef fish, including how they vary with depth and habitat type, is poorly understood. Thus, we deployed 79 baited remote underwater videos (BRUVs) in variable water depths and habitats off Pemba Island, and modeled the effects of depth and habitat on abundance of predatory reef fish. Predatory reef fish types/taxa were significantly predicted by depth and habitat types. Habitats in relatively deeper waters and dominated by hard and soft corals hosted high species richness and abundance of predatory reef fish types/taxa compared to mixed sandy and rubble habitats. The findings add to the growing evidence that deep waters around coral reefs are important habitats for predatory reef fish. Thus, careful management, through effective area and species protection measures, is needed to prevent further depletion of predatory reef-associated fish populations and to conserve this biologically important area.

Testing the benefits of conservation set-asides for improved habitat connectivity in tropical agricultural landscapes.

Habitat connectivity is important for tropical biodiversity conservation. Expansion of commodity crops, such as oil palm, fragments natural habitat areas, and strategies are needed to improve habitat connectivity in agricultural landscapes. The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) voluntary certification system requires that growers identify and conserve forest patches identified as High Conservation Value Areas (HCVAs) before oil palm plantations can be certified as sustainable. We assessed the potential benefits of these conservation set-asides for forest connectivity.We mapped HCVAs and quantified their forest cover in 2015. To assess their contribution to forest connectivity, we modelled range expansion of forest-dependent populations with five dispersal abilities spanning those representative of poor dispersers (e.g. flightless insects) to more mobile species (e.g. large birds or bats) across 70 plantation landscapes in Borneo.Because only 21% of HCVA area was forested in 2015, these conservation set-asides currently provide few connectivity benefits. Compared to a scenario where HCVAs contain no forest (i.e. a no-RSPO scenario), current HCVAs improved connectivity by ~3% across all dispersal abilities. However, if HCVAs were fully reforested, then overall landscape connectivity could improve by ~16%. Reforestation of HCVAs had the greatest benefit for poor to intermediate dispersers (0.5-3 km per generation), generating landscapes that were up to 2.7 times better connected than landscapes without HCVAs. By contrast, connectivity benefits of HCVAs were low for highly mobile populations under current and reforestation scenarios, because range expansion of these populations was generally successful regardless of the amount of forest cover. Synthesis and applications. The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) requires that High Conservation Value Areas (HCVAs) be set aside to conserve biodiversity, but HCVAs currently provide few connectivity benefits because they contain relatively little forest. However, reforested HCVAs have the potential to improve landscape connectivity for some forest species (e.g. winged insects), and we recommend active management by plantation companies to improve forest quality of degraded HCVAs (e.g. by enrichment planting). Future revisions to the RSPO's Principles and Criteria should also ensure that large (i.e. with a core area >2 km2) HCVAs are reconnected to continuous tracts of forest to maximize their connectivity benefits.

Does bathymetry drive coastal whale shark (Rhincodon typus) aggregations?

BACKGROUND: The whale shark (Rhincodon typus) is known to aggregate in a number of coastal locations globally, however what causes these aggregations to form where they do is largely unknown. This study examines whether bathymetry is an important driver of coastal aggregation locations for R. typus through bathymetry's effect on primary productivity and prey availability. This is a global study taking into account all coastal areas within R. typus' range. METHODS: R. typus aggregation locations were identified through an extensive literature review. Global bathymetric data were compared at R. typus aggregation locations and a large random selection of non-aggregation areas. Generalised linear models were used to assess which bathymetric characteristic had the biggest influence on aggregation presence. RESULTS: Aggregation sites were significantly shallower than non-aggregation sites and in closer proximity to deep water (the mesopelagic zone) by two orders of magnitude. Slope at aggregation sites was significantly steeper than non-aggregation sites. These three bathymetric variables were shown to have the biggest association with aggregation sites, with up to 88% of deviation explained by the GLMs. DISCUSSION: The three key bathymetric characteristics similar at the aggregation sites are known to induce upwelling events, increase primary productivity and consequently attract numerous other filter feeding species. The location of aggregation sites in these key areas can be attributed to this increased prey availability, thought to be the main reason R. typus aggregations occur, extensively outlined in the literature. The proximity of aggregations to shallow areas such as reefs could also be an important factor why whale sharks thermoregulate after deep dives to feed. These findings increase our understanding of whale shark behaviour and may help guide the identification and conservation of further aggregation sites.

A national level assessment of metal contamination in bats.

