Resistance Profile of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa Questioning the Effect of the Currently Advocated Dual Therapy.

BACKGROUND: We report on the antimicrobial resistance profile of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates and the distribution of tetM genes in isolates with high-level tetracycline resistance in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS: Male and female patients presenting with urethral and/or vaginal discharge were recruited into the study. Urethral and cervical secretions were cultured on New York City agar. Confirmatory tests for N. gonorrhoeae included Gram stain, catalase, oxidase, and carbohydrate utilization tests. Beta-lactamase was tested by means of the chromogenic cephalosporin test. Minimum inhibitory concentrations were determined using agar dilution with multipoint inoculation. Polymerase chain reaction with gel electrophoresis was used to detect the presence and type of the tetM gene. RESULTS: N. gonorrhoeae was isolated from the specimens of 319 (26%) of the 1220 recruited patients. Of these 319 isolates, 71% were resistant to 3 or more drugs. Resistance to azithromycin was found in 68% of the isolates. All isolates showed high-level tetracycline resistance with minimum inhibitory concentration values of 16 and 32 mg/mL. The tetM gene was present in 293 (92%). The American type was found in 264 (90%) and the Dutch type in 29 (10%). Twenty-six (8%) did not carry a tetM gene. CONCLUSIONS: The current syndromic management with dual ceftriaxone and azithromycin is due to the high level of azithromycin resistance factually single-drug therapy. High-level tetracycline resistance based on a resistance mechanism other than ribosome protection by the tetM gene product is present in N. gonorrhoeae infecting South African patients.

Molecular Characterization of Corynebacterium diphtheriae Outbreak Isolates, South Africa, March-June 2015.

In 2015, a cluster of respiratory diphtheria cases was reported from KwaZulu-Natal Province in South Africa. By using whole-genome analysis, we characterized 21 Corynebacterium diphtheriae isolates collected from 20 patients and contacts during the outbreak (1 patient was infected with 2 variants of C. diphtheriae). In addition, we included 1 cutaneous isolate, 2 endocarditis isolates, and 2 archived clinical isolates (ca. 1980) for comparison. Two novel lineages were identified, namely, toxigenic sequence type (ST) ST-378 (n = 17) and nontoxigenic ST-395 (n = 3). One archived isolate and the cutaneous isolate were ST-395, suggesting ongoing circulation of this lineage for >30 years. The absence of preexisting molecular sequence data limits drawing conclusions pertaining to the origin of these strains; however, these findings provide baseline genotypic data for future cases and outbreaks. Neither ST has been reported in any other country; this ST appears to be endemic only in South Africa.

ClassTR: Classifying Within-Host Heterogeneity Based on Tandem Repeats with Application to Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infections.

Genomic tools have revealed genetically diverse pathogens within some hosts. Within-host pathogen diversity, which we refer to as "complex infection", is increasingly recognized as a determinant of treatment outcome for infections like tuberculosis. Complex infection arises through two mechanisms: within-host mutation (which results in clonal heterogeneity) and reinfection (which results in mixed infections). Estimates of the frequency of within-host mutation and reinfection in populations are critical for understanding the natural history of disease. These estimates influence projections of disease trends and effects of interventions. The genotyping technique MLVA (multiple loci variable-number tandem repeats analysis) can identify complex infections, but the current method to distinguish clonal heterogeneity from mixed infections is based on a rather simple rule. Here we describe ClassTR, a method which leverages MLVA information from isolates collected in a population to distinguish mixed infections from clonal heterogeneity. We formulate the resolution of complex infections into their constituent strains as an optimization problem, and show its NP-completeness. We solve it efficiently by using mixed integer linear programming and graph decomposition. Once the complex infections are resolved into their constituent strains, ClassTR probabilistically classifies isolates as clonally heterogeneous or mixed by using a model of tandem repeat evolution. We first compare ClassTR with the standard rule-based classification on 100 simulated datasets. ClassTR outperforms the standard method, improving classification accuracy from 48% to 80%. We then apply ClassTR to a sample of 436 strains collected from tuberculosis patients in a South African community, of which 92 had complex infections. We find that ClassTR assigns an alternate classification to 18 of the 92 complex infections, suggesting important differences in practice. By explicitly modeling tandem repeat evolution, ClassTR helps to improve our understanding of the mechanisms driving within-host diversity of pathogens like Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Within-Host Heterogeneity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection Is Associated With Poor Early Treatment Response: A Prospective Cohort Study.

