Factors Related to Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 during the Early Phase of the Pandemic in Japan: An Observational Study Using the Osaka Prefectural Novel Coronavirus Response Status Management System.

Introduction: Elucidating the epidemiological picture in the early phase of a pandemic is crucial to strengthening preparedness and public health responses to future emerging infectious diseases. Using data from the "Osaka Prefectural Novel Coronavirus Response Status Management System," we evaluated factors associated with mortality among patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Osaka Prefecture, Japan. Methods: The study periods were from January 29 to June 13, 2020 (first surge), from June 14 to October 9, 2020 (second surge), and from October 10 to December 24, 2020 (up to the middle of the third surge). The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for mortality were calculated using logistic regression models. Results: Of the 14,864 patients with COVID-19 (8,207 men, 6,657 women) registered, 297 (2%) died. The ORs for mortality were significantly higher in men (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.54-2.60) than in women, in 70- to 79-year-olds (OR = 25.4, 95% CI = 16.8-38.2) and ≥80-year-olds (OR = 78.1, 95% CI = 53.3-114) than in 0- to 69-year-olds (P for trend < 0.001), and in those with underlying diseases (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.34-2.27) than in those without. The ORs for the second surge (OR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.31-0.57) and third surge (OR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.29-0.58) decreased compared with the first surge. Detailed evaluation of underlying diseases by time period showed that "Diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs and certain disorders involving immune mechanisms," "Endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases," "Diseases of the genitourinary system," and "Diseases of the respiratory system" were associated with increased risk of mortality. Conclusions: Among those affected early in the COVID-19 epidemic, male sex, older age, first-surge infection, and underlying medical conditions were significantly associated with mortality. Our findings are expected to provide a useful reference for future countermeasures in the early stages of pandemics involving unknown emerging infectious diseases.

Factors impacting antibody kinetics, including fever and vaccination intervals, in SARS-CoV-2-naïve adults receiving the first four mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses.

To evaluate the antibody response following the initial four doses of mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) in SARS-CoV-2-naïve healthy adults and investigate factors influencing antibody titer increases, this prospective cohort study was conducted in Japan from March 2021. The study included participants who received either the 1st and 2nd doses (n = 467), 3rd dose (n = 157), or 4th dose (n = 89). Blood samples were collected before and up to 6 months after each dose, and anti-receptor-binding domain antibody levels were measured. Multivariate analysis (usin multiple linear regression or linear mixed models) revealed several factors significantly associated with higher post-vaccination antibody levels, including mRNA-1273 vaccine (after the 1st and 2nd dose), male gender (after the 3rd and 4th doses), younger age (after the 1st and 2nd dose), non-smoking status (after the 2nd dose), non-use of immunosuppressive agents (after the 1st dose), higher pre-vaccination antibody titers (after the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th doses), and higher post-vaccination fever (after the 2nd and 4th doses). Furthermore, longer intervals since the last dose were significantly associated with higher antibody levels after the 3rd and 4th doses. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing vaccination strategies.

No association between inactivated influenza vaccination and influenza viral load at diagnosis among young Japanese children: An observational study of the 2013/2014 through 2017/2018 influenza seasons.

BACKGROUND: The association between inactivated influenza vaccination and viral load in young children remains unclear. METHODS: During the 2013/2014 to 2017/2018 influenza seasons in Japan, children under 6 years of age with pre-defined influenza-like illness and influenza-positive status by real-time RT-PCR were recruited at pediatric clinics for this observational study. Influenza viral load was measured for the most predominant subtype/lineage in each season. Using median dichotomized viral load as an outcome, a multilevel logistic regression model was applied to estimate the multivariable adjusted odds ratio (MOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for higher viral load. RESULTS: A total of 1,185 influenza-positive children were analyzed. The median log10 viral load copy number (copies per milliliter) was 5.5 (interquartile range, 4.6 to 6.1) and did not differ by vaccination status: 5.5 for unvaccinated, 5.7 for one dose, and 5.5 for two doses (p = 0.67). The MOR of vaccinated (one or two doses) versus unvaccinated children was 1.19 (95% CI: 0.86-1.64). Other factors showing significant associations with higher viral load were positive results for A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in comparison with B/Yamagata. The respective MORs were 3.25 (95% CI: 2.28-4.64) and 1.81 (95% CI: 1.32-2.49). Significantly elevated MORs against higher viral load were also observed for higher body temperature at influenza diagnosis and shorter duration from fever onset to specimen collection. CONCLUSION: No association was observed between inactivated-influenza vaccination and viral load at influenza-positive diagnosis. Influenza subtype/lineage, body temperature, and time elapsed since fever onset were significantly associated with viral load.

