Social-ecological vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries to climate change.

Climate change is a new disrupter to global fisheries systems and their governance frameworks. It poses a pressing management challenge, particularly in China, which is renowned as the world's largest fishing country and seafood producer. As climate change continues to intensify in the region and climate awareness grows within the country's national policy, the need to understand China's fisheries' resilience to the escalating climate crisis becomes paramount. In this study, we conduct an interdisciplinary analysis to assess the vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries in response to climate change. This study employs a spatially explicit, indicator-based approach with a coupled social-ecological framework, focusing on 67 species and 11 coastal regions. By integrating diverse sets of climatic, ecological, economic, societal, and governance indicators and information, we elucidate the factors that could hinder climate adaptation, including a limited understanding of fish early life stages, uncertainty in seafood production, unequal allocation and accessibility of resources, and inadequate consideration of inclusive governance and adaptive management. Our results show that species, which have managed to survive the stress of overfishing, demonstrate a remarkable ability to adapt to climate change. However, collapsing stocks such as large yellow croaker face a high risk due to the synergistic effects of inherent biological traits and external management interventions. We emphasize the imperative to build institutional, scientific, and social capacity to support fisheries adaptation. The scientific insights provided by this study can inform fisheries management decisions and promote the operationalization of climate-resilient fisheries in China and other regions.

Race, Genetic Ancestry, and Estimating Kidney Function in CKD.

BACKGROUND: The inclusion of race in equations to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) has become controversial. Alternative equations that can be used to achieve similar accuracy without the use of race are needed. METHODS: In a large national study involving adults with chronic kidney disease, we conducted cross-sectional analyses of baseline data from 1248 participants for whom data, including the following, had been collected: race as reported by the participant, genetic ancestry markers, and the serum creatinine, serum cystatin C, and 24-hour urinary creatinine levels. RESULTS: Using current formulations of GFR estimating equations, we found that in participants who identified as Black, a model that omitted race resulted in more underestimation of the GFR (median difference between measured and estimated GFR, 3.99 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.17 to 5.62) and lower accuracy (percent of estimated GFR within 10% of measured GFR [P10], 31%; 95% CI, 24 to 39) than models that included race (median difference, 1.11 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, -0.29 to 2.54; P10, 42%; 95% CI, 34 to 50). The incorporation of genetic ancestry data instead of race resulted in similar estimates of the GFR (median difference, 1.33 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, -0.12 to 2.33; P10, 42%; 95% CI, 34 to 50). The inclusion of non-GFR determinants of the serum creatinine level (e.g., body-composition metrics and urinary excretion of creatinine) that differed according to race reported by the participants and genetic ancestry did not eliminate the misclassification introduced by removing race (or ancestry) from serum creatinine-based GFR estimating equations. In contrast, the incorporation of race or ancestry was not necessary to achieve similarly statistically unbiased (median difference, 0.33 ml per minute per 1.73 m2; 95% CI, -1.43 to 1.92) and accurate (P10, 41%; 95% CI, 34 to 49) estimates in Black participants when GFR was estimated with the use of cystatin C. CONCLUSIONS: The use of the serum creatinine level to estimate the GFR without race (or genetic ancestry) introduced systematic misclassification that could not be eliminated even when numerous non-GFR determinants of the serum creatinine level were accounted for. The estimation of GFR with the use of cystatin C generated similar results while eliminating the negative consequences of the current race-based approaches. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others.).

