Risk calculator for incident atrial fibrillation across a range of prediction horizons.

BACKGROUND: The increasing burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) emphasizes the need to identify high-risk individuals for enrolment in clinical trials of AF screening and primary prevention. We aimed to develop prediction models to identify individuals at high-risk of AF across prediction horizons from 6-months to 10-years. METHODS: We used secondary-care linked primary care electronic health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset between January 2, 1998 and November 30, 2018; randomly divided into derivation (80%) and validation (20%) datasets. Models were derived using logistic regression from known AF risk factors for incident AF in prediction periods of 6 months, 1-year, 2-years, 5-years, and 10-years. Performance was evaluated using in the validation dataset with bootstrap validation with 200 samples, and compared against the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores. RESULTS: Of 2,081,139 individuals in the cohort (1,664,911 in the development dataset, 416,228 in the validation dataset), the mean age was 49.9 (SD 15.4), 50.7% were women, and 86.7% were white. New cases of AF were 7,386 (0.4%) within 6 months, 15,349 (0.7%) in 1 year, 38,487 (1.8%) in 5 years, and 79,997 (3.8%) by 10 years. Valvular heart disease and heart failure were the strongest predictors, and association of hypertension with AF increased at longer prediction horizons. The optimal risk models incorporated age, sex, ethnicity, and 8 comorbidities. The models demonstrated good-to-excellent discrimination and strong calibration across prediction horizons (AUROC, 95%CI, calibration slope: 6-months, 0.803, 0.789-0.821, 0.952; 1-year, 0.807, 0.794-0.819, 0.962; 2-years, 0.815, 0.807-0.823, 0.973; 5-years, 0.807, 0.803-0.812, 1.000; 10-years 0.780, 0.777-0.784, 1.010), and superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores. The models are available as a web-based FIND-AF calculator. CONCLUSIONS: The FIND-AF models demonstrate high discrimination and calibration across short- and long-term prediction horizons in 2 million individuals. Their utility to inform trial enrolment and clinical decisions for AF screening and primary prevention requires further study.

Sex Differences in Cardiovascular Disease-Related Hospitalization and Mortality in Japan　- Analysis of Health Records From a Nationwide Claim-Based Database, the Japanese Registry of All Cardiac and Vascular Disease (JROAD).

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is rising in Japan with its aging population, but there is a lack of epidemiological data on sex differences in CVD, including acute coronary syndrome (ACS), acute heart failure (AHF), and acute aortic disease.Methods and Results: This retrospective study analyzed data from 1,349,017 patients (January 2012-December 2020) using the Japanese Registry Of All Cardiac and Vascular Diseases database. ACS patients were youngest on average (70.5±12.9 years) and had the lowest female proportion (28.9%). AHF patients had the oldest mean age (79.7±12.0 years) and the highest proportion of females (48.0%). Acute aortic disease had the highest in-hospital mortality (26.1%), followed by AHF (11.5%) and ACS (8.9%). Sex-based mortality differences were notable in acute aortic disease, with higher male mortality in Stanford Type A acute aortic dissection (AAD) with surgery (males: 14.2% vs. females: 10.4%, P<0.001) and similar rates in Type B AAD (males: 6.2% vs. females: 7.9%, P=0.52). Aging was a universal risk factor for in-hospital mortality. Female sex was a risk factor for ACS and acute aortic disease but not for AHF or Types A and B AAD. CONCLUSIONS: Sex-based disparities in the CVD-related hospitalization and mortality within the Japanese national population have been highlighted for the first time, indicating the importance of sex-specific strategies in the management and understanding of these conditions.