Many populations of bat species across the globe are declining, with chemical contamination one of many potential stressors implicated in these demographic changes. Metals still contaminate a wide range of habitats, but the risks to bats remain poorly understood. This study is the first to present a national scale assessment of toxic metal (Cd, Pb) and essential trace metal (Cu, Zn) concentrations in bats. Metal concentrations in tissues (kidneys, liver, stomach -stomach content, bones and fur) were measured in 193 Pipistrellus sp. in England and Wales using ICP-MS, and compared to critical toxic concentrations for small mammals. The concentrations of metals determined in bat tissues were generally lower than those reported elsewhere. Strong positive associations were found between concentrations in tissues for a given metal (liver and kidneys for Cd, Cu and Pb; stomach and fur and fur and bones for Pb), suggesting recent as well as long term exposure to these contaminants. In addition, positive correlations between concentrations of different metals in the same tissues (Cd and Zn, Cu and Zn, Cd and Pb, Pb and Zn) suggest a co-exposure of metals to bats. Approximately 21% of the bats sampled contained residues of at least one metal at concentrations high enough to elicit toxic effects (associated with kidney damage), or to be above the upper level measured in other mammal species. Pb was found to pose the greatest risk (with 7-11% of the bats containing concentrations of toxicological concern), followed by Cu (4-9%), Zn (0.5-5.2%) and Cd (0%). Our data suggest that leaching of metals into our storage matrix, formaldehyde, may have occurred, especially for Cu. The overall findings suggest that metal contamination is an environmental stressor affecting bat populations, and that further research is needed into the direct links between metal contamination and bat population declines worldwide.

Fur: A non-invasive approach to monitor metal exposure in bats.

This paper presents a novel assessment of the use of fur as a non-invasive proxy to biomonitor metal contamination in insectivorous bats. Concentrations of metals (cadmium, copper, lead and zinc) were measured using ICP-MS in tissues (kidneys, liver, stomach and stomach content, bones and fur) obtained from 193 Pipistrellus pipistrellus/pygmaeus bats. The bats were collected across a gradient of metal pollution in England and Wales. The utility of small samples of fur as an indicator of metal exposure from the environment was demonstrated with strong relationships obtained between the concentrations of non-essential metals in fur with concentrations in stomach content, kidneys, liver and bones. Stronger relationships were observed for non-essential metals than for essential metals. Fur analyses might therefore be a useful non-invasive proxy for understanding recent, as well as long term and chronic, metal exposure of live animals. The use of fur may provide valuable information on the level of endogenous metal exposure and contamination of bat populations and communities.

Interspecies variation in the risks of metals to bats.

A modeling framework was used to assess the risk of four metals to UK bat species. Eight species of bats were predicted to be "at risk" from one or more of the metals in over 5% of their ranges. Species differed significantly in their predicted risk. Contamination by Pb was found to pose the greatest risk, followed by Cu, Cd and Zn. A sensitivity analysis identified the proportion of invertebrates ingested as most important in determining the risk. We then compared the model predictions with a large dataset of metals concentrations in the tissues (liver, kidney) of Pipistrellus sp. from across England and Wales. Bats found in areas predicted to be the most "at risk" contained higher metal concentrations in their tissues than those found in areas predicted "not at risk" by the model. Our spatially explicit modeling framework provides a useful tool for further environmental risk assessment studies for wildlife species.

The effect of different humeral prosthesis fin designs on shoulder stability: a computational model.

Humeral prostheses commonly use a fin structure as an attachment point for the supraspinatus muscle in total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA), but these fins may cause injury to the muscle during implantation, inadvertently influencing stability. In order to prevent supraspinatus injury, the effect of different humeral prostheses on shoulder joint stability needs to be investigated. A commercially available prosthesis and two modified humeral prostheses that substituted the fin structure for 2 (2H) or 3 holes (3H) were evaluated using computational models. Glenohumeral abduction was simulated and the superioinferior/anterioposterior stability of the shoulder joint after TSA was calculated. The results revealed that the 2H design had better superioinferior stability than the other prostheses, but was still less stable than the intact shoulder. There were no obvious differences in anterioposterior stability, but the motion patterns were clearly distinguishable from the intact shoulder model. In conclusion, the 2H design showed better superioinferior stability than the 3H design and the commercial product during glenohumeral joint abduction; the three prostheses show similar results in anterioposterior stability. However, the stability of each tested prosthesis was not comparable to the intact shoulder. Therefore, as a compromise, the 2H design should be considered for TSA because of its superior stability.

Does plant uptake or low soil mineral-N production limit mineral-N losses to surface waters and groundwater from soils under grass in summer?