Factors Associated With Non-vaccination for Influenza Among Patients With CKD: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Vaccination for influenza is strongly recommended for people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to their immunocompromised state. Identifying risk factors for not receiving an influenza vaccine (non-vaccination) could inform strategies for improving vaccine uptake in this high-risk population. STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,692 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study (CRIC) participants. EXPOSURE: Demographic factors, social determinants of health, clinical conditions, and health behaviors. OUTCOME: Influenza non-vaccination, which was assessed based on a receipt of influenza vaccine ascertained during annual clinic visits in a subset of participants who were under nephrology care. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Mixed-effects Poisson models to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs). RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2020, the pooled mean vaccine uptake was 72% (mean age, 66 years; 44% female; 44% Black race). In multivariable models, factors significantly associated with influenza non-vaccination were younger age (APR, 2.16 [95% CI, 1.85-2.52] for<50 vs≥75 years), Black race (APR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.43-1.75] vs White race), lower education (APR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.04-1.39 for less than high school vs college graduate]), lower annual household income (APR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.06-1.49] for <$20,000 vs >$100,000), formerly married status (APR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.09-1.35] vs currently married), and nonemployed status (APR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.02-1.24] vs employed). In contrast, participants with diabetes (APR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.73-0.87] vs no diabetes), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (APR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.70-0.92] vs no COPD), end-stage kidney disease (APR, 0.64 [0.56 to 0.76] vs estimated glomerular filtration rate≥60mL/min/1.73m2), frailty (APR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.74-0.99] vs no frailty), and ideal physical activity (APR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.82-0.99] vs. physically inactive) were less likely to have non-vaccination status. LIMITATIONS: Possible residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults with CKD receiving nephrology care, younger adults, Black individuals, and those with adverse social determinants of health were more likely to have the influenza non-vaccination status. Strategies are needed to address these disparities and reduce barriers to vaccination. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Identifying risk factors for not receiving an influenza vaccine ("non-vaccination") in people living with kidney disease, who are at risk of influenza and its complications, could inform strategies for improving vaccine uptake. In this study, we examined whether demographic factors, social determinants of health, and clinical conditions were linked to the status of not receiving an influenza vaccine among people living with kidney disease and receiving nephrology care. We found that younger adults, Black individuals, and those with adverse social determinants of health were more likely to not receive the influenza vaccine. These findings suggest the need for strategies to address these disparities and reduce barriers to vaccination in people living with kidney disease.

Adherence to Plant-Based Diets and Risk of CKD Progression and All-Cause Mortality: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Studies have shown that generally healthy individuals who consume diets rich in plant foods have a lower risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease. This study investigated the prospective associations of plant-based diets with the risk of CKD progression and all-cause mortality in individuals with CKD. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 2,539 participants with CKD recruited between 2003-2008 into the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. EXPOSURE: Responses on the Diet History Questionnaire were used to calculate scores for the overall plant-based diet index, healthy plant-based diet index, and unhealthy plant-based diet index. OUTCOME: (1) CKD progression defined as≥50% estimated glomerular filtration rate decline from baseline or kidney replacement therapy (dialysis, transplant) and (2) all-cause mortality. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazards models to compute hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals adjusting for lifestyle, socioeconomic, and clinical covariates. RESULTS: There were 977 CKD progression events and 836 deaths during a median follow-up period of 7 and 12 years, respectively. Participants with the highest versus lowest adherence to overall plant-based diets and healthy plant-based diets had 26% (HR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.62-0.88], P trend<0.001) and 21% (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.66-0.95], P trend=0.03) lower risks of all-cause mortality, respectively. Each 10-point higher score of unhealthy plant-based diets was modestly associated with a higher risk of CKD progression (HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.03-1.25) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.00-1.23). LIMITATIONS: Self-reported diet may be subject to measurement error. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to an overall plant-based diet and a healthy plant-based diet is associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality among individuals with CKD. An unhealthy plant-based was associated with an elevated risk of CKD progression and all-cause mortality. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Plant-based diets are healthful dietary patterns that have been linked to a lower risk of chronic diseases. However, the impact of plant-based diets on clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is not well established. In 2,539 individuals with CKD, we examined the associations of adherence to 3 different types of plant-based diets with the risks of CKD progression and all-cause mortality. We found that following an overall plant-based diet and a healthy plant-based diet was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality. By contrast, following an unhealthy plant-based diet was associated with a higher risk of CKD progression and all-cause mortality. These results suggest that the quality of plant-based diets may be important for CKD management.

Merging trait-based ecology and regime shift theory to anticipate community responses to warming.