Temporal trends of cause-specific mortality after diagnosis of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Reports of outcomes after atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosis are conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality and hospitalization rates following AF diagnosis over time, by cause and by patient features. METHODS: Individuals aged ≥16 years with a first diagnosis of AF were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset from 1 January 2001, to 31 December 2017. The primary outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality and hospitalization at 1 year following diagnosis. Poisson regression was used to calculate rate ratios (RRs) for mortality and incidence RRs (IRRs) for hospitalization and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing 2001/02 and 2016/17, adjusted for age, sex, region, socio-economic status, and 18 major comorbidities. RESULTS: Of 72 412 participants, mean (standard deviation) age was 75.6 (12.4) years, and 44 762 (61.8%) had ≥3 comorbidities. All-cause mortality declined (RR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 0.72; 95% CI 0.65-0.80), with large declines for cardiovascular (RR 0.46; 95% CI 0.37-0.58) and cerebrovascular mortality (RR 0.41; 95% CI 0.29-0.60) but not for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes of death (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.80-1.04). In 2016/17, deaths caused from dementia (67, 8.0%), outstripped deaths from acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and acute stroke combined (56, 6.7%, P < .001). Overall hospitalization rates increased (IRR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.22), especially for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes (IRR 1.42; 95% CI 1.39-1.45). Older, more deprived, and hospital-diagnosed AF patients experienced higher event rates. CONCLUSIONS: After AF diagnosis, cardio/cerebrovascular mortality and hospitalization has declined, whilst hospitalization for non-cardio/cerebrovascular disease has increased.

Developing a Stroke Risk Prediction Model Using Cardiovascular Risk Factors: The Suita Study.

INTRODUCTION: Stroke remains a major cause of death and disability in Japan and worldwide. Detecting individuals at high risk for stroke to apply preventive approaches is recommended. This study aimed to develop a stroke risk prediction model among urban Japanese using cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: We followed 6,641 participants aged 30-79 years with neither a history of stroke nor coronary heart disease. The Cox proportional hazard model estimated the risk of stroke incidence adjusted for potential confounders at the baseline survey. The model's performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. The internal validity of the risk model was tested using derivation and validation samples. Regression coefficients were used for score calculation. RESULTS: During a median follow-up duration of 17.1 years, 372 participants developed stroke. A risk model including older age, current smoking, increased blood pressure, impaired fasting blood glucose and diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and atrial fibrillation predicted stroke incidence with an area under the curve = 0.76 and p value of the goodness of fit = 0.21. This risk model was shown to be internally valid (p value of the goodness of fit in the validation sample = 0.64). On a risk score from 0 to 26, the incidence of stroke for the categories 0-5, 6-7, 8-9, 10-11, 12-13, 14-15, and 16-26 was 1.1%, 2.1%, 5.4%, 8.2%, 9.0%, 13.5%, and 18.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: We developed a new stroke risk model for the urban general population in Japan. Further research to determine the clinical practicality of this model is required.

Utilization of Anticoagulant and Antiplatelet Agents Among Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention　- Retrospective Cohort Study Using a Nationwide Claims Database in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The European Society of Cardiology recommends a risk-based antithrombotic strategy for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) based on CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores. However, because it is unclear if that strategy can be generalized to Asians, we aimed to describe antithrombotic therapies among Japanese patients.Methods and Results:Using a nationwide claims database in Japan, this retrospective cohort study identified AF patients who underwent PCI from April 1, 2014 to March 31, 2015. The primary outcome was utilization of anticoagulant and antiplatelet agents before PCI, at discharge, and 6, 9, and 12 months after PCI. The secondary outcome was incidence of stroke after PCI. We identified 10,862 patients and 87.5% of them had high CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores. There were no significant differences in antithrombotic therapies across the risk strata. More than 30% of patients at high risk of thrombosis did not receive oral anticoagulant prescriptions at discharge. The hazard ratio of incidence of stroke in patients with prior stroke compared with patients without prior stroke was 9.09 (95% confidence interval 7.86-10.50, P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Among Japanese AF patients who underwent PCI, prescriptions for antiplatelet agents were more common than those for anticoagulant agents. The majority of study participants were classified as high risk, suggesting a need for a new risk classification that reflects the risk profiles of Japanese patients.

Development of a Basic Risk Score for Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a Japanese General Population　- The Suita Study.

