Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence Threshold for Surveillance in Virologically Cured Hepatitis C Individuals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Guidelines recommend biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis if the HCC incidence rate is above 1.5 per 100 person-years (PY). However, the incidence threshold for surveillance in individuals who achieve a virologic cure is unknown. We estimated the HCC incidence rate above which routine HCC surveillance is cost-effective in this growing population of virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis. METHODS: We developed a Markov-based microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C who achieved virologic cure with oral direct-acting antivirals. We used published data on the natural history of hepatitis C, competing risk post virologic cure, HCC tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, contemporary HCC treatment options and associated costs, and utilities of different health states. We estimated the HCC incidence above which biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein would be cost-effective. RESULTS: In virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis, HCC surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.7 per 100 PY using $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year willingness-to-pay. At this HCC incidence, routine HCC surveillance would result in 2650 and 5700 additional life years per 100,000 cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis persons, respectively, compared with no surveillance. At $150,000 willingness-to-pay, surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.4 per 100 PY. Sensitivity analysis showed that the threshold mostly remained below 1.5 per 100 PY. CONCLUSIONS: The contemporary HCC incidence threshold is much lower than the previous 1.5% incidence value used to guide HCC surveillance decisions. Updating clinical guidelines could improve the early diagnosis of HCC.

A multimorbidity model for estimating health outcomes from the syndemic of injection drug use and associated infections in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Fatal drug overdoses and serious injection-related infections are rising in the US. Multiple concurrent infections in people who inject drugs (PWID) exacerbate poor health outcomes, but little is known about how the synergy among infections compounds clinical outcomes and costs. Injection drug use (IDU) converges multiple epidemics into a syndemic in the US, including opioid use and HIV. Estimated rates of new injection-related infections in the US are limited due to widely varying estimates of the number of PWID in the US, and in the absence of clinical trials and nationally representative longitudinal observational studies of PWID, simulation models provide important insights to policymakers for informed decisions. METHODS: We developed and validated a MultimorbiditY model to Reduce Infections Associated with Drug use (MYRIAD). This microsimulation model of drug use and associated infections (HIV, hepatitis C virus [HCV], and severe bacterial infections) uses inputs derived from published data to estimate national level trends in the US. We used Latin hypercube sampling to calibrate model output against published data from 2015 to 2019 for fatal opioid overdose rates. We internally validated the model for HIV and HCV incidence and bacterial infection hospitalization rates among PWID. We identified best fitting parameter sets that met pre-established goodness-of-fit targets using the Pearson's chi-square test. We externally validated the model by comparing model output to published fatal opioid overdose rates from 2020. RESULTS: Out of 100 sample parameter sets for opioid use, the model produced 3 sets with well-fitting results to key calibration targets for fatal opioid overdose rates with Pearson's chi-square test ranging from 1.56E-5 to 2.65E-5, and 2 sets that met validation targets. The model produced well-fitting results within validation targets for HIV and HCV incidence and serious bacterial infection hospitalization rates. From 2015 to 2019, the model estimated 120,000 injection-related overdose deaths, 17,000 new HIV infections, and 144,000 new HCV infections among PWID. CONCLUSIONS: This multimorbidity microsimulation model, populated with data from national surveillance data and published literature, accurately replicated fatal opioid overdose, incidence of HIV and HCV, and serious bacterial infections hospitalization rates. The MYRIAD model of IDU could be an important tool to assess clinical and economic outcomes related to IDU behavior and infections with serious morbidity and mortality for PWID.