Anthropogenic warming is altering species abundance, distribution, physiology, and more. How changes observed at the species level alter emergent community properties is an active and urgent area of research. Trait-based ecology and regime shift theory provide complementary ways to understand climate change impacts on communities, but these two bodies of work are only rarely integrated. Lack of integration handicaps our ability to understand community responses to warming, at a time when such understanding is critical. Therefore, we advocate for merging trait-based ecology with regime shift theory. We propose a general set of principles to guide this merger and apply these principles to research on marine communities in the rapidly warming North Atlantic. In our example, combining trait distribution and regime shift analyses at the community level yields greater insight than either alone. Looking forward, we identify a clear need for expanding quantitative approaches to collecting and merging trait-based and resilience metrics in order to advance our understanding of climate-driven community change.

The Health4Life e-health intervention for modifying lifestyle risk behaviours of adolescents: secondary outcomes of a cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effectiveness of a school-based multiple health behaviour change e-health intervention for modifying risk factors for chronic disease (secondary outcomes). STUDY DESIGN: Cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Students (at baseline [2019]: year 7, 11-14 years old) at 71 Australian public, independent, and Catholic schools. INTERVENTION: Health4Life: an e-health school-based multiple health behaviour change intervention for reducing increases in the six major behavioural risk factors for chronic disease: physical inactivity, poor diet, excessive recreational screen time, poor sleep, and use of alcohol and tobacco. It comprises six online video modules during health education class and a smartphone app. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparison of Health4Life and usual health education with respect to their impact on changes in twelve secondary outcomes related to the six behavioural risk factors, assessed in surveys at baseline, immediately after the intervention, and 12 and 24 months after the intervention: binge drinking, discretionary food consumption risk, inadequate fruit and vegetable intake, difficulty falling asleep, and light physical activity frequency (categorical); tobacco smoking frequency, alcohol drinking frequency, alcohol-related harm, daytime sleepiness, and time spent watching television and using electronic devices (continuous). RESULTS: A total of 6640 year 7 students completed the baseline survey (Health4Life: 3610; control: 3030); 6454 (97.2%) completed at least one follow-up survey, 5698 (85.8%) two or more follow-up surveys. Health4Life was not statistically more effective than usual school health education for influencing changes in any of the twelve outcomes over 24 months; for example: fruit intake inadequate: odds ratio [OR], 1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-2.05); vegetable intake inadequate: OR, 0.97 (95% CI, 0.64-1.47); increased light physical activity: OR, 1.00 (95% CI, 0.72-1.38); tobacco use frequency: relative difference, 0.03 (95% CI, -0.58 to 0.64) days per 30 days; alcohol use frequency: relative difference, -0.34 (95% CI, -1.16 to 0.49) days per 30 days; device use time: relative difference, -0.07 (95% CI, -0.29 to 0.16) hours per day. CONCLUSIONS: Health4Life was not more effective than usual school year 7 health education for modifying adolescent risk factors for chronic disease. Future e-health multiple health behaviour change intervention research should examine the timing and length of the intervention, as well as increasing the number of engagement strategies (eg, goal setting) during the intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12619000431123 (prospective).

Co-occurring mental and substance use disorders in Australia 2020-2022: Prevalence, patterns, conditional probabilities and correlates in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Previous estimates from 2007 found that co-occurring mental and/or substance use disorders were a pervasive feature of Australia's mental health. Since that time there have been shifts and improvements in the conceptualisation and incorporation of co-occurring disorders in research and treatment settings. The current study provides up-to-date estimates on the prevalence of co-occurring mental and/or substance use disorders, highlights common patterns of co-occurrence, identifies significant correlates and examines any changes in the extent of co-occurring disorders since 2007. METHODS: Data were from the two Australian National Surveys of Mental Health and Wellbeing conducted in 2020-2022 (N = 15,893) and 2007 (N = 8841). Descriptive statistics were estimated for the number of co-occurring conditions, correlations and pairwise conditional probabilities. Multinomial logistic and robust Poisson regressions were used to identify significant correlates and compare changes in co-occurring conditions across surveys. RESULTS: Approximately 46% of people with a mental or substance use disorder in the past 12 months experienced two or more diagnosable conditions. There was little evidence to suggest that the prevalence of co-occurring disorders has changed since 2007 (Prevalence Ratio (PR) = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.98-1.18). Subgroup analysis indicated that those aged 16-24 years were significantly more likely to experience any co-occurrence in 2020-2022 compared with those aged 16-24 years in 2007 (PR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.17-1.77). CONCLUSIONS: Co-occurring mental and substance use disorders remain endemic in Australia. Indeed, they appear to be increasingly problematic in younger, more recent cohorts. The results suggest that continued effort is needed to develop and implement transdiagnostic interventions that target broad contextual and/or societal factors.