BACKGROUND: An atrial fibrillation (AF) risk score for a non-Western general population has not been established.Methods and Results:A total of 6,898 participants (30-79 years old) initially free of AF have been prospectively followed for incident AF since 1989. AF was diagnosed when AF or atrial flutter was present on ECG at a biannual health examination; was indicated as a current illness; or was in the medical records during follow-up. Cox proportional hazard ratios were analyzed after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors at baseline. During the 95,180 person-years of follow-up, 311 incident AF events occurred. We developed a scoring system for each risk factor as follows: 0/-5, 3/0, 7/5, and 9/9 points for men/women in their 30 s-40 s, 50 s, 60 s, and 70 s, respectively; 2 points for systolic hypertension, overweight, excessive drinking, or coronary artery disease; 1 point for current smoking; -1 point for moderate non-high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol; 4 points for arrhythmia; and 8, 6, and 2 points for subjects with cardiac murmur in their 30 s-40 s, 50 s, and 60 s, respectively (C-statistic 0.749; 95% confidence interval, 0.724-0.774). Individuals with score ≤2, 10-11, or ≥16 points had, respectively, ≤1%, 9%, and 27% observed probability of developing AF in 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a 10-year risk score for incident AF using traditional risk factors that are easily obtained in routine outpatient clinics/health examinations without ECG.

Effects of nocturnal oxygen therapy in patients with chronic heart failure and central sleep apnea: CHF-HOT study.

It was previously reported that nocturnal home oxygen therapy (HOT) significantly improved not only sleep disordered breathing (SDB), but also quality of life (QOL) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in two trials. To strengthen the statistical reliability of the above efficacies of HOT and to assess the effects of 12-week nocturnal HOT on suppression of ventricular arrhythmias, we combined the two trials and undertook a post hoc analysis. Ninety-seven patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) and central sleep apnea were assigned to receive HOT (45 patients) or not (52 patients). HOT resulted in greater reduction in the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) (-11.4 ± 11.0 vs. -0.2 ± 7.6 events/h, p < 0.01), which is associated with greater improvement in the Specific Activity Scale (0.8 ± 1.2 vs. 0.0 ± 0.6, p < 0.01), New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class (p < 0.01), and LVEF (p = 0.06). Median number of premature ventricular contraction (PVC) at baseline was 17 beats per hour in both the HOT and the control groups. Overall improvements of PVCs were not different either in the HOT group or in the control. However, in 12 patients with NYHA >III and AHI >20 events/h, PVC was significantly improved by HOT with a marked reduction in AHI and a substantial increase in LVEF. In conclusion, among patients with CHF and CSA, HOT improves SDB, QOL, and cardiac function. The effectiveness of HOT for ventricular arrhythmias was not observed in the overall analysis, but only in a limited number of patients with severe CHF and SDB. To clarify the effects of HOT on ventricular arrhythmias in patients with CHF and SDB, a further study is needed.

Changes in Waist Circumference and the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Community-Dwelling Men and Women: The Suita Study.

BACKGROUNDS: The association between weight gain and the incidence of type 2 diabetes is well known. The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship between change in waist circumference (WC) and type 2 diabetes incidence. METHODS: The participants in the Suita Study, a population-based cohort study in an urban area of Japan, underwent a baseline survey between 1989 and 1994 (Exam 1) and were examined at follow-up every 2 years. We performed a 9.3-year cohort study of 946 men and 1327 women with no history of diabetes who underwent Exam 1 and Exam 2 (between 1997 and 1999). Participants were stratified by sex and median WC at Exam 1, and, in each stratum, participants were further classified into three categories by tertile of WC change per year between Exam 1 and Exam 2. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for type 2 diabetes incidence were calculated by Cox proportional hazard models. The endpoints were first diagnosis of type 2 diabetes or March 2011. RESULTS: During follow-up, 287 participants developed type 2 diabetes. In both sexes with median WC or higher, participants in the highest tertile of WC change had a significantly higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Multivariable adjusted HRs were 1.84 (95% CI, 1.10-3.08) in men and 2.30 (95% CI, 1.31-4.04) in women. No significant association was observed among participants with WC below median. CONCLUSIONS: Preventing WC gain is important in preventing type 2 diabetes in the Japanese population, especially among individuals with a relatively high WC.