The clinical management of tuberculosis is a major challenge in southern Africa. The prevalence of within-host genetically heterogeneous Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and its effect on treatment response are not well understood. We enrolled 500 patients with tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal and followed them through 2 months of treatment. Using mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats genotyping to identify mycobacterial heterogeneity, we report the prevalence and evaluate the association of heterogeneity with treatment response. Upon initiation of treatment, 21.1% of participants harbored a heterogeneous M. tuberculosis infection; such heterogeneity was independently associated with a nearly 2-fold higher odds of persistent culture positivity after 2 months of treatment (adjusted odds ratio, 1.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-3.50).

Mycobacterium tuberculosis TlyA Protein Negatively Regulates T Helper (Th) 1 and Th17 Differentiation and Promotes Tuberculosis Pathogenesis.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of tuberculosis, is an ancient pathogen and a major cause of death worldwide. Although various virulence factors of M. tuberculosis have been identified, its pathogenesis remains incompletely understood. TlyA is a virulence factor in several bacterial infections and is evolutionarily conserved in many Gram-positive bacteria, but its function in M. tuberculosis pathogenesis has not been elucidated. Here, we report that TlyA significantly contributes to the pathogenesis of M. tuberculosis. We show that a TlyA mutant M. tuberculosis strain induces increased IL-12 and reduced IL-1ß and IL-10 cytokine responses, which sharply contrasts with the immune responses induced by wild type M. tuberculosis. Furthermore, compared with wild type M. tuberculosis, TlyA-deficient M. tuberculosis bacteria are more susceptible to autophagy in macrophages. Consequently, animals infected with the TlyA mutant M. tuberculosis organisms exhibited increased host-protective immune responses, reduced bacillary load, and increased survival compared with animals infected with wild type M. tuberculosis. Thus, M. tuberculosis employs TlyA as a host evasion factor, thereby contributing to its virulence.

Mechanisms of first-line antimicrobial resistance in multi-drug and extensively drug resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, drug resistant tuberculosis is a major public health crisis in the face of the colossal HIV pandemic. METHODS: In an attempt to understand the distribution of drug resistance in our setting, we analysed the rpoB, katG, inhA, pncA and embB genes associated with resistance to key drugs used in the treatment of tuberculosis in clinical isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the KwaZulu-Natal province. RESULTS: Classical mutations were detected in the katG, inhA and embB genes associated with resistance to isoniazid and ethambutol. Diverse mutations were recorded in the multidrug resistant (MDR) and extensively drug resistant (XDR) isolates for the rpoB and pncA gene associated with resistance to rifampicin and pyrazinamide. CONCLUSIONS: M.tuberculosis strains circulating in our setting display a combination of previously observed mutations, each mediating resistance to a different drug. The MDR and XDR TB isolates analysed in this study displayed classical mutations linked to INH and EMB resistance, whilst diverse mutations were linked to RIF and PZA resistance. The similarity of the XDR strains confirms reports of the clonality of the XDR epidemic. The successful dissemination of the drug resistant strains in the province underscores the need for rapid diagnostics to effectively diagnose drug resistance and guide treatment.

Simultaneous inhibition of T helper 2 and T regulatory cell differentiation by small molecules enhances Bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccine efficacy against tuberculosis.

Tuberculosis affects nine million individuals and kills almost two million people every year. The only vaccine available, Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG), has been used since its inception in 1921. Although BCG induces host-protective T helper 1 (Th1) cell immune responses, which play a central role in host protection, its efficacy is unsatisfactory, suggesting that additional methods to enhance protective immune responses are needed. Recently we have shown that simultaneous inhibition of Th2 cells and Tregs by using the pharmacological inhibitors suplatast tosylate and D4476, respectively, dramatically enhances Mycobacterium tuberculosis clearance and induces superior Th1 responses. Here we show that treatment with these two drugs during BCG vaccination dramatically improves vaccine efficacy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these drugs induce a shift in the development of T cell memory, favoring central memory T (Tcm) cell responses over effector memory T (Tem) cell responses. Collectively, our findings provide evidence that simultaneous inhibition of Th2 cells and Tregs during BCG vaccination promotes vaccine efficacy.