Social, Behavioral, and Metabolic Risk Factors and Racial Disparities in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in U.S. Adults : An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is persistently higher in the Black population than in other racial and ethnic groups in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To examine the degree to which social, behavioral, and metabolic risk factors are associated with CVD mortality and the extent to which racial differences in CVD mortality persist after these factors are accounted for. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) 1999 to 2018. PARTICIPANTS: A nationally representative sample of 50 808 persons aged 20 years or older. MEASUREMENTS: Data on social, behavioral, and metabolic factors were collected in each NHANES survey using standard methods. Deaths from CVD were ascertained from linkage to the National Death Index with follow-up through 2019. RESULTS: Over an average of 9.4 years of follow-up, 2589 CVD deaths were confirmed. The age- and sex-standardized rates of CVD mortality were 484.7 deaths per 100 000 person-years in Black participants, 384.5 deaths per 100 000 person-years in White participants, 292.4 deaths per 100 000 person-years in Hispanic participants, and 255.1 deaths per 100 000 person-years in other race groups. In a multiple Cox regression analysis adjusted for all measured risk factors simultaneously, several social (unemployment, low family income, food insecurity, lack of home ownership, and unpartnered status), behavioral (current smoking, lack of leisure-time physical activity, and sleep <6 or >8 h/d), and metabolic (obesity, hypertension, and diabetes) risk factors were associated with a significantly higher risk for CVD death. After adjustment for these metabolic, behavioral, and social risk factors separately, hazard ratios of CVD mortality for Black compared with White participants were attenuated from 1.54 (95% CI, 1.34 to 1.77) to 1.34 (CI, 1.16 to 1.55), 1.31 (CI, 1.15 to 1.50), and 1.04 (CI, 0.90 to 1.21), respectively. LIMITATION: Causal contributions of social, behavioral, and metabolic risk factors to racial and ethnic disparities in CVD mortality could not be established. CONCLUSION: The Black-White difference in CVD mortality diminished after adjustment for behavioral and metabolic risk factors and completely dissipated with adjustment for social determinants of health in the U.S. population. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Leveraging Implementation Science for Cardiovascular Health Equity: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Reducing cardiovascular disease disparities will require a concerted, focused effort to better adopt evidence-based interventions, in particular, those that address social determinants of health, in historically marginalized populations (ie, communities excluded on the basis of social identifiers like race, ethnicity, and social class and subject to inequitable distribution of social, economic, physical, and psychological resources). Implementation science is centered around stakeholder engagement and, by virtue of its reliance on theoretical frameworks, is custom built for addressing research-to-practice gaps. However, little guidance exists for how best to leverage implementation science to promote cardiovascular health equity. This American Heart Association scientific statement was commissioned to define implementation science with a cardiovascular health equity lens and to evaluate implementation research that targets cardiovascular inequities. We provide a 4-step roadmap and checklist with critical equity considerations for selecting/adapting evidence-based practices, assessing barriers and facilitators to implementation, selecting/using/adapting implementation strategies, and evaluating implementation success. Informed by our roadmap, we examine several organizational, community, policy, and multisetting interventions and implementation strategies developed to reduce cardiovascular disparities. We highlight gaps in implementation science research to date aimed at achieving cardiovascular health equity, including lack of stakeholder engagement, rigorous mixed methods, and equity-informed theoretical frameworks. We provide several key suggestions, including the need for improved conceptualization and inclusion of social and structural determinants of health in implementation science, and the use of adaptive, hybrid effectiveness designs. In addition, we call for more rigorous examination of multilevel interventions and implementation strategies with the greatest potential for reducing both primary and secondary cardiovascular disparities.

A global synthesis of climate vulnerability assessments on marine fisheries: Methods, scales, and knowledge co-production.