Duration and cost-effectiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in hepatitis C patients after viral eradication.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Successful treatment of chronic hepatitis C with oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) leads to virological cure, however, the subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C and the optimal age to stop surveillance. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved virological cure with oral DAAs. We used published data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, and costs and utilities of different health states. We compared biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein for varying durations of surveillance (from 5 years to lifetime) vs. no surveillance. RESULTS: In virologically cured patients with cirrhosis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000 per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (range: $79,500-$94,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 70, irrespective of the starting age (40-65). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 130 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 51 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with cirrhosis. In virologically cured patients with advanced fibrosis, the ICER of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000/QALY (range: $124,600-$129,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 60, irrespective of the starting age (40-50). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 24 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 12 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with advanced fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C is cost-effective until the age of 70 for patients with cirrhosis, and until the age of 60 for patients with stable advanced fibrosis. LAY SUMMARY: Individuals who are cured of hepatitis C using oral antiviral drugs remain at risk of developing liver cancer. The value of lifelong screening for liver cancer in these individuals is not known. By simulating the life course of hepatitis C cured individuals, we found that ultrasound-based biannual screening for liver cancer is cost-effective up to age 70 in those with cirrhosis and up to age 60 in those with stable advanced fibrosis.

SAR Studies of the Leupyrrins: Design and Total Synthesis of Highly Potent Simplified Leupylogs.

Invited for the cover of this issue is the group of Dirk Menche at the University of Bonn. The image depicts the natural product leupyrrin A1 and a synthetic leupylog in balance on an IC50 weighing scale. Read the full text of the article at 10.1002/chem.202002622.

SAR Studies of the Leupyrrins: Design and Total Synthesis of Highly Potent Simplified Leupylogs.

Leupyrrins are highly potent antifungal agents. A structure-activity-relationship study of natural and synthetic derivatives is reported which reveals important insights into the biological relevance of several structural subunits leading to the discovery of highly potent but drastically simplified leupylogs that incorporate a stable and readily available aromatic side chain. For their synthesis a concise strategy is described that enables a short and versatile access.

Progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of a simulation model.

OBJECTIVES: To gain insight into the natural history and carcinogenesis pathway of Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (PanIN) lesions by building a calibrated simulation model of PanIN progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) METHODS: We revised a previously validated simulation model of solid PDAC, calibrating the model to fit data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published literature on PanIN prevalence by age. We estimated the likelihood of progression from PanIN states (1, 2, and 3) to PDAC and the time between PanIN onset and PDAC (dwell time). We evaluated a hypothetical intervention to test for and treat PanIN 3 lesions to estimate the potential benefits from PanIN detection. RESULTS: We estimated the lifetime probability of progressing from PanIN 1 to PDAC to be 1.5% (men), 1.3% (women). Progression from PanIN 1 to PDAC took 33.6 years and 35.3 years, respectively, and from PanIN 3 to PDAC took 11.3 years and 12.3 years. A hypothetical test for PanIN 3 detection and treatment could provide a maximum, average life expectancy gain of 40 days. CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling analysis estimates PanINs have a relatively indolent course to PDAC, supporting the feasibility of potential future early detection strategies.

Mesoporous silica films as a novel biomaterial: applications in the middle ear.

In this tutorial review we present the process of the development of functional implants using mesoporous silica. The different steps from chemical synthesis and physicochemical characterization followed by in vitro testing in cell culture assays to clinically relevant in vivo animal studies are examined. Since the end of the 1990s, mesoporous silicas have been considered as biomaterials. Numerous investigations have demonstrated their non-toxic and biocompatible properties. These qualities in combination with the unique properties of high surface area and pore volume, uniform and tunable pore sizes and chemical modifiability are the reasons for the great scientific interest in this field. Here we show that besides bulk materials or mesoporous silica nanoparticles, mesoporous silica films are highly promising as coatings on medical prostheses or implants. We report on the development of functionalized mesoporous silica materials specifically for middle ear applications. Middle ear prostheses are used to restore the sound transmission through this air-filled cavity when the small bones of the middle air (the ossicular chain) have been destroyed by disease or by accidents. In addition to optimal restoration of sound transmission, this technique bears several challenges, e.g. an ongoing bacterial infection or the displacement of the prosthesis due to insufficient fixation. To improve the healing process, a mesoporous silica coating was established on ceramic middle ear prostheses, which then served as a base for further functionalizations. For example, the bone growth factor BMP2 was locally attached to the coating in order to improve the fixation of the prosthesis by forming a bony connection to the remainder of the ear bones. Further, an implant-based local drug delivery system for the antibiotic ciprofloxacin was developed with the aim of fighting bacterial infections. Further possibilities using mesoporous silica nanoparticles as part of a composite on an implant are briefly discussed.