Isoniazid induces apoptosis of activated CD4+ T cells: implications for post-therapy tuberculosis reactivation and reinfection.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains the second highest killer from a single infectious disease worldwide. Current therapy of TB is lengthy and consists of multiple expensive antibiotics, in a strategy referred to as Directly Observed Treatment, Short Course (DOTS). Although this therapy is effective, it has serious disadvantages. These therapeutic agents are toxic and are associated with the development of a variety of drug-resistant TB strains. Furthermore, patients treated with DOTS exhibit enhanced post-treatment susceptibility to TB reactivation and reinfection, suggesting therapy-related immune impairment. Here we show that Isoniazid (INH) treatment dramatically reduces Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigen-specific immune responses, induces apoptosis in activated CD4(+) T cells, and renders treated animals vulnerable to TB reactivation and reinfection. Consequently, our findings suggest that TB treatment is associated with immune impairment.

Cervical ectopy: associations with sexually transmitted infections and HIV. A cross-sectional study of high school students in rural South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: It has been hypothesised that ectopy may be associated with increased susceptibility to sexually transmitted infections (STIs). In this cross-sectional study, we wanted to explore the association between STIs (including HIV) and cervical ectopy. METHODS: We included 700 sexually active young women attending randomly selected high schools in a rural district in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The district is endemic of HIV and has a high prevalence of STIs. We did computer-assisted measurements of the ectocervical area covered by columnar epithelium (ectopy) in colposcopic images and STI analyses on cervicovaginal lavage and serum samples. All participating women answered a questionnaire about sexual behaviour and use of contraceptives. RESULTS: The mean age was 19.1 years. Ectopy was found in 27.2%, HIV in 27.8%, chlamydia in 25.3% and gonorrhoea in 15.6%. We found that age, parity, chlamydia and gonorrhoea, years since menarche, years since sexual debut and number of sexual partners were associated with ectopy. In multivariate analysis with chlamydia infection as the dependent variable, women with ectopy had increased odds of having chlamydia infection (adjusted OR 1.78, p=0.033). In women under 19 years of age, we found twofold higher odds of being HIV-positive for those with ectopy (OR 2.19, p=0.014). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, cervical ectopy is associated with Chlamydia trachomatis infection and HIV in the youngest women.

High prevalence and incidence of asymptomatic sexually transmitted infections during pregnancy and postdelivery in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: We report the prevalence and incidence of 3 treatable sexually transmitted pathogens (Neiserria gonorrhoeae, Chlamydia trachomatis, and Trichomonas vaginalis) in women who were HIV infected or at high risk for HIV infection, in pregnancy and postpartum, respectively. METHOD: Vulvovaginal specimens collected at the first antenatal visit and again at 14 weeks postpartum were tested for N. gonorrhoeae, C. trachomatis, and T. vaginalis in the laboratory. Women were routinely tested for HIV-1 with a point-of-care test. RESULTS: Among 1480 women, 32.3% (95% confidence interval, 29.9-34.7) tested positive for any of the sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in pregnancy and 19.2% (95% confidence interval, 16.9-21.5) were positive when retested 14 weeks postpartum (incidence rate, 79.2 per 100 person-years). The prevalence of N. gonorrhoeae and T. vaginalis infections in pregnancy and the incidence rate of any STI at 14 weeks postpartum were significantly higher in HIV-1-infected women (P < 0.0001 amd P = 0.0079). More than 50% of N. gonorrhoeae, T. vaginalis, and C. trachomatis infections in pregnancy were asymptomatic. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of asymptomatic STIs in pregnancy is compelling evidence that demands the development and validation of point-of-care tests for STIs be expedited. In addition, the high incidence of STIs 3 months postpartum suggests that women in this study setting resume unprotected sexual intercourse soon after delivery.