Undertaking climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) on marine fisheries is instrumental to the identification of regions, species, and stakeholders at risk of impacts from climate change, and the development of effective and targeted responses for fisheries adaptation. In this global literature review, we addressed three important questions to characterize fisheries CVAs: (i) what are the available approaches to develop CVAs in various social-ecological contexts, (ii) are different geographic scales and regions adequately represented, and (iii) how do diverse knowledge systems contribute to current understanding of vulnerability? As part of these general research efforts, we identified and characterized an inventory of frameworks and indicators that encompass a wide range of foci on ecological and socioeconomic dimensions of climate vulnerability on fisheries. Our analysis highlighted a large gap between countries with top research inputs and the most urgent adaptation needs. More research and resources are needed in low-income tropical countries to ensure existing inequities are not exacerbated. We also identified an uneven research focus across spatial scales and cautioned a possible scale mismatch between assessment and management needs. Drawing on this information, we catalog (1) a suite of research directions that could improve the utility and applicability of CVAs, particularly the examination of barriers and enabling conditions that influence the uptake of CVA results into management responses at multiple levels, (2) the lessons that have been learned from applications in data-limited regions, particularly the use of proxy indicators and knowledge co-production to overcome the problem of data deficiency, and (3) opportunities for wider applications, for example diversifying the use of vulnerability indicators in broader monitoring and management schemes. This information is used to provide a set of recommendations that could advance meaningful CVA practices for fisheries management and promote effective translation of climate vulnerability into adaptation actions.

Race-specific spirometry equations may overestimate asthma control in Black children and adolescents.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of evidence suggests that use of race terms in spirometry reference equations underestimates disease burden in Black populations, which may lead to disparities in pulmonary disease outcomes. Data on asthma-specific health consequences of using race-adjusted spirometry are lacking. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of 163 children from two observational asthma studies to determine the frequencies of participants with ppFEV1 < 80% (consistent with uncontrolled asthma) or ppFEV1 ≥ 80% using race-specific (GLI-African American or Caucasian) vs. race-neutral (GLI-Global) spirometry and their alignment with indicators of asthma control (Asthma Control Test™, ACT). Comparisons of mean ppFEV1 values were conducted using Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-rank tests. Two group comparisons were conducted using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. RESULTS: Data from 163 children (100 Black, 63 White) were analyzed. Mean ppFEV1 was 95.4% (SD 15.8) using race-specific spirometry and 90.4% (16.3) using race-neutral spirometry (p < 0.0001). Among 54 Black children with uncontrolled asthma (ACT ≤ 19), 20% had ppFEV1 < 80% using race-specific spirometry compared to 40% using race-neutral spirometry. In Black children with controlled asthma (ACT > 19), 87% had ppFEV1 ≥ 80% using race-specific compared to 67% using race-neutral spirometry. Children whose ppFEV1 changed to ≤ 80% with race-neutral spirometry had lower FEV1/FVC compared to those whose ppFEV1 remained ≥ 80% [0.83 (0.07) vs. 0.77 (0.05), respectively; p = 0.04], suggesting greater airway obstruction. Minimal changes in alignment of ppFEV1 with ACT score were observed for White children. CONCLUSIONS: Use of race-specific reference equations in Black children may increase the risk of inappropriately labeling asthma as controlled.

Building use-inspired species distribution models: Using multiple data types to examine and improve model performance.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming an important tool for marine conservation and management. Yet while there is an increasing diversity and volume of marine biodiversity data for training SDMs, little practical guidance is available on how to leverage distinct data types to build robust models. We explored the effect of different data types on the fit, performance and predictive ability of SDMs by comparing models trained with four data types for a heavily exploited pelagic fish, the blue shark (Prionace glauca), in the Northwest Atlantic: two fishery dependent (conventional mark-recapture tags, fisheries observer records) and two fishery independent (satellite-linked electronic tags, pop-up archival tags). We found that all four data types can result in robust models, but differences among spatial predictions highlighted the need to consider ecological realism in model selection and interpretation regardless of data type. Differences among models were primarily attributed to biases in how each data type, and the associated representation of absences, sampled the environment and summarized the resulting species distributions. Outputs from model ensembles and a model trained on all pooled data both proved effective for combining inferences across data types and provided more ecologically realistic predictions than individual models. Our results provide valuable guidance for practitioners developing SDMs. With increasing access to diverse data sources, future work should further develop truly integrative modeling approaches that can explicitly leverage the strengths of individual data types while statistically accounting for limitations, such as sampling biases.