Functional inhibition of transitory proteins by intrabody-mediated retention in the endoplasmatic reticulum.

Intrabodies are recombinantly expressed intracellular antibody fragments that can be used to specifically bind and inhibit the function of cellular proteins of interest. Intrabodies can be targeted to various cell compartments by attaching an appropriate localization peptide sequence to them. An efficient strategy with a high success rate is to anchor intrabodies in the endoplasmatic reticulum where they can inhibit transitory target proteins by binding and preventing them to reach their site of action. Intrabodies can be assembled from antibody gene fragments from various sources into dedicated expression vectors. Conventionally, antibody cDNA sequences are derived from selected hybridoma cell clones that express antibodies with the desired specificity. Alternatively, appropriate clones can be isolated by affinity selection from an antibody in vitro display library. Here an evaluation of endoplasmatic reticulum targeted intrabodies with respect to other knockdown approaches is given and the characteristics of various intrabody expression vectors are discussed. A step by step protocol is provided that was repeatedly used to construct intrabodies derived from diverse antibody isotypes producing hybridoma cell clones. The inactivation of the cell surface receptor neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM) by a highly efficacious novel endoplasmatic reticulum-anchored intrabody is demonstrated.

Fluoride and calcium-phosphate coated sponges of the magnesium alloy AX30 as bone grafts: a comparative study in rabbits.

Biocompatibility and degradation of magnesium sponges (alloy AX30) with a fluoride (MgF(2) sponge, n = 24, porosity 63 ± 6 %, pore size 394 ± 26 µm) and with a fluoride and additional calcium-phosphate coating (CaP sponge, n = 24, porosity 6 ± 4 %, pore size 109 ± 37 µm) were evaluated over 6, 12 and 24 weeks in rabbit femurs. Empty drill holes (n = 12) served as controls. Clinical and radiological examinations, in vivo and ex vivo µ-computed tomographies and histological examinations were performed. Clinically both sponge types were tolerated well. Radiographs and XtremeCT evaluations showed bone changes comparable to controls and mild gas formation. The µCT80 depicted a higher and more inhomogeneous degradation of the CaP sponges. Histomorphometrically, the MgF(2) sponges resulted in the highest bone and osteoid fractions and were integrated superiorly into the bone. Histologically, the CaP sponges showed more inflammation and lower vascularization. MgF(2) sponges turned out to be better biocompatible and promising, biodegradable bone replacements.

Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths With Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 US States.

Importance: In 2021, more than 80 000 US residents died from an opioid overdose. Public health intervention initiatives, such as the Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEALing) Communities Study (HCS), are being launched with the goal of reducing opioid-related overdose deaths (OODs). Objective: To estimate the change in the projected number of OODs under different scenarios of the duration of sustainment of interventions, compared with the status quo. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model simulated the opioid epidemic in the 4 states participating in the HCS (ie, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio) from 2020 to 2026. Participants were a simulated population transitioning from opioid misuse to opioid use disorder (OUD), overdose, treatment, and relapse. The model was calibrated using 2015 to 2020 data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other sources for each state. The model accounts for reduced initiation of medications for OUD (MOUDs) and increased OODs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Exposure: Increasing MOUD initiation by 2- or 5-fold, improving MOUD retention to the rates achieved in clinical trial settings, increasing naloxone distribution efforts, and furthering safe opioid prescribing. An initial 2-year duration of interventions was simulated, with potential sustainment for up to 3 additional years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected reduction in number of OODs under different combinations and durations of sustainment of interventions. Results: Compared with the status quo, the estimated annual reduction in OODs at the end of the second year of interventions was 13% to 17% in Kentucky, 17% to 27% in Massachusetts, 15% to 22% in New York, and 15% to 22% in Ohio. Sustaining all interventions for an additional 3 years was estimated to reduce the annual number of OODs at the end of the fifth year by 18% to 27% in Kentucky, 28% to 46% in Massachusetts, 22% to 34% in New York, and 25% to 41% in Ohio. The longer the interventions were sustained, the better the outcomes; however, these positive gains would be washed out if interventions were not sustained. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical model study of the opioid epidemic in 4 US states, sustained implementation of interventions, including increased delivery of MOUDs and naloxone supply, was found to be needed to reduce OODs and prevent deaths from increasing again.

Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions.

Importance: A key question for policy makers and the public is what to expect from the COVID-19 pandemic going forward as states lift nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs), such as indoor mask mandates, to prevent COVID-19 transmission. Objective: To project COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and NPIs. Design Setting and Participants: This simulation modeling study used the COVID-19 Policy Simulator compartmental model to project COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, using simulated populations in the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Projected current epidemiologic trends for each state until December 31, 2022, assuming the current pace of vaccination is maintained into the future and modeling different dates of lifting NPIs. Exposures: Date of lifting statewide NPI mandates as March 1, April 1, May 1, June 1, or July 1, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected COVID-19 incident deaths from March to December 2022. Results: With the high transmissibility of current circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, the simulated lifting of NPIs in March 2022 was associated with resurgences of COVID-19 deaths in nearly every state. In comparison, delaying by even 1 month to lift NPIs in April 2022 was estimated to mitigate the amplitude of the surge. For most states, however, no amount of delay was estimated to be sufficient to prevent a surge in deaths completely. The primary factor associated with recurrent epidemics in the simulation was the assumed high effective reproduction number of unmitigated viral transmission. With a lower level of transmissibility similar to those of the ancestral strains, the model estimated that most states could remove NPIs in March 2022 and likely not see recurrent surges. Conclusions and Relevance: This simulation study estimated that the SARS-CoV-2 virus would likely continue to take a major toll in the US, even as cases continued to decrease. Because of the high transmissibility of the recent Delta and Omicron variants, premature lifting of NPIs could pose a substantial threat of rebounding surges in morbidity and mortality. At the same time, continued delay in lifting NPIs may not prevent future surges.

What is the prevalence of and trend in opioid use disorder in the United States from 2010 to 2019? Using multiplier approaches to estimate prevalence for an unknown population size.

Opioid-related overdose deaths have increased since 2010 in the U.S., but information on trends in opioid use disorder (OUD) prevalence is limited due to unreliable data. Multiplier methods are a classical epidemiological technique to estimate prevalence when direct estimation is infeasible or unreliable. We used two different multiplier approaches to estimate OUD prevalence from 2010 to 2019. First, we estimated OUD in National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), and based on existing capture-recapture studies, multiplied prevalence by 4.5x. Second, we estimated the probability of drug poisoning death among people with OUD (Meta-analysis indicates 0.52/100,000), and divided the number of drug poisoning deaths in the US by this probability. Estimates were weighted to account for increase in drug-related mortality in recent years due to fentanyl. Estimated OUD prevalence was lowest when estimated in NSDUH with no multiplier, and highest when estimated from vital statistics data without adjustment. Consistent findings emerged with two methods: NSDUH data with multiplier correction, and vital statistics data with multiplier and adjustment. From these two methods, OUD prevalence increased from 2010 to 2014; then stabilized and slightly declined annually (survey data with multiplier, highest prevalence of 4.0% in 2015; death data with a multiplier and correction, highest prevalence of 2.35% in 2016). The number of US adolescent and adult individuals with OUD in 2019 was estimated between 6.7-7.6 million. When multipliers and corrections are used, OUD may have stabilized or slightly declined after 2015. Nevertheless, it remains highly prevalent, affecting 6-7 million US adolescents and adults.