Anti-dormant mycobacterial activity and target analysis of nybomycin produced by a marine-derived Streptomyces sp.

In the course of our search for anti-dormant Mycobacterial substances, nybomycin (1) was re-discovered from the culture broth of a marine-derived Streptomyces sp. on the bioassay-guided separation. Compound 1 showed anti-microbial activity against Mycobacterium smegmatis and Mycobacterium bovis BCG with the MIC of 1.0µg/mL under both actively growing aerobic conditions and dormancy inducing hypoxic conditions. Compound 1 is also effective to Mycobacterium tuberculosis including the clinically isolated strains. The mechanistic analysis indicated that 1 bound to DNA and induces a unique morphological change to mycobacterial bacilli leading the bacterial cell death.

Minimal diversity of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains, South Africa.

Multidrug- (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) are commonly associated with Beijing strains. However, in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, which has among the highest incidence and mortality for MDR and XDR TB, data suggest that non-Beijing strains are driving the epidemic. We conducted a retrospective study to characterize the strain prevalence among drug-susceptible, MDR, and XDR TB cases and determine associations between strain type and survival. Among 297 isolates from 2005-2006, 49 spoligotype patterns were found. Predominant strains were Beijing (ST1) among drug-susceptible isolates (27%), S/Quebec (ST34) in MDR TB (34%) and LAM4/KZN (ST60) in XDR TB (89%). More than 90% of patients were HIV co-infected. MDR TB and XDR TB were independently associated with mortality, but TB strain type was not. We conclude that, although Beijing strain was common among drug-susceptible TB, other strains predominated among MDR TB and XDR TB cases. Drug-resistance was a stronger predictor of survival than strain type.

A peptide fragment from the human COX3 protein disrupts association of Mycobacterium tuberculosis virulence proteins ESAT-6 and CFP10, inhibits mycobacterial growth and mounts protective immune response.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most prevalent infectious diseases affecting millions worldwide. The currently available anti-TB drugs and vaccines have proved insufficient to contain this scourge, necessitating an urgent need for identification of novel drug targets and therapeutic strategies. The disruption of crucial protein-protein interactions, especially those that are responsible for virulence in Mycobacterium tuberculosis - for example the ESAT-6:CFP10 complex - are a worthy pursuit in this direction. METHODS: We therefore sought to improvise a method to attenuate M. tuberculosis while retaining the latter's antigenic properties. We screened peptide libraries for potent ESAT-6 binders capable of dissociating CFP10 from ESAT-6. We assessed the disruption by a peptide named HCL2, of the ESAT-6:CFP10 complex and studied its effects on mycobacterial survival and virulence. RESULTS: We found that HCL2, derived from the human cytochrome c oxidase subunit 3 (COX3) protein, disrupts ESAT-6:CFP10 complex, binds ESAT-6 potently, disintegrates bacterial cell wall and inhibits extracellular as well as intracellular mycobacterial growth. In addition, an HCL2 expressing M. tuberculosis strain induces both Th1 and Th17 host protective responses. CONCLUSIONS: Disruption of ESAT-6:CFP10 association could, therefore, be an alternate method for attenuating M. tuberculosis, and a possible route towards future vaccine generation.

Intensified specimen collection to improve tuberculosis diagnosis in children from Rural South Africa, an observational study.