A systematic review of alcohol consumption and disorders in relation to disasters.

BACKGROUND: Excessive alcohol use and alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are serious medical problems in general populations. Alcohol use is associated with stressful events. Thus it is possible that problems with alcohol use increase in association with disasters. It is important to know the extent to which disasters contribute to these problems in exposed populations. METHODS: This review focused on the associations of alcohol use, problematic alcohol use, and AUDs with disasters. Alcohol variables were examined for predisaster to postdisaster changes and differences between samples according to disaster exposures. RESULTS: In all, 44 studies were found that addressed the association of alcohol variables with disaster. Much of this research had substantive methodological difficulties limiting the conclusions. Most research examining changes in alcohol use after disasters reported increases, but the increases were clinically small, amounting to ≤1 drink per day, and alcohol use returned to predisaster levels over time. The research on problematic alcohol use provided little evidence of an association with disasters. The studies of AUDs did not support their association with disaster. CONCLUSIONS: Even without clear evidence that disasters cause increases in alcohol use problems, it is important in the postdisaster setting to assess problems of alcohol use along with psychopathology.

Prediction of End-Stage Kidney Disease Using Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate With and Without Race : A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: New estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) equations removed race adjustment, but the impact of its removal on prediction of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To compare the ESKD prediction performance of different eGFR equations. DESIGN: Observational, prospective cohort study. SETTING: 7 U.S. clinical centers. PARTICIPANTS: 3873 participants with chronic kidney disease (CKD) from the CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study contributing 13 902 two-year risk periods. MEASUREMENTS: ESKD was defined as initiation of dialysis or transplantation. eGFR was calculated using 5 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations based on serum creatinine and/or cystatin C, with or without race adjustment. The predicted 2-year risk for ESKD was calculated using the 4-variable Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). We evaluated the prediction performance of eGFR equations and the KFRE score using discrimination and calibration analyses. RESULTS: During a maximum 16 years of follow-up, 856 participants developed ESKD. Across all eGFR equations, the KFRE score was superior for predicting 2-year incidence of ESKD compared with eGFR alone (area under the curve ranges, 0.945 to 0.954 vs. 0.900 to 0.927). Prediction performance of KFRE scores using different eGFR equations was similar, but the creatinine equation without race adjustment improved calibration among Black participants. Among all participants, compared with an eGFR less than 20 mL/min/1.73 m2, a KFRE score greater than 20% had similar specificity for predicting 2-year ESKD risk (ranges, 0.94 to 0.97 vs. 0.95 to 0.98) but higher sensitivity (ranges, 0.68 to 0.78 vs. 0.42 to 0.66). LIMITATION: Data are solely from the United States. CONCLUSION: The KFRE score better predicts 2-year risk for ESKD compared with eGFR alone, regardless of race adjustment. The creatinine equation with age and sex may improve calibration among Black patients. A KFRE score greater than 20% showed high specificity and sensitivity for predicting 2-year risk for ESKD. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Association of Proximal Tubular Secretory Clearance with Long-Term Decline in Cognitive Function.

BACKGROUND: People with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk for cognitive impairment and progressive cognitive decline. Retention of protein-bound organic solutes that are normally removed by tubular secretion is hypothesized to contribute to cognitive impairment in CKD. METHODS: We followed 2362 participants who were initially free of cognitive impairment and stroke in the prospective Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. We estimated tubular secretory clearance by the 24-hour kidney clearances of eight endogenous solutes that are primarily eliminated by tubular secretion. CRIC study investigators assessed participants' cognitive function annually using the Modified Mini-Mental State (3MS) Examination. Cognitive decline was defined as a sustained decrease of more than five points in the 3MS score from baseline. Using Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders, we analyzed associations between secretory solute clearances, serum solute concentrations, and cognitive decline. RESULTS: The median number of follow-up 3MS examinations was six per participant. There were 247 incident cognitive decline events over a median of 9.1 years of follow-up. Lower kidney clearances of five of the eight secretory solutes (cinnamoylglycine, isovalerylglycine, kynurenic acid, pyridoxic acid, and tiglylglycine) were associated with cognitive decline after adjustment for baseline eGFR, proteinuria, and other confounding variables. Effect sizes ranged from a 17% to a 34% higher risk of cognitive decline per 50% lower clearance. In contrast, serum concentrations of the solutes were not associated with cognitive decline. CONCLUSIONS: Lower kidney clearances of secreted solutes are associated with incident global cognitive decline in a prospective study of CKD, independent of eGFR. Further work is needed to determine the domains of cognition most affected by decreased secretory clearance and the mechanisms of these associations.

