High regional climate sensitivity over continental China constrained by glacial-recent changes in temperature and the hydrological cycle.

The East Asian monsoon is one of Earth's most significant climatic phenomena, and numerous paleoclimate archives have revealed that it exhibits variations on orbital and suborbital time scales. Quantitative constraints on the climate changes associated with these past variations are limited, yet are needed to constrain sensitivity of the region to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Here, we show central China is a region that experienced a much larger temperature change since the Last Glacial Maximum than typically simulated by climate models. We applied clumped isotope thermometry to carbonates from the central Chinese Loess Plateau to reconstruct temperature and water isotope shifts from the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We find a summertime temperature change of 6-7 °C that is reproduced by climate model simulations presented here. Proxy data reveal evidence for a shift to lighter isotopic composition of meteoric waters in glacial times, which is also captured by our model. Analysis of model outputs suggests that glacial cooling over continental China is significantly amplified by the influence of stationary waves, which, in turn, are enhanced by continental ice sheets. These results not only support high regional climate sensitivity in Central China but highlight the fundamental role of planetary-scale atmospheric dynamics in the sensitivity of regional climates to continental glaciation, changing greenhouse gas levels, and insolation.

Oscillations in an intra-host model of Plasmodium Falciparum malaria due to cross-reactive immune response.

We consider an intra-host model of malaria that allows for antigenic variation within a single species. More specifically, the host's immune response is compartmentalized into reactions to major and minor epitopes. We investigate the conditions that lead to transient oscillations, which correspond to recurrent clinical episodes of the diseases, and how a small delay in the activation of the immune response can lead to persistent oscillations. We find that the efficacies of the immune responses to the major and minor epitopes, defined in terms of rate constants, play a crucial role in determining when there will be transient oscillations. The delay necessary to excite persistent oscillations, the time duration between disease episodes and their severity are also expressed in terms of the immune response efficacies. In addition, we describe how the severity and duration of the oscillations depend upon the parasite propagation rates and the immune response efficacies.

Synchronous versus asynchronous oscillations for antigenically varying Plasmodium falciparum with host immune response.

We consider a deterministic intra-host model for Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) malaria infection, which accounts for antigenic variation between n clonal variants of PfEMP1 and the corresponding host immune response (IR). Specifically, the model separates the IR into two components, specific and cross-reactive, respectively, in order to demonstrate that the latter can be a mechanism for the sequential appearance of variants observed in actual Pf infections. We show that a strong variant-specific IR relative to the cross-reactive IR favours the asynchronous oscillations (sequential dominance) over the synchronous oscillations in a number of ways. The decay rate of asynchronous oscillations is smaller than that for the synchronous oscillations, allowing for the parasite to survive longer. With the introduction of a delay in the stimulation of the IR, we show that only a small delay is necessary to cause persistent asynchronous oscillations and that a strong variant-specific IR increases the amplitude of the asynchronous oscillations.

Effect of state-dependent delay on a weakly damped nonlinear oscillator.

We consider a weakly damped nonlinear oscillator with state-dependent delay, which has applications in models for lasers, epidemics, and microparasites. More generally, the delay-differential equations considered are a predator-prey system where the delayed term is linear and represents the proliferation of the predator. We determine the critical value of the delay that causes the steady state to become unstable to periodic oscillations via a Hopf bifurcation. Using asymptotic averaging, we determine how the system's behavior is influenced by the functional form of the state-dependent delay. Specifically, we determine whether the branch of periodic solutions will be either sub- or supercritical as well as an accurate estimation of the amplitude. Finally, we choose a few examples of state-dependent delay to test our analytical results by comparing them to numerical continuation.

The dynamics behind Titan's methane clouds.

We present results of an axisymmetric global circulation model of Titan with a simplified suite of atmospheric physics forced by seasonally varying insolation. The recent discovery of midlatitude tropospheric clouds on Titan has caused much excitement about the roles of surface sources of methane and the global circulation in forming clouds. Although localized surface sources, such as methane geysers or "cryovolcanoes," have been invoked to explain these clouds, we find in this work that clouds appear in regions of convergence by the mean meridional circulation and over the poles during solstices, where the solar forcing reaches its seasonal maximum. Other regions are inhibited from forming clouds because of dynamical transports of methane and strong subsidence. We find that for a variety of moist regimes, i.e., with the effect of methane thermodynamics included, the observed cloud features can be explained by the large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere. Clouds at the solsticial pole are found to be a robust feature of Titan's dynamics, whereas isolated midlatitude clouds are present exclusively in a variety of moist dynamical regimes. In all cases, even without including methane thermodynamics, our model ceases to produce polar clouds approximately 4-6 terrestrial years after solstices.