BACKGROUND: In drug-resistant TB settings, specimen collection is critical for drug-susceptibility testing (DST). This observational study included multiple specimen types collected from pediatric TB suspects with the aim to determine diagnostic yield and inform clinical practice in children with drug-resistant and drug-susceptible TB. METHODS: From 03/2009-07/2010, TB suspects aged ≥6 months and ≤12 years were recruited among outpatient and inpatient settings. Subjects were new TB suspects or had persistent symptoms despite ≥2 months of TB treatment. The protocol included collection of a single blood and urine specimen, a single sputum induction and, if inpatients and <5 years of age, collection of 3 gastric aspirates (GA). Samples were cultured on solid and/or liquid media. DST was by 1% proportion method. RESULTS: Among 118 children with possible, probable or confirmed TB, the mean age was 4.9 years [SD 3.2] and 64 (62%) of those tested were HIV-positive. Eight (7%) subjects were culture-positive from at least one specimen; yield did not differ by HIV status or TB treatment history. Among those with positive cultures, 7/8 (88%) were from induced sputum, 5/6 (83%) from GA, 3/8 (38%) from blood, and 3/7 (43%) from urine. In subjects with both induced sputum and GA collection, sputum provided one additional case compared to GA. Multidrug resistant (MDR)-TB was detected by urine culture alone in one child >5 years old. Pan-resistant extensively drug resistant (XDR)-TB was identified by cultures from all sites in one subject. CONCLUSIONS: TB was cultured from HIV-positive and -negative children, and allowed for identification of MDR and XDR-TB cases. Urine and induced sputum each provided an additional TB diagnosis and, when compared to GA, may be considered a less invasive, same-day method of specimen collection for childhood TB suspects. This study illustrates the continued challenges and limitations of available strategies for pediatric TB diagnostics.

Determinants of symptomatic vulvovaginal candidiasis among human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infected women in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: We sought to determine the association between HIV-induced immunosuppression, virologic correlates, and vulvovaginal candidiasis (VVC). METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study, where HIV infected and uninfected women were studied with VVC being the primary outcome. Ninety-seven HIV-infected and 101 HIV-uninfected women were enrolled between June and December 2011. Cases of VVC were confirmed. HIV RNA load was determined by RT-PCR and CD4 counts were obtained from medical records. RESULTS: Fifty-two of 97 (53.6%) HIV-infected and 38/101 (37.6%) HIV-uninfected women were diagnosed with VVC (P = 0.032). The relative risk for VVC amongst HIV-infected patients was 1.53 (95% CI: 1.04-2 P = 0.024). Cases of VVC increased at CD4+ T cell count below 200 cells/mm(3) (P < 0.0001) and plasma HIV RNA load above 10 000 copies/mL (P < 0.0001). VVC was associated with increased genital shedding of HIV (P = 0.002), and there was a linear correlation between plasma HIV load and genital HIV shedding (r = 0.540; R (2) = 0.292; P < 0.0001). Women on HAART were 4-fold less likely (P = 0.029) to develop VVC. CONCLUSION: CD4 counts below 200 cells/mm(3) and plasma HIV loads ≥10 000 copies/mL were significantly associated with VVC.

Nosocomial transmission of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in a rural hospital in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-tuberculosis) is a global public health threat, but few data exist elucidating factors driving this epidemic. The initial XDR-tuberculosis report from South Africa suggested transmission is an important factor, but detailed epidemiologic and molecular analyses were not available for further characterization. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, observational study among XDR-tuberculosis patients to identify hospital-associated epidemiologic links. We used spoligotyping, IS6110-based restriction fragment-length polymorphism analysis, and sequencing of resistance-determining regions to identify clusters. Social network analysis was used to construct transmission networks among genotypically clustered patients. RESULTS: Among 148 XDR-tuberculosis patients, 98% were infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and 59% had smear-positive tuberculosis. Nearly all (93%) were hospitalized while infectious with XDR-tuberculosis (median duration, 15 days; interquartile range: 10-25 days). Genotyping identified a predominant cluster comprising 96% of isolates. Epidemiologic links were identified for 82% of patients; social network analysis demonstrated multiple generations of transmission across a highly interconnected network. CONCLUSIONS: The XDR-tuberculosis epidemic in Tugela Ferry, South Africa, has been highly clonal. However, the epidemic is not the result of a point-source outbreak; rather, a high degree of interconnectedness allowed multiple generations of nosocomial transmission. Similar to the outbreaks of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in the 1990s, poor infection control, delayed diagnosis, and a high HIV prevalence facilitated transmission. Important lessons from those outbreaks must be applied to stem further expansion of this epidemic.