A clash of epidemics: Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic response on opioid overdose.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will have a lasting impact on public health. In addition to the direct effects of COVID-19 infection, physical distancing and quarantine interventions have indirect effects on health. While necessary, physical distancing interventions to control the spread of COVID-19 could have multiple impacts on people living with opioid use disorder, including impacts on mental health that lead to greater substance use, the availability of drug supply, the ways that people use drugs, treatment-seeking behaviors, and retention in care. The degree to which COVID-19 will impact the opioid epidemic and through which of the possible mechanisms that we discuss is important to monitor. We employed simulation modeling to demonstrate the potential impact of physical distancing on overdose mortality.

Evidence for inoculum size and gas interfaces as critical factors in bacterial biofilm formation on magnesium implants in an animal model.

Infections of medical implants caused by bacterial biofilms are a major clinical problem. Bacterial colonization is predicted to be prevented by alkaline magnesium surfaces. However, in experimental animal studies, magnesium implants prolonged infections. The reason for this peculiarity likely lies within the ‒still largely hypothetical‒ mechanism by which infection arises. Investigating subcutaneous magnesium implants infected with bioluminescent Pseudomonas aeruginosa via in vivo imaging, we found that the rate of implant infections was critically dependent on a surprisingly high quantity of injected bacteria. At high inocula, bacteria were antibiotic-refractory immediately after infection. High cell densities are known to limit nutrient availability, restricting proliferation and trigger quorum sensing which could both contribute to the rapid initial resistance. We propose that gas bubbles such as those formed during magnesium corrosion, can then act as interfaces that support biofilm formation and permit long-term survival. This model could provide an explanation for the apparent ineffectiveness of innovative contact-dependent bactericidal implant surfaces in patients. In addition, the model points toward air bubbles in tissue, either by inclusion during surgery or by spontaneous gas bubble formation later on, could constitute a key risk factor for clinical implant infections.

Non-Invasive Luciferase Imaging of Type I Interferon Induction in a Transgenic Mouse Model of Biomaterial Associated Bacterial Infections: Microbial Specificity and Inter-Bacterial Species Interactions.

The performance of biomaterials is often compromised by bacterial infections and subsequent inflammation. So far, the conventional analysis of inflammatory processes in vivo involves time-consuming histology and biochemical assays. The present study employed a mouse model where interferon beta (IFN-ß) is monitored as a marker for non-invasive rapid detection of inflammation in implant-related infections. The mouse model comprises subcutaneous implantation of morphologically modified titanium, followed by experimental infections with four taxonomically diverse oral bacteria: Streptococcus oralis, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis and Treponema denticola (as mono culture or selected mixed-culture). IFN-ß expression increased upon infections depending on the type of pathogen and was prolonged by the presence of the implant. IFN-ß expression kinetics reduced with two mixed species infections when compared with the single species. Histological and confocal microscopy confirmed pathogen-specific infiltration of inflammatory cells at the implant-tissue interface. This was observed mainly in the vicinity of infected implants and was, in contrast to interferon expression, higher in infections with dual species. In summary, this non-invasive mouse model can be used to quantify longitudinally host inflammation in real time and suggests that the polymicrobial character of infection, highly relevant to clinical situations, has complex effects on host immunity.

Innate immune responses in NF-kappaB-repressing factor-deficient mice.