Antibody responses after BNT162b2 vaccination in Japanese geriatric intermediate care facilities.

Background: To evaluate antibody responses against the primary series of vaccination of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 [SARS-CoV-2] vaccines in the staff and residents of Japanese geriatric intermediate care facilities. Methods: All subjects (159 staff and 96 residents) received two doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine 3 weeks apart. Baseline data of subject were collected using a structured form. Serum samples were collected three times: before vaccination, 3 weeks after the first dose, and 4 weeks after the second dose, and anti-receptor binding domain of the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 [anti-RBD] IgG was measured using two immunoassays. Results: After the second dose, geometric mean titers [GMT] of anti-RBD with both the Abbott and Roche assay were significantly lower in residents than staff (2282 AU/mL vs. 8505 AU/mL, and 258 U/mL vs. 948 U/mL, respectively). Multivariate analysis of characteristics affecting antibody responses (≥1280 AU/mL for Abbott and > 210 U/mL for Roche) showed lower odds ratios [ORs] for older age (adjusted OR per 10 year increase [aOR] = 0.62, 95 % confidence interval [95 %CI]; 0.38-1.02), steroid usage (aOR = 0.09, 95 %CI; 0.01-0.60) and regular nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs [NSAIDs] usage (aOR = 0.16, 95 %CI; 0.03-0.88). Conclusions: Elderly people and steroid and NSAID users had lower antibody responses following the second vaccine dose.

Kinetics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titer in healthy adults up to 6 months after BNT162b2 vaccination measured by two immunoassays: A prospective cohort study in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Although several assays are used to measure anti-receptor-binding domain (RBD) antibodies induced after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination, the assays are not fully comparable in practice. This study evaluated the immunogenicity of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in healthy adults using two immunoassays. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included SARS-CoV-2-naïve adults, predominantly healthcare workers, aged 20-64 years, who received two BNT162b2 vaccine doses between March and May 2021. Blood samples were collected before the first vaccination (S0), before the second vaccination (S1), 4 weeks after the second vaccination (S2), and 6 months after the second vaccination (S3). anti-RBD antibodies were measured using the Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG II Quant (Abbott Laboratory) and Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 S (Roche Diagnostics) assays. RESULTS: Among the 385 participants, the geometric mean antibody titers (GMTs) on the Architect assay (AU/mL) were 7.5, 693, 7007, and 1030 for S0, S1, S2, and S3, respectively. The corresponding GMTs on the Elecsys assay (U/mL) were 0.40, 24, 928, and 659, respectively. The GMT ratio (S3/S2) was 0.15 on the Architect and 0.71 on the Elecsys assay. The correlation between antibody titers measured with the two assays were strong at all time points after vaccination (Spearman's correlation coefficient: 0.74 to 0.86, P < 0.01 for all). GMT was significantly lower in the older age group after vaccination (P < 0.01), with no significant differences according to sex. Seroprotection (≥5458 AU/mL on the Architect assay and ≥ 753 U/mL on the Elecsys) at each time point was 0 %, 1 %, 67 %, and 1 % on the Architect assay and 0 %, 1 %, 62 %, and 43 % on the Elecsys, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Two BNT162b2 vaccine doses resulted in adequate anti-RBD antibody response, which varied by age. As the two assays showed different kinetics, the results of single immunoassays should be interpreted with caution.