Population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of ofloxacin in South African patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

Despite the important role of fluoroquinolones and the predominant use of ofloxacin for treating multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in South Africa, there are limited data on ofloxacin pharmacokinetics in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, no ofloxacin pharmacokinetic data from South African patients, and no direct assessment of the relationship between ofloxacin pharmacokinetics and the MIC of ofloxacin of patient isolates. Our objectives are to describe ofloxacin pharmacokinetics in South African patients being treated for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis and assess the adequacy of ofloxacin drug exposure with respect to the probability of pharmacodynamic target attainment (area under the time curve/MIC ratio of at least 100). Sixty-five patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis were recruited from 2 hospitals in South Africa. We determined the ofloxacin MICs for the Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from baseline sputum specimens. Patients received daily doses of 800 mg ofloxacin, in addition to other antitubercular drugs. Patients underwent pharmacokinetic sampling at steady state. NONMEM was used for data analysis. The population pharmacokinetics of ofloxacin in this study has been adequately described. The probability of target attainment expectation in the study population was 0.45. Doubling the dose to 1,600 mg could increase this to only 0.77. The currently recommended ofloxacin dose appeared inadequate for the majority of this study population. Studies to assess the tolerability of higher doses are warranted. Alternatively, ofloxacin should be replaced with more potent fluoroquinolones.

Rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis and multidrug resistance by the microscopic-observation drug-susceptibility assay.

RATIONALE: Mortality is exceedingly high and rapid among patients infected with HIV and tuberculosis (TB), in part because of limited access to appropriate TB diagnostics. The microscopic observation drug-susceptibility (MODS) assay is a simple, rapid, low-cost test for TB and multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB, but data in individuals infected with HIV and in Africa are limited. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the MODS assay in a high-HIV-prevalence setting. METHODS: We performed a prospective diagnostic accuracy study of consecutive adults suspected to have TB from outpatient and inpatient settings at a district hospital in rural South Africa. Sputum was tested by concentrated smear microscopy; agar (Middlebrook 7H11) and liquid (mycobacterial growth indicator tube) culture; and the MODS assay. Drug-susceptibility testing (DST) was by indirect 1% proportion method and MODS. Reference standard for Mycobacterium tuberculosis detection was growth on Middlebrook or mycobacterial growth indicator tube culture; 1% proportion was the reference standard for isoniazid and rifampin DST. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 534 adults enrolled, 388 (73%) were HIV-positive, with a median CD4 count of 161 cells/mm(3) (interquartile range [IQR]: 72-307). TB was diagnosed by the reference standard culture in 113 (21%). MODS sensitivity was 85% (95% confidence interval [CI], 78-92%), and specificity was 97% (CI, 95-99%). MODS test performance did not differ by patients' HIV status (sensitivity 88% vs. 90%, specificity 97% vs. 100% for HIV-positive versus HIV-negative, respectively). For MDR-TB diagnosis (n = 11), sensitivity was 100% (one-sided CI, 68-100%) and specificity was 94% (CI, 82-98%). Median turnaround time for MDR-TB diagnosis was 7 days (IQR: 6-9) with MODS versus 70 days (IQR: 49-96) with indirect proportion method (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Among adult TB suspects predominantly infected with HIV, MODS provided high sensitivity and specificity for rapid diagnosis of TB and MDR-TB. Given the high mortality from TB and MDR-TB and prolonged opportunity for TB transmission before diagnosis, the MODS assay warrants serious consideration for use in similar high-HIV-prevalence, resource-limited settings.

Averting epidemics of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis.

Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) has been detected in most provinces of South Africa, particularly in the KwaZulu-Natal province where several hundred cases have been reported since 2004. We analyzed the transmission dynamics of XDR TB in the region using mathematical models, and observed that nosocomial transmission clusters of XDR TB may emerge into community-based epidemics under the public health conditions of many South African communities. The effective reproductive number of XDR TB in KwaZulu-Natal may be around 2. Intensified community-based case finding and therapy appears critical to curtailing transmission. In the setting of delayed disease presentation and high system demand, improved diagnostic approaches may need to be employed in community-based programs rather than exclusively at tertiary hospitals. Using branching process mathematics, we observed that early, community-based drug-susceptibility testing and effective XDR therapy could help curtail ongoing transmission and reduce the probability of XDR TB epidemics in neighboring territories.