NF-kappaB-repressing factor (NRF) is a transcriptional silencer protein that specifically counteracts the basal activity of several NF-kappaB-dependent promoters by direct binding to specific neighboring DNA sequences. In cell culture experiments, the reduction of NRF mRNA leads to a derepression of beta interferon, interleukin-8, and inducible nitric oxide synthase transcription. The X chromosome-located single-copy NRF gene is ubiquitously expressed and encodes a protein of 690 amino acids. The N-terminal part contains a nuclear localization signal, the DNA-binding domain, and the NF-kappaB-repressing domain, while the C-terminal part is responsible for double-stranded RNA binding and nucleolar localization. To study the function of NRF in a systemic context, transgenic mice lacking the NRF gene were created. Against predictions from in vitro experiments, mice with a deletion of the NRF gene are viable and have a phenotype that is indistinguishable from wild-type mice, even after challenge with different pathogens. The data hint towards an unexpected functional redundancy of NRF.

Free Bioverit II implants coated with a nanoporous silica layer in a mouse ear model-- a histological study.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the suitability of a mouse middle ear model for testing ossicular replacement materials. Twenty-four BALB/c mice are implanted with the bioglass-ceramic Bioverit II which is coated with a silica-nanostructure or with plain Bioverit II as a control. After 2, 6, and 12 weeks, 4 mice per group are sacrificed and both complete petrous bones are analyzed histologically. All implants revealed in situ an incipient growth of thin connective tissue layers over the surface, followed by a spreading of epithelial cells. The osseogenic response which is increasing with time is more intense in the coated Bioverit II specimens. The absence of inflammatory cells suggests an excellent biocompatibility of the silica nano structure. As the results are comparable to a study with the same materials in rabbits, the mouse model described is highly suitable for evaluation of new ossicular replacement materials. Additionally, by gene expression analysis a more detailed insight into cellular interactions of the middle ear is offered.

A biomechanical ear model to evaluate middle-ear reconstruction.

In order to evaluate the efficiency of middle-ear prostheses in near-real conditions, an artificial model was developed that approximately simulates the actual geometrical and biomechanical properties of the ear system (excluding the ossicular chain). The sound transmission characteristics of selected commercial middle-ear prostheses and of a synthetic test material were measured using laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV) in this model. The model's realistic properties enabled clinical tympanometry to be used to control the stiffness. In addition the influences of the implant mass on transmission characteristics were investigated. With an averaged displacement between 10 and 100 nm/Pa up to 2000 Hz, the transmission characteristic of the model was comparable with data obtained from the intact middle ear in temporal bone experiments. From the acoustical point of view, no significant material-specific differences could be found. Increasing the mass of the implants to more than 50 mg results in poorer acoustic transmission. In general, changes to the stiffness involving compliance values greater than 3.5 ml and smaller than 0.2 ml led to poorer acoustic transmission.

Common signatures for gene expression in postnatal patients with patent arterial ducts and stented arteries.

The detailed molecular processes associated with postnatal remodelling of blood vessels are presently not understood. To characterize the response of the patients undergoing stenting of the patent arterial duct, we harvested samples of vascular tissue during surgical repair. Histological analysis of explanted ducts confirmed the patency of the ducts immediately after birth. As expected, a previously unstented duct that was examined 7 months after birth had become closed and ligamentous. Whole genome expression profiling of these samples showed that a large fraction, over 10%, of the gene sequences examined were expressed differentially between the samples taken from patients with open as opposed to the ligamentous duct. Interestingly, in 2 patients in whom closure was prevented by insertion of stents, one showed an expression profile that was similar to that of the patient initially having an unstented open duct, whereas the other was more closely related to the profile of the patient with a duct that had become ligamentous. Moreover, in 2 specimens obtained from patients with stented pulmonary arteries, a large fraction of the genes that were differentially expressed were identical to the pattern seen in the samples from the patients with open ducts. The gene regulation appeared to be independent of the nature of the respective malformations, and the site of implantation of the stents. These findings suggest that a set of differentially expressed genes are indicative for a transcriptional programme in neonatal remodelling of the arterial duct, which may also take place in patients in whom ductal closure is prevented by stents, or in those with stented pulmonary arteries. The differentially expressed genes included a significant number of extracellular matrix synthetic genes, and could therefore be predictive for vascular remodelling and neointimal formation.