Development of a screening protocol to identify persons who are responsive to wood smoke particle-induced airway inflammation with pilot assessment of GSTM1 genotype and asthma status as response modifiers.

BACKGROUND: We are currently screening human volunteers to determine their sputum polymorphonuclear neutrophil (PMN) response 6- and 24-hours following initiation of exposure to wood smoke particles (WSP). Inflammatory responders (≥10% increase in %PMN) are identified for their subsequent participation in mitigation studies against WSP-induced airways inflammation. In this report we compared responder status (<i>N</i> = 52) at both 6 and 24 hr time points to refine/expand its classification, assessed the impact of the GSTM1 genotype, asthma status and sex on responder status, and explored whether sputum soluble phase markers of inflammation correlate with PMN responsiveness to WSP. RESULTS: Six-hour responders tended to be 24-hour responders and vice versa, but 24-hour responders also had significantly increased IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-8 at 24 hours post WSP exposure. The GSTM1 null genotype significantly (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) enhanced the %PMN response by 24% in the 24-hour responders and not at all in the 6 hours responders. Asthma status enhanced the 24 hour %PMN response in the 6- and 24-hour responders. In the entire cohort (not stratified by responder status), we found a significant, but very small decrease in FVC and systolic blood pressure immediately following WSP exposure and sputum %PMNs were significantly increased and associated with sputum inflammatory markers (IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-8, and PMN/mg) at 24 but not 6 hours post exposure. Blood endpoints in the entire cohort showed a significant increase in %PMN and PMN/mg at 6 but not 24 hours. Sex had no effect on %PMN response. CONCLUSIONS: The 24-hour time point was more informative than the 6-hour time point in optimally and expansively defining airway inflammatory responsiveness to WSP exposure. GSTM1 and asthma status are significant effect modifiers of this response. These study design and subject parameters should be considered before enrolling volunteers for proof-of-concept WSP mitigation studies.

Estimating posttraumatic stress disorder severity in the presence of differential item functioning across populations, comorbidities, and interview measures: Introduction to Project Harmony.

Multiple factor analytic and item response theory studies have shown that items/symptoms vary in their relative clinical weights in structured interview measures for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Despite these findings, the use of total scores, which treat symptoms as though they are equally weighted, predominates in practice, with the consequence of undermining the precision of clinical decision-making. We conducted an integrative data analysis (IDA) study to harmonize PTSD structured interview data (i.e., recoding of items to a common symptom metric) from 25 studies (total N = 2,568). We aimed to identify (a) measurement noninvariance/differential item functioning (MNI/DIF) across multiple populations, psychiatric comorbidities, and interview measures simultaneously and (b) differences in inferences regarding underlying PTSD severity between scale scores estimated using moderated nonlinear factor analysis (MNLFA) and a total score analog model (TSA). Several predictors of MNI/DIF impacted effect size differences in underlying severity across scale scoring methods. Notably, we observed MNI/DIF substantial enough to bias inferences on underlying PTSD severity for two groups: African Americans and incarcerated women. The findings highlight two issues raised elsewhere in the PTSD psychometrics literature: (a) bias in characterizing underlying PTSD severity and individual-level treatment outcomes when the psychometric model underlying total scores fails to fit the data and (b) higher latent severity scores, on average, when using DSM-5 (net of MNI/DIF) criteria, by which multiple factors (e.g., Criterion A discordance across DSM editions, changes to the number/type of symptom clusters, changes to the symptoms themselves) may have impacted severity scoring for some patients.

Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures.

The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. These trends elevate the frequency of "surprises"-conditions that are unexpected based on recent history. Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent temperature trends. Using a simple model of human adaptation, we show that these surprises will increasingly challenge natural modes of adaptation that rely on historical experience. We also show that warming rates are likely to shift natural communities toward generalist species, reducing their productivity and diversity. Our work demonstrates increasing benefits for individuals and institutions from betting that trends will continue, but this strategy represents a radical shift that will be difficult for many to make.

Adherence to Healthy Dietary Patterns and Risk of CKD Progression and All-Cause Mortality: Findings From the CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Current dietary guidelines recommend that patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) restrict individual nutrients, such as sodium, potassium, phosphorus, and protein. This approach can be difficult for patients to implement and ignores important nutrient interactions. Dietary patterns are an alternative method to intervene on diet. Our objective was to define the associations of 4 healthy dietary patterns with risk for CKD progression and all-cause mortality among people with CKD. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 2,403 participants aged 21 to 74 years with estimated glomerular filtration rates of 20 to 70mL/min/1.73m2 and dietary data in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. EXPOSURES: Healthy Eating Index-2015, Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010, alternate Mediterranean diet (aMed), and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet scores were calculated from food frequency questionnaires. OUTCOMES: (1) CKD progression defined as≥50% estimated glomerular filtration rate decline, kidney transplantation, or dialysis and (2) all-cause mortality. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for demographic, lifestyle, and clinical covariates to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: There were 855 cases of CKD progression and 773 deaths during a maximum of 14 years. Compared with participants with the lowest adherence, the most highly adherent tertile of Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010, aMed, and DASH had lower adjusted risk for CKD progression, with the strongest results for aMed (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.62-0.90). Compared with participants with the lowest adherence, the highest adherence tertiles for all scores had lower adjusted risk for all-cause mortality for each index (24%-31% lower risk). LIMITATIONS: Self-reported dietary intake. CONCLUSIONS: Greater adherence to several healthy dietary patterns is associated with lower risk for CKD progression and all-cause mortality among people with CKD. Guidance to adopt healthy dietary patterns can be considered as a strategy for managing CKD.

Longitudinal Changes in Prorenin and Renin in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Prorenin, a precursor of renin, and renin play an important role in regulation of the renin-angiotensin system. More recently, receptor-bound prorenin has been shown to activate intracellular signaling pathways that mediate fibrosis, independent of angiotensin II. Prorenin and renin may thus be of physiologic significance in CKD, but their plasma concentrations have not been well characterized in CKD. METHODS: We evaluated distribution and longitudinal changes of prorenin and renin concentrations in the plasma samples collected at follow-up years 1, 2, 3, and 5 of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study, an ongoing longitudinal observational study of 3,939 adults with CKD. Descriptive statistics and multivariable regression of log-transformed values were used to describe cross-sectional and longitudinal variation and associations with participant characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 3,361 CRIC participants had plasma available for analysis at year 1. The mean age (±standard deviation, SD) was 59 ± 11 years, and the mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, ± SD) was 43 ± 17 mL/min per 1.73 m2. Median (interquartile range) values of plasma prorenin and renin at study entry were 4.4 (2.1, 8.8) ng/mL and 2.0 (0.8, 5.9) ng/dL, respectively. Prorenin and renin were positively correlated (Spearman correlation 0.51, p < 0.001) with each other. Women and non-Hispanic blacks had lower prorenin and renin values at year 1. Diabetes, lower eGFR, and use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, statins, and diuretics were associated with higher levels. Prorenin and renin decreased by a mean of 2 and 5% per year, respectively. Non-Hispanic black race and eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2 at year 1 predicted a steeper decrease in prorenin and renin over time. In addition, each increase in urinary sodium excretion by 2 SDs at year 1 increased prorenin and renin levels by 4 and 5% per year, respectively. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: The cross-sectional clinical factors associated with prorenin and renin values were similar. Overall, both plasma prorenin and renin concentrations decreased over the years, particularly in those with severe CKD at study entry.