Summer minima and autumn/winter maxima in nitrate concentrations in rivers are reputedly due to high plant uptake of nitrate from soils in summer. A novel alternative hypothesis is tested here for soils under grass. By summer, residual readily mineralizable plant litter from the previous autumn/winter is negligible and fresh litter input low. Consequently little mineral-N is produced in the soil. Water-soluble and KCl-extractable mineral N in fresh soils and soils incubated outdoors for 7 days have been monitored over 12 months for soil transects at two permanent grassland sites near York, UK, using 6 replicates throughout. Vegetation-free soil is shown to produce very limited mineral-N in summer, despite the warm, moist conditions. Litter accumulates in autumn/winter and initially its high C:N ratio favours N accumulation in the soil. It is also shown that mineral-N generated monthly in situ in soil substantially exceeds the monthly mineral-N inputs via wet deposition at the sites.

A spatially-based modeling framework for assessing the risks of soil-associated metals to bats.

Populations of some species of bats are declining in some regions of Europe. These declines are probably due to a range of pressures, including climate change, urbanization and exposure to toxins such as metals. This paper describes the development, paramaterisation and application of a spatially explicit modeling framework to predict the risks of soil-associated metals (lead, copper, zinc and cadmium) to bat health. Around 5.9% of areas where bats reside were predicted to have lead levels that pose a risk to bat health. For copper, this value was 2.8%, for cadmium it was 0.6% and for zinc 0.5%. Further work is therefore warranted to explore the impacts of soil-associated metals on bat populations in the UK.

Biomechanical analysis of different types of pedicle screw augmentation: a cadaveric and synthetic bone sample study of instrumented vertebral specimens.

This study aims to determine the pull-out strength, stiffness and failure pull-out energy of cement-augmented, cannulated-fenestrated pedicle screws in an osteoporotic cadaveric thoracolumbar model, and to determine, using synthetic bone samples, the extraction torques of screws pre-filled with cement and those with cement injected through perforations. Radiographs and bone mineral density measurements from 32 fresh thoracolumbar vertebrae were used to define specimen quality. Axial pull-out strength of screws was determined through mechanical testing. Mechanical pull-out strength, stiffness and energy-to-failure ratio were recorded for cement-augmented and non-cement-augmented screws. Synthetic bone simulating a human spinal bone with severe osteoporosis was used to measure the maximum extraction torque. The pull-out strength and stiffness-to-failure ratio of cement pre-filled and cement-injected screws were significantly higher than the non-cement-augmented control group. However, the cement pre-filled and cement-injected groups did not differ significantly across these values (p=0.07). The cement pre-filled group had the highest failure pull-out energy, approximately 2.8 times greater than that of the cement-injected (p<0.001), and approximately 11.5 times greater than that of the control groups (p<0.001). In the axial pull-out test, the cement-injected group had a greater maximum extraction torque than the cement pre-filled group, but was statistically insignificant (p=0.17). The initial fixation strength of cannulated screws pre-filled with cement is similar to that of cannulated screws injected with cement through perforations. This comparable strength, along with the heightened pull-out energy and reduced extraction torque, indicates that pedicle screws pre-filled with cement are superior for bone fixation over pedicle screws injected with cement.

Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

Spatial and temporal trends in nitrate concentrations in the River Derwent, North Yorkshire, and its need for NVZ status.

Long-term spatial and temporal variations in nitrate-N concentrations along the River Derwent have been examined using Environment Agency data to investigate the relative importance of impacts of atmospheric N deposition, land use, and changes in management. Where moorland and rough grazing dominate upstream of Forge Valley and Malton, over the 20 years since 1988 mean nitrate-N concentrations were initially increasing significantly, but are now levelling off, with peaks at ca. 4.5 mg Nl(-1). As expected in a catchment in a nitrate vulnerable zone (NVZ), more agricultural land use increases mean nitrate concentrations and the occurrence of distinct winter maxima, though the latter have become markedly less pronounced since 2001. It is suggested that this improvement is a combined effect of imposition of NVZ designation in the lower reaches in 2002, animal number declines associated with the Foot & Mouth outbreak in the region in 2001, and the impact of farmers' responses to increasing fertilizer prices and to beneficial pollutant mineral N inputs from the atmosphere. Minima in nitrate-N concentrations in summer have become much less pronounced over the past decade and are typically ca. 60% higher in concentration than a decade earlier. This probably is attributable to the effects of pollutant-N leaching to depths in soil below the rooting zone when near surface biotic uptake is low in winter. The resultant N mineralization in summer enhances summer nitrate leaching. The Derwent is a relatively clean river; however, its entire catchment was designated justifiably as a NVZ in January 2009, apparently based upon a projected 95 percentile nitrate-N concentration >11.29 mg l(-1) for 2010 based upon forward projection of data from 1990 to 2004 for Derwent Bridge. A survey of water quality in March 2009 showed that some agricultural areas are still making a significant contribution to the total nitrate level well downstream, at the point responsible for implementation of NVZ status. At 3 of the 29 sites sampled, nitrate concentration exceeded 60 mg l(-1).