Cost-effectiveness of behavioural counselling intervention compared with non-intervention for adult patients with metabolic syndrome to prevent cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes in Japan: a microsimulation modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: Nationwide lifestyle intervention-specific health guidance (SHG) in Japan-employs counselling and education to change unhealthy behaviours that contribute to metabolic syndrome, especially obesity or abdominal obesity. We aimed to perform a model-based economic evaluation of SHG in a low participation rate setting. DESIGN: A hypothetical population, comprised 50 000 Japanese aged 40 years who met the criteria of the SHG, used a microsimulation using the Markov model to evaluate SHG's cost-effectiveness compared with non-SHG. This hypothetical population was simulated over a 35-year time horizon. SETTING: SHG is conducted annually by all Japanese insurers. OUTCOME MEASURES: Model parameters, such as costs and health outcomes (including quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs), were based on existing literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated from the healthcare payer's perspective. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty around the model input parameters. RESULTS: The simulation revealed that the total costs per person in the SHG group decreased by JPY53 014 (US$480) compared with that in the non-SHG group, and the QALYs increased by 0.044, wherein SHG was considered the dominant strategy despite the low participation rates. PSA indicated that the credibility intervals (2.5th-97.5th percentile) of the incremental costs and the incremental QALYs with the SHG group compared with the non-SHG group were -JPY687 376 to JPY85 197 (-US$6226 to US$772) and -0.009 to 0.350 QALYs, respectively. Each scenario analysis indicated that programmes for improving both blood pressure and blood glucose levels among other risk factors for metabolic syndrome are essential for improving cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that even small effects of counselling and education on behavioural modification may lead to the prevention of acute life-threatening events and chronic diseases, in addition to the reduction of medication resulting from metabolic syndrome, which results in cost savings.

Common Carotid Artery Stenosis Degree as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Disease in a General Population: The Suita Study.

BACKGROUND: The utility of screening for the degree of common carotid artery (CCA) stenosis as a predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a general population remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 4775 Japanese men and women whose CCA was measured using bilateral carotid ultrasonography at baseline (April 1994-August 2001). We calculated the degree of stenosis as a percentage of the stenotic area of the lumen in the cross-section perpendicular to the long axis. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs for incident CVD and its subtypes according to the degree of CCA stenosis. During the median 14.2 years of follow-up, 385 incident CVD events (159 coronary heart disease and 226 stroke) were documented. The degree of CCA stenosis was associated with increased risks of incident CVD, coronary heart disease, and stroke, with multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for <25%, 25%-49%, and ≥50% stenosis with plaque compared with no CCA plaque of 1.37 (1.07-1.76), 1.72 (1.23-2.40), and 2.49 (1.69-3.67), respectively. Adding the CCA stenosis degree to traditional CVD risk factors increased Harrell's C statistics (0.772 [95% CI, 0.751-0.794] to 0.778 [95% CI, 0.758-0.799]; P=0.04) and improved the 10-year risk prediction ability (integrated discrimination improvement, 0.0129 [95% CI, 0.0078-0.0179]; P<0.001; continuous net reclassification improvement, 0.1598 [95% CI, 0.0297-0.2881]; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The degree of CCA stenosis may be used as a predictive marker for the development of CVD in the general population.

Sex Differences in Bleeding Risk Associated With Antithrombotic Therapy Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

Background: Antithrombotic therapy is crucial for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but women with CVD may face increased bleeding complications post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) under antithrombotic therapy. However, women are often underrepresented in clinical trials in this field, so evidence for sex-specific recommendations is lacking. Methods and Results: A search on PubMed was conducted for English-language articles addressing bleeding complications and antithrombotic therapy in women. Despite women potentially showing higher baseline platelet responsiveness than men, the clinical implications remain unclear. Concerning antiplatelet therapy post-PCI, although women have an elevated bleeding risk in the acute phase, no sex differences were observed in the chronic phase. However, women require specific considerations for factors such as age, renal function, and weight when determining the dose and duration of antiplatelet therapy. Regarding anticoagulation post-PCI, direct oral anticoagulants may pose a lower bleeding risk in women compared with warfarin. Concerning triple antithrombotic therapy (TAT) post-PCI for patients with atrial fibrillation, there is a lack of evidence on whether sex differences should be considered in the duration and regimen of TAT. Conclusions: Recent findings on sex differences in post-PCI bleeding complications did not provide enough evidence to recommend specific therapies for women. Further studies are needed to address this gap and recommend optimal antithrombotic therapy post-PCI for women.

