The Arctic in the Twenty-First Century: Changing Biogeochemical Linkages across a Paraglacial Landscape of Greenland.

The Kangerlussuaq area of southwest Greenland encompasses diverse ecological, geomorphic, and climate gradients that function over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Ecosystems range from the microbial communities on the ice sheet and moisture-stressed terrestrial vegetation (and their associated herbivores) to freshwater and oligosaline lakes. These ecosystems are linked by a dynamic glacio-fluvial-aeolian geomorphic system that transports water, geological material, organic carbon and nutrients from the glacier surface to adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems. This paraglacial system is now subject to substantial change because of rapid regional warming since 2000. Here, we describe changes in the eco- and geomorphic systems at a range of timescales and explore rapid future change in the links that integrate these systems. We highlight the importance of cross-system subsidies at the landscape scale and, importantly, how these might change in the near future as the Arctic is expected to continue to warm.

Trajectory of the Arctic as an integrated system.

Although much remains to be learned about the Arctic and its component processes, many of the most urgent scientific, engineering, and social questions can only be approached through a broader system perspective. Here, we address interactions between components of the Arctic system and assess feedbacks and the extent to which feedbacks (1) are now underway in the Arctic and (2) will shape the future trajectory of the Arctic system. We examine interdependent connections among atmospheric processes, oceanic processes, sea-ice dynamics, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land surface stocks of carbon and water, glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet. Our emphasis on the interactions between components, both historical and anticipated, is targeted on the feedbacks, pathways, and processes that link these different components of the Arctic system. We present evidence that the physical components of the Arctic climate system are currently in extreme states, and that there is no indication that the system will deviate from this anomalous trajectory in the foreseeable future. The feedback for which the evidence of ongoing changes is most compelling is the surface albedo-temperature feedback, which is amplifying temperature changes over land (primarily in spring) and ocean (primarily in autumn-winter). Other feedbacks likely to emerge are those in which key processes include surface fluxes of trace gases, changes in the distribution of vegetation, changes in surface soil moisture, changes in atmospheric water vapor arising from higher temperatures and greater areas of open ocean, impacts of Arctic freshwater fluxes on the meridional overturning circulation of the ocean, and changes in Arctic clouds resulting from changes in water vapor content.