Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation.

Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes.

Use of data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System optional diabetes module by states.

An optional diabetes module of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System was first made available to states in 1993. In 2002, 49 states administered this module. In October 2001 we asked state Diabetes Prevention and Control Program coordinators to complete a two-part questionnaire regarding the use of data from the diabetes module and their usefulness in guiding programmatic activities. Seventy percent of state coordinators reported using data from at least one module question to perform program evaluation, develop publications, and development of community interventions; 45 percent of coordinators used data from at least one module question for activities related to passage of legislation. Questions on self monitoring of blood glucose, hemoglobin A1c test, annual foot exam, annual dilated eye exam, and diabetes education were rated as highly useful by the state coordinators. The results from the optional diabetes module are widely used by states and are essential to Diabetes Prevention and Control Program activities. It is important that the optional diabetes module continue to be included in each state's yearly Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

Implementing program evaluation and accountability for population health: progress of a national diabetes control effort.

Diabetes affects some 16 million Americans at a cost estimated at $100 billion. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention funds a diabetes control program (DCP) in every state as part of the National Diabetes Control Program (NDCP). In 1999, a new policy added emphasis on evaluation and made NDCP and its DCPs accountable for achieving impacts related to the health of populations with diabetes. The article reports on the experiences of the NDCP in implementing a performance-based program evaluation paradigm. It also discusses potential future directions for national diabetes-control efforts.