The association between the estimated glomerular filtration rate and cognitive impairment: the Suita Study.

This cross-sectional study investigated the association between the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a measure of chronic kidney disease (CKD), and cognitive impairment. We used data from 6215 Japanese individuals registered in the Suita Study. Cognitive impairment was defined as a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score of ≤ 26. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of cognitive impairment for eGFR 45-59.9 and < 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 (mild and moderate-to-severe eGFR reductions) compared to eGFR ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (normal eGFR). The results showed that both mild and moderate-to-severe eGFR reductions were associated with cognitive impairment: ORs (95% CIs) = 1.49 (1.22-1.83) and 2.35 (1.69-3.26), respectively (p-trend < 0.001). Each increment of eGFR by 10 mL/min/1.73m2 was associated with 4.8% lower odds of cognitive impairment. In conclusion, eGFR reduction was associated with cognitive impairment. Managing CKD is essential for preventing cognitive impairment.

Predicting incident heart failure from population-based nationwide electronic health records: protocol for a model development and validation study.

INTRODUCTION: Heart failure (HF) is increasingly common and associated with excess morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Treatment of HF can alter the disease trajectory and reduce clinical events in HF. However, many cases of HF remain undetected until presentation with more advanced symptoms, often requiring hospitalisation. Predicting incident HF is challenging and statistical models are limited by performance and scalability in routine clinical practice. An HF prediction model implementable in nationwide electronic health records (EHRs) could enable targeted diagnostics to enable earlier identification of HF. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will investigate a range of development techniques (including logistic regression and supervised machine learning methods) on routinely collected primary care EHRs to predict risk of new-onset HF over 1, 5 and 10 years prediction horizons. The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)-GOLD dataset will be used for derivation (training and testing) and the CPRD-AURUM dataset for external validation. Both comprise large cohorts of patients, representative of the population of England in terms of age, sex and ethnicity. Primary care records are linked at patient level to secondary care and mortality data. The performance of the prediction model will be assessed by discrimination, calibration and clinical utility. We will only use variables routinely accessible in primary care. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Permissions for CPRD-GOLD and CPRD-AURUM datasets were obtained from CPRD (ref no: 21_000324). The CPRD ethical approval committee approved the study. The results will be submitted as a research paper for publication to a peer-reviewed journal and presented at peer-reviewed conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION DETAILS: The study was registered on Clinical Trials.gov (NCT05756127). A systematic review for the project was registered on PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42022380892).

Combination of coronary CT angiography, FFRCT , and risk factors in the prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients suspected CAD.

BACKGROUND: To examine the utility of fractional flow reserve by coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography (FFRCT ) for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS: This was a nationwide multicenter prospective cohort study including consecutive 1187 patients aged 50-74 years with suspected CAD and had available coronary CT angiography (CCTA). In patients with ≥50% coronary artery stenosis (CAS), FFRCT was further analyzed. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the association of FFRCT and cardiovascular risk factors with incident MACE within 2 years. RESULTS: Among 933 patients with available information on MACE within 2 years after enrollment, the incidence rate of MACE was higher in 281 patients with CAS than in those without CAS (6.11 vs. 1.16 per 100 patient-year). In 241 patients with CAS, the Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that FFRCT as well as diabetes mellitus and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level were independently associated with incident MACE. Moreover, the hazard ratio was significantly higher in patients harboring all three factors compared to those harboring 0-2 of the three factors (6.01; 95% confidence interval: 2.77-13.03). CONCLUSIONS: Combinatorial assessment using CCTA for stenosis, FFRCT , and risk factors was useful for more accurate prediction of MACE in patients with suspected CAD. Among patients with CAS, those with lower FFRCT , diabetes mellitus, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level were at highest risk for MACE during the 2-year period following enrollment.

Impact of a national screening programme on obesity and cardiovascular risk factors.

AIMS: The benefits of nationwide screening and tailored health guidance on improving obesity and cardiovascular risk factors is uncertain. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association of the national health screening and tailored health guidance with population health outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: A fuzzy regression discontinuity design analysed data of men and women aged 40-74 years who participated in a nationwide health screening programme in Japan from 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2019 and were recorded in the Japanese National Database. Exposure was assignment to the national health guidance of counselling on healthy lifestyle and clinical follow-up for individuals found to have waist circumference ≥85 cm for men ≥90 cm for women with one or more cardiovascular risk factors during annual national health screening. The primary outcomes were changes in obesity status and cardiovascular risk factors 1 year after screening. Of 3 490 112 men and 2 328 929 women, the assignment to the health guidance resulted in small reductions in obesity parameters: waist circumference; men, -0.27 cm [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.29 to -0.26]; women -0.34 (-0.41 to -0.27); body mass index, -0.07 kg/m2 (-0.075 to -0.066); -0.11 kg/m2 (-0.13 to -0.10); weight, -0.21 kg (-0.22 to -0.19); -0.28 kg (-0.32 to -0.24) that attenuated over time. Short-term improvements were also observed in blood pressure, haemoglobin A1c, fasting glucose and triglycerides across both sexes. CONCLUSION: A nationwide health screening programme was associated with only small, and transient improvements in obesity and cardiovascular risk factors.

In this national cohort of 5 819 041 men and women in Japan, we provide robust evidence that nationwide assignment to the health guidance resulted in only a small reduction in obesity parameters in men and women which was lost within only a few years. Exposure to the health guidance also failed to lead to long-term changes in cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle behaviours. Japan is the only country with large populace across the globe that provides the annual prevention programme, and thus this study renders unique results of international importance.

Significance of coronary artery calcification for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events: results from the NADESICO study in Japan.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the usefulness and sex differences of assessment of coronary artery calcification (CAC) with cardiovascular risk factors and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in Japanese patients. METHODS: In a nationwide, multicenter, prospective cohort study, 1187 patients with suspected coronary artery disease who underwent coronary computed tomography were enrolled. MACE included cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization, and hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or aortic disease. The concordance (C)-statistics were used to assess the relationships among the Suita risk score, CAC score, and incident MACE, with emphasis on sex differences. RESULTS: The final analysis included 982 patients (mean age, 64.7 ±â€¯6.6 years; male patients, 53.9 %). MACE developed in 65 male and 21 female patients during a median follow-up of 1480 days. The C-statistics calculated using Suita score for MACE were 0.650, 0.633, and 0.569 in overall, male, and female patients, respectively. In overall patients, the C-statistic significantly increased in combined models of Agatston CAC scores of ≥100, 200, 300, or 400 and the Suita score. In each sex, the C-statistics significantly increased in the model that added an Agatston CAC score of ≥100 and ≥200 (+0.049 and +0.057) in male patients, and ≥400 (+0.119) in females, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Adding assessment of Agatston CAC scores to Suita score was useful to improve the predictive ability for future MACE in Japanese patients. Agatston CAC scores of ≥100 or 200 in male and ≥400 in female patients in addition to Suita score improved the MACE risk prediction.

Incident cardiovascular, renal, metabolic diseases and death in individuals identified for risk-guided atrial fibrillation screening: a nationwide cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Risk-guided atrial fibrillation (AF) screening may be an opportunity to prevent adverse events in addition to stroke. We compared events rates for new diagnoses of cardio-renal-metabolic diseases and death in individuals identified at higher versus lower-predicted AF risk. METHODS: From the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset, 2 January 1998-30 November 2018, we identified individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF. The risk of AF was estimated using the FIND-AF (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation) risk score. We calculated cumulative incidence rates and fit Fine and Gray's models at 1, 5 and 10 years for nine diseases and death adjusting for competing risks. RESULTS: Of 416 228 individuals in the cohort, 82 942 were identified as higher risk for AF. Higher-predicted risk, compared with lower-predicted risk, was associated with incident chronic kidney disease (cumulative incidence per 1000 persons at 10 years 245.2; HR 6.85, 95% CI 6.70 to 7.00; median time to event 5.44 years), heart failure (124.7; 12.54, 12.08 to 13.01; 4.06), diabetes mellitus (123.3; 2.05, 2.00 to 2.10; 3.45), stroke/transient ischaemic attack (118.9; 8.07, 7.80 to 8.34; 4.27), myocardial infarction (69.6; 5.02, 4.82 to 5.22; 4.32), peripheral vascular disease (44.6; 6.62, 6.28 to 6.98; 4.28), valvular heart disease (37.8; 6.49, 6.14 to 6.85; 4.54), aortic stenosis (18.7; 9.98, 9.16 to 10.87; 4.41) and death from any cause (273.9; 10.45, 10.23 to 10.68; 4.75). The higher-risk group constituted 74% of deaths from cardiovascular or cerebrovascular causes (8582 of 11 676). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals identified for risk-guided AF screening are at risk of new diseases across the cardio-renal-metabolic spectrum and death, and may benefit from interventions beyond ECG monitoring.

Blood pressure per the 2017 ACC/AHA and 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines and heart failure risk: the Suita Study.

Hypertension is a significant risk factor for heart failure (HF). Since hypertension definition varies across guidelines, identifying blood pressure (BP) categories that should be targeted to prevent HF is required. We, therefore, investigated the association between hypertension per the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and 2018 European Society of Cardiology/European Society of Hypertension (ESC/ESH) guidelines and HF risk. This prospective cohort study included randomly selected 2809 urban Japanese people from the Suita Study. Cox regression was used to assess HF risk, in the form of hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), for different BP categories in both guidelines, compared to a reference category defined as systolic BP (SBP) <120 mmHg and diastolic BP (DBP) <80 mmHg. Within 8 years of median follow-up, 339 HF cases were detected. Per the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines, hypertension I and II and isolated systolic hypertension were associated with increased HF risk: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.81 (1.33-2.47), 1.68 (1.24-2.27), and 1.64 (1.13-2.39), respectively. Per the 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines, high-normal BP, hypertension I, II, and III, and isolated systolic hypertension were associated with increased HF risk: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.88 (1.35-2.62), 1.57 (1.13-2.16), 2.10 (1.34-3.29), 2.57 (1.15-5.77), and 1.51 (1.04-2.19), respectively. In conclusion, hypertension and isolated systolic hypertension per the 2017 ACC/AHA and 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines and high-normal BP per the 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines are risk factors for HF.

Inequalities in care delivery and outcomes for myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and aortic stenosis in the United Kingdom.

Cardiovascular diseases are a leading cause of death and disability globally, with inequalities in burden and care delivery evident in Europe. To address this challenge, The Lancet Regional Health-Europe convened experts from a range of countries to summarise the current state of knowledge on cardiovascular disease inequalities across Europe. This Series paper presents evidence from nationwide secondary care registries and primary care healthcare records regarding inequalities in care delivery and outcomes for myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and aortic stenosis in the National Health Service (NHS) across the United Kingdom (UK) by age, sex, ethnicity and geographical location. Data suggest that women and older people less frequently receive guideline-recommended treatment than men and younger people. There are limited publications about ethnicity in the UK for the studied disease areas. Finally, there is inter-healthcare provider variation in cardiovascular care provision, especially for transcatheter aortic valve implantation, which is associated with differing outcomes for patients with the same disease. Providing equitable care is a founding principle of the UK NHS, which is well positioned to deliver innovative policy responses to reverse observed inequalities. Understanding differences in care may enable the implementation of appropriate strategies to mitigate differences in outcomes.